₦airaland Forum

Phlinx:
case of the glass being half full or half empty. while some are saying "sell-off" others are saying "buy-in"

Lol.
I think it's because fundamentally, nothing is wrong with some of the stocks.......while at the same time, fear of unknown/hunt for bargain is prevailing.


Chai! Someone says I always have answer for many things. Lol. Make una no mind me o. Just airing my view from my amateur perspective. Could be right, could be wrong.

Dum20:
what is happening is normal and expected. I do not think it has to do with the CBN announcement.

The supposed Bull we had in the past 3 weeks was reaction to First Quarter results. That tempo is cooling down. The next up swing should be about mid june in anticipation of 2nd quarter results and some companies paying dividend. It should last till mid july and there will be a slight depression after that.
This has been the trend in the past.

Things have changed.
Trends are changing.
Global events are taking more centre stage since COVID-19 period.......
This sell off was triggered by the CBN's MPR rate announcement yesterday.
Suppose any favourable policy or news comes up now, market direction would again change.......the companies are trying despite the harsh economic environment.

GTCO and ZENITH
Sometimes one would just wonder what's actually the problem with these two....
Ironically the two stocks with the highest dividend yield in NSE......Aside MEYER topping the list......

Sometimes the "non-popular" stocks even have shock absorber pass them....

Bearishness on the floor due to the insensitivity of the Apex bank........
ZEE, GTCO, WAPCO, VITAFOAM, UCAP, NAHCO, and few other ones leading the race.....
Opportunity presenting itself......
* Market may stabilize sooner than expected........bargainers showing up and on queue at the bottom of the bid tables......

Btw, where are the bear crew self?

onegentleguy:
• What was the yield on risk-free securities (fixed income mkt) then, and how does it compare to that of recent times... and the passthrough impact looking at the global financial mkt?

The mkt will rise beyond this policy. Really nothing to fret about bro.
As I said before; any pullback in the next couple of days should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys.

Thanks sir for shedding more light on this.
You've always been helpful when it comes to analyses. God bless.

The more the prices shed, the better for fundamentally sound stocks. Guess that's why some were/are pulling out to re-position much lower.
How low can these go is another question best answered by the dumpers.

Div yield for ZENITH @24 for instance currently stood @12.89%; GTCO @23 =12.77%; UBA @7.95 = 12.58%; Mansard @2.04 = 11.09%, UCAP @13.50 = 10.99%; FIDELITY next, ACCESS next; etc.

Lol. NSEMPAs don't mind me o.
I tried to break down/understand things from my primary school perspective cos those professional jargons, me no dey too understand am.
Someone already insulted me in the past, say I dey post like primary school pupil with primary school English........na the language I understand, make the person no vex.

Wapgod:
Abeg what is the meaning of these MRP and its increase to those of us wey no Sabi finance

This explanation is more like it:

VEHIN.TOLAR:
The CBN wants to reduce the volume of cash in circulation. It is a way of mopping up excess cash in circulation in an attempt to force down prices of commodities or simply put,to reduce inflation. Inflation basically, is a situation whereby too much cash/money is chasing after few goods which pushes up the prices of these goods.
Therefore,to reverse this trend,the CBN will increase rates so as to encourage people to save their excess cash. This can be done in different numbers of ways - FG Bonds,Fixed deposit,Term deposit etc. When MPR is increased,interests payable to those bank customers who have FD,TD or those who buy FG Bonds increase as well.

Also read here:
https://dailytrust.com/explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-cbns-interest-rate-policy-and-its-economic-effect
https://www.nairaland.com/7142704/cbn-raises-mpr-13-11.5/1

Lol. Me self was reading to understand its implications the more.
Think it should have little or no negative effect on our market in my understanding.

Those CBN guys aren't serious. What about the dollars the politicians already stacked for elections? How can that be controlled? Clueless setup.

RabbiDoracle:
I don't think there will be much negative effect on Emerging markets stocks as EMs try to combat inflation by raising rates.

All you need to watch is the global devaluation of the dollar that is about to happen/happening. This devaluation will give all EMs the needed boost.

Thanks sir.

I think those holding fundamental stocks should just not panic anyhow.
We've seen these things happened and at the end, we'll realize the fear being created is not worth it.
Sometimes, analysts over-analyze issues,forgetting we are in NSE/Nigeria where another rule can just come up overnight to overule the existing one....

This is NSE. We're not in NYSE. That's why sometimes I can be perceived as too optimistic. If prices goes down, it will again go up ni. Time to control emotions.

Those rushing out are doing so with the believe to re-enter cheaper, the system that may end up disappointing them. Though some are actually taking profits anyway.

I come in peace.

Emndy:
While looking at the returns, always consider the risks. A well diversified portfolio is always helpful.

I understood the need to diversify, that's not really my point, but just curious because of the way some were dumping choice stocks, that hope it's not out of ignorance.
They may come back to buy higher later.

Talking about the raised interest rate to 13%, don't we think there'll be less borrowing and NGX be more attractive??

If TB rate increases, can it still match the ROI on some selected stocks coupled with possible price appreciation Y-O-Y view?

Let's hope people are not interpreting the whole thing upside down..

UACN
50M single Cross deal @12.90.....

CBN raises MPR to 13% from 11.5%
https://nairametrics.com/2022/05/24/cbns-monetary-policy-committee-raises-interest-rate-to-13/?amp=1

Market will stabilize after the fearfuls dumping stocks exit......

Some prefer TB rates while some still prefer stocks......
Small time, dem go dey creep back into the market again....
Maybe the plan is to crash stock prices so they can come to mop cheaply, Mr. Market has the final say here...
Make Una no mind me, I no be Financial expert.

ACCESSCORP
Getting serious attention.....in terms of volume.....
Seems there's renewed interest from investors...

Market is just there today, dull and boring.......

LASACO is out...
Q4 2021 Audited...
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36060_LASACO_ASSURANCE_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR.pdf

Q1 2022....
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36062_LASACO_ASSURANCE_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT.pdf

CONOIL, MRS, MCNICHOLS : Topped gainers chart for today 23/5/22......
Cc: @Nigerialabalaba

**Caveat: Just market update**

Mpeace:
I think they need to change this bulk 100k rule. Haba. So Airtel need single N160,000,000 deal to move whereas some non performing insurance stocks will move with only N200k deal. Not fair at all

That was the rule before it was made general for all stocks.....
Think it was to avert manipulations of the big cap stocks.......

Before, it was just 10,000units that can move big caps but there seems to be lots of irregularities and manipulations there.
So whosoever wants to manipulate will think twice once it's now 100k units......

One good thing about the 100k rule is that prices of big caps can't just be falling anyhow once it's up.......unlike the small caps.

AIRTEL
Sighted @1,600!!
.....but no bulk 100k to move the price yet......

MRS: 14.95.....Up with +1.35......

FCMB, GTCO?

NAHCO: Getting some attention @6.50...

Dum20:
And it is a good sign right?

Not really. Not always.
Sometimes, it could be a trap.......
Sometimes it could be a sign of good things to come in that stock......
Sometimes it could lead to increased activities and share price increase.......
Sometimes it's just cross deals, and nothing more....

NEM
2021 FYE Dividend paid.
Is there no poster with NEM here? As I didn't see any alert post. Lol.
Make Una pay your tithe o.

PRESCO
Corporate announcement..
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36055_PRESCO_PLC%20CORPORATE_ACTIONS_ANNOUNCEMENTS_CORPORATE_A.pdf

PRESCO Q1:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36056_PRESCO_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_F.pdf

VERISTAKAP Q1
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36058_VERITAS_KAPITAL_ASSURANCE_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_S.pdf

MCNICHOLS
Lots of Directors and relatives of Directors dealings ....
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/106_MCNICHOLS_SHARE_SALE_NOTIFICATION_IJEOMA_19052022.pdf

Wapgod:
What's the meaning of cross deals?

emmasoft:
So cross deals are not market manipulation it's just a type of buy/sell between known parties.

Could also be a trade between two customers' account of same broking house....
Or transactions between customers in different broking houses, with an agreement to buy/sell Same security at certain amount.

Hope I get it right.
Thanks @Emmasoft

onegentleguy:
@ mcy56 trust you still remember the post above!

Some folks probably forget that LINKAGE ASSURANCE owns a core stake (circa 11.76%) in Stanbic Ibtc Pensions. ...Nigeria's biggest PFA/PFC, accounting for near 40% of the country's total pension fund with FUM/AUM in excess of N11 Trillion.

Present mkt price is rediculously cheap... because even if you value LINKAGE using just 5% of the coys portfolio in Stanbic Pensions, it's FV would compute to N2.16.

Still very fresh in memory boss.

OrgasmDonorxoxo:
Hello � house
Please I want your advise, does the dividend and bonus proposed by MCNICHOLS make it a buy for the short term?

If you're a risk taker, you can buy.......
It's highly illiquid and may continue the upward movement for this reason, coupled with the bonus of 6:5 declared and 0.03k Dividend.
Also, the stock belongs to the Consumer Goods family and may witness more upside in coming days......all things being equal. I think it's fundamentally not bad too.

You'll just have to plan to hold it for long should you wait to collect Bonus and Dividend, then have a strategy in place to average it down after markdown.........before bonuses are added.
Qualification Date is 30/06/2022.

Can remember saying something about MCNICHOLS here when it was around 77k. Has delivered over +160% gain since then.
Most of the transactions done were Directors dealings.

**Caveat: This is purely my opinion, I may be wrong as I no be expert, .....Apply DD pls**

Dum20:
., i see,
They are cross deals. The price is already agreed on and will not change no matter what is going on in the market.

Exactly!!

See the case of JAIZ BANK now, the bulk of the volumes exchanging hands are/were cross deals at premium price of 0.90k..........
Whereas, JAIZ is doing 0.83k and below in the market.......

Slimdove:
suggesting CAVERTON below 1

Oh!! Ok.
Didn't see that.......
Also think it wouldn't be bad from N1.10 and below....

JAIZ BANK!!!
Huge volumes ongoing here @0.90k........
Touched 0.76k earlier...

Dum20:
know. It is being bought at N23.80.
But it is curios is that I saw offers at N23.75 and people were still buying at N23.80.

It's cross deals.......
Some transactions are picked at premium......
Some picked a bit high to accommodate the volumes required....

CAVERTON: 1.10!!
Looking more attractive from here.......if it can get to N1 and below will be good too.....

MEYER:
Sighted @3.30......
This market no just balance, see as it's pursuing M&B......and conveniently overtake Neimeth......

FIDELITY: Sighted @3.45
What could be wrong here??

AIRTEL
Officially overtake Nestle in terms of pricing on the exchange.....
AIRTEL: N1,470
NESTLE: N1,401

SEPLAT
1. AGM Outcome.........
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36051_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC%20CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_THE_RESULT.pdf

2. Update on MOBIL Producing Acquisition.....
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36052_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC%20CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_AN_UPDATE_.pdf

YourhealthNG2:
It seems Morgan Capital does not work well on phone? Na wa o

Could be due to heavy workload around this time.
Then you know, in the process of generating CHN for you, they'll contact CSCS and all those stuff.

Copy info@morgancapitalgroup.com in all your correspondences.

OBAGADAFFI:
......all things being equal.

Na so.
As Nigeria Coys concern, they can wake up tomorrow and do the unexpected again.

ojesymsym:
In pidgin inglis, should we sell our holdings?

Make you no sell oo.
There may be pumping here in coming days.....
Dem go communicate details of how dey wan do the process later, this one go give clear direction.
Na just my opinion.........I fit be right or wrong....

I think it's not a high risk stock considering the share price, which you might have picked @20k least/minimum price self.
Final decision is yours afterall.

OBAGADAFFI:
I just hope Uncle Tony will leave UCAP as an independent company and not try to create UBA-Holdings with UCAP as a Subsidiary.

You can't predict these Guys.

There was unbundling before from what I read......
UBA unbundled UCAP, APR and maybe some few other subsidiaries.......
So there can't be any "Holding" again.......all things being equal.

UBA
These guys @7.90 though!!
They just lined up bids at that junction to be packing @7.95......
Make dem allow the price fall if that's what they wanted nah..

UCAP
Recognition by Financial Times London as one of AFRICA's fastest growing company
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36044_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC%20RECOGNITION_BY_FINANCIAL_TIMES_LOND.pdf

FBNH
Acquisition of ACCESS Pension Fund Custodian
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36042_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC%20NOTIFICATION_OF_ACQUISITION_OF_ACCESS.pdf