Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned - Politics (3) - Nairaland
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| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 3:27pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
@Beaf dats exactly what I am asking.What do we have 2 show for these outrageous figures? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by OAM4J: 4:03pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
. . . and the conclusion is?  Anyway I enjoy all the analysis, you guys have upgraded my Economics knowledge. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 4:04pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Paddy Lo: Growth in M2, given stable exchange rate, indicates steady GDP growth Pls where did u get this 4rm? What of a situation where money supply is rising two to three times faster than GDP with stable xchange rate?Does this also indicate steady GDP growth? FOR THE NON PROFESSIONALS/ECONOMIST: In economics, the money supply (Ms)or money stock, is the total amount of money available in an economy at a particular point in time.[1] There are several ways to define "money," but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits (depositors' easily-accessed assets on the books of financial institutions). Ms=M1+M2 M2=MS M1: (narrow definition) currency in circulation+demand deposits.Bank reserves are not included. M2:represents money and "close substitutes" for money.M2 is a broader classification of money than M1.M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation. That relation between money and prices is historically associated with the quantity theory of money. There is strong empirical evidence of a direct relation between long-term price inflation and money-supply growth, at least for rapid increases in the amount of money in the economy. That is, a country such as Zimbabwe which saw rapid increases in its money supply also saw rapid increases in prices (hyperinflation). |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 5:39pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
In case anyone is befuddled by this debate, let me try and explain it as succinctly as possible in the way I understand the question of money supply. Under the Quantity Theory of Money, Money Supply (M) multiplied by the number of times money changes hands (Velocity) is equals to Price/Inflation (P) multiplied by the Quantity of output (T) MV = PT If the money supply is 1 trillion Naira and velocity is 5, then MV is equals to 5 trillion Naira. It follows that if output is 1 billion products then average price is 5000 Naira, therefore, PT = 5 trillion Naira. From the above, if the average price increased 20% to 6000 Naira or output quantity increased to 1.2 billion, that will make PT = 6 trillion Naira. In this case, MV will have to increase to 6 trillion Naira by, for instance, the money supply (M) increasing to 1.2 trillion Naira. The problem is that Paddy Lo claims that an increase in M is proof of an increase in T! He is engaging in a circular reasoning. In reality, an increase in M can be a result of an increase in P (inflation), which I think is the case in Nigeria, as V & T(changes in velocity and output) tend to be relatively constant as monetarists insist. If you don’t accept that V & T are constant, that introduces an additional element of uncertainty as changes in M can be a result of changes in V, T or P. Either way, you can’t assume the contentious issue, change in GDP, as a premise in your proof . Effectively, Paddy LO is making the absurdly circular argument : “ Nigeria’s GDP growth is strong (proposition to be proved). The fact that Nigeria’s GDP growth is strong (unproven proposition converted to premise) can be seen in strong M2 growth”. Yes, growth in money supply may be evidence of GDP growth but it’s not proof of GDP growth. In reality, as velocity and output tend to be constant, money supply tells us far more about inflation/deflation pressures in an economy than anything else. If money supply, going by the cited CBN figures, increased 22%, that could simply mean that inflation increased 18% and GDP growth was 4%. We don’t really know as the Govt official inflation rate of 11% is questionable. In addition, the banking crises and its attendant effect on credit can reduce velocity which will require the CBN to pump more money into the system thereby increasing money supply. Only a fool fails to exercise caution in accepting Govt stats. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Ibime(m): 5:55pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
4 Play: OK, lets rearrange this debate into you guys TRUE point of contention: Here we have the formula: [b] Money Supply x Velocity of Money = GDP (GDP = average price of goods x no of economic transactions) So, holding velocity of money as constant, the argument roughly translates to: 4Play: M2 growth could cause inflation (rise in price), rather than GDP growth. Paddylo: Growth in M2, given stable exchange rate, indicates GDP growth. So in other words, you are saying that Paddylo's argument filters down to: Paddylo: Stable exchange rate nuances the effect of inflation on GDP growth. Paddylo, Can we hold this statement as the main bone of contention in the argument, or have you been misquoted? I am ready to open the floor for you guys to debate the above statement. . . |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by 4Play(m): 6:05pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Ibime: Paddy Lo ignores inflation, or seems to think that it's only a function of exchange rates, and the effect of the banking crises on velocity. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 6:10pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Paddylo: Growth in M2, given stable exchange rate, indicates GDP growth. [b]What u quote above is correct. .However note that this is in the context of a third world country where other means of measuring economic activity are hard to get Things like Purchasing managers Index(PMI) Unemployment claims Regional Manufacturing indexes, like the Empire/chicago and philadelphia indexes Now in a country like Nigeria,what does that boil down to. . U look to M2,credit growth by banks and so on in a situation of stable Exchange rates to give u an idea of economic activity Of course oil production figures,Manufacturing Capacity utilization,Electricity demand and so on are a good gauge but we have a mostly service economy. . .for example manufacturing is only 5% of GDP Most employment is in the informal sector. . .small/petty traders,small farmers,and so on If u cant see that in that respect the better gauge is money supply growth then i cant help anyone on here our exchange rate has held steady for 10yrs. . It has a moderating effect on inflation,and Inflation itself is close to single digits [/b] |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 6:20pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
Paddy Lo ignores inflation, or seems to think that it's only a function of exchange rates, and the effect of the banking crises on velocity. Pls read the Quotes of Razia Khan of standard chartered Bank a renowned economist that is knowledgeable on Nigeria [size=14pt]CBN to Appreciate Naira to Forestall Looming Inflationary Risks[/size] 17 May 2010 [size=13pt]Head of Macroeconomics and Regional Research, Africa, Standard Chartered Bank, Mrs Razia Khan has predicted the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will have to appreciate the naira to forestall looming risks of higher inflation growth in the second half of the year. "Given the obvious problems with the transmission mechanism of interest rate policy, we continue to believe that the authorities will have a preference for tightening through the exchange rate. Any naira appreciation might forestall threatened price pressures"[/size], she said in a report last week. Continuing, she said, [size=13pt]"To date, Foreign exchange reserves have been largely static around USD 40bn, despite the rise in both oil output and price. A number of explanations are given _ Joint Venture payments by NNPC, more frequent disbursements from the Excess Crude Account etc. But given the continued favourable outlook for oil prices and production levels, we would expect FX reserves to rise in time, facilitating FX sales. Rather than aim just for Foreign exchange stability, the CBN might find itself allowing the NGN to appreciate as the preferred means of tightening policy. Indeed with 17 months of import cover already in place, there is little reason why this cannot begin soon. There would be little risk of a steep bond market correction if tightening is conducted through this means, and in the context of policy visibility, it may even prove to be the more popular policy."[/size] Corroborating Khan's prediction, a former Director of the CBN, who spoke on condition of anonymity said, "Considering the favorable outlook for oil prices and the improved production level with sanity in the Niger Delta, we must try to firm up Naira to encourage the production ends take advantage of cheap imports with a strong regulation of importation of finished products but adequate imports of raw materials for production-The likes of importing concentrates to produce juice must stop because if agric is improving we must have a factory that will take the agric output for adding value rather than rotting away in the farms. [size=13pt]Consequently, as election money is coming, CBN must have arsenal of instruments to mop it up and make Naira scarce and exchange rate appreciating for the growth and lowering of inflation. High inflation rate will continue if Naira depreciates because this has a direct feed into inflation for an import dependent economy.[/size] We should note what Ghana has done to improve their economy through the exchange rate route; although Nigeria is a big economy-it is still relevant The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN had raise alarm over increasing threat of rising inflation. The Committee in the communiqué issued at the end of its meeting noted that in the next quarter monetary expansion may be driven by increased government spending, the purchase of toxic assets by the AMCON (Asset Management Company) and recapitalization of distressed banks. These expansions may translate into the risk of higher inflation, asset price bubbles or pressure on exchange rate and foreign reserves. The next MPC in July will assess these risks and take appropriate actions." [b]Assessing the policy options available to the apex bank to combat these risks, Khan noted that an interest rate policy via adjustment of the Monetary Policy Rate would not be effective due to "obvious problems with the transmission mechanism of interest rate policy." She said, "The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its Monetary Policy Rate on hold at 6% and the corridor around the MPR unchanged at its meeting yesterday, largely as the market had expected. However, the rhetoric on inflation was distinctly more hawkish, with the CBN warning that while inflation risks were limited in the near term, (and therefore any reversal of the accommodative monetary policy stance at this time would be 'premature'), by the next quarter it could be all change. Monetary expansion might then be driven by increased government spending ahead of elections, the purchase of non-performing assets by the AMC (expected to be operational by July), as well as the recapitalisation of distressed banks. The concern is that all of these factors might exacerbate liquidity sufficiently to pose some risk to both inflation and FX stability[/b]. The next MPC meeting, scheduled for early July, will 'assess these risks' and 'take appropriate action'. "Also noteworthy was the extension of guarantees on interbank placements to mid-2011, from the previous expiry date of end_2010. The move serves as a timely reminder that although progress has been made with various aspects of the banking sector reforms, the process is not yet complete. Creditors and investors may still require additional confidence-boosting measures in order to justify exposure to the rescued banks. Moreover, with credit growth still disappointing - retail lending rates have only just started to fall, and moderately at that - there are strong arguments in favour of keeping interest rates low. "So what is a central bank to do when faced with the dilemma of a potential rise in inflation risks amidst sluggish credit growth, and a banking sector evidently still in need of support? Given the obvious difficulties with the transmission mechanism of monetary policy for the moment, an outright adjustment to the MPR, or the corridor around it, looks increasingly less certain. Banks are generally flush with liquidity. There is minimal borrowing from the CBN window. It is not clear that a hike in the repo rate would effectively achieve a material tightening. Similarly, an increase in the rate on the CBN's Standing Deposit Facility, say from 1 to 2%, may not be hugely effective in curbing excess liquidity. It would also send the wrong message to banks that are being encouraged to expand asset growth. "Given the obvious problems with the transmission mechanism of interest rate policy, we continue to believe that the authorities will have a preference for tightening through the exchange rate. http://allafrica.com/stories/201005170108.html |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by OAM4J: 7:25pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
4 Play: I think this should be the logical conclusion for this debate, or so it seems to me. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by ollypass: 8:43pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
In the absence of indices used by the government for our in house gurus to ponder on:i dont think there can be any logical conclusion to the topic but maybe hopefully to the debate.To all contributors from chamber2 to ibime thanks for breaking it down,beaf special thanks for the drinks, God bless Nigeria! |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 9:09pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
[b]@paddy_lo I am your biggest fan, but I wont be totally agreeing with you on this one. National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) is one of the Bureau that needs serious reshuffling based on its almost non-relevancy. Based on personal experience with some of the top officials down there, I am not really sure I would take their findings seriously. They have a history of coming up with baffling figures and statistics with little or no validity or reliability. Sometimes, they come up with conclusions that makes me want to cough. Mostly, when they claim that theres a sharp drop of inflation in Nigeria, pitching figures that are just plain fictions. I have meet some of their workers, and these are people who have no idea of how research proposals could even be written let alone of using DCT (Data Collection Tools), or could they employ the use of survey, probability or non probability sampling, random sampling, systematic sampling, quota sampling, strata, validity test, and reliability tests which are necessary before hitting this kind of conclusion. IMF relies on all these false data and sometimes, they use statistics from Alliance & Bernstein an organization believed to be in the pocket of Goldman Sach, a company currently suffering from serious negative image. Its sheer fallacy to quote this figures paddy_lo because Nigeria is a country with no systems in place. The ones in place are designed and installed by political saboteurs to create a free flow of benefits to their sponsors and themselves; example: Transcorp, the fraudulent front called Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) created by Obj and his pet-boy Charles Soludo to win federal contracts and projects despite their sheer overinflated proposals within West Africa. You shouldn't confuse the US for Nigeria, it took them more than 300 years to get that organized and systematic, you can dream this for your country, but realistically, the figures you are pushing are just unreliable and invalid. I wish I am wrong, but I am not.[/b] |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 9:30pm On Jul 17, 2010 |
@ OAM4J Right on: growth in money supply may be evidence of GDP growth but it’s not proof of GDP growth. In reality, as velocity and output tend to be constant, money supply tells us far more about inflation/deflation pressures in an economy than anything else. Thanks a lot man. Velocity of money, GDP, NI, Per CI, and all other economical tools have their flaws and have been proved as unreliable tools in third world countries. We dont want to think in an elitist style here and ignore the teeming populace said to depend on 5% per day by the same IMF. It would paradoxical. But seriously, paddy_lo still has some points and hes right in someways. Economical Growth and Quality of Life are 2 separate things. @paddy_lo I still love you man, maybe we can hook up when you hit naija? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 1:12am On Jul 18, 2010 |
the fraudulent front called Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) created by Obj and his pet-boy Charles Soludo to win federal contracts and projects despite their sheer overinflated proposals within West Africa. Damn i couldn't let that slide. . I am the biggest fan of the Africa Finance Corporation(AFC) AFC hardly deals with GOVT,they are an investment bank that invest in either the debt or equity tranch of ongoing mostly private sector projects Like the MAIN ONE cable.The offshore Oil fields of Ghana,and seven energy oil/gas company in nigeria to name a few U should be proud of that Investment bank cause it was set up by Nigeria The trouble with us Nigerians is we are too skeptical atimes AFC is an idea ahead of its time that only a genious like SOLUDO could have come up with by the way AFC has a billion dollar balance sheet,so they fund projects across Africa not just west Africa Listen to CEO below. . . http://www.africafc.org/ [flash=680,385] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em53P6K49bo&hl=en_US&fs=1[/flash] National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) is one of the Bureau that needs serious reshuffling based on its almost non-relevancy. Based on personal experience with some of the top officials down there, I am not really sure I would take their findings seriously. suit yourself but note that most GOVT statistics is generally received with a pinch of salt everywhere in the world. .most traders here also question the USA GOVT numbers or CHINAs numbers when it comes out. . . Thats why u have to look at other stats like M2 and Bank credit to private sector that are generally easy to capture and not controversial in helping u make a decision Something else u can rely on is the Profit/Revenue profile of the 245 listed companies on the NSE. . To the extent that u have GDP growth u should have topline or Revenue growth @paddy_lo I still love you man, maybe we can hook up when you hit naija? Why not its always good to network. , ill be in lagos and Abuja |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by mbulela: 2:09am On Jul 18, 2010 |
paddy_lo: Do you blame us? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 2:16am On Jul 18, 2010 |
Do you blame us? U cant turn skepticism into a natural way of thinking and not miss out on glaring opportunities there have been Stock Analysts calling for DOW 1000 since 1990 here in the USA If u listened to them u probably missed the once in a lifetime run up to DOW 14,000 Same way if all goes well,there are lots of bank stocks(and other stocks) today in Nigeria that will triple or quadruple by 2020 If we maintain our average of 7% growth we saw in the years 2000 - 2010 Thats an opprtunity i dont wanna miss. . . .  |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by OAM4J: 5:58am On Jul 18, 2010 |
aasog: Guess you are referring to 4 Play. He made the statement, I only quoted him. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 6:06am On Jul 18, 2010 |
AFC? Whose Ex boards includes: UBA's Elumelu, Cecilia Ibru of Oceanic Bank, Erastus Akingbola of Intercon, majority of them, currently been probed by the EFCC? I worked there, And did you know the reason Lamido hasnt shrilled the peep on them is simply because hes been given a fat slice on the boards? I know about the big ego tussle between Soludo and Elumulu after the former left CBN and wanted to take control of the corporation. You seem to keep ignoring the Nigerian factor. Well, still I liked your bigotry of opinion. Just dont believe everything when you are in Nigeria or you will be in big trouble. Down here, you open your eyes as twice than while you were in the US. Our value-system doesnt recognize the long run benefits of trust. Everyone is into quick, especially the guys in the top positions. @OAM4J Thanks for been sincere dude. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 6:20am On Jul 18, 2010 |
AFC? Whose Ex boards includes: UBA's Elumelu, Cecilia Ibru of Oceanic Bank, Erastus Akingbola of Intercon, majority of them, currently been probed by the EFCC? Again u are mistaken. . .the Central Bank Governor by default sits on the board of The AFC since the CBN owns 42% of the shares Also the rest of the banks own minority shares in the AFC,thats why they sit on the board When will Nigerians stop looking at individuals,and start looking at corporations? this is not an elumelu,ibru or cecilia matter. . This is a matter of UBA,Inter and Oceanic bank having holding in an Investment bank that is destined to grow big And all American banks were probed and fined Heavily in many Bank crises of the past From Goldman sachs,JPM,Morgan stanley and so on Go read about LTCM,Savings and loan crises and many more scandals That is what bankers do,the CEOs can over extend themselves sometime. . but over here they dont tear them down because they know the Importance of banks in the economy Again Sanusi cannot tear down what Nigeria has built and what he is the majority shareholder of,holding in trust for Nigeria so in essence your fears are misplaced |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 6:53am On Jul 18, 2010 |
U cant turn skepticism into a natural way of thinking and not miss out on glaring opportunities. The people of Nigeria v become atrophied and the mistrust of govt and people in govt is as a result of many years of seeing govt systematically lying to its people.So u dont blame d pple 4 dat,just give us some time. Regarding the bingo called Sanusi,I dont just v a word 4 him now.Soludo remains a hero. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 8:54pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
Gosh!!! Where exactly did you get the information above from? The article questions the validity of the information yet you continue to inundate us with the same in hopes of accomplishing what? Any who, below are links to reports from the first quarter of January 2010. This was the same exact period Nigeria was in political quagmire and the Acting president came in and cleared all former ministers so he could bring in his own pick
For a sector that supposedly comprises just 16-18% of the country's GDP, there would have to be significant rise in production for this sector to cause a 7.3% increase in GDP, given that all other sectors were not doing well during the same period. No knowledge of economics necessary here. Simple pencil and paper with some math skills will suffice. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 10:10pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
Gosh!!! Where exactly did you get the information above from? How about u read some of the links to articles u post. . .dumbo. . your link specifically states oil production rose nearly 100% from 1.2 - 2.2million btw jan 2009 and jan 2010 Lesson. . If your production is 1.2millionbpd(Jan - March 2009) and Rises to 2.2million bpd(Jan - March 2010). . .Then you have had growth when comparing Q1 2010 to Q1 2009 [size=14pt]Nigeria’s crude oil export for last month averaged 2.2 million barrels per day, nearly 100 per cent of the 1.2 million barrels per day in January, last year.[/size] The figure, industry source said, excluded production retained for internal refining but now battered by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) for refined products due to domestic refining capacity outage. The Minister of Petroleum Resources, Dr. Rilwan Lukman, disclosed that production increased since the third quarter of last year when the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) also posted production from all units at the same rate. Confirmation of the actual export figures as against output figures by the Central Bank of Nigeria, a source said, was being awaited to measure the actual revenue performance of the petroleum industry at the opening of the year. Revenue receipts from export of crude oil and condensate account for over 95 per cent of total foreign exchange income of the country, over 90 per cent of total revenue support to the federal budget and over significant liquidity in the internal economy. [size=14pt]Lukman said Nigeria’s oil production stabilised at 2.2 million barrels per day, attributing production recovery from the 2009 bottom below one million barrels per day due to Presidential amnesty packages for militants in the Niger Delta.[/size] http://www.compassnewspaper.com/NG/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=41269:nigerian-oil-exports-hit-22m-barrels-per-day-in-january&catid=111:energy&Itemid=712 |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 10:30pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
I really do not have time for juvenille debates. If scoring brownie points is all this is for you, I say again again, you are probably best IGNORING my posts. Any who, for those serious about this here is a way to look at this. Including a link with RILWANU LUKMAN stating oil production increased to 2.2 million per day, along with links stating there were decreases during the same period should cause one to think what really happened and how a mere 300 thousand barrel daily increase can move us to a 7.3% increase in GDP. We have CONFLICTING REPORTS FROM THE SAME PERIOD(1st quarter 2010) that there were cuts in production due to attacks and set backs. The ousted MINISTER informed us in february that oil production was up almost 100%(say about 80%) from January 2009. But there are also links up there that tell us that production during the last quarter of 2009 was already at about 1.9 million during which time we supposedly had a 6% increase in GDP. So,is it to say then that a 300K increase in daily production during the first quarter(according to RILWANU),is all that was needed to give us another increase in GDP, even higher than the increase we experienced in last quater of 2009, or quarters before that? I should also add that the housing sector, and retail were reported to have experienced a decline during the last quarter of 2009 and this decline continued into and beyond the first quarter of 2010. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 10:34pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
I really do not have time for juvenille debates. So, maybe again, you are best IGNORING my posts if you are unwilling to use your head first in this. @Kobojunkie If u dont know anything say u dont know ok. . . For the last time GDP is measured Q on Q and not sequentially. . . So u measure Q1 2010 VS Q1 2009 to figure out growth(or recession) stop telling me about the last qtr of 2009 because its not relevant to this discussion. . . . |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 10:47pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
I really do not have time for juvenille debates. So, maybe again, you are best IGNORING my posts if you are unwilling to use your head first in this. Are u a Hyperchondriac. . . or do u have attention deficit disorder. . . Arent u the one that replied to my 5day old post. . ? why didnt u take your own advice and IGNORE my post then. . . see me see wahala o. . . |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 10:49pm On Jul 19, 2010 |
Sigh Any who, for those serious about this here is a way to look at this. Including a link with RILWANU LUKMAN stating oil production increased to 2.2 million per day, along with links stating there were decreases during the same period should cause one to think what really happened and how a mere 300 thousand barrel daily increase can move us to a 7.3% increase in GDP. We have CONFLICTING REPORTS FROM THE SAME PERIOD(1st quarter 2010) that there were cuts in production due to attacks and set backs. The ousted MINISTER informed us in february that oil production was up almost 100%(say about 80%) from January 2009. But there are also links up there that tell us that production during the last quarter of 2009 was already at about 1.9 million during which time we supposedly had a 6% increase in GDP. So,is it to say then that a 300K increase in daily production during the first quarter(according to RILWANU),is all that was needed to give us another increase in GDP, even higher than the increase we experienced in last quater of 2009, or quarters before that? I should also add that the housing sector, and retail were reported to have experienced a decline during the last quarter of 2009 and this decline continued into and beyond the first quarter of 2010. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 8:21pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
This topic shld b recristend 4play vs paddylo. BTW kobojunkie, why drag urself into their econometric beaf |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 8:23pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
This topic shld b recristend 4play vs paddylo. BTW kobojunkie, why drag urself into their econometric beaf |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 8:25pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
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| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Nobody: 8:31pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
This topic shld b recristend 4play vs paddylo. BTW kobojunkie, why drag urself into their econometric beaf |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 8:32pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
lol . . . na wa oo . . when exactly was the thread signed over to them? Egos aside, some of us have real concerns about the numbers, and data that comes out of Nigeria. . . we would like to understand how reality exactly matches the stats thrown at us. You get contradicting information, that is bound to raise questions and that is what this was initially about . |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 9:13pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
Kobojunkie: The articles do not repudiate the fact that oil production is significantly higher than it was at the same time in 2009. Secondly, increased oil receipts generally leads to increased government expenditure which has it's own knock on effects on GDP.
Oil alone did not result in the increase that is for sure; however if non-oil exports have risen as well as the NBS suggests, then both factors could have led to the marked increase in growth, even in the face of the other negative indices. One more thing to note - the increase over Q1 2008 is NOT 7.3%; Q1 2008 growth was 4.5%, so the real GDP change reported was 2.73% |
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