₦airaland Forum

essentialone:
What is the origin and meaning of the phrase, "Afolabi units"?

How time flies! Make I go ask him self?

pluto09:
This is one one the reasons why we want you to be more regular here sir.
Your inputs are invaluable.

Abeg let me enjoy my newbie status in peace ooo

Happy 63rd Independence in advance

crownprince2017:
Concerning presco, the product price is yet to go up as we are just leaving the harvest period for palm karnel, I mean the main raw materials for pam oil. The product is still much in supply compared to the period when it's only the suppliers that kept their own during this time will have for sale then, when the the demand will be more than supply and price will skyrocket.

End of the year is the pick for palm oil business when more profit are made, atleast 35-40 for non manufacturers.

Downward trend is normal at this regarding that business.

You make money from quantity perspective during the harvest period and make alot during the scarcity.

From the micro economics point of view, you can never make less than 30% ROI in that business.

I will try and work on the Ta of this company because am just aware of it for the first time.

I have few 100s waiting for that time too.

What have you learnt about PRESCO?

You know that PRESCO borrowed money and spent N25bn to acquire a non profitable farm owned by their majority shareholder?

Are you aware that after pocketing N25bn same SIAT is now trying to divest from PRESCO?

There are FACTS behind the figures so don't get carried away with figures without understanding the facts behind it.

Not a BUY or SELL recomemndation please.

jideflash:
If i talk about newbies learning the ropes and not just seeking for stockpicks, they will say im proud. Experience and research matters alot.

If not for greed or gamble, why will you put all your fund into oando that has no financial result to base investing decision on.

Lets say he bought 32m naira worth of oando at high of 15naira. With the fall, he will still have like 16m. Just that he hasnt gotten a buyer to sell to.

If I make 32m from Gambling why will I not use the 32m to gamble again?

Those saying he should have bought dividend paying stocks, did he make 32m by buying dividend paying stocks?

Someone that bought JaPaul GOLD should be ready to LOSE all his money.

Anyway, 32m school fees is not too much to pay for education.

I am sure he will make another 32m soon!

Deadlytruth:
The response is on the premise that one could accurately time the market as the other monicker suggested, and that is why I mentioned clairvoyance.

I am violently agreeing with you sir!

Those with such ability should be competing with Buffet

It is always interesting when people focus on money to be made when prices go up but IGNORE the possibility of losses when prices go down. A lot of crypto mentality of quick money to be made at play. People tend to forget that the ORIGINAL design of the capital market is to create access to capital market.

When you join people trading you did not ask what percentage of their capital are they using. You joined using your entire capital and now you are complaining.

When people were using less than 0.0001% of their portfolio to buy OandO and shouting 100% profit. You also joined with 100% of your portfolio and now that almost 50% loss is starring you at the face you are angry! Angry with who? Were you planning to share the profit with anyone? Why do you expect anyone to share in your pain or misery!

There is always upside and downside risks. Know how you will manage both and Know PEACE

This is still September. New academic session has just started. NSE (sorry now NGX) is collecting school fees!

Kindly pay your fees quietly and don't disturb anyone.

Men are known when the BEARS appear

Eku market ooo

Deadlytruth:
But the challenge is to be able to know ahead the exact order and time in which the stocks will rally, i.e to know which exactly will come after which. If I were blessed with such clairvoyance it will take me only three years on NSE to become a billionaire.

In 3 years you should be aiming to beat Warren Buffet!

That people still believe they can time the market is one of the wonders

E ku market ooo

E ku gambling oo

E ku BULLISH run ooo

Streetinvestor2:
Oga at the Top.In the past I think you advocated that high oil price is good for our market. And an indicator for bull,I hope that has not changed. This one you show face.what should we be expecting. I know this government is doing you well,anything for your boys,lol

I am loyal to your government. High oil price will favour some. However it is negative to others (increase opex for them)

Overall things looking up. Enjoy the ROLL

Laso09:
Welcome back.
What is your thoughts on the bogus profit being declared by the banks?

Bogus? Not really. Significant impairment also. I think the banks are prudent.

Basically their dollar position is helping.

Eku market ooo

Market is up. Everyone is happy. We are all experts now

Let's be prepared for when the bears will show up oo

E ku market ooo

Happy New year in advance

yMcy56:
OANDO
Outstanding results don land oo
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36191_OANDO_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2019_FINANC.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36195_OANDO_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2020_FI.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36197_OANDO_PLC%20_QUARTER_2_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2020_FI.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36198_OANDO_PLC%20_QUARTER_3_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2020_FI.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36199_OANDO_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2020_FINA.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36200_OANDO_PLC%20OANDO_PLC_%20_2020_UAFS_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36201_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2022.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36192_OANDO_PLC%20OANDO_PLC_%20_AFS_2019_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_.pdf

Ocean and Oil That's the stock to BUY

ololufemi:
My dear brother @emmasoft, all through my several posts, I never mentioned that they are illegal o. I just highlighted how they have been used in unethical ways by some investors to get away with abusing its application for personal gains on such deals without considering the effect on retail investors.

The bank issue you mentioned regarding loans is also an unethical way that a lot of people have used to rob banks and make investors and stakeholders suffer losses.

My point highlights the unethical behaviour which clearly differs from illegal ones.

An illegal deed is always UNETHICAL. In most climes unethical bahaviours are illegal. However in some situations an unethical behaviours can be legal. Cheating on your spouse is unethical but not illegal

In this case it is legal and nothing unethical in crossdeals or off market deals.

Mpeace:
Presco being punished for poor dividend.
Fullest bid at 180.
They gave only N6.60 despite an Eps of N19.32.
For a N200 stock. The dividend is just about 3% dividend yield almost same with transcorp at 2%.
Some of our indigenous companies are just too greedy and stingy with dividends.

PRESCO should not be paying this much dividend considering the level of debt!

Current price is suppose to reflect FUTURE growth.

Mpeace:
No body said seplat is a bad company. We only advised that seplat be cautious in loans and acquisitions. Too much aggressive investments in bullish period is not too good.
Remember First bank almost collapsed because one CEO(Bisi Olasanya) decided in time of high oil prices, to give out too many loans to oil companies without due diligence.
Mind you, The said CEO was an experienced hand in the field of banking. He wanted to make huge profit for the bank thus his decision to give out more loans to the oil industry. FBNH has not fully recovered from the repercussions even as we noted that only a few banks would have survived that experience.

Check out the loan book of SEPLAT vs their reserves. Check their reserve replacement ratio. That's all what you need to know.

sellydion:
I dont think so. Oando was rather unfortunate.

Unfortunate? How? Scamming investors?

Mpeace:
But they need to be careful so they don't chew more than they can swallow lest they end up choking in debts like oando.

Why are you comparing sleep with death? Comparing OandO with SEPLAT? Infra dignitatem

Agbalowomeri:
It's inexperience that will make you to be chasing a hot stock. By the time your offer is filled, it would probably be end of that bull round. One thing is certain, other opportunities will show up. You must understand that you are also competing with your stockbrokers. To win the game, you must be ahead of them i.e. be comfortably sited in the bus before they identify it.

PEACE

Jesus learnt obedience from the things which He suffered

Worse if he is chasing an illiquid stock.

ositadima1:
2021 ended in a loss due to huge increase (about 6 billions more than d previous year) in cost of sales. If we dig deeper, the increase was from consumables (aircraft spare parts seems to be d major culprit). Doesn't look like a recurring expense to me, maybe I am wrong.

That said, trading at 76.7% percent below book value is not sustainable, I see it going no where but up in the long run.

I expect revenues to drop as they have lost some contracts already. I will be careful of going that route. Look at the FACTS behind the figures.

emmanuelewumi:
Primrose is owned by the family. It is the investment vehicle of Pa Subomi Balogun and his family

FCMB building is called Primrose Towers.

The owners of FCMB owns PRIMROSE

yMcy56:
FCMB
Director's Dealings ........
* Primrose Investment Limited has been acquiring stakes in FCMB since last year........
* No disclosure yet on the previous huge deals @3.75.....
* We'll know the Oga and the motive behind this ax time goes on....

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/66_FCMB_-_Notification_to_NSE_of_purchase_of_shares_by_related_Party_-_FCMB_Trustees_ltd_FCMB_ESOP.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/66_FCMB_-_Notification_to_NSE_of_purchase_of_shares_by_related_Party_-_Primrose_Investments_Limited.pdf

I hope you know the owner of PRIMROSE?

petaling:
It seems you are newbie here as I just started seeing your name here. My advice is don't make any insurance coy one of your largest holding as those guys can burn your fingers. Insurance coys are good for jijo but not long term.

Thanks for the counsel. Will definitely make use of it in any future purchases. Well appreciated.

When I grow up I want to be like you.

Willing to learn at the masters feet. You can be sure that I will be a good student. Mentor me sir

husu:
@Wanajo, I salute. This husu. What of our guys, Wendi Wendi, samstone, father of 2, puming77, and co? Can you tell me more about your portfolios from then till now. I know you're a long term trader. Meanwhile, conoil is also into producing. They are in the upstream and downstream. Likewise total.

Thanks.

Basically you win some and lose some. Just ensure that your winners are more than your losers.

I have moved from when FBN and GTB were my biggest holdings to now where NEM, SEPLAT and United Capital are my biggest holdings.

All in all, it has being an interesting ride and I am better off now than then.

RabbiDoracle:
It is simple maths.

Naira goes from say N360 to N590, this is 39% devaluation loss.

If I brought in $1m and invested in an asset that rose from N2 to N12 (e.g UCAP) , let's break it down:

At $1= N360, my fund is N360m.

Excluding fees, I get 180m units of UCAP.

Sell at average of N12 and I get N2.16B excluding fees.

That is 500% gain in naira value.

Now exchange rate is $1= N590,

Final fund will be $3.66m, increase of 266% in dollar value.

This excludes dividends from the stock which when added beats devaluation of the currency.

Questions :
-Are you not basing your assumptions on hindsight( it has already happened)
-How do you find similar asset that is yet to attain such price like UCAP?
- If there are controls, how do you take your funds out?

1st question : Use foresight, research to find the new multi-baggers

2nd question : look around and you will see value. There are people whose job is to forecast possible selling price targets.

3rd question: Leave story.

What you've left out is the TIME element! Can you wait for the price to move from N2 to N15? How many people have the stamina to wait that long? How many people can withstand the dips that occur during that period without selling in a panic?

onegentleguy:
By the way, that part in italics when implemented, I think, should be good news to a coy like CAVERTON.

I hope it comes down to <N1 before then though.

It is well.

My Oga, the 'lifting' will not benefit anyone apart from SEPLAT. What that contract meant is that SEPLAT will SELL its crude to CHEVRON at the CHEVRON terminal at ESCRAVOS.

SEPLAT have a more expensive export option that they use. They barge their crude with security export.

ukay2:
Thanks onegentleguy

Just thinking that TOTAL and COINOIL are in downstream while SEPLAT is in upstream?

Correct. They are really very different!

onegentleguy:
Digging further into the financial print of SEPLAT, I can sense that aside it's Nos, the coys current price rise beyond what I believe should be a FVE could quite possibly be news driven.

3 things...
• The plan to restructure and create alternative lines of oil lifting to help curb the present below capacity production levels and a possible transitioning to more profit-oriented assets to improve on the coys EM and AER and reduce CBR.

• An agreement to sell seplet energy shares for a net figure of $55M to one of it's JV partners. (this might not be unconnected to the dilutive effect on present EPS/EM levels)

• The likely completion of the acquisition of
Mobil Producing Unlimited, Nigeria (MPNU)

All this before the end of this yr.

That said, the coys current FP infers that risk is slightly ahead of the combination of reward and price.
So I still maintain my FVE as previously stated. (ref: N971.29)
...H1, 2022 will help clarify its value accretive potential relative to CMP.

Inference:
There are better coys to permute from the exchange right now.
If you must stay put with SEPLAT, then ensure your a trader/TA expert that understand the coys present trend, otherwise keep a very close track on it's Nos if your a long term investor.

Again, NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence still applies as always.

Enough said.

The alternative oil lifting (Amukpe - Escravos pipeline) is to primarily provide alternative export that reduces the reconciliation losses. Little to do with below capacity production levels. Basically, if you produce 100,000 barrels the terminal at Forcados (current export route) may receive only 50,000 barrels so the rest is LOST. That's what Tony Elumelu was crying about that led to the force Majeure declared at Bonny Terminal.

SEPLAT is selling a field that is considered uneconomical for them to produce. Little to do with any dilutive shares.

onegentleguy:
A line of disclosure...

Looking at the financial print of SEPLAT, I would prefer to sell/exit if I hold a stake therein.
Though current mkt trend and its sector dynamic is on a rising path, the coys last 2 financial print describes a position of accelerating risk ahead of feasible reward. (risk-reward margin benchmarked against CMP)

Using a mix of valuation model that discounts a fairly appreciable surrounding risk but attaches a generous growth margin in 2022 giving the favourable sector dynamic (ref: 0.15x/15% TTM... compounded run rate to YE), my FVE pegs @ approx N971.29.
...the coys last closing peg of N1,200 already equates to an over 23.5% premium.

Rating: Underweight (previous: Hold)

I would rather be friends with Mr[b] TOTAL and CONOIL than SEPLAT[/b] giving their CMPs.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
My advice? Pls follow your instinct.

#Edited

Interesting that you are comparing downstream companies with an upstream company.

First thing you look for when analysing an upstream company is the Reserve/Replacement ratio. That's the key reason why SEPLAT went for the Exxon Mobil acquisition

TOTAL and CONOIL are basically a trading/marketing companies. SEPLAT is an upstream company with different risk.

Biafran4life:
If my personal income tax for the year from my business is #50.Then I declare my dividend income with a WHT of #50..Can they now give me a tax receipt/certificate of #100

Sorry for replying late.

Yes the certificate will be for the total tax you paid

Biafran4life:
It did not drop from uba rather the registrar which is APR.Uba dividend is still in front ,april. Ucap is a different company from uba bank.

The registrar will have UBA as its bank. So the transaction alert will be from UBA bank

Biafran4life:
The one taken from company will be termed as cooperate tax.My concern has been why won't board of internal revenue add the amount to an individual as part of your personal income tax receipt since it is deducted from personal income

It is added. The WHT is the final tax. If you declare your dividend in your Personal Income Tax the dividend will not be taxed again.