₦airaland Forum

DOOR TO UPSIDE MOVEMENT IS OPENING/SELECTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING 1 DEC 2017


Looking at the prices of many stocks looking like already beaten down. Good opportunity, to get some good stocks at bargain prices.

Below is the weekly forecast of high/low prices. After looking at my analysis personally I will be willing to buy the following stock at these prices:

Dangote Flour- The following day that the stock will close above 9.25
May and Baker: Good buying zone
Nigerian Breweries: Buy following day price goes above 139.50

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX CLOSE ON FRIDAY WAS FANTASTIC

I was watching the market numbers on Friday afternoon, the quality of gainers are door openers for positive market turns.

Therefore, I expect the index for this new week to close positive. This week will be a good one for us to position ourselves for the Christmas bonus/December rally. A lot of stocks like International breweries are in the market. I feel like jumping the gun and making some recommendations right away. However, I have to retrain myself and go through my usual data/charts. I hope I will finish quickly enough (got some other pressing issues to attend to). I will try my best, if no time I will just pick the high probability stocks that are in good supply/demand or median line positions.

Hope to come back with something ASAP.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

REVIEW OF HIGH/LOW PROFIT FORECAST FOR WEEK ENDING 25 NOVEMBER 2017.

Many equities are trading at their support levels. Thus, from this weekend, some price appreciation is possible. A case in point is May and Baker, Transcorp, Champion Breweries etc. Let us see what the final closing figures for Friday will look like. For the all share index, for there to be substantial appreciation, index has to close above 36,939.40.

The above is attached. The purpose is for one to be able to view a stock performance at a glance and know when a stock is loosing momentum of the current trend.

If you are interested in the excel sheet you can e-mail me.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

REVIEW OF HIGH/LOW PROFIT FORECAST FOR WEEK ENDED 17 NOVEMBER 2017.

The above is attached. The purpose is for one to be able to view a stock performance at a glance and know when a stock is loosing momentum of the current trend.

If you are interested in the excel sheet you can e-mail me.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

QUIET TIME IN THE MARKET- FUNDAMENTAL INVESTORS SNEAK INTO THE MARKET- ONE FUTURE BLUE CHIP WORTH BUYING NOW

The market is scary for now no doubt. However, the shares of International Breweries is likely to be a good buy. Using the earning trading system, tomorrow will be a good price to buy the stock. The foreign Investor in the business are very big when it comes to Brewing business in the world.

If cannot buy immediately for any reason, price around NGN42 will be a fantastic entry point. For this you may wait till about Wednesday an then buy if the price is still below NGNG50.

See the chart below. The current price is about .618% retracement. See the chart below.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

TIME OUT – THE MARKET IS BECOMING CLOUDY- NEED FOR TIME OUT

For the past six trading days, the market has been in a trading range. Although the week closed on the positive side at 37,120.28 for the week. The chart is sort of hesitating from going higher at close to a resistance level, thus to avoid buying close to resistance point, this week will be a good period to wait and see what the market will do, as we are all waiting for the last major rally expected for the end of the year.

There are so many equities with good 3rd quarter report for which the market is yet to respond. Probably the next 2 weeks may start throwing up new sets of major price gainers. Those that have shown substantial gains recently seems to be getting tired, example is Dangote Flour

Based on last price forcast for some equities in week just ended the actual result is below plus the expectation for next week.

If you are interested in the excel for the weekly price forecast, you can mail me and I forward to you.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

COMMENT ON NSE ALL SHARE INDEX FOR 3 NOVEMBER 2017/OTHERS

Last week was a positive one. The big equities did well as reflected in the percentage change for the week on the Official weekly report, see the premium index performance. Looking at the NSE All share index projected high/low points for the week is shown below. I have realised that simple mathematics works in the market an we will use it to guide us on what to do. Wlii follow up next week on this.

Further to my last week posting. Dangote Flour was among the 10 top for last week. However, CI Leasing failed to appreciate despite the good result (won ti gba penalty lo si throwing??- using Small Doctor song). Therefore picking up from here, after review of the charts using support resistance and supply and demand, CI Leasing is in a very strong buy position, with minimal risk to the downside. The expected gain is meaningful, while the stop loss is equally very low, just because it is good to have stop loss (I will put this at about 20kobo). projected high and low for this week likely to be: High – 1.78 : Low- 1.68

The time horizon to yield profitability is equally very short, within one month.

Equally the high/low prices for NSEALL share, for this week and the next one month are projected as follows:

High Low
Price Projection- For Week Ending 11/11/17- 37,248.22 36,383.79
Price Projection- For Month of November- 37,429.51 35,543.07

If you are interested in the spreadsheet for these weekly high and low forecast spread sheet, you can send me an e-mail via my profile in the forum. Send me the list of stock you are interested in an I will e-mail the monthly projection to you for the indicated equities.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

I AM INTERESTED, READY TO GET THE MANUAL AND READY TO START

e-mail: kelanio2002@yahoo.com

I am interested kelanio2002@yahoo.com

Hi,

I am interested in this popcorn an biscuit business. Will like to add request for Caramel popcorn.

I am ready to start the popcorn business, I have the machine.

My phone number is 08023054935

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX LEVEL FOR 30 NOVEMBER 2017

Last week was not bad for the index. Although there was a slight decrease compared with the previous week, gains by mid-cap/small cap stocks sustained the index from the fall.

This week is expected to be another good week, with demand coming into the market. The news of the fact that Nigerian stock are still in the MSCI index should impact the market positively.

On the closing note, with stocks like CI Leasing, Dangote Flour it is penalty time for people holding investments here. I am sure it will straight goal for profits.

Now with this MSCI news, now time to look for a good stock that will attract the attention of the foreign Fund Managers. Probably the banks may be the first to benefit and the likes of NBL, Guinness etc.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

NSE AL SHARE INDEX SHOWED STRONG REBOUND- GOOD DOJI REVERSAL YESTERDAY

i an enjoying this market. The reality is that the market can be scary, there is no free lunch. Even a stock that will go up will 1st experience what seems like some downtrend, as a way of making the inexperience traders to release their stock.

Good season to play the earnings release game. For this I will be looking at transcorp for now. A move above the price of NGN1.53 (buy timing is the second day price goes above this figure). The stop loss will be NGN1.32.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

I want to learn how to make caramel popcorn. I need somebody that can train me.

Awaiting lead from anybody urgently. The trainer must have a physical location I can contact. You can call me on- 08023054935

Thanks.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX LIKELY TO OBEY THE STRONG SUPPORT LEVEL THIS WEEK- 22 TO 27 OCTOBER 2017

Looking at the all share index chart. The current support level will likely hold for the week.

Let see how this play out for the week.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

THIS MARKET IS HIGHLY TECHNICAL

Yesterday, I saw the index closed on the nearest support level. Today it refused to go down.

What this is telling me is that, a player in the market nee to have some knowledge of Technical analysis to make money. Equally the sectoral leaders of recent have been very clear without any confusion.

See the chart below.

NSE ALL SHARE INDEX TRADING CLOSE TO AN IMPORTANT LEVEL

37032 is the closest supply point. A close above this level will make the uptrend to continue.

The good news is that this month started well, there is a strong support close to the current level. The worst that may happen is for the market to be in a trading range. Thus, there seems to be no need for panic.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

[quote author=fxuser post=61378125]Thanks. The levels were given in advance. Usually at the beginning of the month. What I have sent is just an extract for some selected stocks.

The service is actually based on subscription to get the full details.

Seems not too bad. At least I have what will likely be the market direction for about one month in advance and thus know how to plan myself. The NGN1,525 is the first target, there is a second target at NGN1.71 to 1.81,Pivot points etc.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

gentop1:
It cant still be compare because the USA has more stock to trade and their is no limit set to price of stock compare to limit se here,you can make a price appreciate of more than 150% in a day and vice-versa

You may contact MerryFX Nigeria. It is a subsidiary of Meritrade Nigeria. I believe they can allow you to trade some selected US Stocks- https://merifx.com.ng

GAME PLAN FOR SEPTEMBER EARNING SEASON

Since I started using supply and demand levels. Trading stocks has become more clearer and less stressful. I can effectively set my buying/exit levels in advance without any fear.

Below charts show what I expect the market to do for some equities CI Leasing, Transcorp, Dansugar etc. I will not be buying immediately the earnings are released, as I will like to catch some fast move.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

To the charges add brokerage : 0.25% to 1.35% depending on stockbroker

POSITIONING FOR 3RDD QUARTER- GOOD ENTRY POSITION FOR DANGOTE FLOUR

The Chart below is a good low risk entry point. Stop loss of 10% is okay. The entry is close to a good demand point. This entry is like one of the best textbook entries one can get. The market will likely be slow to move between now and next week. Nigeria FOMC meeting is Monday/Tuesday.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

The market dropped 2.85% in the 2 trading days for the week- but many equities close to supply zones uptrend expected to return.

The market is in a retracement mode as at now. The good news is that for the equities that are in uptrend, many are in the demand zone that should be able to slow down the 2 days down trend. Among the charts showing this are NSE all share index, Honywell flour, Oando etc.

This is another indication that the market is responding well to technical analysis, such that somebody with some knowledge will not be too confused.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

NEXT MAJOR SUPPLY LEVEL IS 41,004

The market has been doing well recently. The good thing is that on the major index, although there is a minor supply level around 391124.65 on which a minor retracement may happen. The above level has a major supply there. The effect of this is that we need to see how the index will behave when it gets to this level and then we align ourselves as necessary.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

STOCK MARKET REVIEW OF CCNN, OANDO AND TRANSCORP AS POSSIBLE CANDIDATES FOR FAST MOMENTUM PLAYS.

The above equities using physical observation are good for upward movement in the short/medium term (this is the best horizon) to operate in for maximum return as at now in terms of low priced equities.

Looking at the EMA, the current prices are good entry points. Secondly supply points gives room for upward movement (this also apply to the all share index as at Friday’s chart- 4th August 2017).

As a continuation of the supply/demand strategy and adding some twit of Wyckoff method, personally I have chosen to enter OANDO to replace my holding in Eterna Oil. My intention is to keep close watch on CCNN as it has started behaving as expected (I was able to survive the lock up period as I withdrew my sale instruction as the price was trading below my specified limit selling price then), the stock may move higher since the market is now reacting positively to the good earnings report.

Profit taking is expected from time to time withing this month. My personal intention is to stay close to the market and extract as much profit from the market between now and September ending. Early October, I want to be back in the market for mop up exercise which I am sure will deliver the father Christmas rally (there is high probability of these positive expectation materializing due to the application of the appropriate trading system). You will observe in my last posting that, I now don't worry about looking at the market everyday again, equally the stocks I will be buying are now reduced (my system will whittle out many) and will only enter at those points that momentum to the upsides will be high.

Sorry, I do not want to write too much story, the comments on CCNN, Transcorp and OANDO are in the charts below.

My next post will be explaining why trading is the best business one can do especially on part-time basis. My recent experience just clearly showed this as I was involved as a team in a Consultancy to set up one SME for a Client. Where can I put NGN100k and make NGN20k by month end, without the risk of losing my whole capital? Trading of course. I will give the example of buying Oando at NGN7.95 today, I want to get out when I make 20% profit, while my stop loss is places at NGN6.98.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

MY COMMENT ON OANDO, FBNH, DANGOTE FLOUR

I refer to my previous posting on OANDO. The stock went below my projected 1st support level by about NGN1.00 . And price is now back to the previous range before the SEC issue. What this price reversal to the trading range is telling us is that the insiders are confident about the fundamentals of the company, at least in the short/medium term. We should not be surprised if the recent low is the lowest the stock will make in the next few months. It is equally probable that the company will end up winning the bid to carry out the maintenance of one of the refineries. This is the information I can gather from the recent price action behavior of the the equity.

On FBN. From the technical as well as the fundamental (my own style, this time relying on the past history for the school season/wide public holding of the stock). There is a strong supply level at NGN7.28 to NGN6.93. The stock is likely to find it difficult moving substantially beyond this level If I hold this stock, I will look forward to selling about end of August (if the earnings, generates positive reaction which move the price) and them will think of buying afresh by end of September, good demand point is 5.93 to 5,71 . The chart indicating the immediate supply level is attached. I am sorry, I cannot give more information here as to how I arrive at this my opinion. Apologies to the die hard supporters of FBNH, but let us see how the market will move. This information is just for guidance purpose only


DANGOTE FLOUR. The economic fundamentals still favors the industry where this company belongs.. If I have bought, I will stay put, till the expected earning report is made public. Closest supply point is 5.20 to 4.78, all things being equal, I expect the price to jump above this level due to the pending earnings report. The closest demand level is equally 4.32 to 4.04, what this is telling me is that on no circumstances should I allow the price to fall to this level before I sell (need to sell far from this point) if the total market turns bearish, as this will be a good point to consider a re-entry.

I have discovered that the use of this supply demand system has simplified my buying and selling, such that I can comfortably ignore monitoring the stock prices everyday, just look at the prices twice a week and my investments are still safe as I can determine what to do some few days ahead. And this system seems to have compressed so many indicators to simply 2 levels. Let me give a gist here, I am into Afriprud, my supply level indicated supply levels as 3.10 to 3.10 and then 3.00. If for the coming week, I only decide to look at the daily price list on Wednesday, price show 3.10, I will be preparing to sell some quantities about 3.00 to may be 3.08, this make life simple and easy for me. Note that I am not saying Afriprud price will fall, but this is just my personal plan for handling my investment in Afriprud.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

I LOVE THIS MARKET- IT WILL RESPOND WELL TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND SOME HISTORICAL SEASONAL FUNDAMENTALS

Technical analysis seems to be so good, that it can predict what is currently happening or likely to happen in the nearest future.

I will pick up Transcorp, the stock is staying withing the demand levels of 1.20 and 1.43. For this current season, there is likelihood that the expected uptrend movement will materialise, no matter any game the market makers may want to play out. The chart for transcorp that I have posted previously indicating the above demand points still stands.

Now to OANDO, I read OANDO's submission to the Senate on the Port Harcourt Refinery matter, the defense was pure political statement. Don't be surprised if the price did not fall as we commoners are anticipating (powerful interests are involved in this company from the North to the South), when I see the unusual volume from the blues, preventing the free fall, I will continue/conclude this my write-up.
Another fundamental point here (powerful interests behind a company), if you doubt: what is the difference between Multilinks/Starcoms that are now dead and Etisalat that has just been rescue by the powers that be? I am one of those that will be looking as when the effect of this SEC issue wanes and the uptrend is back again. Chart indicating the 1st support level for OANDQ is below.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

MARKET EXPECTATION OF BETTER EARNINGS MAY REDEEM SOME STOCK FROM THE DULL MARKET

The recent fall in prices has dealt a big blow to our recent gains. I tried to sit down to see the damage done to my portfolio, to my surprise, it was not much. This realisation made me to return back to my senses and be prepared to face the market again.

One of the lessons I have learn is the need to avoid illiquid stocks or at best use them for Jijo, I exited May and Baker with the First loss since the recent bull trend. The loss was approximately 21%, a hefty NGN32K. Just put this behind me.

The earning season expectation prevented me from selling Honeywell Flour at a low price as the stock inched up today. Equally my new pick Transcorp is likely being kept alive on the positive side by the positive earnings expectation. Again, this shows the importance of some fundamentals in a particular stock, can keep them up in times of turbulence. Again the make up of what is fundamentally important is a big debate, for me it is expectation of a positive result better than the previous quarter of last year/last year in general.

Despite the earning expectation, if a stock fails to move up this week and next week, 24 To 28 of July is likely to be a dull week, due to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

BEARS LOOSING MOMENTUM AND SOME STOCK SHOWING LIKELY RECOVERY

I have made it a point of duty recently to watch the opening prices. This give me the opportunity to see the stocks that are strong at opening and then equally I review the closing to see those stocks that closed very strong.

I wish to comment on the followings among my observations. If the all share index closes negative today again, then we are in a temporary down trend. The impact of this is that the effects of a good 2n quarter result may be watered down.

I see strength in both Dangote Flour an Transcorp. Both experienced some loses in the early hours, but recovered later in the day. The recovery for Dangote Flour was very good, while Transcorp is good as it is approaching the supply level of NGN1.20 as shown by the chart below.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently

STOCK MARKET NOT A BANK AND NEXT SUPPORT FOR MAY AND BAKER LIKELY TO BE NGN3.43

The trapping of some investors fund getting trapped in May and Baker is a big lesson, that the stock market is not a bank where you can just leave your gains (better to cash out from time to time). Also, better not to start calculating profits until you actual get your funds out of the market.

However, some major pharmaceutical have been recovering from the recent losses. Looking at the recovery in Glaxo and Fidson, the probability of the losses in May and Baker abating is likely as shown by the chart below. For this reason, since my gain is about to disappear (bought at 3.49), I have decided to withdraw my sale instruction, was an unpalatable decision, but this is the stock market, prices moves up or down.

On CCNN, depending on your purchase price, one may still wait to exit in the 1st 3 days of trading for the week. There seems to be some liquidity here compared with M & B

COMMENT ON SUPPLY/DEMAND LEVEL FOR CONOIL- WAIT FOR MOMENTUM TO RETURN BY PRICE BREAKING THE NGN50.15 LEVEL

For Conoil, some supply points are close by as indicated in the chart below.

There4, if the investor is comfortable with short term trading, entering at a price above NGN50.15 (you need to wait for momentum to return) will be a good trade with the NGN67.00 as the target.

This strategy is one of the effective systems for trading earnings reports.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.

Cadillac15:
BAD ADVICE. WILL DEFINITELY BURN YOUR FINGERS



Never going to happen in the next 3 months. Results will be out in less than 4weeks from now. The mine is already ripe for gold production.

Thanks Cadillac15, this my opinion it is based on technical analysis done by myself considering my risk appetite. My money is at stake here and I need to protect myself from too much risk. I am not out yet, I have just indicated where I will exit (price going below 4.50). i am closely watching this stock. We don't need to argue, the market is the final judge. Mind you that, If the stock never goes below 4.50, I will still be holding the stock and if see the stock going above 5.56, I may buy again in the future.

MARKET RETRACES- FIBONACCI COMES TO PLAY- WATCH 31,887.96 LEVEL

This week ended the recent bullish run in the market. But, the general uptrend is still on. The next determinant point will be the above level of 31,887.96, if market refuses to bounce back at that point, the index may go down further.

However, the interesting thing about this market is that it is only equities that gained more recently that are mostly affected by the prices collapse/profit taking. I expect the down trend to continue next week as the funds need to realize some profits for their shareholders.


There is high probability that the bull will only return in July. Therefore, if we see that our position is threatened it will be a good time to sell. I see no justification, in allowing a profit to turn to a loss in the face of rapidly falling prices, when I can still pocket some profits now, then come back to buy same equity at as lower price. For this reason, if I bought May and Baker at about 3.50, by the opening of the market on Tuesday, I will liquidate all my holdings fast.

Likewise, I am keeping Dangote Flour under close watch, once it goes below 4.50 I will sell for a minimal loss of about 5%. I expect this to retrace to about NGN3.65 To 3.85 which will be a fantastic entry point again. The chart for this is shown below.

Knowledge of technical analysis is an edge in this market as it keeps one fully confident of what to do when there seems to be confusion in the market. For now, I have liquidated some stocks to have funds to play the Quarterly return game, which should be part of the bread and butter strategy for a good technical analyst. It could be risky, but if we know how to play it, it is highly rewarding. This is the junction we have been waiting for. I will give one "expo" here within the next 2 weeks.


Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently.