Solomon, my good friend. There is no need to kick against the thorns. There are two polls on the guardian website. One has over 400 votes and the other has over 100 votes. The picture of the poll you posted is the one that has over 100 votes. I think the one with more votes should give a better picture.

You can check the site yourself
Poll 1 (Less voters, created in March 2011): [url]http://guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_communitypolls&controller=polls&task=viewpoll&id=49%3Apresidential-race&Itemid=653#[/url]

Poll 2 (More voters, created since Dec 2010): [url]http://guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_communitypolls&controller=polls&task=viewpoll&id=44%3Awho-do-you-think-should-be-nigerias-president-in-2011&Itemid=653[/url]

Both polls really dont count much because we are talking about millions of voters on ground vs a few hundreds online. Most of these online voters may even be outside Nigeria.
I do not like PDP as a party but I know that 2011 is theirs once again. I only pray that GEJ will perform because all that is left till 2015 is HOPE.

This is the picture of the one with over 400 votes:

efisher:

Solomon, my good friend. There is no need to kick against the thorns. There are two polls on the guardian website. One has over 400 votes and the other has over 100 votes. The picture of the poll you posted is the one that has over 100 votes. I think the one with more votes should give a better picture.

You can check the site yourself

Both polls really dont count much because we are talking about millions of voters on ground vs a few hundreds online. Most of these online voters may even be outside Nigeria.
I do not like PDP as a party but I know that 2011 is theirs once again. I only pray that GEJ will perform because all that is left till 2015 is HOPE.

This is the picture of the one with over 400 votes:

While I agree with you that these polls don't count much, it seems you forgot to mention that the poll with over 400 votes was created before the PDP primaries when GEJ's popularity was at it's peak. The poll with just above 100 votes actually reflects the real mood of the populace based on the current trend. Despite all tactics by GEJ to stifle the opposition parties, the Buhari/Bakare team's popularity is soaring by the minute.

North west and north east is 29million (buhari) niger, nassarawa plus 25 percent in all north central votes is Buhari, south south and south east is 15 million for Jonathan, South west is ACN and Bakare is from south west. Bros or sister, PDP is dying and Jonathan knows this. That is why he has said TWICE Now, if I lose I will go. He is seeing the handwriting on the wall!

Genbuhari3:

North west and north east is 29million (buhari) niger, nassarawa plus 25 percent in all north central votes is Buhari, south south and south east is 15 million for Jonathan, South west is ACN and Bakare is from south west. Bros or sister, PDP is dying and Jonathan knows this. That is why he has said TWICE Now, if I lose I will go. He is seeing the handwriting on the wall!

EVen if GEJ refuses to leave, he'll be summarily pushed out of Aso Rock.

@efisher

I personally think that Jonathan will have 25% in two thirds of the states. However, I do not think that Buhari will have 25% in two thirds of the states because that will mean that he needs to win 25% in at least 5 Southern states. Unfortunately the chance of than happening is very low. Hence, I still stand by my position that Buhari needs to win the popular vote. I do not think that it is impossible but it will require so many stars to align. If such a thing happens, it will be the biggest political upset in Nigerian history. Attached is a scenario that I have where that can happen. I try to make my assumptions as realistic as possible. I assume that the zoning issue will be so big of an issue that Ribadu outperforms President Jonathan in the NW. Ribadu gets double digit support in the NE which eats into President Jonathan's support. Ribadu also makes the NC a three way race. These are the conditions that are needed for Buhari and I have no way of telling if these conditions are being met. In a very strange way, Buhari needs Ribadu to do well in this election. He needs Ribadu to win in the SW and he needs Ribadu to be a strong contender in the NC. Also Buhari needs double digit support in the SW.

For Buhari to become our next president, there will have to be a runoff election. Buhari will be better off winning the popular vote the first time because that will demystify the PDP and remove the air of inevitability around the party. If it is a case where PDP wins the popular vote but not 25% in 24 states, they will be harder to beat. Because they will still be seen as the winner that only needs to be confirmed.

^^^In your opinion what are the chances of Buhari winning the popular vote?

@aletheia,

Right now I am not in the position to say.  What I am hearing is that Ribadu's chance of winning in the SW is shaky, hence I estimate he narrowly wins.  A Ribadu campaign staffer I communicate with from time to time told me that Ribadu will out perform Jonathan in the NW and NE because of zoning issue.  He also says that Ribadu could pull atleast 20% in the SE, win Benue state and make the middle-belt a three way race.  I try to be more conservative with my analysis.  Also, he is a Ribadu staffer and is obviously optimistic about his candidates prospects.  I would need to hear input from others on the factors stated to be able to say.  To be clear, I need input from people who live in Nigeria or people who are in touch with politically conscious people who live in Nigeria.  As the Bible says "in the multiple of counsel comes wisdom"  .  For now, I would say that President Jonathan is still the man to beat.  Buhari is an insurgent candidate who is building momentum.  I worked on the Obama campaign and I can tell you that Buhari now is that way Obama was a few months before Iowa.  I only wish Buhari had a few more months to campaign.  Buhari winning the popular vote and forcing a runoff will be similar to Obama's Iowa moment.  It will completely demystify the PDP the same way Obama demystified the Clintons.  

Now back to your question.  Right now I will say that an instance where Buhari wins the popular vote is not impossible, but I am not yet sure if the above conditions have been met.  Thus, I need input from people who live in Nigeria.  Will Ribadu may underperform in the SW thus helping Jonathan?  Has the anger about zoning receded?  Has Ribadu made enough inroads in the North to outperform Jonathan in the NW and NE?  Has CPC establish enough name recognition in Kogi and Kwara?  Is Ribadu strong enough in the NC and can he make it a three way race?  Will Shekarau over perform in the North thus hurting Buhari?  These questions need to be answered and I do not have enough info to answer them precisely.

@ danjohn, from the news I am getting, these are what I can say:

1. BB is gaining some momentum in Lagos but has a cieling beyond which it cannot grow due to the effect of religious sentiments.
2. In the rest of SW, the picture is very much the same (PDP and ACN still have a huge share). You heard right that Ribadu is shaky here.
3. ACN is NOT making much headway in the North. The CPC vs PDP battle is dwarfing ACN daily.
4. The north remains BB for the masses and support is growing enough to make PDP worried.
5. The new twist in PDP zoning suggests that the powers of the North (the elite) have agreed to some form of deal with Jonathan with the help of OBJ.
6. PDP has a new strategy which is set to sweep some very important votes in the North to them. (The idea is to dwarf BB support by maximizing their strongholds everywhere in the North. I can only guess that it may be in places like Kano but I do not know the details.)

I say that we should expect surprises in these last few days FROM THE NORTH! There is where the games will be played (or have been played).

danjohn & aletheia,

Check out this article on tribune website: http://tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/politics-analysis/3644-as-elections-commence-the-contenders-the-pretenders.html

It may give you an insight into which parties really exist on ground in the key states. Enjoy

efisher:

danjohn & aletheia,

Check out this article on tribune website: http://tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/politics-analysis/3644-as-elections-commence-the-contenders-the-pretenders.html

It may give you an insight into which parties really exist on ground in the key states. Enjoy

Tribune and Thisday are not known to be be objective in their reporting. How many anti Akala articles have you read on Tribune in the last 4 years? Interestingly, you'll find more articles in Tribune criticizing Fashola than those (if any) critiquing Akala's administration. Any sane person knows that Akala is perhaps the worst governor in Nigeria today. I'd take articles emanating from the Nigerian Tribunes and Thisdays of this world with a pinch of salt.

^^^I guess you didn't see this in the Tribune article:

The ACN, political analysts contend, has a good chance of claiming over 70 per cent victory at the polls, while other political parties will scramble for the remaining.

So going by your submission, am I to assume that they are lying and PDP will win Lagos state. Be objective.

Aletheia, pls don't be distracted by all the noise around. Let's refine our model and trade findings. The tribune article tells you which parties are on ground and that is the information we need. Whatever their opinion is about the candidates, we can decide to take it or leave it. With the article, I have been able to find some states where some parties do not even exist! That is the value I want us to get from it.

I would like to compare our model with the final election result at the end of the day and see whether or not we have done a good job. Carry on.

^^^Thanks. I am encouraged by guys like you who bring objectivity to political discourse.

^ You're welcome. I hope danjohn comes on board too so we can all compare final results before the election.

model is flawed because it is based on a rigged election in 2003

efisher, Aletheia and DanJohn!! Wonderful job you guys are doing!! I'm following!!

efisher:

^ You're welcome. I hope danjohn comes on board too so we can all compare final results before the election. 

Here's my current projection based on an overall national voter turnout of 72%. It sees Buhari falling short by more than 3 million votes and only securing more than 25% of votes in only 19 states. I believe his decision to ignore the SS and SE states is going to cost him (apart from reinforcing beliefs that he is anti-Igbo). While he has ignored his main opponents support base, the PDP on the other hand has consistent targeted the NW and NE with a view to winning at least a third of the votes there. As in the US, presidential elections are won a state by state basis. The mistake of the Buhari campaign has been to treat the country as regions.

But then this is a model and the caveat is that voters may decide otherwise.

I am waiting for the results of the April 2 elections to update the inputs because I think most people will vote for the national assembly elections in a pattern similar to how they will vote in the presidential elections.

P.S. This projected results are based on the worst-case scenario of PDP losing in all the SW states (highly improbable in my opinion, I believe that PDP will win the presidential elections in Lagos, Oyo and Ondo states).

You can't base a model on previous elections in this country as they were all flawed. These numbers you are using literally mean nothing. I appreciate the hard work but really you are wasting your time.

@Aletheia
What seven states do you project a Ribadu victory

^^All the SW states + Benue. But like I said PDP losing in all SW states is the worst-case scenario (an outcome that I believe is highly improbable). Check post #63 where I attached my latest model. . .check the <Weights> worksheet; where I included my state by state comments.

appletango:

You can't base a model on previous elections in this country as they were all flawed. These numbers you are using literally mean nothing. I appreciate the hard work but really you are wasting your time.

I beg to differ. Firstly, previous elections will demonstrate trends, because even with rigging people come out to vote and in the Nigerian context, all parties rig in their strongholds; so expect CPC to rig in the NW.
Secondly, no election is entirely free of the influence of history. I don't need anyone to tell me that in Plateau state for example (especially with what is going on in Jos); Buhari will lose. Right from the First Republic, the people of Plateau state have voted against Hausa-Fulani dominated parties. Besides, the variables considered in this model also took into account history and current situation on ground.
Thirdly, your emotions cloud your objectivity and fail to allow you see that you also can download the model and change the inputs to reflect whatever assumptions underlie what you consider to be a "free and fair" election, in order to see what the results may look like. That is why it is open for any one to do that. Why don't you do that and upload for us to see. . .how will the results of a free and fair election look like in your opinion using objective measures rather than wishy-washy emotional reasons? A lot of you Buhari supporters are now falling into the habit of "shooting the messenger" because you don't like the message: which is trends analysis and polling data point to a loss for your candidate in the coming April elections.

Sorry if the model is based on an previous elections that are rigged, then the model is flawed.

Why can you not understand that?

^^^Sorry if that is giving you headache and heartache. Why don't you download it and alter it to give us a model that is flawless. Is it so difficult for you to do that? Typical PHD Nigerian. Trying to discredit what doesn't favor you: typical negative campaign tactics of Buhari's supporters so far. If the model had predicted that Buhari was going to win; you would have praised it to high heavens and circulated it among all your friends. Stop being hypocritical. Your principal goofed big time by ignoring a large portion of the country.

It is obvious you don't know what a model is. Is it people like you that will be advising General Buhari if he becomes president? Using analog tools to solve problems in a digital age. No wonder he has no plan for the power sector and education. Go away, you 've made your point. . .this is about the third time your are repeating yourself "the model is flawed".

^That would be pure speculation

GenBuhari:

^That would be pure speculation

Why not make your own speculations intelligently also so that everybody can benefit!! Its good to be emotional, but smart people try to detach emotions from practical analysis so as to avoid beclouding their judgement.

[size=24pt]Vote Buhari-Bakare 2011[/size] for the future of our children

^^^^^^
Solomon, this thread is non partisan!! Would be cool to stop the spamming. Lets at least have one thread here on Nairaland where both Buhari, Ribadu and GEJ candidates can discuss the elctions freely without resulting to sentiments.

dont mind them!! dubious political scammers!!

can u imagine,most of them lied to get their papers into their slave haven siberia,now they are lying on the net that BUHARI has taken over the SW whereas this man has no single prominent political follower or followership in the whole SW!!

Most people dont know his party and are not even sure the oldman is contesting,yet these group of liars continue to use multiple IDs to promote and falsify buhari's rating in the SW!!

THE OLDMAN HAS CLOSE TO NIL POLITICAL FOLLOWING IN THE WHOLE SOUTH!!

Abeg serious people,pls see through their deceit,this is what they have to offer-lies uponb lies,dont vote their principal,make sure your votes go to RIBADU!

efisher:

danjohn & aletheia,

Check out this article on tribune website: http://tribune.com.ng/sat/index.php/politics-analysis/3644-as-elections-commence-the-contenders-the-pretenders.html

It may give you an insight into which parties really exist on ground in the key states. Enjoy

I just realized that an objective way of assessing each parties strength on the ground is to find out which in which states the parties are presenting candidates in the National Assembly elections. There's a list on the Daily Trust website. I think it can also be got from the INEC website.

Speculation is pointless

I think the election process itself will create some problems. Let me explain,

The procedure is to accredit voters from 8.am. to noon after which no other voter will be accredited. If this is the case, we will inevitably record very low turn out in centres where the officials are less efficient. The situation will be such that centres with lots of voters will have risk of people getting automatically disenfranchised. The registration process took several weeks to conduct. Now, we have just a few hours. In addition, logistics problems and several other things may eat into the accreditation time. In effect, we may have several states recording about 50% turnout!

This will have a huge effect on the election results if not properly controlled.

^^^Not necessarily, INEC has said all those present at the polling units as at 12 noon will be accredited and will vote. No one will be disenfranchised who turns up at the polling unit before 12 even if accreditation extends beyond 12 because of high turnout.

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5686280-146/story.csp