₦airaland Forum

SonofElElyonRet:
Sentimental analysis probably says otherwise

What are the positive sentiments for it?. I am neutral, tending towards being bearish sentimentally. But can change rapidly with more info and better understanding of the business & its managers.

NettyNelly:
Watch this Documentary


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6kQmoAke2A

Thanks. He's a change agent for the good (prosperity) of China !

Streetinvestor2:
What is the capacity of the car.Is it upto 2.0.Any things lower na toy oh

See the 30 minutes video. Warning: Can cause bearish pessimist feelings for OANDO, SEPLAT & ARADEL.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXvvVDTcNoo?si=aU2xMVocwK8AfEtx

The video made me bearish for the oil companies like SEPLAT, ARADEL & OANDO for any kind of fresh purchases. The only oil companies worth buying now appear to be palm oil companies

KarlTom:
At the bolded, it doesn't have an engine.

The key metrics for EVs are battery capacity, range per charge and [maybe] maximum speed...

NettyNelly:
Do you know about LI LU?
He's the Only Guy that Carlie Munger trusted with his Investment.

LI LU has been an Investor in BYD since early 2000 before they started making Cars. He must have influenced Warren as well.

Just hearing LI LU from you. Who is he?
Just saw a video yesterday of Toyota's $13,000 EV being launched. Excellent Videos. Even in Naija at the price one is tempted to buy. The EV world is going to be very competitive in the coming years at the rate it's going it may crash oil prices and crush oil companies!

RodgersAkpafu:
Warren has just been "doing" over the decades
Like he is an enigma

It will be nice to see why he invested in BYD.

Sold something and bought just a little more UBA. Could not resist the N37 that has a N3 dividend attached. Also knowing the last rights which I didn't take was done at N35. A nice support point I hope,

Interesting. Sellers are keeping UBA price beaten down despite the fantastic Earnings and dividends. Well that's how they sold it down to N3 some years back, resisted it rising above N7 also some years back. This market

Ellahlakes sellers selling steadily. Perhaps mngt and staff paid in shares are booking some money into their pockets. Loaded more yesterday and today. Pray they succeed in the Oil Palm business.

Seeing Chinese BYD news - It beating Tesla in 2024 sales. And watching and reading up on BYD some time back and how they are poised to grow massively in the coming years. It's worth noting Warren bought $230 million worth of BYD in 2008 and that his investment is worth $5.5 billion today. That's more than x20 returns.

egojeny1:
UBA

Final dividend - #3
Qualification date - Friday, April 11th, 2025
Payment date - Friday, April 25th, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43402_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2025.pdf

What a good way to start this week and close the last trading days of Q1

BabsO2:
Chai
Oando fell below N50. Closed at N48.30
Even Transcorp too fall below N50 closing at N47.00

Aah. UBA follow join in shedding weight below the last rights price. Not nice.

Good to see the panic short lived. Oando & Transcorp remain unchanged and UBA has started gaining back.

.

BabsO2:
A high risk of panic in the market tomorrow even if fat dividends get announced tomorrow. As markets hate uncertainty as events unfold in Rivers state watching for any sign of contagion or containment.

Chai
Oando fell below N50. Closed at N48.30
Even Transcorp too fall below N50 closing at N47.00

Aah. UBA follow join in shedding weight below the last rights price. Not nice.

currentprice:
Month of March is here.... update

From TA angle. NSE INDEX still on the bullish side with pullback going on at the moment awaiting banking & others 2024 financial report and the DIVIDEND

The awaiting report/dividend declaration in my opinion is what the market waiting 4.... to take direction. in the past most time, once dividend declared market nosedive. is the same scenario going to play out? time will tell

watch out for this support levels 105,375 first, if that support fail to hold. 101.000 must not be breach otherwise market will become yam pepper scatter scatter

A high risk of panic in the market tomorrow even if fat dividends get announced tomorrow. As markets hate uncertainty as events unfold in Rivers state watching for any sign of contagion or containment.

chimex38:
I guess interim will be sustained or a little more.

They still need to capitalize. The general public will also need incentive as RI.

If interim is sustained that will be good. CBN cannot hold it back forever

chimex38:
Say no more

https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/12/billionaire-tony-elumelus-net-worth-surges-to-2-15bn-as-heirs-holdings-firms-see-record-growth/

What do you guess he will pay as final dividend for UBA.?

chimex38:
U be really Pro-Elumelu
On his Mandate

You say what

GABON ECONOMY: TONY ELUMELU RECEIVED BY PRESIDENT BRICE OLIGUI NGUEMA

BabsO2:
Make better results and dividends start rolling out to brighten the market. UBA why is CBN still holding your results and dividend announcement. UCAP release the date for dividend payment properly.

Now UCAP has done the proper thing
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43329_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-PROPOSED_DIVIDEND__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2025.pdf

He remain CBN to stop the delay in releasing UBA .

Makanjuola89:
Oando will pick today

Make he do quick enter 3 digits. Not gbelo gbebo. Not upandan.

TsarZed:
UCAP Qualification Date is in the annual report, Mar 14, Payment Date is AGM date April 4th

.

Nah there him hide. Thanks. So no need to issue dedicated dividend announcement?.

Make better results and dividends start rolling out to brighten the market. UBA why is CBN still holding your results and dividend announcement. UCAP release the date for dividend payment properly.

chimex38:
The Deed has already started
Page 127

Transcorp needs lots of money to fund its subsidiaries. Whatever it invests in UBA will be returned back in multiples as capital to fund growth. Non Controlling interest over a decade now have been instrumental in providing capital to fund the growth we are currently seeing. NCI is now about a third of total equity. I don’t see Transcorp paying out much dividends as it needs the retained earnings to fund growth. As there is a limit NCI can be used to fund growth.

Agbalowomeri:
Transcorp is not joking with this growth rate. It's a new candidate for N500 in 5 years if this growth rate is sustained

The growth rate has been massive in the last two audited years. PAT for common shareholders grew by 110% in 2023 and another 215% on top of 2023 in 2024. Can growth continue like this over the next five years? If it does N500 doable.

unite4real:
I really cannot wrap my head around this robbery.

Transcorp had N51 Billion PAT. OS was divided by 4 in October and share price multiplied by 4. Yet they went ahead to use a weight average to compute EPS with about 35B shares.
I don't know if this is normal.. why don't they also prorate the value of each share as well and pay back the difference to share holders who held the stock before reconstruction.

From the N51 B PAT, the computation was on 35 billion units when in reality the number of shares that gets paid from this is 10 billion units.
Where are the remaining dividend of the other 25 billion units going to

The distortion is perhaps for their view graphs to justify the 60k dividend and give a false impression of high dividend payout. Perhaps this years interim dividend will be more than one naira.

chimex38:
Well, Shares were cancelled transferred to their reserve and their share capital was equally reduced by 4. Looks technically like a buy-back to me

I believe that should count for sth.
Also, the OS was over 40bn for about 9months.. Seems only appropriate for the full year.

Probably 10.16bn should be used only from Q4,2024 going forward I suppose.

The computed number is a meaningless mathematical exercise. Waste of time for the common shareholder abeg. Maybe they're trying to use the confusion to claim they have a high dividend payout ratio.

KarlTom:
The breakdown is on page 97...

What a meaningless eps computation that gives a lower value than reality. Same shares of 4 turned into one is being weighted. When no money was raised or shares bought back this computation is pure distortion.

ndept:
But, the little green we are seeing now keeps reminding me of Oracle’s trap basket and if care is not taken, the red we are seeing now may be a testing of the mic. Regardless of the dividend by the banks, some financial institution may use the opportunity to offload their kaya, thereby making the market to go down more. In addition, I do not see the banks performing excellently this year because the forex gains that contributed to their excellent financial results last year may not be there this year, coupled with their over-bloated outstanding shares. You and I know that the upward/downward movement in the price of bank stocks dictate the direction of the market. Even the outlook for oil is not looking good in the next months. However, this does not mean that all stocks will go down together. Some stocks will still present opportunity for people to make money despite the reds in the market.

I sold 85% of my holdings last week, the remaining 15% are stocks that has forcefully turn me to an investor like @emmanuelewumi . Like Sky aviation which I bought at N24 but does not have enough volume for me to sell since 2 weeks ago.

For now, I have decided to stay on the sideline and watch how events unfold in the market in the next 2 months. It is good to be a spectator and not a participant at NSEMPA when e-fight starts due to the red in the market.

Above is a personal opinion please.

Nice piece!
I admired your reported exit from Oando at N8x at the time you did. In hindsight at this moment it was a good move!

Indeed, bloated shares and pressure to book some paper profit gains by institutions & market players, will have a tendency to pull the market down regardless of bank dividends paid. Also any drag in oil price downwards and current exchange rates (~1500) may add fire to the pull down for profit taking. The only things that can help in uplifting are good results for banks even without fx gains that shows solid FA, Oil price and Naija fx income staying afloat and not going further down, a reduction of CBN interest rates and stability of FX at ~1500 (not too less as it can ginger some bears). I wish these uplifting things happen. But cannot say for a certainty they will happen. Any way it goes I see banks currently far above their recapitalization price points experiencing more gravity pulls from profit taking. I am holding at the moment (took little profits here and there in January though). But I can see the bears currently lurking around. I pray they don't get the strength to pull the market down.

Amarachibaby:
thank you I appreciate

Add Ellahlakes for future above inflation growth.
Add UBA for getting some income while growing small small. I like it because it should have a strong support at N35
Follow and read this thread when you have time plus get basic investment education.
Following this thread can give you updates on the stocks you choose to buy.

Comparing WAPCO result to DANCEMENT. I am not interested in any buyout of the shares I have. The Chinese company must be forced to carry us along Would be interesting to compare the three cement companies to see what their margins say.

Good question. Pray it doesn't lead to loses.

While older refineries can still operate efficiently with proper upgrades and maintenance, they generally pose greater risks and incur higher costs than newly built refineries designed with cutting-edge safety and efficiency technologies.

Sunrisepebble:
How do we even judge Oando’s ability to operate this refinery well?
I only found out recently that the upstream assets the company has they were not operator, it’s only with the recent NAOC acquisition that they took on operator status. Not to say they can’t do a good job or have the capacity but don’t a lot of risks come with that?

mikeapollo:
Don't you think what may be considered ''low margins'' by those big guys (Mobil, Shell, Chevron, etc) could make a big difference for Oando?

Refinery Net margins are typically in the region of 2 to 10% while Net margins for E&P is typically 10 to 30%. Oando has been having poor gross margins. This refinery will only add to their list of poor margin activities.

Looks like it's even getting into T&T political wahala sef. OandO management may have other benefits from the refinery, but I don't see it having benefits for common shareholders like us.

mikeapollo:
Refineries outside an integrated framework may have low margins.
But this would be refinery to be owned and operated by an integrated oil and gas exploration and production company.
It is like a refinery run by integrated oil and gas majors like Mobil, Shell, Chevron etc. Such refineries would perform better than the ones owned by a non-integrated oil and gas companies, because of potential savings from economies of scale, transfer pricing, benefits of value chain, logistics, certainty of supplies, pricing etc.
Again, Oando would be selling most of its refined products offshore for dollars

.

I have read in the past of oil majors like those you mentioned talking about low margins for their refineries. That is despite all their years of experience in the refinery space. Not to talk of Oando that ain’t got years of experience. Perhaps the oil majors offer fat staff salaries and Oando will save some costs here by offering lower wages. Even at that margins being low is a refinery thing compared to oil exploration and production.

KarlTom:
Another drama unfolding
https://www.cnc3.co.tt/kamla-unc-wont-honour-any-refinery-deal-the-pnm-signs/

How profitable is this refinery sef. Refineries usually have low margins. An old one like this will have very low margins. Or is the TT government giving special concessions like paying ops fees even if it operates at a loss, otherwise it doesn’t look attractive to me.