₦airaland Forum

KarlTom:
100%.

It will shock you to know that many wealthy Nigerians (home or abroad) do not do stocks but prefer fixed instruments...

You may be right I don't know. A lot do have their money in the NGX in the businesses they run (directly or indirectly) and many others like NSEMPA people have a chuck of their portfolio in NGX. See current NGX top investors in the attached picture

crownprince2017:
For the fact that FPIs does it doesn't make it right, may be they believed exchange rate will be more when they want to repatriate at maturity. I sincerely doubt they based their projections based on that 20% alone for that long looking at the past trends.

The discussion is not about wrong or right. But about market opportunities and options.

Nigeria has a lot of untapped comparative advantages waiting to be tapped. Nigeria is an emerging market. If the anticipated growth scenario of unleashing growth occurs Nigeria should be earning far more forex than it currently earns with an unleashed GDP. In this scenario the stock market will grow exponentially or at least massively and the exchange rate will be stabilized like it happened for South Korea decades ago.

crownprince2017:
What will be the value of that 20% in 7 or 10 years to come, it's almost certain that the time value of the money will be eroded looking at the trend. Every mallam with his kettle.

Individuals and Fund managers balance their portfolio somehow as no one is certain of the future.

For example, I understand FPI's bought 79% of the fat N1T FG bonds sold in Feb 2024. These were the 2031 & 2034 bond debuts. Definitely they made their calculations, took their risks and injected the $$$'s into NGN bonds with hope of profit .

https://guardian.ng/news/foreign-investors-buy-79-of-oversubscribed-cbn-bonds/

Picky1:
Thank you Bros! Please looking at the JUN 2038 and JAN 2042 which will you invest on and why?
Not trying to derail the thread.....
Note: Also good ideas are welcome from members!
Too many calculations....to find kudi no easy o

A bargain hunter will chase the 2031 & or 2034 to get a yield of 20% yearly as implied for the next 7 or 10 years. Those targeting cash flows at specific months may choose those that align with their desired month. Won't be surprised some long-term investors may be tempted to sell DS or other stocks to lock-in a fixed 20% income yearly.

Frangel:
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
This almighty metric, I see folks refer to most times, does not necessarily show the financial health or performance of a company. It is the easiest to manipulate/distort. To create an impressive EPS, management could ship-out products/services towards year end to create higher-than-normal sales, which will eventually add to the bottomline from which EPS is derived. Other forms of financial abracadabra could include suppressing expenses or losses, etc. BunmiOni's Cadbury comes to mind.

It is advisable to also look at the Statement of Financial Position (SFP), pay attention to the shareholders' fund and its components, level of gearing, etc. Also, look at the notes to the accounts for details of some unusual items in the P&L and SFP, in addition to other news about the company.

I often advise that sustainable investing in shares is more of a marathon than a sprint.

PS: Above might not be too relevant to those focused on TA or unorthodox approach to investing.

For Banks and a few companies that have financial instruments, the EPS based on PAT doesn't represent the full value of accrued benefits to shareholders compared to comprehensive income per share (CIPS). And it is the comprehensive income that shareholders are entitled to that gets added to shareholder funds. FA Bank investors, need to pay attention to CIPS also, along with EPS & the shareholders' fund and its components.

sky2891:
I doubt if they will until the dust settles.
They need something to spike the speedy movement of the price after the delisting saga is settled.
My opinion

That will be a good move.

ndept:
The date for the oando court case is April 17, still much time.

So three more weeks to go. Let's see if it will make a new pre-court outcome high. And breakaway thereafter Or come back to a new higher low. Made dem do quick release 2022 & 2023 financial statements.

Locotrader:
Expect 20-25% upside from oando by next weekend. I smell minor bull in the stock starting from Monday.

If the court case ends by chance this time around it will be breakout from the gbelo gbebo

Locotrader:
Una Don plan for another price push up as court case is approaching. I won't be surprise to see oando around #15 region before court case.

You mean another push up cycle may be coming. The price in the last one or two weeks have averaged around 11.4
It will do as if it wants to go up, then offers will start coming in trickles again pulling the price down. While all the time demand is always more than offers with people demanding at much lower prices

thebargainhunte:
Oando faithfuls

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nigerianobservernews.com/2024/03/edo-oando-to-generate-175mw-wind-energy-for-industrial-clusters/%3famp

Good Oando/Edo state news.
Nigeria needs good success in expanding electricity generation sources and capacity. Make Wale forget the buy out. Make buy out no happen.

FBNH Board Appointments.

Looks interesting.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40573_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-NOTIFICATION_OF_RECENT_DEVELOPMENTS_IN_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2024.pdf

yMcy56:
ZENITH @39.10
FBNH @37
Baton changed hands again.....

Profit takes no gree Elephant beat Zenith

Streetinvestor2:
Watin happen. That means thr could be hope for oando shareholders. Has sec changed management or Pz bribe was not large enough...naija my country .You want to pay #23 for something that is now #40 on nse

Let Oando price climb up to safegaurd the hope double fold.

A very high buy out price if it must happen which is going to be challenged by shareholders who want to benefit from the turnaround. Any buyout short of the highest PO with time value of money interest must be rejected.

Outright cancellation of the buy out. Those that want to exit can sell on NGX. Oando currently top quartile in terms of value of transactions on NGX so those that want a buy out or want to leave can still leave. While those that want to stay can enjoy the turnaround in full.

BabsO2:
There is a long queue of offers waiting for the FBNH bull at various junctions
Make the FBNH bull no gree especially for the bearish offers that are below last closing price.
At least let FBNH keep Zenith below it while preparing to catch GTCO.

Chai the FBNH bull could not clear the long queue with 38million units swallowed today. What a long queue of Shareholders wanting to lock some profits.

Streetinvestor2:
I thought cbn said this banks should be gearing up for recapitalisation. Whr is access getting the capital for all this acquisition if thr base has gone down because of exchange rate.
It looks this is the way top management of access is using to steal from itself. The next is to be booking losses from operations of the overseas branches

Acquisition if done well is expansion and growth in capital base. It's paying of dividends that depletes capital of a bank. So banks need to balance paying too much in dividends with organically growing their capital base from retained profits.

dapix:
FBNH no wan gree for anyone o

There is a long queue of offers waiting for the FBNH bull at various junctions
Make the FBNH bull no gree especially for the bearish offers that are below last closing price.
At least let FBNH keep Zenith below it while preparing to catch GTCO.

maishai:
Ogami, if u Don tey for this market, these are extremely high prices, all figures on my portfolio are extremely green

Like I say, I'm locking my profits in money markets......

It took years of bear markets to get here ..........

All our fundamentalist have gone asleep

Many bought fbnh that is making rounds here circa #5( more than 800% profit)

Biko I no border my brain but I'm still in d market though I'm selling my wares not buying

My average for FBNH before I started selling small small was N5
Due to devaluation, the so called high prices of banks is not real. As the prices are better underpinned by book values and EPS unlike previous peaks. So there are probalilities for further upsides if impairment charges do not create much damage. Also if all these examinations do not turn up something bad. https://moneycentral.com.ng/exclusive/article/panic-in-banks-as-cbn-sends-special-examiners-over-n20trn-owner-related-loans/

Streetinvestor2:
With this figures. Do you think fbn could surprise the market with dividend of like #3.00. Since ote is now the chairman and knows how to share the money

N2 to 4 looks doable. I will not be surprised if N3 is paid. I will only be surgrised if less than N1.5 is paid.

BabsO2:
I am wondering too what is happening in FBNH. My suspicion is it is not about results beyond what has already been released as unaudited 2023 FY. That unaudited result indicated a book Value of N47, EPS of N 8.56 and Comprehensive Income per Share of N 20. Ideally the EPS should be repeatable year in and year out going forward with increments sef. While the Comprehensive per share suggest a mark of N12 per share from forex gains (Realized & Unrealized) at (perhaps exchange rate of +/-N850) Hence Ote$ or another major investor see's the bank as grossly undervalued and is taking his or her position and in the process bringing out the correct valuation in the market.

Any one selling FUGAZ and the others right now, thinking they will tank because of high interest rates in the money markets may regret it.
FBNH looks juicy though for small profit taking.

Streetinvestor2:
The big question is what is behind fbn rise.Is it possible the result coming or manipulation by otedola and Co.I don't want to see fbn fall back to #20 plus if thr is no serious FA backing this result
I am so tempted to japa from fbn then something else Is saying wait and see result/dividend declared
BE here na #6 plus

I am wondering too what is happening in FBNH. My suspicion is it is not about results beyond what has already been released as unaudited 2023 FY. That unaudited result indicated a book Value of N47, EPS of N 8.56 and Comprehensive Income per Share of N 20. Ideally the EPS should be repeatable year in and year out going forward with increments sef. While the Comprehensive per share suggest a mark of N12 per share from forex gains (Realized & Unrealized) at (perhaps exchange rate of +/-N850) Hence Ote$ or another major investor see's the bank as grossly undervalued and is taking his or her position and in the process bringing out the correct valuation in the market.

debeey87:
Why do you think Tony and family bought back into transcorp last year. Whatever they sold at the time that post was made must have been bought between the time Otedola almost did a hostile takeover and when customs street told us here that some large purchases will be made at about 6-7 naira all within last year.

Searching further Ote$ was even in Transcorp from the beginnings.
Looks like the company passed through various phases of uncertainty.
Tony over time took control and bought in more and more (perhaps codedly). And returned strongly recently (perhaps over the last 10 years and even more over the last two years when Ote$ attempted a late repositioning).

I was searching for the name of the other Tony (younger than Tony Elumelu) that at one time led Trasnsorp. And there seem to be no trace of his name on the web. Please does anyone remember the full name of this other Tony.

BabsO2:
Was searching for something and this 2020 post came up
Some may still hold this perception.
Time will tell - It's a great gem through the leadership of Tony Elumelu or ?.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/03/07/the-journey-that-led-the-listing-of-transcorp-power-plc/
See the interesting recollection in this article. See Transcorp's hardwork behind the scenes that lead to TransPower.

emmanuelewumi:
It appears Transcorpse is a scam, with its extraordinary 44 billion outstanding shares.

Tony's holdings has reduced, UBA Nominees is now the largest shareholder of the company.

When insiders are reducing their holdings and offloading to UBA Nominees that should tell you something

Was searching for something and this 2020 post came up
Some may still hold this perception.
Time will tell - It's a great gem through the leadership of Tony Elumelu or ?.

unite4real:
which bull did you see today on MTN?

Don't know where the MTN came from. I was referring to the Elephant bull
I have edited the post to correct z error.

FBNH selling at N40 right now. This FBNH bull means serious business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-14/ngn-usd-naira-official-black-market-rates-converge-goldman-sachs-sees-gains

Abeg make the naira start gaining quickly

Mfunkynation:
are you sure it is not your network

Yes looks like internet service instability today added to the problems. Some websites even had difficulty opening up too. While others were not as smooth as other days.

TsarZed:
Will the Banking rally continue?

Will TransPower continue to gain?

I think the Bank rally will continue with or without FPI's coming in as many are underpriced. The rally will surely be boosted if FPI's come in, but that may not be a good thing on the long run if the GDP doesn't benefit in terms of export growth.

I also think TransPower rally will continue at a slower pace and may not go above N500 this year. But will not be surprised of pull backs now and then to as low as N350.

Are FPI's coming ?
Stock market surges to highest level in one month as investors await FPIs
The Nigerian stock market, the NGX appreciated to its highest level in nearly a month as investors positioned for the much-anticipated return of FPIs. The All-Share Index appreciated by 1.45%, representing a 1,479.60-point gain from yesterday’s 102,044.84 to close at 103,524.44 points

https://nairametrics.com/2024/03/12/stock-market-surges-to-highest-level-in-one-month-as-investors-await-fpis/?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Zenter-System&utm_campaign=%23104842+%3D%3E+MORNING+NEWS+HEADLINES&utm_content=71043eb8ce939a781ee004f5918df06ad94def69

If FPI's enter UBA they will get it for cheap. The problem is when they exit they will cash out on Nigerian investors.

Princkez:
VOLUME of TRANSCORP traded in last few days....

Heavy interest and accumulations for over a year that has moved it from N1 to what we have today.
Last year April was a MASSIVE volume with 5.4b units traded.

BullBearMkt:
Is the Banking Sector Preparing for a Potential Decline Ahead of Results Release?
Based on the chart, banking sector outlook looks suspious for another downturn. The month of January candlestick reveals significant sellers coming to the market driving the index from 11031.04 to a close at 866.93. Both the bulls and bears were undecided on whether to continue draggiing the index further down or drag it up in February. The 2 months invariably created a big barrier (894.93 - 979.65) for March, as it has to close above 980 before there can be respite for the index to tick up.

Failure for the banking sector index to close above the top of the barrier in the ongoing month, will see a decline in the sector (and many banking stocks) in the coming month(s)

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Prices inching up gradually in bank shares. UBA now back to N24. I hope the sector index will close above the top barrier this month.

Mpeace:
Fir the third week now, volume has been massive. Something might just be about to happen.

It is clearer with the listing of Transpower that Trancorp Plc has more values waiting to be unlocked. Some don't have the patience to wait for the unlocking of values or don't trust Tony and want to run with the money (or a part of the money) they see today. While some strategic investors (most likely big funds) are now ready to take positions and participate in the future growth of Transcorp Plc.