^-- Interesting. Willinks report here: http://www.adakaboro.org/thewillinkcomm

I'll read it later when I have time.

Do you agree with that map posted earlier of Hausaland by the BBC? Is it largely accurate? States like Adamawa. . . the elected leaders are always Fulani, but I don't think demographically the Fulani there are anywhere near a majority.

Anyway, interesting.

^^The Fulani are a minority there. Adamawa has had a non-Fulani governor in the person of Boni Haruna. The Military Regimes that ruled Nigeria from 84-99 seriously distorted the structure of Nigeria in a bid to impose Hausa-Fulani hegemony. The strategy has always been to seed the Middle-Belt with Hausa-Fulani enclaves and then appoint an Emir there as a means to consolidating political power. For example consider the case of Lafia in Nasarawa which was carved out from Plateau state. The state is majority non-Hausa, but we see the governors always being from that tribe. When Nasarawa was created; hundreds of Hausa people were bused into Lafia and settled there. In the case of Plateau state for example; Jos North was gerrymandered by Babangida and Abacha to try and produce a Hausa majority in the Birom/Afizere/Anaguta heartland whereas the indigenous people actually requested for Fadare LGA. In Yobe state; Fika (the hometown of Ciroma) is actually barely more than a large village but it has an Emir because it is a Fulani settlement (Remember Yobe state is economically unviable and was carved out of Borno state).

The truth is that a free-and-fair election in which our votes count will destroy once and for all the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy's dominance of Nigerian politics (even in the first republic with a monolithic NPC; they could not muster a majority in parliament without the help of the NCNC and other small parties). This was partly why the June 12 election was annulled. This is also why the Northern oligarch's are agitated over "zoning" because it guarantees them a shot at power.

I repeat: those who think Buhari will outperform GEJ in the Middle-Belt states are sadly mistaken. Did you know that all three leading candidates for governor in Plateau state; PDP, Labor Party and ANPP endorsed GEJ for president?

P.S. The BBC map is grossly inaccurate: it doesn't show the other northern tribes, for example the Kataf people of Southern Kaduna. On the basis of what does it show a pocket of Hausa around Abuja?

I have pushed GEJ into the wall and he still has the margin!!!

The SW is a very strong region! If SW gives GEJ good support, the margin will be soooo wide!

@aletheia: Pretty interesting stuff, a lot I didn't know. Thanks!

ekt_bear:

@aletheia: Pretty interesting stuff, a lot I didn't know. Thanks!

^You are welcome. Also study the Dimka coup against Mohammed. A lot of Middle-Belt officers were executed on allegations of been involved in that coup. A lot of them were felt to have been framed up to appease the aggrieved NW. The late J.D. Gomwalk, who was quite popular with his people was killed then. This only helped to fuel the resentment of Hausa-Fulani in Plateau state.

Also get a copy of the Gideon Orkar coup speech of April 22, 1990. Those sentiments expressed therein are still prevalent today. Hope you realize that majority of the army officers involved in the Orkar coup were from the Middle-belt and South-south?

aletheia:

^^The Fulani are a minority there. Adamawa has had a non-Fulani governor in the person of Boni Haruna. The Military Regimes that ruled Nigeria from 84-99 seriously distorted the structure of Nigeria in a bid to impose Hausa-Fulani hegemony. The strategy has always been to seed the Middle-Belt with Hausa-Fulani enclaves and then appoint an Emir there as a means to consolidating political power. For example consider the case of Lafia in Nasarawa which was carved out from Plateau state. The state is majority non-Hausa, but we see the governors always being from that tribe. When Nasarawa was created; hundreds of Hausa people were bused into Lafia and settled there. In the case of Plateau state for example; Jos North was gerrymandered by Babangida and Abacha to try and produce a Hausa majority in the Birom/Afizere/Anaguta heartland whereas the indigenous people actually requested for Fadare LGA. In Yobe state; Fika (the hometown of Ciroma) is actually barely more than a large village but it has an Emir because it is a Fulani settlement (Remember Yobe state is economically unviable and was carved out of Borno state).

man, you are quite selective in your tory tory, as Atiku was suppose to be the governor of Adama but was selected by obj t be his vice, furthermore, Boni Haruna became the gov. based on the suppport of atiku, Again your lies failed to tell you that Fulani dominance in the middle belt has been before the emergence of Nigeria, only fools will believe this tracherous lies that you claimed that the military imposed emirs on the middle belt, i believe you should not sink that low to prove things, we are not on mount zion you know? the emirate in Adamawa for instance has existed right from 1809, so please you should not reduce yourself into a devious lir because you want mount zion in Aso Rock. at the end of the day only a Nigerian can occupy the presidency. the bolded part of your statement hardly made sense. as for Fika being a village you are missing facts

aletheia:

The truth is that a free-and-fair election in which our votes count will destroy once and for all the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy's dominance of Nigerian politics (even in the first republic with a monolithic NPC; they could not muster a majority in parliament without the help of the NCNC and other small parties). This was partly why the June 12 election was annulled. This is also why the Northern oligarch's are agitated over "zoning" because it guarantees them a shot at power.

Do you know Fulani and Hausas actually voted for Abiola? Why are you so keeen in stocking hatred towards them, or do you think your elite of whatever tribe you come from are any better? the same zoning that helped GEJ become VP is what you say guarantees the largest tribe in Nigeria a shot at the presidency, please you can think better than that, Zoning protects minority more than the majority, and when someone insist on an agreement you say because it guarantees them a shot I dey laugh even oBJ still insist on zoning.

aletheia:

I repeat: those who think Buhari will outperform GEJ in the Middle-Belt states are sadly mistaken. Did you know that all three leading candidates for governor in Plateau state; PDP, Labor Party and ANPP endorsed GEJ for president?

you fail to see he role religion will play in the middle belt, Plateau state does have such a big population, i think by last census it was around 2m, crying over plateau only shows your weak understanding of politics, For instance Niger is in the MB yet there is great likely hood they will not vote GEJ, Even Nassarawa might fall to CPC, so there is still a great possibility that every thing might fall out of place for PDP. To crown it all as long as the SW votes ACN for the Presidency then the chance of GEJ winning outright or even in the first round remains slime, as the NW will go CPC, NE -CPC, NC divided, SS-PDP, SE -PDP -it is becoming doubtful as Ibos are becoming weary of GEJ.

^^One of you was bound to turn up sooner or later:

vedaxcool:

man, you are quite selective in your tory tory, as Atiku was suppose to be the governor of Adama but was selected by obj t be his vice, furthermore, Boni Haruna  became the gov.

How does this contradict what I wrote:

aletheia:

^^The Fulani are a minority there. Adamawa has had a non-Fulani governor in the person of Boni Haruna.

Stop being silly. Really. And stop seeing everything through your ethno-religious prism.

vedaxcool:

you fail to see he role religion will play in the middle belt

^^Is what you wrote here different from this:

aletheia:

^Because the NE is not as homogenous as the NW. Whether we like it or not; ethnic and historical factors come into play.

A lot of you guys from outside the Middle-Belt (whether the core North or the South) don't know the local history or attitudes or perceptions of the people there. If you have a Tiv friend from Benue; ask him how Tiv people see the Hausa. For example; one of the biggest insults a Tiv man can tell another Tiv man is that he washes his anus with water after defecating. Historical, ethnic and religious considerations will come into play in the Middle-Belt. You pretend as if religious considerations do not underlie Buhari's support in the NW.

Plateau state has 2,259,194 potential voters, Benue state has 2,390,884 potential voters. Do you actually believe that Buhari will win the majority of votes in these two states?

vedaxcool:

. . .the same zoning that helped GEJ become VP is what you say guarantees the largest tribe in Nigeria a shot at the presidency, please you can think better than that, Zoning protects minority more than the majority, and when someone insist on an agreement you say because it guarantees them a shot I dey laugh even oBJ still insist on zoning.

^^Really. Emotional arguments do not stand up to scrutiny.
1) The "largest" tribe in Nigeria is less than 30% of the total Nigerian population. If the other 2 major tribes and the minorities form a political alliance, they would be shut out from power. Ahmadu Bello understood this; which was why he assiduously courted Zik; and worked hard at preventing a Yoruba-Igbo alliance in the first republic. A case of the largest tribe being shut out from power is seen in Kenya where the majority Kikuyu tribe were locked out of power until recently by a coalition of the smaller tribes.
2) History demolishes your argument; study the voting patterns of the first and second republics e.g NPN won the 1979 election with just 32.7% of the total votes cast. If it was a two party system like in 1993; where do you think the balance of 67.3% would have gone? Just exactly what happened in 1993. Yes Abiola won in Kano but Kano also has a lot of non-Hausa living there. In 1959 because of the skewed way parliamentary districts were drawn up by the British: the NPC had 134 seats despite polling just 25.2% of the popular vote compared to the NCNC that had 81 seats with 34% of the votes and the Action Group with 26.1% had 73 seats.
It is just this sort of aberration and inequity in which a party that polled the least number of votes ends up having the largest number of seats in parliament that "zoning" seeks to preserve. Such aberration is what breeds distrust.

A free and fair election in Nigeria in which anyone is free to vie for the highest office in the land without recourse to the rubbish doctrine of zoning is what Nigeria needs.

^ Zoning is a very delicate issue. Within the party, it is a way to keep the sanity of members in tact. This is because, tribalism and religion are very strong factors in Nigerian politics. PDP for example may have had an easier ride if it stuck with the zoning arrangement for 2011 (but not with people like Atiku). However, outside the party, zoning breaks down completely. That's the limit. It cannot be controlled or enforced.

@ aletheia, when the results are completely out, we could try summing total votes for each party and comparing figures and spread.

PDP has so far competed well in all the geopolitical zones in terms of total votes cast. That sends a message about the party's spread.

efisher:

@ aletheia, when the results are completely out, we could try summing total votes for each party and comparing figures and spread.

PDP has so far competed well in all the geopolitical zones in terms of total votes cast. That sends a message about the party's spread.

I will be glad to see that!! It will; give a clearer picture of the national strength of the parties. Might be time consuming, but will be very worth the while! Would be well appreciated!

aletheia:

^^One of you was bound to turn up sooner or later:How does this contradict what I wrote:Stop being silly. Really. And stop seeing everything through your ethno-religious prism.

Look at the person that was heaping lies upon lies on Hausa people trying to  all his possible best to make them look like the devil going even as far as claiming that the emirs in the middle belt were imposed by the military, you are in fact the one that has allowed christian Extremism from letting your faculty think properly, as you deliberateely quoted my statement to support you mediocre understanding of politics, yet my statement alluded to the fact that Boni Haruna became gorvernor based on the suport he got from Atiku a fulani man, yet you blindly let extremism cover that part of the statement from you

aletheia:

^^Is what you wrote here different from this:
A lot of you guys from outside the Middle-Belt (whether the core North or the South) don't know the local history or attitudes or perceptions of the people there. If you have a Tiv friend from Benue; ask him how Tiv people see the Hausa. For example; one of the biggest insults a Tiv man can tell another Tiv man is that he washes his anus with water after defecating. Historical, ethnic and religious considerations will come into play in the Middle-Belt. You pretend as if religious considerations do not underlie Buhari's support in the NW.

Again an entirely idiotic an senseless write up, sorry to be too honest as my claims are very simple the MB is neither homogeneous and hence for any body to claim that all votes from the MB will go to GEJ is just thinking with his anus as it is a very much open contest, again your blind fanatical hold on ethno religious bigotry should have let you know that historically the MB has more often cooperated with the Core north, to start pointing at ethnic stereotyping which is all over the country is evidently myopic, as Igbos and Ijaws do have a history, to claim that will prevent an igbo man from voting GEJ will seem strange today, in fact Ijaws and other SS minorties view the northern establishment as saving them from Igbos, so just stop living in the past we can all point at the past and claim it explains today event.

aletheia:

Plateau state has 2,259,194 potential voters, Benue state has 2,390,884 potential voters. Do you actually believe that Buhari will win the majority of votes in these two states?

Quite funny, i did nt know there were only two states in the NC.

aletheia:

^^Really. Emotional arguments do not stand up to scrutiny.
1) The "largest" tribe in Nigeria is less than 30% of the total Nigerian population. If the other 2 major tribes and the minorities form a political alliance, they would be shut out from power. Ahmadu Bello understood this; which was why he assiduously courted Zik; and worked hard at preventing a Yoruba-Igbo alliance in the first republic. A case of the largest tribe being shut out from power is seen in Kenya where the majority Kikuyu tribe were locked out of power until recently by a coalition of the smaller tribes.

if it were that easy I tell you even a goat will becaome president but that you can not comprehend simple facts is mind boggling, the fact i pointed is that why would a majority tribe be scared of the abolition of zoning compared to the minorities which it tend to favour more compared to the minority, and your lame arguement failed to mention for the 2 other tribes and the minorities to form a coalition lots of zoning will occur in order to keep this grand coalition together but i guess you live in fairytale land to be able to know this simple logics.

aletheia:

2) History demolishes your argument; study the voting patterns of the first and second republics e.g NPN won the 1979 election with just 32.7% of the total votes cast. If it was a two party system like in 1993; where do you think the balance of 67.3% would have gone? Just exactly what happened in 1993. Yes Abiola won in Kano but Kano also has a lot of non-Hausa living there. In 1959 because of the skewed way parliamentary districts were drawn up by the British: the NPC had 134 seats despite polling just 25.2% of the popular vote compared to the NCNC that had 81 seats with 34% of the votes and the Action Group with 26.1% had 73 seats.

It seems you lack understanding of basic english as I am saying what will make an otherwise large tribe to be afraid of abolishing zoning, pointing to the fact that Kano voted A yoruba man instead of their own proves what exactly? Zik would have probably not form an allaince with Awolowo becasue Awolowo waged an ethnic campaing against him when Zik contested for Lagos seat, secondly if Ahmadu could have won over Zik, what does it indicate to you, Sagacity, the wiser political tactician won the day, politics in Nigeria at any time should be fraught wth difficult negotaitions, that is a fact that you fail to see, as to you when ever the NPC wins it must be by cheating- SAME BIGOTRY AND HATRED STEAMING OUT IN YOUR POST, forgetting again that this simply miss the fradulent points you were making, the NPC won seats in the MB then is only an indication that the North has worked as a single unit before only puts to lie your hatred theory, more importantly the 1993 vote revealed that the Hausa people were quite open minded in supporting a non hausa candidate from the west.

aletheia:

It is just this sort of aberration and inequity in which a party that polled the least number of votes ends up having the largest number of seats in parliament that "zoning" seeks to preserve. Such aberration is what breeds distrust.

Talk about Ignorance of epic proportions, if you do not understand the sort of electoral system used then, you should have atleast educate yourself a little bit, till date america has an electoral system that can short change the voters, the electoral college in 2000 was at odds with the popular votes, that is gore won the popular votes bush won at the electoral college, hence talking of in justice when you lack understanding of voting systems is very pathetic, u need to understand how the british voting system works for you to understand why popular votes in 1959 did translate to parliamentary majority, zoning brought a minority tribe to the position of VP, in all other elections it was all about the three big tribes now we are having more concurance, if that fact is too grave for you to admit, then it is a shame, Zoning, i am not advocating for, has open a lot of doors for minorities, again for you to compare zoning to the system of voting used in 1959 only shows your desperation, there are totally at odds.

aletheia:

A free and fair election in Nigeria in which anyone is free to vie for the highest office in the land without recourse to the rubbish doctrine of zoning is what Nigeria needs. 

Evidently you seem in haste to divert the point I was making as i said zoning brought GEJ to the position of VP, if that fact is too hard to digest then try some milk.

*Yawn* You are not saying anything of importance to me just rehashing old arguments. Allowing a merit based system favors all including the minorities as cream always rises to the top. Some of the most successful Nigerians are not from any of the 3 major tribes. Zoning is a system designed to disenfranchise the minorities. If zoning as you say is responsible for GEJ's emergence as President then why the hue and cry from your cousins in the North about being denied the Presidency? Why can't they wait for an Igbo man to be president before demanding that the Presidency rotates to them. . .unless of course, there's something they are not telling us or a hidden agenda. It is nothing but deceit and hypocrisy. Spin it however you want; we all know that GEJ's emergence was an Act of God and nothing to do with zoning. I repeat: Your so-called "largest" tribe of Hausa (+Fulani) numbers not more than 30% of the entire Nigerian Population. If the remaining Nigerians (Yorubas + Igbos + Nothern minorities + Southern minorities) get together and decide not to vote for any Hausa man as president, case closed. Zoning is designed to prevent that eventuality (which happened on June 12, 1993---hence the annulment of the election through the Hausa-dominated Military government).

Now go away. Or contribute something pertinent to the purpose of this thread.

aletheia:


Now go away. Or contribute something pertinent to the purpose of this thread.

, it is a good thing that you know how lame your argument are, don't worry when we want an interpretation of jonh 3:16, we will call you, but politics is not in your league. .

aletheia:

^^The Fulani are a minority there. Adamawa has had a non-Fulani governor in the person of Boni Haruna. The Military Regimes that ruled Nigeria from 84-99 seriously distorted the structure of Nigeria in a bid to impose Hausa-Fulani hegemony. The strategy has always been to seed the Middle-Belt with Hausa-Fulani enclaves and then appoint an Emir there as a means to consolidating political power. For example consider the case of Lafia in Nasarawa which was carved out from Plateau state. The state is majority non-Hausa, but we see the governors always being from that tribe. When Nasarawa was created; hundreds of Hausa people were bused into Lafia and settled there. In the case of Plateau state for example; Jos North was gerrymandered by Babangida and Abacha to try and produce a Hausa majority in the Birom/Afizere/Anaguta heartland whereas the indigenous people actually requested for Fadare LGA. In Yobe state; Fika (the hometown of Ciroma) is actually barely more than a large village but it has an Emir because it is a Fulani settlement (Remember Yobe state is economically unviable and was carved out of Borno state).

The truth is that a free-and-fair election in which our votes count will destroy once and for all the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy's dominance of Nigerian politics (even in the first republic with a monolithic NPC; they could not muster a majority in parliament without the help of the NCNC and other small parties). This was partly why the June 12 election was annulled. This is also why the Northern oligarch's are agitated over "zoning" because it guarantees them a shot at power.

I repeat: those who think Buhari will outperform GEJ in the Middle-Belt states are sadly mistaken. Did you know that all three leading candidates for governor in Plateau state; PDP, Labor Party and ANPP endorsed GEJ for president?

P.S. The BBC map is grossly inaccurate: it doesn't show the other northern tribes, for example the Kataf people of Southern Kaduna. On the basis of what does it show a pocket of Hausa around Abuja?

True talk.

Vindicated!

1) Where are the people that said Buhari would win the Middle-Belt? Shows they were out of touch with the reality. Voting patterns clearly followed history.
2) The Models on this thread were quite accurate: reflecting the triumph of data and rational objectivity over emotionalism.

Well done guys. We have learnt a lot.

I learnt that Nigerians think it is ok to accept rigged elections.

Election of 2003 rigged
election of 2007 rigged
Election of 2011 rigged.

No rigged election results could be used as a model to project future elections results, as rigged election results cannot be trusted, hence any model would be flawed

jason123:
SW
The South is based on my educated guess. People in the SW like Jonathan, they will not vote for PDP for gov or senate but they will vote for Jonathan because they like his name Goodluck and they think he is a Messiah. Jonathan will get 55%, Ribadu gets 32%, Buhari 8%, and Shekarau 5%. (Buhari got 7% in Lagos in 2003).

^^^
That was a good prediction except that you underestimated Buhari in the SW especially Lagos. The SW has a soft spot for GEJ (according to my private research) but I think you over estimated him there especially after the "rascal" statement.

Well, turns out he didn't.