obailala:
Northerners vs Northerner, you obviously do not know how those people you term illiterates worship Buhari. The SE and SS are the only areas that would vote sharply against Buhari and APC; but considering the fact that the only alternative would be 'another malam', you simply fail to note the severe level of voter apathy that would take place in the far south which is supposed to provide the much needed weight to push Buhari out.

For you to even assume that people down south would troop out of their houses, under the sun and in the rain, enmass like it happened in 2015 to go vote in an election with 2 northern candidates, you must be a dreamer.

Brother, if PDP doesnt get its candidate extremely right, Buhari is going to die in Aso rock.

see this guy o... under the rain and Sun?... abeg come to the south... everyday people troop out to go and get their PVCs.. lecturers abandon lectures, students abandon lectures, workers take permission and cue under the sun just to get their PVCs for 2019... people eye don open bros

dasparrow:
Buhari will win only because he is going to rig the elections. I pity Nigerians. Your suffering is about to continue.

That's not true, Buhari doesnt need to rig to win. The real reason why he may win is because he hasn't got any meaningful opposition standing against him.

You and those around you dislike Buhari so much, but can your numbers match the number of people that worship him especially up north? Do you even have your PVC?... how many of those around you have PVCs?

Elections are a game of numbers and not your personal sentiments or the sentiments of those you see and hear around you. Nigeria is a large space, and whilst those around you may share your views, you cant say so much about those far away.

Yes na.

Who no know go know.

It's Sai Baba all the way!

Feedeefee hasn't yet recovered from the 2015 humbling.

obailala:
Most of the points highlighted by the Op are very valid, Buhari is very likely going to win again if he contests. The 'loudest' voices of opposition against Buhari are still the same voices that screamed against him in 2015 but couldn't still pull the required numbers despite PDPs power of incumbency.

Right now with APC's current confusion and daily failures, coupled with the lackadaisical handling of the herdsmen crisis, this should have been a right time for PDP to get its act together and produce a solid candidate; but then again, its really complicated. A PDP candidate from the north could divide Buhari's votes, but then, a northern PDP candidate would also result in serious voter apathy in the SE and SS (cos only die hard passionate buhari haters would step out to go vote in order to just remove Buhari). If PDP brings a southern candidate (which is very unlikely), it has to be a person that would be acceptable across the entire south (e.g. Duke); else the Yoruba vs Igbo feud would just gift Buhari a landslide. Any way one looks at it, it doesnt seem like buhari is going anywhere yet, exvept he decides to step down.

Smart analysis

I am an Igbo man and I detest Buhari like say tomorrow no dey


But if PDP brings a northern muslim Fulani candidate like atiku, el rufai etc, then I have no single business with them

God forbid let me vote for another different side of the same coin

I no be Jacky I can't come and waste my precious time and energy under the sun for any mad man

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

Very true jare. Thank you for being sensible.

obailala:
Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 24 states, but he will very easily get that 25% from 26 states. The only states where he will struggle to get 25% are the 5 SE and 5 SS states (i.e. 5 when you exclude Edo).

In terms of total number of votes, you need to remember that PDP secured many votes in 2015 because plenty people were passionate about GEJ and PDP also had the power of incumbency. Now the northern crowd due to ethnic and religious sentiments will still kill themselves in 2019 to vote Buhari, even supported with their horde of underaged voters. But just imagine when PDP fronts a northern candidate, do you think a typical Igbo man will leave his shop to go stand under the sun and rain to vote for 'another Hausa man' all because he hates Buhari?... nobody really got time for that. There isnt any Jonathan whom people are passionate about anymore, voter turn out in the SS and SE amd even the SW would be much lower than in 2015; the fact is that people havent been provided with any hopeful choice, so a lot of people (southerners) lamenting now would end up not bothering themselves during the election for lack of a promising alternative. Hating buhari isnt enough of an incentive to wake and push people to go vote, but you can be sure that the love and passion for their candidate would keep the entire north awake.

this one dont know how passionate and united we the igbos are to kick the dullard out.
just wait and see,we igbos are tired of talking,there is no need to talk.the python dance scar is still on our cheek,we see it daily.

we will remember,the east will remember.

obailala:
That's not true, Buhari doesnt need to rig to win. The real reason why he may win is because he hasn't got any meaningful opposition standing against him.

You and those around you dislike Buhari so much, but can your numbers match the number of people that worship him especially up north? Do you even have your PVC?... how many of those around you have PVCs?

Elections are a game of numbers and not your personal sentiments or the sentiments of those you see and hear around you. Nigeria is a large space, and whilst those around you may share your views, you cant say so much about those far away.

And those numbers include massive underaged voters and influx of illegal foreign voters from Niger chad Sudan Mali etc


Buhari done already win

sikells:

see this guy o... under the rain and Sun?... abeg come to the south... everyday people troop out to go and get their PVCs.. lecturers abandon lectures, students abandon lectures, workers take permission and cue under the sun just to get their PVCs for 2019... people eye don open bros

People are collecting PVCs in expectation, but I can assure you that without any inspiring or charismatic or crowd-pulling opposition candidate in the public domain yet, the number of those you see going to get PVCs doen south is nothing compared to what is going on in the north even presently.

AK481:


this one dont know how passionate and united we the igbos are to kick the dullard out.
just wait and see,we igbos are tired of talking,there is no need to talk.the python dance scar is still on our cheek,we see it daily.

we will remember,the east will remember.

Yes we want the dullard out

But if PDP brings atiku as their candidate most of us won't still vote

After all no be us dey suffer for the dullard administration pass

Nowenuse:


Now I know that I have discussing with a politcally ignorant person. How can you say Buhari won Plateau in 2015? My own state?

Oga Goodluck won Buhari in Plateau state with around 100k votes. Go and check the records again! Buhari hss never and can never win in Plateau & Nasarawa states in the NC. APC only won in the governorship elections. Pls don't misinform people here and disgrace yourself!

Abeg free that clown they know nothing about politics but are forming mumu analysts. You have already schooled him enough

I beg me am tired if all these noise jare, make 2019 come n go make we know d next things to do. Gbam!!!

Nowenuse:


First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

Your comments are the most intelligent of all. I bet you a lot of people knows the truth already, how will Buhari win without votes from NC, SS, SW, SE? the figure from NE and NW will also be shared by the other fulani candidate don't forget. Now and especially in the SW we know it was Idiagbon that had that credibility not Buhari. So anything but not Buhari!

Buhari is looking forward to retirement jeje.......before his case becomes like Yar'Adua...uneasy lies the head that wears the crown

ClumsyFlimsy:

Yes we want the dullard out

But if PDP brings atiku as their candidate most of us won't still vote

After all no be us dey suffer for the dullard administration pass

Now I can tell you are not a true Igbo, what do you mean with the bold? Did you know who Atiku is? That man remains the only Northerner now that can win Buhari convincingly if he emerges as PDP flagbearer.

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

On point.
Buhari cannot get 25% from Edo. People will vote from experience not party. It's bye bye time for the dullard.

If PDP should pick a candidate from the north, votes from the NE, NW and Central will be split while the SW, SE and SS are willing to vote anyone contesting against Buhari. He can be defeated

There would be chaos in the country if buhari should win again...

Its like craze is doing some people.. Why vote a man that has made life unbearable for two square meals to survive..

Has anyone realised that the stress level in this country has increased?

Its like hardship is comfortable for some people..

Every day I pass third mainland bridge and I see people starring at the water beyond absent mindedly. Na so the water fine reach?




Buhari must go Jere..

obailala:
Buhari needs 25% of the votes in 24 states, but he will very easily get that 25% from 26 states. The only states where he will struggle to get 25% are the 5 SE and 5 SS states (i.e. 5 when you exclude Edo).

In terms of total number of votes, you need to remember that PDP secured many votes in 2015 because plenty people were passionate about GEJ and PDP also had the power of incumbency. Now the northern crowd due to ethnic and religious sentiments will still kill themselves in 2019 to vote Buhari, even supported with their horde of underaged voters. But just imagine when PDP fronts a northern candidate, do you think a typical Igbo man will leave his shop to go stand under the sun and rain to vote for 'another Hausa man' all because he hates Buhari?... nobody really got time for that. There isnt any Jonathan whom people are passionate about anymore, voter turn out in the SS and SE amd even the SW would be much lower than in 2015; the fact is that people havent been provided with any hopeful choice, so a lot of people (southerners) lamenting now would end up not bothering themselves during the election for lack of a promising alternative. Hating buhari isnt enough of an incentive to wake and push people to go vote, but you can be sure that the love and passion for their candidate would keep the entire north awake.

This man you truly a political analyst, I read people commenting on buhari must go, if he should go who are you banking on to replace him? That's the problem with we Nigerians we don't look at things from different point of view, buhari is not the problem here, the next president is and that is who'should buhari go back to daura like most Nigerians are craving for,who are we looking up to'who please.

aolawale025:
The candidate against buhari in 2019 would be a fellow northerner. The northern votes would be split

So whoever mama marries na dad be dat, anyway.

danduchi:
If PDP should pick a candidate from the north, votes from the NE, NW and Central will be split while the SW, SE and SS are willing to vote anyone contesting against Buhari. He can be defeated

Simple and direct flawless analysis and end of story!

buhariguy:
Out of 15m vote buhari garnered in 2015, 13m base vote is awaiting buhari even without campaign.

And nobody can garner upto 10m vote even with serious campaign with thief OBJ and ibb

13million votes are underestimated and under-apportioned. 14.7million votes are apt.

Who is that formidable candidate that can stand toe to toe with PMB in the current narrative? None to think of yet! Opposition are only winning on social media which makes no sense to the average Nigerian

Dumb post
The joker in every election since 1960 has always being the middle belt
With the Fulani herdsmen issue u think they will vote for APC
Besides its not about northern votes but 2/3 majority
Many of u don't understand this terminology in the constitution
So keep dreaming till a nobody beats buhari with all his almajiri votes

AK481:


this one dont know how passionate and united we the igbos are to kick the dullard out.
just wait and see,we igbos are tired of talking,there is no need to talk.the python dance scar is still on our cheek,we see it daily.

we will remember,the east will remember.

Bros, Im an Igbo man myself, and I can assure you that come next election, if PDP fields another mallam against Buhari, it would be another ofe nsala day in the SE.

Just in case you dont know, hatred for Buhari isnt enough of a driving factor to push people out to go vote; except there will be herdsmen attacks in the SE just prior to the elections or maybe an IPOB rally with soldiers shooting at people which can drive thw passion in people, the fact remains that hatred for Buhari isnt enough incentive to drive people in the SE out to go vote, especially when the alternative will likely be another Fulani mallam.

The real thing that can encourage people to vote is a charismatic opposition candidate; the love for GEJ was the reason a lot of people came out to vote in 2015.

obailala:
That's not true, Buhari doesnt need to rig to win. The real reason why he may win is because he hasn't got any meaningful opposition standing against him.

You and those around you dislike Buhari so much, but can your numbers match the number of people that worship him especially up north? Do you even have your PVC?... how many of those around you have PVCs?

Elections are a game of numbers and not your personal sentiments or the sentiments of those you see and hear around you. Nigeria is a large space, and whilst those around you may share your views, you cant say so much about those far away.

A riyal for your thought. Spot on!

HEART SURGERY https://donate-ng.com/campaign/ayeni-heart-surgery#.Wo19hhgqIPQ.whatsapp

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

So, you didn't know Yorubas can't wait to vote for Buhari again and again
Chai

my friend shut up. all those underage vote that gave Buhari a landslide edge NE and NW are gone. can't wait for the downfall of APC. Thank God for the likes of El-Rufai AKA demolisher. Daura Senior AKA Lord of the Flies, Kyari AKA Choir master etc. APc is gone and PDP will never recover IJN . This suffering, misery and deaths is enough.

People should wait until all the political parties conclude their primaries election before doing permutation for buhari, the Mr no nonsense and Mr integrity president buhari is enjoying before he was elected is not going to work for him anymore, because some people have seen the original buhari

Nowenuse:


First of all, you are wrong by saying Abia is one of the least populated states. Aba is the most populated city in the SE.

Do you think that the North did not rig elections for Buhari? How come there were no cancelled votes in the entire Kano state? What about the almajiris and underaged voters in the north?

The Card reader malfunctioned in many parts of the SE/SS..... Many areas of the SS quickly started manual thumbprinting but the SE areas did not. This was why their votes were lower.

I see you make many wrong points since you became active in politics section.
At the boldened, it's a blatant lie. There were hundreds of thousands of invalid votes from every northern state. On the contrary it's states from the SE/SS that always hide their results and claim about 99% voter turn out with zero invalid votes.

Ratello:

Now I can tell you are not a true Igbo, what do you mean with the bold? Did you know who Atiku is? That man remains the only Northerner now that can win Buhari convincingly if he emerges as PDP flagbearer.

Shut up

It's you that is not a true Igbo man

it's either you are not a true Igbo man or you short sighted. Do you really think atiku has any genuine thing to offer ndigbo. Him and Buhari are almost similar. If atiku wins; he will seek reelection and rule for another 8years coupled with Buhari 4, that's 12years to the north.. 12 fucking years.

I had rather Buhari even completes his tenure than fr another northerner to win and rule fr 8years

Due to Buhari incompetence and the madness of his Fulani brethrens, if he wins, there is a high chance of either restructuring or disintegration which I know majority of us want.


Do North will forever hold us back
They are not ready to be civilized and seek a better future which we igbos want


In this 21st century they are still archaic and barbaric imagine wanting to kill and conquer people in this 2018

Imagine using underaged voters-- this can't happen South East or South South. How I go stand wan vote small pickin go follow me, I go slap am na

The North is the reason why we are still underdeveloped, they are the reason why we can't hold our leaders accountable for their nonsense


Kenya is fast developing ahead of this shit hole


I dont want a northern president cause most of them are simply thesame. Atiku el rufai Dan kwambo are almost similar to Buhari

The only good northern president was yaradua and his people didn't like him. who knows if he even died a natural death

So I say no to Buhari no to to atiku

If PDP can't bring out Donald Duke then God forbid let me vote for another mallam

aolawale025:
The candidate against buhari in 2019 would be a fellow northerner. The northern votes would be split

Don't mind him, South East, South is 80% PDP while the north will share the vote between both candidates.

It's going to be a tough one in the sense that, the Northern candidate that will emerge from PDP already knows the tricks APC is going to use like the child voters and other voters from Chad, Niger.

He is also going to prepare very well, anyway talk is cheap till then.