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Bevista's Posts

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Politics › Re: Amaechi's Nomination Dents Buhari's Image As "Mr Clean" by Bevista: 3:13am On Oct 19, 2015
If former governor Amaechi had any modicum of honor left in him, he should have declined the ministerial nomination in the interest of the president, his party and the country. But ofcourse, he is a typical Nigerian politician who is never satisfied. I still insist that the president should have towed the path of honor and passed on Amaechi for ministerial appointment, if not for anything, but so as not to undermine his anti-corruption crusade.

The only worry would be that if he is not appointed a minister, the Lion of Ubima will be seriously ridiculed by his people for being used and dumped, while buhari will be termed a traitor. How will this affect other members of the APC family?

'A ruler who kills those devoted to her is not a ruler who inspires devotion, and you are going to need to inspire devotion – a lot of it – if you're ever going to rule across the narrow sea.' - Tyrion Lannister to Daenerys Targaryen (GoT S5 E10)

I do not envy the president on this one.
Politics › Re: With Cabinet, Nigeria's Buhari Puts Party Before Reforms -REUTERS by Bevista: 12:46pm On Oct 17, 2015
jomoh:
You only mentioned 4 whereas PMB already has prof. Daramola, enelamah, kemi adeosun, dr kachikwu, prof adewole, prof anwuka, dr aminat ibrahim, dr enahaire. That is 8 already of the popular ones. There are still some from the north that are relatively unknown.

Now tell me apart from NOI, how many professors were in GEJ's cabinet.
Well, you should understand the context of that comment. I wasn't comparing PMB and GEJ government.
Politics › Re: Buhari And His Love For Lawyers by Bevista: 11:08am On Oct 17, 2015
They will greatly enrich the cabinet when it comes to prosecuting corruption cases.
Politics › Re: With Cabinet, Nigeria's Buhari Puts Party Before Reforms -REUTERS by Bevista: 10:30am On Oct 17, 2015
BALLOSKI:
technocrats have political influence too.
My definition of technocrats are those who will be driven completely by professional ethics and not political considerations.

I'm not aware how much political influence the likes of NOI, Barth Nnaji, Olusegun Aganga, Akinwumi Adesina, etc had.
Politics › Re: With Cabinet, Nigeria's Buhari Puts Party Before Reforms -REUTERS by Bevista:
seunmsg:
In the context of political appointments, the definition of who technocrats are is very subjective. Fashola, Ngige, Fayemi, Udo Udoma, Onu etc who are classified as politicians today are all technocrats in their own right if they were not already in politics before their nomination.
After reading the profile of the nominees, I must admit that my initial impression was wrong - there are clearly more technocrats in the team than I thought.

However, as fantastic as they are, I would still not completely classify Ngige, Fashola, Onu, Amaechi, etc in the technocrats group. Why? These lot will always have political considerations in the discharge of their duties. They are more of politicians now.

I took time to watch the ministerial screening and also read the profile of most them. The president sure has a great taste and the country will experience transformation like never before. The inclusion of about 12 lawyers in the cabinet is also very instructive - Corruption will surely have a bloody nose in this government.
Politics › Re: SHOCKER!! More Forex Restrictions coming in November !! by Bevista: 7:16pm On Oct 16, 2015
asha80:
not sure I would like that enelamah guy to be finance minister..from his profile he looks he might be better of in trade and investment ministry..oh well
My initial impression is that Udoma Udo Udoma is likely to be in charge of Trade & Investments.

In any case, the Economic Team will include Ministers of Finance, National Planning, Trade & Investments, etc. So Enelamah will be part of the team irrespective of which ministry he handles.
Politics › Re: Jonathan Was A Victim Of Power Game – Abati by Bevista:
He said, “All they could focus on was trying to discredit the president. They called him clueless; they said he was incompetent; they said he was a drunkard!”
You can call PMB "dullard", "illiterate", "terrorist", etc, it doesn't change the fact that the man is loved by many. Jonathan was simply hated by many, it had nothing to do with the names he was called.

Power Game indeed! Nigerians always trying to find motives & theories for every event, instead of looking at the event for what it is. Jonathan was simply incompetent, weak and corrupt - that is why he lost the elections.

Are you telling me that when I went out to vote for PMB, that I cared about any power brokers? Rubbish! I only cared about who I believed would best advance my interest as an ordinary Nigerian. Get that into your skulls and you may have a chance to get back to Aso Rock in 2027. (note that PMB will not contest in 2019 but his performance will ensure that APC wins and stay in power for another 8 years)
Politics › Re: SHOCKER!! More Forex Restrictions coming in November !! by Bevista:
Consequently, for customers requiring transaction spending above the limit, they will be required to obtain a dollar debit card by opening an individual domiciliary account funded by electronic transfer to ensure continued card usage abroad.
After opening the dollar account, from who/where does one get electronic transfer into the account?

This policy is clearly intended to protect Foreign Reserves, control illicit flows, encourage local consumption, etc. However, I must admit that there could be real unintended consequences, if there are no immediate & strategic Fiscal Policies to complement these monetary policies.

The team of Okechukwu Enelamah, Kemi Adeosun, Aminat Mohammed, Udoma Udo Udoma, etc should immediately get to work and help Emefiele out.
Politics › Re: Senate Suspends Screening of Ministerial Nominees by Bevista: 8:49pm On Oct 15, 2015
asha80:
on a side note I just came across an nnpc bid opening for offshore processing agreement going on in nta at the moment ..do you know anything about it?
I have not seen the advert bro.

Do you mean if I know anything about Offshore Processing Agreements (OPAs) generally or are you asking about the particular OPA that was advertised?
Politics › Re: Ministerial Screening: Diezani Vindicated As Kachukwu Upholds Her Policies by Bevista: 7:49pm On Oct 15, 2015
Ridiculous! If anything, the televised screening more than indicted the former minister:

(1) Gov Akpabio acknowledged that for 7 months, NNPC remitted zero amount to the Federation Account
(2) Gov Akpabio mentioned that he could not meet with the minister for 3 years.
(3) Mr Kachikwu noted that the 40m litres/day used by PPPRA to pay subsidy is fraud. Actual figure is around 30m litres/day.
(4) Mr Kachikwu noted that the NNPC he met had annual expenditure that was more than that of 5 states put together.
(5) Mr Kachikwu noted that most of the contracts he met had terms that were unfavourable to the Nigerian people.
(6) Mr Kachikwu noted that he met the refineries at below 8% production level, but has moved them to over 25% in just 3 mths.

In summary, it was demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt during the ministerial screening that the NNPC under the frog-eyed woman was nothing more than a Behemoth of Corruption.
Politics › Re: Senate Suspends Screening of Ministerial Nominees by Bevista:
After watching Ibe Kachikwu yesterday, I'm not sure any nominee can match the bar he set. Fashola was also impressive, but a bit over-hyped.

Ibe, an exceptional choice by the President.
Politics › Re: US Deploys Ground Forces Against Boko Haram by Bevista: 9:44pm On Oct 14, 2015
owobokiri:
You guys actually believe that Americans want to die for you inconsequential Africans? You bunch of starry eyed Nigerians suffering from low self esteem actually see in this news a source of inspiration and joy? After a century of existence, you blundering bunch of inept Nigerians cant raise an army to finish a rag-tag platoon of disoriented desert wranglers and you still see yourself as the giant of Africa in a continent where it took Ethiopia and Kenya few weeks to dislodge a more vicious Al-shabaab? Why is it that you guys cant believe in yourselves, train yourselves, govern yourselves effectively and achieve without approaching oyibo for help like some wretched almajiri at every turn? What is wrong with you lot??
Easy son - that was very harsh. But I must admit, I couldn't disagree with any thing you wrote there.
Politics › Re: Ministerial Screening Update : Senate Screens Ibe Kachiukwu by Bevista:
The depth and breath of his knowledge about the industry is exceptional. He also appears to be very committed to transparency & accountability.

He thinks Nigeria's daily consumption of petrol is 30m litres instead of 40m used by PPPRA for subsidy payment.
Politics › Re: Some Refineries Will Be Shut Down By December - Ibe Kachikwu Tells Senate by Bevista: 4:03pm On Oct 14, 2015
The title of the post should be "Some refineries MAY..." and not WILL.

I watched the ministerial screening of Ibe Kachikwu and I can confirm that the man is a pure GEM. The depth and breath of his knowledge and his commitment to accountability & transparency is a blessing to Nigeria.

I can now go to sleep. Baba has assembled a remarkable team.
Politics › Re: US Considers Visa Ban, Financial Sanctions Against Alison-madueke, Others by Bevista: 12:35pm On Oct 14, 2015
Henry120:
"Why don't you tell that to the over 1500 Nigerians that have been so far killed by boko-haram since the illiterate came into power?".
Easy pal. I personally do not like using the death as political leverage. But maybe you need to be reminded of the over 20,000 deaths during your hero's administration.
Politics › Re: US Considers Visa Ban, Financial Sanctions Against Alison-madueke, Others by Bevista: 12:07pm On Oct 14, 2015
“The real issue is the signaling effect: that holding public office in Nigeria should not be a license to plunder,” said Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Lagos research firm Financial Derivatives Co. “It’s working. The number of bribes I’m being asked for has dropped.”
@ the bolded. Who says Body Language is not an integral part of leadership?
Politics › Re: Why Buhari Must Work With Elders, By Maitama Sule by Bevista: 9:44am On Oct 14, 2015
Every country needs the WISDOM of the Elders and the ENERGY of the Youths to make progress.
Politics › Re: Alamiesegha:uk High Commissioner Denies Extradition Request To Buhari by Bevista:
So, there was no extradition request afterall. Yet the leaders of PDP are desperately trying to get Political Capital out of Alams death.

Just how low can these debased lot go?
Politics › Re: Nigeria Youths Are Not Prepared For Leadership by Bevista: 12:19am On Oct 14, 2015
Onijagidijagan:
who is this fool known as TonyeBarcanista? na only negative thing you dey see about Nigeria all d time. if d youth r not prepared, wot abt you My Ape
Easy pal. You can make your point or even disagree with his views without necessarily being abusive.
Politics › Re: Hameed Ibrahim-Ali And His Entourage Visit Apapa Area Command (Photos) by Bevista:
I would appreciate more if we are told about policies and programmes than just being shown photos like we are kids.
Politics › Re: Okonjo-iweala Backs Buhari On Corruption War by Bevista:
socialmediaman:
This is a sober reflection. She regrets joining the GEJ Government because she found herself encircled in the web of corruption, having to cover up and make excuses for the corrupt practices of your hero and his powerful cabals. This brought disdain for her eventually from Nigerians and that's her regret! That woman could have lifted this nation with her economic prowess had she served in a government as the present where accountability and prudence is the watch word. Look at Kaichukwu now being a potential icon if he does a great job in Nigeria's oil industry.

Lesson: Never involve yourself with unrepentant criminals like PDP cabals, free yourself from their claws while you still have a chance. The only thing they know is how to cheat and to do this successfully, they deploy the best brains like Okonjo Iweala by buying their conscience with money.
Really?? Are you playing the victim card for NOI? She was clearly complicit in the corruption that happened unabated in the previous government, else why did she come out to openly criticize SLS who had the audacity to blow the whistle.

If she had any modicum of dignity left in her (i.e assuming your theory is true), then she should have resigned from the government to show her non approval.
Politics › Re: Okonjo-iweala Backs Buhari On Corruption War by Bevista:
omowolewa:
If anti corruption war is all about Buhari, then we are moving nowhere. The uprightness of Lot couldn't save Sodom.

Let's have. System that will naturally purge corruption out of Nigeria.
Now that we have gotten a right person.....
Systems don't suddenly appear or handed down from heaven. You need disciplined and Patriotic leaders to build strong systems and institutions.

This is exactly what PMB is doing. He appears slow to the Wailers, but when you Build To Last, then you need to be painstaking, detailed and methodical in your approach.

"Impatience is not a virtue. Order is more vital than speed" - PMB (October 1st, 2015)
Politics › Re: Okonjo-iweala Backs Buhari On Corruption War by Bevista:
She also hinted that her decision to join the
Goodluck Jonathan government — after serving in the Obasanjo government – may have been mistaken.

“When the opportunity came to go for it for the second time, I went, perhaps unwisely, but I went because no one will fight this corruption for us, we have to do it ourselves….,” she said.
I sense a woman who regrets being identified with Jonathan. This is a subtle but clear indictment of the inept & corrupt GEJ administration.

While I do appreciate her candor in admitting her failure and speaking glowingly about PMB, I'm curious to know why politicians & public officials suddenly become Patriotic when they lose the patronage & glamour of office - case in point, Edwin Clarke & NOI.

All friends now deserting the Cluless one, even madam gele who was leader of the Musketeers. Failure is an orphan indeed!

As for the obdurate ones still clinging on to the shadow of their "Hero", this is a wakeup call - your role models are deserting you in droves. Even those who swam like Olympic champions in the corruption-ridden government of Jonathan are now towing the path of honour and praising President Buhari’s anti-corruption agenda. Soon you lot will be left clutching at nothing - even GEJ will leave you people soon to join the CHANGE train.
Politics › Re: What If Buhari Removes 3 Or 4 Zeroes From Our "Currency"? by Bevista: 9:41am On Oct 12, 2015
What you are referring to is technically termed REDENOMINATION in Economics.

It is mostly applied in countries with hyper inflation or when citizens begin to lose confidence in their local currency because of its perceived lower value. (Expect Zimbabwe to do this soon)

It is more of a Symbolic Policy with limited economic benefits. It mostly seeks to provide "a sense" of pride and value in the currency. Infact the downside risks are more than the upside benefits of such policy.
Politics › Re: What If Buhari Removes 3 Or 4 Zeroes From Our "Currency"? by Bevista: 9:26am On Oct 12, 2015
handsomeclouds:
Debtors will gain while creditors will lose.
Can you offer more explanation on the quoted.
Politics › Re: NNPC Monthly Report: Detailed Review And Opinion by Bevista(op): 6:25am On Oct 12, 2015
yanabasee:
OP, SOURCE OR ADONBILIV grin
Source is the NNPC full 28 page report. Link to the report is there in the post.
Politics › Re: China Launches Global Yuan Payment System by Bevista: 10:17pm On Oct 11, 2015
I knew it. It was always going to be a matter of time. With this move, China is strengthening its position in International Finance.

Sooner or later, the Chinese Yuan will be accepted globally for settlement of international trade, side-by-side the US dollar.
Politics › Re: NNPC Monthly Report: Detailed Review And Opinion by Bevista(op): 10:09pm On Oct 11, 2015
omowolewa:
Executive summary pls
Find below the link to the one-page Executive Summary which was already posted on FP. This post was meant to provide more analysis based on the full 28 page report.

http://www.newsheadlines.com.ng/latest-news/2015/10/09/nnpc-releases-first-monthly-oil-and-gas-report/
Politics › Re: NNPC Monthly Report: Detailed Review And Opinion by Bevista(op): 9:09pm On Oct 11, 2015
gwales:
Thank u OP for the break down, though I am still not conversant wit some of the issues. Anyway, I find it very understandable and hope you would break it down when next there is another report
If there are any clarifications you seek or specific questions you would like to ask, then feel free to drop it and we'll make effort to provide an appropriate answer.
Politics › Re: NNPC Monthly Report: Detailed Review And Opinion by Bevista(op): 8:48pm On Oct 11, 2015
Keneking:
Great job.

Special note: domestic gas supply should be increased. Let NNPC target 900mmscfd by November 2015.

Can we have the reports delivered monthly say at the end of the month. We can do an analysis month-on-month thereafter. For instance the report of October 2015 should be delivered latest 5th of November 2015.
The new NNPC boss has made a commitment to produce the report on a monthly basis, so we'll have to wait and see if he keeps to his words.
Politics › Re: Kachikwu Sanctions NNPC Staff Over Scandalous Project Exposed By PREMIUM TIMES by Bevista: 8:25pm On Oct 11, 2015
Any objective effort that will promote accountability and financial discipline is welcome. The GMD needs to weed out as many of such people as possible from the NNPC.
Politics › NNPC Monthly Report: Detailed Review And Opinion by Bevista(op):
In line with its commitment to transparency, probity and accountability, the NNPC has recently released its Monthly Financial and Operations Report for August 2015. A summary review of some of the major headings of the full 28 page report is presented below:

2.1 National Crude Oil & Condensate Production
A total of 67.49 million barrels of crude oil and condensate was produced for the month of July 2015 translating to an average daily production of 2.177m bbls.
Observation: There was a 3.7% increase in average daily production of Crude Oil for the month of July compared to the average 2.099mbbls over the previous six months.

2.2 National Gas Production & Utilization
A total amount of 255 billion standard cubic feet (BCF) of natural gas was produced for the month of July 2015. 57% of the gas produced was commercialized while the balance of 43% was either re-injected, used as upstream fuel gas or flared.
Observation: Gas commercialization increased by 21% to 35.4bcf in July from the previous average of 29.1bcf. Gas flaring also reduced from the average flare rate of 9.3% to 7.3%.

2.3.1 Crude Oil & Condensate (FG Lifting)
A total of 63.7mbbls of crude oil and condensate was lifted in the month of July 2015 by all parties. Out of this volume, 25.2mbbls was lifted for and on behalf of the Federal government of Nigeria comprising 17.4mbbls lifted on the account of NNPC and 7.8mbbls lifted on the account of FIRS.
Observation 1: There was a 7.2% increase in FG lifting for the month of July compared to the average of 23.5mbbls over the previous 6 months.
Observation 2: From 2.1 above, the NNPC claims a total production level 67.49mbbls but then claims in this section a total lifting of 63.7mbbls. I have no idea where the balance of 3.79mbbls that was produced but not lifted went to.
Observation 3: I observed that over the previous 6 months, FG lifting was done in 3 accounts (NNPC, DPR and FIRS). But for the month of July, no crude was lifted in DPR account, thus causing the lifting on FIRS account to increase by 75% to 7.8mbbls against the previous monthly average of 4.45mbbls. It is not clear if this is a positive development or not.

3.1 Refineries Operation
Total crude processed by the three refineries for the month of August was 3,322,510 bbls which translates to a combined average capacity utilization of 10.04%. The capacity utilization for the month of August for each of the refineries were: WRPC (26.64%), PHRC (29.68%), KRPC (10.50%).
Observation 1: The NNPC's claim that the combined average capacity utilization of all refineries was 10.04% is questionable. A look at the capacity utilization of each refinery shows a combined average of around 24%. Also, dividing 3.3mbbls by 31 days gives a figure of around 107k barrels per day. This is also around 24% of the combined installed refinery capacity of 445k bbls/day. The previous monthly average capacity utilization was less than 8%.
Observation 2: While most of other sections of the report cover up to July 2015, the report for refinery operations cover up to August 2015.

4.1 Petroleum Products Supply from Domestic Refineries
A total of 116m litres of PMS and 83.8m litres of DPK was produced by the domestic refineries in August 2015 as compared to the previous monthly average of 70m litres and 13m litres respectively. Infact, there was zero DPK production from local refineries between February and June 2015 (5months).

4.2 Downstream Petroleum Product Distribution
A total of 606 million litres of white product was distributed and sold by PPMC in the month of August 2015 comprising of 516m litres of PMS and 83.5m litres of DPK. The previous average monthly distribution of PMS was 587m litres.
Observation: The distribution of 516m litres of PMS for the month of August was 12% lower than the previous monthly average of 587m litres. Yet the product seems to be readily available and at the right price, compared to the previous period.

4.3 Domestic Gas Supply to the Power Sector & Generation
An average of 786mmscfd of gas was delivered to gas fired power plants in the month of July to generate an average power of about 3,489MW compared with the previous average gas supply of 656mmscfd and power generation of 2,843MW.
Observation: There was a 23% increase in power generation from gas fired plants in July, which probably explains the improvement in power supply over that period.

5. Summary of Group Operating Expenditure and Revenue for August 2015
Group operating revenue before subsidy for the month of July and August 2015 were N149.2b and N146.6b respectively against an expenditure of N200.12b and N207.28b for the same periods respectively. This resulted in operating deficits of N51.7b and N60.7b for July and August 2015 respectively.
Observation 1: The main culprit responsible for the NNPC deficit is the PPMC subsidiary. The subsidiary spent an average of N28.6b monthly for subsidy payment and another N8.6b monthly for pipeline repairs/maintenance.
Observation 2: Subsidy payments for the month of July and August was still high just like the previous months, indicating that the government has not yet achieved anything in that regard.

OVERALL IMPRESSION
Over the period of July and August, there was a general improvement on almost all the Key performance Indices which is a positive development. However, the group’s year to date deficit of N378.5b against a budget surplus of N311b is abysmal.

Some terms and abbreviations used in the report were not understood. For instance, it is not clear how the FG treats the crude oil lifting in FIRS and DPR accounts. The report mainly focuses on the crude oil lifted on NNPC account.

It is also not clear why the NNPC allocated to itself 499,767bpd of crude oil for the month of August for domestic products supply, against the standard of 445,000bpd (which is the total installed capacity of domestic refineries).

One would also like to see more information on the Offshore Processing Agreements (OPA). For instance, one would like to know what happens to all the other products from the refining value chain (such as Naphta, Bitumen, Lube Oil, etc). Even for the conventional products like PMS, DPK, AGO, one would like to see the product yield from those contracts to see if the country is getting full value from its crude oil.

All the same, the very idea of providing a monthly report is a welcome development and a sign of transparency & accountability. This will provide relevant stakeholders the information to engage the corporation more constructively.

SOURCE
Find the link to the 28 page full report below:
http://www.nnpcgroup.com/Portals/0/Monthly%20Financial%20and%20Operations%20Data/NNPC%20Monthly%20Financial%20and%20Operations%20Report%20August%202015.pdf.

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Bevista

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