Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned - Politics (2) - Nairaland
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| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 2:34am On Jul 17, 2010 |
HERES THE FULL ARTICLE. . .PLS NOTE MY BOLDED PORTIONS SATURDAY, MAY 29, 2010 [size=14pt]Falling Money Supply And Rising Debt Are Bad Signs For The US Economy[/size] [size=13pt]A rapid fall in M3 and M2 money supply and the decrease in the Treasury market's 10-year inflation forecast are reviving concerns about deflation.[/size] To make matters worse, the US debt is approaching 90 percent of GDP, a level that historically slows growth. See the following post from The Capital Spectator. [size=13pt]The pundits are buzzing about the rapid decline in the money supply of late. The latest catalyst for the chatter is a story yesterday in the Telegraph, which ran this provocative headline: “US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus.”[/size] The story goes on to report: [size=13pt]The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. Monetary economist Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research tells the Telegraph that the descent in the money supply is "frightening." He says that "the plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly."[/size] [size=13pt]The Federal Reserve no longer publishes M3, although the underlying components are still available and so the series can be calculated by anyone inclined to do so. Unsurprisingly, other measures of money supply are falling too. The annual percentage change in M2, for instance, has been dropping like a rock for months, as the chart below shows. The trend is more than a little worrisome[/size], given the recent rise in deflation risk, albeit a mild rise and therefore one that may yet turn out to be a false alarm. The markets are constantly forecasting the future, but the forecasts aren't 100% accurate. Figuring out when they're wrong is the trick. That said, the Treasury market's 10-year inflation forecast has dipped under 2% over the past week or so for the first time since last October. So far, the market's inflation outlook is holding steady at around 1.9%, as the second chart below shows. [size=13pt]Did the Treasury market overreact? Is the threat of deflation overstated? Maybe, although the steep fall in the money supply is one reason for wondering. Another is looking around the world and seeing that the D risk is on the rise in Britain and Japan. Deflation in the U.S. and U.K. "cannot be ruled out,"[/size] warned Adam Posen (external member of the Monetary Policy Committee and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics) in a speech earlier this week. Economist Carmen Reinhart, co-author of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, made a similar observation yesterday. As the The Hill reported… The level of U.S. debt has reached a point at which economic growth traditionally begins to slow, a bipartisan fiscal commission making recommendations to the White House and Congress was told Wednesday. The gross U.S. debt is approaching a level equivalent to 90 percent of the country's gross domestic product, the level at which growth has historically declined, said Carmen Reinhart, a University of Maryland economist. When gross debt hits 90 percent of GDP, Reinhart told the commission during a hearing in the Capitol, growth "deteriorates markedly." Median growth rates fall by 1 percent, and average growth rates fall "considerably more," she said. Reinhart said the commission shouldn't wait to put in place a plan to rein in deficits. "I have no positive news to give," she said. "Fiscal austerity is something nobody wants, but it is a fact. Gross debt is at 89 percent and will reach 90 percent by the end of the year, said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), a member of the commission. The warning signs are mounting. Much depends on how the Fed conducts monetary policy from here on out. Nominal interest rates are low, virtually zero in fact. But as Scott Sumner, an economist who blogs at The Money Illusion, has repeatedly counseled, it's still possible to have tight money and low nominal rates. [size=14pt]As such, deflation may still be a risk at this point in the economic cycle. The solution? Growth. In particular, growth in a number of key economic metrics in May and beyond.[/size] But collecting and publishing the relevant data will take time. It'll be a while before we definitively figure out if all the deflation talk is really just talk. http://investorcentric.blogs.nuwireinvestor.com/2010/05/falling-money-supply-and-rising-debt.html |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 2:37am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: This clearly shows you are a slowpoke. If you use M2 alone as a proxy for the economy's size, then US economy has expanded from Sept '08 to March '09. If you believe that, then you are even more daft than I think: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/h6.htm .and mugu how do u have GDP growth with deflation? GDP can grow with deflation but it is a harder slog. For instance, an export dependent economy can have growth in GDP even at the same time it is having deflation. Besides, despite your inability to comprehend, that the US is facing deflationary pressures does not mean that the US is in deflation. From your own quote it tells u that the fall in M3 has meant that the USA has not been recovering properly The point is that GDP growth can co-exist with contraction in the money supply just as a GDP slowdown or contraction can co-exist with a rapid expansion in the money supply(as in Nigeria's case). To,therefore, proclaim that Nigeria is growing because of your advised 22% expansion in M2 is ignorance in its purest form. The Prof is expressing fears because of the future potential, as can be gleaned from the M3 figures, for the US to fall into deflation given the pace of M3's contraction . It does not negate the fact that, contrary to your bovine assertion, that you can't easily estimate GDP growth from the money supply. paddy_lo:Are you an id-iot by profession? I'm not making a case for the 'beauty' of deflation. I'm merely demonstrating that money supply figures are not a proxy for GDP growth. The fact that the US can experience GDP growth, 2.7% in 2010 Q1, at a time of the steepest contraction in M3 over 7 decades illustrates that your claim that the expansion in M2 is proof that Nigeria is growing is moronic. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 2:39am On Jul 17, 2010 |
In essence what the article is telling u is that the fall in money supply is forcasting GDP contraction and recession in the coming months Thats why obama and bernanke are eyeing new rounds of Stimulus and quantitative easing in the future. . . Again M2 and M3(Broader money Supply) growth is a signal of healthy economic growth anybody that calls himself an economist that doesnt know that, must have gotten his degree from university of pyongyang North Korea  |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 2:43am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: Again, that makes Zimbabwe and many other basketcases the fastest growing economies in the world over the past decade. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 2:45am On Jul 17, 2010 |
Again, that makes Zimbabwe and many other basketcases the fastest growing economies in the world over the past decade. Nice try but money supply in Zimbabwe measured in dollars has not grown at all since the local currency has also depreciated faster than they can print money. . . . |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 2:52am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: More moronic by the minute. So the true measure of money supply is by comparison with the USD? I believe a couple of years ago, the USD exchanged for 110 Naira, now it's 150 Naira. Adjusted for this, your rapid expansion in M2 doesn't look so robust. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 3:00am On Jul 17, 2010 |
More moronic by the minute. So the true measure of money supply is by comparison with the USD? I believe a couple of years ago, the USD exchanged for 110 Naira, now it's 150 Naira. Adjusted for this, your rapid expansion in M2 doesn't look so robust. Measure of value of money supply. . .U cant keep mentioning Zimbabwe without u also realizing/mentioning that the zimbabwe dollar is depreciating rapidly. . . .(Hyper inflation) causing the need to print more money. . .is that too hard to comprehend? If the zimbabwe economy has total M3 at $10billion zim dollars in 2009 while the exchange rate is ZD1000 - $1 and then expands M3 to $100billion zim dollars but then the exchange rate has jumped to ZD100,000 - $1 In essence money supply has actually contracted in dollar terms. . .and u cant expect GDP growth Thats why zimbabwe has been in recession for 10yrs,and only got out of it when it adopted the US dollar as its local currency |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 3:09am On Jul 17, 2010 |
I believe a couple of years ago, the USD exchanged for 110 Naira, now it's 150 Naira. Adjusted for this, your rapid expansion in M2 doesn't look so robust. The story u fail to tell is that it also appreciated from N138 to get to that N110 in a period of huge growth in credit supply to the private sector during soludos time In essence what matters is the stability of the naira,and it has been stable albeit within a band of N150 - N120 for 10yrs. . . http://www.cenbank.org/rates/exrate.asp?year=2004 |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 3:12am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: We're going round and round in circles because you are a simpleton. Let me repeat myself. Money supply is a good indicator of inflation/deflation pressures. For instance, countries with inflation in double digits, like Nigeria, will have an expansion in money supply because more Naira is chasing fewer goods in relative terms. You cannot, in an exhibition of your startling idiocy, proclaim that growth in Nigeria's money supply is proof of the level of Nigeria's GDP growth. It could simply be proof of our long running inflation problem. Please spare us your charlatanism. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 3:15am On Jul 17, 2010 |
From the BBC. . .The fact that u keep on mentioning Nigeria in the same breath as zimbabwe(laughable) shows u have no credibility and are grasping for straws Huge rise in Zimbabwe inflation Four out of five Zimbabweans live below the bread line, analysts claim [size=14pt]Zimbabwe's rate of inflation surged to 3,731.9%, driven by higher energy and food costs, and amplified by a drop in its currency, official figures show. April's inflation rate jumped up from the 2,200%[/size] recorded last month, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said. The announcement came after Zimbabwe's government created a commission charged with finding a way to curb the country's spiralling cost of living. There is high unemployment, and fuel and food shortages across the nation. Price increases to 'worsen' The surging cost of domestic electricity, food, fuel and commuter transport fares were at the heart of last month's price surges, the CSO said. Economists believe that these price increases will continue because Zimbabwe will be forced to import maize, a basic food staple, to make up for a lack of home-grown produce. The government has also recently warned of shortages of bread and flour, which may cause even more hardship. The BBC's Peter Biles said that only 10% of the country's winter wheat crop had been planted due to shortages of fuel and fertilizer. Last week, households in Zimbabwe were told they would be limited to four hours electricity supply a day in a move designed to support the country's wheat farmers, who need power to irrigate their crops. Economic crisis Rampant inflation is a clear sign of a deep economic crisis, analysts said. Critics have blamed President Robert Mugabe's policies, particularly the seizure of white-owned farms, for damaging the once self-sufficient country - in the past described as the bread basket of Africa. President Mugabe, meanwhile, has accused foreign governments of trying to sabotage Zimbabwe's economy and topple him. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6665749.stm |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 3:24am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: Compared to 2008, the money supply must have barely moved. Therefore, using your twisted logic, Nigeria's GDP has barely grown since '08. From the BBC. . .The fact that u keep on mentioning Nigeria in the same breath as zimbabwe(laughable) shows u have no credibility and are grasping for straws It's because you're boneheaded that you can't see that growth in money supply, as acutely illustrated by Zimbabwe, is more indicative of inflationary pressures than the silly claim that it's proof of GDP growth. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 3:25am On Jul 17, 2010 |
We're going round and round in circles because you are a simpleton. Let me repeat myself. Money supply is a good indicator of inflation/deflation pressures. For instance, countries with inflation in double digits, like Nigeria, will have an expansion in money supply because more Naira is chasing fewer goods in relative terms. I will try this one more time since u are too dense. . fake economist u wan try me. . . .u think its today i came accross products of quack schools like u. . .lets go [size=14pt]Money Supply M2 as a Leading Economic Indicator[/size] Reporting Focus from the March 2006 Edition of the SGS Newsletter The Federal Reserve will cease reporting Money Supply M3 on March 23rd. At that time, M2 will become the broadest monetary aggregate published by the Federal Reserve. As to M3, we have been looking at ways to estimate or model the components that will cease to be published, so that an M3 estimate could be published on at least a monthly basis. While efforts continue, the prospects for a meaningful M3 replacement do not look promising. This circumstance will be discussed in the April newsletter’s money supply section. [size=14pt]While it is not as strong an indicator as M3, particularly as to indicating monetary inflation pressures, M2 does generate reasonably good signals of pending recessions, enough so as to be used as one of the traditional leading economic indicators. It is the relationship between M2 and GDP growth that is explored this month.[/size] [size=14pt]The historical relationship between M2 and GDP growth rates can be seen in the following graphs. Shown is the three-month moving average of year-to-year growth in real (inflation-adjusted) M2, plotted against year-to-year growth in quarterly, real GDP.[/size]   In both graphs, M2 is shown with two deflations. The solid red line is deflated by the Pre-Clinton CPI-U, which is net of methodological changes introduced in the early 1990s to suppress inflation reporting. The dotted red line is M2 deflated using the official CPI-U. In both instances, the M2 in the current period has seen historically low real annual growth. [size=14pt]The second graph is the same as the first, except the plot of M2 growth has been moved, shifted nine months into the future against the GDP, so as to show the best correlation with GDP. Slowing M2 growth in the second graph — that already has taken place — suggests that annual real GDP growth is going to slow for at least the better part of 2006.[/size] While current real M2 growth patterns are consistent with recession, other periods of similar growth in the mid-1990s did not result in an official recession, although that may be more a GDP-reporting than M2-relationship problem. Since we have the benefit of having had M3 (no false alarms there) previously signaling a current recession, however, the M2 signal also can be taken as one for recession and one where the already weakened real GDP growth patterns will slow over at least the next nine months. http://www.shadowstats.com/article/money-supply-m2 |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 3:33am On Jul 17, 2010 |
TO REFRESH EVERYONES MEMORY. . .BELOW IS MY ORIGINAL QUOTE THAT STARTED THIS DEBATE WITH 4PLAY A DROPOUT FROM UNIVERSITY OF NORTH KOREA WHERE THEY TEACH QUACK ECONOMICS. . . "@4play one more thing u have to understand is it is fairly easy to estimate GDP from money supply growth. . .and growth of Credit to the private sector with exchange rates being fairly stable,steady money supply growth will indicate to u that there is steady GDP growth From the CBN website M2(Broad money) was Approximately N11 trillion Naira as at march 2010 While at March 2009 it was at N9Trillion While Credit to the Private Sector grew from 8trillion to 10 trillion in the period(March 2009 - March 2010) Pls see CBN website below" http://www.cenbank.org/rates/mnycredit.asp |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Beaf: 3:35am On Jul 17, 2010 |
Even to laymen like me, the BBC is not an economics text book. Can it be for an economics graduate? You never know! ---Sips cool drink and moves chair closer to the action--- |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 3:36am On Jul 17, 2010 |
This Paddy Lo is clearly stupid. You found a link that states that M2 is leading indicator and that proves what exactly?There are many leading indicators. The stock market is a leading indicator. NSE is still below way '08 levels, does that mean that, in contradiction to your M2 figures, that Nigeria's GDP has shrunk since '08? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 3:48am On Jul 17, 2010 |
According to Paddy Lo, from this chart, Nigeria is in better economic shape than China
|
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 4:17am On Jul 17, 2010 |
According to Paddy Lo, from this chart, Nigeria is in better economic shape than China Dude i plotted all those countries in my IMF Economic statistics/data page And it still shows a very high degree of co-rellation btw the countries with the highest M2 growth and those with high GDP growth. . .matter of fact the countries with the poorest growth rates were those with the lowest M2 growth(according to your chart)Switzerland, japan,USA,canada and UK while those with the highest were Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bolivia,Nigeria,Lebanon,zambia. . .and so on. . . of course china is an outlier,but the correlation is clear for all to see. . .click IMF link below [url]http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2008&ey=2009&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=79&pr1.y=11&c=446%2C672%2C912%2C913%2C218%2C223%2C156%2C694%2C924%2C293%2C922%2C146%2C534%2C926%2C466%2C112%2C158%2C111%2C754&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=0&a=[/b][/color][/url] Country Subject Descriptor Units Scale Country/Series-specific Notes 2008 2009 Azerbaijan Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 10.800 9.300 Belarus Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 10.024 0.200 Bolivia Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 6.148 3.300 Brazil Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 5.137 -0.185 Canada Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 0.414 -2.643 China Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 9.554 8.735 India Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 7.346 5.668 Japan Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change -1.193 -5.197 Lebanon Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 9.000 9.000 Libya Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 3.377 1.755 Nigeria Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 5.984 5.630 Peru Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 9.804 0.862 Russia Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 5.616 -7.900 Switzerland Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 1.780 -1.454 Ukraine Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 2.100 -15.100 United Arab Emirates Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 5.140 -0.670 United Kingdom Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 0.548 -4.920 United States Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 0.439 -2.440 Zambia Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 5.652 6.311 |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by ollypass: 8:29am On Jul 17, 2010 |
"When all you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail". At 4-play and paddy lo: what are the both of you doing?almost every thread on finance matters is being hijacked by the both of you and what is the prize you are both fighting for? Nobel for economics? I really have a preference for such threads that have the potential to add value to Nigerians and policy makers as opposed to stuffs like "what do you think bout mercy johnsons latest lip stick colour?" but the way you both are going bout your arguments makes those who are not "gurus" lose intrest in the thread, then before you realize the only person still following you guys is probably beef(who i guess is re-filling his glass as i type) Both of you are like two parallel lines and will continue to quote links from BBC to CNN just to prove his point and show the other a charlatan and in the process we lose track of the original argument which primarily is about our 7% growth and if there is a possibility the figures were cooked. I Really would love to call a truce cos the both of you are no doubt some of the brightest minds (on finance) as far as this forum goes but you should be able to translate that knowledge into empowering the rest of us with constructive easy-to-understand-for-a-lay-man suuugestions, not loose us in endless statistics that is just aimed at proving the other is a quack (which you both stayed up all night [Nigerian time] trying to do). Thank you for your time. (beef, make me glass while you at it) |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 10:08am On Jul 17, 2010 |
What makes Economics exciting is the light it sheds on what is happening around the world.Inasmuch as I will accept the fact that these two guys are right in their various analysis(depending on the angle u view it 4rm) I will also quickly add that all these are not necessary.The question remains,did our economy actually grew at 7%?And if yes what evidence(s) do we have to support this? IMF,CNN,WORLDBANK etc cannot answer these questions for us,we have to provide the answers base on the realities on ground.I think d reason y our country has not developed so much as expected is that our experts who r supposed to b d engines of developmental ideas spend more time studying the activities of these in't agencies or the US than studying our economy.And that is y an average prof.in a Nigerian uni cannot comment effectively on the happenings in our economy but can deliver a full gospel on d US economy. Also statistics cannot answer all d questions.There is more to facts than numbers.Did our GDP grew at 7% out of borrowed money?pls lets come home. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by member479760: 10:57am On Jul 17, 2010 |
Prof. GJ in action, we need more of this type of professor to lead us to the promise land. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 11:16am On Jul 17, 2010 |
Also,our understanding of how well d economy is doing r frequently influenced/dominated by d yearly fluctuations in economic activities.The question we should ask is,what determines growth?what is d role of capital accumulation and technological progress to growth.If we can provide answers to these issues then we r making progress. what can we say of FDI since d 1st Q?what can we really say of credit availability?Those who live in Nigeria will tell u clearly that there is no evidence of growth.That is also where I v problems with d GDP as a true measure of growth. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 11:26am On Jul 17, 2010 |
paddy_lo: Nonsense. It fails to show M2 growth proves GDP growth. My M2 chart was for the period from October '08 to October '09. Let's look at the 2009 GDP growth from your figures: Nigeria's M2 growth was double that of China and India, both of whom had faster 2009 GDP growth than Nigeria. Amongst the countries with +40% M2 growth: Brazil(-0.18%),UAE(-0.67%),Libya(1.75%) and Belarus(0.2%) all showed less than robust GDP growth as the bracketed figures show. Can anyone but an oaf now validly claim that robust M2 growth is proof of robust GDP growth in Nigeria? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 11:34am On Jul 17, 2010 |
Hehehe. . . I didn't make up any stats - this is what I said: Without seeing the details of the NBS' analysis, it's not clear how realistic or otherwise their assessment of growth is. I haven't looked at their analysis yet, so I was giving a possible explanation for the growth and nothing more. The question is, what is the growth element in the 'non-oil sector' being described? Is it export, manufacturing or something else? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 11:43am On Jul 17, 2010 |
chamber2: The reality is that Nigerian statistics are very dodgy and so swallowing Govt agencies stats is unwise. In the developed world, it's actually very difficult getting credible GDP numbers and we often have to wait for revisions to announced GDP figures years later. For instance, the US announced that Q3 '09 GDP growth was 3.5% only to reduce it to 3.0% and then 2.5% . Q1 '10 GDP was announced at 3.0% and has been subsequently reduced to 2.7% for now. If you therefore think that Nigeria's stats are credible, then you must be an ignoramus. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 11:55am On Jul 17, 2010 |
4 Play I never said u should take d stat 4rm FG without a pinch of salt.We r saying d same thing here,how reliable r these figures?dats it. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 12:08pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
chamber2: I agree with you. I'm directing my comments at people who don't take these stats with a pinch of salt. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Ibime(m): 2:10pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Una still dey here dey argue? I think both of y'all should be magnanimous enough to concede that both arguments have merit. You are simply arguing over 2 of the 4 variables of the equation of exchange. This argument is just going round in circles: Paddylo: We can extrapolate GDP from Money Supply. 4Play: We cannot extrapolate GDP from Money supply. . . . unless we also know the Velocity of Money and Price (inflation). I think both of y'all are just agreeing with each other. . . . but making an argument out of it!  |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Beaf: 2:38pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
^ To we on the ringside, can just knowing the Velocity of Money and Price (inflation) without knowing other economic fundamentals of the country in question enable accurate economic predictions? Me thinks not, so let the gladiators argue; there is very much to be learnt here. There are very sound minded economics gurus on NL, some whose name begin with a "pap", others with a "nai", yet another is making into my book of reckoning with a "4". |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by kobikwelu(m): 2:44pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
7% wetin on paper that is |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 2:54pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Macro Economic Indicators Broad Money M2 N Credit To Private Sector N Inflation Rate - Year On Year % % Inter-Bank Rate % Monetary Policy Rate % Treasury Bills - 91 Days % Deposit Rate % Prime Lending Rate % Crude Oil Price (Bonny Light) US$ External Reserves US$ Crude oil is just part of it. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Beaf: 2:56pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
olly pass: Waiter, please bring one more sit to the house! Abeg, chill wit dat odeku dia. There is indeed a lot of value in the ongoing arguement. We keep hearing figures that don't seem to make sense or translate into benefits on the street, maybe we can actually get a feel for where the money is, if there is actually truth in the tremendous growth figures being bandied about or if the growth is strictly tied to oil; so benefits might only be felt by foreign oil companies, far from our shores. Does agriculture actually provide 42% of our GDP? Is that possible? Where do we get our figures when we have no institutions or reliable statistics in the country? So many questions. . . The BBC-CNN references will help dissolve the "grammatic" aura around the science used to sell us these figures. In Warri parlance, "niked de question" (strip the question unclothed). |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 3:20pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Ibime: It could be that I'm not making myself clear or that you have a problem with comprehension, I think it's the latter. To restate the money supply argument in its simplest form: Paddy Lo: Growth in M2, given stable exchange rate, indicates steady GDP growth 4 Play: Growth in M2 does not indicate steady GDP growth as alternative causes, particularly inflation, can explain M2 growth. In general, I don't think any right thinking person should believe the growth figures coming out of Nigeria, particularly over the last 2 years. We have an inflation problem, in the past 2 years we have defended the Naira from plummeting against the USD by depleting our foreign reserves from $60bn to $40bn. The country is facing serious economic headwinds, yet we are being told that we are having 7.2% growth and some muppets, in the name of patriotism, lap it all up. Beaf: Apparently, the unemployment rate is just 19% and inflation is 11%! Nigerian GDP growth, which I think is less than the official figures, doesn't affect the common man much as Nigeria has huge structural inequalities that mean that a disproportionate amount of income is 'captured' by a small segment of society. Income inequality is a worldwide problem but it's more acute in Nigeria. |
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