Wanaj0's Posts
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feelgood:If we share similarities, I would have sold. NAHCO is over priced. Well, it dropped today to 28.00. Sold day before at 29.00. Bought at the IPO though so our situation are not the same. You need to ask yourself why you bought and what was your exit strategy. Temmie10:Most times what people do is a weighted average. A straight forward average can be misleading. You also need historical PE's to show you the shift/changes taking place. Ololufemi, on why do you think that ETI is expensive ? |
Market today na so so!!! Nigerian German lost today (Shigidi na you cause am OOO). NAHCO also lost as expected. OandO crossed the 90.00 mark!!! That is great news. Inter is on the march again. Ikeja hotels is stagnant. Chellaram is stagnant!!!! Has the technical suspension on ETI being lifted? That is a good value stock. |
RoughCut: pumping777:Well, you get to a level where your 'miserly' capital injection is of no use. Actually the scenario was done with the fact that after some years, you actually stop injecting new capital and it really does not affect your bottom line. A N500m portfolio does not really 'need' a N2m yearly capital injection!!! Hope you get my drift. RoughCut:25m units of First Bank will not get you on the baord. Some years ago IBTC was asking people with N1bn to come forward and they will invest it and get them on the board of companies. Now, 1bn is not enough again!!!!! Massive oversubsription will push up the price before teh common men get their shares certificate or get it into their CSCS account. Once it becomes an all comers affair, water will find its level. Definitely, market sentiment will drive the price up but it is not suatainable. Just check Dangote Sugar from N56.00 now to about N36.00 |
[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1726268#msg1726268 date=1196252570]WanajO, Welcome. I know you had it in 1st Class since the dividend came from 1st Bank. Just kidding. That was how a friend bought First Aluminium at over N3 thinking it was owned by 1st Bank. Still kidding. ![]() WanajO, Please can you tell me about RT Briscoe and Air Services & Logistics, and C & I Leasing. I would certainly like to grow with those companies in the 3-5 years. I am really keen on buying something now. Sometimes it is a crime to keep one's money. Remember the season!!! ![]() Pumping 777 You are great asset to this forum. easimoni, Roughcut (prefer Smoothcut though ), Fatherof2, all of you even, lurkers. Welldone. With the knowledge I have gathered here, I am helping to heal a friends burnt fingers in TRANSCORP! He had thought Transcorp would rally after technical suspension, it did rally though but SOUTHWARDS even down to the Niger Delta and beyond the creeks. [/quote]Going to Uk is like 6hrs which is what it will take me to get to Warri so nothing special!!!!!Not sure the info you wanted about RT Briscoe. But they are into Telecoms, property and distribution of vehicles with Ford being the major one now. ASL is a newly listed company so there is limited info about them.They provide services to the air lines in terms of catering etc. C and I leasing is company set for growth. Due to liquidity issues, I don't take too much look at those companies. |
RoughCut:Roughcut, that's why it is important having an idea of the personality before making suggestions when it comes to investment. Well, some people have N1bn in a single stock on the NSE!!!!! RoughCut:Redstar will continue to rise based on the scarcity of the stock. I hardly bother myself with such stocks. It will be unavailable at least for now. [quote author=l.o.m.a.h link=topic=31554.msg1726221#msg1726221 date=1196251941]@ wanaj0. sorry, i think i meant that for pumping and easimoni. thanx for your response though. does anyone knw when the first bank certs will be out? av been diosappointed with the price performance , until a few days ago when they muscled up over &naira, now its sliding down again. still watching though, but i ust add that its along termer for me. i should be ready for bankPHB/zenith and wema next month/jan08 and one good insurance coy. i also bought lots of dangote. anyone knows when they will be listed ? i hear mid -dec.[/quote]Not sure when Dangote Flour will be listed. Heard however that it was massively oversubcribed and that those that bought more than 10,000 units will have a large part of their money returned!!!!!!!!!! |
[quote author=l.o.m.a.h link=topic=31554.msg1726091#msg1726091 date=1196250187]yea, almost skipped my mind, anyone knows when 1st bank certs will be sent out?? will appreciate a quick one on this. wanaj0 and pumping could you please help me with your various spreadsheets? you can forward to oog_dre1@geologist.com. , so i too can zero in on the fundamentals and fish too. ![]() cheers ![/quote]Which spreadsheet are we talking about here ![]() |
[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1726096#msg1726096 date=1196250231]Talking about WAPCO, sleeping giant See WAPCO Q3 below:WEST AFRICAN PORTLAND CEMENT PLC UNAUDITED 3RD QUARTER ACCOUNT ENDED 30TH SEPTEMBER 2007 2007 2006 TURNOVER N29.302b N29.382b EXCEPTIONAL ITEMS N95m (N315m) PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION N8.783b N9.195b TAXATION (N1.054b) (N537m) PROFIT AFTER TAXATION N7.729b N8.658b[/quote] ![]() Well, this is envisaged already. If you look at the facts behind the figures, WAPCO is operating to close to capacity now so don't expect significant growth in turnover. Due to the investment, they had tax relief which they no longer enjoy now hence the increase in the tax figures. You also have a situation where the operating cost increased in view of the disruption in gas supply which was further worsened by the increase in LPFO and diesel cost. Note however, that WAPCo is still servicing its debt. Going forward, WAPCo will still increase its capacity thus growing turnover. So still a good company. |
RoughCut:N1bn (approx US$10m) portfolio is not difficult over TIME. It is that TIME element that is killing people. You need to be patient to be able to achieve that. That is a medium term goal for me!!! See why some stocks even if they retuned 10,000% will not be in my portfolio ![]() If you've bought Oceanic and NAHCO in the apst two years, you may be close to that. |
ololufemi:If GDR's are not shares, what are they ?If WAPCo should declare a bonus, they are set to go the way of NBL!!!! Hope you know the story!!!! |
Did not have time to respond yesterday. Was on a flight from Uk after a well deserved holiday funde with my FBN dividend. Many things are evident on this thread. People wanting to make money without understanding their risk profile. Capital market is not a gamblers den. Be careful. Your risk profile, your portfolio value etc also affects your choice of stocks. For example, if you have a N1bn portfolio, you will not be looking at Cutix, Capital oil, Trans Express etc. Reason is simple, when you want to sell you may not have anyone to sell to except your wife or children are planning to BUY. Factor all this into your calculation. That's why all the investment/stock broking house have their list of preffered/selected stocks. Choice is based on many things. Like I always tell people, in a BULL market, everyone is an expert. A bearish market separates the boys from the men. For those that joined the market within the past 18months, they've only witnessed the BULL market and have concluded that LIFE will always be like that. Sorry, that is not so. We I am a mechanical engineer. Bought my first stocks in the late '90s. Open a stock broking account in 2001. Bought shares blindly. Since then, I've read and learnt how to fish. Aditionally, I have gone for emotional/psychological tests to better prepare me for the market. In teh early days, I bought National Oil at 20.00 Saw it dropped to 14.00 and was like what a mess is this. Bought more at 14.00 and it later got to 25.00 and I sold. Within 12 months after I sold, National Oil got to 100.00!!!! That made me to start to learn about fundamentals of a company. On the long run, the market will always recognise the value of a company. That's why Nigerian German, NAHCO etc were picks for me. If a stock is a BUY at the PO, then it is a MUST BUY prior to the PO!!!!!! One other thing that is noticeable is the 'craze' to BUY anything and everything. Note that when you over diversified, you basically reduce your potential profit. I have over 40 (yes 40) stocks in my portfolio. However, 15 of them constitute almost 90% spread across sectors. So I only need to focus on the vital few. Note that portfolio diversification/asset allocation is key. Also, our investment objective and horizon differs. Some are ethical investors while others are not. So it is difficult to make stock picks for people you know next to nothing about. Quite a couple of people I've had to ask them personal questions to be able to make 'quality' advice for them. You don't know how the person will react to a 10% drop in his portfolio!!!!!! On Afrinvest, spoke with them today. They claimed to have responded to mails. If you stillw ant me to follow up on your behalf (willing to do so being a client of theirs for 7 years) send me an e-mail or forward the e-mail you sent to them. Let us all enjoy the bullish run!!! |
Etin:Etin, my email is ade_aoa at yahoo dot com. |
Etin:Etin, thanks. Do you have the prospectus? If yes kindly e-mail to me. |
Dangote's problem is the quarterly dividend. At a meeting with brokers, the mgt of Dangote are reconsidering the quarterly dividend practice. The market will still react to the fundamentals but it will take some time. Right now, there is nothing to drive the price. I mean a dividend of about 50k is what is left for the year! |
Dumsky:Yes I got a loan to buy the Access PO. Note that as at the time of that discussion, the PO was still on. Even now, you don't know whether my money will be returned since the PO is yet to be concluded. Yes I believe that Access was ubdervalued at 14.60 |
Etin:I hope you are aware that the private placement was actually done last year. Have you confirmed that they met the capitalisation requirement That is key before you put your money in a private placement. |
EMMAACHILE:Thanks. That report is however filled with errors. UNIC strategic plan is not in line with what teh analyst wrote. For starters, UNIC is not strong in the oil and gas sector. UNIC is actually planning to farm out its non-life insurance to concentrate on Life. They are good in health insurance. That is really the cash cow. They also have a recreation centre planned for VGC. Not sure if it is completed now. What is not clear is if the non life sector contribution to profit is included in this interim result. |
RoughCut:See me defending Access when I am not even a shareholder. Well, share the LOOT with us OOO. The patient dog eats the fattest bone. Can imagine how you felt when the price of Access was stagnant after the lifting of TS. Now you are having the feeling of De ja Vu |
pumping777:Gave a sell order for my NAHCO. Anything above 29.00 is good although longer throat is saying 32. Nothing justifies the price so no point getting caught in the correction. I am out this week. At least half of my holdings there will gone. For those trending PAT of Insurance companies, be careful. Claims may just throw the whole calculation upside down. Also the dividend yield for insurance companies is quite low. UNIC is still a favourite. At least, we have better view of the numbers. Also, the business model is sound. What is not clear now is what was done to the non-life business. How is that being handled? Bought the PO last year at 1.10 so no drive for me to buy again. However it is a stock to hold. |
Everyone is a guru in a bullish market. The bear market separates the wheat from the chaff. The whole market is bullish now so no problem. When the bears come to rule again, then I wait to see people asking ridiculous questions. Definitely people will get their fingers burnt. By then they will learn investing 101. Oceanic certificates are available now. Send your brokers to pick up yours. All those who were against Access Bank because of the analysis of one disgruntled analyst hope you are seeing the light now! Well Shigidi, are you still intesrested in my NGC ![]() Chellarams still holding forth. What a year |
Pennywise:Well sent a mail to Susan this morning and got a response. Sent the comments to her verbatim and she asked for the names of the people concerned to be sure that she actually got the mails. Like I said before I last heard from her on Wednesday last week. This was her response: Kindly send the details of the client given the complains to be sure the mails were received. Regards Susan |
toyibanj:Never said that OOOOO ![]() |
Beulah2:What a strange but interesting name you have, BEULAH. Sure you know the meaning. How did you come about it? Susan replied to my mail on Wednesday and since then I have not heard from her. Will definitely speak with her before the end of the week by which time I will know whether to escalate it to their head of institutional sales! Got someone moved to investment arm once because of a similar situation last. While not trying to defend Afrinvest, sometimes they don't get mails from yahoo and sometimes their response to yahoo also don't get delivered. Check also that yahoo does not send their mails to your SPAM or Bulk folder. I was told sometimes ago that they are having problems with their IT. Learnt they were doing a cutover which afected ability to grant online access. Thought that should be over by now!!!! |
shigidi:I am not a short term player. FCMB is good but not that impressed with the balance sheet. Something does not add up. LondonCool:Afrinvest to me is still one of the best out there. They are passing through a lot of changes and restructuring though. As a rule, copy someone (another account officer) in all your correspondence. If you don't get propmt attention, escalate. |
nzemillion:The refund will be sent to the agent through whom you submitted your application. Alternatively, it will be sent to your mailing address. Not sure how effective Meristem registrars are. |
Shigidi, Susan Ifashe is relatively new. She also manages one of my account for me. Quite nice and corteous. If you have any problem, reuest for Mrs Balogun. You must be a special client to be going to their office. Never being there before. |
Mr Risky, Little info on Airline Services so I am not in a position to comment RT Briscoe use to have GTB via ARM as a coreinvestor. Things have changed with GTB divesting from ARM. RE Briscoe are into vehicles (Ford mainly now), Atlas Copco compressors (not sure if they've divested) and medical equipment. They raised some money about two years ago. Seem to be a good stock to hold for growth. May and Baker is a pharmaceutical company that is now into Food and drinks. They have a strategic investment in Bio Vaccines a vaccine making company in Nigeria. With that they will control the vaccine market. They are into production of noddles and mineral water. They had a PO last year which was over 200% over subscribed. They missed their profit target for last year due to late receipt of the offer proceed. Also with competition in the water business, they are changing plans as per the utilisation of the offer proceed. There is also a delay in the bringing on stream of the Bio Vaccine plant. However, with NAFDAC support, May and Baker should do well on the long term. |
naijacutee:Fola Adeola comes to mind! |
naijacutee:Power projects are capitl intensive with long gestation perios. Regulatory environment was not favourable hence the lack of investment by the private sector. For Nigeria, Gas is the most cost effective option for power generator. Economy of scale means bigger plants 500MW are preferred. |
Samstone, I am not a stockbroker. I am a Mechanical Engineer and I practice Engineering. Worked briefly as an external auditor with Price Waterhouse before. So just learning the ropes about the capital market. Yodiyokun, cooking books is a matter of 'legal' treatment of some balance sheet items. Banks will still have to comply with prudential guidelines. That's why there use to be a lot of 'movements' during the financial end year to cover up lapses during the year. When Firstbank wrote off N10bn in a single year from the botched IIL deal, some others will juts provide for a part of it saying that the loan is not 'BAD'. So FBN took a hit of N10bn in a single year thus reducing their profit by N10bn for tht year. Others may just provide for 10% or 20%. I won't call that 'cooking' of books. I will say it has to do with different philosophies. Next is the issue of insider related credits. That's teh one I hate most. That's my main problm with Zenith. When you grant loans to some people at concessionary rate. It gets worse when the loan now goes bad! That was the problem with most o the banks that died in the '90s. Directors living fat on depositors funds. The CBN now have online access to the Bank's DATABASE. Good step in teh right direction, but once there is collusion, nothing anyone can do! Best systems gets compromised once there is collusion. First Bank and UBN will always be sitting on cash partly because of the amount in their dormant accounts!!!!! They just feed fat on those accounts. With competition, any unsound bank will go under easily!!!!! So no shaking!!!!! |
Naijadr:While not trying to spoil the party, please be careful about NGC. They tend to make more money in the first half of the year than in the second half. Their oil services business is small but has a big margin. Unfortunately, the Niger Delta crisis is affecting them. I think they are currently fairly valued and if it gets to 28.00, it will be time to say thank you and bye bye. June last year it was about 4.00. August this year it was about 12.00. It use to have a PE of about 4.00!!!! The market is just coming to terms with the value of the company. The company owns substantial stake in UNIC insurance so should benefit from the insurance boom. Will be surprised if they don't declare a banus this year. It is long overdue. A 3 for 1 will not be out of place!!!! (well UNIC owned by the same set of people did something similar some years ago). Pumping, will not say NGC is volatile. Not with the limited liquidity. |
yodiyokun:What is your definition of cooking books? If you have worked as an external auditor before you will understand some of the issues involved. Basic problem with Enron was failure on the part of the auditor. The auditor compromised its position. Acting as a consultant and as an auditor at the same time. Corporate governance is vital in companies that one invests in. yodiyokun:Improved liquidity is driving the market. Things will cool out soon. |
[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1711716#msg1711716 date=1195833738]Technically, the market is currently in an overbought mode (time to sell beckoning & re-enter @ lower price mid dec, if short term trader), so the bears are just round the corner to pounce heavily re. end of year book keeping for institutional investors, brokers etc.[/quote]Well, don't be too sure. If the trapped insurance funds and teh PFA enters the market, you will be suprised. Add that to the First Bnak return money. So, you need to know what is driving the market. Well, my NGC will not come down to teh 12.62 that I bought in August correction or not! |
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