₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
The North that gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. Traditionally, the NE and NW vote one-way but in 2023, they altered their voting pattern and splitted their votes 3-ways between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso to accommodate Tinubu. Northcentral will always get split no matter the permutation and in 2023, all three major candidates got over a million votes each from the region. Tinubu's win in the NC was marginal. The Christians in the North largely voted Obi in 2023 and while this may appear to have changed, it remains dicey for Tinubu and may quickly change if he goes ahead with a muslim-muslim ticket while other parties balance their ticket. The perceived support Tinubu currently enjoys among Christians in the NC is because he has tacitly implied that he will be conceding the VP ticket to the middlebelt come 2027.

Tinubu victory over Atiku in north central wasn't marginal, stop disgracing yourself. He won Atiku by a margin of 800k more than the winning margins in NE or NW. It will grow bigger this time. Their suport for Tinubu is due to his liberalism, his fight against insecurity esp benue plateau axis and allaying fears of marginalization and not because of any vp ticket

Svoboda:
The north believes this is Atikus time, as it is last chance saloon for him. This is whether you like it or not. An Atiku on the ballot would be Tinubus biggest headache. Tinubu should be wary of an Atiku without a Buhari on the horizon. Even some singing Tinubus mandate in the north are with Atiku. I fully agree that Obi/Kwankwaso stands no chance, no matter how tantalising that prospect might seem.

Atiku in 2023 with six governors failed woefully, an Atiku with no governor won't fly.. no matter how much the north votes him, it won't exceed 60%. Atiku Achilles heel remains north central. Atiku needs a running mate with a powerful warchest which rules out obi. Amechi, Makinde, Udom Emmanuel, Seriake Dickson are the only ones available which will turn into a rout

OredoPikin:
I wondered why ADC haven't collapsed into NDC
NDC is a new party and Seriake Dickson won't betray the party else he would have followed the governor to APC
NDC will produce the next bayelsa state governor

NDC can't produce anything, focus on your Edo

AMINDA:
Bala Mohammed may join the NDC along with Seyi Makinde. Goodluck Jonathan is also being courted to fly the party's ticket. He may choose Bala as Vice. Jonathan on the ballot will serve as a third force and will further complicate things for Tinubu in the SS and NC.

If Gej didn't fly PDP in 2019 or 2023, he won't join a dead NDC in2023, you clearly don't know politics. He would rather complicate things for Atiku as he would share from Atiku votes in core north.

malton:
Wadada is Gobirawa from Kebbi State.

He is a native of nasarawa

Svoboda:
Remember, Tinubu won with the least vote in the history of our modern day elections.

I said, Modern day elections. In this context, is 45 years ago modern?

Tinubu had four major contestants unlike others plus technology has reduced votes inflation. Shagari won awolowo with a slimmer margin and in 1983 won with a landslide. Same with obj. We don't know if ADC will be on the ballot, you can see brewing infighting among major aspirants from their latest comments

Svoboda:
You want to compare Tinubus abysmal popularity with that of Obj or 2011 Gej? Remember, Tinubu won with the least vote in the history of our modern day elections. More people voted against him than voted for him. My prayer is that obi is in one way or the other on the ballot.

This is untrue, the lowest votes ever recorded was by Shagari in 1979. He had 5.8 million. This false record shows you don't know your electoral demography, it is all about emotions from you. It depends on how obi contests. If he contests separately like in 2023, it makes it a easier as he would still Atiku votes again. If he pairs with Atiku, it will be hard for Tinubu. If he pairs with kwankwaso, the election is a formality...but from all indications, Atiku will pair with Makinde or Amechi or someone from the west...

Buhari lowest percentage in core north was 65% against obj and Gej who had massive elite support. Atiku can't get more than 60%.,highest should be 55% but I'll put it at 60%. NW total votes will be 6 million, Atiku takes 3.6 mil, Tinubu 2.4 mil. NE Atiku takes 1.8 mil, Tinubu 1.2 mil. NC Tinubu takes 2 mil, Atiku 1 mil. SW Tinubu takes 3 mil, Atiku 1 mil. SS Tinubu takes 1 mil Atiku 5 SE Tinubu takes 300k Atiku 100k that's if we use buhari analogy for a best case scenario for Atiku. If you add obi to Atiku, Tinubu will narrowly win by 200k...
There's no pathway for Atiku except he gets the political gladiators in the north on his side and win north central like buhari

Svoboda:
So you believe any politician working for Atiku in the north would reveal his hands so early? In 2023, yobe state gov worked for Atiku silently. Did he come out publicly to support him? Even Tinubu knows he has traitors within his ranks in the APC, and that's why they're scattering opposition parties, and now they're gaslighting Atiku with southern unity nonsense. With obi on the ballot, it makes things worse for Tinubu. Without obi, Tinubu is going to suffer a weak outcome in the south because of voter apathy. Even Buhari as a northerner had more frenzy in the south during his re-election in 2019 than what Tinubu can boast of currently. This is because the south lacks any real motivation to vote. Tinubu has performed poorly. I even want obi to decamp and run on his own, to eat up what's left off for Tinubus in the Ss. SE is a no go area. In the end, Tinubus victory in the south west will be useless in the final analysis.

Tinubu knew Buni will work against him that is why he set up another campaign headed by Geidam. Same in nasarawa yet it ended in failure. Even if there's voter apathy in the south, Atiku will fail woefully. But Tinubu will get 25% or more in most northern states and win north central. Tinubu will get the spread, Atiku won't. Even if obi wins SE, Tinubu will still flog Atiku there, nothing for your Atiku.... In 2023, there was also apathy up north. They don't rate Atiku

Look at another angle. Buhari with his popularity failed to sweep core north in 2003 and 2011. Obj got over 35% in core north, winning buhari in kaduna, Niger state. He only failed to get 25% in zamfara, kano and Borno. Majority of the political bigwigs supported him. In 2011, Gej replicated this because majority of the governors where with him. In 2015, majority of the political gladiators switched to buhari allowing him to get a landslide. Gej could only get 25% in kaduna, Taraba and Adamawa for obvious reasons. If a whole Buhari couldn't sweep the north against obj and Gej who had little structure and alliances in the core north, how will a largely unpopular Atiku do it against Tinubu who has massive long term alliances up north? Just accept the truth objectively, Atiku has no pathway. You need massive network of alliances. Even buhari needed alliances in the north central and south. Atiku has failed and will always fail.

Svoboda:
I didn't make reference to whom he was working for. Wadada isn't the only politician in nasarawa, is he? No politician is as strong as Atiku in the north right now. Tinubu knows this, and he is beginning to exploit southern unity fears. Unfortunately, it won't fly this time around.

Without obi on the ballot, Tinubu wins southern Nigeria by a landslide including the SE. No need for southern unity. All the strong politicians in nasarawa are with Tinubu just like in all the north central states.
Atiku is the strongest in the north but a tree cannot make a forest. He needs other strong politicians to help him in the north which he won't get. Atiku himself said kwankwaso is only popular in Kano and not beyond. He even admitted that Kano is divided. He knows the truth unlike his followers like you

Svoboda:
Wadada is an old war horse.

He is working for Tinubu, no one for Atiku. Pathetic

Digitron:
False. Muslims are clear minority and they know it.

Muslims dominate 7 lgas

Digitron:
No, 60-65% Christians

It's 50 50

Svoboda:
Ombugadu fell to his own sword politically with his eratic decision. Not a lot of his people still trust him.

Wadada is the most popular politician in nasarawa and from nasarawa west where zoning falls on. Although this is the right choice, I am surprised as Senator Abdullahi Adamu despises him

Allee90:
And Tinubu can never win in Kano and Jigawa States

Tinubu won Jigawa last time and got 30% in kano

franchasng:
Okay, normal, most of them there don't even know why they are boeing to start with

Will you say this if they boo APC

ARISHEM:
And you Pantami will never enter any political position because your motives are questionable

If APC has to retain Gombe, let pantami fly the flag

Svoboda:
It rains, you get wet. He could have resisted interest in contesting for senate after his tenure. I remember this issue was brought up during his second term bid, but not with enough intensity. It seems we have a lot of shady characters from that part of the country in politics. We had late Buruji Kasunmu with a drug tainted history. Last year or thereabout, Dapos aide was arrested on charges of fraud in the US, so the governor is in good company.

There's no hope for ADC in Ogun at the presidential or national assembly level except Guber is Adebutu contests. ADC are absent in so many states, they will take a massive beating

fergie001:
Looks like the person sponsoring this CSO was seated on the table with him yesterday.

You mean Gbenga Daniels

zinowealth:
I said it on X some weeks ago. Northerners will shock Tinubu. Especially those he gave billions to decamp to APC. Northerners know Tinubu don’t give a tuck about them. He is only using them to gain a forever leader ambition. But these northerners are the king of Nigeria politics

This guy has always been pro Atiku so no need. Most of the top politicians up north are pro Tinubu

dalongjnr:
The north is going ADC,JUST AS with ANPP IN 2003 & 2007.
What they need is a strong alliance with the southeast with a viable candidate like Peter obi or Ameachi.
The reason why Buhari failed in 2003,2007 and 2007 was because of lack of a viable vice presidential candidate, from late prof onu obonnaya and pastor Tunde bakare.

They lack a buhari so no chance. Atiku can't win north central. This guy is a nobody in zamfara, the top guns are all in APC

fergie001:
His father's decision.

Very pro-Atiku.

You mean Aliyu gusau? A waste, zamfara is settled

fergie001:
The hearing of both suits will be on Tuesday, however, due to the hierarchy of the Courts, Nwite will step down the case until the SC has dispensed with the interlocutory appeal.

Like I have said, because of the effluxion of time, I support the appeal to SC.
If their lawyers know what they are doing .. the trial Court had determined the rights of the parties hence, the final judgement.

But you know the SC won't give a stay order

Leepeak:

E go clear for APC eye
All the big men of the north are not with him, day before yesterday immediately he left bayelsa people pull down his bill board
Make he revised the tantita contract from tompolo hand, give itsekiri man where him wife come from, and see how he will lose ijaw with style, even sheriff of delta state nor sure
U have all the 33 governor and u dey fear

E go clear for your obidients eyes. All the big men up north are with him..
Thank goodness you concede that ijaws are with him. Bayelsa people only struggled to use his billboards and posters for domestic purpose and not maliciously. Tinubu will win again, it will be very sad for you

Emusan:
Keep dancing around.

Tinubu can't win South South.

Put your money.

I've told you the margin for winning North Central will be very minimal.

So, how will that translate to winning the election?

I like the fact you didn't bother yourself about North West that account for 28-30% of total vote in Nigeria.

I can put my money when we meet physically. Tinubu will win SS with a wide margin against Atiku and narrowly against obi. He will defeat Atiku massively in north central and obi marginally. His losing in north west and north east will be minimal. You, Atiku and obi and the ones dancing around. Tinubu has a bigger chance of winning north west than Atiku but I will leave it narrowly for Atiku as a worst case scenario..
North West having the largest voting strength means nothing except well utilized buhari did. Their turn up in 2023 was abysmal and it was tight. It will remain so
I will leave north east for Atiku based on home factor but Tinubu will likely win more states there. Atiku has grown more weaker in core north than Tinubu.

Emusan:
List the four regions he will win and put your money.

Sorry three. South west, South south, north central. Obi wins SE

Emusan:
And winning North Central alone will give him the victory.

It's good as you know that no part way for him in North West & East unlike 2023.

Besides, the margin of winning in North Central won't be 'Bigger gap' as you earlier said.

Winning 4 regions is ok. He will get significant votes in core north if he loses

Emusan:
Can you put your money especially that NORTH? APC will not get have of what they got in 2023 in the North.

I don't even want to disturb myself on South.

Tinubu will win north central. He will be reelected overall

Emusan:
So he will divide the North this time not having the highest vote in the North like 2023. The reality is start to dawn on you.

So, where will he get the remaining votes from?

As it is Tinubu can't get up to 5m votes as he gotten in 2023 in the North and there's no how he can get above the 3m he got in the South too.

That was a worse case scenario. But I see him winning the north with a bigger gap. Tinubu will win the south by a larger margin this time. Who is winning Tinubu, is it obi or Atiku

mrvitalis:
Tinubu can't be reelected that's a fact even his biggest supporters know this
His best bet is rigging and Nigerians already planned for that

Please join INEC ad hoc staff and attempt to rig, come with income voting materials or fake results sheet... See if you won't meet God

How will he be defeated? If Atiku is the candidate, Tinubu will bury him down south and divide north and if obi is the candidate, Tinubu buries him up north. So show me how Tinubu loses

mrvitalis:
Lol 🤣🤣 PRP Was always the plan lmao I knew ADC was camouflage from the start it was too obvious... Tinubu fell for the trap

The protest was to lure him to go all in on the onslaught

Lol, there was no trap. You cannot outsmart Tinubu. Just keep your hatred aside and accept that tinubu will be reelected sir. Anywhere there go, wahala go burst

opeldavid:
There is absolutely no path way for Tinubu in 2027.

Even if the opposition party adopts a new party a minute to the deadline, Tinubu will still be defeated clearly.

That is certain.

What is the pathway of victory for ADC

Emusan:
Abuja upward...

Just say Abuja which is obidient. Tinubu will divide the north