ISpiksDaTroof:
The Niger Delta cannot sneeze if GEJ loses. If they try it, you'll see that the same Govts that have refused to assist Nigeria over terrorism because of the criminals at the helm, will supply weapons and intelligence to ensure the oil supply continues. Who will fight the Nigerian Army on behalf of the Ijaws in that Region? The Ibos? Edos? Deltans? Calabar? Akwa Ibom? Who?! They will bear the brunt of the Nigerian Army alone. All the big talk you hear Asari and co making is because they know their final destination will be prison once a new Govt comes in and their crimes against Nigeria is exposed for the world to see.

THE WEST DOES NOT HAVE PERMANENT FRIENDS. THEY HAVE PERMANENT INTERESTS. THEY ARE AFTER THE BENJAMINS AND LIZZIES. We know which group will readily make these available to them. May God forbid such a situation.

If Jonathan wins there will be problem if Buhari wins there will also be problem, either way there will be problem

There is nothing in the world that will make Jonathan to loose the 2015 election. Unless God says so.

Sincere9gerian:
Guy, forget the propaganda, APC lost the 2015 elections long time ago. Here are the facts on ground at the moment:
Presently, PDP controls 21 states (22 states if you add pro-GEJ Anambra) while APC controls 14 states.
Secondly, APC is not sure of victory in some of its controlled states such as Nasarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Imo, Rivers, Kwara,etc.
PDP has footsolders that can influence substantial votes in APC dominant states such as kano, sokoto, etc
APC has almost zero influence in PDP dominant states such as Akwa-Ibom, Enugu, Delta, etc.
The presidential election will be conducted alongside the national assembly elections, meaning many voters will most likely along party lines.

PDP is also not sure of victory in many of its controlled states.,(katsina, bauchi, gombe, jigawa, kaduna, niger, kebbi, e.t.c

the 2015 battle is looking like it will be a repeat of the top two gladiators in the 2011 election. (jonathan vs Buhari) . It is too close to call, when you consider that Buhari will be contesting on a stronger platform this time around.

A few of the concerns raised by the OP are valid, but many are exaggerated.

atlwireles:


Based on your assumptions would you be buying, selling or holding, Nigeria Treasury Securities notes.

if same factors responsible for change in currency value equally affects Nigeria Treasury Securities (maybe inversely proportional) then, i will be selling. The political instability translates to fall in currency value. Business and investment sections on nairaland may have better outlook on things.

Justcash:


THE WEST DOES NOT HAVE PERMANENT FRIENDS. THEY HAVE PERMANENT INTERESTS. THEY ARE AFTER THE BENJAMINS AND LIZZIES. We know which group will readily make these available to them. May God forbid such a situation.

The Ijaw group is too minuscule in size to even envision challenging the Nigerian state. They simply to not have the manpower. And when it comes down to the come down, they will realize they have no friends as their present "Ally" will remember '67-70 and leave them to their fate.

Justcash:


That is not possible in the FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA. Check your history.

No, you check your history. My history and yours are very different.

Your President tried for tenure elongation just 3weeks after he was President.

He tried again a year later begging for it to be changed from 6yrs to 7yrs.

He has very recently started bandying around "2yrs more plus election postponement", that has failed to catch traction.

If you think PDP will be the majority party next year, with GEJ as President, then in 2019 they'll willingly give up power, then you might not be as smart as you think yourself to be.

GEJ is borrowing straight out of the play books of Paul Biya and Yuweri Musevini.

tomakint:
@ Op I love your type of dreams if all humans can be compared to animals I will likened you to be a bat (sleeping in a downward position) I am surprised that you fail to factor in the reality that 'Jonathan will most likely win in 2015' this is common knowledge. Well, I will encourage you to keep dreaming, afterall 'dreams' are free!
Bottomline: Buhari+Atiku+Tambuwal are not enough to unseat Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, it's daytime already stop dreaming and feeling giddy!

Jonathan is going back to the creek.

ISpiksDaTroof:
The Ijaw group is too minuscule in size to even envision challenging the Nigerian state. They simply to not have the manpower. And when it comes down to the come down, they will realize they have no friends as their present "Ally" will remember '67-70 and leave them to their fate.

MEND stands for "MOVEMENT FOR THE EMANCIPATION OF THE NIGER-DELTA". Membership of this group includes, IJAWS, URHOBOS, ITSEKIRIS, EFIK, IBIBIO AND IGBOS. MEND is beyond the IJAWS.

If they are backed by a strong political interest, they can wreak an extraordinary havoc on Nigeria's economic wellbeing. The oil resources in the Niger-delta is their strength. Take it away, they are more or less like BOKO HARAM.

ISpiksDaTroof:
The Niger Delta cannot sneeze if GEJ loses. If they try it, you'll see that the same Govts that have refused to assist Nigeria over terrorism because of the criminals at the helm, will supply weapons and intelligence to ensure the oil supply continues. Who will fight the Nigerian Army on behalf of the Ijaws in that Region? The Ibos? Edos? Deltans? Calabar? Akwa Ibom? Who?! They will bear the brunt of the Nigerian Army alone. All the big talk you hear Asari and co making is because they know their final destination will be prison once a new Govt comes in and their crimes against Nigeria is exposed for the world to see.

america has stopped importing fuel from Nigeria. So, they won't even give the military a pin to aid the fight against MEND. They would rather aid MEND and make secret deals with them to keep the oil coming at cheaper rate.
You can mark my words, oil will soon lose its relevance in world economy and as a result, only very few countries will be in dire need of nigeria's oil to want to aid her military. 2015, 2016 and 2017 versions of automobiles will be running on hybrid engines (electricity and fuel). Many of them will work 40 miles on electricity before changing to fuel. In the future, the 40 miles will increase until electricity control will be total in automobiles and fuel consumption and its world demand will be drastically reduced. Helping Nigeria will be so unprofitable that no world power will want to invest in our military or give us aid in fighting MEND.

ISpiksDaTroof:
No, you check your history. My history and yours are very different.

Your President tried for tenure elongation just 3weeks after he was President.

He tried again a year later begging for it to be changed from 6yrs to 7yrs.

He has very recently started bandying around "2yrs more plus election postponement", that has failed to catch traction.

If you think PDP will be the majority party next year, with GEJ as President, then in 2019 they'll willingly give up power, then you might not be as smart as you think yourself to be.

GEJ is borrowing straight out of the play books of Paul Bila and Yuweri Musevini.

You vindicated my response to you. My question to you is, "why didn't GEJ succeed in implementing his planned tenure extensions?" Answer that, then you'll know why I told you that a life president is impossible in Nigeria.

Sincere9gerian:
Guy, forget the propaganda, APC lost the 2015 elections long time ago. Here are the facts on ground at the moment:
Presently, PDP controls 21 states (22 states if you add pro-GEJ Anambra) while APC controls 14 states.
Secondly, APC is not sure of victory in some of its controlled states such as Nasarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Imo, Rivers, Kwara,etc.
PDP has footsolders that can influence substantial votes in APC dominant states such as kano, sokoto, etc
APC has almost zero influence in PDP dominant states such as Akwa-Ibom, Enugu, Delta, etc.
The presidential election will be conducted alongside the national assembly elections, meaning many voters will most likely along party lines.

you can forget about Kwara and Lagos. APC will rule in those places.

Justcash:


MEND stands for "MOVEMENT FOR THE EMANCIPATION OF THE NIGER-DELTA". Membership of this group includes, IJAWS, URHOBOS, ITSEKIRIS, EFIK, IBIBIO AND IGBOS. MEND is beyond the IJAWS.
.

Oh, really? Please do us all a favor and take a quick survey on which members of those tribal groups will willingly tote guns on behalf of MEND in a confrontation with the Nigerian Army.

Keep deceiving yourself.

Justcash:


You vindicated my response to you. My question to you is, "why didn't GEJ succeed in implementing his planned tenure extensions?" Answer that, then you'll know why I told you that a life president is impossible in Nigeria.

Because he hasn't crippled the opposition hard enough. If he wins, most of the men in APC today will flee to PDP leaving Buhari, Oyegun, Tinubu and co to their faith. Nigeria will become a one-party state. Once that happens Nigeria immediately becomes Cameroon and Uganda...until full scale war breaks out.

If you think GEJ won't try for tenure elongation once more, then you need to wake up from your slumber.

ISpiksDaTroof:


Oh, really? Please do us all a favor and take a quick survey on which members of those tribal groups will willingly tote guns on behalf of MEND in a confrontation with the Nigerian Army.

Keep deceiving yourself.

Given the outcome of the last MEND war (amnesty bounty), do you think it will be difficult to get boys from Niger-delta back to the creeks? Be careful about what you wish for. I pray that no militant group should ever return or emerge.

atlwireles:


You are always a very stup1d ediot.

Must you resort to insult? If any disturbance is noticed in the Niger Delta after Jonathan's loss you will see the Nigerian Army being used to quell it. You will then realize that the seemingly weakness of soldiers in quelling Boko Haram is as a result of the weakness of Jonathan. I'm sure you wouldn't want what Obasanjo did in Odi to repeat itself again. I pray against it.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Because he hasn't crippled the opposition hard enough. If he wins, most of the men in APC today will flee to PDP leaving Buhari, Oyegun, Tinubu and co to their faith. Nigeria will become a one-party state. Once that happens Nigeria immediately becomes Cameroon and Uganda...until full scale war breaks out.

If you think GEJ won't try for tenure elongation once more, then you need to wake up from your slumber.

....and other ambitious politicians in PDP will succumb cowardly for him to be a life president? The leaders from North, East and West of Nigeria in PDP will just fold their hands and stare at him? This is why I said that you should go and look at Nigeria's history. Even almighty Abacha, with his absolute power, fell like a pack of cards.

Omimah:

Must you resort to insult? If any disturbance is noticed in the Niger Delta after Jonathan's loss you will see the Nigerian Army being used to quell it. You will then realize that the seemingly weakness of soldiers in quelling Boko Haram is as a result of the weakness of Jonathan. I'm sure you wouldn't want Obasanjo did in Odi to repeat itself again.

You are too dumb, to even reply any of my comments on this forum. Try one of your other monikers. where igbos hate is the agenda. look for your tribal trolls and head out to that thread.

Justcash:


Given the outcome of the last MEND war (amnesty bounty), do you think it will be difficult to get boys from Niger-delta back to the creeks? Be careful about what you wish for. I pray that no militant group should ever return or emerge.

Niger-Delta won't do that to itself. Your oil is almost worthless. We don't buy from you anymore, Prices are dwindling and demand is low. If you blow up your own pipelines because you lost an election you will be worse off. All I know is, a determined Govt will deal ruthlessly with a bunch of militants hiding in creeks if they want to. Do not compare thinking leaders and those bereft of ideas. OBJ, Yar Adua and co agreed to amnesty because they are corrupt too and they needed the kickbacks from the Oil companies so they had to tread lightly. A Govt that doesn't seek or collect bribes will tear the so called militants apart in less than 14days because they will be treated as enemies of the Nigerian state.

Anyway, like I said, no ethnic group will sacrifice it's members for the sake of the perceived grievance of an obvious criminal gang.

Justcash:


....and other ambitious politicians in PDP will succumb cowardly for him to be a life president? The leaders from North, East and West of Nigeria in PDP will just fold their hands and stare at him? This is why I said that you should go and look at Nigeria's history. Even almighty Abacha, with his absolute power, fell like a pack of cards.

Abacha almost succeeded. Actually, he basically succeeded but for his death. Wait until next year when you might not have an opposition party any longer and then all I'm saying will become clearer to you.

Omimah:

Must you resort to insult? If any disturbance is noticed in the Niger Delta after Jonathan's loss you will see the Nigerian Army being used to quell it. You will then realize that the seemingly weakness of soldiers in quelling Boko Haram is as a result of the weakness of Jonathan. I'm sure you wouldn't want Obasanjo did in Odi to repeat itself again.

Did you notice I ignore him all the time. He's an attention seeker. That's all he knows.

Justcash:


MEND stands for "MOVEMENT FOR THE EMANCIPATION OF THE NIGER-DELTA". Membership of this group includes, IJAWS, URHOBOS, ITSEKIRIS, EFIK, IBIBIO AND IGBOS. MEND is beyond the IJAWS.

If they are backed by a strong political interest, they can wreak an extraordinary havoc on Nigeria's economic wellbeing. The oil resources in the Niger-delta is their strength. Take it away, they are more or less like BOKO HARAM.

MEND is majorly made up of Ijaw men. Give me the name of one of their "generales" who is not Ijaw. Asari Dokubo, Ateke Tom, Boyloaf, Henry Orkar Tompolo, Late John Togo, etc are all Ijaw men from the Ijaw-speaking parts of Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states. As I said somewhere, when the full force of the Nigerian Army is metted on the Niger Delta, you will realize that the defeat they face in the hands of Boko Haram is as a result of how their C-in-C, Jonathan has chosen to use them. The terrain of the Niger Delta, a creek won't be understood by only the militants. The soldiers also do. Benjamin Adekunle fought in the creeks during the Civil War.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Niger-Delta won't do that to itself. Your oil is almost worthless. We don't buy from you anymore, Prices are dwindling and demand is low. If you blow up your own pipelines because you lost an election you will be worse off. All I know is, a determined Govt will deal ruthlessly with a bunch of militants hiding in creeks if they want to. Do not compare thinking leaders and those bereft of ideas. OBJ, Yar Adua and co agreed to amnesty because they are corrupt too and they needed the kickbacks from the Oil companies so they had to tread lightly. A Govt that doesn't seek or collect bribes will tear the so called militants apart in less than 14days because they will be treated as enemies of the Nigerian state.

Anyway, like I said, no ethnic group will sacrifice it's members for the sake of the perceived grievance of an obvious criminal gang.

You are obviously over-rating the level of conscience of these militants. If they are backed by powerful political influence, the kind of havoc that they will unleash will be unimaginable. They are used to military actions against their own people.

Have you been to the Niger-delta creeks before? Take a trip down there and see why soldiers were killed like amateurs. It will not be easy to contain them. It will all end in another round of political empowerment and economic bounty in the form of amnesty, if it ever happens again.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Abacha almost succeeded. Actually, he basically succeeded but for his death. Wait until next year when you might not have an opposition party any longer and then all I'm saying will become clearer to you.

Abacha "almost" succeeded until he was "eliminated". The web of political interests in Nigeria is too complex for one individual to stay in power for too long.

Justcash:


You are obviously over-rating the level of conscience of these militants. If they are backed by powerful political influence, the kind of havoc that they will unleash will be unimaginable. They are used to military actions against their own people.

Have you been to the Niger-delta creeks before? Take a trip down there and see why soldiers were killed like amateurs. It will not be easy to contain them. It will all end in another round of political empowerment and economic bounty in the form of amnesty, if it ever happens again.

Overrate?! Have I taken a trip there? I should be asking you those questions. Do I sound like I'm talking of suppositions. I worked with your Govt on issues concerning the area in the past.

Anyway, bookmark all I've said. 2015-2019 is around the corner.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Overrate?! Have I taken a trip there? I should be asking you those questions. Do I sound like I'm talking of suppositions. I worked with your Govt on issues concerning the area in the past.

Anyway, bookmark all I've said. 2015-2019 is around the corner.

If you have been to the creeks, then your point of view (ease of dealing with MEND in a conflict) is surprising. I don't pray for conflict in 2015-2019. Just know that if MEND comes up again, it will indeed be a turning point in Nigeria's history.

Omimah:

MEND is majorly made up of Ijaw men. Give me the name of one of their "generales" who is not Ijaw. Asari Dokubo, Ateke Tom, Boyloaf, Henry Orkar Tompolo, Late John Togo, etc are all Ijaw men from the Ijaw-speaking parts of Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states. As I said somewhere, when the full force of the Nigerian Army is metted on the Niger Delta, you will realize that the defeat they face in the hands of Boko Haram is as a result of how their C-in-C, Jonathan has chosen to use them. The terrain of the Niger Delta, a creek won't be understood by only the militants. The soldiers also do. Benjamin Adekunle fought in the creeks during the Civil War.

Yeah, you are right. Your use of "Majorly" shows that you know that other ethnic groups are present in MEND. The Nigerian army cannot defeat MEND. We better not pray for any conflict with them. I won't take part in mentioning names.

Justcash:


Yeah, you are right. Your use of "Majorly" shows that you know that other ethnic groups are present in MEND. The Nigerian army cannot defeat MEND. We better not pray for any conflict with them. I won't take part in mentioning names.

Give me the name of any MEND leader that is not Ijaw.

ISpiksDaTroof:
Did you notice I ignore him all the time. He's an attention seeker. That's all he knows.

I fear for what would be of the Niger Delta if any group tries to disturb the government of Buhari.

Omimah:

Give me the name of any MEND leader that is not Ijaw.

Sorry man, I have no interest in doing that.

atlwireles:


You are too dumb, to even reply any of my comments on this forum. Try one of your other monikers. where igbos hate is the agenda. look for your tribal trolls and head out to that thread.

Is that all you can say? You're an Urhobo Niger Deltan, try to organize any movement against Buhari when he wins and see what will be left of you.

Justcash:


Sorry man, I have no interest in doing that.

You probably do not know any or there are none.