Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

Anambra governorship election should give you a clue that Buhari will get 25% in almost all southern states.

Buhari has ministers and political appointees unlike 2015,who know that if Buhari lose their own job is over and this people will work to deliver.

And you will be deceiving yourself to believe that most PDP governors are happy that Wike and Fayose are now their leaders.

Buhari will win with landslide if he contest.

buhari will still loose gallantly...
go and write it down

Taaaaaa!!!!!! He will loose everywhere

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

obj rigged then but now forget about it

wrong!
reverse is the case, Place APC were PDP was in 2015 and PDP were APC was.. find x.
if your x value is not PDP2019, then you're wrong.

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

You have my deepest respect.

Let them be waiting for only votes in the NW.

Why didn't the NW give he the win in 2007 and 2011?

This is a fallacy of unwarranted assumption .
Have u asked yourself why Goodluck didn't go for second term despite all his Allies? The answer is simple; he failed Nigerian.
Now Buhari obviously did worse than Goodluck in all ramifications, so the same 'Nigerians decide' will oust him out of office come 2019.

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

if I see that nonentity who composed this shitt I will spit on his face and slap him

He is just so dull to think straight

What a fool he his

Let amdioaha strike him dead

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

...writers will always be writers. anf paid writers will never cease to amaze us...op,you wrote only from d vantage position of ur pay mastee.the APC... don't you realise that a cup that is half full is equally half empty?.. think b4 you conclude...remember kogi,benue, wot effect a northern candidate will hv on northern votes, d anger across the country cuz of killing spree of the herdsmen, anger across the country cuz of depression in economics, very widely publicised lopsided appointments..massive failure of the APC in anambra elections,divisions in d APC..haba! op,dt they pay you dox not mean they took ur sense away

yahmohy27:
Is it coz of what you read on social media? My oga shine your eyes

I don't live my life on social media. I know people who registered just to vote against Buhari. The good will he enjoys before now, is no longer there

This is ugly that means there will never be any solution to fulani Heardsmen.Oh well I will kindly stay put in the states until 2023.Enhoy your change and Have fun guys .

Cromagnon:
we don't shield anybody but ourselves
they do not ride on us
without us there is no nigeria
we are not submissive,we are sensible
if we break nigeria there will be no more oyel moni
you have a right to your opinion
but also the right to the reply to said stoopid fvcking opinion
tis a two way street dumasss
and anybody can claim to be yoruba online
but you sound like a bastard than a omoluabi

Why insult him? Are you an animal? Must all.yorubas think in one way to Satisfy your abnormal.criteria to be deemed Yoruba?

You are sounding like an imbecilee

Shawnnn01:
Igbo pigs n piglet will die of hypertension reading this ... lol.

People like you and other Ethnic warriors are the problem why Nigeria in particular and Africa in general has remained in darkness. You don't simply vote people because of your ethnicity or religion but their pedigree. If you are a youth, please change your orientation if not we're all doomed.
I remember my friends voting for Buhari in UNN just because of his pedigree (intolerance for corruption) which I believe now they all regret. At times you guys should think before typing. No Igbo man is a pig even the ones that didn't go to can make you look like a fool in practical terms.

Cromagnon:
we don't shield anybody but ourselves
they do not ride on us
without us there is no nigeria
we are not submissive,we are sensible
if we break nigeria there will be no more oyel moni
you have a right to your opinion
but also the right to the reply to said stoopid fvcking opinion
tis a two way street dumasss
and anybody can claim to be yoruba online
but you sound like a bastard than a omoluabi

Please take it easy with that boy na

ClumsyFlimsy:

Smart analysis

I am an Igbo man and I detest Buhari like say tomorrow no dey


But if PDP brings a northern muslim Fulani candidate like atiku, el rufai etc, then I have no single business with them

God forbid let me vote for another different side of the same coin

I no be Jacky I can't come and waste my precious time and energy under the sun for any mad man

Wait... you mean you hate buhari just because you're Igbo?

Nwanne o dikwa somehow.

ndubueze92:
People like you and other Ethnic warriors are the problem why Nigeria in particular and Africa in general has remained in darkness. You don't simply vote people because of your ethnicity or religion but their pedigree. If you are a youth, please change your orientation if not we're all doomed.
I remember my friends voting for Buhari in UNN just because of his pedigree (intolerance for corruption) which I believe now they all regret. At times you guys should think before typing. No Igbo man is a pig even the ones that didn't go to can make you look like a fool in practical terms.

I voted for buhari because of his tough stance against corruption.

I am not regretting it in any way.

Come 2019, God willing, I will still vote for buhari... if buhari decides to run again.

Sorry.

obailala:
Most of the points highlighted by the Op are very valid, Buhari is very likely going to win again if he contests. The 'loudest' voices of opposition against Buhari are still the same voices that screamed against him in 2015 but couldn't still pull the required numbers despite PDPs power of incumbency.

Right now with APC's current confusion and daily failures, coupled with the lackadaisical handling of the herdsmen crisis, this should have been a right time for PDP to get its act together and produce a solid candidate; but then again, its really complicated. A PDP candidate from the north could divide Buhari's votes, but then, a northern PDP candidate would also result in serious voter apathy in the SE and SS (cos only die hard passionate buhari haters would step out to go vote in order to just remove Buhari). If PDP brings a southern candidate (which is very unlikely), it has to be a person that would be acceptable across the entire south (e.g. Duke); else the Yoruba vs Igbo feud would just gift Buhari a landslide. Any way one looks at it, it doesnt seem like buhari is going anywhere yet, exvept he decides to step down.

so on point ! As you said most likely PDP will pick a northern candidate therefore voter apathy in the SS and SE - the people who are likely to vote are either die- hard buhari haters or people who want to sell their votes !

sexdoll:

Wait... you mean you hate buhari just because you're Igbo?
Nwanne o dikwa somehow.

No I don't detest Buhari just because I am an Igbo man

I detest buhari for his personality

I just wanted state it for the records based on what that guy said about se

If Buhari wins again in 2019, then it means that the whole Nigerians are FOOLS!

It will be a great insult for someone like Buhati to win presidential re-election, for what reason

If not bcoz of the cow that the hausa use to vote in 2015 do you think he will win

franchasng:
If Buhari wins again in 2019, then it means that the whole Nigerians are FOOLS!

It will be a great insult for someone like Buhati to win presidential re-election, for what reason

am sure that apc will use cow to vote again and underage too

With underage voters, vote manipulations and rigging

I had thought the country consented to a rotational presidency. But it seem the north has kept producing our president more to other regions.

christ007:
am sure that apc will use cow to vote again and underage too

No matter what, every sensible Nigerian including people from Daura ought to do everything possible to ensure Buhari fails in 2019!

Buhari has failed himself!

Buhari failed his God and humanity!

Buhari failed his wife and children!

Buhari failed APC!

Buhari failed entire north!

Buhari failed Chibok girls!

Buhari finally failed all Nigerians!


If Buhari wins in 2019, then all Nigerians deserve to be wiped out from earth using chemical weapon cos it means Nigerians dont deserve to live on planet earth!

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

The 2011 you talked about, everybody knew how he lost it despite the overwhelming votes from north; Buhari lost because of 2 reasons: rigging and religion. That was why PDP failed in 2015 when they couldn't used these 2 factors effectively. In fact, if not because of rigging PDP with it northern candidate would not have won Buhari in first ballot in the 2007 election. ya'adua himself admitted it.
''there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate''
Though you used conditional statement ''if'', but what are the prospect that SS, sw, & nc would overwhelmingly vote for one candidate other than Buhari. The big disappointment will come to those who think Buhari will loose from north central. For instance, is it niger, kwara, Nasarawa, or plateau that will overwhelmingly vote for another candidate who is not Buhari in 2019? Even benue, we will come to know that the herdsmen issue was just media hype.
That south west will overwhelmingly vote for one candidate who is not APC is like saying APC will lose control of all south west. Mission impossible comes 2019!
At any rate, chances are thin that if Buhari contests 2019 he will lose. That is why the only candidate those who wish to see Buhari out of Aso rock have is ''Buhari should not contest''.
Buhari will win entire north, sweep south west, win part of south south and get 25 in not less 3 states in south east.

OP obviously an APC jingoist. Your point #10 though - what gives him the impression religion + tribe won't count next year? They've always counted, they'll always count!
He also forgot to note that APC had the 3 richest states to finance 2015; there're only 2 of them now, with the remaining in the hands of PDP.
There are other isolated factors that his analysis overlooked viz the Benue crisis, Yahaya Bello's misadventures and Saraki's anti-factor in Kwara (NC), the Kwankwaso anti-factor and brewing crisis in Zamfara (NW) and now Yobe (NE). These are decimating factors his mathematical assumptions failed to highlight. Individual voter factor nko?

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

he needs at least 25% in 24 states which leaves 12 states he doesn’t need the 25 % . He will get at least 25 % in imo and Edo states - Which leaves 9 states in the SS and SE . Just fine !

franchasng:
No matter what, every sensible Nigerian including people from Daura ought to do everything possible to ensure Buhari fails in 2019!

Buhari has failed himself!

Buhari failed his God and humanity!

Buhari failed his wife and children!

Buhari failed APC!

Buhari failed entire north!

Buhari failed Chibok girls!

Buhari finally failed all Nigerians!


If Buhari wins in 2019, then all Nigerians deserve to be wiped out from earth using chemical weapon cos it means Nigerians dont deserve to live on planet earth!

I know it only a fool that will vote for him and the cows

Shawnnn01:
Igbo pigs n piglet will die of hypertension reading this ... lol.

you mean yoruba piglets eg senator Tinubu whose hubby was trashed. Epele Mr dreamer whose God is Igbos cause I don't know what brought Igbos into this matter.
OK I forgot, they are your God so you must mention them in every breath.

ClumsyFlimsy:

No I don't detest Buhari just because I am an Igbo man

I detest buhari for his personality

I just wanted state it for the records based on what that guy said about se

Okay.

It's just sometimes I keep on getting this idea that once you're an Igbo person you are NATURALLY supposed to hate on buhari.

By the way, what exactly about his personality makes you detest his person?

I'll like to know

aolawale025:
The candidate against buhari in 2019 would be a fellow northerner. The northern votes would be split

smart point

Nowenuse:


First of all, you were very wrong in your 2nd paragraph, when you said that people were still passionate about GEJ in 2015. ........your point on incumbency may have some weight, but not on any passion.

Except for the people of SS/SE who are heavily anti-APC and vote based on sentiments, no other region was passionate about GEJ. ......This was why my region the middlebelt who gave GEJ massive and millions of votes and many states in 2011, drastically reduced our support for him in 2015. We were dissapointed in him and we believed Buhari's change slogan. Same thing happened in the SW. But now I think we know better. So, what passion are you talking about?

2ndly, when you talk about the entire north being locked down for Buhari in 2019. I don't know if you are including the middlebelt in your definition of entire north?
Are you including the tens of millions of northern christians in the north to the die-hard ethnic and religious support for Buhari?

If you are, then I think you need some more lessons on the demography of northern & middlebelt Nigeria.

sorry,i hope you know Buhari has his own strategy for victory. All these analysis na water.