Justcash:


No, my intention is not to instill fear and eulogize MEND. I don't believe anybody that wants change should be scared of the resistance that will come with it. There will always be resistance to change. If my piece made you scared, then you need to have a rethink about the foundation of your political orientation.

Justcash:


That is not possible in the FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA. Check your history.

Justcash:


I like your profound optimism, but I really am not affiliated to any political position in 2015. However, as a political and economic analyst with a strong understanding of the dynamics in Nigerian politics, I can assure you that GEJ's liberal political approach (commendable) has erased the power of incumbency in the political calculations of 2015 general elections.

For your information, there are also consequences (mild) if the North fails to grab power in 2015. It is a political stalemate.

Your bat description is unnecessary.

Justcash:


I like the confidence with which you have written. Unfortunately, the dynamics of political backed militancy is way beyond conventional warfare tactics. Boko Haram embark on suicide missions and kill civilians em mass, MEND blow up pipelines that threatens the economic sustainability of the nation. Buhari is not more rugged and heartless than IBB, ABACHA AND OBJ that could not destroy the evolution of MEND from tiny MOSOP and other harmless splinter groups. Like I have told others, you better be careful about what you wish for.

Justcash:
I am writing this piece without political affiliation. I foresee some horrifying occurrences if Jonathan is voted out of power in 2015.

1. AN ENERGIZED MEND WILL RETURN TO THE CREEKS WITH RENEWED VIGOR TO DESTROY NIGERIA ONCE AND FOR ALL

2. I ADVISE NIGERIANS TO BRACE UP FOR ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, BECAUSE IN A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE LOSS OF GEJ, OIL PRODUCTION WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO AND NIGERIA'S ECONOMY WILL TAKE A TUMBLE

3. THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL BE BUSY FIGHTING MILITANCY FOR THE DURATION OF THEIR TENURE, JUST TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY AND FIND FUNDS TO EMBARK ON DEVELOPMENTAL PROJECTS

4. THE WAR IN THE NORTH EAST WILL BE A JOKE COMPARED TO THE WAR THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE NIGER-DELTA. HAVING LEARNT FROM BOKO HARAM, MEND WILL CAPTURE AND CLAIM VITAL (OIL HUBS) TERRITORIES

5. THE DEBT PROFILE OF NIGERIA WILL INCREASE TO AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL DUE TO GOVERNMENT'S RESORT TO BORROWING AND SHORT-FALLS IN THE ECONOMY

6. NIGERIA'S GDP WILL TAKE A TUMBLE

7. THE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION BY THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL BE VIEWED FROM AN ETHNO-RELIGIOUS ANGLE AS A WITCH-HUNT, AND ETHNO-RELIGIOUS DIVISIONS WILL WIDEN

8. THE THREAT OF DIVISION WILL BE MORE APPARENT THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN AS COUNTER-MILITANCY SOLUTIONS WILL BE ADOPTED BY NIGERIAN ETHNIC GROUPS

9. I SEE A NEW REGIONAL AND POLITICAL SYSTEM BEING PROPOSED TO REDUCE ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS BASED SUSPICION, WHICH WILL BE OPPOSED BY A CERTAIN REGION

10. NIGERIA WILL BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

Most Nigerians don't know how dicey the political situation in Nigeria is. Nigeria is in a stalemate. 2015 will indeed redefine Nigeria in all ramifications. I PRAY FOR MY DEAR COUNTRY.

nuclearboy:
All the threats by the windbag Dokubo are just hot air. Boko Haram achieved what they did because the current president does not have the respect of his Generals, allowed them to steal all the monies meant to inspire the fighting men and make them comfortable. So what did anyone expect? One single battle-hardened battalion from 1 Div has changed the face of the war and BH has again mostly become hit and run. Thats because officers who "enjoyed" the war sent the newbies (poorly armed and with zero coordination) against BH

A Buhari who is revered by the military as the ONLY Man ever to lead Nigeria to war against a foreign country, who practically took over Chad in hours, who will not allow officers steal whats due to his men and who is decisive and clean CANNOT be compared to a GEJ whose generals bought bulletproof vests that couldn't stop stones from a catapult YET who kept quiet because he was afraid of losing support

Eventually, the Asaris will run away or kowtow. Yes, they (Delta militants) will stop Nigeria for 3 weeks but its a cut your nose situation - because they will lose their families, lifestyles, and futures to the environmental devastation of blowing up everything. They will not be welcome anyplace on earth and if you couldn't hide from OBJ, is it GMB you wish to hide from? Their mothers and children will stop them anyway

Its always just been noise. I like the arming though - they have added to Nigeria's stockpiles because IF Buhari, everyone will be disarmed and that rightly!

Way I see it, what matters is that whoever wins TRULY has Nigeria behind him like Jonathan did in 2011. Any ethnicity opposed to a TRUE WINNER will bend or break

Justcash:


This post is not meant to change anyone's voting pattern. It is a revelation of some obvious occurrences that will emerge as a result of a loss by GEJ in 2015. In fact, it will be a shame for anyone to change their plan to honor a candidate with their votes based on this thread. However, if you want change, you must be ready for the consequences of change.

Amnesty is a farce. Militants (generally) make more money from illegal activities in the creeks than from the stipends from government. It is the promise of political control that stemmed their activities.

CyberWolf:
The issue is that some people are shouting change change,but don't want to pay the ultimate price...For change to occur,it has to be bought and paid for by people's life,especially the protagonist..You cannot fight for change and expect to enjoy it,no it doesn't happen that way..For change to occur,people must give up their life in exchange for the change so that their loved ones will enjoy it..

rasojie:
Reading this post this morning. I cannot but wonder how deep we have fallen. It is a shame that the 15 years misrule by the PDP Has eaten deep into our brains that we now belive that we cant have a working and functional govt. This a more reason why we need change. NIGERIANS NEED TO SEE THE GLORY OF DEMOCRACY. WE HAVE BEEN TAKEN FOR GRANTED FI TOO LONG. Its time to see a working and functional Nigeria. I am tired of seeing 'cluelessness' being displayed in high places. Truth is we have fallen so deep. Tired of this horror movie called PDP.... ..... I need change. Thats all

Tokunbohkinibig:
@@Chukwudi44 and Justcash, let's try to be realistic when it comes to war, there is nothing like Civilian in a war to be honest. Forget about the world politics and propaganda when it suits them. Civilian will always and continue to be used as fighting tools in the hands of their rulers. Let's quickly take a look at second world war; pearl harbour to be precise. Japanese army attacked pearl harbour not U.S mainland but what was U.S response to this attack? I guess your answer is as good as mine - Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Nagasaki was estimated to have about 263,000 people just before it was nuked and these are civilians not soldiers. The same thing repeated itself in Hiroshima with total population of 250,000 civilians.

Civilians in Niger delta/any region ll continue to bear the brunt of insurgency in their respective regions just like what is obtainable in the North east at moment and that has been happening for the past 5yrs.

Frankly speaking, without civilians' support, MEND can't never wage a war against Nigeria state and succeed. No group of people would be able to wage a war against any government without help from their host community. Realistically, It ll be xtremely difficult for OPC to war in ABA or anywhere in South east cos Igbos populace would easily identify them and deal with them mercilessly cos OPC is not fighting for their causes. The same fate would befall Massob in South west too if Massob try anything in South west too; that is power of civilians when they are not involved in anything.

AnanseK:


I'm surprised you don't see this attempt coming. What was the national
Conference for?

ba7man:
Daft mend will blow up pipelines thereby poluting the soil, water and air of their homelands while getting rich bunkering the oil.

They'll also stupidly use the money they get to invest in Lagos and Abuja at the expense of Niger delta states.

Justcash:


GEJ does not have any intention of being a life president. He is aware that he cannot be one. Even if he decides to do it, he will not succeed because Nigeria is not a type of country that a single individual can lord over for life. Those that have tried it are no longer breathing.

nuclearboy:


The difference "in this case" is that such would be an outright declaration of war. If you consider what I wrote, I clearly stated that what matters is the winner being TRULY the choice of the nation. In effect, if Nigerians truly want Buhari and then Dokubo says "no, I prefer and insist" on Jonathan. Its the same if we want Jonathan and any Hausa-Fulani (as BH did) says "No, I prefer a muslim". Refer to 2011 and even today. Boko Haram declared war on Nigeria but only got so far because funds for the war effort went into private pockets (there is even a possibility that some didn't even get to the generals) and because government itself politicized everything.

A serious leader with a military hierarchy alive to its role will wipe out any dissent. Please remember that war isn't just rifles - ND Militants are armed (we all know) but Automatic rifles, Machine guns and RPGs are the least in terms of arsenal. If fighting attrition warfare, fine (for a while) but we all just saw what true warfare is like at Konduga. Note also BH has Sambisa aside 3 massive states (land size) and were killing their own people more than anyone else - they had space to roam in. I doubt Dokubo and co will use N-Deltans the same way and the entire region is too small for boko-like tactics.

All in all, reality will soon strike

Asoozy:


But he can. The only group that always agitate against injustice is the Yoruba. All he need do is get rid of those ones. Without the Yorubas He will get what he wants.

Justcash:


I don't think it is only Yorubas that agitate against injustice. It was Northerners that saw through the elimination of Abacha. The interests in Nigerian politics is just too complex for one man to overcome. It reflects in the confusion that is normally faced by Nigerian leaders. Too many hands in the cooking pot.

Asoozy:


Tell me why the northerners executed Abacha.

Justcash:


Executed is a harsh word to use. Elimination is better. Diverse interests and fear of an uncontrollable Despot was the chief reason among many. That, however, is a story for another thread.

Tokunbohkinibig:
I have said this before and i ll repeat it again, MEND had the support of people outside and within that region before Jonathan became a Nigerian president. People within and outside that region felt that they were marginalised and abandon over the years but having been given presidency and amnesty for the past five years has now changed the whole equation against MEND as at today.

Thousands of souls ll be lost Unprecedentedly in that region if MEND try anything funny and I can see these rich militants disappearing to thin air cos of their wealth, they wouldn't want to die like chickens. Niger delta ll be the battlefield; the entire region will turn out to be a mini Mogadishu in Somalia. Those Hausa/fulani soldiers.......

If MEND goes to war with Nigeria state, it ll be disastrous for MEND and d entire region cos Nigeria government will not only deal with MEND alone but the entire region. Trust me, Odi ll be a child play to what would happen this time around.

Unlike previous government, the new government ll ruthlessly deal with MEND having learnt from their past history and boko haram insurgency.

Gbawe:
@OP

No disrespect, but your entire analysis is ridiculed by one point you fundamentally misread. If GEJ loses to a landslide opposition victory, then I would really think it would be virtually impossible for MEND to ferment trouble. It would be obvious to the entire world that GEJ was not prevented from running. It was Nigerians who rejected him overwhelmingly. What would their agitation be based upon and who would support an undemocratic refusal to accept that Nigerians in the majority have clearly chosen their President even if that man is not GEJ?

Never forget that, In the past, it could be argued somewhat meritoriously that the MEND cause was just. You are now remaking them in the image of politically compromised and born-to-rule criminals. There would be no sympathy for MEND under such a drastic 'facelift' and completely revised modus operandi. Most Nigerians would overwhelmingly support that the group be crushed since it now only wants to be anarchic for the sake of it and for the political fortune of one man rather than because of any 'injustice' committed against a people or their land. No one nowhere would stand for a 're-branded' MEND, acting as a political militia group for GEJ and his leadership ambition, blackmailing Nigeria.

The rest of your points, like that above you get very wrong, just show a predilection for scaremongering not predicated on solid cause-and-effect logic.

Asoozy:


Potatoe -potato.

Uncontrollable despot you say? Now tell me what would have brought that about.

No, let's discuss it here, it's all related.

You're not trying to shy away from the true facts here, are you now?

Give honour to whom it's due abeg!

ISpiksDaTroof:
The Niger Delta cannot sneeze if GEJ loses. If they try it, you'll see that the same Govts that have refused to assist Nigeria over terrorism because of the criminals at the helm, will supply weapons and intelligence to ensure the oil supply continues. Who will fight the Nigerian Army on behalf of the Ijaws in that Region? The Ibos? Edos? Deltans? Calabar? Akwa Ibom? Who?! They will bear the brunt of the Nigerian Army alone. All the big talk you hear Asari and co making is because they know their final destination will be prison once a new Govt comes in and their crimes against Nigeria is exposed for the world to see.