9ja smh!

Dear GEJ,your appalling performance can be forgiven because you became the president by chance.However,the whanton looting of the treasury is unacceptable taking into cognisance the rate at which the foreign reserve is dwindling.Just conduct credible elections and leave.

his aim is to drain it before quitting! Goodluck to him at that.

1025:

i will suggest that people here stop disturbing themselves with all these calculations. what happened to the other contracts awarded in respect to this power project? who gave the contracts and to whom? how much is involved and how much has been recovered? is it not obvious that all those behind the bogus contracts are still arround enjoying their loots and moving along well with jonathan? roadmap and seamap are all grammatical issues. how many committees have been formed in nigeria with a good ending?
all these are the same good old stories. if pdp give us light, what will they use to campiegn next time?
it has been their promise since inception.
give these ppl till 3015, there will be no light.
what happened to the winding up of phcn?

These questions you've asked and many more are some of the reasons why Buhari stated in the debate that he'll need to get to the root of the mismanagement of the $16 billion which the GEJ led PDP government has squandered on the epileptic power project.

1025:

i will suggest that people here stop disturbing themselves with all these calculations. what happened to the other contracts awarded in respect to this power project? who gave the contracts and to whom? how much is involved and how much has been recovered? is it not obvious that all those behind the bogus contracts are still arround enjoying their loots and moving along well with jonathan? roadmap and seamap are all grammatical issues. how many committees have been formed in nigeria with a good ending?
all these are the same good old stories. if pdp give us light, what will they use to campiegn next time?
it has been their promise since inception.
give these ppl till 3015, there will be no light.
what happened to the winding up of phcn?

Bros well said. So very true. This is for the ignorant ones that get carried away by sweet lies & never-ending empty promises.

you might also like this news 'brain scans to predict future criminals' click for full story http://techblogng..com/2011/03/brain-scans-to-predict-future-criminals.html

blink182:

I was suspecting you only seemed to be brilliant but the bolded confirmed that you dont know what you're talking about, please go research properly. Do you know what china is? 4000mw will not even power an industrial park in china and you think 40000mw and 4000gw are the same, wake up!

You must be the daftness blueprint! Do you have the remotest of an idea of what 4,000MW is?
Nigeria, as we speak, runs on less than 4,000MW
Johanessburg runs on about 6,000MW and yet you think 4,000MW can't power an "industrial park" in China? This is a criminal gaffe.

@topic: We'll keep going round in circles if we don't have an articulated plan for power generation. All the countries enjoying uninterrupted power supply didn't just wake up one morning and say they'll have power at a certain time. They actually worked towards it.
Ghana, for instance, literally, mapped out plans on how they'll achieve uninterrupted power supply from as far back as the mid 50's, before they attained independence. Everything they're enjoying today as regards power was contained in a blueprint.
USSR, back in the days of Lenin equally designed a blueprint for steady power supply in 1920 and the project was later completed in 1931.
The problem with ours is that it's just all talk, there's no spelt out plan on how the power problem will be solved.

^^

The problem with ours is that it's just all talk, there's no spelt out plan on how the power problem will be solved.

You're wrong. Have you heard of the Power Sector Reform Roadmap?

http://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/VetivaResearchFlashNoteNigeriaPowerSectorReformRoadmap.pdf

renewnaija:

Bros well said. So very true. This is for the ignorant ones that get carried away by sweet lies & never-ending empty promises.

I hate watching people do that -- get carried away by stories so obvious even a goat could decode the problem.

If we are to be honest with one another and not deceive ourselves, a hardworking, hands-on government will be able to give us constant electricity in as little as 10 years. Anything short of that is a pipe dream. Here is my analysis.

A Country's power requirements are never just "met". Power requirements are not static, they are constantly increasing.

Let's use Ekiti state for example.

If the average Ekiti household receives 2 hours of electricity per day now, what happens when a government is able to increase that to 4hrs/ day and then to 8hrs/day? Note that 8hrs here is arbitrary. (It just represents a significant improvement from what was previously supplied)

Here's what: Somewhere along the line as power increases, more people will be willing to invest in other sectors of the economy.
In other words, if I only had 2 hours before, and now I have 8hrs, that "may" stimulate me to go buy a TV if I didn't have one before. It "may" stimulate me to go buy an Air Conditioner if I didn't already own one. It may stimulate me to go buy a fridge or freezer so I don't have to go to the market every day. If I use my generator less, I may have some extra cash I may wish to invest in an electric cooking range or anything I want.

Consequently, as I get more electricity, and begin to trust the availability of electricity, I will begin to buy more items that use up more electricity. The average person with access to constant electricity will "want" a TV, Fridge, Freezer, AC and many more. Note that I said "want". Not everyone will be able to afford, but then,  if we begin saving on petrol and diesel, you'd be surprised how much becomes available for purchase of consumer goods.

Business-wise, as my electricity improves, I as a businessman will be more willing to buy more equipment to expand my business. The barber may decide to get an Air Conditioner to upgrade the status of his shop. The Carpenter may decide to buy a few power tools to make his job easier, or to buy a new machine that improves the quality of his work. A restaurant may decide to buy ice-machines, electric ovens and grills, and such things. These are all just basic examples.

As our power generation begins to increase, people will respond by buying more.

Due to the average income of Nigerians now, it is possible to state that Nigeria, though a third the size of South Africa, may require 40,000MW of electricity today. I don't know for sure.

If 40,000MW is sufficient to provide uninterrupted electricity this morning, it won't be enough tomorrow night because I and a lot of Nigerians who can afford it will  have run to the market to get us deep freezers, fridges, cookers, ACs and so many more things. Companies will begin to use more energy. Industries will begin to expand their manufacturing lines. Things that were done manually may now be considered cheaper to do by machine. All these will consume more power. This is why we must realize that Nigeria will need more than 100,000MW to achieve Sustained Uninterrupted Power Supply.

We need to know:
1. Our current power requirements.
2. Projected increase in the power requirements over time, and as individuals and businesses react to improved supply.
3. How much we have available to spend on power.


I don't think the average Nigerian understands the magnitude of our problem. A stitch in time saves nine, they say. We are going to have to do 9 times as much work as if we had done this over the past 25 years.

I think constant electricity would be extremely difficult to achieve in 10 years, even by a  government that is absolutely and 100% committed. Nonetheless, All things are possible.

GEJ government is not 100% committed to anything.

100,000MW of electricity will require $100 billion in investment.

I even doubt the 100,000MW can meet projected increases in requirements as supply improves.

We cannot go from 4,000MW to 40,000MW in 4 years. We cannot go from 4,000MW to 100,000MW in less than 10 years. Even if we have the will, we still need the money, and time to plan, and have the necessary structures sited, and the turbines ordered, built, tested, shipped in, transported, and then installed. I won't even bother touching on how gas or coal will reach the power stations.


We are reaping the fruits of our years of neglect of the power sector.

Galatians 6:7 - Be not deceived, God is not mocked, whatever a man (or nation) sows, that shall he (it) reap.

You don't think that if:

A) it is privatized
B) Decentralized (i.e., rather than focusing on a national grid, more focus on regional ones)
C) Price of electricity is deregulated (i.e., seller can set whatever price they want)

we won't be able to achieve 100 GW in 10 years?

Under the above conditions, then an American power company can profitably spend $5 billion on power plants, and know that he will be able to make his profit.

It doesn't really take that much time to build and set up the infrastructure, if there is profit once you finish. China was building 2 coal plants per week back in 2007. I think in the SW, if you give us the above conditions we can supply all our power needs in under a decade.

Am I wrong? If so, why?

@jensinmi:

Take a look at this for example: http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/8180768768/articles/powergenworldwide/gas-generation/combined-cycle/2011/03/Shaw-CCGP-builds.html

Under 2 years to build a new 620 MW gas plant. A plant like this would completely solve Ekiti State's power needs at least for the next few years.

If the federal government can give us the above regulatory structure, we could call (for example) Reliant Energy (the energy provider we use in Houston), concession it off to them. In two years flat, you have enough electricity to power all of Ekiti State. The caveat of course is that consumers in Ekiti will have to pay full cost for the electricity (probably around 15 cents per kWh) rather than the 4 cents they currently pay.

(I know that in practice we'd probably not locate a gas plant directly in the state, since there isn't a pipeline nearby, and LNG might be a hassle to get. In reality, we might partner with Ogun (gas pipeline there), one of the ND states (gas pipeline there) or Kogi (abundant coal.) But this illustrates how it shouldn't be more than a two year project, if we puts our minds to it.)

ekt_bear:

You don't think that if:

A) it is privatized
B) Decentralized (i.e., rather than focusing on a national grid, more focus on regional ones)
C) Price of electricity is deregulated (i.e., seller can set whatever price they want)

we won't be able to achieve 100 GW in 10 years?

Under the above conditions, then an American power company can profitably spend $5 billion on power plants, and know that he will be able to make his profit.

It doesn't really take that much time to build and set up the infrastructure, if there is profit once you finish. China was building 2 coal plants per week back in 2007. I think in the SW, if you give us the above conditions we can supply all our power needs in under a decade.

Am I wrong? If so, why?

If we were 100% committed, we could make giant strides in 10 years.
Let us note that privatization is of the current infrastructure on ground. That will still leave use with over 95GW of generation to take care of.

As of today, very few Foreign Investors will be interested in pouring their billions into a place they consider unstable, like Nigeria.
With the current state of world economy, we will need over $100 billion in investment just to meet that target.
Unless we go the Pat Utomi route of using our excess crude account or part of our foreign serves to fund a Collateral Security worth several billions in a European bank, very few companies will consider us serious about Direct Foreign Investment. The few who do invest will do so slowly and cautiously with the aim of seeing what happens over a period of several years or decades.

While Chinese companies can build a coal plant in record time within China, they cannot do the same in Nigeria where we have no roads, no trains, no electricity (yes, you do need electricity to make more electricity quickly), no water supply, inadequate expertise.

If we need 30 (thirty) 300MW generating plants around Nigeria, we will need to plan (this alone is a process of months to years depending on if it is - Gas, Coal, Hydro, Nuclear or Wind). Wuru Wuru to the answer will end in disaster. Wind would require no less than 2 years of anemometry readings and research. The others will require their own specific planning processes.  Some of those stations you are seeing being built quickly in China took several years to plan and have been in-waiting since.We'd then need to find optimum locations, negotiate with the owners, pay for the land, place the order to manufacture the equipment (some of these things do take several months to construct). We'd then have to build, and then bring in the equipment.

@ Ekt_bear: Don't get me wrong. If we poured $100 billion into it tomorrow, in 10 years time, we may be there. But if we plan on doing it one building block at a time, build 4 plants today, 4 tomorrow, then. . . we have to be in for the long haul.


Lastly, Don't forget that we still have to invest in Power distribution. We stil have to invest in means of getting coal, gas, or whatever we'll be using to the nearest and farthest power stations.

jensinmi:

As of today, very few Foreign Investors will be interested in pouring their billions into a place they consider unstable, like Nigeria.

This I disagree with. They would LOVE to pour money into it. . . if there were profit to be made. Right now, there is no profit to be made. . . due to existing government regulation.

Instability didn't prevent Nestle (or whatever chocolate company it was) from building a factory in Ogun, did it?

we still have to invest in Power distribution. We stil have to invest in means of getting coal, gas, or whatever we'll be using to the nearest and farthest power stations.

Ultimately, I don't want it to be "we" focused. I want it to be private industry looking to make a profit. I think implicitly you are assuming heavy FG/state involvement. . . ? I do agree, the more involved the government is, the less likely we will reach the goals.

Suppose Ekiti State tells an investor, "spend $Y billion on this power plant, and you'll make $0.03 in profit per kWh you sell", then I think that is an EXTREMELY compelling story. One that will allow you to get all the investment necessary to rapidly power the entire state in under 2 years.

Right now our story is, "come spend $Y billion on independent power projects, and you'll break even only if the FG continues supplying you with subsidized natural gas. Otherwise, you'll lose 6 cents for every kWh of energy you sell."

It is hard to get people to invest if there is no profit, and easy to get them to invest if there is profit.

Throw in the right stuff and see things work like magic. Enough study has been done in Nigeria for wind, solar etc. We have master plans already for coal and gas. The FG has heavy proposals on their table from big time American, Chinese, Indian and Nigerian companies. People are ready to take off. They are just waiting for a strong economic commitment and the word GO. It will be like magic when you start seeing things moving around.

My worry is when will the FG finally take up this responsibility. Whoever it is that can achieve this feat is the right man for Nigeria; be it Ribadu, GEJ, ABC or XYZ.

Nigeria is a failure in this twenty-first century we are still talking about the possibility of 24 hours electricity in 4 years,the simple solution is complete privatization from the head to the bottom because every public service in nigeria controlled completely or mainly by the government is cancerous e.g nitel, nipost,water supply,nepa,railway,roads,state education,observe the private sector substitutes and their performance, GSM, boreholes,private schools,private transportation,and GENERATORS AND INVERTERS. conclusion the government of nigeria is solely occupied with the oil money and how it is distributed. EVEN the management of the oil facilities if it wasnt for the private sector would be like nepa, as such government should allow the private sector to assume more responsibilities

I was having this same argument on some thread abt a month back, I said for Nigeria to reach an uninterrupted power supply (domestic and commercial), we need more than 100,000 MW of electricity, someone (debosky to be precise) told me that was in impossible, in fact we need 3x less than that I said ok. To reach that, an enormous investment would be required obviously.

9ijaMan:

I've always told you that your folks should have simply set ablaze the hard earned cash they spent on your education, 'cos it's ever more obvious that you wasted the years spent on getting educated. Now I understand clearly why Buhari said we need to establish technical school, for surely such places are meant for hammerheads like you. Unfortunately your poor folks have been fooled by you to still assume they have a child who's seen the four walls of a higher institution.

If the contest on NL were to be about curses and abuses, you probably will not lag behind as some have alluded already. Unfortunately, the issue of power is far beyond what a twonk like you can ever comprehend.

For emphasis, the cost of solar power generation on a large scale in Nigeria will dwarf the cost of producing the same amount of energy using fossil fuels and/or hydro energy. Anyways, how do I blame you? If a PhD wielding president is unable to explain the meaning of a simple term such as job security, how can Beaf have a clue about energy generation.

Interesting!

Am tired of GEJ i wish i dont change my mind about voting for him

@jensinmi: Previous attempt didn't seem to sway you. Let me sketch it out, see if you are convinced.

We'll use Ekiti State again as an example. Let's pretend Ekiti estimates that it 1000 MW will satisfy its electricity needs in 2 years time.

Consider a household in Ekiti. This household gets 6 hrs a day of electricity from PHCN. For the remaining 18 hours, the household must use generator, or nothing at all.

Let's say that the household consumes 18 hours of electricity a day. Thus, 33% of its electricity needs come from PHCN, the other 67% from a petrol generator.

PHCN charges $0.04 per kWh. At current prices, generating electricity from a petrol generator is roughly $0.35+ per kWh (I can justify this estimate if you'd like using current fuel prices.)

So on average, this household pays 24.67 cents per kWh for electricity.

Therefore, this household would gladly pay even a flat rate of $0.20 per kWh for electricity. This reduces their overall expenditure on energy
by approximately 19%.

Now, how does this price of $0.20 per kWh compare to other places in the world? Let's compare and constrast with some US states.

You can take a look at the average amount people paid in each state in the US here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/electricity/

You have a low of 5.61 cents per kWh in West Virginia (a state with enormous amounts of coal), up to a high of of 29.20 in Hawaii (basically
an island in the middle of the pacific which has much higher costs for everything.)

The average price in the US is 9.74 cents per kWh.

Note that this $0.20 per kWh which we are proposing for Ekiti State, would be the second highest on this list, therefore suggesting
huge room for profit for anyone who can generate electricity and charge this much. However, even this $0.20 per kWh figure represents a HUGE
financial savings for the state and its citizens.

So to assess how much interest a potential investor would have, we need to figure out how much it costs to generate each kWh.

You can estimate this from scratch. . . but fortunately, there is a lot of material already available which estimates these costs. Consider Table #1 here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source

We get a cost of 6.61 cents per kWh over the lifetime of the plant (what they call a combined cycle gas plant.)

Even if we somehow assume costs are 50% higher in Nigeria somehow (so ~10 cents per kWh), the power company will be making money hand over fist, grossing 10 cents per kWh.

So unless my #s are way off, I don't see how:
A) Power generation, if liberalized will not attract enormous interest from investos
B) The problem cannot be solved in a much shorter period of time than this 10 year scale. Imo, this should be a two year project, at least if localized on a state/regional basis.

Now, am I way off in my analysis? If so, where? Doouble the initial cost of building the plant and the foreign investor STILL makes an enormous
amount of cash. And the Ekiti citizen saves a lot of money, too.

Seems like a win-win to me.

Have said this severally ,we all know this people are only deceiving we young Nigerians.Let us wake up from our slumber and face realities,this people has NOTHING TO OFFER.All they have is just empty promises.I know with what is happening now we have to use our head and forget about government empty promises. Necessity is the mother of invention.It was wind power, later solar power now FUELLESS GENERATOR.WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? Check http://powertech.iceonlyconsult.com

lets keep our fingers crossed

El Rufai on electricity:

"El-Rufai: Electricity Tariff Needs to Go Up 400%" => http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/el-rufai-electricity-tariff-needs-to-go-up-400-/88421/

"Country Needs Billions for Electricity - El-Rufai" => http://allafrica.com/stories/201103250767.html

Key quote from latter article:

He also chided Nigerian elites whom he said would be willing to pay N60 per KWH for diesel powered generator in their homes, but would resist a cost reflective tariff rise which would in the long run save everyone more than N30 per KWH.

Quite in line with the estimates I posted above (I estimated 35 cents for gasoline gen, he estimates 40 cents for diesel gen)

He knows what needs to be done. Do other Nigerian leaders? Does GEJ?

ekt_bear:

El Rufai on electricity:

"El-Rufai: Electricity Tariff Needs to Go Up 400%" => http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/el-rufai-electricity-tariff-needs-to-go-up-400-/88421/

"Country Needs Billions for Electricity - El-Rufai" => http://allafrica.com/stories/201103250767.html

No problem, the market can start with the industries that can pay. Pilot projects can be started in the large industrial areas where companies will be able to pay for the service. From there we can expand. When liberalization begins to work, competition will drive down prices just like what happened in telecom.

Good luck cant safe Nigeria, your story aint new Mr President,  The messiah is not yet come. Shiit

Buhari is just blowing trumpet. To get people's votes, one cannot say "I will be a bad leader. Don't vote for me." But will say " vote for me. I will give you light, good roads, water, free education etc." All these to make people vote for him. Once he wins he becomes a devil just like his brother Abacha.