And why 2003 elections sef?

Why not 2007?

or better still 1993?

I strongly disagree with dis model because Lagos which is a key state was not given dew consideration. Secondly, Never in d history of dis country do u have volunteering for candidates & I can tell u GEJ has d most minute volunteers. There is a new dimension to campaigning I'm beginning to study. If u read d write-up of David-West he said something really important. For too long religion has been out of politics & when dat happens there is godlessness, all forms of corruption of d highest order. U'll realise BB has played d smartest of all political maneuvers ever in d history of dis country. His adoption of Pastor Bakare as his running mate has transformed his campaign from just a campaign to something more like winning back d Nigerian soul from d hands of Godless men It's more like a cause rather than just d normal campaign. Has anyone ever taught y people work for free or for meagre pay in churches? For months now almost all d mosques in d country have been urging their members to vote Buhari. For d first time in a very long time it's not about religion but about corruption even though d PDP are trying hard to convince people dat it is about religion. They have tried to dabble into d Generals integrity only to hastily retreat. I 4 one am amazed dat without campaign posters BB has come thus far in d SW. For dis reason I see d BB ticket more than doubling d 2003 votes.

Why do people enjoy swimming against the tide. Cant you see there's no vacancy in Asorock.

For me, the only way pdp can be stamped out is to have a single or major opposition. Only Buhari can match gej. I wish all other contestants can step down for him. Nigeria is ripe for change and i don't see pdp as an agent of positive change. God bless 9ija.

PrinceBYC:

For me, the only way pdp can be stamped out is to have a single or major opposition. Only Buhari can match gej. I wish all other contestants can step down for him. Nigeria is ripe for change and i don't see pdp as an agent of positive change. God bless 9ija.

That's exactly what will happen as soon as the other candidates realize they cannot even win their respective local councils. Thousands of Nigerians are now using their personal money to finance the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Team GEJ can keep to wallowing in dreamland and keep their propaganda machine running. At the current rate, Buhari may not even require a run off to win the election out-rightly.

Excellent, Excellent, Excellent!! DanJohn thanks for the effort!! Your intelligence is unquestionable!

However I would beg to differ on some of the postulations!!


1)

Kano:
I assume that turnout is 80% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 50/50.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 80/5/15.

This assumption is pretty faulty. Shekarau has some degree of popularity in his home state and would surely be scoring more than the 15% votes you've accorded him. I would posit something in the range of 30%.

2)

NW excluding Kano:
I assume that turnout is 80% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 50/50.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

One key factor omitted here. And that is the Kaduna factor. Kaduna has about 20% of all the registered voters in the North West. Also Kaduna has the highest population of southerners in all of the Northern states. Thirdly, the southern Kaduna factor and also, the Sambo facor should not be ignored.

3)

NC excluding Benue:
I assume that turnout is 65% because of lower enthusiasm as a result of no zoning problem and no indigen on the ticket.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 60/40.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

The Jos crises is a key factor that was absent in the running to 2003 and is an influential decider in 2011.

4)

Edo
Because it is an ACN state Ribadu has a good showing but does not win.  Jonathan (58%), Ribadu (34%), Buhari (6%), Shekarau (2%).  Buhari got 10% in Edo state in 2003.

There is no way Ribadu is scoring 34% in Edo state. When the incumbent Governor is not running for elections, his impact on the electorate is reduced. I visit Edo state pretty much and can say categorically that Jonathan would sweep the state by a much larger margin.

But overall, excellent analysis.
The most influential factors in this election are Religion and Finance.

Rural Voters
Many Nairalanders forget that the highest amount of voters reside in rural areas (about 70%) and these ruralites have a very different way of assessing performance. Corruption is not one of their measures. Infrastructure development isn't either. Neither is jobs and economic development.

Their key mode of assessment is the politician that visits their village just before the elections to hand them cash and items like t shirts ,rice, umbrellas, mobile phones and biscuits with the politicians pictures slapped on the package.

PDP understands Nigerian politics and thats why they keep winning elections. The opposition failed the moment their selfishness prevented them from merging.
CPC's biggest undoing would be its lack of reach in the rural areas of the South West and middle belt.
PDP has gone rural. They are moving from village to village distributing cash and items and the villagers are happy and would be putting their fingers anywhere they see "umbllerra,umblerra"

GenBuhari:

[size=14pt]danjohn,

You are not fooling me you purposely posted 1 or 2 pro-Buhari post to support your untrue claim  that u are pro- Buhari, but all your actions is demonstrating that you are secretly a PDP supporter.

How can you use the results of a hugely rigged elections as the basis of your model?

Doesn't that mean your model is flawed.

abeg just admit that you a PDP supporter and I would have more respect for u.

Nonsense [/size]

GenBuhari, I am not a PDP supporter.  In fact it would be hard to find a more anti PDP person than me.  The first model I put up was for a post titled "Buhari's Road To Victory" it was a model stating the goals that the Buhari campaign must set in order to ensure that a runoff election happens.  GEJ has made some strategic errors that have hurt his popularity but he is still the man to beat in this race.  The PDP is the ruling party and the party to beat.  I used 2003 for only the North.  It is the only election where Buhari went head to head against a Southerner in the North.  In 2003, the popular saying among PDP politicians was that "you have to be popular to rig".  Below is how Buhari performed in 2003 in the North:

NW
Sokoto 73%
Kano 75%
Zamfara 80%
Katsina 76%
Kebbi 65%
Jigawa 80%
Kaduna 45%

NE
Borno 65%
Taraba 22%
Adamawa 30%
Gombe 53%
Yobe         64%
Bauchi 62%

NC
Nasarawa 34%
Fct          38%
Plateau 31%
Kwara 30%
Kogi          36%
Benue 41%
Niger 40%

GenBuhari I do not think that PDP rigged in the NW and NE.  Maybe in the NC.  I do not think PDP would rig 75% in Kano for Buhari or 80% in Jigawa, or 76% in Kastina, or 80% in Zamfara.  I DID NOT USE THE MODEL TO PROJECT THE SOUTH. The results in the South was a very big joke that is why I excluded it.  The result in the North looked like a reflection of public opinion.  I am not saying that it is a precise reflection of public opinion but it is directional enough.  Below are the results in the South in 2003 for Obasanjo:

Lagos 69%
Ogun 99.9%
Oyo         94%
Ondo 95%
Osun 95%
Ekiti         92%

Abia         52%
Anambra 54%
Imo         65%
Ebonyi 95%
Enugu 80%

Rivers    93%
Delta    94%
Akwa Ibom  83%
Edo             89%
C/River     98%
Bayelsa     96%

For the purpose of this analysis the results from the South were dead on arrival.  99.9% in Ogun state looks blatantly rigged.  My brother, no self respecting Nigerian would wants a president who pals around with Anthony Anenih, Bode George, Alao-Akala, or Alamesigha.  For you to say that I am a PDP supporter pretending is something that I find very offensive.  I am a radical and I love my country.  I find it hard to understand how a person can say they love Nigeria and vote for PDP.  However, I understand that it is not my job to questions another person's patriotism. 

My reason for posting this model is to have a discussion with people on where public opinion stands if the election is held today.   Already I have admitted that I underestimating Buhari's support in the South.  I am on ground hence my view of things is limited.  I clearly stated that folks can adjust the model with their own assumptions and repost it.  It is a discussion.  We both love politics and we both love our country.  Please let us go back to discussing what we think the outcome of the election will be.  We do not need to question each others loyalty.

GenBuhari:

And why 2003 elections sef?

Why not 2007?

or better still 1993?

2003 measures Buhari's support in the North because Buhari's primary opponent was a Southerner.  In 2003 Buhari did well in the North and won 11 states.  Kano by 75%, Kastina by 76%, Jigawa by 80%, Zamfara 80%.  I doubt PDP rigged those numbers in Buhari's favor.  In 1999 Buhari was not on the ticket so I didnt use it.  In 2007 Buhari's primary opponent was a Northerner from a famous family.  That is different from 2003 where Buhari's opponent was a sitting president from the South.  I DID NOT USE 2003 FOR THE SOUTH BECAUSE THE RESULT FROM THE SOUTH LOOKED VERY SUSPICIOUS.

The biggest curve ball in this race is if some of the people who voted for Obasanjo in the North vote for Buhari in 2011 because of the zoning issue.

Papabrowne,

Thank you for your constructive feedback.  I among your listed feedback, 1 and 4 seem valid but 2 and 3 are captured in the model.

In 2003 Buhari got 45.4% in Kaduna.  I assume he gets 90% of 45.4%  (because he may lose 10% to Shekarau and Ribadu)  which is 40.86%.  If Jonathan and Ribadu split the remaining votes, Buhari can win Kaduna.

In 2003 Buhari got 31% in Plateau state.  Do you think that is a reflection of the Hausa/Fulani population size in Plateau state.  If Buhari gets 90% of that, then he goes home with 28% of the vote.  Don't you think that is a realistic assumption?

Abuja BB: 40% RA: 10% GEJ: 40% SO: 7%
Edo BB: 15% RA: 30% GEJ: 50%
Lagos BB: 30% RA: 20% GEJ: 45%
Oyo BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 50% SO: 5%
Ekiti BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ:35%
Ondo BB: 25% RA: 30% GEJ: 40%
Osun BB: 28% RA: 22% GEJ: 45%
Ogun BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 58%
Bayelsa BB 3% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Rivers BB 10% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Cross River: BB 10% RA: 2% GEJ: 80%
Benue BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ: 35%
Kogi BB: 40% RA: 25% GEJ: 35%
Ebonyi BB: 10% RA: 5% GEJ: 80%
Anambra BB: 2% RA: 12% GEJ: 90%
Abia BB: 7% RA: 3% GEJ: 89%
Enugu BB: 8% RA: 3% GEJ: 88%
Imo BB: 12% RA: 4% GEJ: 80%
Delta BB: 5% RA: 1% GEJ: 85%

Overall BB: 50% RA: 10% GEJ: 40%

please no questions. That's d result d way I saw them. Cross check in 3 weeks. By d way results in 15 wards will be cancelled.

dream on.it is not ghosts that will vote,it is those people who mostly in the south could rarely recall buhari is contesting.in politics,u nid someone to tell someone through ur party mechanism.No single poster of any other cpc candidate is in the whole of Lagos and u gave him 25%

Ribadu will coast home to victory in lagos and the whole SW,almost half of ss through rivers,edo,akwa-ibom,delta where ACN candidates/government are on ground and strong.,you will know people are not sleeping.

^^^^

People in Lagos are more aware of the BB ticket than any other place in the south, keep deceiving yourself, by the time it hit you, you'd have your fingers in your mouth.

Tinubu can't tell any Lagosian who to vote for, not and won't happen.

BB are yet to campaign in Lagos, when they do, you're going to see what happens, they are obviously saving Lagos for the last days.

The north put us in the mess we are today. Buhari go away

Deliving:

The north put us in the mess we are today. Buhari go away

Utterances like this continue to stifle the growth and development of our country.  You came in here and said that Buhari should not be president based on nothing but his tribal/geographic affiliation.  You presented no objective analysis based on his position on issues or his antecedents.  Nothing!!!!!  You should be ashamed of yourself.

danjohn:

Utterances like this continue to stifle the growth and development of our country.  You came in here and said that Buhari should not be president based on nothing but his tribal/geographic affiliation.  You presented no objective analysis based on his position on issues or his antecedents.  Nothing!!!!!  You should be ashamed of yourself.

This same way majority of Buhari supporters (those in the crowds) are clamouring for Buhari for the simple fact that tribally speaking, he is one of them!! If it were for intergrity, they surely wouldn't celebrate a Southerner with even more integrity than Buhari. Truth is ethnicity and religion are the strongest factors in Nigerian politics and it isn't going to change anytime soon. Even in the USA, race is a still a strong factor in politcis and the economy. That doesn't say I support it though, it is just plain backward!!

GEJ IS GOING TO WIN-

i dont even like that idiotttt but hes will win.

PapaBrowne:

This same way majority of Buhari supporters (those in the crowds) are clamouring for Buhari for the simple fact that tribally speaking, he is one of them!! If it were for intergrity, they surely wouldn't celebrate a Southerner with even more integrity than Buhari. Truth is ethnicity and religion are the strongest factors in Nigerian politics and it isn't going to change anytime soon. Even in the USA, race is a still a strong factor in politcis and the economy. That doesn't say I support it though, it is just plain backward!!

My critic was not about the Buhari crowds it was about Delivering's statment.  Yes tribe and religion, unfortunately, remain factors in our politics; however, it is the job of every true patriot to denounce and reject those prejudices whenever they raise their ugly heads.  Shikena

^^^^^
I agree!!

sleekman:

Abuja BB: 40% RA: 10% GEJ: 40% SO: 7%
Edo BB: 15% RA: 30% GEJ: 50%
Lagos BB: 30% RA: 20% GEJ: 45%
Oyo BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 50% SO: 5%
Ekiti BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ:35%
Ondo BB: 25% RA: 30% GEJ: 40%
Osun BB: 28% RA: 22% GEJ: 45%
Ogun BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 58%
Bayelsa BB 3% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Rivers BB 10% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Cross River: BB 10% RA: 2% GEJ: 80%
Benue BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ: 35%
Kogi BB: 40% RA: 25% GEJ: 35%
Ebonyi BB: 10% RA: 5% GEJ: 80%
Anambra BB: 2% RA: 12% GEJ: 90%
Abia BB: 7% RA: 3% GEJ: 89%
Enugu BB: 8% RA: 3% GEJ: 88%
Imo BB: 12% RA: 4% GEJ: 80%
Delta BB: 5% RA: 1% GEJ: 85%

Overall BB: 50% RA: 10% GEJ: 40%

This is very possible, I wouldn't be shocked if BB won some southwest states and how come you gave GEJ 50% in my home state (Oyo). PDP has been the worst thing to ever happen to the state. They can't wait to vote Akala and GEJ out.

sleekman:

Abuja BB: 40% RA: 10% GEJ: 40% SO: 7%
Edo BB: 15% RA: 30% GEJ: 50%
Lagos BB: 30% RA: 20% GEJ: 45%
Oyo BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 50% SO: 5%
Ekiti BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ:35%
Ondo BB: 25% RA: 30% GEJ: 40%
Osun BB: 28% RA: 22% GEJ: 45%
Ogun BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 58%
Bayelsa BB 3% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Rivers BB 10% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Cross River: BB 10% RA: 2% GEJ: 80%
Benue BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ: 35%
Kogi BB: 40% RA: 25% GEJ: 35%
Ebonyi BB: 10% RA: 5% GEJ: 80%
Anambra BB: 2% RA: 12% GEJ: 90%
Abia BB: 7% RA: 3% GEJ: 89%
Enugu BB: 8% RA: 3% GEJ: 88%
Imo BB: 12% RA: 4% GEJ: 80%
Delta BB: 5% RA: 1% GEJ: 85%

Overall BB: 50% RA: 10% GEJ: 40%

Is this a joke? 

CPC can never get up to 25% in any SW state (It is for ACN and PDP to share)
GEJ can not get less than 75% in any SS state (To be very pessimistic including in Edo state)
Abuja, the centre of contracts (no further comments)

PapaBrowne:

This same way majority of Buhari supporters (those in the crowds) are clamouring for Buhari for the simple fact that tribally speaking, he is one of them!! If it were for intergrity, they surely wouldn't celebrate a Southerner with even more integrity than Buhari. Truth is ethnicity and religion are the strongest factors in Nigerian politics and it isn't going to change anytime soon. Even in the USA, race is a still a strong factor in politcis and the economy. That doesn't say I support it though, it is just plain backward!!

And who are these majority of Buhari supporters are you referring to? Are the crowds who attended his rallies in Port-Harcourt, Ibadan and Owerri all northerners too? If tribalism were to have been the case, how come GEJ was also able to pull some crowd in the north? The are regions which has proved beyond any reasonable doubt that their choice has nothing to do with merit and/or achievements are the South-South and the South East regions. I just can't phantom why the likes of you find it easy to ascribe any move by the northerners to tribalism and religious bigotry, but fail to admit that such acts are even worse off in the SE and SS regions.

KEEP DREAMING ON.BY NEXT WEEK SATURDAY,YOU WILL FIRST HAVE A TASTE OF THE KIND OF SEVERE POLITICAL BRUISING BB/GEJ WILL RECEIVE IN LAGOS.

INSTEAD OF YOU TO TAKE MY OBSERVATION OF LOW PERFORMANCE/POPULARITY OF THE BB TICKET IN LAGOS SERIOUSLY,YOU[b] KEEP DELUDING YOURSELF THAT THE WHOLE 57 LGA ACN CHAIRMAN ,THE 85% ACN HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY,OVER A THOUSAND ACN WARD EXECUTIVES,THE ACN CONTROLLED CIVIL SERVICE,ROYAL FATHERS LIKE OBA OF LAGOS,OBA AKIOLU,NURTW,ACN CONTROLLED MARKET WOMEM/MEN BODIES,THE OVER 100 ACN CANDIDATES PARTICIPATING IN THIS ELECTION,etc IN LAGOS WILL MOBILISE VOTES FOR BB/GEJ.DREAM ON.[/b]

LAGOSIANS WONT LISTEN TO TINUBU??DONT WORRY,LAGOSIANS WILL LISTEN TO EITHER OBASANJO(GEJ) OR BUHARI(who cancelled the proposed jakande administration's plan to build a metroline) OR BOTH OF THEM.

DREAM ON,DREAM ON!!

Good work. However the assumptions on which your projections are based are flawed. In the NW the turn out is going to be in the region of 90%, there is very strong anti Jonathan sentiments there. Ribadu and Shekarau are viewed as hypocrites who are being used by GEJ/OBJ against the North. Shekarau has the added baggage of his betrayal of Buhari in 2007. Even at Kano and especially at Kano he will not share in Buhari's votes. You also did not consider the fact that this presidential election is very likely to be much more credible than 2003, votes will count. Based on this Buhari's showing is likely to be much more in the NE. People do not like admitting this but it's a fact of our polity, most people in the NE are Muslims and would not vote for a GEJ against a Buhari, simply because one is a Muslim and the other is not. A credible election will reflect this. It'll count in Niger, Nasarawa,Kogi and Kwara and to a small but significant extent in Plateau. In Benue, the people are just pissed at PDP, those names supporting GEJ are spent forces who derive their relevance from supporting him not the other way round.
I do not know about the SW so I will let it be.

@ danjohn, once again welldone on your work, I have been having a nice time playing around it.


I tried to tweak things and I discovered that even after stretching assumptions to the limit, a combination of votes from ACN, CPC and ANPP strongholds will not still be enough to topple PDP. Please, have you been able to model any realistic scenario where PDP loses by up to 45% vs 55% and less than 25% votes in 2/3 of states?

Kindly let me know because I am trying to model the possibility of an alliance toppling PDP in 2015. Assuming PDP presents a Northern candidate.

^^^Check post #7: There's a second model that allows you to tweak things State by state. That might help.

@ aletheia, Thanks a mill.

I'll play around it. Well done

@ alethia, Check that the sum of projected % of voters for each state should be equal to 100%. I noticed some were more than 100%

^ok

sleekman:

Abuja BB: 40% RA: 10% GEJ: 40% SO: 7%
Edo BB: 15% RA: 30% GEJ: 50%
Lagos BB: 30% RA: 20% GEJ: 45%
Oyo BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 50% SO: 5%
Ekiti BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ:35%
Ondo BB: 25% RA: 30% GEJ: 40%
Osun BB: 28% RA: 22% GEJ: 45%
Ogun BB: 35% RA: 5% GEJ: 58%
Bayelsa BB 3% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Rivers BB 10% RA: 3% GEJ: 85%
Cross River: BB 10% RA: 2% GEJ: 80%
Benue BB: 25% RA: 40% GEJ: 35%
Kogi BB: 40% RA: 25% GEJ: 35%
Ebonyi BB: 10% RA: 5% GEJ: 80%
Anambra BB: 2% RA: 12% GEJ: 90%
Abia BB: 7% RA: 3% GEJ: 89%
Enugu BB: 8% RA: 3% GEJ: 88%
Imo BB: 12% RA: 4% GEJ: 80%
Delta BB: 5% RA: 1% GEJ: 85%

Overall BB: 50% RA: 10% GEJ: 40%

you give buhari to much in the SW- its more like GEJ 50% RIBADU-30% BUHARI%20-in a free and fair election but i doubt that would happen

This is why Jonathan and the 40 thieves cannot sleep. For those who have seen and heard but still doubting the hand-writing is getting clearer by the day.

efisher:

@ alethia, Check that the sum of projected % of voters for each state should be equal to 100%. I noticed some were more than 100%

Thanks for pointing that out. I 've added new columns in the <Inputs> sheet that checks the totals and warns if the totals are above 100%.