I do not think the tribune article helps much because it focuses on the strength of the parties in the governorship elections. Buhari is going to outperform the other candidates in his party. Unfortunately many CPC candidates are little known underfunded candidates who are banking on riding Buhari's coat tails to victory. Many states in the North will vote PDP or ANPP for governor but vote Buhari for President. We need a state by state analysis of the strength of each party's presidential candidates in all the states. That will be more helpful.

GenBuhari,

How many times am I going to tell you that the 2003 election was used to measure Buhari's support in the North.  Buhari won ten states in 2003 in the North.  He won some of them by landslides (Kastina 76%, Zamfara 80%, Kano 75%, Jigawa 80%, Sokoto 73%, Kebbi 65%, Borno 65%, Bauchi 62%, Yobe 64%, Gombe 53%).  He lost the middle-belt but still got between 30-40% in all the middle belt states.  In a three way race 30-40% in the middle belt makes him competitive there.  Dude I tried to be fair and objective here.  Also the model allows you to make adjustments if you do not agree with the assumptions I made and post it for all to see.  Or do you expect Buhari to get 99% in the NW and NE?  Let us analyze things objectively.

@ danjohn,

I suggest you don't bother much about Gen[b]Buhari[/b]'s complaints because he has an interest here. The only way he will accept your model is if you report one where his candidate has 150% in NE, 200% in NW, 90% in NC, 90% in SW, 80% in SS and 80% in SE. Anything less is unacceptable to him. You also have to make sure GEJ doesnt get any vote in the model. He will not mind if ACN gets the remnant.

Alora, do you know where we can get the detailed INEC list of all the candidates and parties presented for the elections? (on state by state basis).

^^^Try the Daily Trust website: There's a link there "Verdict 2011"

efisher:

I suggest you don't bother much about Gen[b]Buhari[/b]'s complaints because he has an interest here.

GenBuhari has previously accused danjohn (a fellow pro-Buharite himself) of working for PDP simply because danjohn's model did not accord with his expectations.

@danjohn
I believe if not for rigging, Buhari would have won in 2003. he would have got minimum70% in all Northern states.

With out rigging Buhari would have won the middle belts also understand ?

without rigging Buhari woud have beaten ObJ in the SE and shared the votes with OBJ in the SW

danjohn:

GenBuhari,

How many times am I going to tell you that the 2003 election was used to measure Buhari's support in the North. Buhari won ten states in 2003 in the North. He won some of them by landslides (Kastina 76%, Zamfara 80%, Kano 75%, Jigawa 80%, Sokoto 73%, Kebbi 65%, Borno 65%, Bauchi 62%, Yobe 64%, Gombe 53%). He lost the middle-belt but still got between 30-40% in all the middle belt states. In a three way race 30-40% in the middle belt makes him competitive there. Dude I tried to be fair and objective here. Also the model allows you to make adjustments if you do not agree with the assumptions I made and post it for all to see. Or do you expect Buhari to get 99% in the NW and NE? Let us analyze things objectively.

@danjohn
I believe if not for rigging,  Buhari would have won in 2003. he would have got minimum70% in all Northern states.

With out rigging Buhari would have won the middle belts also understand ?

without rigging Buhari woud have beaten ObJ in the SE and shared the votes with OBJ in the SW

danjohn:

GenBuhari,

How many times am I going to tell you that the 2003 election was used to measure Buhari's support in the North.  Buhari won ten states in 2003 in the North.  He won some of them by landslides (Kastina 76%, Zamfara 80%, Kano 75%, Jigawa 80%, Sokoto 73%, Kebbi 65%, Borno 65%, Bauchi 62%, Yobe 64%, Gombe 53%).  He lost the middle-belt but still got between 30-40% in all the middle belt states.  In a three way race 30-40% in the middle belt makes him competitive there.  Dude I tried to be fair and objective here.  Also the model allows you to make adjustments if you do not agree with the assumptions I made and post it for all to see.  Or do you expect Buhari to get 99% in the NW and NE?  Let us analyze things objectively.  

^^The thing pain you sotay you had to post it twice. Just to prove to you that you are just arguing based on emotions and not reality.

GenBuhari:

he would have got minimum70% in all Northern states.

What was Buhari's percentage of votes in the Northwest. Look at the attached pictures and tell us.

GenBuhari:

With out rigging Buhari would have won the middle belts also understand ?

Na here I know say, you just dey UK dey propound theory. I work in Jos, Plateau State. I 've been there for upward of 20 years from secondary school through university and postgraduate school. Buhari cannot win in Plateau State today talkless of in 2003. If you doubt me pick your phone and call anyone you know living in Jos. Jos is the capital of the Middle-Belt which is predominantly Christian and there was no way they were going to vote for Buhari especially after the Sharia controversy.

GenBuhari:

without rigging Buhari woud have beaten ObJ in the SE and shared the votes with OBJ in the SW

Buhari beat OBJ in the SE? Don't even go there. It is clear that you actually know little about what is on ground in Nigeria, and how the average Igbo perceive Buhari.. Don't allow the noise on the internet confuse you.

Any analysis based on 1999/2003/2007 is wrong. We have a very different situation to deal with this time around and we have different forces at play here.

- Zoning in the north
- perversive corruption in the government is swinging polical alliance in the south.

The above two factors has added tremendously to the popularity of Buhari and will have unbelievable impact on the outcome of this year's election.

Never before has Buhari been widely accepted even in the south. As the day draws closer and people have time to think about the election, you will see how things have changed in favor of Buhari in the South.

Wadeoye:

- Zoning in the north

Which North? Do you know the difference between {Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Northern Kaduna} and {Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Southern Kaduna}? Please don't be offended but have you ever traveled out of Lagos to these states and interacted with the people there to see their outlook on this issue of "zoning"?

aletheia:

Which North? Do you know the difference between {Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Northern Kaduna} and {Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Southern Kaduna}? Please don't be offended but have you ever traveled out of Lagos to these states and interacted with the people there to see their outlook on this issue of "zoning"?

And what is their outlook if I may ask?

^^I am not in a position to objectively talk about other Middle-Belt states, but for Plateau; I definitely know that Buhari will lose in the state. Even the incumbent governor's main challenger is pro-GEJ.  CPC's support base is largely restricted to Jos North LGA.

P.S. Just to add that most people in the Middle-Belt perceive "zoning" as an excuse for imposing Hausa-Fulani/Islamic hegemony and they are very wary of such talk. What a lot of people south of the Niger-Benue don't understand is that the Middle-Belt minorities still remember their history of resisting Dan Fodio's Jihad. . .and this history still resonates strongly in states like Plateau and Adamawa.

Buhari has been to virtually all the states in the so called Middle-Belt and we could see the love they have for Buhari - while GEJ was stoned in Nasarawa, Buhari visit was like a street carnival across the state. Buhari has been to Benue - again we could see the turnout. He was in plateau and despite intimidation from the government and police, people still trooped out to welcome Buhari.

So, don't let anybody deceive you. Yes, the middle-belt minorities may have a different reason other than zoning. Of course, everybody wants good and responsible leadership.

^^^You were in Plateau for just one day, not so? Where? Polo field. Where is Polo field? Jos North LGA. One the basis of that single passing through visit, you conclude your candidate has state-wide support. Ok. I leave you to your fantasies. April's in a few days. You can come back then and tell me that Buhari won in Plateau state.

Meanwhile keep your eye on the April 2 elections, it will give you a pointer to the strength of CPC in Plateau state. BTW I hope you know your party is fielding only 4 candidates in the 8 Federal constituencies in Plateau State. A party that according to you is strong in Plateau state can only manage to present candidates in just half of the Federal constituencies in a state. I am sure the picture is even worse in the SW, SE and SS.

Fellow modellers ,

I wish to refer to this comment I made a few days before the election.

efisher:

I think the election process itself will create some problems. Let me explain,

The procedure is to accredit voters from 8.am. to noon after which no other voter will be accredited. If this is the case, we will inevitably record very low turn out in centres where the officials are less efficient. The situation will be such that centres with lots of voters will have risk of people getting automatically disenfranchised. The registration process took several weeks to conduct. Now, we have just a few hours. In addition, logistics problems and several other things may eat into the accreditation time. In effect, we may have several states recording about 50% turnout

This will have a huge effect on the election results if not properly controlled.

In light of current events, should we begin to expect lower turnout than initially postulated?

^^For the parliamentary elections (there was a substantial turnout today). If that goes without a hitch, then much higher turnout for the Presidential elections.

What happened may even have positive effect in the sense that INEC will have to sit up. Lets see what the turnout will be like.

From the results of parliamentary election so far, it looks like the Ribadu votes may be higher than estimated in Lagos. The Lagosians are so much in love with ACN.

Lets try to adjust our models along the lines of the results of the Parliamentary elections. 

^^Not necessarily. These were the parliamentary elections, where local factors are often in play. A vote for ACN today in Lagos does not necessarily translate to a vote for Ribadu next Saturday. Having said that; I 'm waiting for the full results; I 'm hoping they will include the vote counts as this will give a fair representation of the proportion of votes for each party. Just doing a simple count of constituencies won and lost will lead to less accurate projections for the presidential elections.

Yes, the local factors are very strong unlike in the presidential. Looking back at your model, I see you have even given the whole of SW including Lagos to ACN. Great job.

Question: Talking about majority of votes cast, does the winner need to have over 50% of votes to win in the first ballot. Or just majority even if it is less than 50%?

efisher:

Yes, the local factors are very strong unlike in the presidential. Looking back at your model, I see you have even given the whole of SW including Lagos to ACN. Great job.

Question: Talking about majority of votes cast, does the winner need to have over 50% of votes to win in the first ballot. Or just majority even if it is less than 50%?

You need a simple majority and 25% in 24 states. A simple majority can be less than 50%. I think that ACN will do well today. CPC will not do as well today, but will do better next week because Buhari will be on the ballot. PDP will perform better in the north today than they will next week. In the SW they will perform better next week than they will today.

Ok Thanks. I just modelled a very tight scenario where the final result had the winner at 43% of votes. It will be a very close call but the odds still favor GEJ a lot. From today, it will be tough for CPC to get votes from SW states. CPC will so clear the North as expected.

^^The party losing most in these elections will be the ANPP. CPC is probably going to replace them in the states they already control except perhaps for Borno.

efisher:

Ok Thanks. I just modelled a very tight scenario where the final result had the winner at 43% of votes. It will be a very close call but the odds still favor GEJ a lot. From today, it will be tough for CPC to get votes from SW states. CPC will so clear the North as expected.

In 2003 and 2007, PDP's chance of winning the presidential election was 100%. This time, their chance of winning is not 100%. Jonathan is still the frontrunner but victory is not yet guaranteed. The constitution says that a runoff must happen in 7 days. I hope INEC had made plans for such a scenario.

@aletheia, Yeah, I noticed. CPC is fast alienating ANPP.  

@danjohn, you are right. The chances of PDP winning is more like 60% ^{(quite conservative)} if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. CPC has a 40% chance of causing a runoff if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. ACN chance of winning is 0% but if Buhari steps down (very unlikely), the chances may rise to 30%.

Also, it is clearer that the best CPC can get in the first ballot is a runoff. They simply do not have the needed spread in the south.

danjohn:

In 2003 and 2007, PDP's chance of winning the presidential election was 100%. This time, their chance of winning is not 100%. Jonathan is still the frontrunner but victory is not yet guaranteed. The constitution says that a runoff must happen in 7 days. I hope INEC had made plans for such a scenario.

Of course INEC is prepared in case of any runoff. Didn't you hear they printed the ballots for the run-off before the ones for the actual Presidential elections?

efisher:

@danjohn, you are right. The chances of PDP winning is more like 60% ^{(quite conservative)} if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. CPC has a 40% chance of causing a runoff if no alliance and 50% if there is an alliance. ACN chance of winning is 0% but if Buhari steps down (very unlikely), the chances may rise to 30%.

^I just finished having a conversation with one pro-Buhari guy who became quite rude; when I did not agree with him that a runoff was possible. Most of them are are just being sentimental without considering that 73 million votes can only be divided in so many ways.
I ran my model again; this time giving ACN 80% of the votes in the SW and splitting the balance 50:50 between PDP and CPC (in order words; PDP scores less than 25% in all the SW states). Guess what? Let the screenshot do the talking. . .

^ That was almost the exact same result I got. 

ACN needs to make a very strong statement with their votes even if they do not win. They need to hold tight to their votes to show their strength and set the stage for a takeover in 2015. GEJ will do better than today but I do not think his SW votes will go far beyond 50% if there is an alliance.

What I did was to use a turnout of 65% in SE + 75% in SS and 90% turnout in NE+NW. I still got a similar result.

To me, the results for SE, SS and NW may not vary much from expectation.
The battle grounds are SW, NE and NC. These are the regions that will determine the margin. Any last minute surprises can shake the results.

ajiifixing:

Where is BEAF AND HIS ILKS ?

That is true. Where is Beaf?

NE is solidy Buhari, no? When did it become a battle ground?

ekt_bear:

NE is solidy Buhari, no? When did it become a battle ground?

I added NE to battle grounds because I cannot tell exactly how much GEJ may be able to get from there. In NW, I have judiciously given BB 90% in his key states and 65% in places like Kano. Any less vote BB gets is to GEJ's advantage. I cannot assume same for NE.

Secondly, I assume GEJ's SE+SS will cancel out with Buhari's NW votes.

My aim is to push GEJ's chances to the wall and see what happens.

ekt_bear:

NE is solidy Buhari, no? When did it become a battle ground?

^Because the NE is not as homogenous as the NW. Whether we like it or not; ethnic and historical factors come into play. The "Hausa-Fulani" are a minority in the NE. Adamawa & Taraba States are actually counted as Middle-Belt (which includes parts of Kebbi State, Southern Kaduna, Southern Bauchi, parts of Gombe state).

If you can lay your hand on a copy of the Willinks committee report on minorities: you will find their grievances documented. This has become more pronounced over the years and is now a simmering resentment of Hausa-Fulani political hegemony especially in the light of recurrent religious violence that also targets these Middle-Belt minorities. These sentiments are actually working against Buhari in these places. A lot of Nigerians outside these zones (in NW and South) tend to think these Middle-Belt minorities will follow the NW lead. Not anymore because of:
1) The Sharia controversy which makes the Middle-Belt Christians feel threatened;
2) The hypocritical outcry of "Northern marginalization" during OBJ first administration. The cry of "zoning" is just another twist on that well worked formula.

I work in Jos: and I can tell you that there is such a deep distrust of the Hausa-Fulani when it comes to politics (based on their history of resisting the Fulani Jihad of Dan Fodio---same with the people of Numan in Adamawa state). I don't think you are aware that the people of Plateau state did not vote for NPC (Ahmadu Bello's party) in the 1960s; did not vote NPN in the 80s; did not vote NRC in 1993. Do you begin to see the pattern?