₦airaland Forum

abduleez1:
Really didn't matter.... The film was massively flopping and had no LEGS either way.
Super Mario Bros was announced for digital in just two weeks of debuting and still cleaned out the box office cash available.
Even with the movie out for digital one month after debut, it still popped up at the box office.. Universal animation movies have been doing that since COVID and they still go on to make big bucks.

I get you, but personally, I feel the movie should have been given one more week before this announcement, in other not to discourage those that wants to see it.

The additional revenues would have aided in complementing revenues from home videos and PVOD. I just hope with this announcement, the movie can still pull some cash to complement home video and PVOD revenues.


#Xavier
#DCian

abduleez1:
I dunno how to explain this and matching the sarcasm of the post and making it fun. 🙃 Anyways....

It's about the marketing strategy of upcoming films Barbie & Oppenheimer. Barbie has tons of marketing in both merchandise, custom sets and almost anything you can think of and it looks like Oppenheimer got no promo at all for its fans.


Since Oppenheimer is a biopic about the nuclear scientist who created the atomic bomb and consequently led to tens of thousands of people losing their lives for the war to end — it makes it practically impossible to literally replicate the type of marketing Barbie has.

Unless one plan on actually replicating a way to detonate a nuke and making it look realistic for fans without actually detonating a live nuclear bomb. 💣

Either ways, the Oppenheimer fans are certain of earning total misery or mutually assured destruction if Oppenheimer takes its marketing literally. 😂😂

It's just cruise amongst fans tho.

Okay now I get 😂😂😂.

As for Barbie, they should minimize marketing cost ohhh, the box office is volatile this year. Going with the movie's production budget of $100M, I hope they don't spend too much on marketing thus making its BEP to exceed $300M. That may not be good for it.

Sha, I don't know the degree of anticipation for the movie among the audience and Barbie's fans. To me, I'm not hyped for the movie thanks to its childish and girlish trailer.


#Xavier

.

😎😎😎😎😎

I guess DC is being represented...

To whom it may concern...

Whatever tiny tweeny shot it had at the box office is erased. People will prefer to wait for its digital release instead of going to the cinema.

Left to me, they shouldn't have announced it yet until after next week or so. Nothing wrong in porting to digital, but they shouldn't have announced the plan now.


#Xavier
#DCian

Hit or miss...

Doesn't matter if you ask me. So far the DC film brand is unstable due to audience and fans lack of interest and faith in it, the position of any DC film doesn't affect its low success possibility.

DC should focus more on building a brand instead of making money for now.


#Xavier
#DCian

abduleez1:

I don't get, can you please explain?

abduleez1:
I swear bro.... Many of them will fit DCU.

They're already super popular with the show. Funny thing is, most of them won't cost us much money since they ain't A-list. Easy way to gain more fandom from previous projects or actors.

We've just been going after actors without thinking of the big picture. No strategy into pooling fans from other fandoms. That's why DC is suffering partly, cos it's too fvvking homogeneous. No star power whatsoever asides from a few main characters.

Imagine what the fandom of GOT or HOTD will do for DC especially when you realise GOT fans are one of the most dedicated fandom. They'd whine and complain sometimes but they always turned up just as they did for HOTD. And I'm suspecting such goodwill spread into TLOU that allowed the horror show to even outgun HOTD in terms of viewership.

Gbam. Same thing on my mind.


#Xavier
#DCian

abduleez1:
I don't want to sound rude but it seems you're new to box office collection analysis.
Movies earn around 70% of their box office in their first two-three weeks, especially post COVID.

The pessimism from many people here is not unfounded or just for fun. It's from analysis from top Hollywood box office experts.

Even me that ain't an expert can see when a movie is definitely bombing just by merely looking at its first and second weekend cumes and drops.

Dropping -75% on second weekend box office for a worldwide debut that isn't even big in the first place calls for alarm.
If Flash debuted to $250mn and above at the BO then it wouldn't be so bizarre seeing it drop over 70% on weekend #2.
This movie has no fvvking LEGS. If it had, then maybe you'd be right and we're all delusional. I'm actually surprised it's taking you this long to realise that.

This movie ain't smelling break even point when all is said and done.
WBD will be seriously praying it does well at VOD and DVD sales to recoup their investment.

Of course I know that, but to me, I tend to give films what I call "the benefit of doubt" period. I did it for MoS, BvS, JL, Shazam and lots of others. For the Flash, I'm giving it two weeks.


#Xavier
#DCian

abduleez1:
The guy optimism dey fear me...
And I think say I be Captain Optimist. 😟😢


Even new film and useless rom-com that nobody watches anymore like No Hard Feelings is beating out the Flash. You gotta be fearful.

Imagine Elemental picking up steam and beating out Flash.

Funny enough, I'm not being optimistic, I'm just being realistic. That's why I don't rely on prophecies of doom or unnecessary hype. I prefer the subsequent weeks to determine the fate of films. That has always been my attitude towards the box office performance of films, and The Flash is no exception. To me, the next two to three weeks will cement the fate of The Flash, not now.


#Xavier
#DCian

SMUAG:
Was Suicide Squad too not having the MCU vibes. My point is not even close to the billion it made, but the fact that the first 5 to 6 dceu movies have more of a connection also contributed great help to its success. Even if BvS did not make the money we all thought it will, it was still the BvS that connected and gave birth to Aquaman movie.
Like for me, aside the connection I was mostly eager to see it because that was the first time we will be seeing a movie that would be like 95% underwater likewise many people too...
But is it just a coincidence that these (6) movies are still the most highest grossing DCEU movies till date, and the only 2 movies outside the DCEU that can actually fall into that category did not even follow anything related to the MCU.
10yrs later still non of the dceu mcu-wannabe movies can actually do better by out selling MoS that we all called below average movie and was also very divisive...

My take is, the biggest mistake was trying to make the DCEU an else world MCU.

TonySpike:
Yeah, they shouted back then,

"DCEU is too dark and broody",
"The colour palette is too bland"
"Comic book movies should not be serious"

Today, we have DC movies being opposites of these and yet nobody is watching these "marvel-like" movies again. Lol...

The real problem here wasn't the tone being used, but the lack of cohesion and progression in the DCEU or Hamada era. These made the audience and fanbase lose interest and faith in the franchise. The Snyder era despite its controversies was cohesive and progressive.

Truth be told, a lighter or balanced toned, cohesive and progressive DCEU would have performed well better than the Snyder era, but unfortunately the franchise lacked cohesion and progression. When you add these to the instability of the franchise, there's definitely bound to be audience apathy towards the franchise.

To fix this, Gunn should focuse on building a balanced toned (for the purpose of diversity), cohesive, progressive and stable DCU. With this, you reinstate audience and fans interest and faith in the franchise.

Truth be told, to fix the franchise isn't hard, what is needed is guts, patience, sacrifice, resilience and franchise plan. I just hope Gunn and Zaslav have these.


#Xavier
#DCian

.

Minemrys:
Divide that by 2. WB still haven't gotten investors money in the project. You think the movie is going to make an additional 300? Hehehe, you should be Superman. I love your optimism.

The coming weeks will decide that. Instead of screaming doom, wait for things to flesh themselves out. With the whole doom noise, one will think Flash was not even going to smell $200M in its second week just like Black Adam and Birds of Prey, but newsflash, that isn't the case.

I don't always join doomers or hypers when box office is concern because I know how unstable and unpredictable the box office system is. I instead wait for the coming weeks to decide the fate of films, and that's what I'm doing with the Flash.

Shey, this is how they were screaming with Captain Marvel and Joker, what later happened?

Prophecy of doom or unnecessary hype to me is insignificant, they're just noise. They don't determine the performance of a film, the subsequent weeks does. So take a chick pill, and let things sort themselves out.


#Xavier
#DCian

The Flash currently sits at 210.9M from $139M opening at the box office, not the ideal for a movie of its calibre, but a far cry from the prophecy of doom all over the net.

That's why I always said, let the coming weeks determine the performance of the movie. Who knows, things may go positive.


#Xavier
#DCian

SMUAG:
From the day I saw it I knew it will tank heavily but few of us thought it was the haters that were spreading negative words of mouth...
It's somehow crazy that the first three movies that were heavily criticise and few (like WW and Aquaman) that tied to those movies were the ones that actually did better throughout the DCEU period, while the fun and enjoyable movies are the ones struggling to even get to their BEP. Very funny...
Herculean task for Gunn now...

More reason why Gunn needs to focus on building a brand by consistently progressing on the planned saga irrespective of the performance of the first set of films. Emphasis should be on brand creation instead of money making. This was what Marvel did, and this is what the previous WB/DC management failed to do.

When the brand is created, commercial success will be a walk in the park.

Seriously, to make the DCU successful isn't hard, it's all about the guts, resilience and sacrifice to do it. I hope that's Gunn perspective.



#Xavier
#DCian

Okay...

No P, but is that in line with Gunn's plan?...

Things haven't fully started, rumors have started flying...

IngeniousLeez:
Of course I know some movies financials mean 3x multiplier for production budget, that's why I say 2.5x is the general or average industry standard and don't always apply to some films.

No Time To Die BEP of $900mn smells inflated to me. I heard of the stuff then but I don't believe its that high even with COVID delays inflating the costs.
And that's why I wait months after to get the true picture when the dust regarding a project settles. The studio MGM also disputed the claims.

Deadline and Variety are the ones good at calculating Hollywood financials. Forbes are good for predicting box office cume. THR is mainly great at general industry scoops or insider info.

It was amazing engaging with you, I've learnt some things. Looking forward to doing more of this 😎.



#Xavier
#DCian

IngeniousLeez:
Lol, you're free to believe what you want bro.

Leads into the DCU does not mean it's part of the DCU or important to the DCU lore.

I've also been following every single DC news there is so I know what I'm saying.

If they were so connected why would Gunn be referring to Blue Beetle as the first character of the DCU instead of straight up just saying it's the first DCU film.

He already said Superman Legacy is DCU first film and Blue Beetle the DCU first character.
They don't mean the same thing.

All these ones now are just to not de-market this year's films because of what they're seeing regarding The Flash.

I'm echoing what Gunn said. If you think otherwise, you take up the argument with him. If the person in charge of the franchise states that Aquaman 2 set after the event of The Flash (which reboots the franchise) is part of the DCU due to it leading into Superman: Legacy, then I wonder what the argument is.

Even James Wan stated that he edited Aquaman 2 to fit into the DCU.

If Aquaman 2 wasn't part of the DCU;
1.) Why is it set after the event of the Flash, why not before it?
2.) Why did James Wan have to edit it to fit into the DCU?
3.) Why did Gunn state it leads into Superman: Legacy.
4.) If leading into Superman: Legacy does not make it part of the DCU, then how does it then lead into the DCU? Another reboot? That's ridiculous.
5.) Bluee Beetle being mentioned as the first DCU character shows that its movie, set after the event of the Flash (which reboots the franchise) is set in the DCU. Little wonder why it is self contained.

Initially, my idea was that Aquaman 2 was set in an alternate timeline different from the DCU (the same one as Ezra Miller and George Clooney), but when Gunn stated it leads into the DCU coupled with James Wan editing of it, that theory didn't make any sense, the only rational concept was its DCU setting.

He already said Superman Legacy is DCU first film and Blue Beetle the DCU first character.
They don't mean the same thing.

Yeah, he said that, and he also said its the DCU first film that Aquaman 2 (not The Flash that reboots the DCEU into the DCU) leads into. In other words, Superman: Legacy is the first actual film under the DCU banner, but universe wise, it isn't. Aquaman 2 and Blue Beetle, especially Aquaman 2, who are left overs/ crossovers from the DCEU are.
Superman: Legacy is the first film with him in total control unlike Aquaman 2 and Blue Beetle that are the products of Hamada, Ann and Kilar. This is something we need to understand.

All these ones now are just to not de-market this year's films because of what they're seeing regarding The Flash.

Funny enough, his statement about Aquaman 2 being in the DCU thus leading into Superman: Legacy was first made in January during the presentation of his planned films. This was months before Shazam 2 and The Flash were even released. So the whole marketing/ de-marketing idea isn't the whole reason, it is a part of it, but not the absolute reason.


#Xavier
#DCian

IngeniousLeez:
Lol, all what you've just said here is grossly inaccurate.

In my initial post I was telling you the total cost of the projects just by calculating the production cost + marketing cost alone.
I never discussed break even point with you.

Even if we want to go into BEP, your estimates is still overly inaccurate and overbloated.

The general standard to calculating BEP is usually prod cost + marketing+ distribution. These days the formula is usually multiplying the prod cost by 2.5 and you get a rough estimate of BEP for each movie. of course some movie don't stick to this standard but it's the average and general rule of thumb.

Now I get what you mean, you were calculating promotion cost as just marketing budget. I guess I misunderstood you, that's why I had to state that marketing goes beyond just promotion cost but also included miscellaneous cost of which i personally do put distribution cost as a part of.

And talking about total cost, I made it clear that by production budget, I meant production cost + tax cost + miscellaneous cost, and by marketing budget, I meant promotion cost +miscellaneous cost (which I personally do include distribution cost as part of). That was why I said the maximum total cost of $400M for DCU films should entail the above.

A Hollywood analytical body with access to studio info have given the total breakdown of costs associated to The Batman and it's nowhere near your estimates. I know who to believe.


Studios don't publicly publish their financials for movies but there's also insiders and rival companies who can estimate a projects spend with good accuracy since they all deal in the same industry. It's not as if everything they do is in total secrecy and everyone not involved in the projects are oblivious to.

The Batman total expenditure calculated by Deadline puts it at $458mn, so it's BEP is $458mn.
Not the bogus amount you posted there.

Talking about BEP, I just checked the Deadline data and I discovered their data was published on 6th April 2023.
My BEP estimate for The Batman ($550M to $600M) was the estimate of/ from last year, I think from Forbes or The Hollywood Reporter, I've forgotten which of them. I wasn't aware of this recent data from deadline.

Talking about the multiplier BEP formula. 2.5x multiplier doesn't actually cover the BEP of movies because there are films whose BEP is way beyond the 2.5x multiplier.
No Time To Die for example, as of December last year, had a BEP of $900M against a production budget of $301M. Going with the 2.5x multiplier, its BEP should be around $753M, but that's a far cry from its actual BEP. The 3x multiplier covered its BEP.

Truth is, BEPs range from 1x to 3x multiplier. 3x multiplier being the highest any movie has to make to break even. It can never exceed that. That's why lots of industry experts uses the 3x multiplier, it's more reliable and inclusive than the 2.5x multiplier making it the maximum and standard multiplier.
Yes, lots of industry experts go with the 2.5x multiplier, but that doesn't really cover the BEP of some films e.g No Time To Die, but 3x multiplier does.



#Xavier
#DCian

IngeniousLeez:
This is cap right here. 🧢

Both The Batman and The Little Mermaid total production and marketing costs don't exceed $400mn.


The Batman production cost was $185-200mn and marketing cost was $135mn. So the total got you at $335mn. NB: The Batman original budget was $100mn, but COVID disruption and delays ballooned the cost to double.

TLM prod cost is $250mn + marketing budget of $150mn; that gets you $400mn.
Even The Flash massive budget has a marketing cap of over $100mn. The overall total gets you to $330mn.


There's rarely any blockbuster movie that spends $200mn in marketing. Even Avatar: The Way of The Water with its humongous production budget spent $175mn for marketing.

First of all, I used the word "maximum" for a reason. That's the highest they can or should ever reach. In other words, most of the films will be beneath that.

Secondly, the profit we are talking about here is gross profit, which is revenue minus cost. And not net profit, which we all know is revenue minus expenditures.

Thirdly, your analysis is inaccurate because your BEP estimate of The Batman and The Little Mermaid are inaccurate.
Batman had a BEP of $550M to $600M, while The Little Mermaid has a BEP of $560M.
So you see, your BEP estimate isn't accurate.

Of course, BEP is production cost + marketing cost. And when we talk of marketing, we are talking of promotion cost and miscellaneous cost.

Truth is, Studios do not truly reveal the real marketing cost (promotion + miscellaneous cost). This is why the BEP of most films aren't known thus making industry analysts to go with the 3x multiplier to determine film's BEPs.

To know the actual marketing cost of a film, deduct its production cost from its stated or published BEP. For e.g
The Batman's actual marketing cost is $550M to $600M minus $200M which gives us $350M to $400M.
The Little Mermaid actual marketing cost is $560M minus $250M which gives us $310M.

NOTE: Marketing cost here means promotion cost + miscellaneous cost.

There are lots of behind the scene cost the studio does not inform the public about, hence the reason for the high BEPs.

So when I said maximum production budget of $200M for DCU films, I meant the maximum amount that should be spent on production, tax and miscellaneous shouldn't exceed $200M.

And when I said maximum marketing budget of $200M for DCU films, I meant the maximum amount that should be spent for promotion and miscellaneous shouldn't exceed $200M.

With this, you get an ACTUAL maximum BEP of $400M, but this won't be so if WBD/DC have miscellaneous cost, both in production and marketing, that they keep off the public knowledge. With this the ACTUAL BEPs of the films are bound to exceed $400M.

I hope you get what I meant.


#Xavier
#DCian

IngeniousLeez:
This is a massive dub....

Aquaman 2 isn't in the DCU just like Blue Beetle isn't. These are just corporate talk not to de-market the movie who feel less invested since the universe is ending.

Blue Beetle will be the first character for the DCU but it doesn't mean its in the DCU since it was finished filming even before Gunn became president. And there have been no reshoots.

Although, it can be worked out in the future to fit into the DCU, since it was produced mainly as a standalone and far removed from the dead DCEU.

Well, tell that to the studio executives. Even Gunn admitted that. According to Gunn, The Flash leads to Aquaman 2, and Aquaman 2 leads into Superman: Legacy.

But if you still think otherwise, then you should take it up with Gunn. I'm only echoing what Gunn said.

Never forget, Blue Beetle is self contained, while James Wan stated that Aquaman 2 underwent editing to fit into the DCU.

As I said, I'm only echoing what Gunn said.


#Xavier
#DCian

If Aldis Hodge is no longer playing Hawkman in the DCU, I will love him to play John Stewart.

Also, I will love Chris Pine to be a part of the DCU.

Pierce Brosnan will be a good Deathstroke though.


#Xavier
#DCian

.

.

For the game enthusiast...

😎😎😎😎😎

It seems Russell Crowe has found his purpose in being the father of super beings 😂😂😂😂😂.