₦airaland Forum

PlasmaTV:
Yawns
You are believing fake news? You think the north will vote for Tinubu above kwankwaso!?

Interesting.

Oga, kwankwaso took third in 2023 in the north. Better keep silent

[quote author=AMINDA post=139206020]Talk is cheap. This was Edo yesterday at the City Boy Southsouth convention. Okpebholo promised Tinubu 2.5m votes from here.

“Another gathering to show capacity that President Tinubu followers get capacity”—- Dumb APC Supporter😂😂😂😂 https://t.co/Nie8aJBahx pic.twitter.com/TGi6g9K1Lf

— JezebelReborn🧙‍♀️ (@JezebelReborn) April 24, 2026

will give Atiku votes

Svoboda:
You and I know that it wasn't what was promised them when they were defecting to the APC.

We didn't know what they were promised so dont assume wrongly. There's nothing Tinubu did that your buhari didn't do

Svoboda:
Buhari was democratic. He allowed stakeholders in various states decide what they wanted.

That is what Tinubu is doing. Governors have mainly decided who gets senate tickets right from 1999

udemzyudex:
Buried by who? You?

By his master in Lagos. Can he win any election

Svoboda:
After falling over themselves to please the president, sometimes at the cost of the ire of the people, this is what they get. Worse still is that a good number of them have nothing physical to show in their respective constituencies as development projects because of the government obstinate refusal to release funds for capital expenditure. That's why they are being attacked by their constituents. Prior to what they're seeing now, they all had a different impression, that tickets would be an offer of first refusal for them when they were moving like a herd to the APC. Pity.

Did buhari offer automatic ticket

udemzyudex:
It lead to gang up against him, we saw what played out in the primary election.

If you don forget no be everybody go forget.

He has been buried politically,move on

udemzyudex:
Lol.. Cos Ambode press their neck during his tenure.

Where did that lead to

fergie001:
But Ganduje didn't back this move.
He is seen as too powerful and will upset Barau's chances in the next four years, if Abba wins.

Hmmm

ogascomax:
Tell me how? What are your indices.

Corruption, leadership, tribalism, competency

fergie001:
Yes

He is pro Ganduje

Razzness:
This is a shallow projection. Abba won against an incumbent APC in 2023 with a rather new party. How is it that you think he will lose to APC now that he is already a governor, something he was able to do when he was not even a governor? Do you know the amount of popularity it takes to unseat a sitting party in this country? Abba's second term was never in doubt. That's why his decision to betray Kwankwaso at this point is simply baffling.

He will still win his second term

ogascomax:
What kind of nonsense question you are asking whether Atiku or Amaechi will step down. Obi no dey step down.
Even as much as we may be thinking that Obi may be offering different thing which is based on hope not on forensic data available to us as the governor of his State. The only thing we can say is that Obi does not take public money but leadership is beyond that.
Whoever wins ADC ticket is far better than the demonic APC as a political party. Someone will say he prefer Tinubu to Atiku. What a nonsense talk. Atiku is not vengeful, he is not known for notoriously like Tinubu.
He is not a dangerous man like the rest of is folks. A civil man. He believes in democratic process and you see that is son joined APC and he said everyone has is choice to make.

Sharap, Atiku is worse than Tinubu

SmartPolician:
I didn't know he was going to last this long in this yeye government because Wale is an honest man

What honesty? Is that his job

MostIncredibleDFirst:
Nothing to write home about government.
Security = 0.
Power and Electricity = 0.
Roads = 0.
Hospitals and Health = 0.


Politics = 100.

Tinubu has done very well on roads and health

fergie001:
Well, they should resolve their kini......but Babaxhir Lawal is playing a dangerous game!

He played this same game with obi in 2023 and cost obi Adamawa

fergie001:
I complained about this the last time.

Well, Binani will be heading to NDC. ADC and Atiku will pay dearly for it!
Very dearly/

I think Babachir offers more financially than Binani/ Abbo. If she plays her cards well, she will be the next governor

Svoboda:
Tinubu has no competence to continue.

Tinubu for the first time since 1999 has increased capital expenditure to 45%

AMINDA:
Tinubu's margins in the NC in 2023 was because of muslim-muslim ticket, not inspite of it. The Christians in the NC largely voted Obi while Muslims splitted their votes between Atiku and Tinubu. It is naïve to think Tinubu will now win the Christian votes in the NC while running on a muslim-muslim ticket in 2027, despite failing to solve the insecurity in the region and his latest gaffe in Plateau.

You are mistaken with falsehood. Tinubu win Benue dominated by Christians, won the Christian areas of kogi and lost kogi central dominated by Muslims. He won Christian areas of kwara and nasarawa. He won across board religiously. There is nothing Atiku can ever do to get north central votes. With Atiku losing saraki support in kwara, wada support in kogi, Muazu Aliyu support in Niger and Suswam support in Benue his losing margin has increased..
Insecurity in north central has reduced drastically compared to buhari period

Svoboda:
Tinubu with over 20 APC govs won only 4 states in the south. Despite being godfather, he lost Lagos and also osun, largely regarded as his homestate.

Atiku was in fact swimming against the tide because Buhari was a factor in favour of Tinubu.

Oga, all the governors don't need to deliver their states. All they need do is deliver significant votes and they did. The three states Atiku managed to win down south had PDP governors. Atiku wouldn't have gotten 25% in delta if not for okowa. You can never deemphasize their roles...nor that of godfathers. Atiku secretly worked with Buni because he knew his importance.
Winning presidential elections is about margins and spread and not number of states won no wonder atiku keeps losing. Atiku won 4 NW states but just two states Tinubu won there gave him victory.. a
ADC is drowning by the day. In Atiku Adamawa, the Binani faction is about pulling out after being out muscled by the featherweight Babachir. Binani is the most popular politician in Adamawa outside Atiku. Most ADC chapters are in crisis.

AMINDA:
The North that gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Traditionally, the NE and NW vote one-way but in 2023, they altered their voting pattern and splitted their votes 3-ways between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso to accommodate Tinubu. Northcentral will always get split no matter the permutation and in 2023, all three major candidates got over a million votes each from the region. Tinubu's win in the NC was marginal. The Christians in the North largely voted Obi in 2023 and while this may appear to have changed, it remains dicey for Tinubu and may quickly change if he goes ahead with a muslim-muslim ticket while other parties balance their ticket. The perceived support Tinubu currently enjoys among Christians in the NC is because he has tacitly implied that he will be conceding the VP ticket to the middlebelt come 2027.

Tinubu victory over Atiku in north central wasn't marginal, stop disgracing yourself. He won Atiku by a margin of 800k more than the winning margins in NE or NW. It will grow bigger this time. Their suport for Tinubu is due to his liberalism, his fight against insecurity esp benue plateau axis and allaying fears of marginalization and not because of any vp ticket

Svoboda:
The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

Atiku in 2023 with six governors failed woefully, an Atiku with no governor won't fly.. no matter how much the north votes him, it won't exceed 60%. Atiku Achilles heel remains north central. Atiku needs a running mate with a powerful warchest which rules out obi. Amechi, Makinde, Udom Emmanuel, Seriake Dickson are the only ones available which will turn into a rout

OredoPikin:
I wondered why ADC haven't collapsed into NDC
NDC is a new party and Seriake Dickson won't betray the party else he would have followed the governor to APC
NDC will produce the next bayelsa state governor

NDC can't produce anything, focus on your Edo

AMINDA:
Bala Mohammed may join the NDC along with Seyi Makinde. Goodluck Jonathan is also being courted to fly the party's ticket. He may choose Bala as Vice. Jonathan on the ballot will serve as a third force and will further complicate things for Tinubu in the SS and NC.

If Gej didn't fly PDP in 2019 or 2023, he won't join a dead NDC in2023, you clearly don't know politics. He would rather complicate things for Atiku as he would share from Atiku votes in core north.

malton:
Wadada is Gobirawa from Kebbi State.

He is a native of nasarawa

Svoboda:
Remember, Tinubu won with the least vote in the history of our modern day elections.

I said, Modern day elections. In this context, is 45 years ago modern?

Tinubu had four major contestants unlike others plus technology has reduced votes inflation. Shagari won awolowo with a slimmer margin and in 1983 won with a landslide. Same with obj. We don't know if ADC will be on the ballot, you can see brewing infighting among major aspirants from their latest comments

Svoboda:
You want to compare Tinubus abysmal popularity with that of Obj or 2011 Gej? Remember, Tinubu won with the least vote in the history of our modern day elections. More people voted against him than voted for him. My prayer is that obi is in one way or the other on the ballot.

This is untrue, the lowest votes ever recorded was by Shagari in 1979. He had 5.8 million. This false record shows you don't know your electoral demography, it is all about emotions from you. It depends on how obi contests. If he contests separately like in 2023, it makes it a easier as he would still Atiku votes again. If he pairs with Atiku, it will be hard for Tinubu. If he pairs with kwankwaso, the election is a formality...but from all indications, Atiku will pair with Makinde or Amechi or someone from the west...

Buhari lowest percentage in core north was 65% against obj and Gej who had massive elite support. Atiku can't get more than 60%.,highest should be 55% but I'll put it at 60%. NW total votes will be 6 million, Atiku takes 3.6 mil, Tinubu 2.4 mil. NE Atiku takes 1.8 mil, Tinubu 1.2 mil. NC Tinubu takes 2 mil, Atiku 1 mil. SW Tinubu takes 3 mil, Atiku 1 mil. SS Tinubu takes 1 mil Atiku 5 SE Tinubu takes 300k Atiku 100k that's if we use buhari analogy for a best case scenario for Atiku. If you add obi to Atiku, Tinubu will narrowly win by 200k...
There's no pathway for Atiku except he gets the political gladiators in the north on his side and win north central like buhari

Svoboda:
So you believe any politician working for Atiku in the north would reveal his hands so early? In 2023, yobe state gov worked for Atiku silently. Did he come out publicly to support him? Even Tinubu knows he has traitors within his ranks in the APC, and that's why they're scattering opposition parties, and now they're gaslighting Atiku with southern unity nonsense. With obi on the ballot, it makes things worse for Tinubu. Without obi, Tinubu is going to suffer a weak outcome in the south because of voter apathy. Even Buhari as a northerner had more frenzy in the south during his re-election in 2019 than what Tinubu can boast of currently. This is because the south lacks any real motivation to vote. Tinubu has performed poorly. I even want obi to decamp and run on his own, to eat up what's left off for Tinubus in the Ss. SE is a no go area. In the end, Tinubus victory in the south west will be useless in the final analysis.

Tinubu knew Buni will work against him that is why he set up another campaign headed by Geidam. Same in nasarawa yet it ended in failure. Even if there's voter apathy in the south, Atiku will fail woefully. But Tinubu will get 25% or more in most northern states and win north central. Tinubu will get the spread, Atiku won't. Even if obi wins SE, Tinubu will still flog Atiku there, nothing for your Atiku.... In 2023, there was also apathy up north. They don't rate Atiku

Look at another angle. Buhari with his popularity failed to sweep core north in 2003 and 2011. Obj got over 35% in core north, winning buhari in kaduna, Niger state. He only failed to get 25% in zamfara, kano and Borno. Majority of the political bigwigs supported him. In 2011, Gej replicated this because majority of the governors where with him. In 2015, majority of the political gladiators switched to buhari allowing him to get a landslide. Gej could only get 25% in kaduna, Taraba and Adamawa for obvious reasons. If a whole Buhari couldn't sweep the north against obj and Gej who had little structure and alliances in the core north, how will a largely unpopular Atiku do it against Tinubu who has massive long term alliances up north? Just accept the truth objectively, Atiku has no pathway. You need massive network of alliances. Even buhari needed alliances in the north central and south. Atiku has failed and will always fail.

Svoboda:
I didn't make reference to whom he was working for. Wadada isn't the only politician in nasarawa, is he? No politician is as strong as Atiku in the north right now. Tinubu knows this, and he is beginning to exploit southern unity fears. Unfortunately, it won't fly this time around.

Without obi on the ballot, Tinubu wins southern Nigeria by a landslide including the SE. No need for southern unity. All the strong politicians in nasarawa are with Tinubu just like in all the north central states.
Atiku is the strongest in the north but a tree cannot make a forest. He needs other strong politicians to help him in the north which he won't get. Atiku himself said kwankwaso is only popular in Kano and not beyond. He even admitted that Kano is divided. He knows the truth unlike his followers like you

Svoboda:
Wadada is an old war horse.

He is working for Tinubu, no one for Atiku. Pathetic

Digitron:
False. Muslims are clear minority and they know it.

Muslims dominate 7 lgas

Digitron:
No, 60-65% Christians

It's 50 50