₦airaland Forum

There is this guy on Twitter who claimed the remaining 50 isotrex legion MRAP had been delivered and he saw them parked in a military camp while passing through, efforts to get him to share pictures were unsuccessful and he has since deleted the tweets.

Remember that the Army opted for 60 isotrex legion MRAP and 24 phantoms APC rather than 10 T-90 tanks. 10 of the legion MRAP were delivered before the offensive operation earlier this year and at least 3 were destroyed or captured.
Does anyone have any information/pictures as to the rest of the legions being delivered?

SamuelAnyawu:
The Terrain in Northern and Deep Central Borno do not allow easy movements during the raining season.

An Example is Rann in Kala Balge LGA, once it’s the raining season Soldiers and locals can’t move out with vehicles except on foot or Donkeys. From July everyone starts stockpiling his/her three months food stuff.

Fishing Period don Dey reach too if you know you know

LAC region

Good day bro.
How far with air traffic over there, any significant changes in numbers of sorties?

And then when you factor in the vehicles the terrorist lost to our neighbors, their losses might be far more significant.

An estimated 77 vehicles were stripped, destroyed or stolen from security forces; police, Army and CTJF units, comprising of heavy transport trucks, pick up in normal and gun truck configuration and armoured fighting vehicles; Isotrex Legion and Phantom II, Otokar Cobra, FV-103, Panhard AML-60, Mowag Piranha, Panhard VBL, Panhard ERC-90, Steyr 4K 7FA, BTR-4, Nigerian Army built Ezugwu and Conqueror, Vickers, T-55 and T-72AV MBT.

The number of these armoured vehicles that were unserviceable and abandoned is unknown but the diversity of the stockpile and location of incidents indicate that the vehicles were either used in defensive or offensive roles.

More than 30 gun trucks were either destroyed, damaged or captured by the Nigerian troops with 13 recorded as the military was pushing back an ISWAP attack on a military formation in new Marte in January. A significant proportion of the gun trucks, mostly Toyota Hilux and Buffalo land cruisers, are originally those of the Nigerian military lost in ambushes and large scale attacks on units.

ISWAP usually destroys armoured vehicles after stripping them of useful parts, likely because of the vulnerability of heavy armour to airstrikes or lack of expertise, or both factors.

Obviously, the report didn't factor weapons destroyed in air interdiction operations that has not been reported since the new service chiefs took over.

This is also part of the reasons I'm glad the tucanos were bought. If you've watched some of the CAS videos released by DHQ, you will notice the aircrafts struggling to destroy the gun trucks, at times firing 2-3 rockets before slightly destroying the targets.
The APKWS coming with the tucanos, will do the job nearly with one rocket and from afar at that. This will tilt the balance more in favor of the military.

youghs:
There's something going on in the COIN of borno that calls for concern. In recent time ISWAP attacks have reduced significantly and even when they attack these days it doesn't seem to carry much weight.

My best guess is either they are conserving their ammo and resources for dry season offensive or JF17 have been carrying out precision strike to wipe out their guntrucks.

It has always been like this in raining seasons, heavy equipment can't be used because of terrains. There are some settlements that are even completely inaccessible until the beginning of the dry season. However, the rate and scale of attacks has significantly reduced when compared to previous years raining season. I don't know when the raining season starts in that part of the country but attacks has been waning since late April. Could be because they were focusing on JAS.
Also, most of their attacks have been ending in futility. They've been reduced to looters sacking weak settlements for resources. Apart from capturing ex-JAS areas, they've not had any meaningful success in several months.

Nonetheless, expect at least 3 daring attacks once the ground starts becoming firm again. Especially at those locations that are being resettled by the government and people of Borno

Top 10 consumers of PMS in the country, Zamfara and Katsina are on the list, along with Borno. Kano and Kaduna are not on the list. Most of the other states are those at the borders(smuggling?).
The only reason why Zamfara and Katsina are on that list is because of banditry, Today, the governor of Zamfara has placed certain restrictions on the sale of PMS and the use of motorcycle.

Even Taraba state dey the list

DubaiLandLord:
The battle in the NE is not yet over until is over. Weapons alone don't win war.

Fulani heardsmen mostly wrecking havoc in the NW don't have the same ideology with ISWAP or Boko haram

It is not over yet but the tide is ebbing. With the projected famine in that place, the terrorist will be further weakened.

With the delivery of the rest of the tucanos in coming months, the delivery of some of the M346s, and with some of the other aircrafts currently on maintenance outside coming back, things should get better.
If the Army were to be as determined as the airforce and the navy, the future would have been brighter.

RiceProducers:
Too many sensationalists are not smelling the coffee. The sun has begun setting on the insurgency in the North East. New weapon platforms, age of fighters and just plain fatigue has set in. Boko Haram / ISWAP reluctant sympathisers who wish them victory to get back at Nigeria should look for something else to engage their morbid fantasies. Things come to an end.

The conflict has moved to the north west, I wished the military had considered moving some heavy equipment from the north east, especially from low risk locations to the north west this raining season knowing the attacks in the northeast would drastically reduce.

I'm pretty sure that many of the bandits would decide they've made enough money from the venture once there is a relentless offensive.

DubaiLandLord:
ISWAP attacked the Nigerian army at Mallam Fatori... Who have any information on this attack?

Not a serious attack, earlier this week, they launched artillery into the camp from afar, today they showed up in guntrucks. Reports have it that they are trying to stop resettlement efforts in the town. Government officials are already in the town preparing for the resettlement.

Stormtrooper11:
We were told to go back to our homes. The motorbike battalion NA arrived. Made some speeches, saying we should go to bed. They left. Arrived home, saw plenty broken molotov cocktails everywhere. Still tensed. Learnt they are coming for us. They have advantage. They are on higher ground.

This is what we've always been saying about NA being too defensive. Knowing that these guys will most likely come back and have the advantage, NA will simply wait for them to come and then attempt to "repel". Those criminals are most likely camping very close to the town where they can be caught unaware.

kabe1:
KC-390 was inspected by our former minister of defence when he was invited to Brazil.

However Jet engine transport planes seem to me like a more expensive proposition than propeller driven transport aircrafts.

I think the C-130J should be our target, considering we have experience flying the C-130 already, there is manpower on the ground to fly & maintain the aircraft.

I would only consider the KC-390 when Air Peace finish building their MRO facility. They are the largest user of Embrear aircrafts in Africa.


C-295 was also offered to Nigeria through the Air Force, former CAS, S.B Abubakar said he was going to move the proposal up the chain for approval at that time, but we have heard nothing since then.

We need additional MI-17s for real, with these new fighter aircrafts, A-29 , CH-4 & M-346FA, do you think NAF would still purchase additional Attack Helicopters? I don't see that possibility.

I really have doubts about additional JF-17s, but we would have to wait & see.

Nigerian navy has gotten approval to purchase 2 additional OPVs.

As for the Frigate, the Navy said they would lobby to get funding to buy a replacement for Aradu, no funding received yet.

They also said when the LST is delivered, they would place order for an additional unit.

For me, I would prefer NN get a minimum of 1 Frigate & 2 Corvettes.

However let's see how things progress.

The airforce will still get attack helos, the security situation demands it. The animals we fight are those who will come back to the battlefield after a fixed wing aircraft has expended its main ammunition and returned to base because of fuel. We need aircrafts that will remain in the air for hours. The Tucanos might be fitted into that role for now but it still won't be able to do what an attack helo will do. We still have 6 MI-35s in Russia waiting to be delivered, Ajuri Ngelale mentioned they will be delivered this year some months ago.
Why sign the agreement with Russia if we are not looking to buy new weapons from them. And considering we've been using Russian helicopters for some time now.....

Meanwhile, when oil was selling for above $100 per barrel and Nigeria was producing over 2 million bpd and government "had interest and will" to end the insurgency.....




Some of my colleagues will rather believe the weapons are being purchased to be used against the south by the north rather than for the security of lives and properties in the country. One was querying the need to get new ships when there is no "water" in the northeast.




Just imagine where the military will be by now if they had been getting this kind of support since the beginning of the insurgency?

At that quantity and with delivery starting within a relatively short period, are we getting used? It's important to know about this so as to be able to estimate how long they will last.

Let's keep pushing blames around and not address the root cause and I promise you decades from now we will still be dealing with insecurity.

There is this article by Humangle stating that the bulk of the terrorist finances is from taxing locals in their area of control, kidnapping for ransom and controlling the smoked fish and pepper trade in that axis. It was at the infancy of the insurgency that they were relying on donations from individuals, at this point they make far more than any group of individuals can donate to them in a year in just weeks.
No doubt they have sympathizers within and outside government but we need hard evidence not media trial.
At this point, the conflict is too personal for many in the military to keep quiet if they knew those behind it. The current army chief has been attacked before by these terrorists. Many have lost friends and relatives to these violence. If indeed the military and government knew those sponsoring the terrorists and criminals, we would have been seeing a repeat of what happened to Badeh(not suggesting that he was killed by men in the military, just referring to the manner of the death).

The media has access to repentant terrorists, they should do a deep exposé on how terrorist groups are being funded.



Sad thing is that if the authorities decide to invite this man tomorrow to come explain himself(assuming he lied), it will be seen as an attempt to silence the man.

The fact that this guy claims to have been in military intelligence shows you how low your expectations of the military intelligence should be.

DubaiLandLord:
Terrorists named current Govs, Senators, Aso Rock officials as sponsors during interrogation – Ex-Naval Officer

A former Navy Commodore, Kunle Olawunmi, has said that Boko Haram terrorists mentioned names of current governors, senators and Aso Rock officials as sponsors during interrogation but the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has demonstrated unwillingness to go after the high-profile politicians for reasons best known to it.

Olawunmi spoke on Wednesday when he featured on Channels Television’s ‘Sunrise Daily’ breakfast programme monitored by The PUNCH.

He described as an “aberration”, Tuesday attack by bloodthirsty bandits on the Kaduna campus of Nigeria’s foremost military university, the Nigerian Defence Academy, where two military officers were killed and another kidnapped.

“It is an aberration; you don’t attack the Nigerian Defence Academy and get away with it,” he lamented, adding that the NDA, like other military environments in the country, carelessly opens its doors to everyone on Friday for Jumat prayer.

‘Terrorists profile security environments during Muslim prayer on Friday’

Olawunmi said terrorists and criminals profile military environments during Muslim prayers on Fridays.

He said, “In 2017, I carried out an investigation by the minister of defence that wanted me to check what was going on with the training and the security there (NDA). I remember I spent about a week in the NDA with the commandant and the staff but something struck me: every Friday, the gate of NDA is thrown open and everybody has access to pray in the mosque.

“On Fridays, you are going to see same thing happening across all military formations in the country…If you go to Defence Headquarters, I served at the Defence Headquarters as the Deputy Director, Defence Administration between 2015 and 2017, throughout my two years at the Defence Headquarters, I received visitors twice because of the strict security architecture there but every Friday, the gate of the Defence Headquarters is thrown wide open for everybody to come in and observe Jumat.

“That is the time the terrorists have the time to profile our security environment. It has always been the case. I have served the military intelligence for the past 35 years. Our problem is religion and socio-cultural.”

Furthermore, Olawunmi, a Professor of Global Security Studies, said he was a member of the Intelligence Brief at the Defence Headquarters during the leadership of the then Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Abayomi Olonisakin (retd.).

The intelligence expert said he told the then CDS that the centre of gravity of the Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North-East and spreading to other parts of Nigeria was the sponsors.

“I told General Olonisakin then that the centre of this problem cannot be solved the same way we solved the problem of the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta problem was solved during (Ex-President Umaru) Yar’adua basically by me and I told them that we can’t use that same template for Boko Haram.

“I told General Olonisakin to look at the centre of gravity of the problem. I was made a member of the committee in 2016-2017 including (Chief of Army Staff, Lt.-Gen. Ibrahi) Attahiru that died.

“I told them that the centre of gravity of Boko Haram in Nigeria is the sponsors of the programme. It was beyond us because the job we needed to do was kinetic but we cannot resolve issues of sponsors of Boko Haram that were in Buhari’s government that we know them. That was why we couldn’t pursue that aspect that could have resolved the issue because we need to arrest people.”

‘Why Buhari refused to prosecute 400 Boko Haram sponsors'

Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, had earlier in the year said the Nigerian Government arrested some Bureau De Change operators who were facilitating the transfer of money to Boko Haram terrorists.

Olawunmi said the government has not been able to prosecute the sponsors because it is allegedly partisan.

He said, “Recently, 400 people were gathered as sponsors of Boko Haram, why is it that the Buhari government has refused to try them? Why can’t this government bring them to trial if not that they are partisan and part of the charade that is going on?

“You remember this Boko Haram issue started in 2012 and I was in the military intelligence at that time. We arrested those people. My organisation actually conducted interrogation and they (suspects) mentioned names. I can’t come on air and start mentioning names of people that are presently in government that I know that the boys that we arrested mentioned. Some of them are governors now, some of them are in the Senate, some of them are in Aso Rock.

“Why should a government decide to cause this kind of embarrassment and insecurity to the sense of what happened yesterday (Tuesday at the NDA)?” he queried, adding that terrorist financiers want to turn Nigeria to Taliban type of country.

‘DSS has information on terrorism sponsors but can’t act without Buhari’s order’

Olawunmi also said that the Department of State Services has tremendous information on terrorists but they can’t do anything except the body language of the Commander-In-Chief.

He, however, expressed hope that the next Nigerian President in 2023 might have the willpower to bring the high-profile sponsors of Boko Haram to book.

The PUNCH had earlier reported that a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Obadiah Mailafia, said in August 2020 that repentant terrorists revealed that a serving northern governor is a Boko Haram leader.

For over 10 years, the Boko Haram terror group had killed hundreds of Nigerians in the North-East. The sect had also burnt down and bombed scores of villages as well as churches. The Nigerian Army and the Presidency had at several times claimed the group had been ‘technically defeated’ and ‘weakened’ but the bloodthirsty terrorist faction continues to strike with daring effrontery and crude savagery.

https://punchng.com/terrorists-named-current-govs-senators-aso-rock-officials-as-sponsors-during-interrogation-ex-naval-officer/

We heard this same type of bullshit in 2012, up till this moment, no concrete evidence has been released. Since they've been catching Boko Haram members, none of them has been questioned on tape to claim any politician is funding them, no whistle-blower or investigative journalist have investigated any of such claims and published irrefutable evidence. What's the route of finance or they just go to the bank, collect cash and handover the cash to the terrorists?
Let's even assume these accusations are true, that would mean either the DSS was severely incompetent in the last administration to the extent that they couldn't find members of the opposition to be corrupt or the administration itself was incompetent or scared to use it against political opponents and ensure they continue to stay in power and they are still incompetent for them not to be using it as a tool to discredit these government.
In the time when people's gazette and Sahara reporters are getting confidential information in the presidency and publishing it, they haven't been able to find any documents on these claims.

The issue in the north west is a consequence of this administration showing willingness to pay ransom to secure the release of the Dapchi school girls years ago. Criminal gangs are now getting motivated to take to kidnap for ransom, thankfully the attack on the NDA failed, they sure didn't attack the institution with the aim of kidnapping just one person.

That said, all boarding schools and other institutions with mass housing facilities in the Northwest and part of North Central should be shut for now. The bandits have been getting what they want for a long time now. It's time we started denying them what they want.
I believe they are common criminals that have been left for long to organize themselves and grow and not terrorists as all their demands up to this moment are economical and not political.
And then, the senate should request the presence of the service chiefs to come explain themselves and why security has been getting worse and what their plan actually on live TV(with important details omitted obviously).

Any governor serious with the security of his state in that axis should be engaging the services of volunteers and vigilantes. There are millions of people who are ready to volunteer. They should start a city/town at a time then move to the forests. There are thousands of collaborators in the cities benefiting from the ransom industry by giving information to the bandits.

This menace should be given the brutality it deserves.

kabe1:
How are US & Western interests protected if Embassies pack up and leave over night?

You have a weird concept of victory.

Continued supply of heroine to US pharmaceutical industries and access to rare earth metals particularly Lithium present in large quantities in Afghanistan. Access to other resources too. Embassies can be reopened within a month, the present situation could just be optics.
You do not have to have an absolute military victory for you to win a war.

RiceProducers:
We need to learn to think in terms of institutional core competences, capabilities, processes, standards and their maturity instead of personalities.

I find that we 3rd World countries are reluctant to grow out öf this mindset that glorifies persons instead of teams and institutions. The result is stagnation especially for a technical arm of our security architecture ühere systems and processes are everything

All you've listed and personality are not mutually exclusive, in fact they are complimentary. You can have powerful institutions with great capabilities, high standards, best practices and crown it with a leader of great personality as a multiplier to bring about maximum results.

I'm starting to realize that the US might have won the war in Afghanistan after all. What if they have reached an agreement with the Talibans in the months long dialogues on protecting US and western interests. I do not think they are that concerned about who rules the people of Afghanistan or the welfare of the people. They've always been there for their own selfish interests all along, only the people have had the illusion that they were there to protect them from the brutal rule of the Talibans.
Look at it this way, the US told Talibans they were going to start leaving by May 1st 2021, what did the Talibans concede to US go during the negotiations?

SamuelAnyawu:
The surrendering is just an internal fracas, tho my concern remains not seeing those surrendering with weaponry . As at a week ago the Airforce guys I chilled with said the Super Tucanos have not arrived Maiduguri.

Tho I’ll still get much info today as Sunday is our regular sit out.

I still Dey Maiduguri, hopefully I’ll get back to my Dambisa zone next.

The induction ceremony is by August 30th,maybe they will be deployed after then Sha but some of the support infrastructures are not yet completed.

DICON got license to produce beryl riffles and there allocation for the assembly line was even added to the budget and we are yet to see meaningful results. Many of our neighbors will be willing to buy the beryl.

Maybe DICON should be turned into a real company with FG as share holder through the defense ministry for the purpose of profit making. Maybe this will increase their productivity.

kabe1:
Nigerian Navy Locally built Supply Vessel

I believe it's time Nigeria started partnering with other developing countries to grow the defense industry.
South Africa has a lot to offer especially for the Army. DICON, NAMVC and proforce can grow exponentially and start producing IFVs and light tanks within 15 years if the right connections are made with SA defense military and industries. We can even get enough tech support to start an ordnance industry to produce artilleries, mortars and their ammunitions,missiles etc.
The airforce could also benefit from tech know how and start doing some aircraft maintenance that are normally done outside the country. They could also look into radars.

As for the navy, in addition to partnership with SA, we could also look into other countries like Singapore and Turkey.

Truth is that the military will still be dealing with major internal security issues a long time from now especially with the banditry issues in the northwest and growing the local defense industries will be of great value to the country.


It is amazing that as large as the defense budget of Egypt and Algeria is, there defense industry isn't that great we could have benefitted a lot from them too but they prefer to buy almost everything.

RiceProducers:
This is a clueless post. What's charisma?. How old are you posting this nonsense, dwelling on personalities and personal styles instead of looking at the strategy and plans which as not changed.
Optics is everything to the amateur.

Ordinarily, I wouldn't have replied you because your motive was to insult but there are things to learn from the post.

The post was totally about personalities as it is very apparent, I made no mention of strategy and plans so I do not know why you are attacking me. If you are not comfortable with some post, try to ignore once in a while, especially mine.

Meanwhile, personalities of leaders and officers also has a lot of effect on the outcome of battles and wars. Especially in relations to boosting the morale of troops which increases the effectiveness of any fighting force.
The high morale of troops was very palpable during the time of late Attahiru as COAS with many soldiers hailing him as a warrior and one who empathize with Frontline troops and who is willing to end the war unlike many of his predecessors who soldiers thought were profiting from the insurgency. This resulted into victories such as recapturing marte and environs within 48hrs.

Not too long ago, we saw videos of troops abandoning their positions and fleeing with civilians because they weren't ready to die for what they feel is as a result of some people's selfish interests. Some even went as far as attacking their officers.

Charisma is when you do almost the same thing as your predecessors yet the troops are willing to take your excuses and endure your failures while they took it against your predecessors.
Optics play an important role in winning battles when the troops feel you are also willing to lay down your own life for the same purpose as them and you understand what they are going through and willing to improve things.
More importantly, personality play an important role when the troops believe you are one of theirs and you are trying all your best in pursuit of their interests.

The president not attending the burial of his chief of army staff has also made many soldiers believe he doesn't care whether they live or die, that is also optics.


In summary, there is what is called Psychological warfare that deals with the mental emotional and behavioral characteristics of troops, enemies and people at large and it is aimed at manipulating the behaviors and attitudes of those targeted in a way that will be favorable to the originators objectives. Personality and optics play very important roles in this.

kabe1:
Is it just me, or have anyone else noticed Western countries and their militaries are running a massive propaganda campaign with regards to the evacuation flights we are seeing.

Clarissa Ward is chasing the Oscar awards with the way she's acting the script.

I just miss S.B Abubakar anyhow these days. This new CAS isn't awe inspiring at all. In fact none of the new service chiefs are. Ibrahim Attahiru of blessed memory was also awesome, especially with that order to recapture Marte and clear the general area within 48hrs. L.E.O Irabor is definitely the right man for his job, far better than Abayomi Olonisakin but still not as charismatic as S.B Abubakar. I really miss that man

youghs:
The counter has started, they took 3 districts from the Taliban yesterday

The offensive that they were unable to launch 20 years ago with US support to defeat the Taliban and liberate all territories.
The Taliban are currently consolidating power in important regions to ensure that their authority in those regions is unchallenged for long. Once they are done with forming a strong government in the center, they will have time for these others.
The politics behind the handing over of the country to the Taliban is crazy

Mala Musa*, 66, still lives in Bama – a former wealthy businessman, his home was next door to the house Aliyu had requisitioned during the occupation. Musa specifically remembers Aliyu driving through the streets, flanked by bodyguards on motorbikes.

He didn’t personally witness Aliyu shooting anybody, but his heartfelt assessment was: “All Boko Haram kill. They’re wicked. Anybody saying otherwise is lying.” And it’s not just the killing he grieves over. As the Nigerian army was about to retake the town in 2015, Boko Haram trucked all the women they had forcibly married – or intended to in the future – to Sambisa.

“They took even underage girls, some as young as 10 or 11,” said Musa. Among those abducted were his wife and all of his daughters, none of whom he has seen since. Then they torched the houses, Musa’s included. “I lost everything,” he said. “Those were terrible months.”

I wish stories like this could be broadcasted across Nigeria, maybe those about to make the same mistakes will have a rethink.
A tour of the cities, towns and villages affected by the insurgency and also life in the IDP camps should also be broadcasted. Movies should be made from these events.


In trurh, all aspects of the Nigerian society should have learnt from this war.
Bad governance was the spark
Brutality from security and law enforcement forces ignited and is still fueling the crisis
Stupidity on the part of the people also contributed.

Unfortunately, we are seeing something similar starting to play out in the northwest .

It’s not an easy conversation. Uppermost in any potential defector’s mind is the fear of being sent to Giwa Barracks, a notorious detention facility on the edge of a quiet Maiduguri suburb. “Everyone is afraid of that place, and the people in the lake [Chad] don’t trust the government [won’t send them there],” said Aliyu. “If it wasn’t for Giwa, more would come – [the abuse that happens there] is the biggest mistake the military has made.”

https://humanglemedia.com/nigerias-secret-programme-to-lure-top-boko-haram-defectors/



Read the whole article and let's have a discussion about it by 9pm.



Personally, I believe the sulhu program is a great idea to end the conflict but those who played key roles in attrocities shouldn't be left unpunished. The program should be targeted at those more moderate among them.
It would definitely be extended to some of the monsters among them in the initial phase so as to lure more to take the option. It is the price we have to ensure the war ends soon.

The war has destroyed so much lives, its time to sacrifice for peace.

No one can say for sure that those that surrendered around in Ajiri are ex JAS fighters as it is far away from former JAS strongholds and it is an area where ISWAP has a lot of influence. So they are most likely ISWAP fighters or at least villagers.
Definitely, ISWAP will find a way to use the surrendering and amnesty program to their advantage but the truth is that they will lose the most. The fact that their fighters now have an alternative to dying in battle or at most living under ISWAP rule with very poor standard of living and constant bombardment by the airforce, many especially among the older generation will definitely consider the third option of surrendering. It is sure that many among those that are surrendering will return to fight with the terrorists but if as much as 50% are true to the terms of their amnesty, the program is a success. It is up to the authorities to make sure that those among the surrendering fighters that still have doubts or have sinister motives are convinced while passing through the program.

It will be foolish to expect ISWAP to allow these fighters and villagers take along with them weapons and other items valuable to ISWAP while going to surrender to government hence the quantity and quality of weapons being surrendered.

Come the dry season offensive, ISWAP will either be forced to defend the territories captured from JAS which will spread them thin or be forced to consolidate their strengths in places important to them. Either way, the military should find it easier to dislodge them from most of their territories.

I expect ISWAP to be stockpiling fuel and other logistics that will be used during the dry season offensive. I expect intelligence agencies to be working towards knowing where their warehouses are located and also supply routes so that they can be destroyed and which will blunt their offensive.