₦airaland Forum

MSCI MOVEMENT 21 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

Fund return with increased selling following the release of the 2017 result by Access Bank.

Seems our waiting period for market to stabilize continues. This is period to continue watching the stock that are trading at big discount levels.

On a parting note for today, I wonder what is wrong with Diamond Bank. Seems to be the black sheep of the fund’s portfolio.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI MOVEMENT 20 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

Selling by the fund is winding down. Stability is getting to the market little by little. The result by Dangote Cement was good, but fall short of the estimates expected by the analyst. Dangote Cement is a very good stock with substantial holding by various funds.

The initial reaction to the reports since it fall short of the estimates is likely to be negative, but the negative reaction may not last long.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. You may need to verify the data from other independent sources if in doubt.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 19 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund is slowing down on selling. The quality of gainers yesterday is pointing to the possibility of the market finding stability soon.

But we still need patience, a person that has falling down from a 2 story building will do more limping compared with one that has fallen off from a bungalow. Therefore, bulls will not return immediately, there must be a period that the market will be limping.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 16 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund is slowing down on selling.

I have observed recently that Mondays are down days for the market. I am sure of this probability being true over 50% of the time. This lead me to the maxim, do not buy stocks on Mondays. This will likely hold in view of the current trend in the market.

Thus if I am interested in buying any stock, I am likely to start looking at opportunities from Wednesday this week.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source

OUR LAWMAKERS/GOVERNMENT AND CBN HAVE ALLOWED HERDSMEN TO ENTER THE STOCK MARKET

In January, the country got a warning on this FOMC matter. Now the meeting for march is being shifted again due to lapses in appointing the committee members.

Our Government is loosing touch with reality, indirectly they are chasing away our foreign portfolio investors.

The Government really need change and third eye or is it third force?? Hmmmm.

Caution: This is my personal opinion.

OUR LAWMAKERS/GOVERNMENT AND CBN HAVE ALLOWED HERDMENT TO ENTER THE STOCK MARKET

In January, the country got a warning on this FOMC matter. Now the meeting for march is being shifted again due to lapses in appointing the committee members.

Our Government is loosing touch with reality, indirectly they are chasing away our foreign portfolio investors.

The Government really need change and third eye or is it third force?? Hmmmm.

Caution: This is my personal opinion.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 15 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The market still looking for stability. The fund is selling but at a reduced mode.

Time for freeing the market from the bears is likely to be elongated by this FOMC issue. I felt for the investors that have been affected by this downtrend. Unfortunately the market has no emotion for what any investor is going through. As investor we have to put in necessary strategies to checkmate ourselves without falling into the temptation of buying when we suppose to stay out of the market. For me the control is putting myself in the “mode” of the market, for now the market is in “silent mode”, abstain from buying till FOMC issue is settled or matter appropriately priced into the market via time.

Also if I see any equity that has no promising expectation in the next 6 months suddenly hitting new high, I will sell without blinking an eye; for this reason I am selling my Fidson with a limit order of between NGN5.20 and 5.00

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 14 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The selling continues. For me I will wait till end of next week/when the MPC meeting date is confirmed before placing any buy order. It will not be out of place to see a big drop in prices between now and the confirmation of the new MPC meeting date.

The selling party continues. You can ignore any advice to buy for now (even if it is from me). We need to stockpile some cash against the declaration of the 1st quarter 2018 results.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 14 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The selling continues. For me I will wait till end of next week/when the MPC meeting date is confirmed before placing any buy order. It will not be out of place to see a big drop in prices between now and the confirmation of the new MPC meeting date.

The selling party continues. You can ignore any advice to buy for now (even if it is from me). We need to stockpile some cash against the declaration of the 1st quarter 2018 results.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 13 MARCH 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The Fund continue selling in line with the recent trend.

Back to my support for NAHCO. Technically, not much to write about, the stock is in a demand Zone.

Fundamentally, it is a defensive stock that can withstand pressure of Forex fluctuations. Target is about 4.60 while the stop loss is price going below NGN3.00

Caution: This is not an investment advice.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 12 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The selling continues. But the fund continue buying Unilever.

Market likely to continue in the dull mode. Looking at next week being a FOMC meeting week. If the meeting fails to hold, expect the general battering of the market.

I have observed that my market study activities has become very boring to some extent. Despite the fact that I now pick whatever I need to invest on with ease, the quality of the result is now better than what it used to be. An example is my buying FCMB just some few days after the fund step in, buying at NGN2.50 although look scary then, but the result is visible as the stock has escaped the sword of the bears.

Although not only following the fund has contributed to this, I have equally make better use of the information provided by the trading platforms in terms of orders not yet executed (pending orders). I was having the temptation to invest in some of these insurance companies that the share was falling rapidly. While doing my research in the morning before the market opened, I saw a very big sales order with no pending buying order (this told me that the price will continue falling) and alas the price fall continue for Regency Alliance Insurance.

The essence of my point is that if know how to use a simple tool very well and master it. We will perform better than somebody with a wide general knowledge.

As a parting gift for today, looking at the sensitivity of the market to the Naira/general market catching cold when the dollar sneezes investing in NAHCO may not be a bad idea. I will give a comment on the technical analysis of the chart tomorrow.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 9 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The selling continues.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 8 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Selling continue. Of particular interest is the selling of UBA, the fund seems to be selling at a loss. What this implies is that the fund will continue selling and may not add new units of this stock at least for now.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 7 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund is hitting the sales button so hard these days. It is selling like no man business.

I am starting to align my thinking along the line that the banks are likely to declare low dividends for year ended December 2017.

Watching the activity of the fund has put in check my exuberance for buying shares all the time. Now I have no doubt in my mind that the market is likely to come down further. This is no time for taking big risk, especially in low quality stocks.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 6 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund is in full gear selling. For the current situation, trend will still be bearish/range bound.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI ADDITION FOR 5 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

MSCI ADDITION FOR 5 MARCH 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Need to tread with caution. The fund's action looks unstable comparing what happened on Friday with yesterday's action. Yesterday’s action definitely indicated that the fund took some money out.

In my personal opinion, I am taking a little step back from the market to think out the next line of action. This may be a period of "no action is the best action" (at least for some few days or weeks).

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.


Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

MSCI movement for 2 March 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

The fund did quite a handfull of transactions of Friday. More additions than disposals.

With this one kobo rule, it may be a time to deign a strategy that may catch a stock that is being punished by the market unjustifiably. If one get it right, one can make some good money quite fast. But risk is equally high. I am still thinking how I can figure this out effectively.

CAUTION: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used is assumed to be correct. However, you can verify the information from the source/other online resources. In case of any assistance required, you can mail me via this website

MSCI MOVEMENT IN EQUITY POSITION 1ST MARCH 2018

MSCI index just dumped Seplat and still uploading on FCMB, Unilever etc.

Going into FCMB by the funds means the fund is following the trail of Genesis.

For now the market is for those who are prepared to wait as so many stocks are in trading range with little volatility in the market.

CAUTION: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used is assumed to be correct. However, you can verify the information from the source/other online resources. In case of any assistance required, you can mail me via this website

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 28 FEBRUARY 2018

The Fund is positioning/cashing out some gains.

To profit from the funds move we need to have FCMB and Unilever in our watch list.

On FCMB I will say this fund have just started the purchase. It will not start selling until the stock fails to meet the funds expectation. By the way, there is another fund that owns over 1 billion units of FCMB, and I don't think that particular fund have started selling FCMB. There4, you are left to make your own decision.

CAUTION: This information is for educational purpose only. Data used is assumed to be correct. However, you can verify the information from the source/other online resources. In case of any assistance required, you can mail me via this website.

MSCI ADDITION 27 FEBRUARY 2018

The Fund added FCMB, Dangote Cement, Unilever etc. On the selling side were First Bank , Fidelity, Transcorp, Diamond etc.
The market is yet to settle down.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. All the data are assumed to be correct. However, the information can be verified from the source.

MSCI MOVEMENT 26 FEBRUARY2018- NEW PICKS BY THE FUND FCMB AND UNILEVER

The fund added Unilever and FCMB to the portfolio. These are new entrants to the list as at yesterday.



Caution: This information is for educational purpose only.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 22 FEBRUARY 2018

Movement on the Funds position was minimal for yesterday. Equally it was another day of positive NAV, 21st February too was a very good day in terms of the positive change in the Net Asset Value (NAV).

The above is pointing to some stability coming to the market.

Caution: This is not an investment advice. Just for educational purpose only.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 21 FEBRUARY 2018/MARKET COMMENT

The fund sold some flour Mills, FBNH and Ecobank mainly. Some cash was immediately moved out of the portfolio.

Market likely to be quiet for some time, probably till early April 2018. The only issue that can jolt the market will be a surprise good performance by one of the highly capitalised stocks.

CAUTION: This information is for educational purpose only. The data are assumed to be correct, but you can verify the data if in doubt.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 16 TO 20 FEBRUARY 2017/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund sold again between Friday and yesterday. Coincidentally for Monday/Tuesday my computer was down and the fund's website was down too(no update). But I believe we have not miss much. For some people insinuating that the fund will post wrong info or fail to update, let us forget that. The fund is obliged by law to update their site/holdings (albeit they may try to delay by using some tactics, which is legal, but the delay cannot be so bad as to totally shield their action from the investors or give wrong information).

I let the bag out of the bag when I gave out our confidential information (ohun ti agba fi nje eko abe ewe lo wa). See my posting of February 8, 2018. This lead me to the fact that I don't read all the posts in this forum (I read the last 2 pages of each day and then go to specific posts by the people I have interest in their postings). I only read posts from the technicians/fundamental analysts, example if you want to read all my postings you click https://www.nairaland.com/yok/posts. This is the reason, I always tell people to send me a mail (sorry too if your e-mail has a name that seems to portray unseriousness or a time waster, I may neither read nor reply it, we are in serious business forget all the jokes you sometimes see here)

This is an opportunity to pick good stocks at low prices. If you are interested is a particular stock indicate a low limit price, let your broker place the order in the system or yo do it yourself. For example if I want to by Caverton at 2.40, I am not worried if my broker get the price or not (at least my money will stay in my account), but if the price come to that price, good for me. I have go my target stock at a price that I am comfortable with.

Caution: This is for educational purpose only and not an investment advice.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 15 FEBRUARY 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

The coast is now getting clear. seems is time to get ready for the second bullish ration for 2018.

With the situation for the past 2 days, there is high probability for the market to be bullish next week. I am already factoring in the fact that today will be a bullish day. For the Oando Audit, it is possible that the company will get away with just some sanctions which is not likely to impact negatively on the organisation.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only and not an investment advise. For any clarification you can e-mail me via this forum or contact an investment adviser.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 14 FEBRUARY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund continue selling, but less quantity than the previous day. Another observation is that the fund moved some cash out of the portfolio.

Therefore, if you read in about one or two months in a newspaper that MSCI reduced exposure to the Nigerian Stock market, that would be news that is dead and already buried.

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only. It is not an investment advise.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 13 FEBRUARY 2017/GENERAL MARKET CO

The fund made the 1st offloading move yesterday. You can see the effect in the %loss on the Allshare index. It was fairly higher than what we have been seeing in the past few days. That is the strength of monitoring what is the fund is doing for us all to see.

There is no need to panic, we should let out stops get us out of the market. While we minimise committing further funds into the market till the bearish reduces. One of the factors that reduce the bear strenght is the fact that we are close to an earnings season.

[b]I am enjoying following the major funds movement, it is news behind the news. If I am not able to analyse what the fund is doing on my own, I will not mind paying for this information. See what one would have saved be getting our earlier!!!

Caution: This information is for educational purpose only, it is not an investment advise.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 12 FEBRUARY 2O18/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

The fund added more Seplat yesterday, while the holding still remain intact.

Also on the general market comment. The Red card line is 38,130.31.

Caution: this is my personal opinion, is for information purpose only. There may be need to verify data independently on your own.

MSCI Position for 12 February 2018

The MSCI position is updated at about 8.30 am the following day except the weekend when it is always updated around Sunday morning.

For now we have to rely on our fundamentals/technical analysis.

You will see MSCI position tomorrow. But, like I said recently we have no option but to start exiting some of our position to prevent losses. We don't have a deep pocket like the big funds. If the funds start selling into this bear, then we will be talking about something else.

MSCI FUND MOVEMENT AS AT 8 FEBRUARY 2018

The quantities of equity holding by the fund still remains static, no addition no subtraction.

Now our purpose of looking at the funds position is to determine which of the equities currently in the portfolio is likely to be disposed. we do not want to be in such equity once the funds start selling!!!

Caution: This is just for educational/information purpose only. It is not an investment advise and all the data used are assumed to be correct.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 6 FEBRUARY 2018/GENERAL COMMENT

The Fund's portfolio is bleeding seriously. I do not expect more additions so soon.

Do we need to panic? No, we just need to continue monitoring the market with our technical/fundamental indicators as soon as the Macro market condition starts to change, we can start coming back to the market, the fresh people will still come to the market. I was reading today's thisday newspaper, [/b]what do you see there, stock market is booming kind of news!!!! Don't be surprised these people write after the action has already taken place. [b]We have finished eating round one, clean our mouth waiting for the next ration to be served.

So let us continue to monitor the market and look for stocks that will be involved in the next rally circle. At this stage good to offload the risky stocks once they hit your stop loss.

How i wish I can continue to write, this is why I like the newsletter where I can write a lot of things and give more recommendations. Tomorrow is another day.

Caution: This is not an investment advice. All data used are assumed to be correct, but you can verify them as necessary.

MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 5 FEBRUARY 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Fund not very active in the market. some quantities of Seplat added.

The market is resting for the moment. Opportunity to go for the defensive stocks.

If we have bought before the general public started shouting bull market, there is no need to panic, you can ease out of the market without too much anxiety. For me I am hunting for equities that will give bonus this year.

Considering the kind of profit some companies will be making in the financial year end, if some companies fails to give bonus, then that company should be avoided by a good investor in the future.

Causion: This is my personal opinion, not an investment advice. you are to verify the data yourself where necessary