₦airaland Forum

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR FRIDAY 2 FEBRUARY 2018

For the first time, the Fund took away some of the cash in its portfolio. Probably in search of opportunities elsewhere.

This is not surprising considering the decrease in the NAV for the week.

For the coming week, there is high possibility of the market dropping or consolidating at best as there is a supply point ahead as per the NSE chart below.

This NSE is obeying the rule of technical analysis. Now the following week (starting 12 February will be a good time to start doing some earnings play).

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

MSCI NIGERIA FUND MOVEMENT FOR 31 JANUARY 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

The fund added good quantity of Seplat yesterday. The daily NAV position compared with 30 January 2018 was negative.

The effect of the above is that we have to tighten our belts and be more vigilant. Also, we can look for good equities that are retracing in prices.

In terms of strategies to beat the upside trap of the market, one of them will be to look for set paces like corner kick or trowing- this mean good results. It a company declares good result, the probability of the price going higher increases, especially if there is a bonus. For this strategy having a system to play the earning game will be a good one. Do you know any style for investing with earnings release?? If you know you may beat the upside trap of the market.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 30 JAN 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

The fund's portfolio shows no movement for yesterday. However, the increase in Net asset value is still okay.

Again I will say no cause for alarm. Also in terms of the bear resuming in the market, we should let our mind be at rest, we are close to the earnings season and with so many positive results expected, bears will not have immediate impact in the market (but remember where your stop loss is or should be!!!).

For our offside (immediate resistant point) rule, the chart below for Fidelity shows one at NGN4.32. Tomorrow, I will give some instances where the offside trap may not be effective in some instances.

If you need further information on my analysis or will like me to comment on any equity,you can e-mail me via this forum.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR 29 JANUARY 2018

Analysing this MSCI Nigeria fund position is so much interesting and so revealing. It is a combination of both Fundamentals and Technical analysis.

The funded added no position yesterday as the recent fall in prices must have made the Fund to step back and look at the market again.

However, there is no cause for alarm. The Fund is still making profit as shown in the schedule below.

On a passing note. It seems the market has been using offside tactics , to beat our expectation. Offside in the sense that many stock are about to breakout of support for the support level to become resistance, unfortunately once there is a breakout, the invisible linesman will raise the flag and the ball returns to the central line again. But no problem we are ready, this time we are ready to see how we can beat this offside tactis. This was noted in the Flour Mills sector, Dangote sugar etc. I will be going back to my referee study note to see how offside tactics can be beaten. On red card, I belief I am good, you can see that once I issue the red card, the stock always behave themselves (see my recent posting on the NSE all share index and May and Baker. I feel I should be awarded the FIFA Refree badge for NSEMPA (At least I have passed the Red/Yellow card Course with distinction)

MSCI NIGERIA FUND MOVEMENT FOR THE WEEK ENDED 26 JANUARY 2018

Below is the movement in the MSCI Nigeria Fund for the week ended 26 January 2018.

The top 3 additions in terms of quantity were Diamond, Fidelity and Transcorp.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR THE PERIOD 25 JANUARY 2018

Very little movement in fund’s position for yesterday.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFOLIO FOR THE PERIOD 24 JANUARY 2018/NSE YELLOW CARD

MSCI bought stocks randomly yesterday as per the movement in their portfolio yesterday.
There is a probability that the NSE All share index will stop the decline in the next 2 days as it is close to a good support level at 42,279.09 (this is my yellow card level).

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI ADDITIONS/MOVEMENTS FOR 23 JANUARY 2018- YELLOW CARD FOR TRANSCORP

Bellow is the MSCI-Nigeria movement for 23 January 2018. The MPC meeting not holding definitely has a hand in this temporary downtrend in the market.

To protect our profits, depending on our risk appetite, it is time to put our necessary action in place to prevent us from making losses/or taking excessive risk.

For me, I am issuing a yellow card to Transcorp at NGN1.86. Once the price close about 1.85 I will exit without blinking an eye.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. It is not an investment advice.

MSCI ADDITIONS/MOVEMENT FOR 22 JANUARY 2018

The above is as attached. The fund continue in buying the banking stock randomly plus others as it has done in the last one week.

Caution: This information is not an investment advice.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 19TH JANUARY 2018

The fund have started firing, still campaigning more in the banking sector, Diamond seems to be new bride with the usual dose of Transcorp, Fidelity FBNH and others as per the schedule below.

If you need further clarification on my posting, just e-mail via the forum.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI ADDITIONS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 18 JANUARY 2018 (PART 1)

Below is the funds movement for the last one week on a Friday to Thursday basis. The data is very interesting as it clearly show what the dig money has done for the week.

We can see that the laggards in terms of index weight have suffered stagnation in their prices.

Thus, for our investment decision we can know where to focus. These 1st 4 equities especially when they are retracing look for good position to enter. The prices falling should be putting a smile on our faces as we should know that the good time to jump in will be at a good demand level. These, four equities looking at the expected results have good fundamental backing.

Below is our market map for FBNH for the coming week, as a review of buying one of the top equities based on catching a retracement.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

If you are interested in further information or more in-dept analysis, you can send a request by sending me a mail via this forum.
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MSCI ADDITIONS/REDUCTIONS FOR 18 JANUARY 2018 WITH COMMENT YOU CAN USED TO PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT

The above is attached for our guide. This is a subscription based information provided free as our contribution to the investing public.

If you are further information/explanation , you can send a request to me by via this forum.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

M[b]SCI ADDITION FOR 17 JANUARY 2018[/b]

Below is the movement in the MSCI Nigeria Portfolio yesterday. It was observed that the top two additions in terms of portfolio weigh are FBNH and Diamond Bank.

It should be noted that the movements can be relied upon. The Fund is highly regulated and disclosing this type of information is required by the regulatory authority of the Country where the fund is domiciled.

I have found this information extremely useful, it has some fundamental reasons behind it, while I used it in a technical nature by the application of the statistical process of comparing the data between various dates and looking at the change in weight of the portfolio. I can confidently say that I don't bother my head so much about some dead news available all over the place. this like news behind the news.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

WHAT STOCK CAN I BUY IF I AM SO MUCH AFRAID OF THE MARKET- STOCK PHOBIA

Some people are still so much afraid of the market and considering the recent rise in prices, do not wish to come to the market at all.

How I wish for those people I can guaranty that I will bear their loss, but they will take the profit. Alas, this is not possible even if you have paid me for the recommendation. What I have done is to pick the brain of another set of experts that are very good at fundamental analysis, I have always ignore their recommendation as sometimes it is too late to pick stock for somebody like me who want to see immediate gain. However, when they are right, the gain is always substantial.

For this I will recommend Flour Mills Plc and some other companies in this sector. The only factor that can undo this sector is a rise in exchange rate, but the exchange rate is stable for now.

To further support this attached is the price chart for wheat, it has been going down down.

If after this someone is still afraid to invest in a company/sector like this!!! I have nothing to say again. Note that there are still companies in sectors like this and I will be releasing them from time to time.

This is expo of the highest order.

For our MSCI followings, there seems to be some issue with the site only the Friday position is still displayed (I hope my browsing adblocker is not the problem).

If you need further clarification on my posting, just e-mail via the forum.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 10TH JANUARY 2018

Little addition by the fund. Continue to add more Seplat. However, the heavy cash is still yet to be deployed.

The fund is still likely to be planning the next course of action.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

MSCI ADDITIONS FOR 9 JANUARY 2018

MSCI started their activity for the year by going for a selection of some banking stocks that were already in their portfolio


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

LET US ALSO ADD THESE LIST TO OUR IDEA BANK FOR 2018

For the 1st time I have been buying shares, this is the first time I feel so confident that as soon as the market tanks, I will not bee found napping, I will liquidate up to zero level and go into cash. Why this? There is so much money to be made such that as soon as the people we have been telling to come to the market start buying at higher prices and the shoemaker and pepper seller start talking about stock, I am done.

Let us enjoy why the party last.

I will be posting what the MSCI did on 9 January 2019.

This are the news ideas, sorry for duplicating if it has already been posted please. https://nairametrics.com/three-stocks-to-buy-and-sell-in-january/

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 8TH JANUARY 2018

Below is the MSCI addition for the 1st working day (for the generality of people) of the new year.

There seems to be no significant change. As per recent trend the fund is now crazy about Seplat.

The fun will start when the funds start buying something new, may still continue to buy the banks, Cement Sector of a food and beverage company. The gun Powder is fully loaded.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

GAME PLAN FOR WEEK ENDING 12 JANUARY 2018

The year began on a very good note. Market has been good, with no major pullback yet. Most of the equities look good, many of the companies have already achieved or surpass their previous full year result as at the third of the current year.

For the all share index, the next supply pint is between 40,630.58 and 42,445.71. Thus there is still room for good advancement.

For the rest of the report........https://www.slideshare.net/kelanio2002/game-plan-for-the-week-ending-12-january-2011

My next post will show some fundamentals on NASCON. The picture looks so good to be ignored. Despite the fact that I look more at technicals, the fundamental still determines whatever I will pick.

Latter today, we will see what MSCI Nigeria fund did in the 1st day that majority of offices returned to the market.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI- NIGERIA FUND ADDITIONS BETWEEN 2ND AND 4TH JANUARY 2018

The fun has not been very active since 22nd December 2018. Likely to resume from next week. Also since the fund paid dividend last January, this January 5, 2018 they are also likely to pay dividend again, so they have been selling some little amounts just to have cash for dividend.

The fun is still buying Seplat in small quantities. So no big move seen yet. So the information is sometimes embedded in my other posts. But if I see anything substantial, I will escalate it. We are waiting for the equities that will be used to replace Unilever and UACN which are no more in the list.

The movement in the fund between 2nd and 4th January 2018 is shown below. However, what I can say is that the fund is having enormous cash available (about NGN904,199,292.00).

The decision by the fund around July 2017, when they postponed investing further in Nigeria market, brought back the little bear season we experienced, now that the fund and its allies are now pro-Nigeria, we can imagine the bull move that will come to the market . Let us have this in mind. this is the reason why every news is so optimistic in the market. Our own job is to position ourselves to make money from the big moves by the funds and insha Allah good things will happen to investors who can put their money in good stocks.

Going further, the closing figures in the market today showed some blue chips among the gainers, extrapolating this, next week is likely to be bullish.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation. All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

MY CHOICE AS TO WHETHER TO SELL TRANSCORP AND BUY FIDELITY OR FCMB

Looking at the charts, Transcorp seem just about to start trending. FCMB is currently trading at a supply point (the supply seems not very strong), with another one ahead at about 2.52.

For Fidelity there is a stronger supply point ahead at about NGN3.00.

Therefore, if I am worried about Transcorp, I may sell some transcorp, I will put in a limit order at about 2.10 (then adjust depending on how market plays out) in order to have some cash to play other equities.

As per the closing of today, there is really no need to panic, but Fidelity is likely to pull back soon.

The charts are shown below.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

2018 STARTED ON GOOD NOTE: NOW I WILL BE STRICTER WITH MY STOP LOSS
 
Since the opening of the New Year, the market has been very good, but I am sure the race is just starting.
 
The first yellow card I will issue is for May and Baker. The stock is not moving as expected. If the stock goes below 2.40 (my stop loss level), I will bail out without looking back and then wait for a retracement on FCMB or Fidelity.
 
As regard the monitoring of the MSCI Nigeria fund, the fund still has much cash for the market, the purchase additional equity for 2018 is yet to start, safe for the little additions to the Seplat holding.
 
For now May and Bakers need to be under watch, a close above NGN2.79 may bring the stock back into reckoning.
 
Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

SOME STOCK IDEAS FOR 2018- VERTVA HIGH CONVICTION PICKS

That 2018 will be a good year for the stock market is no more news. How do we position ourselves for it. The list below is a good one. Then I will add:

• Fidelity- Good performance Expected
• Caverton- 2018 election campaign, plus rising oil price. The economy will play into the hand of this company. Good for quick gains (just target like May and Baker, take your quick 20 to 30% gain and get out before the big crowd).
• Dangote Flour- No stopping this company, with the world price of wheat flat for a long time and likely to remain, this ATM must dispense cash.

I will just continue to watch to know when my technical will tell me that free money is not only available, but available fast. I have waited too long in Transcorp this year (since July at a stagnant price of 1.43, very frustrating although I am not losing, but for me not good enough.

As usual you can read all the English on this link (https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/10879-Nigeria2018OutlookActaNonVerba-proshare.pdf) plus some other ideas, but the meat of the whole 169 pages is the list below. The 2017 performance makes the list too good to ignore.

On the MSCI addition, the fund seems to be on holiday after adding more Seplat (like the only Oil producing company now, until OANDO gets out of the SEC mess). UAC and Unilever no more in the daily list as at 27 December 2017, which stock will replace these?? This is why the list is worth following. The fund entered Fidelity, now others are now putting head, except there is a big disaster in Nigeria Fidelity Bank is likely to move higher.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

GAINERS AND LOSERS FOR THE WEEK/MSCI ADDITION FOR 21 DECEMBER 2017

MSCI made little additions during the week. Attached was the addition for 21 December 2017 (latest available as at time of making this posting), Gains for the week seem fair and the losses too reasonable.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

MSCI IS RESTING ADDED NOTHING ON 19TH. POSITION AS AT 20 DECEMBER 2017 IS ATTACHED

The Fund is sort of finished with the main activity for 2017. However, more cash is available for necessary firing power in 2018.



Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

2017 NSE INDEX REVIEW AS A GUIDE TO POSITIONING OURSELVES FOR 2018

The 15 December 2017 stock exchange weekly report on the last page indicated that some stocks will be outgoing and some incoming for the various indexes. I believe that as participants in the market, this information can be useful as one these stocks will likely make some good move in the year 2018. However, which stock can this be?? Difficult question. All we have to do is follow up on these companies and if we see a specular result from them, we follow up appropriately and buy according to our capacity and if the stock fails to move as expected (kick it out of our portfolio and move on).

I have realized that my inability to do away with a stock that has reached my initial stop loss position has made me to tie down capital in unprofitable buys and then miss the good opportunities. Next year, this will change especially this attitude of considering the fact that the gains I am making from the good stocks will compensate me for the bad one, this seems to be a bad idea as it leads to holding the bad stocks for too long and then making a loss that are sometimes unrecoverable (when will UBA hit NGN50 again

Therefore from the list below, I want to follow the following companies and look for the appropriate buying opportunity (the list will definitely change if a company delivers a spectacular performance- sorry I will not touch the illiquid stocks). Illiquidity adds an additional risk therefore if I go into such stock, I will seek to get out when the ovation is still loud, I all learnt my lesson in the bear period around August this year, when my gain turned to instant loss as I tried to escape with the other people at the narrow door of illiquidity.

List: Dangote Flour, NASCON, Forte Oil, Honeywell, International Breweries (may be champion can ,make NGN4.00 again??), WAPCO, Diamond, CCNN and Conoil.

This is just one source of idea, other ideas will come via the Quarterly results and other important information like the posting in this forum/news.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

MSCI INDEX IS WINDING UP ACTIVITES FOR18 DECEMBER 2017- NO MAJOR PURCHASE- ADDED MORE GUINNESS, SELL UNILEVER ETC/POSITIONING FOR 2018

Attached is the full list of the changes. With one major holding off the list additional space has been created for replacement.

Thank God we are aware of this list. We must improve in our investment profitability come 2018.

This then take me to what equities we need to be positioning ourselves for in 2018, maybe one of our selections may make this list or have substantial addition. It will be strictly for stocks that are in the major indexes as per the changes in the incoming and outgoing companies. Some of the incoming companies will now attract more visibility and some outgoing companies will try their best to fight and come back into the list. [b]Maybe to make a guess, Dangote Flour (you know this is our own “Tiger Brand”) may make the list, if it does not make the lIst at least, the fact that it is now part of the Pension index should impact the price positively. [/b]See my next postings for this.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund . If you are interested in the excel sheet from where the additions/subtractions are derived, you can send me an e-mail via this forum.

COMMENT ON NSE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 15 DECEMBER 2017

The week closed lower, but there is a good demand point at 36,562.00. The year is being rounded up, after next week Friday activities at the exchange may start declining in terms of total volume traded,

This is our time to start planning for next year. I believe we are already tightening our belt for safe landing of 2017 and positioning ourselves for 2018. We need to keep some cash around to take opportunity of some stock hitting the bottom. For example if Fidelity gets to NGN2.11 (this level has been on my chart since 7 November 2017).

For the MSCI fund, the fund seems to have finished their major investment campaign for this year, there is very little action from their end.

[img]Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/

MARKET ABOUT TO BREAK A TRENDLINE ON THE WEEKLY CHART.

For the week it has been difficult for the uptrend to continue. A close below 37,706.62 will mean a definite notice from the market for us to slow down.

The closest support level is at 36,440.20. The chart below gives further explanation.

On the trailing of the MSCI additions, there is no major change. The recent regular doses of Diamond, FBN, Dangote Sugar etc. Continued. Contrary to most of our expectation the Fund have sold most of the initial holding where there are rights, and taken up the rights only in some companies that we consider to be cheap. See the details of the movements in the fund holdings as at 13 December 2017. I believe you will see something of note in it.

For FBNH a close below 8.63 is a yellow card- saying don't join the party yet. But tomorrow closing figure will tell if there will be a bounce or the temporary decline will continue.

The charts below/comments are very important to get the embedded in this post. Especially the comment on the NSE All share index, picture speaks better.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

CURRENT PRICE/FBNH/BABA JEJE

I have just gone back to study the chart Current price used in that oil price up move. It look similar to this FBNH chart. Therefore if the expected up move to NGN11.00 occur (I am expecting this within the next one/two weeks) let us thank current price. If it fails, I accept the blame.

For the MSCI update- Babajeje has the template, it he is reading this tread, he will assist.

Hey Boss Currentprice,

Na we your fans ooo. Anywhere you go we must locate you because of your unusual talent.

Well done and keep up the good job.