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BabsO2's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:08pm On Mar 12, 2025
chimex38:
U be really Pro-Elumelu grin
On his Mandate grin
You say what

GABON ECONOMY: TONY ELUMELU RECEIVED BY PRESIDENT BRICE OLIGUI NGUEMA

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:17pm On Mar 12, 2025
BabsO2:
Make better results and dividends start rolling out to brighten the market. UBA why is CBN still holding your results and dividend announcement. UCAP release the date for dividend payment properly.
Now UCAP has done the proper thing grin
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43329_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-PROPOSED_DIVIDEND__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2025.pdf

He remain CBN to stop the delay in releasing UBA shocked.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:51am On Mar 12, 2025
Makanjuola89:
Oando will pick today
Make he do quick enter 3 digits. Not gbelo gbebo. Not upandan.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
TsarZed:
UCAP Qualification Date is in the annual report, Mar 14, Payment Date is AGM date April 4th
.

Nah there him hide. Thanks. So no need to issue dedicated dividend announcement?.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:30am On Mar 12, 2025
Make better results and dividends start rolling out to brighten the market. UBA why is CBN still holding your results and dividend announcement. UCAP release the date for dividend payment properly.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:28am On Mar 09, 2025
chimex38:
The Deed has already started grin
Page 127
Transcorp needs lots of money to fund its subsidiaries. Whatever it invests in UBA will be returned back in multiples as capital to fund growth. Non Controlling interest over a decade now have been instrumental in providing capital to fund the growth we are currently seeing. NCI is now about a third of total equity. I don’t see Transcorp paying out much dividends as it needs the retained earnings to fund growth. As there is a limit NCI can be used to fund growth.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:24am On Mar 08, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Transcorp is not joking with this growth rate. It's a new candidate for N500 in 5 years if this growth rate is sustained
The growth rate has been massive in the last two audited years. PAT for common shareholders grew by 110% in 2023 and another 215% on top of 2023 in 2024. Can growth continue like this over the next five years? If it does N500 doable.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:36am On Mar 08, 2025
unite4real:
I really cannot wrap my head around this robbery.

Transcorp had N51 Billion PAT. OS was divided by 4 in October and share price multiplied by 4. Yet they went ahead to use a weight average to compute EPS with about 35B shares.
I don't know if this is normal.. why don't they also prorate the value of each share as well and pay back the difference to share holders who held the stock before reconstruction.

From the N51 B PAT, the computation was on 35 billion units when in reality the number of shares that gets paid from this is 10 billion units.
Where are the remaining dividend of the other 25 billion units going to
The distortion is perhaps for their view graphs to justify the 60k dividend and give a false impression of high dividend payout. Perhaps this years interim dividend will be more than one naira.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:54am On Mar 08, 2025
chimex38:
Well, Shares were cancelled transferred to their reserve and their share capital was equally reduced by 4. Looks technically like a buy-back to me grin

I believe that should count for sth.
Also, the OS was over 40bn for about 9months.. Seems only appropriate for the full year.
undecided
Probably 10.16bn should be used only from Q4,2024 going forward I suppose.
The computed number is a meaningless mathematical exercise. Waste of time for the common shareholder abeg. Maybe they're trying to use the confusion to claim they have a high dividend payout ratio. sad
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:45am On Mar 08, 2025
KarlTom:
The breakdown is on page 97...
What a meaningless eps computation that gives a lower value than reality. Same shares of 4 turned into one is being weighted. When no money was raised or shares bought back this computation is pure distortion.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:45am On Mar 06, 2025
ndept:
But, the little green we are seeing now keeps reminding me of Oracle’s trap basket and if care is not taken, the red we are seeing now may be a testing of the mic. Regardless of the dividend by the banks, some financial institution may use the opportunity to offload their kaya, thereby making the market to go down more. In addition, I do not see the banks performing excellently this year because the forex gains that contributed to their excellent financial results last year may not be there this year, coupled with their over-bloated outstanding shares. You and I know that the upward/downward movement in the price of bank stocks dictate the direction of the market. Even the outlook for oil is not looking good in the next months. However, this does not mean that all stocks will go down together. Some stocks will still present opportunity for people to make money despite the reds in the market.

I sold 85% of my holdings last week, the remaining 15% are stocks that has forcefully turn me to an investor like @emmanuelewumi grin. Like Sky aviation which I bought at N24 but does not have enough volume for me to sell since 2 weeks ago.

For now, I have decided to stay on the sideline and watch how events unfold in the market in the next 2 months. It is good to be a spectator and not a participant at NSEMPA when e-fight starts due to the red in the market.

Above is a personal opinion please.
Nice piece!
I admired your reported exit from Oando at N8x at the time you did. In hindsight at this moment it was a good move!

Indeed, bloated shares and pressure to book some paper profit gains by institutions & market players, will have a tendency to pull the market down regardless of bank dividends paid. Also any drag in oil price downwards and current exchange rates (~1500) may add fire to the pull down for profit taking. The only things that can help in uplifting are good results for banks even without fx gains that shows solid FA, Oil price and Naija fx income staying afloat and not going further down, a reduction of CBN interest rates and stability of FX at ~1500 (not too less as it can ginger some bears). I wish these uplifting things happen. But cannot say for a certainty they will happen. Any way it goes I see banks currently far above their recapitalization price points experiencing more gravity pulls from profit taking. I am holding at the moment (took little profits here and there in January though). But I can see the bears currently lurking around. I pray they don't get the strength to pull the market down.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:19am On Mar 02, 2025
Amarachibaby:
thank you I appreciate
Add Ellahlakes for future above inflation growth.
Add UBA for getting some income while growing small small. I like it because it should have a strong support at N35
Follow and read this thread when you have time plus get basic investment education.
Following this thread can give you updates on the stocks you choose to buy.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 8:55am On Mar 01, 2025
Comparing WAPCO result to DANCEMENT. I am not interested in any buyout of the shares I have. The Chinese company must be forced to carry us along shocked Would be interesting to compare the three cement companies to see what their margins say.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:20pm On Feb 28, 2025
Good question. Pray it doesn't lead to loses.

While older refineries can still operate efficiently with proper upgrades and maintenance, they generally pose greater risks and incur higher costs than newly built refineries designed with cutting-edge safety and efficiency technologies.

Sunrisepebble:
How do we even judge Oando’s ability to operate this refinery well?
I only found out recently that the upstream assets the company has they were not operator, it’s only with the recent NAOC acquisition that they took on operator status. Not to say they can’t do a good job or have the capacity but don’t a lot of risks come with that?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 5:14pm On Feb 28, 2025
mikeapollo:
Don't you think what may be considered ''low margins'' by those big guys (Mobil, Shell, Chevron, etc) could make a big difference for Oando?
Refinery Net margins are typically in the region of 2 to 10% while Net margins for E&P is typically 10 to 30%. Oando has been having poor gross margins. This refinery will only add to their list of poor margin activities. undecided

Looks like it's even getting into T&T political wahala sef. OandO management may have other benefits from the refinery, but I don't see it having benefits for common shareholders like us.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:08pm On Feb 28, 2025
mikeapollo:
Refineries outside an integrated framework may have low margins.
But this would be refinery to be owned and operated by an integrated oil and gas exploration and production company.
It is like a refinery run by integrated oil and gas majors like Mobil, Shell, Chevron etc. Such refineries would perform better than the ones owned by a non-integrated oil and gas companies, because of potential savings from economies of scale, transfer pricing, benefits of value chain, logistics, certainty of supplies, pricing etc.
Again, Oando would be selling most of its refined products offshore for dollars
.

I have read in the past of oil majors like those you mentioned talking about low margins for their refineries. That is despite all their years of experience in the refinery space. Not to talk of Oando that ain’t got years of experience. Perhaps the oil majors offer fat staff salaries and Oando will save some costs here by offering lower wages. Even at that margins being low is a refinery thing compared to oil exploration and production.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:39pm On Feb 28, 2025
KarlTom:
Another drama unfolding huh
https://www.cnc3.co.tt/kamla-unc-wont-honour-any-refinery-deal-the-pnm-signs/
How profitable is this refinery sef. Refineries usually have low margins. An old one like this will have very low margins. Or is the TT government giving special concessions like paying ops fees even if it operates at a loss, otherwise it doesn’t look attractive to me.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:27pm On Feb 28, 2025
N5b changed hands today in Zenith. Lovely. Perhaps some rights and PO people are trying to take some profits thereby pulling price downwards.

Good UBA did its right at 35. It should have solid support above it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:03pm On Feb 27, 2025
HesInMe:
Interesting. Could you please explain this cyclical pattern in the price of oil palm a bit more for those of us who don't know that market well? Specifically:
When does the harvest season start/end?
Why do prices peak in January?
How much does the price change from low to peak?
Do wholesale prices change as much as retail ones?

Thanks!
AI answer.

Palm oil production is cyclical, but oil palm trees produce fruit year-round with peak and low seasons. Here’s how it works:

1. Year-Round Production
• Oil palm trees (Elaeis guineensis) continuously produce fruit bunches throughout the year.
• Unlike some crops that have a single harvest season, palm oil can be harvested every 10–15 days.

2. Peak vs. Low Seasons
• While fruit is available year-round, there are seasonal peaks and dips in production due to climate factors:
• Peak season: Often during the rainy season, when moisture supports higher fruit yields. In major producing regions like Malaysia and Indonesia, the peak is usually from September to January.
• Low season: During dry months or periods of extreme heat, which can reduce fruiting and oil content (often mid-year in tropical climates).

3. Weather and Yield Impact
• El Niño or La Niña events can affect rainfall patterns, influencing yield cycles.
• Drought conditions can reduce fruit production for months, leading to supply fluctuations and price changes.

4. Economic & Market Cycles
• While palm oil trees bear fruit year-round, global demand cycles, export policies, and stockpiles cause price fluctuations.
• Higher yields during peak seasons can lead to price drops, while lower yields in off-seasons may push prices up.

Bottom Line:

Palm oil is not strictly seasonal, but production varies cyclically, peaking in wetter months and slowing in drier ones. Weather, demand, and market forces also play a role in price and availability.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:31am On Feb 26, 2025
chimex38:
You yaf join dem Ding-Gang grin
Know I ring anytime I am chanced at z time. May market close the month on a rising note over the next three days. Green sweet now.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:00am On Feb 26, 2025
Ding !!!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:21am On Feb 26, 2025
JohnTerrorBlade:
The listing of NNPCL and Dangote Refinery in 2025 is definitely an event worth tracking. Given their current financial performance and strategic importance to the economy, these stocks could attract significant investor interest. However, the big question remains: how transparently will profits be distributed, and could additional taxes or unforeseen factors impact the expected returns? I'll be closely monitoring their movements through live stock charts. What are your thoughts on the growth potential of these companies in the market?
A refinery should be a cash cow and not a growth prospect. It can only grow relative to a depreciating currency as the asset replacement cost is fixed. Thus if further currency depreciation takes place in future, it's share price will stay afloat.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:10am On Feb 26, 2025
starpower:
Zero eight zero three seven zero five five five one one) male sales agent can use truecaller to verify. I don'twork for them.
Good prices are coming down. Thanks to China for their leadership in increasing our collective global prosperity. Prices of goods going up brings poverty while going down of same brings prosperity to the common man.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:30am On Feb 25, 2025
ositadima1:
Instead of una to put chaplet for water they bind spirit of oyibo innovation breakthrough you dey there they argue, ok nah. grin
chimex38:
EV cars without charging outlets..

Even the current CNG needs infrastructure

Fossil till take over, well into the next generation .. grin
Light bulb used to consume 60 watts with tungsten filament. Now for same illumination less than 10 watts is needed with LED lights. Technology for harnessing the sun’s energy could change likewise. We currently get top most efficiency from solar panels in use of about 23%. Research is on to push that efficiency to about 45% with multi junction solar cells. In Nigeria we indeed need to wish for slower progress in breakthroughs in new Tech for assessing Solar Energy. A new tech can even go beyond our current scale of 100% shocked

And if the new Tech comes change overs won’t be that easy like Tungsten-LED changeover.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:29am On Feb 24, 2025
I have taken position in the Ellah bet with the mind set of Jeff grin

Key risk is the management buckling into mis-management when cash starts flowing. So take note of not only the rewards but the risks.

Princkez:
I saw OKITIPUPA OIL trading at #182 on NASD....is this true? hmmmm ELLAHLAKES

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:33pm On Feb 19, 2025
ositadima1:
You have no idea what is going on. The only reason Ukraine has lasted this long is because of U.S. backing. It is the U.S. that has been supplying them with weapons, sanctioning Russia, and spreading anti-Russian propaganda through the media. The U.S. was practically doing everything for Ukraine.

Now that U.S. policy has changed, the war is over. It was the U.S. that pushed them into fighting in the first place. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia—just compare the size and resources of both countries.

As I said, very soon, most of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. will be lifted, and Russia will once

again be allowed to flood the market with oil. Let’s watch as things unfold.
Russia is part of OPEC+. I don’t think it will flood the market but rather stick to working with OPEC. Oil price will likely stay flat or drop a little like 10%.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:20pm On Feb 19, 2025
sterlingD:
I hope what you mean is what is shown below?

Though there is thread on Commercial papers on nairaland the thread has not been updated with that of Access bank yet
https://www.nairaland.com/5010648/commercial-papers/8#134195602
These mouth watering CP’s can weigh the market down. They could beat inflation in their time period. Or likely beat it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:05am On Feb 19, 2025
zendi:
Since we're slowly succumbing to the politicisation of this threadgrin, there is the President, and there is the Presidency.

Among the ways to rate Presidents is by the calibre and achievements of individuals they assembled around them. I rate highly the Presidents that appointed the following geniuses and others like them to avail the nation of their services, namely:

* Tam David-West.

* Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

* Charles Chukwuma Soludo.

There is a lot to be written about each of them, but people easily forget that the impacts made by these widely acclaimed stars were also the successes of the Presidents that appointed them.
I rate Soludo highly amongst these three. His vision has endured with bigger Nigerian banks that have contributed their share in GDP growth not only in Nigeria but in Africa also.

May be biased due to returns in the last decade from some bank shares with x5+ baggers.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:00am On Feb 19, 2025
Ding !!!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:42pm On Feb 18, 2025
grin
megawealth01:
.. Dollars that America keeps minting like kilode
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:41am On Feb 17, 2025
yMcy56:
If you look at the volume and the offers on the table, you'll notice it's only the retailers that are selling....

Some are expecting the stock at circa 60, now it's at circa 63, they'll still shift goal post like Peter used to do, small time, they'll come and be queing @circa 70 and will still not get.....😁

If you get interest and you're still not in the bus, start hopping in now.....
Na so we shouted this stock so teyyyy @8/10/15, na so so insult dey follow.....
At least we don dey try again now......😁
Upon all the loot, none was noticed to come back and say thank you here after all...... (Except 1 or 2 persons via mail). tongue
I think you have the widest stock coverage in this forum. Some of us cover only about 5 to 10. Some just 1 or 2 only. You dey try well well. Well done.

With this distribution exercise and the ongoing selling and buying, Oando will have a larger shareholder base. Which has its good and bad. The good is it will be trading more with stockbrokers getting more income compared to other stocks that don’t trade much.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:13am On Feb 17, 2025
Raider76:
Of course, everyone has their approach to the market. But isn't that like counting your chickens before they hatch?
The share is as good as received even if it gets credited at Christmas. But I don’t think it will take that long.

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