jason14:
ah na wa o 2030! God thats so long

how far do you think they've gone?

This EAC project will require a lot of patience oo... you can't build a world class city in a year...even the great Dubai took many decades before it was fully fictional... EAC started around 2009 with sand filling of the lagoon while construction started in 2013 .. so far,they have completed about 3 skyscrapers... over 25 roads and bridges... water is already running in the city....

rvp2017:
I know I vowed not to make any more comments until 2019 - but I had to do this - as I read some kenyan investment take on our gov 5-yr plan.The giant with their gigantic banks - are doing far worse than kenya in mortage

https://cytonnreport.com/research/affordable-housing-in-kenya-cytonn-weekly-162018-1#focus-of-the-week
Anyway the Big plan for next yr as far as our gov goes
Food and Nutrition Security – The government plans to achieve 100.0% food security through enhanced large-scale production, boosting SME productivity and reduction of food costs,
Manufacturing – The aim is to grow the contribution of manufacturing to GDP from 9.2% in 2016 to 20.0% by 2022 through establishment of industrial parks, Special Economic Zones and implementation of policies to boost processing of textiles, leather, oil, gas, construction material, foods, fish, iron and steel,
Affordable Healthcare – This aims to increase the current universal health care coverage in Kenya from 36.0% to 100.0% by 2022 through scaling up NHIF uptake, increased budgetary allocation to health and adoption of low cost service delivery models, and,
Affordable Housing – The government plans to deliver 1 mn units over the next 5-years out of which, 20.0% will be social housing while 80.0% will be affordable housing.

And what does the future portend.

Finally the last 15yrs the kenyan economy has grown from strength to strength - from 13B to now 80B (it could be more when it get re-based); I don't see what can stop this growth; infact I see it accelerating as we transition demographically (for the first time those under 0-5 yrs are less than those 5-10yrs!!!) and our pop growth rate is dropping to 2.5% - couple with mobile commerce & mobile banking (m-pesa effect) I only see kenya growing bigger and bigger.

My prediction for kenya GDP - based on the last 15yrs - the fact that economy is so well-diversified & the growth so broad-base (no one sector) - is that Kenya GDP will hit $100B in 2020 (this will be apparent when GDP will be rebased around 2011/2012- current base yr is 2009). And it will hit $200B around 2026. $300B around 2030 - at that point - Kenya will be about equal to South Africa level now ( Of course South Africa will have move to around $400 plus ). But around 2035- kenya and South Africa will be equal. It may sound crazy!!! But we shall see - kenya economy is about just started - it's foundation is solid!

Nigeria future is gloomy!

I wish I could say the same about Nigeria - it already lost 100B since they rebased - now 400B - and are happy with 1% growth rate - and will fall or grow with Oil. I don't see any great future with oil - with climate change and all electric vehicles - Nigeria better prepare for world where demand for oil will be very very low. Nigeria better wake up - I know they haven't prepared for this - the Saudis and Norwegians will be set for life - they have nearly a trillion dollars just banked for the rainy day!! But Nigeria have squander their oil petro-dollars and the party is coming to end. Without Oil - & without a strong economic base - Nigeria state will go into turmoil - it's best bet is for military junta to take over like they did in Brazil (when shit hit the fan - before the current re-awakening) - otherwise it may splinter into 3-4 countries(the muslim north, the yoruba & related, and the biafra).

Kenya GDP - past and my own projection.
2002 13
2003 15
2004 17
2005 19
2006 27
2007 32
2008 36
2009 37
2010 40
2011 42
2012 50
2013 55
2014 62
2015 64
2016 71
2017 75
2018 80
2019 90
2020 101
2021 113
2022 127
2023 142
2024 159
2025 178
2026 199
2027 223
2028 250
2029 280
2030 314
2031 352
2032 394
2033 441
2034 494
2035 553

I'm sure,in 2002, u made a projection of $100b by 2018

While some deluded fellow is making some whack predictions that his country's economy will surpass Nigeria and South Africa's by 2030, below is the world economic forum's projection of the world economy by 2030 ..

32. Netherlands — $1.08 trillion
31. Colombia — $1.111 trillion
30. South Africa — $1.148 trillion
29. Vietnam — $1.303 trillion
28. Bangladesh — $1.324 trillion
27. Argentina — $1.342 trillion
26. Poland — $1.505 trillion
25. Malaysia — $1.506 trillion
24. Philippines — $1.615 trillion
23. Australia — $1.663 trillion
22. Thailand — $1.732 trillion
21. Nigeria — $1.794 trillion
20. Pakistan — $1.868 trillion
19. Egypt — $2.049 trillion
18. Canada — $2.141 trillion
17. Spain — $2.159 trillion
16. Iran — $2.354 trillion
15. Italy — $2.541 trillion
14. South Korea — $2.651 trillion
13. Saudi Arabia — $2.755 trillion
12. Turkey — $2.996 trillion
11. France — $3.377 trillion
10. United Kingdom — $3.638 trillion
9. Mexico — $3.661 trillion
8. Brazil — $4.439 trillion
7. Germany — $4.707 trillion
6. Russia — $4.736 trillion
5. Indonesia — $5.424 trillion
4. Japan — $5.606 trillion
3. India — $19.511 trillion
2. United States — $23.475 trillion
1. China — $38.008 trillion

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/a-prediction-the-worlds-most-powerful-economies-in-2030

Shervydman,you were right... these people dunno sh1t about economics

Daejoyoung:

Exaggerations again. 2% of production in Africa, how do you arrive at your stats? What is the 98% production in Africa, Mr?
Give me facts and statistics, not figures you just feel like quoting.

I say only 2% of the inventions in africa are achieved by nigerians.
nigeria rank 128 in the world’s innovative.
Global Innovation Index 2016 nigeria rank 114.
Zimbabwe is now in front

http://www.myafricanow.com/10-most-technologically-advanced-countries-in-africa/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/countries-worlds-innovative
http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2016-intro5.pdf

Heck! by 2030, Kent will still be far behind Lagos...



https://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/27/business/gallery/nigeria-1-trillion-gdp-2030/index.html


https://qz.com/383388/nigeria-is-the-only-african-country-whose-gdp-is-projected-to-reach-1-trillion-by-2030/

NairobiWalker:


It doesn't matter what some irrelevant fool pretends to see us as, what matters to us is what we really are and we'll never allow anyone to put us down as long as we know the truth.

if you know who you are then y are u and ur brothers here in nairaland trying to make your country relevant?

why are u here trying to prove to we Nigerians that Kenya is "better than Nigeria"
if you knew who you were and your countries relevance in Africa and world , u wudnt come here trying so hard to make your country relevant

america is an example of a country that know who they are, you can never see Americans arguing with Germans or Britons on whos country is better , becos they know their countries relevance and importance to d world

Danielnino00:





This EAC project will require a lot of patience oo... you can't build a world class city in a year...even the great Dubai took many decades before it was fully fictional... EAC started around 2009 with sand filling of the lagoon while construction started in 2013 .. so far,they have completed about 3 skyscrapers... over 25 roads and bridges... water is already running in the city....

there even 24/7 electricity there .

I don't know y dey have not started hosting events there , like this bbnaija stuff and award shows

Another wonderful one guys



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n983AAMbUa0

Danielnino00:
While some deluded fellow is making some whack predictions that his country's economy will surpass Nigeria and South Africa's by 2030, below is the world economic forum's projection of the world economy by 2030 ..

32. Netherlands — $1.08 trillion
31. Colombia — $1.111 trillion
30. South Africa — $1.148 trillion
29. Vietnam — $1.303 trillion
28. Bangladesh — $1.324 trillion
27. Argentina — $1.342 trillion
26. Poland — $1.505 trillion
25. Malaysia — $1.506 trillion
24. Philippines — $1.615 trillion
23. Australia — $1.663 trillion
22. Thailand — $1.732 trillion
21. Nigeria — $1.794 trillion
20. Pakistan — $1.868 trillion
19. Egypt — $2.049 trillion
18. Canada — $2.141 trillion
17. Spain — $2.159 trillion
16. Iran — $2.354 trillion
15. Italy — $2.541 trillion
14. South Korea — $2.651 trillion
13. Saudi Arabia — $2.755 trillion
12. Turkey — $2.996 trillion
11. France — $3.377 trillion
10. United Kingdom — $3.638 trillion
9. Mexico — $3.661 trillion
8. Brazil — $4.439 trillion
7. Germany — $4.707 trillion
6. Russia — $4.736 trillion
5. Indonesia — $5.424 trillion
4. Japan — $5.606 trillion
3. India — $19.511 trillion
2. United States — $23.475 trillion
1. China — $38.008 trillion

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/a-prediction-the-worlds-most-powerful-economies-in-2030

Shervydman,you were right... these people dunno sh1t about economics

I doubt this report though, I don’t see Iran and Egypt becoming larger than Nigeria

jason14:
ah na wa o 2030! God thats so long

how far do you think they've gone?

We have to wait o! It’s a world class project.
They’re about 60% done on reclamation of land from the sea. I believe roads, power and water are already on most parts of the current reclaimed land. They also haven’t finished the canals, plus the marina is yet to be completed. All we’re waiting for is for investors to build their buildings, plus recession slowed down the building. Hopefully as the economy grows without interruption, we should see more buildings coming on ground.

But Nigeria needs more than 1 world class city. I don’t know what’s going on in centenary city in Abuja.. be like say politicians and corruption dey stall am.

The last say 15yrs - most of growth in sub-sahara - was down to commodities price rally (oil barrel @100 dollars) and telecommunication - the next 15yrs will be harsh for economies that depend on oil (Nigeria & Angola) - because Oil is going to sell for as low as 10 dollars (when Nigeria depend on it for 95% of it's revenue/taxes) - and digital revolution in finance+ICT like is happening in kenya will drive the economy forward. In Nigeria mobile money has simply refused to grow - stuck at 1% -5yrs later - while in Ghana they are hot on the heels of kenya - although Kenya is so faaaar ahead - just the same way it's ahead in internet/broandband. Therefore my bold prediction are that kenya will continue to grow at very high rates...while Nigeria will continue to regress with Oil. They are simply unable to shake off the oil curse/dutch disease.

.

nwoke37:


I doubt this report though, I see Iran and Egypt becoming larger than Nigeria

jason14:
if you know who you are then y are u and ur brothers here in nairaland trying to make your country relevant?

why are u here trying to prove to we Nigerians that Kenya is "better than Nigeria"
if you knew who you were and your countries relevance in Africa and world , u wudnt come here trying so hard to make your country relevant

america is an example of a country that know who they are, you can never see Americans arguing with Germans or Britons on whos country is better , becos they know their countries relevance and importance to d world

You guys keep claiming we are here making ourselves relevant yet you've camped here since your fellow Nigerian created this thread in response to a thread another Nigerian created titled 'Kenya is behind Nigeria in Everything, that's a fact' trying to show how 'mighty' Nigeria is. One wonders who's fooling who - who's really trying to be relevant? Btw why do Nigerians love using that term? That you're trying to be relevant? This is just absurd.

We are not here trying to prove Kenya is better than Nigeria, we are answering the insults you keep hurling at us. I didn't come across this forum because of seeking information on Nigeria, I was seeking information on Kenya when I came across this forum. Then I realized you guys were opening threads every other day trying to bring Kenya down. I am here because my country was being discussed and you guys are mad that we are bursting the bubble you created that Nigeria is some sort of a giant while everywhere in the continent nobody gives a damn about you and no one views you as any giant.

Americans not arguing with Germans is mutual - that's why they're a superpower. Meanwhile you claim to be an African superpower of some kind yet you spend all your time insulting fellow Africans online. If you were really a giant non of you would even be on this thread - Lions don't turn when a dog barks behind them.

jason14:
please who exactly is Nigeria inferior too?

Is it that you didn't go to school or you're just stupid? I said you have an inferiority complex - that's different from being inferior to anyone......and you wonder why we tell you that your education system is shit.

rvp2017:
I know I vowed not to make any more comments until 2019 - but I had to do this - as I read some kenyan investment take on our gov 5-yr plan.The giant with their gigantic banks - are doing far worse than kenya in mortage

https://cytonnreport.com/research/affordable-housing-in-kenya-cytonn-weekly-162018-1#focus-of-the-week
Anyway the Big plan for next yr as far as our gov goes
Food and Nutrition Security – The government plans to achieve 100.0% food security through enhanced large-scale production, boosting SME productivity and reduction of food costs,
Manufacturing – The aim is to grow the contribution of manufacturing to GDP from 9.2% in 2016 to 20.0% by 2022 through establishment of industrial parks, Special Economic Zones and implementation of policies to boost processing of textiles, leather, oil, gas, construction material, foods, fish, iron and steel,
Affordable Healthcare – This aims to increase the current universal health care coverage in Kenya from 36.0% to 100.0% by 2022 through scaling up NHIF uptake, increased budgetary allocation to health and adoption of low cost service delivery models, and,
Affordable Housing – The government plans to deliver 1 mn units over the next 5-years out of which, 20.0% will be social housing while 80.0% will be affordable housing.

And what does the future portend.

Finally the last 15yrs the kenyan economy has grown from strength to strength - from 13B to now 80B (it could be more when it get re-based); I don't see what can stop this growth; infact I see it accelerating as we transition demographically (for the first time those under 0-5 yrs are less than those 5-10yrs!!!) and our pop growth rate is dropping to 2.5% - couple with mobile commerce & mobile banking (m-pesa effect) I only see kenya growing bigger and bigger.

My prediction for kenya GDP - based on the last 15yrs - the fact that economy is so well-diversified & the growth so broad-base (no one sector) - is that Kenya GDP will hit $100B in 2020 (this will be apparent when GDP will be rebased around 2011/2012- current base yr is 2009). And it will hit $200B around 2026. $300B around 2030 - at that point - Kenya will be about equal to South Africa level now ( Of course South Africa will have move to around $400 plus ). But around 2035- kenya and South Africa will be equal. It may sound crazy!!! But we shall see - kenya economy is about just started - it's foundation is solid!

Nigeria future is gloomy!

I wish I could say the same about Nigeria - it already lost 100B since they rebased - now 400B - and are happy with 1% growth rate - and will fall or grow with Oil. I don't see any great future with oil - with climate change and all electric vehicles - Nigeria better prepare for world where demand for oil will be very very low. Nigeria better wake up - I know they haven't prepared for this - the Saudis and Norwegians will be set for life - they have nearly a trillion dollars just banked for the rainy day!! But Nigeria have squander their oil petro-dollars and the party is coming to end. Without Oil - & without a strong economic base - Nigeria state will go into turmoil - it's best bet is for military junta to take over like they did in Brazil (when shit hit the fan - before the current re-awakening) - otherwise it may splinter into 3-4 countries(the muslim north, the yoruba & related, and the biafra).

Kenya GDP - past and my own projection.
2002 13
2003 15
2004 17
2005 19
2006 27
2007 32
2008 36
2009 37
2010 40
2011 42
2012 50
2013 55
2014 62
2015 64
2016 71
2017 75
2018 80
2019 90
2020 101
2021 113
2022 127
2023 142
2024 159
2025 178
2026 199
2027 223
2028 250
2029 280
2030 314
2031 352
2032 394
2033 441
2034 494
2035 553

Ordinarily that mortgage rate would be shocking but luckily not everyone here is impervious to intelligence and can see the obvious! Your posts gladden my heart. I've also said I can easily foresee the bolded happening in that timeframe. Never go away!

Kikuyu1 - I think by the time Nigerians realize what's happening in Kenya - as far as M-PESA & related revolution - it will be too late for them. The figures are staggering and for the first time last Quarter (Jan-March) - mobile commerce overtook p2p transfters - and crossed 10B dollars in a Quarter!! - so annually - you're looking into total of nearly $80B dollars (our GDP) being transacted - with about 50B dollars of it as m-commerce (not the primitive peer to peer transfer) -- and it's growing at crazy rates (60% for mobile commerce & 15% for p2p). The mobile loans are already over $1B dollars if am not wrong and they are growing at equally crazy rates!. They are about 200,000 agents supporting mobile economy and it also growing. The economy is formalizing - and lets' not even talk about ICT - where kenya leads with broadband speed that rivals the best in the world.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Kenyan-mobile-money-deals-hit-Sh1-7trn/4003102-4244878-h58cee/index.html

kikuyu1:


Nigeria are stuck at 1st telecommunication revolution - while kenya is revving the engine that will fire next decade.

Nigeria attempt at mobile money has failed...nothing works there except for extraction of oil.


Ordinarily that mortgage rate would be shocking but luckily not everyone here is impervious to intelligence and can see the obvious! Your posts gladden my heart. I've also said I can easily foresee the bolded happening in that timeframe. Never go away!

sufferNsmiling:



I say only 2% of the inventions in africa are achieved by nigerians.
nigeria rank 128 in the world’s innovative.
Global Innovation Index 2016 nigeria rank 114.
Zimbabwe is now in front

http://www.myafricanow.com/10-most-technologically-advanced-countries-in-africa/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/countries-worlds-innovative
http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2016-intro5.pdf

What are the Zimbabweans innovating? Read the report again it's all about policies driving innovation. We all know Nigeria is not perceived as conducive place for business and these reports are more about that and nations with policies driving innovations

Nigeria are amazing in their delusion. You'll never admit that the giant is naked.And no- it not about policies - they have lots of SOLID indicators there - and Nigeria is just doing very badly - nearly bottom 10 - and it's seem to get worse - Kenya has improved from position 99 to 80 (jumped nearly 20 countries) - while Nigeria has regressed around from 120-128!

While you regress - kenya ranked "worse" than only South Africa, Mauritus, Morroco and Tunisia - which are second world countries.

https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/analysis-indicator

Daejoyoung:

What are the Zimbabweans innovating? Read the report again it's all about policies driving innovation. We all know Nigeria is not perceived as conducive place for business and these reports are more about that and nations with policies driving innovations

rvp2017:
Nigeria are amazing in their delusion. You'll never admit that the giant is naked.And no- it not about policies - they have lots of SOLID indicators there - and Nigeria is just doing very badly - nearly bottom 10 - and it's seem to get worse - Kenya has improved from position 99 to 80 (jumped nearly 20 countries) - while Nigeria has regressed around from 120-128!

While you regress - kenya ranked "worse" than only South Africa, Mauritus, Morroco and Tunisia - which are second world countries.

https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/analysis-indicator

do you even know what second world country means ? stop talking rubbish and go and find out what second world means . u think it's by having electricity and tall buildings that u are a second world country? china has abundant skyscrapers and electricity still they are still third world

baba RVSVP north Korea is a third world oooo and they have beautiful cities oo

go and research what first , second and third world means before u come and be calling south Africa and Egypt second world

jason14:
do you even know what second world country means ? stop talking rubbish and go and find out what second world means . u think it's by having electricity and tall buildings that u are a second world country? china has abundant skyscrapers and electricity still they are still third world

leave this stupids Kenyans alone with their delusional attitude, who ever called Kenya "Second world countries," is mad, Kenya is more like 5th world country.

Take you advice. There is no way China or South Africa can be equal to Nigeria or Kenya. And yet they are not at developed world stage yet. So yeah roughly speaking South Africa, Tunisia, Morrocco and Mauritus are second world. And Kenya is competing with them...while Nigeria is competing with Niger...in bottom 10...in that global innovation map. Get it?

jason14:
do you even know what second world country means ? stop talking rubbish and go and find out what second world means . u think it's by having electricity and tall buildings that u are a second world country? china has abundant skyscrapers and electricity still they are still third world

You're a reflection of what Nigerian suffering is talking about. You're the poster child of Nigeria very poor education. I said very plain English that kenya is ranked amongst countries you can describe as second world....South Africa is not 3rd world like Nigeria or Kenya. And while kenya is making progress toward second world - Nigeria is regressing further to compete with Niger, Chad and South Sudan.

While you regress - kenya ranked "worse" than only South Africa, Mauritus, Morroco and Tunisia - which are second world countries.

68816419:

leave this stupids Kenyans alone with their delusional attitude, who ever called Kenya "Second world countries," is mad, Kenya is more like 5th world country.

Daejoyoung:

My problem with you is not that what you say is completely false but that you generalize too much, exaggerating the so called progress of other African nations in comparison to Nigeria. You prefer a single story version of Nigeria, simply because you are still bitter from your experience in Nigeria with regards to your business.
The problem with a single story is not that they are untrue but that they are incomplete, they rob a people of their dignity (Chimamanda Adichie).
Yes many of the youths have half baked education, but so many are still thriving with some of the most valuable tech start up's in Africa in 2016 and has the most valuable tech ecosystem In 2017. In 2016( during recession) the Lagos tech space attracted the highest funds in the continent ahead of South Africa and Kenya. Most of these guys in the Nigerian tech scene are from Covenant university and other Nigerian universities. if as you said, Nigerians are so uneducated that they can't do 5-10% of what other Africans do in other African nations, then this wouldn't be happening at all.
So you see my friend, while l believe we need to reform our education sector, l wouldn't go so low to say Nigerians can't do 5-10% of what other Africans are doing.

He does not know that Nigerian universities are the highest ranked in West Africa and among the highest in Africa. We have 5 universities among Africa's top 25. And yet one illiterate says Nigerians are illiterate. You see why I said he hates himself thinking the problem is with his country. This is the latest ranking for Africa.


https://www.4icu.org/top-universities-africa/

According to you - maybe? Very authoritative

68816419:
Fastest developing city in Africa!

EuroMonitor: Fastest growing cities in Africa 2017 - but if you're looking for fastest growing slums - then Lagos and Kinshasa are in hot competition.

https://blog.euromonitor.com/2017/02/economies-2017-top-10-african-cities-growth-2017.html

rvp2017:
The last say 15yrs - most of growth in sub-sahara - was down to commodities price rally (oil barrel @100 dollars) and telecommunication - the next 15yrs will be harsh for economies that depend on oil (Nigeria & Angola) - because Oil is going to sell for as low as 10 dollars (when Nigeria depend on it for 95% of it's revenue/taxes) - and digital revolution in finance+ICT like is happening in kenya will drive the economy forward. In Nigeria mobile money has simply refused to grow - stuck at 1% -5yrs later - while in Ghana they are hot on the heels of kenya - although Kenya is so faaaar ahead - just the same way it's ahead in internet/broandband. Therefore my bold prediction are that kenya will continue to grow at very high rates...while Nigeria will continue to regress with Oil. They are simply unable to shake off the oil curse/dutch disease.

.

I really doubt oil prices going as low as 10$...

obaaderemi:
He does not know that Nigerian universities are the highest ranked in West Africa and among the highest in Africa. We have 5 universities among Africa's top 25. And yet one illiterate says Nigerians are illiterate. You see why I said he hates himself thinking the problem is with his country. This is the latest ranking for Africa.


https://www.4icu.org/top-universities-africa/

doesnt he know that Nigerians are d most educated people in america , Africa

@Kikuyu -
Did you know that as we speak total number of mobile money (m-pesa & equitel) transactions are around 1.5B per year. Visa- the world busiest (unless it been overtaken by China's Union) total global transactions are 28B. So already M-PESA is among the world busiest payment systems..and it's growing at a furious pace!

rvp2017:
EuroMonitor: Fastest growing cities in Africa 2017 - but if you're looking for fastest growing slums - then Lagos and Kinshasa are in hot competition.

https://blog.euromonitor.com/2017/02/economies-2017-top-10-african-cities-growth-2017.html

yes a fastest growing slum with a GDP higher than ur entire country lool

dude when Kenya's GDP gets to Lagos own(Lagos oo not even Nigeria) then we can argue

The past - before there was the talk of climate change - there was times including recently when it was 15 dollars a barrel - Renewable clean energy is the future.Many developed countries are planning to ban petrol or diesel cars by 2030! It will be total annihilation; the same with coal.Nigeria have wasted all their petro-dollars - including building a new slum city in Abuja...and they are seemingly unable to function without oil.Factories or power station that ran on diesel are being de-commissioned. In the short-term China is building a huge reserve of Oil so they won't be coming to the market a lot. Your gov revenues are all from oil. You guys need to really wake up before it's too late.

nwoke37:

I really doubt oil prices going as low as 10$...