₦airaland Forum

Nothing disappointing about the GTB result. It was not below expectation in any way. Wait for the Q3 result. That's when you start to see what is cooking. Though not too bullish about GTB (they hardly fiddle with their share price), but it is a fundamentally sound growth stock. Second largest in my portfolio after FBN.

First Bank is set for big things. I see them hitting a FY PAT of about N35b. That should take the price to about 50.00. If the IIL return money is through, that is extra N10bn extra ordinary income. If they decide to sell part of tehir stake in Celtel, that is another N5bn. So going forward, First Bank is it. Not even mentioning the benefit of the last PO.

Access, what can I say? For the first time I borrowed money to buy the IPO. WHy? It was undervalued. Can remember when people were talking about them cooking up books. Now we know better.

Nigerian German is on course. Solid company. Little float so will always hold its own even in a bear market. Major attraction is the benefit that will accrue from the oil services subsidiary. High margin business that is favoured by the local content policy.

Chellarams also is doing fine.

Watch out for BOC and Vitafoam. They will be the first to release result in the new year.

WAPCO, solid company. Little growth. Possibility of a bonus is very slim.

Insurance companies will still do well. However, until the full figures are out, I say HOLD. Those guys have zero corporate governance. For those talking about AIICO, do you know that they did a PO not too long ago? Do you know that they acquired some companies? Have you seen the scheme of merger?

On Universe Re, be careful! This is a company that did not meet NAICOM requirement. I suspect that the private Placment going on now is an extension of the initial unsuccesful private placement. What happens if you subscribe and NAICOM withdraws the license. Think about those that bought the IPO of All States Trus Bank.

IBTC is over valued. Just waiting for it to reach the 20.00 mark. Definitely there are better options out there.

As per buying offers through your brothers, sisters etc, not a tidy arrangement. What if they are also interested in buying. For me, easy way out is to incorporate a company with you and your spouse as the owners if you are married. You can have many of them and use that as your investment vehicle. Yes you will bear a ONCE and for all cost of incorporation and that is all. No commission to any broker. ANother advantage is that your identity is hidden. Verification of certificates etc is a lot easier. Just put a seal on the letter to the registrar and that is all. I see that as a more tidy way of handling teh problem of over subscription.

On Transcorp the problems are many. Major problem is funding for the turn around. With the unsuccesful PO, the funds rae not there. Option is to go for more debt which means that the shareholders will wait much longer for benefits.

Transcorp over paid for NITEL so if the sale is reversed no real problem apart from sentiments. They can put that money to better use but expect serious backlash.

Ololufemi, good idea but loaded with a lot of risks. Problem is trust when it comes to money. Blame culture and different risks profiles are part of the problems associated with investment clubs.

Frankiri mooted and I think started an investment club. People can latch on to that.

shigidi:
@ wanajo, by the way i just opened an account with AFRINVEST. they seem okay but there seems to be no contact with custmers. everything is done by e-mail and they send weekly recommendations, its kind of cold isnt it if theres no contact

You should have an account officer who you can contact depending on the kind of contact you want. Don't forget that they now have MANY customers to attend to. Being with them since 2001 and never being to their office.

Let me know who is your account officer and I can help move you to the 'best' account officer. You also need to know the contact of two other people that you can copy on your requests in case your account officer is not immediately available. You can also speak with them on the phone.

I will say UNITY BANK, SPRING BANK are part of the 3.

shigidi:
@ wanajo,
with the diamond gdr offer, do you still think diamond will be good to enter now, it will add almost 4 billion shares which will bring their eps down to 0.8 or 0.9. also, look at gtb, do u think the gdr will affect diamond that way i.e limited price appreciation as a result of the gdrs on lse been unable to move at par with the listed shares on nse
and oga wanajo, on crusader, e be liuke say u no see that result yesterday.

Firstly, GDR did not affect GTB. Liquidity did. No stock has really appreacited that much since then.

Diamond is still solid as far as I am concerned but not for short term trading.

Yes I saw the Crusader result but really it says nothing. You cannot just analyse figures without the facts behind it. Was a claim paid? Was it that the company was broken into bits and the results yet to be consolidated? Have they separated the life nad non life business of the company? You need to be sure of what led to the so called less in profitability especially since you have a growth in turnover. While I am not that excited about the insurance sector for now, I also do not support pressing the panic button.

shigidi:
@ easimoni, i sold crusader today. sold at 5.30 and that got me 15% after the commision, i no do again for now.
can't get beta glass though, were u able to get access by the way

You no get liver at all!!!! Why sell Crusader What has changed in its fundamentals?

Will sell my NGC give you at 28.00. Still at 24.00 now.

yodiyokun:
I seriously Doubt the POs will be oversubscribed.

First Bank has taught a lot of people sense.

Meanwhile, I believe the Market will be depressed in December - lets wait it out for 2 - 3 weeks and see what unfolds.


Abeg @all,

Anyone dealt with GTB registrars lately? I need to verify my GTB shares, and its giving me a bloody headache. Its in my maiden name and i don't have any I.d or Bank account in my maiden name.

What documents do they normally request for?

It's so annoying seriously it is.

Your PHYSICAL appearance may be needed. That was what my broker told me as per GTB registrar.

Well, try get a change of name sworn affidavit with the notice in the papers along with a bankers confirmation. Hopefully that will help. If not, come home for vacation and pay a visit to GTB registrar. Don't forget to introduce yourself as a majore shareholder of GTB.

BTW, the interim result of GTb is getting late. What is their problem?

Temmie10:
True talk, Taking profit is a perfectly economically right thing to do,
I don't understand the obsession/compulsion to always buy.
Wanajo, Easy with the humility abeg, where is the small boy?,
No be u scare me out of my seat yestada with that 5 million american dollars gist. still shocked

I just reported the info about the MTN deal. So because reporter dey cover the activities of the president does not mean that he is on the same level with the president OOOO. N areporter of news I be OOOO

yodiyokun:
No mind @Wanaj0,

Just being humble!.


Yes oooo whats up with the MTN gist, they want to chop from Naija Market as well  


I think the complusive buying is as a result of the hype and too much adrenaline.

But its better for my money to be looking than it to be reducing.

One of the arrangers said if people can pull US$100,000 together they can be accommodated. MTN is not rasing money. I think some shareholders are selling their stakes. Things will become clearer once the full prospectus is out. For you people in Canada, US$100,000 na small money for una with the free fall of the US$

Compulsive buying is because people always WRONGLY assume that price will always go UP. Unfortunately, that is not the case.I always tell people to enter the train while still parked at the station. Once it start moving, just wave it bye bye till it gets to the next station.

So look at your money till you find a GOOD opportunity. Don't listen to the hype. Don't follow the herd mentality.

yodiyokun:
This is sound advice for Insurance, I don't expect this trend to continue. I doubt next week will be this rosy.

Xmas is around the corner - people need money to celebrate.

The only issue is, if you sell now, what do you buy?

Buying even for long term now is not advisable, because entry price is steep. Flour Mills is already over N80.

Insurance companies are already taking a beating.

Must you buy when you sell? Is it a crime to keep and watch your cash? At least you can preserve your capital from losses even if you are not making gains!

If you are buying for long term, you are less worried about the daily fluntuations. Flour Mills is relatively stable. Being hovering between 73.00 and 82.00 for a while which is just about a band of 10%. No movement yet. By teh time the movement will start on those stocks (Dec/Jan), you will not be able to catch up with them.

tonyjon:
@ easimoni,

Thank you very much o o - a friend in need is a friend indeed. I really appreciate your advise. I did not forget STOCK FIELD MARSHAL WANAJ0 AND HIS ADVICE but I just want to know if there is another short cut to the whole thing. At least man must chop now.

Peace.

Who dash me? Abeg, I just dey learn for here OOOOOOOO. Na the guru's we supose dey call those BIG names.

We the boys go just continue to grow our wealth little by little.

BTW, if your cash is disturbing you and you cannot put it under your pillow, you can send it across to me.

I can see that a lot of people are worried that there is nothing to BUY. If you BUY and see a correction resulting in a loss of 25% in a week how would you feel?

Anyone buying now must be buying for the long term. Hence, you must go for fundamentally sound stocks. Flour Mills, Dangote and WAPCo comes to mind.

Nigerian German still moving on. 5% gain today in 16 deals with only 61,094 traded. Hopefully it will get to 28.00. Chellarams also is not slowing down. Now 9.34! Only 18,000 units traded in 1 deal!!!!

Hope NAHCO will get to 30.00 so that I can bail out. That is a seriously OVER VALUED stock. Same as Ecobank.

The insurance companies still have a lot of issues to sort out. I will stay clear for now. I will put a HOLD on them.

Access gained today. STill bullish on Diamond. First Bank is creeping up gradually.

For the short termers, better lock in some profit before a U turn is made.

shakasha:
Please whats the feeling of this wise house on Bagco shares? people are skeptical considering their huge debts but am thinking it's sweet on mid to long term.

Well, most stocks are good on the long term. The question should be that compared with other stocks out there, where will you put BAGCO? Are there not BETTER stocks out there? If you have a list of five stocks (medium and long term), will BAGCO be on the list?

We should get out of the feeling taht we must BUY all offers.

Have a N28.00 target for Nigerian German by Mid 2008. I expect a bonus next year. I am in it for the Long term though.

Fundamentals for me should be the key word now. So Flour Mills, Dangote Sugar, WAPCo, Diamond are teh stocks on my BUY list

shigidi:
@ toybanj, access is expensive at 20. im hoping it will bleed and lose some fat tomorrow

Will sell my Nigerian German to you.

Hope you are watching Longman

Just confirmed that MTNI and some Nigerian shareholders are selling offering the shares for sale via private placment. Not sure the details are firmed up. Minimum is $10m for financial institutions and $5m for others. Total amount is in the range of $300m and $1bn. IBTC to be the issuing house. Offer to open 7th of December. Prospectus also not yet out.

Trustees will be formed by most companies to pool resources together and form an investment vehicle

aktopgun:
$2 million is a bit steep for individuals but could be done as a collective. any takers?
wanajo, can u reveal your source or would you rather not?

can u say how believable it is though

Private placement is meant for high networth individuals. So the $2m is not way out. Hopefully, a group of people can come together to raise the minimum requirement.

My source I think is reliable. Will wait till I get more info. My source claims to get the info from the arranger of the private placement.

toyibanj:
oga Wanaj0,
Where have you been? what do you have to say about all the bad news coming out today, crusader, cadbury e.t.c. You did warn people to be careful about the insurance sector
How do we move forward? Stock up on cash?

It is not illegal to keep your money!!!!! It is not everytime that you have to BUY.

Insurance sector in Nigeria is very risky. The dearth of information is worrying. I would rather stick with insurance companies that I ahve enough info on. UNIC falls into this category.

Nothing special about Cadbury. Not on my BUY list.

Temmie10:
this is a real mouthwatering one o,
anybody with info on this bank breaking gist..did u jus say 2 million american dollars?

Yes I heard US$2m. Learnt will be listed in 2009

Learnt MTN is doing a private placement. $2m minimum. But people can team up together to buy. Anyone with more info?

Sorry for responding late to the queries. Can see that others are doing justice to issues raised.

UBA and First Bank buying into Transcorp? Not sure that is true. I think the banks are just converting their loans to equity.

First Bank to get N10bn (not N1.1bn) from the botched IIL deal. If that happens, the PAT of First Bank will be credited with an extra ordinary income of N10bn. Don't forget that First Bank wrote of that money in a single financial year. If this money is returned, then the price of First Bank will hit the roof tops!!!

Nigerian German is doing fine. Can still see headroom.

Longman and Beta Glass are not very liquid stock so be careful. Longman Q4 result is always very high. Don't forget it is a book publishing company. Q4 is the time when they make most sales. That's when schools are starting a new session. Hence the skewed nature of the earnings.

Insurance, be careful!!! The problem is not over. Except many court cases. The insurance consolidation is an example of how not to do things. I expect the current jubilation to be shortlived. Moreover, the current run is just out of excitement. The money is yet to be released!!!!! The list is the same 'initial' list but excluding NICON and Nigerian Re. I expect many more additions and subtractions as days go buy.

UNIC is good. Would like to see how they treated the non-life part of their business. Plan was to sell it but not sure who they sold it to.

For short term traders, be careful!!!!!!!

[quote author=Babs_O link=topic=93896.msg1685545#msg1685545 date=1195156784]Don't be confused. Looking at CNN website I see some very good PE's (between 10 and 18) quoted for some popular American companies and I wonder how bullish NSE is on some banks with PE's even above 50. It's all about diversifying if one can and and still grow.[/quote]The High PE is a reflection of the growth in teh economy. that's why looking at the PEG may be good also.

Geees:
Good idea but please do oyur research well before you go in notice the trend I would like to turn it to Law Union, Crusader, Unic i that order.

Cheers Wanaj0
However at the rate of growthof the NSE one day Leadway will need our money,
Waiting patiently and of course by then I would have some good money,
The Odukale's are good managers
Cheers

Leadway will rather get institutional investors. That I think is their strategy

Geees:
No worries but as i said before
More nigerians are buying and will buy cars and dunlop high profile is a tyre to beat for nigerian roads,
Just hope the boarders are tightened.
Profit they'll make
I prefer to find a coy buy into it and forget about it knowing that they'll make me smile in the long run, better than a mutual fund.

For Long term, Dunlop will do WELL.

crazyT:
@Wanaj0 and other Guru's


Based on the released result of Fidelity Bank, is it advisable to bail out immediately after TS? Fidelity it's about 45% of my portfolio, I bought at 10.60.

I'll like to turn the table around and makes Insurance coy 50% of my portfolio (it’s about 10% now)

Never liked Fidelity.

Insurance at 50% of your portfolio is a very skewed one. I expect banks to form close to 50% of most portfolios in Nigeria.

Well depending on your age and risk tolerance no problem. Just evaluate the risk. Moreover, note that Jimoh will fight to the end as per the insurance issue

Geees:
When you look at other methods of value investors,
* Good management
* Strategic business
* Good CONSISTENT profit margins

UNIC will beat MBenefits too,  UNIC is the biggest name in nigerian health insurance, Shonekan and Volker securities are doing well
To answer a few question of what the old will do asked in previous threads,
They get life insurance or health plans to enjoy according to Marslow's laws of needs,
So Insurance bring it on,
WHEN WILL LEADWAY AND IGI go public?
Cheers

Leadway public Forget it. IFC has invested their big time.

IGI, not sure what they are up to. Even the private placment is yet to be concluded

pumping777:
I think you misunderstand me.

I can only use the interim result that has been released to predict the next interim or full year result. This is what I am saying. I don't have to wait for the future t result to be declared before I take position. So I can only assess UNIC based on the Q-2 result they have so far declared. I can use this to predict Q-3 or full year. If there is a Q-3 outstanding it is immaterial. I don't have to wait forthis Q-3 result to take position. By then, the cat will be out of the bag.

Thanks for the clarification. Not good at understanding I guess

Geees:
Thanks Wanaj0 for this
May and B were on my radar mid year but could not explain why there were not responding, Well Insurance got me and am smiling now.
Any one seen what is happening to Dunlop Guys position now oh,

Dunlop will continue to oscillate. 2007 result cannot suatin the price. I see it settling at around 3.00 to 3.5 by Mid next year

yodiyokun:
WanaJ0,

In line with fact behind the figures, I was looking at May & Bakers 2006 Prospectus, and boy are they way off their PAT projections, and it dosent look like they will meet their projections for this year as well.

Was the offer over or under subscribed - trying to figure out the Outstanding shares and has the shares been listed on NSE this year?

Do you have any information on them, Honestly, I don't know how their price has been sustained at N11

May and Baker did an offer last year that was oversubscribed. Don't think they took the over subscription though. They refunded mone but used a funny method. All existing shareholders got what they applied for but everyother person got a prorated allocation.

Now because of the delay in the conclusion of the offer they did not get the money ontime.That basically affected the 2006 forecast. Also they are about changing the utilisation of the funds. Also, the Vaccine project seems to be delayed. However, it is a solid company for the future. I expect that the 2008 results will be encouraging. Right now, I will consider it over valued except you are in for the Long Term like me. Don't forget that it rose as high as 16.00 this year!

pumping777:
@no_shaking

Back to UNIC. You see, taking advantage of interim or full year results is one thing and taking advantage of price is another.

Based on UNIC Q-1 result alone I felt a price of N2.35 was too low for the stock so I already took position then at N2.40. If Unic comes out with an even better Q-3 result all the better. Maybe by then UNIC will be N5 . I will still be in the game. I don't like chasing a stock after the good results are released and everyone is doing the same.

This is why I prefer to use fundamentals as against aniticipating good interim or final year results. See where it got me with Oceanic

Thought result was part of the fundamentals!!!!!

On what basis will you consider a stock to be low if not based on the EPS/ PE? Those are forecasted/estimated based on interim or final results.

I agree that for long term investors, it is better to get in before others because you never know when the movements will start. So, I tend to make a pick and just stay there. When I was picking NGC at <13.00, I knew that 20.00 is not far for it and nothing stops it from reaching 25.00. But I don't have the crystall ball to say when that will happen! That is the crux of the whole matter. I am willing to stay in provided there is no significant change in the fundamentals.

For those out to amke 'quick' money, you cannot use this strategy because you don't have the patience.

WAPCo, Dangote Sugar and Flour Mills are blue chip stocks that are trading below ther value. They will sooner or later take a lift but WHEN? Oando is another one but it is being limited by lack of deregulation and fairs about corporate gorvernance.

crazyT:
@ Wanaj0 and kpineo


Is it true that M Benefits will be going on PO very soon?

Don't know but I will not be surprised. Not among the insurance companies on my radar.

kpineo:
According to the NigerianSecurities website UNIC has a proj PE of 19.88, while MBenefit has 18.33 and the industry average is 21.94, so y all the interest in UNIC and not MBenefit. Also MBenefit own 25% of Abbey mortgages which is a player in the next emerging sector in the nigeria economy. people what am i missing before hard earned funds disappear right before my very eyes.

I tend to look at the facts behind the figures. Don't know much about MB. Not sure of any startegic plans that they have. For UNIC, I know a bit about them. They are leaders in health insurance with their UNIC Health. They are also into emergency rescue with CRI. Added to that is the planned club/recreation centre that they are building at VGC.

UNIC is also one of the few companies that cleaned their accounts a couple of years ago. Also love the board (Shonekan is on th board and a major investor)

yodiyokun:
Leave that yeye MD--- sebi he resigned from WEMA initially to be the Deputy Gov, he is not a new blood per se ooo. But you hit the mail in the head, you bought Wema , at 3.53, crucial point. Entry point is always important.

For me to enter at N10 was definitely a higher risk for me.

He resigned to take up a political appointment.

The gist that I heard was that Kola Ayeye was to be the MD of Wema but he turned them down. He was the MD of National bank before the merger but he was discriminated against on the basis of age. His refusal threw the board into confusion thus making them to force the governer to release the current MD. They new they needed a turn around strategist and very few people fit that bill. Kola Ayeye is top on that list.

I learnt that Kola just took up an ED job with Oceanic now.

Well, heard multiple entries and exit. The last batch was bought around 8.60.

NAHCO is inching upwards now. Getting to a SELL point. Part of the over valued stocks but due to lack of float, may still be able to sustain the price.

WAPCo is worth looking at for those in it for the long term

yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

WEMA did not fall under this category.

To make the billionaire's club, you must have millions to invest na Abi, you be club member already?

Maybe for you, but for me WEMA did!!!!!

WEMA was undervalued (I bought @ 3.53). Wema had to go back and get a Deputy Governor to be their MD. They went through restructuring and rebranding. They cleaned up their books. So they were undervalued, had new management and set for growth. For me those are the companies to look at not those being hyped by the media.

You don't need millions to invest to join the millionaires club. You only need to start early.

Not there yet but that is a target. Actually, that was what got me interested in the capital market. The thought of being a billionaire without stealling or looting the treasury!

ololufemi:
Guys,

GT Bank broke the N30 resistance level today. Closed at N32.55

Sounds like something is cooking in there.

Are they about to declare their interim results and interim dividend.

I can smell something brewing

Easimoni, Pumping, Wanago, Roughcut, Amancheelie, YodiYokun can you smell it too.

YodiYokun please send the spreadsheet abeg.

Thanks

Yes, GTB's interim result is due and they will pay dividend but I don't expect the dividend to move up the price. Basically, with the Insurance funds being released, more money will come to the market. The PFA seems to be ready to invest also so expect a 'bullish' run. But you can be sure that what you are seeing now is 'artificial'. Some people are just playing the market. if you are not a 'market maker' and you are in for teh short term, you will get yourself burnt!!!!

Pumping, while I agree that a Q3 result evokes more confidence, be sure that you understand the company! Presco's 6months PAT result sometimes is more than the full year! In the days of the old UBA, some funny provisions just surfaced at end year that will almost wipe off the whole profit. Also, remember First Bank making N10bn provision in the last quarter for the IIL/NITEL deal.

While I appreciate that most people want to amke money, note that people are also losing money everyday on the NSE. Most people just keep quiet about the loses and lick their wounds silently.

For long term investors, look for undervalued stocks, with good management and corporate governance and prospect for growth. That is all that you need. 5 to 10 stocks in that category is all that you need to join the billionaires club. Forget about teh short term flunctuations. For those that bought Wema and were not bothered with the short term flunctuations after the poor result are laughing now (if they sold before the TS). Those that panicked and followed the herds mentality are regretting it now.