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InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 1:29pm On Nov 28, 2007
Mr. Risky:
WanajO,  
Welcome.  I know you had it in 1st Class since the dividend came from 1st Bank.  Just kidding.  That was how a friend bought First Aluminium at over N3 thinking it was owned by 1st Bank.  Still kidding. grin

WanajO,  Please can you tell me about RT Briscoe and Air Services & Logistics, and C & I Leasing.  I would certainly like to grow with those companies in the 3-5 years.  I am really keen on buying something now.  Sometimes it is a crime to keep one's money.  Remember the season!!! cheesy

Pumping 777
You are great asset to this forum.  easimoni, Roughcut (prefer Smoothcut though grin), Fatherof2, all of you even, lurkers.  Welldone. With the knowledge I have gathered here, I am helping to heal a friends burnt fingers in TRANSCORP!  He had thought Transcorp would rally after technical suspension, it did rally though but SOUTHWARDS even down to the Niger Delta and beyond the creeks. grin
Going to Uk is like 6hrs which is what it will take me to get to Warri so nothing special!!!!!

Not sure the info you wanted about RT Briscoe. But they are into Telecoms, property and distribution of vehicles with Ford being the major one now.

ASL is a newly listed company so there is limited info about them.They provide services to the air lines in terms of catering etc.

C and I leasing is company set for growth. Due to liquidity issues, I don't take too much look at those companies.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 1:24pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
Let's put it this way: $10M portfolio all in the NSE don't think that's a good idea. The Nigerian capital market is not that efficient enough for me and too volatile for my liver and as per regulations not yet there so there is no way i'm going to have all my asset/portfolio concentrated just in the equities/stock market Nigeria. I would diversify such  portfolio between

Stocks and Equities [/b]both in Nigeria and in the emerging markets(Angola,Brazil and Mexico and you can add Turkey forget about China and India that's a bubble waiting to burst)

[b]Properties
in Nigeria and UK and propably some cash  in Switzerlandi mean legitimate cash the taxes here are low compared to most western economies

So at any one-time the asset/portfolio  spread can withstand any shocks and hopefully you have hedged your risks properly. All my stuff in Naija hopefully is a proportion of my net worth

I think in about 5-7 years i should just be there so i can start looking for a cash cow to acquire
Roughcut, that's why it is important having an idea of the personality before making suggestions when it comes to investment. Well, some people have N1bn in a single stock on the NSE!!!!!

RoughCut:
Noticed that Cutix and RedStar and CI Leasing in that order  did the max 5% today again and still RedStar never surface. It might now be expensive to enter Cutix now looks like its hovering around its resistance level to borrow the language of the technical analysts
Redstar will continue to rise based on the scarcity of the stock. I hardly bother myself with such stocks. It will be unavailable at least for now.

l.o.m.a.h:
@ wanaj0.
sorry, i think i meant that for pumping and easimoni. thanx for your response though. does anyone knw when the first bank certs will be out? av been diosappointed with the price performance , until a few days ago when they muscled up over &naira, now its sliding down again. still watching though, but i ust add that its along termer for me. i should be ready for bankPHB/zenith and wema next month/jan08 and one good insurance coy. i also bought lots of dangote. anyone knows when they will be listed ? i hear mid -dec.
Not sure when Dangote Flour will be listed. Heard however that it was massively oversubcribed and that those that bought more than 10,000 units will have a large part of their money returned!!!!!!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:55pm On Nov 28, 2007
l.o.m.a.h:
yea, almost skipped my mind, anyone knows when 1st bank certs will be sent out?? will appreciate a quick one on this. wanaj0 and pumping could you please help me with your various spreadsheets?
you can forward to oog_dre1@geologist.com. , so i too can zero in on the fundamentals and fish too. grin
cheers !
Which spreadsheet are we talking about herehuh
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:54pm On Nov 28, 2007
no_shaking:
Talking about WAPCO, sleeping giant huh huh See WAPCO Q3 below:

WEST AFRICAN PORTLAND CEMENT PLC
UNAUDITED 3RD QUARTER ACCOUNT ENDED 30TH
SEPTEMBER 2007
                                                2007      2006
TURNOVER                           N29.302b  N29.382b
EXCEPTIONAL ITEMS            N95m     (N315m)
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION  N8.783b   N9.195b
TAXATION                           (N1.054b) (N537m)
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION     N7.729b   N8.658b
tongue tongue tongue tongue

Well, this is envisaged already. If you look at the facts behind the figures, WAPCO is operating to close to capacity now so don't expect significant growth in turnover. Due to the investment, they had tax relief which they no longer enjoy now hence the increase in the tax figures. You also have a situation where the operating cost increased in view of the disruption in gas supply which was further worsened by the increase in LPFO and diesel cost.

Note however, that WAPCo is still servicing its debt.

Going forward, WAPCo will still increase its capacity thus growing turnover. So still a good company.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:48pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
chei! did i hear you mention N1B portfolio somewhere in your thread? let's just say if my portfolio is worth N1B i will be on the board of directors of Law union+Rock insurance or UNIC grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

On a more serious note every now and then we need your 'elderly' contributions to drum some semblance of REALITY into some peeps(yours truly included on this forum
N1bn (approx US$10m) portfolio is not difficult over TIME. It is that TIME element that is killing people. You need to be patient to be able to achieve that. That is a medium term goal for me!!! See why some stocks even if they retuned 10,000% will not be in my portfolio tongue

If you've bought Oceanic and NAHCO in the apst two years, you may be close to that.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:37pm On Nov 28, 2007
ololufemi:
Hello Everyone,

I ca see that nerves have all cooled down and there is no red alert threats. Its been great to see us all contributing to this thread.

The following stocks look good for the short term

Access; Once their result is announced and they perform well, it will rise. Also has a low PE compared to industry average

Diamond; Has a low PE compared to industry average and GDR will not affect it unless they are converted to shares. (GDRs are not shares)

FCMB; Post TS and good half year result, PAT increased by 139%

UBA; Dividend payout day not announced but once it is, it will rise. May get to about N63

Oceanic; Foresight of good Full year results

NB; All these stocks are also good long term stocks.

Happy Investing.


NB: Wapco is a sleeping giant and I expect a bonus to be declared for their financial year. Expensive but you cannot go wrong with it. (Low PE compared with industry average PE)
If GDR's are not shares, what are theyhuh?

If WAPCo should declare a bonus, they are set to go the way of NBL!!!! Hope you know the story!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 11:54am On Nov 28, 2007
Did not have time to respond yesterday. Was on a flight from Uk after a well deserved holiday funde with my FBN dividend.

Many things are evident on this thread. People wanting to make money without understanding their risk profile. Capital market is not a gamblers den. Be careful.

Your risk profile, your portfolio value etc also affects your choice of stocks. For example, if you have a N1bn portfolio, you will not be looking at Cutix, Capital oil, Trans Express etc. Reason is simple, when you want to sell you may not have anyone to sell to except your wife or children are planning to BUY. Factor all this into your calculation. That's why all the investment/stock broking house have their list of preffered/selected stocks. Choice is based on many things.

Like I always tell people, in a BULL market, everyone is an expert. A bearish market separates the boys from the men. For those that joined the market within the past 18months, they've only witnessed the BULL market and have concluded that LIFE will always be like that. Sorry, that is not so.

We I am a mechanical engineer. Bought my first stocks in the late '90s. Open a stock broking account in 2001. Bought shares blindly. Since then, I've read and learnt how to fish. Aditionally, I have gone for emotional/psychological tests to better prepare me for the market.

In teh early days, I bought National Oil at 20.00 Saw it dropped to 14.00 and was like what a mess is this. Bought more at 14.00 and it later got to 25.00 and I sold. Within 12 months after I sold, National Oil got to 100.00!!!! That made me to start to learn about fundamentals of a company. On the long run, the market will always recognise the value of a company. That's why Nigerian German, NAHCO etc were picks for me. If a stock is a BUY at the PO, then it is a MUST BUY prior to the PO!!!!!!

One other thing that is noticeable is the 'craze' to BUY anything and everything. Note that when you over diversified, you basically reduce your potential profit. I have over 40 (yes 40) stocks in my portfolio. However, 15 of them constitute almost 90% spread across sectors. So I only need to focus on the vital few. Note that portfolio diversification/asset allocation is key.

Also, our investment objective and horizon differs. Some are ethical investors while others are not. So it is difficult to make stock picks for people you know next to nothing about. Quite a couple of people I've had to ask them personal questions to be able to make 'quality' advice for them. You don't know how the person will react to a 10% drop in his portfolio!!!!!!

On Afrinvest, spoke with them today. They claimed to have responded to mails. If you stillw ant me to follow up on your behalf (willing to do so being a client of theirs for 7 years) send me an e-mail or forward the e-mail you sent to them.

Let us all enjoy the bullish run!!!
BusinessRe: Lagos Building Investment Corporation. Private Placement by wanaj0: 8:27am On Nov 27, 2007
Etin:
@ mutu1 - LBIC sent
@ hbrednic - Universal PP sent
@ Wanaj0 - I havent got your email.
Etin, my email is ade_aoa at yahoo dot com.
BusinessRe: Lagos Building Investment Corporation. Private Placement by wanaj0: 10:34pm On Nov 26, 2007
Etin:
@Wanaj0

Thanks for you information and for watching out for me. I can confirm that they did meet the capitalisation requirement and this one is definitely for this year through FutureView with intial closing date 16th of November 2007.

@atilla

I got the LBIC emailed to me from Skye Bank and Universal from FutureView. I havent got a url link to give. I have just emailed the LBIC to you.

@ Crownvilla and Blenheim LBIC form sent as requested
Etin, thanks.

Do you have the prospectus? If yes kindly e-mail to me.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 10:27pm On Nov 26, 2007
Dangote's problem is the quarterly dividend. At a meeting with brokers, the mgt of Dangote are reconsidering the quarterly dividend practice.

The market will still react to the fundamentals but it will take some time. Right now, there is nothing to drive the price. I mean a dividend of about 50k is what is left for the year!
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 10:21pm On Nov 26, 2007
Dumsky:
@ wanajO,
thought you said you borrowed money to buy access PO because you thought it was undervalued or did i read wrong?
Yes I got a loan to buy the Access PO. Note that as at the time of that discussion, the PO was still on. Even now, you don't know whether my money will be returned since the PO is yet to be concluded.

Yes I believe that Access was ubdervalued at 14.60
BusinessRe: Lagos Building Investment Corporation. Private Placement by wanaj0: 8:24pm On Nov 26, 2007
Etin:
Anyone interested in the Universal Insurance PP @ 95000naira for 100000 min investments. I just got the 52 page document too large to upload. I will be happy to email to anyone interested. I learnt it would still be accepted up till next Friday.
I hope you are aware that the private placement was actually done last year. Have you confirmed that they met the capitalisation requirementhuh That is key before you put your money in a private placement.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:19pm On Nov 26, 2007
EMMAACHILE:
Check here for download links for UNIC INSURANCE and Bank Valuation Table
http://www.emmaachile.itgo.com/
Thanks. That report is however filled with errors. UNIC strategic plan is not in line with what teh analyst wrote.

For starters, UNIC is not strong in the oil and gas sector. UNIC is actually planning to farm out its non-life insurance to concentrate on Life. They are good in health insurance. That is really the cash cow. They also have a recreation centre planned for VGC. Not sure if it is completed now. What is not clear is if the non life sector contribution to profit is included in this interim result.
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 8:12pm On Nov 26, 2007
RoughCut:
I was going to shed ACCESS but looking at what the price is doing now and wanaj0's timely interventioni'm not selling my ACCESS easimoni does that sound familiar?
So if you have ACCESS don't sell yet looks like there is still more in the tank but i don't think it's a good idea to buy now if you don't have it
See me defending Access when I am not even a shareholder. Well, share the LOOT with us OOO.

The patient dog eats the fattest bone. Can imagine how you felt when the price of Access was stagnant after the lifting of TS. Now you are having the feeling of De ja Vu
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:04pm On Nov 26, 2007
pumping777:
Nahco's stock price is still on the rise and now N28.90 despite a forward adjusted PE of around 52 after factoring in 25% possible oversubscription. Wow!! I don't need to be told that many times the NSE is no respecter of fundamentals [sub][/sub]at least short term.
Gave a sell order for my NAHCO. Anything above 29.00 is good although longer throat is saying 32. Nothing justifies the price so no point getting caught in the correction. I am out this week. At least half of my holdings there will gone.

For those trending PAT of Insurance companies, be careful. Claims may just throw the whole calculation upside down. Also the dividend yield for insurance companies is quite low.

UNIC is still a favourite. At least, we have better view of the numbers. Also, the business model is sound. What is not clear now is what was done to the non-life business. How is that being handled?

Bought the PO last year at 1.10 so no drive for me to buy again. However it is a stock to hold.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:03pm On Nov 26, 2007
Everyone is a guru in a bullish market. The bear market separates the wheat from the chaff. The whole market is bullish now so no problem. When the bears come to rule again, then I wait to see people asking ridiculous questions. Definitely people will get their fingers burnt. By then they will learn investing 101.

Oceanic certificates are available now. Send your brokers to pick up yours.

All those who were against Access Bank because of the analysis of one disgruntled analyst hope you are seeing the light now!

Well Shigidi, are you still intesrested in my NGChuh

Chellarams still holding forth. What a year
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 9:47am On Nov 26, 2007
Pennywise:
@BEULAH

I can imagine your frustration. While considering assurances from Wanajo pick up the phone and try to talk. If they bulshit you lay your options on the table take immediate steps for reddress. Customer service of this kind usually signal an unhealthy company. Even if the company is thriving and it cannot handle customer relations effectively, why should I trust it with my money. I had a very high opinion of this company until now.
Well sent a mail to Susan this morning and got a response. Sent the comments to her verbatim and she asked for the names of the people concerned to be sure that she actually got the mails. Like I said before I last heard from her on Wednesday last week. This was her response:


Kindly send the details of the client given the complains to be sure the mails were received.



Regards



Susan
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:17am On Nov 26, 2007
toyibanj:
@ Wanaj0
Concerning BOG and Vitafoam. Are we to expect something towards their YE?
Never said that OOOOO tongue tongue tongue
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:57am On Nov 26, 2007
Beulah2:
Wanaj0, I am also with Mrs Susan in Afrinvest and she has refused to answer all my emails (like 4 of them) that I sent last week. Previously I have not been receiving her responses as well. I have cc Mrs Balogun on a couple of emails but no response. Please can you advise how to escalate this? After joining them for like 6 months, I still don't have online access. On one occasion, the security details for opening online account was sent to someone else and after that episode, there has not been any progress on opening the online account. I am kind of regretting joining Afrinvest. Thanks in advance for your response.
What a strange but interesting name you have, BEULAH. Sure you know the meaning. How did you come about it?

Susan replied to my mail on Wednesday and since then I have not heard from her. Will definitely speak with her before the end of the week by which time I will know whether to escalate it to their head of institutional sales! Got someone moved to investment arm once because of a similar situation last.

While not trying to defend Afrinvest, sometimes they don't get mails from yahoo and sometimes their response to yahoo also don't get delivered. Check also that yahoo does not send their mails to your SPAM or Bulk folder.

I was told sometimes ago that they are having problems with their IT. Learnt they were doing a cutover which afected ability to grant online access. Thought that should be over by now!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 6:21pm On Nov 25, 2007
shigidi:
@ wanajo , would you advise entering FCMB from the floor. at 17.45, one can actually get 50% appreciation from the stock, with a forecast eps of 0.96(assuming oversubscription) it can get to 25 quite smoothly. whats your take on that because there don't seem to be any juicy offers at the moment.
I am not a short term player. FCMB is good but not that impressed with the balance sheet. Something does not add up.

LondonCool:
Susan, happens to be my account manager too, but unfortunately she has not bothered to reply my last 4 emails to her.I was in their office(i.e AFRINVEST W.A Ltd) last year when they were trading as SECTRUST and I got a very high profile reception from the staff there. I used to transact with my previous account manager over the phone and I think that is the best way to get their attention.
Afrinvest to me is still one of the best out there. They are passing through a lot of changes and restructuring though. As a rule, copy someone (another account officer) in all your correspondence. If you don't get propmt attention, escalate.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 9:46pm On Nov 24, 2007
nzemillion:
Wanajo, Easimoni, Pumping 777, Temmie 10, i´m still waiting 4 you guys reply, as regards to how can i collect my First bank po´s refund money, Please let some body help me, cry
The refund will be sent to the agent through whom you submitted your application. Alternatively, it will be sent to your mailing address. Not sure how effective Meristem registrars are.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 9:08pm On Nov 24, 2007
Shigidi,

Susan Ifashe is relatively new. She also manages one of my account for me. Quite nice and corteous. If you have any problem, reuest for Mrs Balogun.

You must be a special client to be going to their office. Never being there before.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:33pm On Nov 24, 2007
Mr Risky,

Little info on Airline Services so I am not in a position to comment

RT Briscoe use to have GTB via ARM as a coreinvestor. Things have changed with GTB divesting from ARM. RE Briscoe are into vehicles (Ford mainly now), Atlas Copco compressors (not sure if they've divested) and medical equipment. They raised some money about two years ago. Seem to be a good stock to hold for growth.

May and Baker is a pharmaceutical company that is now into Food and drinks. They have a strategic investment in Bio Vaccines a vaccine making company in Nigeria. With that they will control the vaccine market. They are into production of noddles and mineral water. They had a PO last year which was over 200% over subscribed. They missed their profit target for last year due to late receipt of the offer proceed. Also with competition in the water business, they are changing plans as per the utilisation of the offer proceed. There is also a delay in the bringing on stream of the Bio Vaccine plant. However, with NAFDAC support, May and Baker should do well on the long term.
BusinessRe: 15 Successful Entrepreneurs Who Didn’t Need College by wanaj0: 12:33pm On Nov 24, 2007
naijacutee:
Please can you review 15 Sucessful Nigerian Entrepreneurs who didn't need University. . . Cheers.
Fola Adeola comes to mind!
BusinessRe: Discussion : Capitalising On Power Generation In Nigeria by wanaj0: 12:30pm On Nov 24, 2007
naijacutee:

I guess every Nigerian is affected in one way or the other by the issue of power generation in the country. So please feel free to talk about your experiences, thoughts, appraisals, doom forecasts etc. . . I guess you get the picture,

Thinking about it, independent power generation would be a great project in Nigeria which would be reaching out to peoples immediate need and at the same time will (hopefully) be profitable to the pepertrators, whether they be Nigerian businesses or Foreign Investors (Preferably Nigerian Businesses smiley). Say for example, if a company or group pf companies decided to create local powerstations nationwide which provide electricity to say, about 500 homes at a time (Like Shell Housing generators, but available to the general public). This would provide thousands, if not million of jobs to Nigerian graduates, electricity to Nigerians and revenue to the business. What do you think the strenghts and pitfalls are? Also, what methods do you think are the most viable methods of providing power - Coal? Gas? Biodiesel? Can you justify these methods? Where would one get these materials from? Is there any legislation preventing this? Why hasn't anyone taken it up since 1960?
Power projects are capitl intensive with long gestation perios.

Regulatory environment was not favourable hence the lack of investment by the private sector.

For Nigeria, Gas is the most cost effective option for power generator.

Economy of scale means bigger plants 500MW are preferred.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 10:06am On Nov 24, 2007
Samstone, I am not a stockbroker. I am a Mechanical Engineer and I practice Engineering. Worked briefly as an external auditor with Price Waterhouse before. So just learning the ropes about the capital market.

Yodiyokun, cooking books is a matter of 'legal' treatment of some balance sheet items. Banks will still have to comply with prudential guidelines. That's why there use to be a lot of 'movements' during the financial end year to cover up lapses during the year.

When Firstbank wrote off N10bn in a single year from the botched IIL deal, some others will juts provide for a part of it saying that the loan is not 'BAD'. So FBN took a hit of N10bn in a single year thus reducing their profit by N10bn for tht year. Others may just provide for 10% or 20%. I won't call that 'cooking' of books. I will say it has to do with different philosophies.

Next is the issue of insider related credits. That's teh one I hate most. That's my main problm with Zenith. When you grant loans to some people at concessionary rate. It gets worse when the loan now goes bad! That was the problem with most o the banks that died in the '90s. Directors living fat on depositors funds.

The CBN now have online access to the Bank's DATABASE. Good step in teh right direction, but once there is collusion, nothing anyone can do! Best systems gets compromised once there is collusion.

First Bank and UBN will always be sitting on cash partly because of the amount in their dormant accounts!!!!! They just feed fat on those accounts.

With competition, any unsound bank will go under easily!!!!! So no shaking!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 9:55am On Nov 24, 2007
Naijadr:
I actually found out about Nig-German from here in Sep, and did research before going in late Oct, it was about 20% of my small portfolio, actually wanted it to be 25%, but took away funds I had allocated for it unfortunately.

They havent given any bonuses since, which is great for me, neither have they come out seeking funds through POs
They are serously undervalued, even though they are listed under chemical paints, their interests in oil and gas is huge, and its their top 2 area alongside pharmaceuticals for largest profits. I love their partnership with the big dogs like pfizer with whom they produce the drug Benylin and other stuff.

I think they limit the amount of shares available too which helps keep the price unaffected even during a bear market. Chief Shonekan holds a large amt.
I like the management, I like Alhaji Idris the Emir of Zaria being the chairman given his connections.
NGC also are invested in UNIC Insurance

This is their report from 2005
http://www.ngcplc.com/financials/NGCPLC_Annual_Report_2005.pdf
While not trying to spoil the party, please be careful about NGC. They tend to make more money in the first half of the year than in the second half. Their oil services business is small but has a big margin. Unfortunately, the Niger Delta crisis is affecting them.

I think they are currently fairly valued and if it gets to 28.00, it will be time to say thank you and bye bye. June last year it was about 4.00. August this year it was about 12.00. It use to have a PE of about 4.00!!!! The market is just coming to terms with the value of the company. The company owns substantial stake in UNIC insurance so should benefit from the insurance boom.

Will be surprised if they don't declare a banus this year. It is long overdue. A 3 for 1 will not be out of place!!!! (well UNIC owned by the same set of people did something similar some years ago).

Pumping, will not say NGC is volatile. Not with the limited liquidity.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:51pm On Nov 23, 2007
yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0 made a point about money coming from FBN returned funds and Institutional investors keeping the market from cooling.

He has a point, but I believe even if this funds come, it will be zapped by the Public offers set to debut in December, the truth is we are all extrapolating.

Where is @Bigboylary with his crystall ball when you need him?.

I was one of the people that had problems with Access and their books - they are cooking it. Most Banks do cook their books - period!. believe it or not

and it also happens in developed countries too - if it did not we would not have the Enron saga and the current sub prime lending problem.

However, that does not stop us from making profit.
What is your definition of cooking books? If you have worked as an external auditor before you will understand some of the issues involved.

Basic problem with Enron was failure on the part of the auditor. The auditor compromised its position. Acting as a consultant and as an auditor at the same time.

Corporate governance is vital in companies that one invests in.


yodiyokun:
Anyone know what is driving Law and Union through the roof?

The market did not react when they released their 3rd Quarter result and it was quite good.

So why react now? They have been on full 5% in the last 3 days!!.

I wonder if it will still go back to the days of 3.19?
Improved liquidity is driving the market. Things will cool out soon.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:19pm On Nov 23, 2007
no_shaking:
Technically, the market is currently in an overbought mode (time to sell beckoning & re-enter @ lower price mid dec, if short term trader), so the bears are just round the corner to pounce heavily re. end of year book keeping for institutional investors, brokers etc.
Well, don't be too sure. If the trapped insurance funds and teh PFA enters the market, you will be suprised. Add that to the First Bnak return money. So, you need to know what is driving the market.

Well, my NGC will not come down to teh 12.62 that I bought in August correction or not!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:13pm On Nov 23, 2007
Nothing disappointing about the GTB result. It was not below expectation in any way. Wait for the Q3 result. That's when you start to see what is cooking. Though not too bullish about GTB (they hardly fiddle with their share price), but it is a fundamentally sound growth stock. Second largest in my portfolio after FBN.

First Bank is set for big things. I see them hitting a FY PAT of about N35b. That should take the price to about 50.00. If the IIL return money is through, that is extra N10bn extra ordinary income. If they decide to sell part of tehir stake in Celtel, that is another N5bn. So going forward, First Bank is it. Not even mentioning the benefit of the last PO.

Access, what can I say? For the first time I borrowed money to buy the IPO. WHy? It was undervalued. Can remember when people were talking about them cooking up books. Now we know better.

Nigerian German is on course. Solid company. Little float so will always hold its own even in a bear market. Major attraction is the benefit that will accrue from the oil services subsidiary. High margin business that is favoured by the local content policy.

Chellarams also is doing fine.

Watch out for BOC and Vitafoam. They will be the first to release result in the new year.

WAPCO, solid company. Little growth. Possibility of a bonus is very slim.

Insurance companies will still do well. However, until the full figures are out, I say HOLD. Those guys have zero corporate governance. For those talking about AIICO, do you know that they did a PO not too long ago? Do you know that they acquired some companies? Have you seen the scheme of merger?

On Universe Re, be careful! This is a company that did not meet NAICOM requirement. I suspect that the private Placment going on now is an extension of the initial unsuccesful private placement. What happens if you subscribe and NAICOM withdraws the license. Think about those that bought the IPO of All States Trus Bank.

IBTC is over valued. Just waiting for it to reach the 20.00 mark. Definitely there are better options out there.

As per buying offers through your brothers, sisters etc, not a tidy arrangement. What if they are also interested in buying. For me, easy way out is to incorporate a company with you and your spouse as the owners if you are married. You can have many of them and use that as your investment vehicle. Yes you will bear a ONCE and for all cost of incorporation and that is all. No commission to any broker. ANother advantage is that your identity is hidden. Verification of certificates etc is a lot easier. Just put a seal on the letter to the registrar and that is all. I see that as a more tidy way of handling teh problem of over subscription.

On Transcorp the problems are many. Major problem is funding for the turn around. With the unsuccesful PO, the funds rae not there. Option is to go for more debt which means that the shareholders will wait much longer for benefits.

Transcorp over paid for NITEL so if the sale is reversed no real problem apart from sentiments. They can put that money to better use but expect serious backlash.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 10:06am On Nov 23, 2007
Ololufemi, good idea but loaded with a lot of risks. Problem is trust when it comes to money. Blame culture and different risks profiles are part of the problems associated with investment clubs.

Frankiri mooted and I think started an investment club. People can latch on to that.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:56am On Nov 23, 2007
shigidi:
@ wanajo, by the way i just opened an account with AFRINVEST. they seem okay but there seems to be no contact with custmers. everything is done by e-mail and they send weekly recommendations, its kind of cold isnt it if theres no contact
You should have an account officer who you can contact depending on the kind of contact you want. Don't forget that they now have MANY customers to attend to. Being with them since 2001 and never being to their office.

Let me know who is your account officer and I can help move you to the 'best' account officer. You also need to know the contact of two other people that you can copy on your requests in case your account officer is not immediately available. You can also speak with them on the phone.

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