₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
How many votes did Atiku get in the South in 2023? In your view, can Tinubu get all his 5.6m Northern votes that he got in 2023? If not, who will those lost voters be voting for? Take away the money induced governors, has Tinubu gotten more popular or less popular among the electorates than he was in 2023?

That low votes Atiku got in the south is why he lost and will still lost. Tinubu getting votes from both north and south is why he won. Tinubu doesn't necessarily need to win anywhere but to get significant votes. Tinubu might have gotten weaker in some areas while getting stronger in other areas. Atiku has gotten weaker overall

AMINDA:
Would Obidients have voted Atiku with Obi as Vice? Tinubu won only 4 states out of 17 Southern states in 2023. He only became president due to the 5.6m votes he got in the North. If 2023 repeats itself, Atiku will score the highest votes cast. Even if he doesn't get the spread on first ballot (he might), the elections will go into a run-off.

Atiku cannot get the highest votes as far as he fails woefully in NC and south. Tinubu will get significant votes in the core north. 50% of obidients would reluctantly vote Atiku, they despise Tinubu

AMINDA:
To Tinubu's detriment. This means he can no longer campaign with "turn of the South". With Obi leaving the ADC, he now shares Tinubu's Southern votes with him and will most likely come out on top in the South. The question is, will the North come through for Tinubu in 2027 like they came through for him in 2023 when Obi mopped the floor with him across the South (including Lagos)?

To Atiku's detriment sir. As far as obi doesn't align with Atiku, Tinubu wins. Tinubu will get votes from the south and north, atiku is only restricted to his core north. No pathway down south

AMINDA:
Ojoro cancel ojoro. The implosion of APC is inevitable.

While your ADC is imploding

chukwutee:
With info and reality on ground now, obi won’t get half of apcs vote.

Possibly

FarahAideed:
Without rigging Tinubu cannot win any state outside the SW and SW will only vote him because of Tribalism and not performance

Kwara and kogi will always vote him

Felabrity:
Lol
Tinubu will not win any SS states, especially not Rivers since they were exposed in 2022 for manipulating the results.

I think he will win lagos with a landslide (through manipulation)
He will clear the whole SW too

He will win at least three SS states and if he doesn't, it will be by very narrow margins

Kdon2:
Benue, Edo, oyo, nasarawa, Kaduna is for Tinubu.

True but I am a bit lenient for obi

Bendeco02:
Without rigging or resul manipulation, me and you knows that tinubu cannot win any northern state.

In 2023, he managed to win 3 out of 13 NW and NE states with manipulation.

There was no evidence of manipulation from the NE/NW

TINUBU

Akwa ibom
Rivers
Bayelsa
Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Ondo
Ekiti
Kwara
Kogi
Niger
Sokoto
Zamfara
Jigawa
Borno
Yobe
Taraba


ATIKU
Adamawa
Bauchi
Gombe
Kebbi


OBI
Anambra
Enugu
Imo
Ebonyi
Abia
Delta
Edo
Plateau

Unpredictable
Katsina
Cross river
Kaduna
Oyo
Benue
Nasarawa
Kano

PassingShot:
This one will lose against any APC standardbearer.

Barr. Sharafadeen Ali or Bayo Adelabu will beat him hands down.

Sharafadeen Alli it is not Adelabu. Can you do your normal presidential predictions

AMINDA:
Dry your tears, Ayade. That's his stock in trade. As far as Tinubu is concerned, no good deed goes unpunished.

Sharap. Can't you see that Ayade is heavily hated in CRS?Ayade is a political liability. Your ADC can have Ayade. This is one of the reasons APC keeps winning,they go for the best

fergie001:
It was cross-appealed Sir. The Appeal Court upheld their suspension!
They cross-appealed and the Supreme Court dismissed for lack of merit.

Wabara's tenure still active.

Wabara was expelled

fergie001:
Dem sack Anyanwu Abi dem no sack am?

They didn't. It wasnt part of what was litigated. Again wabara tenure has expired

AMINDA:
Most of Akume's men already defected from the APC. Will they come back? The rift between Akume and Alia is not the kind that can be settled with mere presidential directive and press statement. It goes deeper than that.

Pantami just rejected the consensus candidate chosen in Gombe and is set to head to court. Adelabu has done same in Oyo and IG in Nassarawa. In Kano, Abba has denied Barau, Ado Doguwa, Kawu Samaila, and others return tickets. The implosion is inevitable.

Sen. Tanko Al-makure has a right to his opinion, but he has no right on other things he doesn’t know, even if he gave birth to me. If I decide to go and brief President Tinubu with a prepared candidate, and I didn't carry Sen. Almakure along, that is not his right.

- Gov. Sule… pic.twitter.com/wGWt7ywBkp

— Imran Muhammad (@Imranmuhdz) May 3, 2026

Which of Akume men decamped? You clearly know nothing about politics. Your ADC just collapsed and you are still hoping of APC imploding

Coolgent:
So Peter Obi has allowed himself to be fooled by Kwankwaso, who has reportedly been covertly working for Tinubu since 2022.
I cease to be obedient from today!

Who will win sokoto

fergie001:
Regrettably, like I did in May 2022

I congratulate President Bola Tinubu on his re-election as President of World's most populous black nation.

We will continue to put you on your toes and ensure that democracy will not die. Whilst I congratulate you, I believe that you have sunk this country far low, hopefully you have time to write your name in the history books, I wish you well.

Tinubu has empowered so many Igbos, I believe this will give him more votes

fergie001:
How are you sure he will get the numbers in the SE..
The SE is more interested in State politics and NASS than Federal. People won't come out like in 2023 for sure....

Obi will still sweep SE but Tinubu will have more votes Sha.

fergie001:
Obi won't win the Primary against Atiku and Amaechi.

2023 all over again except that obi isn't winning SS this time

Otamendi99:
Tinubu will win SW and NC
Atiku- NE and NW
Obi- SS and SE.

Tinubu will come second in all zones he doesn't win.
All the votes gotten by Atiku in the South were majorly because of PDP structure. He will lose 70% of them. Because there will be no top Member to support him.
The SE will be more angrier at him for pushing obi out of ADC. Screenshot this

Tinubu will win that nw

Saladdin:
Which North? Maybe Abeokuta North LGA sha.

Because it can't be the North where he arrogantly refused to leave the airport to visit citizens you govern by saying "no light".

Hope you know that in some certain parts of Northern Nigeria, people are being warned that whoever bring spaghetti and co to buy votes will be flogged ditto whoever collects it.

Better wake up and smell the coffee we are taking back our country!

Same north he won 2023? My dear Tinubu will have significant votes up north whether he wins it or not

fergie001:
Abbo is her deputy

Her fate is sealed. It seems Fintiri is fronting Galadima or Aminu iya

carzeem1:
Atiku will inherit a chunk of Buhari's Northern support, he has a strong reach in North east and always delivers most of the states there.

Also since Buhari is gone, Northwest is open for taking by either atiku or kwankwaso (most popularNorthern politician today). Tinubu will make do with what his APC governors can galvanise for him.

Atiku has lost Taraba, lost grounds in Adamawa and Bauchi. Atiku cant inherit buhari votes as they don't share similar ideology. He can only win narrowly. I expect Tinubu to win north west

fergie001:
Obi is moving most likely, but it's NDC or PRP (that's the rumour)!

He can still go back to Lp or apga

AMINDA:
But he had over a million votes in the NC in 2023 when the clamour for "turn of the South" was more stronger than now. He also got more votes overall in the Southwest than Peter Obi and actually won Osun state. This was despite the fact that he contested after 8 years of Buhari with a lot of Northerners like Elrufai opting to vote Tinubu as payback for his support to Buhari in 2015. All these factors no longer exists, including the muslim-muslim ticket that helped Tinubu in the North.

He has gotten weaker in the north central, Tinubu has gotten stronger.atiku can't get 25% in any southern state but Tinubu will win a couple of southern states. No way for Atiku except with obi

fergie001:
The opposition is now divided because Bindow will run for ADC.

If she picks someone popular from human axis, she wins. She still remains the most popular

AMINDA:
In Katsina, APC is sharing tickets to cronies and elites while blindsiding grassroots politicians all in the name of conscensus. Even Buhari’s son, Yusuf is not on ground. The governor is thinking he can benefit off sympathy votes by bringing in Buhari’s son but he's about to find out how wrong he is.

Tinubu is winning Katsina

AMINDA:
Majority votes in the Northeast and Northwest. Decent performance in the Northcentral and a good showing in the Southwest with Seyi Makinde and the legacy PDP's structure as brokered at the Ibadan Declaration. In all possible scenarios, Atiku will emerge with the highest votes even if he fails to get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run off in the worst case scenario. Elrufai already predicted this outcome a long time ago. What a genius he is. No wonder Tinubu has him incarcerated for a bailable allegation. He's the real master strategist and he made Tinubu president.

He can't have a decent performance in north central. He can win north east and west but won't sweep. He will have a disastrous outing down south. Tinubu will have more votes than him

happney65:
Add Ondo too if Seyi is VP candidate. Maybe a triple horse race is not bad afterall because Tinubu seems to have lost all goodwill in the North

Tinubu will win the north

AMINDA:
I can assure you that Tinubu has no organic supporter anywhere in the country as at today except those on payroll. This is apart from a few that has been radicalised in selected parts of the Southwest under so-called Yoruba conservatism. The real spirit of Omoluabi will triumph over conservatism come 2027. Tinubu has no pathway to re-election. He must have seen several polls on this. This is why he's actively trying to use the courts to disqualify his opponents.

So what is the pathway for Atiku

fergie001:
I understand the meeting is currently holding @ Miller Road.

Is obi joining him at NDC

fergie001:
Fintiri will be so happy.

Why so? All she needs is to pick a mate from Adamawa south