₦airaland Forum

MSCI ADDITION FOR 8 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Selling by the fund continues. Looking at the spate of selling by the fund couple with the one week plus remaining just for the next MPC meeting, there is little likelihood of the fund resuming purchase of stocks. What this is telling us again is to lower our profit expectation for the short term.

Looking at the attractiveness of Nigeria as an investment destination, things are still working in our favour. Therefore, no catastrophic fall is expected in the market. There is no need to fear.
On a parting note, this may be a good time to start looking at Mutual Benefit assurance, there seems to be some potential "did I hear asurance as in Davido" here and I want to keep it in my watch list. Will be revisiting whatever I see later. I am thinking of changing my name to Goodluck [/b]as [b]this MSCI following this giving me some Patience [/b]and with [b]Patience may come some assurance, this is a story for another day please.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 7 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund continue the selling. This is a signal that we should not expect the market to become bullish immediately. Thus we may have to lower our profit expectation for now, just like my previous post,[b] I am exiting OAND for now once it hits 9.15 (my limit order is sitting right there in the market).
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For those still doubting if the data is correct you can compare the list for 3rd of May as per Nairaland (https://www.nairaland.com/yok/posts) with that from Morningstar (http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE) if there is difference let me know. Thus, I want to confirm that we have checks and balances in place to ensure that the data are correct as much as possible- up Nigeria, up Nairaland and up YOK.

The forum is good for information on Nigeria stock market, you can always rely on ASEMPA, just sift away the jokes/irrelevances. To further get the benefit of the ideas just add your technical analysis or fundamental analysis as appropriate.

I am happy following what the fund is doing and I know how to analyse the various data provide to interpret the general market condition.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 4 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

As of Friday 4 May 2018. Selling by the fund continues, from the equities on disposal, Lafarge was hit the hardest looking at percentage of holding disposed. Therefore, this is not a good time to buy Lafarge.

Again following the fund paid off for me, as I was prevented from following the crowd to buy at the highs. Was able to get into Mobil PLC (11 PLC), at a good price just like in my post on Friday morning, thanks to my broker and the on-line trading platform.

Moving forward, the current price of NAHCO will be a good entry. This level is supported by fundamentals, good support level and our earnings system (sorry, details of earnings system is only available to our subscribers). See screen short from my trading platform below.

As usual, I am investing with peace of mind knowing that I follow the footstep of the big money and the use of tried/tested entry systems. I am very happy with these entries due to my following a good process.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT 3 MAY 2018 GENERAL/MARKET COMMENT

Yesterday was selling day for the fund, the tempo was more pronounced in the banking stocks (tempo slightly low for Ecobank and Stanbic).
Looking at the above we are now back to “selling mode”. For this Friday 4 May 2018, if I am buying any stock, I want to bid at a low price. All things being equal, if the stock fail to go down to my price today by Monday the probability of getting that stock at a lower price will be higher.

For example, I want to bid for Mobil at a limit price of NGN185 nothing higher. If price is not hit, no problem, I look for another equity, we are in a promo season of low prices, especially when a fund like MSCI is pulling out money. Likewise, I want to get out of OANDO at NGN9.15 (my patience for price appreciation is running out, but I cannot sell at a price lower than this)


Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 2 MAY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Not much story to tell. MSCI is using style to avoid the market for now.

Personally still watching the market to know which good stock to buy. According to the mood of the market, I will not buy any equity that the price seems to be high of close to a resistance level, neither will I buy without a good support at sight. In this type of market, little sprit may be okay as the bullish side seems weak.

Again, the fund has cubed my buying exuberance, now it is becoming part of my style that I need not be in the market always, neither will I be able to catch all hot stocks. The part I need to control is to minimise my loss and get out within the 10 to 20% loss range in those stocks that have some good fundamentals in the medium/long term (for those with weak fundamentals, getting out will be no problem, getting out within one week or 3 days is normal for me).

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI/ General Comment - Week Ended 30 April 2018

Selling for the day reduced drastically, technically I will not consider this as selling looking at the quantity of each equity in the fund’s portfolio. I see the fund trying to gauge the proper mood of the market. There were flurry of reports, some showed insanely good profits that will temp one to look for more funds to invest (but let see what happens from tomorow).

For the first time I saw what appeared like a short term fixed income investment on the Fund’s portfolio, this is money waiting to come into the equity market again? With this money in the portfolio that can drop anytime, the fund is telling us that there is no permanent enemy in the market, you just go where the money is and forget/dump any stock not moving according to plan. Being nimble like the fund will not be easy, as for most equities the fund holds a huge volume and selling may just be a way of taking profits on some positions/freeing more may for better stocks.

Monday for the week was fairly bullish, but did you notice how some stocks went up early in the day, but letter drop from the earlier higher opening to close in some cases at a slightly lower prices? Now time to watch the market closely for some earnings play. Earnings play is a strategy which we want to benefit from positive sentiments in a company’s earnings release, it does not necessary mean buying the stock with highest percentage earning increase, but waiting for the right time to see when the market is reacting positively to earnings release. I will point out one when I see it. If it is just following high earnings then last year those of us who bought WAPCO about April last year should have made money (I bought at about NGN55 then, but alas I got out after some time with a small loss around NGN50, same story for me in CI Leasing for 2017). So, I will not jump into positive earning just like that, there is a proper strategy for doing this ans will point it out when I see one, before any body talk about Julius Berger, that was a similar situation that lured me into CI Leasing after the 2nd quarter result in 2017.

On the supply I see 41666.01- 41,832.42 on the NSE all share index being a supply point. If the index close above this level, the the bulls can relax a title.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI/ General Comment - Week Ended 27 April 2018

The fund continues to exit a number of stocks just like what happen on Thursday. Some equities that seems of be at the hottest selling zone were Dangote Sugar, FCMB, Diamond, Nestle and Transcorp.

Again this is a pointer that we have to look for value stock as the bull for the new week has already being knocked off the table and as usual with Mondays, I expect the 1st trading day to close lower on the all share index. For this reason, if I have any money to invest Monday is no buying day, the possible of getting the equity cheaper on Tuesday onward is better

For this week my momentum selection is Fidelity Bank,, Dangote Sugar and Wapic.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 26 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The portfolio showed a lot of selling by MSCI yesterday. With this level of selling by the fund, expected volume necessary to excite the bulls will be lacking from the market.

Equally as participants in the market, we have to continue to look to buy the lows, expecting good breakouts at this state of the market will be a tall order. Equally I have observed that there seems to be a lot of short term traders in the market, the retracement levels at which stock prices goes down seems to well define technically speaking.

Again looking at OANDO the NGN9.15/NGN9.16 level as a minor resistance seems to be working. Therefore should the price close lower than this level today, by next week it will be better for one to sell some portion at NGN9.15 and then watch again.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 25 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

For the moment the new bride for the fund is Ecobank. Market still waiting for momentum.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 20 TO 24 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT


MSCI has dropped Forte Oil from its portfolio. This joins the like of PZ, Seplat etc which were formerly in the portfolio, but have now been dropped. We do not need to panic about this, it has been in the fund’s agenda for a long time, FCMB was equally dropped before being added again. To refresh our memory look at this: [url]http://www.punchng.com/msci-review-forte-oil-fbnh-guinness-pz-others-dropped/
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Going back Forte oil was added into the fund around 2014- [url]https://www.proshareng.com/news/Investors%20NewsBeat/Forte-Oil-and-ETI-Plc-included-in-MSCI-Frontier-Market-Index/23222[/url]

Then for those who are afraid of OANDO going down, just put a limit order to sell at NGN9.14 immediately this morning I such that if the order is already sitting in the market before the open, you will be able to sell.

Was the fund the Jonah in the bull “boat” for Forte oil? We fold our arms to watch.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 23 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Sorry the update on the holding is delayed today (I may post latter today, but if not tomorrow is another day, we will not miss much) . The fund will likely slow down on purchases. As soon as the update is available, we continue where we stopped on movement after 20 April 2018.

Meanwhile, playing the earnings release system will be a good strategy this season. This involves looking at the earnings released waiting for a market reaction and then joining the move if the earning is right. However, position ourselves in those stocks with expected positive earnings will be a good strategy.

I am looking to make such move, but stocks where good earnings are expected seems to have got this expectation already factored into the price!!! Example is CCNN/Honywell, Vitafoam among others, getting the stock at a lower price than where it is currently will be good.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR THE WEEK ENDED 20 APRIL 2018

The fund invested more money, cleared large volume of Unilever and then top up with some units of Oando plus others.

Just our check to control previous post, let us see the comparism for the fund movement for 19 April 2018,[url] http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE[/url] and https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/3460#66869947

The implication of the above is that the likelihood of Oando reaching the first target of NGN11.16 very soon is higher, after this NGN14.38 [/b]Should be the next target (the people that got my excel on forecast price calculation can check the excel sheet, although the calculation for this projected price is based on the 0.618 and 1.618 fibonacci calculation). No need to worry much about this as I don’t give any crap calculation. Thus if you don’t want to be greedy, you can look to sell Oando at [b]NGN14.38, as some resistance is expected around this price. If you need to sell on short term or you are afraid, sell immediately the price goes below 9.15. Conclusion on this is that even if Oando goes down on Monday, do not sell yet till at least the NGN9.15 is breached!!!

The market should start waking up by now, since MSCI has led the way, I know other funds (both local and international are likely jump into the market again). One lesson I have learnt from the fund is that, the fund can take big risk, buy stock at those times that others are afraid of the market (bought Oando during the suspension period and is better for it). We see so many sell, sell analysis we rea on many fundamental reports about the consumer goods industry, but big fund in buying Unilever !!! One has to be a little daring to make money in the market, but must weigh the risk.

Last week was more favorable to the small caps, for more people to come to the market the big caps too need to start leading in the gainers chart. The number of gainers for the week just ended (37) was approximately equal to last week, but the losers 38 was big improvement on the 57 for last week.

For this week my momentum selection are: Julius Berger and FCMB. FCMB is good, for Julius Berger something seems to be cooking, but for reason of liquidity can be ignored for now, better to wait till 1st Quarter result will be out.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 19 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund continue with the additions. From the portfolio report more money is still available.

I have observed that the fund normally initiates big positions when the market seems to be at the bottom such that and individual that want to play smarter than the fund will just have to wait and experience some whipsaw.

Looking further at the recent line being towed by the fund, the consumer goods sector seems to have some surprise improvement in the pipeline. The fund is now looking at some consumer goods organizations favorably. To some extent I trust the fundamental capability of a large fund like this, extending this further I will conclude that it may be time to start looking at some consumer goods companies. For now the fear of Naira loosing value can be ignored at least for the short term horizon. In terms of consumer goods companies for the risk averse investor: Dangote Sugar, Flour Mills, Honeywell Flour and Unilever may be considered.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 18 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The MSCI index is endorsing this market by investing new round of money. With this positive movement in the fund holdings, we should see the developing up trend gaining more ground.

This development can be liken to the Army taking over a formerly occupied territory which belongs to rebels. Current takeover is led by among others by:

Brigadier- Oando (he has assured us of safety of the market)- To deliver at least 30% return this week. And with the bullish sentiment likely to continue next week with the recovery of some pipelines contracts !!!!
Sergeant Skye
Corporal: Jaiz

Further report on this operation will continue.

Please I am enjoying this forum, everybody is contributing their quota. For this week my heartily appreciation goes to out Locomotive – Locodemy, the man is open minded and cannot hide things from others. Due to this forum, I have not read news from other websites for quite some time now. I read some few useful comments/information and then sit down with charts to decipher what the market will do and bet me, I am happier for it. Hi my man, Locodemy, if they annoy you in this again in this forum, just let me know where you are going and we go there to try and bring the Brigadier Oando, Sergeant Skye, Corporal – Jaiz and the wounded but recuperating Honeywell (let us hope this get well soon as we await the result of the final test for 2017, recovery has been slow but the test result is likely to come at a good time to meet the current takeover of the enemy bear territory). On a last note, Br. Loco, hold on to Japaul, there is a “Capo” on the board that knows how to get all these foreign investors, after Milost another foreign investor will likely come. Also the 2 sectors that the company is focusing on: Mining and Oil are quite attractive, with so many loans and grants flowing to Nigeria this days, Japaul can still likely attract more funds (this write up is unlike me, I will forward a mail to you and whoever is interested, but know that I don’t reply all mails, since the information is free I can control what I disclose) for the full gist, this is insider information.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 17 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Consistent MSCI. As expected another fund cornered more FCMB yesterday (just followed the step of MSCI). This game is getting interesting.

Oando is currently on auto drive, see the volume of pending orders at about 6pm yesterday from my trading platform, moving train!!! Can crush any object on its way!!!

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 16 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Yesterday was not bad for the medium/low capitalized stocks. The market is trying to wake up, but volume is still low.

The MSCI movement was as usual in line with the on-going trend.

Following what MSCI is doing is still important as the fund is still a force to be recon with as regards when the market will make the big move either to the up or down side. Following what the fund is doing has made my investing to become very relaxed, I don't even bother about those websites that gives information about stock to invest in again and the performance of my portfolio has been far better than before. Following the big money is sweet

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 13 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The week that has just ended was not that bad, the all share index closed in the positive region compared with the previous week.
Looking at the MSCI, I can see that the fund now has some fresh funds. The new week will tell us where the available fund will be deployed. This is a positive development.

Looking at equities with some momentum, our system picked up Diamond ban[/b]k (I am not picking Oando, as best money is made when a stock is not yet recorgnised by the general public, price get quickly priced into stock or the expected gain will be delayed if the potential is seen by all, there is nothing special in anybody predicting that[b] Oando will be among the top gainers for this week!!!). Diamond bank is currently trading at one of the lowest prices in recent time. There is the possibility of a positive turn here.

I am not saying OANDO is not a good investment: for the moment, this stock will see positive move with a lot of crowd rushing to buy. If you want to go with the crowd, good opportunity for some quick gain. Then get out once you see the price getting to a resistance level.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 12 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

For this week I have learnt to suppress my temptation for buying stock. Since, the big money is slowing down, I have equally fold my hand to see when momentum will return to the market.

Just like the dealer at a Casino table, I have placed my bet and the result for the 1st quarter will show whether I will put in more money or continue to wait at the sideline. Thank God for diversification, many of us will have been out of the market by now.

From next week, I will be commenting on equities with momentum behind them for the day (but I will likely exclude the extremely illiquid stocks). If a stock has momentum for 3 days continuously, the risk may be worth taking once there is a fundamental backing.

I am sorry for being late.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 11 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Buying volume still low. The market is still waiting for the major buyers to step into the market.

Volume is showing up in some equities little by little.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 10 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The buyers are still few, but with the current price of oil, I am expecting more buyers to start sneaking into the market. Looking at the weekly/monthly fund’s portfolio gain/loss, we can see the loss is reduced compared with the Friday 6th April 2018 figures (see my posting on Monday https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/3396#66548482).

In terms of current buyers’ apathy, I cannot blame anybody. The type of losses our portfolio has suffered recently does not make anybody a happy investor. Even if we have not suffered a loss, the gain will be very little. Just like me, after waiting for about one week for a stock to come down to my level to buy and reduce my total acquisition cost, I had to go for another stock as I do not wish to add to that stock at a higher cost when I am already in a loss position. In line with market dictate, we need to slow down, till we see momentum returning to the market.

You may want to confirm the reliability of what I am posting, verify from this site: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NGE what you will see will be the information you have received on Monday or it has been updated (will be what we have had on Tuesday). Therefore, I want to assure you that as much as possible you are getting the fact plus additional information to take a good investment decision.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT 9 APRIL 2018/MARKET COMMENT

Surprise, the fund bought shares yesterday across the board. Let us see if this will continue during the week.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 6 APRIL 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT FOR WEEK ENDED 6 APRIL 2018

This market has hit most investors so hard. It is like a period for taking some time off the market and planning the next move.

The fund may not make substantial investment for now as the capital gain from the market is at a very low level; see the information below the movements.

Due to the state of the market, any purchase now need to be backed up by strong fundamentals to prevent immediate capital loss. I am having these equities on my watch list, but will only buy when my indicator show that there is momentum for positive price movement; Forte Oil, Transcorp, CCNN among others. My safe bet will still be on any equity that will not be affected by any deterioration in the Naira/Dollar rate.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT WEEK ENDED 4 APRIL 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The fund returned to the market still in the usual mode. Normal action likely to return next week.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum.

MSCI MOVEMENT WEEK ENDED 3 APRIL 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The fund kept a clean slate for 3 April 2018.

This is no surprise due to the major event expected by the end of today. This week is likely to be for the market makers to have a field day.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum.

MSCI MOVEMENT WEEK ENDED 29 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The fund merely increased buying/selling momentum on Thursday in the usual equities it has been focusing on lately.

For this week, the market will be for bargain hunters. However, by next week the market is expected to be more volatile after the outcome of the MPC meeting would have been digested by the big money that can have good impact on price movements.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum.

swilo:
Who cares?

Yok doesn't read your posts.

MPC / FOMC, once price is right---buy. End of story.

Okay. Thanks for the correction. At least we all have idea of what I am talking about.

FOMC or FMC

Okay. Thanks for the correction. At least we all have idea of what I am talking about.

MSCI MOVEMENT 28 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

Market still dull. Expect extra dull market from today till next week Wednesday.

The big money will only start their move after the Nigeria FOMC decision is made public.

Therefore, still keep your money for now or go for holiday and enjoy yourself.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum.

MSCI MOVEMENT 27 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

With the large caps appearing in the top gainers, the market is finding stability little by little.

On the need for balance portfolio, we need to diversify our equities around various sectors. This will ensure that if there is downturn in one sector it will not drag down our portfolio. For many investors that withstand the recent bear market, diversification must have helped.

Important point to note is that our investment must not be concentrated in just one sector alone not necessarily investing in so many equities. For example, during the Fx scarcity period, businesses that do not need FX for operations or earn forex did very well. This was the time Okomu, Presco and those sectors that earn Fx were the toast of the market.

For most business are doing well because Fx is readily available, when dollar starts rising; many sectors that are Fx dependent will experience some difficulty.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum

MSCI MOVEMENT 26 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The funds style has become consistent. Thus waiting for what fund is doing has now become boring. But, no problem, time to switch back to our knowledge bank of technical/fundamental analysis.

There is no doubt that the market is waking up from slumber.

Equally I am very happy with some of the results released yesterday. It indicates that that some companies still cares about their shareholders (talking about CCNN and MRS). These are stock worth keeping in our watch list for the future.

Tomorrow, I will like to talk about the importance of a balance portfolio in our equity investment. As humans need balance diet to grow, our portfolio must be balanced to avoid deficiencies that can befall an unbalanced portfolio.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI MOVEMENT 23 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The position of the fund as regard what is being sold and bought continues as per the current trend.

Now is time to start looking at our watch list. The selling momentum is fading.

The fund has been moving money out of the market for some time. Now is the time to see when fund will move new money into the market.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt. For any clarification you can always send me a mail via this forum.

MSCI MOVEMENT 22 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

Market still finding stability. However, good time to start buying quality stock, but with the ability to withstand the risk that is still in the market till the first quarter results start flowing in.

I like this bear market as it gives me the opportunity to go back to do further research to improve my stock investing strategies. As to why I like this market as it is, it is an opportunity to get good equities at promotion prices. I see good opportunity in FCMB at the current price, despite the fact that the dividend for 2017 year end will be about 5K, the potential for future return is above average.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent s