Gold has broken the higher low on the daily signaling a start of the decline.


Closed the monthly as a pinbar at the 44 years trendline. After the first touch of the trendline was a decline of about 69% to the higher low which took 20 years. After the second touch had about 45% decline which took 4 years. I now expect a decline of about 24% in a few months. This all depends on the April high being confirmed as a swing high.

Well both didn’t touch my AOI before moving.

What I will be looking out for.

Supply looking strong. Alot of people anticipating the halving tomorrow but i think this time will be different. Lets see how it goes.

Davigle:
To be honest mates, being right or wrong doesn't really matter, what matters is that one should always be adaptive in cases where your analysis turns out to be wrong. We are always trying to do the impossible in this market every day when we analyse our charts and that is predicting the future. being adaptive does help a lot in changing market conditions. whether gold's gaps up or not, I'm definitely going to be adaptive, if it fails to go up, then I'll accept I'm wrong and then follow it down to the next support zone which is 2320. cheers

Las las

Davigle:


I understand your point of view but do you know that the fundamentals that really affect commodities market are different from the crypto markets and don't forget that the commodities market is one of the oldest market in the world, they've been existing ever since b4 the creation of cryptocurrencies. things like supply and demand and geopolitics really does affect this market. ah don't know about crypto because they haven't been around for that long

Yea i get what u are saying. I know gold does well during times of crisis and war but only when investors consider it a safe haven, a risk on asset. What has been driving gold prices higher is the expectation of rate cuts from the fed but with the continues increase of inflation, that expectation has being dying down making the US dollar more attractive. At the beginning of the year it was 6 rate cuts that was expected this year, a month ago it dropped to 3 and now nobody knows. I may be wrong though.

Davigle:


Ogami see the link ooo;

https://video.genyt.net/OnALtKZfaxE

Omo d way ah dey pray make Iran strike Israel so that gold can gap up 2moro ehn 🙏, pls am not a bad pesin ooo, I'm just a greedy trader 🤣🤣🤣

this days my ear no fit hear war without thinking about gold.... 🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️🏃🏿‍♂️

U are expecting gold to gap up and be bullish because of the news of war but are u seeing what that news is doing to BeeTeeCee (crypto in general)? Somehow I expect the news to favour the US dollar(with looking at the structure) and weapons manufacturer's stocks.

DXY

We have seen that change of structure.

BeeTeeCee

So far the supply is holding but until I see a Lower Low before i would consider the supply strong.

XAUUSD

I am not really interested in timing the top of this cycle (which we might have seen) but rather the demand for the next bull run which i plan to enter the market.

GOLD
looks to me like price wants attack the ATH at 2222, which would me that i was wrong about it being the high of the cycle. When it attacks the ATH, a close above it would mean bulls are still in the game. A close below it and sellers take over.


BeeTeeCee
A break or close above the ATH and supply would mean buyers are still in the game. Else sellers takeover.

105 is the level for DXY bulls to take out to change structure. This supports my analysis on gold.

XAUTrader4L2:
Gold is in a bubble with this move this week. The top is close for the bullish move that started from the October low. Obviously i wouldnt be a buyer now, the low 1800's is still my POI.

There is a high probability we have seen the top.

Gold is in a bubble with this move this week. The top is close for the bullish move that started from the October low. Obviously i wouldnt be a buyer now, the low 1800's is still my POI.

PIPSMARSHALL:


What fundamentals is causing this. Fri and mon( today) candles are strong bulls

One of the fed members spoke on friday and with the economic data, traders are expecting a rate cut soon and start of QE. Powell and NFP are key this week to confirm it though.

Modified: infact all the red news this week.

Gold had a big bullish move this week and i have my reservations about it.
1. Dxy didnt move this week.
2. We have not yet seen the low 1800's in gold.

Starting to feel like another 1st December and 4th December 2023 kind of scenario, but then again we trade what we see.

Davigle:


Spot on sire, gold definitely to 1980 and below then

Yes, thats the plan.

VeeVeeMyLuv:

Okay
thanks for the update 👍

👍

VeeVeeMyLuv:

How?
Still the same.

Nigeria govt banned their website

The website is now fxtmngdotcom

I don't trade chart patterns but looking at the retest and rejection of this broken triangle while waiting for confirmation of a lower high is interesting.

Davigled:


Fxtm and octafx

Fxtm changed their website domain.

Davigled:
In my humble opinion, I believe gold is bullish on both the monthly and weekly timeframe, that's the longer term perspective, but on the short to medium term perspective, (daily and below) it's bearish. this is because it is certain that the Fed are going to cut rates this year, this is bullish for all risk asset class, but the questions remains when will the Fed start cutting rates? no one knows except the Fed, and the Fed has continuously stated that they will cut rates only after they are fully convinced that inflation in the US is consistently on the path to their 2% target. last week CPI and other inflation data spiked up after a period of decline, this has spark worries of inflation being sticky, I.e struggling to decline towards the Fed target. As long as inflation is still hot and the US economy remains buoyant especially the labour market, the Fed won't cut rates. This is the narrative that gives strength to the dollar. Why is it bearish for Gold, remember that gold is a safe haven and also a risk asset, and it's demand tends to rise in periods of economic recession and geopolitical tensions, and other black swan events in the market, so its demand always rises when there's trouble in the financial market due to fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD) but as long as the global economy is still performing well, the demand for gold will be low, hence bearish market for gold, US economy is still the largest economy in the world and makes up a large portion of the global economy, and yet it's still really strong compared to her rivals, there's no need for investors to be afraid or any reason for investors to put their investments into safe haven assets. So Dollar bulls until the Fed start cutting rates....

Nice take, just that the global economy is not doing well. Japan and UK just officially entered a recession and US own is coming. What people are looking out for now is inflation and rate cut and from the last CPI, expectations of rate cut has significantly reduced especially for the March FOMC. This in turn will fuel the dollar and put a pressure on gold. We will know more about rate cut either the June or July meeting.

Fxwarrior:


Check monthly and weekly.
The risk is always there whether you buy or sell.

Any buy is a correction to me. The trend is bearish.

Read up touch down analysis. Watch Dapo Willis on YouTube. Good luck.

I beg to differ, those timeframes are still bullish. Just the daily that is now bearish.

Davigled:


Possibly gold to 1930

lower than that for me.

We now have a change of structure signalling the start of the decline in gold. The low from this decline should be the low of the year and even years to come.

From the way i see it, gold is not making higher highs anymore. It is squeezing, expecting a breakout next.

Gold has being in a range since the ATH, a break of the recent higher low should see gold in a decline to the demand zone for more buyer momentum. Break of the recent lower high and it keeps going higher. I favor the downside.

Happy new year fellow traders. I pray this year is more profitable for us.

Break of the recent higher low for a lower low.

With that Monday reversal, i see gold starting a new weekly decline with the bottom at the demand zone. A break of the higher low will confirm this and also change of structure. It bothered me that the demand zone was never retested but with that huge Monday reversal, my mind is at rest because it tells me that bulls are not yet ready for a rally above the previous ATH.

.

With the change of structure, I will be looking out for a bullish move (higher low) out of the demand zone.

XAUTrader4L2:
My entry when the market opens. Closing the week with an inverted hammer at demand zone.

SL got hit. One of the problems of a friday signal, candles really do tell a story. Waiting for today's close.

rhynoemmie:


Thought I was the only one expecting a bearish dollar in the near future..

Excellent charting boss

The patience to wait for trades like this is not child’s play at all

Baba you are not alone. Thanks