₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
Ganduje did both nomination and appointment? So, how's that Kwankwasos problem? Was it also Ganduje that prevailed on the president to snub Gawuna and poach the lightweight gov from nnpp?

In 2023, Kwankwaso spoilt Atikus party in Kano by working for Tinubu. In 2027, Kwankwaso would rectify that damage for Atiku.

Lol, you are miscalculating as usual. Kwankwasiyya are like obidients, they are not transferrable. They vote only their master. They will never vote Atiku or obi. They come out for kwankwaso or for Guber polls. Even in 2019, they failed Atiku. Atiku lost woefully in Kano 2023, even tinubu bested him. This clearly shows they don't rate Atiku sir. There's nothing kwankwaso can do about this. Best case is a narrow victory like in most northern states

Saladdin:
I dey tell you brother. Almost all the former PDP aspirants in Kaduna that were vying for various posts are now in ADC. The anti party and sabotage of APC go loud!

Mallam made Uba a Governor and Tinubu a president, and he will unmake them, no doubt.

Nigerians are dying like fowls, yet the C-in-C is in all intent and purpose incompetent. Since he can't tackle the insecurity, let him go!

Lol, most of Isa Ashiru votes where from southern kaduna which is now gone to U a Sani. El rufai will be buried

Sugarboyy:
And all these while I thought you know Edo State politics and you are on ground. You openly saying ADC will win Edo state has shown that you are not on ground in Edo state.
Presently ADC doesn't exist in Edo Central (Esan) because of Okpebholo effect and in the whole of Edo North, APC won in 2023 despite the Obi tsunami. In 2027, APC will win the Whole of Edo North and Edo Central and wins 60% in Edo South.

No, understand me. I thought obi will still win based on his 2023 figures

ogascomax:
Tell me the key players in North that can sway voters. Which one. Tinubu has even failed the North and Nigeria entirely.

In sokoto, Wamakko and the governor are with Tinubu. In Kebbi, Aliero and Bagudu are with Tinubu. In zamfara, Yari and Yerima are pro Tinubu. In Katsina, the Yaradua family, Dahiru mangal, Masari are with Tinubu. For Jigawa, Badaru and Farouk Adamu and the governor are with Tinubu. Lamido is neutral for now. In Yobe, Governor Buni, Ahmed Lawan, Ibrahim Geidam, Hon Machina, Ibrahim Bomai are with Tinubu. All the who is who in Borno are pro Tinubu.
In Kogi, Bello, governor Ododo, senator Echocho, the Audu family, smart Adeyemi are all with Tinubu. For Niger, senator Bello, Governor Bago, David Umaru, muazu Babangida, Jerry Gana are with Tinubu. For kwara, Governor Abdulrazak, Oloriegbe, Senator mustapha, Lai Mohammed, Gbemi saraki are pro Tinubu. Saraki is neutral. In nasarawa, Governor Sule, Senator Makura, Abdullahi Adamu, senator Wadada, Jonathan Gaza, Ombugadu are pro Tinubu. At benue, virtually everyone apart from David Mark is pro Tinubu. Every stakeholder in plateau is pro Tinubu. In Taraba, virtually every stakeholder is pro Tinubu. In Bauchi, Apart from senator Ningi, the rest are pro Tinubu or neutral. In Gombe apart from Senator Dankwambo, the rest are pro Tinubu. Even in Adamawa, apart from senator Elisha Abbo, The senator representing Adamawa south and ex governor Bindowo and senator Binani. Most state holders support Tinubu.
Apart from El rufai who has been humiliated in kaduna, Kwankwaso in Kano, which major stakeholders in the north are with atiku

aswani:
I know it's your opinion but ADC will be beaten black and blue in Edo state. They will be wasting valuable resources campaigning in Edo state with that ticket.

With what happened during the Edo central senate and ovia reps bye elections, I might agree

Saladdin:
Abba might win his sit, and most elective officials might also win their sit. But at the presidential level, the President is NOT winning Kano. Not even the 2023 figure will come up again.

It will be tighter this time

ogascomax:
Your eyes will clear after the election. Those who made that possible aren't supporting Tinubu again. You think 2023 will be like 2027. Which River State you are talking about. Is it the one I am right now abi the River State in Oshodi.

Majority of those who formed APC, helped Tinubu are still there. Wike will still deliver Rivers

onatisi:
dislodging tinubu from aso rock will take a huge effort from these politicians and nigerians come 2027 . the opposition really need to mobilze the people

It's too late

ogascomax:
I was beginning to think that 2027 election won't be much interested now I can see that the election will be a very tough election with a new realities. In Adamawa State I believe we shall see the first female governor ruling a State. Kano election will be very crazy. The North will be too hurt for Tinubu. It will be a door or die election for Tinubu. 2027 election is a war.

That woman won't win, Fintiri will present the next governor

unclejb2:
Obi/Kwankwaso ticket is 80% loading.

The biggest weights in northern politics are all in ADC.

Tinubu's nightmare

The biggest weights in the north are in APC

richmond500:
The circumstances that made Wike deliver Rivers state has been taken away from him.
The executive power.

Now SIM holds the red pen with a silent nod from presidency.

That executive power will still be given to Wike when time comes. Again, most of the men that helped Wike deliver are still with him

ddippset:
Nothing is ultimate.


Even all Tinubu's supporters will not vote him.
Even Obi's supporters will not all vote him.

You don't need to tell me, I know this more than you.


There are many other divisions but the major division is;

Supporters of the government versus Opposers of the government.


Supporters vs Opposition.

Tinubu is in government so it's going to be across those lines; not entirely but majorly.

1.

If you know more than me, you will know than Tinubu will be reelected barring any unforseen circumstances despite your hatred for APC

ddippset:
I love this your mathematics..

If Atiku doesn't contest, then add the votes of Peter Obi, Atiku and Kwonkwoso.

That's what Obi will get in 2027.

Who told you Atiku supporters will all vote obi? Even many kwankwaso supporters won't vote obi. It is just like saying all obi supporters will vote another candidate when this never happens. Voters are not transferable

Majdddd:
Adc have 2 state now katsina and kano congratulations to them

How did they get Katsina

Vinnie2000:
Some Governors will influence their State citizens to vote for Tinubu.

Esp performing Governors

This is what will happen in state such as Enugu and Delta.

Igbos have never been influenced by their governors electoral wise

richmond500:
I don't know for other but Wike can't deliver Rivers state.

I heard APC wants to give SIM some conditions, but SIM has said if he doesn't like those conditions, he will step aside and allow Wike have his way in Rivers.

Wike delivered rivers in 2023 so why can't he do it again?

Vinnie2000:
What makes you think Northerners can not vote enmasse for a Southern Presidential candidate?

In 1993 election, MKO Abiola got lots of votes from the North.

If the Presidential Election is a Two-Horse race, the North will pick Obi over Tinubu.

Lol, Abiola didn't win the north. Obi can never win the north, stop the fantasy. Even the north central with christians, he struggled to win

Vinnie2000:
My brother, APC will win in Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi.
These 3 states are now core APC states.

Abia will vote Massively for ADC based on Obi/Otti's relationship.

Anambra will massively vote ADC bcus despite his achievement here and there, Anambra do NOT like Soludo.

Soludo is too Authoritarian. He cannot convince them to vote Tinubu.

Oga, you are far from reality? Which relationship does Otti have with obi? Is it not crystal clear that Otti prefers Tinubu

CharleyBright:
What many of you don't understand Nigerian politics is it stands presently is that there is high tendency that States can support their party Governorship candidate but not willing to support their party presidential candidate.
This will play out a lot in the South East and South South.
Anyone that thinks Nigerians that are suffering on the street will go and queue and vote Tinubu are jokers.
They will vote their governors and not vote Tinubu

In SS, Tinubu will likely win or come very close

Vinnie2000:
Lol,
You are wrong.

With the way Peter Mbah of Enugu is going, he will convince the state citizens to vote Tinubu.

As for the North, remember that there is always Bandwagon effect.

If Kano is voting ADC, Kebbi, Jigawa, Gombe, etc will follow suite.

You are dead wrong. There's nothing convincing Enugu from voting from obi. Mbah can only convince them to vote for himself and secure some votes for Tinubu, that's all.
As for core north, They will never vote a non Muslim or go Gaga for a southerner
Kano has no connection with Jigawa, Gombe. Kano is only connected to Jigawa but not electorally. The bandwagon effect only stops with buhari or any radical candidate not Atiku tlkkess of Obi. In 2023, Nnpp only win Kano, tinubu win Jigawa, Atiku won Gombe and Kebbi. Obi cannot win any core northern state. Infact, he might lose Kano. Obi got ridiculous votes in sokoto, Kebbi and most of those states in 2023. It wouldn't change much

Vinnie2000:
Based on the Assumption that we have Peter Obi/Kwankwanso ADC candidacy.

SOUTH EAST
Abia - Likely to be won by ADC (Otti na Obi man)
Anambra- Likely to be won by ADC
Enugu- Will be won by APC
Ebonyi- Will be won by APC
Imo- APC will win.

SOUTH SOUTH
Delta - APC will likely win
Edo - APC will definitely win
Bayelsa - Seriake Dickson will make ADC win.
Rivers- Can't say bcus you can't predict Wike.
Akwa-Ibom- APC will win
Cross Rivers- ADC can pull off a surprise

SOUTH WEST
Lagos- APC will win (Agberos will ensure it)
Osun- Can't say but they won't vote Tinubu.
Ogun- APC will win
Ondo- APC will win
Ekiti- APC will win
Oyo- Making could decide it

NORTH CENTRAL
Kwara- APC will win
Kogi- APC will win
Plateau- 50/50 for both ADC or APC
Benue- APC will win.
Taraba- APC will win
Nassarawa- ADC will win

CORE NORTH
Kano- ADC will clear it
Kaduna- ADC will win
Katsina- 50/50 for both parties
Sokoto- ADC will clear it
Adamawa- ADC will win
Niger- APC will win.
Other Northern states will decide the contest.

So Who do you think will emerge Winner between the two parties?

You couldn't hide your bias. APC can't win any southern eastern state but they should get reasonable votes in Ebonyi, Imo and Enugu. Seriake can't make ADC win Bayelsa, he is in NDC by the way. For you to say Wike is unpredictable is funny. ADC is non existent in kwara. ADC should narrowly win Edo and delta, the rest SS goes APC. All the SW states will go Tinubu. There's no way osun will vote obi, besides Adeleke said he supports Tinubu.
In the north central, ADC can only win plateau narrowly. The rest is Apc. Tinubu has kaduna as it stands. Apart from Kano, APC will win the entire core north except Adamawa and maybe Taraba.

IronCondemned:
It's about time.

APC implosion will be loud.

Episode 1: Scene 1.0

ADC own will be louder.

dalongjnr:
I can't argue with you because you get your informations from the Internet.
Have you ever imagined the fact that he won almost equal numbers of states with the Tinubu, despite buhari, the power of incumbents on the side of Tinubu, thankfully with the help of El rufai who remote controlled everything to Tinubu due to his friendship with the vice president!
Wallah,if not a last minute split decisions, Tinubu could have not been the president.

Atiku was never going to win Tinubu sir especially with obi contesting . Nothing surprising happened except Yobe and Gombe being won by Atiku. El rufai played a good role in the primaries and before, in the elections he lost his state. El rufai never hid his dislike for Tinubu, his fake support was due to his original choice of Amechi failing.
Buhari was majorly neutral, he reluctantly supported tinubu at the last minute which was negated by his cabal support for Atiku. Presidential elections is not won by number of states but by margins which Tinubu got well.
. I have always known that Atiku is not popular enough in the north and will likely struggle. It will get worse. Apart from Adamawa which Fintiri will divide, Atiku isn't sure of any other state. He can't win any southern state, he will be smothered in the south. He has no chance in the north central. Worst case, he wins NE and NW narrowly. He can't win sokoto and Kebbi again. Tinubu is set to win Kaduna and Katsina.

dalongjnr:
Out of the 32 governors that I personally know, only 10 are with the president, 9 are with atiku,2 with wike,4 with Jonathan,1 with ty danjuma,2
1 with el rufai,1 with wammakko,1 with badaru,2 with shettima,1 with nobody but God.
If the 22 are to betray him,then the president is going to have a hot 🔥 🥵 he'll of a contest in his hands but his powers of incumbents will give him an edge, if he doesn't panic and know how to use it. Though, he's already panicking judging by the way the APC National Congress was conducted.

You are funny. After all these years, you still underrated Tinubu. In 2023, Atiku didn't have up to 9 governors so how will 9 governors be with him? Any governor supporibg Gej is also supporting Tinubu. Atiku just can't win tinubu. Apart from Adamawa, I don't know which other state is sure for him sir

fergie001:
That's not even the cause.
Reconciliation talk had started. Wike and Bala Mohammed met & Bala said cancel your National Convention, let the factions unify and produce a National Caretaker but Wike insisted his National Convention must go on.

For Bala & Makinde, their Candidates will be contesting on the platforms of other parties but they have resolved to personally remain in the Party.

Me and you know that the apex court does not grant exparte orders except on rare cases. Let Wike convention go ahead so that he will be negotiating from a stronger place

fergie001:
You are correct.
Issues concerning chieftaincy matters fall within the residual list.... It is under the jurisdiction of State High Courts.

I told you that Alli is unstoppable, there's no body in makinde camp that can rival him. I won't be surprised if you are not smelling the dangerous desperation from Seyi

AMINDA:
Today's exclusive from People's Gazette. Meanwhile, Tinubu is still persecuting Sanwo-olu via Ms Achimugu for allegedly funding Atiku in 2023. We will all learn politics together.

Sule supported Osibanjo in 2023 and was alleged to have supported Atiku so it's nothing new. Tinubu still humiliated Atiku in nasarawa and will still humiliate him again

AMINDA:
Okay you now admit that APC governors got 500 billion naira for palliative but non-APC governors didn't. Why then are you surprised that governors are defecting to APC? They are doing it for "their people".

There is no evidence that such happened, it is mere propaganda similar to the one Obaseki made. Atiku has lost

[quote author=AMINDA post=138904286]From the horse's mouth. He has now defected to APC.

"I know of States that have received over 500 billion Naira from the Federal Government as palliative, but I have never received anything.

I think the reason I don't get it is because I'm not in APC.

-Dauda Lawal, Zamfara State Governor pic.twitter.com/QvfR8olibA

— Arewa Source (@Arewa_Source) February 17, 2026

palliatives not for defecting, stop misinterpreting or misinformation. Atiku has lost, you yourself know it

AMINDA:
Which governor will forgo 500 billion naira to join the ADC for free? How many governors delivered their states to Tinubu in 2023?

Did you see any governor getting 500 bil? How much did APC buy governors in 2015? A governor doesn't have to win his state, getting those significant votes while keeping the opposition in check is their main job. Atiku won three states in the south in 2023 and those three states had PDP governors. Infact, atiku has his highest votes where PDP had governors. You no Sabi politics

AMINDA:
Okay o. Salihu is nobody. Gawuna is nobody and even Kwankwaso is nobody in Kano. Time is a gentleman.

I never said Gawuna is a nobody. Gawuna has not defected, even kwankwaso is still in nnpp. Open your eyes, Atiku has lost

AMINDA:
Well, the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes after he was resoundingly rejected in the South. In other words, the so-called "hausa fulani hegemony" made Tinubu president when he failed in 14 Southern states out of 17. Where is the arrogance coming from? Tinubu is still yet to consolidate support in the entire South. He camouflages it with defected governors but the pulse of the voting electorates are clearly not with him. Tinubu should immediately step aside and support Obi before it's too late.

Why has ADC failed to get a single governor? Your party is unattractive and failing... Atiku has lost more followers than any other politician. As it stands, Atiku is non-existent in all southern states, his defeat will be resounding