₦airaland Forum

Prince111111:
I am not disregarding those facts. But as matter as a lone voter in any election, we should not compare an Aregbesola to a Wole Oke and his likes in Osun. He himself drew the crowd we all saw yesterday for ADC rally. However, everyone matters in Elections as you meant. I will personally mention you after this Saturday Sir.

OriOko88:
I will quote u on Sunday when the results are announced. I'm on ground in osogbo hearing what people are saying. That singular project in ife will make ife people vote Adeleke en mass. Do you know how many Omisore supporters in ife who are now working for Adeleke. Jamiu Olawumi and many others are now pro Adeleke. Omisore told them to vote for Adeleke.

spencekat:
We shall see,it is just few days away.

Prince111111:
In the scheme of things, all those you mentioned except Fada all banked on the PDP and Adeleke’s popularity in the last elections. Believe me all those you mentioned do not influence the electorates as you think and maybe you have lost track or didn’t know about the events that took place when he moved in to APC from Obokun Electorates.

OriOko88:
He will win ife with landslide this time. The regional factor doesn't favor Ambo. Him and Adeleke are from the west,so ife and osogbo will want to vote Adeleke so ut can be their turn in 2030
That's the mathematics

CharlesCNG:
How Osun Will Be Won And Lost: Five Battlegrounds That Could Decide August 15 by CharlesCNG

Adeleke defeated Oyetola in 2022 by just 28,344 votes—403,371 to 375,027. But the real story lies in geography and margins of osun's electoral power blocs.

1. IJESALAND

Adeleke won the six Ijesa LGAs by only about 6,800 votes. With Wole Oke, Sanya Omirin and Francis Fadahunsi now in APC, the party doesn't need a landslide—it needs to erase that margin.

2. IFE

APC already won the four Ife LGAs by roughly 8,600 votes. With Taofeek Ajilesoro joining APC and Iyiola Omisore backing Oyebamiji, the task is simple: win Ife bigger.

3. OSOGBO

Adeleke's advantage across Osogbo, Olorunda, Irepodun and Orolu was about 12,700 votes. APC doesn't necessarily need to win here—just shrink that firewall while protecting its strengths elsewhere in Central.

4. THE WEST

Adeleke's roughly 28,000-vote Ede advantage alone nearly equalled his statewide victory margin. Outside Ede, however, the West was competitive. Oyebamiji's task: contain Ede and maximise Irewole ( Oyebamiji home base) ,Isokan, Ayedaade and neighbouring battlegrounds.*

5. THE SALAAM / AREGBESOLA FACTOR

Najeem Salaam may not need to win to decide who does. If ADC fragments APC's traditional constituency, Adeleke benefits. If it takes votes Adeleke needs, APC benefits.

That is the mathematics of August 15:

APC doesn't need to conquer Adeleke's fortresses—it needs to shrink them. Adeleke must stop defections becoming transferable votes. Salaam only needs to take enough of the right votes from the right candidate.

Osun 2026 may be decided not by new strongholds, but by[b] who changes the margins that decided 2022.[/b]

OriOko88:
Did u see the crowd in ife yesterday at the commissioning of the flyover. Even ooni attended.

Sope otilo

Prince111111:
I disagree sir. Adeleke is winning seriously and like i said i wish Najeem would win but the truth is Omisore does not forgive any act of betrayal towards his ambition. The anger is in his mind hence the mass movements of his supporters in to Adeleke’s camp and besides, if you are saying that because of Oyinlola and Akinbade’s endorsement of Bamiji, those ones are nothing at the moment in Osun. You need to see the crowd that greeted Egbedun’s town hall meeting today in the same Okuku the former hailed from. The Governor is just too loved in the state

OriOko88:
He'd still win in Accord nevertheless. Accord is the first party on the ballot. It's very easy to campaign with.

Adeleke will win

safarigirl:
I like this lineup

Goodbye to Keivo and Sultex abeg. Make nobody touch my amebo Oyin

Cassi, we go hold you next week

safarigirl:
It will be Gerard

Willie2015:
Overvoting against Oyetola.
.the incumbent governor
That has federal might
and state security services..

How can an APC govenor be paying half salaries and still refuse to pay the backlog arrears expect to win ?

Willie2015:
Oyetola said he is not paying a dime..
That was the major reason he lost the last election...
FG seized N230 billion LG funds ..
Na APC and Oyetola dey paid the money....
Is it not the same Adeleke that is paying against all odds ??

spencekat:
This pre Osun gubernatorial election 'gbagbos' is electrifying. Adeleke will prevail at last.

OredoPikin:
Without rigging, Obi will win Lagos and come very close to tinubu as second in ondo, ekiti, Osun, Ogun, and oyo
He will win all the 6 states in South South with Tinubu and Atiku dragging close as second
He will win all the 5 states in SE with tinubu coming a distant second
He will win Abuja, nasarawa, benue, plateau.
He will come second in kwara and kogi and then a distant 3rd in Niger
He will win kano, kaduna, taraba, jigawa and bauchi with kwakwaso effect.
He will win a minimum of 18 states and 25% in at least 28 states in a free and fair contest in a 3horse race
U know it, I know it, everyone know it.

U know it

Willie2015:
Do you know what it means to start paying...
arrears of 12 years of APC ...
And also survive with FG lien on Osun LG accounts....

AMINDA:
It is good if they unite. That will only make Tinubu's impending defeat faster. But heads or tail, Tinubu has no pathway to re-election. "The guy is gone!"

Willie2015:
U forgot so soon
that the same APC paid half salaries
and refuse to pay backlog arrears till date

Prince111111:
asif Oyinlola influences all those sides, someone that could not win his polling unit the last election? The truth is Adeleke is winning this even though I would have preferred Iwaloye

Friendly25:
Ricky is a representation of the current Millenial - pre-occupied with adulting, nonchalant about many things, angry that they haven't achieved set goals, shocked at how fast time has flown by, and generally a mix of amused and sometimes irritated by Gen Zs. I strongly believe he'll win by simply going through life in the house and annoying the women some more.

Sheba gets this, and it's why i think they're a good match, if Ricky can control his konji.

The women thought he would be a very Hot rabbit chasing all of them after making mouth on the first day.

Goddessa is mad her charms didn't work on him. Neche, Nomy & Blue are irritated that instead of applying pressure, he just walks away if a girl tells him no. They instead started accusing him of aura farming and called him all manner of taunts from "bad b*tch" to "poohsie nigga" to "a princess".

Barry's own was worse, even female viewers of the show were calling him a soft boy and weakling for simply maintaining his distance with Neche!

The only difference is that he seemed charmed by Godessa. The guys are acting weird this season though, the women are kinda more in charge sexually.

The boys also look better than the girls according to viewers, so many of them have decided they won't settle.

Gerard almost reasoned Oyin,but she opened her mouth and he ran away.

safarigirl:
I know say my ship get haters for this thread, but I will burst if I no post my observations, so…

The way Goddessa handled the brainstorming session today, I’m sure Araga fell in love again. At one point, they were suggesting Amapiano songs, and she was singing the songs, like speaking Zulu/Xhosa, and he and Yusuf were chatting between each other and staring at her in admiration, and I could see how impressed he was.

The way she held the attention of the housemates gathered, the fact that they were all so quiet, paying attention until she finished, and then they even did round of applause…

There is nothing men love, than seeing their women in leadership positions. E no easy to follow HBIC. It’s like a bragging right.

Me sef I was proud of her, and I like that after the session, Araga went to tell her how impressed he was by her, and was begging her to sing for him later.

Anyway, my romance writing brain was incredibly tickled by this interaction, and I just wanted to post it somewhere. Thanks guys

Tifay:
Yeah, I dont like Chimsom Chuka and will probably never do this season.

The way he keeps bringing up Gerrard in this conversation. Shebi he's left the babe for u na.

Another Jason Jae is upon us. Damn!!

AMINDA:
If 2023 showed a glimmer of rice and beans politics, 2027 will be the mother of all rice and beans politics in the North. Despite the APC having several governors across the North, Atiku won virtually all the Northwestern states aside from Zamfara and Jigawa and all the Northeastern states aside from Borno. That was despite after 8 years of Buhari and against an untested Tinubu who still enjoyed the benefit of doubt and considerable Northern goodwill and sympathy. The margin is set to be even wider come 2027 with Tinubu's woeful performance and the perception of betrayal pervading the North. Tinubu's albatross will be his inability to shore up his popularity amongst electorates in the South. Outside of the SW, he remains very unpopular across the other South.

Muslim-muslim ticket is not hitting as hard as it should which is why the likes of Sheikh Yahaya Jingir have been commissioned to hit up the polity to make it a Christian vs Muslim affair but once bitten, twice shy. As for gubernatorial elections, local dynamics and the level of popularity of individual candidates will determine the outcome of the election in each state.

As political calculations for the 2027 general elections gather momentum, Nigeria’s North West is once again shaping up as the country’s most strategic electoral battleground.

Comprising seven states, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, the region remains the nation’s most vote-rich geopolitical zone and has historically served as the electoral backbone of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Remarkably, following Zamfara Governor Dauda Lawal’s defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in March 2026 and Kano Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s earlier move from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in January 2026, the APC now controls the governorship in all seven North West states, a dominance unmatched anywhere else in the federation.

Yet, political dominance of this scale does not automatically translate into electoral invincibility. Worsening insecurity, economic hardship, succession battles, godfather rivalries and the fragmentation of the opposition into competing platforms, the APC, the PDP, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the newly formed Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), could still reshape the electoral landscape ahead of the polls.

Each of these four parties now carries a distinct national character. The APC is the party of incumbency and federal patronage. The PDP, though diminished by the departure of Atiku Abubakar, retains legacy structures in states such as Bauchi and Oyo and residual loyalty in the North West. The ADC, built in 2025 around Atiku, David Mark and Nasir El Rufai, positions itself as the primary northern opposition vehicle. The NDC, the newest entrant, carries Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso and is still establishing itself legally and in organisation.

This analysis examines the political dynamics likely to define one of Nigeria’s most closely watched electoral contests, state by state, before placing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu side by side with Kwankwaso to assess where each man truly stands in the region.

Kaduna: Battle without godfather

As Nigeria gradually enters the build up to the 2027 general elections, Kaduna State is once again emerging as one of the country’s most consequential political battlegrounds. Home to one of the largest voting populations in Nigeria, and often regarded as a microcosm of the country’s religious, ethnic and political diversity, Kaduna will likely play a significant role in shaping the national electoral landscape.

The dominant issues remain insecurity and the cost of living. Despite government efforts to improve security, banditry and kidnapping continue to affect several rural local government areas, including Birnin Gwari, Giwa, Chikun, Kajuru, Igabi and parts of Kachia. Attacks on farming communities have disrupted production and supply chains, contributing to rising food prices alongside broader national inflationary pressures. With about 4.3 million registered voters, even modest shifts in rural turnout could significantly influence the outcome.

The APC holds a clear edge, built on the incumbency of Governor Uba Sani, who is seeking a second term without the backing of a single dominant godfather, having steadily built a political identity distinct from that of his predecessor, Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai. Sani was affirmed unopposed by APC delegates with 459,393 votes, and benefits from federal alignment through the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas.

However, Kaduna promises one of the most spectacular fights in the entire region. Isa Ashiru, a two time former PDP governorship candidate who polled more than 719,000 votes against Sani in 2023, has emerged as the ADC’s governorship candidate after winning the party’s primary with 86,113 votes. Ashiru’s candidacy is strengthened considerably by his alliance with El Rufai, described by observers as the soul of opposition politics in Kaduna.

The PDP has fielded Shehu Usman Bawa, though the party’s traditional base in the state has visibly declined. Political figures to watch include Sani, Ashiru, El Rufai and Wamakko style grassroots mobilisers within the APC structure. Whether Ashiru can convert the sympathy generated by his narrow 2023 defeat into a winning coalition, and whether El Rufai’s loyalists remain within the APC fold or chart an independent course, are likely to determine whether Sani secures a comfortable second term or faces the toughest battle of his career.

Kano: The great political swap

Kano’s 2027 contest has become the most volatile in the entire North West, defined by a dramatic swap of political camps. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who rode the Kwankwasiyya movement to victory under the NNPP in 2023, defected to the APC on 26 January 2026, a move that triggered the resignation of his own deputy governor, Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo, in protest.

The dominant issue in Kano is not insecurity in the conventional sense but the fracture of a once formidable political movement, alongside the perennial concerns of youth unemployment and the state’s commercial economy. The APC currently holds the structural edge, having absorbed Yusuf’s entire government, 22 members of the State House of Assembly and eight federal lawmakers, while former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje declared Yusuf the party’s sole governorship candidate for 2027.

Yet, the APC’s advantage is contested fiercely. Kwankwaso, having left the NNPP and briefly the ADC, now leads the NDC in Kano, where his loyalist Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo has emerged as governorship candidate, with the 2023 APC candidate Nasiru Gawuna also defecting to the NDC to contest the Kano Central senatorial seat. The NDC itself remains a young and legally contested platform, having been founded only recently and facing court challenges over its registration with the Independent National Electoral Commission, an uncertainty that opposition figures in Kano privately admit could complicate its ability to field candidates smoothly should the litigation drag into the election year.

Analysts describe Kano North as APC leaning, Kano Central as tilting toward the opposition bloc, and Kano South as the genuine swing zone that both camps are scrambling to control. Major figures include Yusuf, Ganduje, Kwankwaso, Gwarzo and Gawuna, whose overlapping rivalries and alliances make Kano arguably the most unpredictable state in Nigeria. Whether the Kwankwasiyya base stays loyal to its founder or follows the sitting governor into the APC will decide the contest, and given Kano’s status as the North West’s most populous state after Kaduna, the outcome will carry outsized weight in the national presidential tally as well.

Katsina: A stronghold meets a restless electorate

Katsina remains one of the APC’s strongest strongholds nationally, yet the contest is increasingly shaped by governance rather than party loyalty alone. Banditry has become the defining issue across many rural communities, disrupting farming, displacing villages and making travel dangerous, while the security crisis has evolved into an economic one as agricultural production has declined in affected areas.

The APC enjoys a clear edge here. Governor Dikko Umaru Radda is eligible for, and expected to secure, a second term, which removes the succession battles weakening ruling parties elsewhere. This is also the home state of late President Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the APC’s dominance, identity politics, religious networks, traditional institutions and Hausa Fulani solidarity, remains a powerful mobilising force, though these factors are increasingly complemented rather than replaced by voter expectations on security and livelihoods.

Voters, analysts note, no longer separate the cost of living from insecurity in their own minds; the two have become, in effect, a single grievance. With more than 3.5 million registered voters, Katsina’s outcome could meaningfully influence the national presidential contest

Kebbi: Succession battle behind strong development record

In Kebbi, Governor Nasir Idris has, by most accounts, delivered strongly on infrastructure, welfare and support for traditional and religious institutions, and enters 2027 with the advantages of incumbency and firm backing from President Tinubu’s federal structure. The dominant issue shaping the contest is less insecurity, though banditry along the Nigeria Niger Republic border remains a concern in places such as Zuru Emirate, and more a battle over political succession within the APC’s own ranks.

The APC holds the clear edge, but the party must first navigate hurdles from within before facing the opposition. Former Attorney General of the Federation Abubakar Chika Malami is positioning for the ADC governorship ticket, while Senator Bala Ibn Na’Allah, once tipped as Malami’s running mate, remains a formidable if unresolved factor.

Senator Garba Musa Maidoki’s defection from the APC to the ADC has also unsettled Kebbi South Senatorial District, though APC stakeholders argue that Idris’s development record, particularly the roughly sixty four billion naira road project linking Koko and Dabai in Zuru Emirate, has endeared the electorate to his administration.

Jigawa: Calm on security, fractured opposition

Jigawa stands out as comparatively stable in security terms, meaning campaigns there focus more on governance, agriculture and economic development than on banditry. Governor Umar Namadi has secured APC’s consensus nomination for a second term with what party officials describe as roughly ninety five per cent internal agreement, backed by former governors Ali Sa’ad Birnin Kudu and Ibrahim Saminu Turaki.

The APC retains a commanding edge, reinforced by its entrenched grassroots dominance across the populous Hadejia, Dutse, Gumel and Ringim emirates, and by the recent defection of federal lawmaker Shitu Galambi from the NNPP. However, the party is not without internal strain. Former Speaker Idris Gwaram defected to the PDP after losing his APC ticket, and the opposition, though fragmented, is showing signs of life.

The PDP has settled on Mustapha Sule Lamido, son of former governor Sule Lamido, as its consensus candidate, while the ADC’s Sabo Muhammad Nakudu, a former two term senator who defected from the APC, has emerged as a potential outlet for aggrieved APC members and protest votes; tellingly, Nakudu’s own local government area, Birnin Kudu, is also Lamido’s base, setting up a direct local contest between the two opposition figures even before either can turn attention to the APC.

The NDC remains, by most accounts, virtually absent in Jigawa. Major figures to watch are Namadi, Mustapha Sule Lamido and Nakudu, though observers broadly agree that fragmented opposition currently gives Namadi’s APC the upper hand.

Sokoto: Godfather politics and a caliphate’s influence

Sokoto is shaping into a key arena where incumbency, godfather politics and religious identity intersect. Governor Ahmed Aliyu has been affirmed as APC’s candidate for a second term, and his position is reinforced by the enduring patronage of Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, the state’s dominant political godfather, whose structure recaptured Sokoto from the PDP in 2023.

The ADC has stepped up grassroots mobilisation, attracting figures such as former Minister of Transport Yusuf Suleiman, former Deputy Governor Manir Muhammad Dan Iya and former commissioner Faruku Malami Yabo, while former governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal remains an influential, if now more nationally focused, factor; critics argue his own tenure left too little visible infrastructure to serve as a rallying point for a fresh opposition bid, even as his loyal supporters insist his national profile could still be converted into local votes if he chooses to re-engage directly.

Given the 2023 result of roughly 52 per cent to 47 per cent between APC and PDP, Sokoto has traditionally been a tight, two-party battleground, and the APC enters 2027 as the clear favourite chiefly because the opposition remains too divided to consolidate that latent competitiveness.

Zamfara: Defection can’t paper over old rivalries

Zamfara has for years been the most insecurity-ravaged state in the North West, with banditry disrupting farming, displacing communities and shaping every election since 2007. Governor Dauda Lawal, elected in 2023 on the PDP platform partly on a promise to end the state’s cycle of violence, defected to the APC in March 2026 after concluding that Zamfara was being starved of federal intervention funds available to APC controlled states.

The APC now holds a nominal edge through Lawal’s defection, formalised in a grand reception led by Vice President Kashim Shettima and attended by ten sister governors. Yet the party inherits deep, unresolved factional fault lines dating back to the 2023 defeat of then governor Bello Matawalle, whose rivalry with former governor Abdulaziz Yari undermined APC unity at the time. Both men remain influential within the party, alongside Senator Kabiru Marafa, whose own political journey, from APC to ADC to NDC within the space of weeks, illustrates the sheer instability of Zamfara’s political alignments.

The PDP, though it has lost its governor, retains surprising residual strength; party stalwarts continue purchasing nomination forms, and possible candidates such as Ibrahim Shehu Bakauye keep the party competitive, backed by former National Security Adviser Aliyu Muhammad, popularly known as Ali Gusau. The dominant issue remains, unambiguously, security, and whichever party voters trust most to end banditry, rather than party loyalty itself, is likely to decide the outcome.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, Zamfara’s opposition has defeated two sitting governors, in 2007 and again in 2023, a track record that makes any claim of permanent APC dominance here more fragile than the governor’s defection alone might suggest. Major figures include Lawal, Matawalle, Yari and Marafa, whose competing loyalties make Zamfara’s APC the most fragile of the seven North West chapters despite its formal dominance.

Tinubu and Kwankwaso: Where the two men stand

No comparison captures the shifting balance of power in the North West quite like placing President Tinubu side by side with Kwankwaso.

Tinubu enters 2027 with the institutional weight of incumbency behind him across the entire region. Every APC governor in the North West, Sani in Kaduna, Yusuf in Kano, Radda in Katsina, Idris in Kebbi, Namadi in Jigawa, Aliyu in Sokoto and now Lawal in Zamfara, has publicly endorsed his second term bid, and the North West APC Zone formally passed a vote of confidence in him at a stakeholders’ meeting in Kaduna, declaring, in the words of Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock.

Tinubu’s camp also points to 12 ministers, top National Assembly positions and senior security appointments drawn from the zone as evidence of inclusiveness, alongside the establishment of the North West Development Commission and improved security along previously impassable routes such as the Abuja to Kaduna road. His most consistent argument, advanced by former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, is structural, that with every governorship in the zone now in APC hands, the party’s mobilisation machinery across the North West’s roughly twenty million registered voters is simply unmatched.

Kwankwaso’s standing is narrower but, within its radius, arguably deeper. His authority rests almost entirely on the Kwankwasiyya movement, a personal political following built over two decades and two terms as Kano governor, rather than on any state level incumbency. Having left the NNPP, briefly passed through the ADC, and settled in the newly formed NDC alongside Peter Obi, Kwankwaso no longer commands a sitting government house anywhere in Nigeria, a fact Governor Yusuf himself has used to question his continued relevance.

Yet Kwankwaso’s loyalists, Gwarzo in Kano’s governorship race and Gawuna in the Kano Central senatorial contest, suggest his movement retains genuine grassroots pull even without executive power. Atiku Abubakar has publicly argued that Kwankwaso’s influence is confined to Kano State and further diluted there by Yusuf’s own following, a claim Kwankwaso has pointedly declined to contest directly, preferring instead to note that the two men may yet cooperate before 2027 despite their parties’ current separation.

Tinubu’s position in the North West is broad but institutional, resting on governors, federal appointments and party structure that could shift again if incumbents falter or defect once more, as the region’s recent history of realignment amply demonstrates. Kwankwaso’s position is narrow but personal, confined chiefly to Kano and its Kwankwasiyya diaspora, yet resilient precisely because it does not depend on controlling a government house.

Should the NDC and ADC eventually reunite, as Kwankwaso himself has suggested remains possible, the combined weight of Atiku’s northern networks, Obi’s southern and urban support, and Kwankwaso’s Kano stronghold could pose the most serious regional challenge Tinubu has faced since taking office. Until then, however, the APC’s structural capture of all seven North West governorships gives Tinubu a commanding, if not unassailable, advantage in the zone that will decide, more than any other, the shape of Nigeria’s 2027 general election.

Beyond party structures and personalities, one factor threads through every state examined here; the size and behaviour of the electorate itself. As Nigeria’s largest voting bloc, the North West is expected to play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, and political parties across all four platforms are therefore paying unusually close attention to voter registration, Permanent Voter Card collection and turnout across the region.

In a zone where insecurity has repeatedly kept rural voters from polling units, and where party loyalty has shown itself capable of shifting almost overnight, the party that succeeds in converting registered voters into actual ballots, rather than the party with the loudest endorsement or the most defectors, may ultimately prove the decisive force in 2027.

Infolenka:
Keivo you can run but you can't hide

eleshin:
You and ur voting pattern.

Oshokhai69:
Mercedes eviction sweet me die. How you go come house to showcase stripping and think it will take you far in the game just didn’t make any sense. And as she has been evicted, na straight to oblivion cos I no sure say people wey hold money go pay more to her as a stripper or OS. Who go pay more to her when better OS dey everywhere for Lagos?

Infolenka:
Mercedes evicted

Clement1111:
Do finalist get money aside the winner?

Titaniumental:
This Nomy girl should just calm down Becoming a villain doesn’t win this show sha

Evaress:
The weak housemates are oyin, cassie, goddessa, sultex, oyin , gerarld, mercedes. Have no fan base

Infolenka:
Chimsom named most influential player of the week and wins betpawa reward and gains immunity for this week