₦airaland Forum

MSCI (NIGERIA) MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 21 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The funds are still indifferent to this market. Therefore expecting good upward price movement will difficult for the general market. As usual for the prevailing situation, good moves will be seen in a couple of stock that usually have thin volumes.

For the people that are always in the market, or totally depends on the market for income, this is another lean period. I want to keep my stop losses very tight for now especially once the euphoria of the 2nd quarter results are over, will be time to just show some indifference to the market too as good volume may be difficult to find by then.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 20 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Market still dull, but the NAV position for the fund is still stable. Thus, the risk in the market seem not be too high. The fund seems to be indifferent to the market no new money coming to the portfolio.

Continue to look for opportunities to buy equities at the lowest price possible, using our proprietary techniques. I missed getting into Ikeja Hotel at my target price of about 2.75 as it moved too fast. No problem, there are still a lot of opportunities in the market. [b]Bought OANDO at NGN6.50.
[/b]
Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 19 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund maintained a clean record yesterday.

Looking at the cash position of the fund. It seems the investors of the fund are not interested in investing more money.
Thus, our optimism need to be curtailed, even in the face of very attractive buying position for some equities. The still lack good volume.

Ikeja Hotels formed a good chart pattern. But the issue is that the 1st price target will be at NGN3.50.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 13 JUNE 2018

Yesterday was a selling day. Another indication that one should wait for the opportunity to buy low. This is the reason why I use this index, I was very optimistic that the bulls will return, but with the selling by the fund resuming, this is a note of caution for me to reduce my optimism.

With the weekly NAV being positive and the monthly NAV negative figure below 10%, the risk in the market is still worth taking (note that the NAV calculation is delayed for about 1 day).

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.
N:B

Due to the fact so many new people are coming to this forum and may not know this use of following the “big monies that move markets”, I will be indicating why/how to use the information. This will be a permanent future of my post to reduce some comments which may prevent the people that understand the system from confusion by people who have not followed how this started. My comment for today for anybody who is doubting the efficacy of following the fund is to look at my recent recommendations for the past 2 months.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 12 JUNE 2018

The fund maintained a clean state yesterday.

However, I observed an interesting thing in the market, some equities are showing good volume/upward movement in prices which is an indicator that some Institutional investors are sneaking into the market. Example of a stock that is about to get to a new height is Ikeja Hotels (close above 2.75 will be a good buy), the volume is good and in terms of fundamentals there are some positives for this stock, I will continue on this in my next post.

Fund movement http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE, compare with figure for yok’s post https://www.nairaland.com/yok/posts. This shows we are still on track.

With the weekly NAV being positive and the monthly NAV negative figure below 10%, the risk in the market is still worth taking.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

N:B

Due to the fact so many new people are coming to this forum and may not know this use of following the “big monies that move markets”, I will be indicating why/how to use the information. This will be a permanent future of my post to reduce some comments which may prevent the people that understand the system from confusion by people who have not followed how this started. My comment for today for anybody who is doubting the efficacy of following the fund is to look at my recent recommendations for the past 2 months.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 11 JUNE 2018

This is an interesting time in the market. Still few buyers in the market which have kept most prices low.

Again, this is the season of buying at the support or better still demand point.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR 7 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund bought some. Although quantity not much. There is likelihood of additional funds coming to the portfolio soon.

Market is currently at a fear Zone, where some investors may likely exit the market in order to break-even.
Therefore, we should expect some consolidation/retracement in the market. Still another opportunity to snap up that your favorite stock if you see the panic selling (this will definitely happen). This is not a time to buy any breakout, look to but at the low price as much as possible.

Looking at the weekly NAV change, the market is still positive.

I am still voting for OANDO a price between NGN6.60 and 6.70 precisely.


Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 6 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund active on both sides of the market.

The fund is adding Access and Diamond bank very aggressively. For the sale side Nestle and Ecobank are at the firing end.
For now the fund is not bringing in any new fund.

Looking at the weekly NAV change, the market is in a positive mode for now, in that bear pressure is reduced.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.
Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR 6 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund active on both sides of the market.

The fund is adding Access and Diamond bank very aggressively. For the sale side Nestle and Ecobank are at the firing end.
For now the fund is yet to bring in any new fund.

Looking at the weekly NAV change, the market is in a positive mode for now, in that bear pressure is reduced.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MARKET TODAY EXTREMELY BULLISH- LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (BUT DON'T FORGET TO SELL YOUR LAGGARDS)

Today's performance was the best for a portfolio like mine. I foresee some people now going to get cash for the market. So the heard will come (no need to start worrying yet).

For us who are serious about the market, time to sell those stock that will probably give us headache in the future. For me top on my kicking out list is Dangote flour if per chance it gets to NGN12.50 or any time it start showing some symptom that bears will catch up with it, I am out of it for good till about April 2019 when I will check the stock again.

Caution: Not investment advice for educational purpose and my personal opinion only.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 6 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The market is coming alive little by little. The fund have started buying. This is a good relieve for the market.
In the light of the recent bear market, there is need to be more nimble in the market. We observed that the market can fall faster than when it is rising.

Now I will stick to watching when the MSCI Net Asset Value (NAV) loses up to 5% on weekly basis, I will slow down and when the losses is 10% on monthly basis, I will exit the market as fast as possible.

Looking at what the fund is buying now, I am not a fan of most of them especially when I am practicing some “rogue trader” tactics to quickly collect some dividends that others have worked or did they suffer for it!!! Sorry I will not tell the name of any now we have named them in the past, the prices have fallen such that further price fall after my dividend collection is very minimal.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.
Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

I don't trust this people. Story will start after you have deposited money.

I tried one and I was told that I will have to cough our any money once they demand the 1st contribution is not always enough.

Funniest thing is that that tell you that your 1st deposit is lost once you can't bring additional funds. I started with 70K, but I know somebody who has contributed 200k and came out with nothing. Theses agric co-operatives are reversed 419. I am talking from practical point of view. I was about to report to Ministry of Co-operative, I believe I will follow up one of these days. People cannot continue to be defrauded in the mname of Agric Co-operative

Do something that you will be in charge.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR 4 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

This kind of volume I am seeing is not normal for the Nigeria stock exchange. The fund seems not to be interested in this market. The cash inflow for the funds equally seems very low. Yesterday, the selling continue although not heavy.

If the volume fails to improve, I will not be surprised if the date for the IPO for MTN Nigeria is shifted forward.
With no buyers in the market, the subscription level for such IPO may be too low. Let us wait and see me.

For me there is no need to rush this market, just looking at the market, but I may buy OANDO (it is strictly for the 2nd quarter result play). Comparing the current Crude oil prices now with that between Jan and March ( I expected a better result for June 2016 quarter end all things being equal), the oil majors suppose not to suffer, but alas this the strong bear dragging all the sectors down!!!. If I see the fund buying OANDO, I will not hesitate to buy.


Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 1 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund bough some and sold a lot.

For the earlier part of the week, selling may still continue as the total volume as at Friday was still thin.

I have added some other information to make better decision with the activity of the fund. Anytime the weekly NAV is negative up to 5%, I will start reducing my activities in the market.


Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.
Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 31 MAY 2018

For the 1st time in about 3 weeks. The fund bought some while selling continues on others.

The buyers are about coming back but will be with caution. One can see improvement in volumes traded. Can we see the contribution of the big money in the market!!!

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI Movement-

Correct key- Buying[b] Green[/b]

Selling[b] Red[/b]

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 28 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT


The news of the bear is now widespread. This is likely to make people to fear buying equities in the short time. I will give the rest of the week to the bears.

And as expected, the fund behaved the normal way on Monday. Let us see who will bail out this market!!!
Due to this undue pessimism in the market, it is possible that some good stock falls to a very low price, if you believe in such stock, this will be a good time to snap it up. I believe this should be possible for those who have sold some stock and have some cash!!!

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 25 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

On the last day of the trading week-25 May 2018, it was another selling day.

There is no doubt the market is now in down trend. Time to stay away from the market for a while. For those equities we are still holding, the stop loss now has to be under close watch.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 24 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The lack of volume in the recent market have shown the strength of the “big money”. If for a fund like MSCI failing to add more to its portfolio, the market has fallen to this level, I wonder what will happen if the fund decide to continue with the Nigeria fund?

It is good that we are not expecting a crash in the market, what is still happening is a correction. Therefore, this give us the opportunity to prepare for worst scenarios in the future.

Today still likely to be a down day, there is lack of volume in the market (money flowing into market is still declining). The buyers are still on the drawing board as regard how to handle this market!!!

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

IchimokuPilot:
Hope MSCI is not remotely indicted.....

Ah-ha thanks. the heading will now be changed to movement. This is what must have been confusing people. The heading will now be MSCI movements so that we can all see the same information. Fund has been selling for like 2 weeks, but I was always surprised when people now talk about buy today sell tomorrow.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 23 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund’s portfolio decrease, selling continued. The market is still down, even if the price starts going up, more buyers still need to come to the market.

This week has been bad for my portfolio. Next week must not be like this. I am seriously considering a strategy that will ensure that I exit the market before a bear like this comes to the market again.

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 22 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund portfolio is in tune with the current trend of the market; bearish.

Taking time to look at the position of my recent purchases, I need nobody to tell me that continuing buying stock for now is like “doing things the same way and expecting a different result”, buy during the bear trend and loose some money.

I remain in my “safe mode” like a computer system: staying sideways to watch the market, the bearish heat is Becoming too much.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 21 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Shedding of shares continue. Compared with Friday, value of stock sold was less, but the latest selling tempo increased in percentage quantity terms increased for the likes of Fidelity, Flour Mills, Diamond Bank and Lafarge.

The general volume of shares traded in the market was very low, still indicating that there are few buyers in the market.
Looking at the above, for today I want to be off duty from the market. I know nothing new will happen the all share index will likely close lower than the opening.

The idea just struck me that this MSCI index can tell me when to stop further investing in the market. Why, since the market is only good when stocks are moving up, if the stock market is falling and volume is decreasing automatically the market place (let us think about a local market) is about to close for the period. Thus at the moment, the attraction for me as an investor in the market is waning. Will any of us still be happy to be shopping when most of the trader's have closed their shops for the day? Can you as a seller or buyer get good stuff!!! Let us ponder over this for those of us who want to be in the market at all time.


Therefore, I am looking to switch back to buying mode, only when some volume returns to the market. For the Equity still in my portfolio if I see a sudden upsurge with small profit, I will take it and wait at the sideline.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 18 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

MSCI index sold again heavily on Friday 18 May 2018. Heavily affected by the sales were: Access, FBN Holdings, FCMB, GTB, Nestle, OANDO, UBA and ZENITH.

And following the adage, to be forewarned is to before arm. We should know on which of the market to cast our vote for, bears are still likely to be in control for the 1st 2 trading days of the week.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 17 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

MSCI index maintained a clean slate yesterday. The waiting is not a big surprise. With the low level of market participants and the MPC meeting that is due next week, the fund must be seriously considering the next move.

In terms of the volume traded yesterday, some equity has good volume. If such volumes are maintained, the likelihood of the market being better is higher. For now, I am still enjoying this siesta time in the market.

If one can know when to get out of the market when the market is going down, it will really improve the level of return from the market. Since, I have now learnt patience, the next move is to be ruthless in getting out of the market to avoid overstaying in the market.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 16 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

MSCI index is considering the next move. No activity yesterday 16 May 2018. By Wednesday next week we will know the next move of the market.

Point of correction for 15 May 2018 MSCI index, actually the fund sold some quantities of Nestle and Transcorp. This is reflected below today’s movement chart below.

This is a time one can buy a good stock at a bargain price. Since I know that the market is dull and only few buyers, I want to bid for small quantity of Transcorp at a limit price of NGN1.58 today. My stop loss for this order will be NGN1.38 while my immediate target will be 1.98 or 1.80, this is another entry where I have followed the right process and I don’t care if the stock moves up or down.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI GLOBAL FUND

The fund hold so large a quantity that it cannot sell all at one time.

Equally the fund is established to invest only in equities. Thus they cannot sell everything. If they make no capital gain, they have the dividend as the benefit for the investors.

why they are good gauge for the market is that "they buy more when the market is going up, and sell more when the market is going down".

Thus following them means selling more when market is going down or you stop investing: buy more when the market is going up, just like the fund so that you can participate in the gains.

Equally when they are selling it means there is the probability of little capital gain, thus you reduce your expected profit in such period. Equally the activity of the fund is backed by heavy fundamental analysis behind the scene.

Sorry if you need further explanation from my side let us continue to state our fears/opinion on the fund and will respond as time goes on.

For me, this is part of my analysis and will continue to follow them, I was out of Diamond about 2 or over one month ago at NGN2.50 purely based on the quantity of the fund being sold by MSCI (I just state that I am no more in Oando equally on what the fund was doing), you may need to send me a mail maybe I send you some of the data that we used that has made our investing life so good based on having MSCI as part of our idea bank.

Thanks. I love the interactions.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 15 MAY 2018

The fund did not sell yesterday. Fund made some few purchases in the blue chips stock (no banking stock included)- Transcorp and Nigeria Breweries in the purchase list

Generally the volume traded in the market is still thin. There is not likely to be substantial movement in the market.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 14 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

I love the consistency of the fund. I followed the fund and exit Oando, which has not been responding to the positive news surrounding the oil industry.

The recognition of MSCI as a force to reckon with in any market they are involved in is the beginning of wisdom. Many times, we have been told that in the real world David will not beat Goliath (only that it is possible in our religious beliefs).

Trading in the shadow of big money pays and I am enjoying it. My selling mode is still on, while I look to buy those equities at support. We are not saying follow the fund blindly, but use the portfolio to generate ideas and gauge the general market trend. You can use MSCI effectively without some background analysis of the data (we have the analysis!!! And we use it to our advantage!!!). I will open an account that is like a demo account soon and will show some our trades using MSCI fund following system plus normal technical analysis, please look forward to this soon.

Again to check our figures Morning star as at this morning website for MSCI holding 10 May 2018, if website has been updated as at the time of your reading post, check the corresponding ate on yok’s , if see any error let me know (http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE), yok Nairaland posting (https://www.nairaland.com/yok/posts)

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. You can e-mail me for any clarification on the above or any issue I have written in the past.

MSCI ADDITION FOR WEEK ENDED 11 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The week ended with the All share index reducing by 0.48% compared with the previous week. Action spot during the week was the insurance sector.

MSCI disposed about 1.89% of their portfolio volume wise from 4th May 2018.

As per the mode of the market, this is not a good time to buy highs or expect high profits; the volume seems to be with the market makers.

Now is the time to add some fundamentals to our stock picks techniques. To remove confusion from fundamental analysis or use something like the LCM (similar to the LCM we all learnt at primary school), if you apply this, the probability of staying in accompany that will go dead is very remote. If these fundamentals are bad for a 2 stock in 2 quarters consistently; it is time to sell and wait till the health of that company improves (you have become a financial lab scientist and have discovered that the company is sick, no need for any story or waiting for any advice from any other source, you are equally an adviser and the best you can do is to advise yourself first):
i. Declining gross profit ratio
ii. Declining Net profit ratio
iii. Declining EPS
iv. Negative reserve earnings
iv. Negative working capital ratio (Current liabilities higher than current assets)

Parting message for this week, if you cannot monitor the market frequently- Seplat will be good, you are to sell after the release of the 3rd quarter result for 2018.

NAHCO is still good. This used to be a defensive stock that is now ready for attacking role.

Below were the major disposals for last week as a whole by the fund (volume only):

Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF
Fund Holdings Data as of 05/11/2018
Name Latest Shares Held Market Value ($) % Sold off For the week Qty Sold Off
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INC 59,945,089.00 3,495,413.08 -4.14% (2,547,142.00)
UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC 19,899,476.00 2,750,647.79 -2.84% (577,519.00)
GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC 9,595,814.00 2,764,445.03 -2.52% (246,000.00)
DIAMOND BANK PLC 223,625,203.00 1,176,974.75 -2.50% (5,677,072.00)
OANDO PLC 80,707,053.00 1,822,056.74 -2.18% (1,787,179.00)


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. You can e-mail me for any clarification on the above or any issue I have written in the past.

MSCI MOVEMENT 10 MAY 2018/MARKET COMMENT

MSCI continue the normal trend of selling. Has been a week of consistent selling.

The good thing about an ETF like MSCI is that they are established mainly to trade stock on the buy side. Thus at any point in time the fund will invest in the market. If the market is good the fund will invest more and if the market is not rising, they stay on the sideline. Thus, very good for gauging the health of the equity market.

I am enjoying this dull period (no presure, although no gain my portfolio is flat), time to further improve on our trading strategies.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 9 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Yesterday’s disposal by MSCI has put paid to my intention of buying ant stock for this week. As a participant in the market, I cannot argue with the market. Therefore, temporarily I switch back to selling mode again.

If it was prior to my following the fund, by now I will be thinking some stock are cheap due to the fact that they are trading at a lower price, now I know better. For today, may be for the next 3 working days, I see Unilever Nigeria going under heavy firing.

Market always tell us what it will do. For example this year 2018 financial year end is not for Dangote Flour Mills, except something exceptional happens, at a point in time those of us holding this equity just have to sell, best selling time should be prior to the release of the 2nd Quarter result.

This is not time for panicking just wait for your favourite stock to hit a good support level and buy. This time around fundamentals matter.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.