₦airaland Forum

Transcorp is a HOLD for me on Monday at current market price.

Transcorp reached an all time high of N19.2 on 18-January-2024.

Since Transcorp was listed, this same January 2024 recorded the highest Trade value of N26.3 billion with a trade volume of 1.75 billion shares. In other words 4.3% of Transcorp Plc changed hands this January at an average price of N15.02

In February N9.6 billion changed hands in Transcorp on the exchange.

If one follows the money, there is surely value in Transcorp PLC for such huge interest in January and February by big funds.

My Guess is Transcorp Plc will continue to own a fraction of Transcorp Power PLC that will be listed. It will continue to benefit from it fundamentally in terms of dividend income stream. It will also benefit from it when computing its Shareholder funds.

Key information we need to record are ownership fractions before and after listing ?

Streetinvestor2:
The market don dey make me vex.i was expecting the red to last till Friday oh.i was expecting green to come back on Monday.i was hoping to complete my bet on oando by Friday, lol.which kind yeye red for just a day after everything.

I checked a few minutes ago. All the available offers for OANDO were cleared. Silent mopping (betting) on Oando is ongoing.

Streetinvestor2:
I don't follow for bear thing. I still bought oando for #10 yesterday for my #20 from Wale.My transcorp bid at 12.50 still dey market and oando at #9 .
I no fit fall mugu for this market again. For now I am ok with the quantity in alhaji

I bought more Oando at N11 by selling FBNH at N34 this week as good swap prices came up.

Looks like some big funds are mopping up Bank shares. With the lead in FBNH. Some people may lose out selling cheaply if they are not skilled traders. I think Nigerian banks are still under-priced especially those that can reduce impairment losses in this tough times. Their book values will continue to soar along with their earnings per share. The only con I see is some people bad mouthing Nigeria Bank profits in this current clime. Luckily they are not in leadership positions in Government.

STOCKPICK:
Thank you so much Sir. This has made my day and it's convincing Enough. I have decided to leave it with my brokers. Thank you so much Sir. I appreciate you greatly

However note. The only risk I see of a bank or broker holding the bonds on one's behalf is the bonds are in their name (and they managed it as a mini fund sort of). Thus it's good to buy through a reputable broker or solid bank and not one that can fold up. Also one needs to keep his or her records for proof purposes.

STOCKPICK:
Sir, please what do CSCS charge as custody fee for FGN bonds moved from my bank to my CSCS. Are there other charges Sir? Thank you Sir

Note: There is a poor market for bonds through CSCS. But through the bank holding it there is a good market. This note is needed if one changes mind and need to sell in future.

Also CSCS held bond do suffer prompt coupon payment sometimes and one may have to go back and forth to claim missed coupons.

At expiration redemption one needs to complete forms for CSCS held bonds. Unlike bank held bonds that doesn't entail such stress.

These were my experiences with CSCS held bonds. Perhaps things might improve over time. These issues make me to prefer bank managed bonds.

I see the market staying green for the rest of the year. However, a couple of stocks may suffer. Some traders may create panic sell-offs also.

Market staying green for the year is premised on CBN succeeding with exchange rate below N1,600 and increased food production during this planting season. However, if exchange rate continues on upwards journey, that is a bad signal for the market. Or if more insecurity is recorded in farms that's another bad signal.

sterlingD:
But what about government itself the economic team (Minister of finace and co ...etc when CBN plays its card they should play their card to strike a balance and balance up

I believe Mr Market is watching all of them closely and will respond ahead of economic data releases That means if Mr Market senses things are going to get worse some months ahead with companies earning less and less money, Mr Market will start going down today. However if he sees increasing Naira earnings per share and increasing valuations months ahead, Mr Market will start rising today

thebargainhunte:
The bolded no follow at all except there is unforseen circumstances and not MPR above 22%. Even the increase cannot last that long or else what we will have is a battered economy.

Agree with you on this. MPR at 22% (with a wide margin of +1%/-7%) cannot keep interest rates at +20% for more than 2 to 3 months without severe damage to the economy from a non-enduring monetary policy. CBN needs to tread cautiously.

yMcy56:
FBNH got close to ZEE and retraced for the 2nd time......
The Elephant may still stage a comeback again in near future. Some strong forces seems to be behind the wheels. Lol.
Na my amateur opinion oo.

Many waited for FBNH bull to lift it to N36 today with less than N1b sef. But the bull no show today. Rather the bears danced, pulling the price down a full 10% with smaller money. Make the FBNH bull return joor.

Dong. Market closed. The FBNH bull no come market today. No last minute clearance of offers today See bears sneaking in FBNH Bull come back joor the market needs you.

iHaveMadeiT2:
We will experience series of bull this year that will be triggered by Dangote (DF/Dangote refinery) Transcorp and Otedollar. Follow the money to avoid FOMO

What does FOMO mean ?

KarlTom:

Ony for a while till improved security for example is established.

essentialone:
Why will the peg not be sustainable?

A more sustainable managed floating peg is looking like N1,500 and it needs to be supported with a couple of prohibited items for forex to curtail demand while encouraging local production of things like rice and palm oil production etc for export. As it appears too much money was printed in prior years, not under-pinned by production.

Perhaps a stability like that of the Korean currency like that seen from the spike of Jannuary 1998 of 1,750 stabilizing to about 1,300 over two decades as seen in the picture below can be replicated.

Laso09:
Fixed exchange rate does not work by fiat, it can only work when the government has a robust reserves to play with and can be easily used to defend the home currency.
For now, our reserves is almost nil and so we don't have the dollar to defend the naira.
I don't think we have a choice than floating the naira, thought it is very unfortunate that speculators have hijacked the whole process and make it messy.

I don't envy tinubu and cardoso at this point.
It is a tough one.

Cardoso needs to revert back to the so called unorthodox methods he reversed and even add more join. Ban rice import etc. Even ban jeep importation etc join

owolabi5:
Price Control can't work when you are facing acute scarcity of the product. The major problem is we don't have good inflow of dollars. The demand outstrips the supply in multiple folds. Hence wise speculators are filling their wallets to the brim.

The CBN needs to revert back to the so called unorthodox methods it reversed (even add more join) to trim demand.
Pray the government tackles security to enable a prosperous farming season. All this are needed before the mess start reflecting in the stock market with sustained bears as more companies declare more losses than profits.

owolabi5:
UNION DIAGNOSTICS

They raised ₦1.85 per share from investors in 2007 only to return ₦0.35 per share in 2021 and delist the company from NSE (After investing in choice real estate locations).

A reminder of the danger in stock investing. Apart from mismanagement the company can fail and loose money especially with the head winds in Nigeria.

Mankind2024:
Intelligent investors should take a holding position in Transcorp plc, the Geregu race is just starting.
Even, if you have to borrow money, do not hesitate.
Transcorp is now destined for bound N70 to N100 in 2024.

Amen. That will be excellent development for Transcorp.
The Power sector is a strong growth Area based on where Nigeria is at in power generation and where it needs to be .
May the unleashing of the power sector materialize .

I am also taking a second view at WAPCO. There may be huge potential growth area there. In view of the FG's vision of building more roads with reinforced concrete using rebars produced in Nigeria.

mikeapollo:
You may have a very good point.
But the hash tag (#) on a million social media cannot really make a big difference.
What can either help to stop, amend or ensure equity and fairness in what is going on in Oando can only be through the Court and SEC by way of official petitions by concerned real shareholders.
If the Court really wants to ensure that the right thing is done, it should just instruct Venus Construction and the 13 others to engage Oando management for buyout of their shares and leave the rest minority shareholders out of their quest for delisting. But I am suspecting that the Court is providing leeway to Oando with the numerous adjournments

Of what benefits are the adjournments for OandO if it really wants to buy out Oando minority shareholders at N7.07? The excessive delay is not a plus but a negative in many ways for Wale if he wants to buy out.

Mpeace:
Sorry

For what

Big Sell (+1m units) aggregated offers for OANDO today is at N14.
Current price is N14.
No big buy bid. Perhaps big buyers mopping up in smaller chunks

yMcy56:
GEREGU @721.50! Up with +N45!!

Hope dey for TRANSCORP faithfuls.
Make I no mention figure. Lol.

Transcorp !!!!!!
Bought into Transcorp in the N7.50 PO. It's a delight seeing its Turnaround
Over the years many have expressed hope and many hopelessness, concerning Transcorp.
Transcorp will be 20 years old this November.
Nigeria needs entrepreneurs.

Locotrader:
If FG target is to stabilize naira/usd at 1,200 official price then expect prices of stocks to rally more.
150k to 200k inevitable by yr end

I am having a feeling price may oscillate more between 1,400 and 1,500 as there seem to be excess naira from the years of unproductive over printing.

But 1,200 can happen if oil production goes up and is well receipted by CBN instead of being held back in an opaque manner by NNPC, along with improvement in farming, production activities and increased revenues from Solid Minerals exports.

Looks like the year will stay positive for the stockmarket in all of this.

sky2891:
This kind of aggressive mopping in Oando. Are some people trying to join the league of petitioners? lol
Or is it just the news of PH refinery?

Oando looks more like slow mopping as the price creeps up slowly. The days of below N10 looks gone and I am seeing a support around N12 just by looking at trading without any graphs Those who use TA may see several pictures and stories. Sustained aggressive mop up or price levels change will be triggered by positive annual or quarterly reports and also on confirmation buy out will not happen.

ehay:
What if we are experiencing something similar to what happened in September 2023. As long as the channel holds there's no bear. See charts

I think the channel will hold. And the index will bounce back up at channel support. Looks like we are already near that support.
Notes:
* There is still a lot of Naira floating around looking for a home. In the last TB auction only N1T was absorbed out of N2T that bided.
* The Economy has huge potential for growth. Insecurity is one of the biggest issues that needs to be watched. Any improvement is a signal for continued growth in the Economy and the stock market will race ahead if signals of improvement are seen.
* Oil production climbing up gradually.
* Nigeria's credit rating as noted by CBN Gov improving.
* PE ratios currently do not reflect the probable growth in the economy that is ahead and stocks are still relatively under-priced waiting for further signals on the economy.

I see some money accumulating some stocks selectively - e.g. GTCO is resisting a fall despite some profit taking - Preventing a breakout from the Chanel support.

KarlTom:
I believe that there is more than enough funds to service both the equity markets and the discount instruments market.

After all we have bids that are yet to be matched to offers and we have people with cash waiting for suitable offers

For a few, 18/19% p.a. seems too irresistible to be overlooked...

Out of about N2T that subscribed for the TB's only N1T was successfully absorbed. What happens to the remaining N1T ?
Some will surely head to the stockmarket for the higher bargains the TB's couldn't offer them. And that's why they were rejected. They wanted higher returns. And it's in the NGX they can get it.

SonofElElyonRet:
Okay... Don't think you'll have your 7.07 wish. Price remains stable

Price is a stable gradual up trend. Chart plotters can plot the volatility about the up trend.

Godisfaithful:
Someone that failed in stock market wouldn’t be controlling 3 businesses and partnering others as well.


I don’t know how my opinion make you bitter? Anyway, I will be here to remind you that[b] $1 is on his way to N3,000[/b]. The difference is you don’t know what I know. Peace

This $ thing and high interest rate is raising some bears in the market. I pray for a speedy resolution to the current challenges of insecurity Nigeria is facing. That this N3,000 will not happen this decade if it will ever happen. I pray the N3,000 is averted by the Grace of God. The dislocation will be too much.

emmanuelewumi:
They will borrow against their assets and investments to buy equities when the prices are depressed.

They play all the games in the financial market

If the opportunity comes it's only a very small fraction that will be savvy to do that.

emmanuelewumi:
Na chicken change when about N1 Trillion wan enter Money Market instruments this week

That money will return to the market to buy stocks at higher prices when the economy stabilizes and interest rates obey gravity.

yMcy56:
BUAFOODS @295.90 intra-day.....
Officially @295.90! Up with +10.90!

OANDO: Those guys are at work.......
Btw 12.85 to 14.45, the bids there are so thin, now they had to put fake offers at day's high which is 14.50......Una weldone ooo bargain hunters....
Maybe na Wale's guys too we don't know, dem get some hidden plans ...why not clear the bids on ground?

* Even if Oando will fall in pricr, it's going to be due general market situation and not the court case again. I rest my case*

In the first hour OANDO is amongst the top 6 traded stock by value
Access N109m
GTCO N378m
OANDO N86m
Transcorp N121m
UBA N132m
Zenith N90m
As some are accumulating some are exiting, taking profits etc. With stock brokers smiling to the bank

Frangel:
Audited 2022 and 2023 FS would likely be released together. This year. AGM for both years held same day.

Will be nice if they release them by April. Or latest by May along with dividend declaration.