Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned - Politics (4) - Nairaland
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| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Ibime(m): 9:26pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
Fact remains that nominal GDP was not higher than inflation, so whilst the economy grew, in real terms we are worse off than last year. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 9:30pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
Looking closely at the NBS figures, the following growth figures were posited Oil GDP growth: 1Q 2008 -8.08% 1Q 2008 3.21% Telecomms: 1Q 2008 growth rate: 31.75% 1Q 2009 growth rate: 32.54% Financial Services, Manufacturing and others were deemed to have fallen, while other sectors recorded significant rises. According to the NBS statistics, growth in Agriculture, Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Wholesale & Retail Trade were the major contributors to the growth. http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ext/latest_release/GDP_Q12010.pdf A quick perusal of the report does not show any material misstatement by the NBS. Ibime: That is an insightful comment, which might explain the reason why this measure of growth doesn't necessarily mean things have improved on the ground. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 9:47pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
The report by the National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) that the economy grew by 7.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010 is raising eyebrows among experts who say it is illogical for the economy to have grown by such magnitude when key components that drive the economy are looking downward. One more thing to note - the increase over Q1 2008 is NOT 7.3%; Q1 2008 growth was 4.5%, so the real GDP change reported was 2.73% From the link you have in there, real GDP grew by 7.23 % in first quarter of 2010. On an aggregate basis, the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 7.23 percent in the first quarter of 2010 as against 4.50 percent in the corresponding quarter of[b] the previous year [/b] as shown in Figure 1. The 2.73 percentage point increase in Real GDP growth observed in the first quarter of 2010 was accounted for by the increase in production in the oil sector of the economy. The nominal GDP for the first quarter of 2010 was estimated at 6,399,716.09 million naira as against the 5,404,850.00 million naira during the corresponding quarter of 2009, thus, indicating an increase of 994,866.09 million naira. I did state that there was definitely an increase, only was the increase enough to get us to a 7.3%, when other sectors were flat/in the negative during the same period. Any idea how much of an increase there was in government expenditure given that first quarter 2010, the country as a whole was in political turmoil and we didn't really get things stable until late march, early april. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Ibime(m): 11:24pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
Hold up. . . is the 7% Real GDP growth or nominal GDP growth? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 11:51pm On Jul 20, 2010 |
Oil Sector The Oil sector contributed about 18.70 percent to real GDP in the first quarter 2009, while the contribution in first quarter of 2010 was however 18.00 percent.
The Oil sector in Q1 2009 at 1.85 million barrels per day, coupled with 7.90 percent growth in non-oil sectors gave us a lower GDP compare to what we got from the 2010's Q1 oil at 2.25 million barrels a day average, and a decline in growth in other sectors? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 2:13am On Jul 21, 2010 |
Hold up. . . is the 7% Real GDP growth or nominal GDP growth? Its real GDP growth. . .anyway check out the article below that came out tonite. . a lot of u cats dont want to believe growth is picking up steam,but the numbers are pointing to solid recovery [size=14pt]Experts attribute UBA’s 6,297% surge in post-tax profit to growing lending[/size] WEDNESDAY, 21 JULY 2010 … Lends N713.61bn to economy [size=13pt]The United Bank for Africa is expected to announce a steep 6,297 percent growth in profit after tax due to increased lending by the bank in recent times, analysts close to the Africa’s leading financial institution told BusinessDay. The bank’s profit after tax rose from a mere N0.1 billion during the first six months of the 2009 financial year to N8.6 billion in the corresponding period of 2010. “The economic situation in the industry is improving and lending portfolio is gradually growing”,[/size] said one of the experts. The growth is in spite of the fact that gross earning for the period dropped from N109 billion in 2009 to N93.7 billion in 2010, a 14 percent decline. Pre-tax profit, however, grew as a result of increased lending activities by 370 percent from N2.6 billion in 2009 to N12.2 billion in 2010. But profit after tax rose stupendously by 6,297 percent during the period as a result of a slow down in provisioning in 2010. In 2009, the level of provisioning was N2.4 billion against a lean profit of N2.5 billion, where as provisioning or what the bank termed exceptional item was N3.5 billion compared with a profit before tax of N12.2 billion in 2010. Analysts told BusinessDay that total lending during the period in 2010 is N713.61 billion. According to them, of the amount, N141.54 billion or 19.8 percent was given to the oil and gas sector. What the bank referred to as personal and professionals got N121.17 billion or 17 percent of the amount that went for lending during the period. Financial institutions got N104.79 billion or 14.7 percent, telecoms got N60.83 billion or 8.5 percent, among others. Experts say the achievement is spectacular in the face of the factors that militated against such growth during the period. For instance, they say the excessive liquidity in the system during the period, particularly this year led to very low rates on securities. Bonds fell from between nine and 11 percent to between 3.5 percent and 8.6 percent. Treasury bills also fell from between five and seven percent to 2.6 percent and 3.9 percent, while inter-bank fell from more than 18 percent to between one and two percent (for overnight), among others. Also, restructured loans were running at much lower interest rates than originally thought, and in some cases at zero percent, while write off of loans, and reserves against non-performing loans had their negative impacts on growth, among others. http://www.businessdayonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12938:experts-attribute-ubas-6297-surge-in-post-tax-profit-to-growing-lending&catid=85:national&Itemid=340 |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 12:01pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
Kobojunkie: Non oil sectors comprise a number of things - the telecommunications sector grew by over 32.54%, agriculture grew by 5.48%. Those two sectors added to the oil sector make the growth rate recorded plausible. Non oil grew by 7.90% as a WHOLE - this factors in the decreases in financial services, wholesale and retail, as well as the increases in telecomms and agriculture. Coupling this with the >8% growth in oil, the growth rate expressed is quite reasonable. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 12:53pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
debosky: Did you read the article at the link you posted? If you could do away with the lectures for two seconds and actually consider the data from that link alone, with what we have come to know to be the case from other reports, that would probably help this. You recorded earlier that Real GDP was around 2.3 but the article claims it is 7.3%. You agreed earlier that other sectors were flat in first quarter 2010, how now did these same grow by > 8% combined in the same period? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 12:54pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
Yes I did - the information in my previous post is from the NBS report. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 12:58pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
And the information on the Real GDP being 7.3% is from the same NBS article. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by debosky(m): 8:45pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
Kobojunkie: Ok - going by the analysis in the report, do you regard the growth estimate as plausible or not? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 9:05pm On Jul 21, 2010 |
debosky: I am having a hard time believing those numbers are plausible. . . and I am just a layman speaking here. Examining the graphs presented in the report . . page 13, first on 14, Page 15, and then considering the information presented in the article on the situation in the country during those periods, I question the growth. Now, given the reality in the country(political turmoil, the banks needing bailout, global recession etc) during the same periods, I cannot but wonder where exactly the numbers came from. It is sort of like Ford requiring bailout money from government during the first quarter of 2009,cutting down production in many areas, closing down some branches and still claiming to record growth, and huge profits in the same period. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by paddylo1(m): 12:32am On Jul 22, 2010 |
Now, given the reality in the country(political turmoil, the banks needing bailout, global recession etc) [b]Another fallacy by u. . .u do like to live in fantasy land dont u. . .Now here are the facts below [size=14pt]Global recession[/size]. . .The world exited recession in [size=14pt]july 2009[/size] copper prices(proxy for world growth),tripled from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 Oil prices doubled(another proxy for growth),doubled from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010(from lows of $40 to avg of $70 in the first 3 months of this yr) Note that this increase in price will affect the value of Nigerias oil output,much more than increase in production So you keep hashing this global recession meme of yours when the IMF has pushed up growth this yr to 4.7% is kinda ridiculous and in case u hadnt noticed,this year comprises jan - march 2010, [size=14pt]Bank Bailout[/size]. . .Another fallacy,the bailout occurred in august of 2009. . . By the first qtr of 2010,most banks,even those that were bailed out were reporting profit for Q1 2010 And the half yr report for those that have released them show rapid profit and credit growth [size=14pt]Political turmoil[/size]. . . .U just cant scream political turmoil without providing a link to suggest it dampened growth The Nigerian stock exchange(proxy for economic activity),was up 26% in the first 3 months of this yr effectively ignoring the yaradua saga Something else to note Thailand that arguably had worse political turmoil than us,had 6% growth in their first qtr. . . and Nigerian GDP growth in the terrible yr of 2009(world was in recession for 6months),was about 5.7% pls see IMF data below for select countries including Nigeria. . . .[/b] [url]http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2000&ey=2010&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=31&pr1.y=7&c=694%2C576%2C199%2C578%2C536&s=NGDP_RPCH%2CNGDPD&grp=0&a=[/url] |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 5:18am On Nov 17, 2011 |
Here we need to go back and look at the numbers. Something stinks with at NBS. |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 3:28pm On Nov 17, 2011 |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nigeria Statistics |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 3:31pm On Nov 17, 2011 |
Kobojunkie why u wan resurrect this thread na  |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 4:01pm On Nov 17, 2011 |
Why not? Do we not need to keep up with developments to be sure we are not being hoodwinked? Why create thousands of threads on the same issue, every other month when you can have the one to go back to whenever we need to discuss something similar? |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by chamber2(m): 4:08pm On Nov 17, 2011 |
^^^^ Exactly. Just surprised at the level of determination shown by you to demonstrate that the stat was cooked up. However, what recent event(s) do we have now to support your claim that the stat was unrealistic? Though, i share your sentiment on this issue |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 4:16pm On Nov 17, 2011 |
According to the CIA facts book on Nigeria, unemployment rate in the country was set at 4.9% in 2007. Today, the NBS(National Bureau of Statistics) which had initially reported unemployment rate to have been at about 19.7% in 2010. This despite the fact that we had been reporting growth(significant growth in the nations economy) from the second quarters of 2009. Now, this same growth (7% average) has continued till this quarter. Yet, unemployed has risen from about 4.9% in 2007, to about 19.7% in 2010, and is now up to about 24%? Essentially, while we have been recording serious growth, unemployment has been on the rise, even though over 80% of our economy is framed by such sectors as Agriculture, industry, etc. Even the NBS does not allude to Agriculture being more mechanical than it used to be, yet it boldly claims that the sector contributes over 40% to our GDP, each quarter. I cannot help but wonder where the heck these farmers live and how they are not hiring, with all that growth to maintain.  Reference https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html |
| Re: Fg’s 7% Growth Report Questioned by Kobojunkie: 11:58am On Dec 07, 2011 |
hmm  |
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