₦airaland Forum

The Speaker, like some of his colleagues, also admitted that he was confused about the policy. “Myself, I must say that honestly I am confused too. Let the CBN governor come and explain what this is about,” he ruled on an order seeking to stop the motion.

It is rather unfortunate that the Honorable members do not understand the Central Bank policy. The Bank has not stopped legitimate foreign transfers like payment for school fees, medical bills, etc. What the bank has simply stopped is the dumping of physical dollars (cash) in the banking system.

If one needs to pay for anything abroad, just go to your bank and you will be issued with Form A or Form M for you to fill. Once you are done, the bank will tell you the prevailing exchange rate, which you will then pay in Naira and the bank will make the transfer for you in dollars.

The problem is that there is so much 'dollarization' of the economy. The CBN policy will force those who have Cash Dollars to proceed to the parallel market to exchange them for Naira thereby leading to a strengthening of the Naira in that market. The policy is also meant to check illicit (out)flows and money laundering.

INTROVERT:
China devalued their currency this week.

By only 1.9%. What's your point?

kwaraguy:
Lemme check the list

Modified: Let an economist explain the implication maybe it's positive or negative

The CBN is trying to make the importation of these items a lot more expensive for the importers, since they now have to source for Forex from the 'underground' market.

The ultimate aim is to encourage local manufacturing of these particular set of items, which will create employment in the process. The CBN has already met with Manufacturers Association of Nigerian (MAN) to explain the rationale of the policy to them and to encourage them to take advantage of the opportunity that will be created by the supply gap. Remember, local production usually suffers when the cost of importation is lower than the cost of local production.

The negative implication is that these items will become expensive in the short term due to high import cost. However, in the long term, when local manufacturers have ramped up production, prices should fall back again - with the extra benefit of job creation. Central Bank monetary policies are usually a balancing act - there is always a tradeoff of some pain for a greater good.

The other benefit is that this will ultimately reduce demand for foreign exchange, leading to a strengthening of the Naira and an improvement in Foreign Reserves.

“l can assure that we have our plans, targeting projects that are very critical which have been mapped out so that within the shortest possible time, will be able to hit 8,000 megawatts transmission capacity by end of 2016,’’ he said..

The title of the post is misleading. The money is needed for TRANSMISSION and not for GENERATION. Any discerning mind would know that you need a lot more than that amount for generation.

In any case, It is good to know they are already planning to expand our Transmission capacity.

The truth is that we take pleasure in persecuting, shaming, killing and destroying one another, we enjoy pulling down our brightest and our best, we willfully and consciously promote and celebrate compromise and mediocrity...

Look who is talking! To what extent did he not go to persecute and destroy PMB, while celebrating his mediocre boss? To my mind, people like FFK are a perfect embodiment of the opinion of those white folks.

If we wish to progress we must change our attitude, we must discard this slavish mindset and thereby put to shame our detractors and enemies. We must be ready to stand up and insist on our rights and we must be ready to pay the supreme price whilst doing so if that is what is required. We must dig deep and find the required strength and courage and we must, as a people, rise up to where we belong and become what God wants us to be: a great, beautiful, free, prosperous, educated, respected and strong people.

To my mind, over 15million Nigerians already took their fate in their hands on March 28, 2015, while people like FFK was busy justifying those damning opinion of the bloody white men.

...stating that indices and parameters of evaluating a rich country such as economic advancement, improved social services were lacking

I think Nigeria is potentially a very rich nation. However, the president is very right considering the indices of wealth he was referring to.

Consider a man who earns as much as N10m a year as salary, but yet he lives in a slum, does not have any investments, his kids don't attend good schools and the standard of living of his family is very poor - all this because he fritters away his income on frivolities. Can you really consider such a person to be rich?

The problem in Nigeria has never been lack of policies or laws, but actually the political will to implement them. The huge difference between PMB and GEJ is in the will to get things done.

It is just plain mischievous when people try to attribute any positive move or achievement of this administration as a Legacy of GEJ. Yet, when there is some negative news, they are quick to attribute it as a Liability/Failure of PMB - they are quick to remind him to get on with the job and leave GEJ alone.

President Buhari is miles ahead of Jonathan in terms of ability and commitment to TRANSFORM this country.

Just an observation!

All the British folks seem to cross their legs, while the Nigerian folks all have their feet on the ground. Maybe that posture is construed as a sign of disregard down here in Naija.

histemple:
I am particularly impressed with the responses so far. No infantile comments or jejune jokes

I think experience is far more advantageous.

I am a HR expert and during interviews, our concentration shifts from your paper qualifications to what you "know and what you can offer". Except if all the candidates are inexperienced, you can not be employed ahead of a highly experienced B.Sc holder just because you have a masters degree.
If you are just brilliant, even a masters degree won't make you intelligent and so when you meet intelligent panelists, your brilliance may not still help you get the job.
Masters in most cases only gives you the advantage of being shortlisted for an interview while your intelligence and Know - how gives you the job.
So, I will advice you strive to acquire experience anyhow you can and also get a professional certification. These two gives you immediate advantage.

Hi, If you don't mind, I'd like to get in touch.

Regards.

Chigold101:
okay...
Now lets look at it very well.

The director said the money was from their 2014 activities. If they are just remiting 2014 money now doesnt that show u that it is not what they do monthly or quarterly but yearly.

Now another thing we must ask is this: was this money supposed to be made pubic?

Did former governments made it public?

Does it mean that governors only forced buhari to give them feeding money?

Humn!

It is a fact that the money was generated during GEJ government. There is no debate there.

However, in the past, such monies have been received and not accounted. GEJ simply continued the illegality that was started by his predecessors.

The money should accrue to the FEDERATION account, that way, it automatically becomes public knowledge. That is simply what GMB has done.

If GMB wanted to continue the illegality, there is very little that the governors would do.

Chigold101:
what is your point?

My point is that the article deflected from the main issue. There is no debate about when the money was accrued, but rather on who took delivery of the money and the disclosure of such receipt.

It is wrong for PDP to claim that GEJ received the money and kept it for GMB, when it is very probable that if he had indeed received the money, then it would have ‘disappeared’ just like the previous payments.

There has been an article recently with the sensational headline “Buhari Lied, Jonathan Generated The Funds Used For Bailout – NLNG MD Insists” where the writer of the article tries to suggest that the Buhari administration claims that the NLNG funds were not generated by Jonathan administration.

There has never been a time when the new government has made such claims that the Jonathan administration did not generate the funds. It is the PDP that claimed that the GEJ/PDP administration left the NLNG funds for use by the new administration. The GMB/APC only refuted that claim, insisting that the funds were only paid in June 2015 after GEJ left office. They even challenged PDP to mention the account which the money was kept if it was Jonathan that left it.

The writer tried to use the personality and office of the NLNG Boss to provide credibility to his article. However, the only quote from the NLNG boss is about clarifying what the money was paid for and the period the money had accrued. It would have been instructive for the writer to also include a quote from the NLNG boss about when the money was actually paid. Dragging the name of the NLNG MD into partisanship just to achieve narrow political gain is not fair on the company boss.

The issue here is not who generated the money, but rather in the disclosure of the money for the benefit of all. The question PDP should answer is: if the money was paid to the GEJ administration, would it have been known to Nigerians and other tiers of government. If yes, why has previous payments not been made into the FEDERATION account where it can be shared across all tiers of government? Clearly, the GMB/APC administration trumps the GEJ/PDP administration in transparency and accountability.

I have insisted that a Federal budget of $20billion from a GDP of $500billion is embarrassing, when South Africa has a Federal budget of over $80billion from a GDP of $350billion. The fact is that most of the money that should be accrued to the federation account never gets there. With our population and GDP, we should be targeting a federal budget of atleast $100billion (N20trillion).

barcanista:
Which document did you read that? How do you think fiscal policies like subsidy are implemented? Did the NASS at any time tell you that the FG broke the laws? Oga make una no de misyarn abeg.

When there is a collusion of fraud, there is generally going to be a conspiracy of silence. It does not mean that there is no infraction of the law. If all the governors and the presidency are on the same page, they can perpetuate illegality without anyone complaining.

Have you not watched many legislative sessions where NASS members complained about spending by ministries and parastatals without appropriation? The CBN and the NNPC are typical examples. How did the presidency spend over N1.6T in 2011 for subsidy payments without appropriation.

Finally, you can make your point politely without referring to my comment as 'misyarning'.

barcanista:
Which law was broken? Oga NO law was broken and it appears like you have comprehension issues. There was nothing like "illegal" withdrawal, I challenge you to state the relevant laws that was broken. Did all that happen in one day? Were the Governors smoking weed when about a billion was withdrawn in November and another in December? Were they in Limbo when it was announced in January? Payment of subsidy claims isn't a secret deal...The Ministry of Finance, Petroleum and CBN have the documents. Buhari should ask the Permament Secretaries and CBN Gov. If your Governors are unsatisfied they should Go To Court

FAAC is a committee of State commissioners of Finance and the Finance Minister. They do not have authority to approve withdrawal from ECA. It is only the National Executive Council (NEC) which comprises of State Governors and the President that has such authority.

Secondly, subsidy payments should be properly appropriated by NASS, and not at the discretion of FAAC or the presidency.

kITATITA:
National Peace Committee is not APC. It is a non-political advisory group which is concerned about coexistence and unity of the country. My personal opinion is that Saraki should be allowed to lead the National Assembly, since he has been elected by his colleagues.

My personal opinion is that the post was cooked up by the OP. I strongly doubt that the Peace Committee with members like Dangote, Abdulsalami, Bishop Onaikan, etc would descend so low to meddle in Partisan politics. Taking sides make you loose your credibility as a peace maker.

baralatie:
you have not answered the question and you are dodging!

There are many loopholes that will be blocked to help the govt generate more revenue to implement it's programs. However, my point is that even without any extra revenue, the govt can still borrow to implement this program. We have been borrowing to pay salaries, support the bogus lifestyle of politicians and even bailout rich banks; so why can't we borrow to support the most vulnerable members of society.

Need I remind you again that the primary responsibility of govt is the SECURITY and WELFARE of its citizens.

baralatie:
okay!let us put you on a clear direction as regards this thread.
now can us suggest answers to the following:
1, the op has estimated at least #300 billion a year,where will Pmb get this money knowing there is a 50% shortfall in revenue.
2.you already have 17 states out of 36 states unable to fund or accurately put pay salaries.
3.according to data,the core north ARE 100% the major beneficiary of this scheme or do you believe otherwise.
4.on what parameter is the #5000 based
I,that receipt have accommodation and only require feeding allowance
ii,that the receipts are in far out villages out of touch
how to you decide!

There is always a budget constraint for every government. The govt will always need to prioritize and accept opportunity cost. The govt has been borrowing for other programs. We borrowed over N1trillion to pay for subsidy scam. The new govt is expecting support of $5billion from the US govt. The previous govt borrowed over $20billion in 5 years. We are borrowing to support the bogus lifestyle of politicians. And yet we find it unacceptable to borrow N300billion to support the most vulnerable members of our society. Are we even aware that the primary responsibility of government is SECURITY and WELFARE of its citizens?

And we are not even talking about the macroeconomic multiplier effect of the program. Are you even aware that the PDP government created this program through NAPEP and have been implementating it for more than 8 years now (small scale, though).

barcanista:
Actual Earning Via Social Security tax $1.2 trn http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/federal_budget_estimate_vs_actual_2014

Benefit paid for SS in 2014 $851 billion http://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go

Nigeria already have huge loans on our head. America isn't that broke considering its assets and it even give grants to countries. Can that be said of Nigeria? So while USA may pose overall Budget deficit ie 15% of overall budget, our own Budget deficit stand at N1.1 trillion ie 25% of our budget. If you compare America's deficit to their GDP you will see that it isn't a cause for concern. Can this be said of Nigeria?

Quite frankly, I do have a strong Economics background so I know that the Nigerian economy is fragile and might not be able to withstand further strain. For instance, we are spending nearly a quarter of our budget on debt servicing alone. However, it's not the poor folks who caused this debt overhang, so why should they be punished for it while the those who caused it continue to enjoy even more.

I'm just miffed that we are always quick to tell the poor to tighten their belts in times of austerity and yet in the season of plenty, only the rich enjoy the windfall. This is just pure insensitivity. When will there ever be a time that politicians and bourgeois will make sacrifices so that those folks leaving in abject poverty will have a sense of belonging, even for 1 year.

barcanista:
Again you are drawing a parallel where there is none. The government did not "increase" debt profile. It took debt and ofcourse with nothing to show. Nigeria already have a debt profile of about $60billion for both FG and states from 1960 till date. Of course it will be increased going by our budget and the interest accrued. This is pure an economic exercise and not an emotional one. Should the federal government take N300billion loan to add to the already existing high debt and the impending N1.1trillion deficit? This will be a disservice to the future generation because the country will be so messed up that we may not recover in another 100years.

As for the USA Budget, their Social Service TAX revenue for 2014 was $1,023.5trillion, while the country spen $851 billion to cover social services. Their Expenditure for 2014 SNAP was $74.1 billion. You see that they have real source of servicing this policy?

You are wrong - you misunderstood NOI. Our total debt burden (foreign & domestic) as at 2010 was about $40billion. In 5 years, GEJ increased that figure to over $60Billion. NOI was simply trying to defend her boss that he was not responsible for the whole $60Billion debt (rightly so).

Budget deficit is Revenue - Expenditure. Currently, the US spends more than it generates. The deficit in 2014 was over $480billion, so they had to approach the bond & treasury to borrow. Ask Google and they'll confirm to you that Social Security is responsible for the bulk of that deficit.

barcanista:
Sometimes when we fail to put into considerations several factors before taking position.

Firstly, Nigeria as a country is NOT RICH! Our FG 2015 budget is pegged at a deficit of N1.1trillion. That means we have to find ways to source for N1.1trilion to service our existing budget by securing loans and bonds-along with their attendant interests. It could even be more than the projected amount depending on oil price and our revenue. So adding a burden of N400 billion (N100billion estimated for logistics and overhead) to the already N1.1trillion deficit into a "feeding bottle" non-productive policy is INSANITY. Are we to also secure loan of an additional N300 bollion(and its interests)?

Secondly, the buying power of the naira is depreciating by the name. This coupled with lack of basic infrastructure like power, road, water etc means that people seek for alternative. Now you "borrow" N300billion to settle some 5million people. These people spend most part of these money to power Generator, buy water from "mai ruwa", they pay increased transport fare to the market etc... How much will be left to enjoy? Aside that what percentage of these money can be used productively? What percentage can buy okrika cloth? You find out that the money have no real impact on the lives of the beneficiaries.

Why Your Examples Are Flawed:
USA Food Stamp: How are revenue sourced to take care of the USA food stamp? Are you aware that working Americans pay Social Service taxes called Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax (FICA) or Self Employed Contributions Act Tax (SECA).?
Still typing...

You see - the problem is that this issue concerns the poor. If it were to concern the rich, it would be a no issue, they would simply just go out there and raise bonds (borrow) immediately. The govt in the last 5years increased our debt burden by over $20billion (N4trillion) - what was it used for? The govt siphoned over N1.5trillion through subsidy payments in 2011 - no qualms. Now, it is time to support poor folks - we suddenly remember budget deficit. If our problem is budget deficit, why do we find it convenient to pay N9billion to less than 500 people for something as mundane as wardrobe allowance. How much do we spend on scandalous security votes and entourage of politicians?

The US has been running budget deficit in the last few years (about $480billion deficit in 2014). So yes they borrow to maintain those programs. Infact, the US has a debt to GDP ratio that is approaching 100% while Nigeria has a debt to GDP ratio of less than 10%, yet they still borrow to maintain those programs. We are talking about improving the quality of lives of citizens, so your PRIORITIES will depend on your VALUES.

greggles:
Ok good analysis, of which I share differences with, my opinion though. I understand that my argument costs like 1.2 trillion annually as compared with 125 billion from your estimate, but I think there are benefits of expanding the budget to achieve a higher objective

Here is my reason:

In the US for instance, jobless claims could average about $1,000 monthly, but on the average, a studio apartment (self contain) costs about $600, which gives you extra $400 to take care of feeding and other bills, that's if you don't share. You also get to qualify for up to 50% reduction or more on other services like electrcity and gas. Internet and cable cost is around $100 or less

Compare this to N5,000 monthly allowance. The average cost of rent in some cities in Nigeria apart from Lagos, PH and Abuja is like 100,000 which way beyond what N5,000 can afford, talk about other bills. I don't see any improvement of life in this case in the next 5 years.

N25,000 would have been an ideal amount but the economy cannot cater for N500 billion naira monthly welfare package at this time.

So here is the scenario I am looking at:

At 150,000 jobs monthly, we are looking at about 2million jobs annually based on employee turnover and shift work implementation, in a period of 4 years, we will have about 12 to 16 million jobs created based on business expansion and higher production stimulation due to much improved standard of living and multiplication effect of economy growth.

Now here is another comparison between your scenario and mine:

Production stimulation:

Because of the low purchasing power of N5,000 production isn't stimulated so much except at the low end of production cycles and fewer jobs are created. For instance, N5,000 income to a poor person would only increase market for an akara fryer or pop corn maker who are at the lowest end of the production scale, it induces more production to the larger scale producers too but the effect isn't far reaching

With 10,000 businesses and 100,000 jobs, there is more production stimulation at the medium to higher end of the production scale, for instance, service companies like banks and other small and medium enterprises like restaurants, laundry businesses etc thrive. Real estate related businesses expand because N30,000 has much more purchasing power than N5,000. Factories. Also expand their production due to the higher purchasing power of people.

Great opinion, but I think you are comparing apples with oranges. The Conditional Cash Transfer Program (CCTP) is not an equivalent of Unemployment Claims, but rather an equivalent of Food Stamps Program, which pays about $125 monthly to over 45million Americans. In 2014, the US govt spent about $74billion on this program alone. There has to be some merits to it. The target of such programs is not necessarily the unemployed, but rather the poorest and most vulnerable in the society.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with your alternatives, but it can run concurrently with the CCTP - It must not be either or. Keynesian economics gave birth to Fiscal expansion by governments, because he believed that "in the long run we are all dead". What's the essence of having great plans for the future when people are dying today. There has to be balance in planning.

greggles:
Ok good analysis, of which I share differences with, my opinion though. I understand that my argument costs like 1.2 trillion annually as compared with 125 billion from your estimate, but I think there are benefits of expanding the budget to achieve a higher objective

Here is my reason:

In the US for instance, jobless claims could average about $1,000 monthly, but on the average, a studio apartment (self contain) costs about $600, which gives you extra $400 to take care of feeding and other bills, that's if you don't share. You also get to qualify for up to 50% reduction or more on other services like electrcity and gas. Internet and cable cost is around $100 or less

Compare this to N5,000 monthly allowance. The average cost of rent in some cities in Nigeria apart from Lagos, PH and Abuja is like 100,000 which way beyond what N5,000 can afford, talk about other bills. I don't see any improvement of life in this case in the next 5 years.

N25,000 would have been an ideal amount but the economy cannot cater for N500 billion naira monthly welfare package at this time.

So here is the scenario I am looking at:

At 150,000 jobs monthly, we are looking at about 2million jobs annually based on employee turnover and shift work implementation, in a period of 4 years, we will have about 12 to 16 million jobs created based on business expansion and higher production stimulation due to much improved standard of living and multiplication effect of economy growth.

Now here is another comparison between your scenario and mine:

Production stimulation:

Because of the low purchasing power of N5,000 production isn't stimulated so much except at the low end of production cycles and fewer jobs are created. For instance, N5,000 income to a poor person would only increase market for an akara fryer or pop corn maker who are at the lowest end of the production scale, it induces more production to the larger scale producers too but the effect isn't far reaching

With 10,000 businesses and 100,000 jobs, there is more production stimulation at the medium to higher end of the production scale, for instance, service companies like banks and other small and medium enterprises like restaurants, laundry businesses etc thrive. Real estate related businesses expand because N30,000 has much more purchasing power than N5,000. Factories. Also expand their production due to the higher purchasing power of people.

Great opinion, but I think you are comparing apples with oranges. This program is not necessarily an equivalent of Unemployment Claims, but rather an equivalent of Food Stamps, which pays about $125 monthly to over 45million Americans. In 2014, the US spent about $74billion on this program alone. There has to be some merits to it.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with your alternatives, but it can run concurrently with the CCTP- It must not be either or. Keynesian economics gave birth to Fiscal expansion by governments, because he believed that "in the long run we are all dead". What's the essence of having great plans for the future when people are dying today. There has to be balance in planning.

Truckpusher:
What you're seeing right now is voodoo economy in the making .

Heavy kalokalo I swear.

APC party and Buhari are bunch of political gamblers ,they've got nothing to offer and sadly we are stuck with this gross incompetence in the making for another four years .

Abracadabra economy.

I was hoping we'll keep the discussion intellectual. You've not said anything to add to the debate.

First of all, let’s get some records straight. According to the APC campaign manifesto, the proposed CCTP is intended to “…give N5, 000 to the poorest and most vulnerable 25 million over a phased period”.

This has been erroneously interpreted to mean unemployment benefits for the unemployed. That is not entirely true, the proposed program is more similar to the Food Stamp Program in the US which is quite different from Unemployment claims. Secondly, the program is not to be implemented in one fell swoop, but to be phased over 5 years at 5million persons per year, costing about N25billion/month (N300billion/year) .

FREE HANDOOUTS / WASTE OF RESOURCES?
For those who think this program is a waste of public resources, I have a few questions to ask. Why is it acceptable for the country to spend about N150billion for 2500 persons (NA members, their aides and other NA staff) and yet some of us consider it outrageous for the same amount of money to be spent on 2.5million ordinary Nigerians? Why is it ok for the country to spend N1billion to feed 1 family and it is not ok to spend that same amount to feed 5,000 families? Why was it ok for the government (though AMCON) to bail out a few rich banks with over N5.7trillion naira and yet it is not ok to spend N1.5trillion to bail out 25million Nigerians? Our priorities and choices reflect our values. We live in one of the most dehumanizing countries in the world, with immeasurable inequality.

Why is it that when it is time to spend some money that will benefit the poor people directly, that is when we realize that we need money for infrastructure and other things, and yet we find it very convenient to allow politicians in cahoots with the CABAL to plunder the treasury (legally and illegally) with reckless abandon. I have heard we will soon be approving N9billion for 469 persons to improve their wardrobe, while millions wallow in poverty – what a joke!

THE US FOOD STAMP TEMPLATE
The US implements the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) known as the Food Stamp Program. This program provides food-purchasing assistance for low and no-income people living in the US. According to Wikipedia, SNAP benefits cost the US govt $74.1billion in fiscal year 2014 and supplied roughly 46.5million Americans with an average of $125.35 for each person per month in food assistance. (This program is completely different from the Unemployment Claims that is also implemented monthly).

Similar programs have been implemented across developed and developing economies with a good measure of success.

ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Still using SNAP as our benchmark, economic research has shown that every $1 that is spent from SNAP results in about $2 - $3 of economic activity. Infact, according to the US Congressional Budget Office, SNAP benefits is rated one of the two most cost effective of all spending and tax options for boosting growth and jobs in a weak economy. Also, the Food Research and Action Centre claims that “putting more resources quickly into the hands of the people most likely to turn around and spend it can both boost the economy and cushion the hardships on vulnerable people who face a constant struggle against hunger”.

Most economists will find the above explanation a lot more intuitive. The way the transmission mechanism for the program works is that – the total spending by the beneficiaries will lead to increased aggregate demand; firms will invest more to increase their productive capacity to meet this increased demand; this usually leads to an uptick in employment.

When huge amounts of money is spent on a few rich folks, what you get is that most of the money is stashed up in cash in home vaults, fixed in bank deposits, spent on buying properties or/and stocks, etc. Very little proportion of the money goes into spending on real commodities that can stimulate the economy.

ALTERNATIVES
People have suggested that it would be wiser to rather invest the money in infrastructure or/and give the money as loans to SMEs. The thinking is that this will lead to improved infrastructure and more job creation.

My view is that, usually, governments don’t implement these social programs in isolation. It is not meant to replace investments and other developmental programs but to complement it and serve as a stop-gap measure to support the vulnerable in difficult times. Why does the US government not choose to invest the SNAP money in infrastructure instead? Infact, why do they even borrow to implement this program? We are talking about $75billion which is 3x our total annual budget being spent on this program alone.

CHALLENGES
There are obvious challenges that may hamper the successful implementation of this program. First of all, there is no proper database to identify the target beneficiaries. There is also the risk of politics, nepotism, corruption, blackmail and sentiments affecting the process of selecting beneficiaries and implementation of the program.

CONCLUSION
The purpose of this writeup is to show that there is empirical economic research and evidence to support the implementation of such programs and that Nigeria can afford N300billion (N25b x 12) per year to support her most vulnerable citizens.

This program is not entirely an APC program. The National Poverty Alleviation Programme (NAPEP) has been using this interventionist program for more than 8 years now, albeit reaching only a few households. The APC simply wants to widen the nozzle of the hose to make it reach more households. (just google NAPEP CCT program - codenamed COPE) http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/06/napep-disburses-n380m-on-cope-scheme/

However, as we do not have the culture of accountability & probity, I will be reluctant to recommend this program at this time. Not because I see anything fundamentally wrong with the economics and mechanics of the program, but rather because I am not confident we have the institutions to implement it successfully. Remember, in the past we have had beautiful programs like Fuel Subsidy, Fertilizer Subsidy, MAMSER, MDGs, Sure-P, Amnesty program, etc. All these programs have failed, not because there is anything inherently wrong with them, but simply because of the Nigerian factor.

CC: lalasticlala, Afam4eva, OAM4J, Ikenna351

greggles:
Let's know your opinion

Your writeup has merits, but let's expand the debate further.

First of all, the govt estimates that 25million people will be captured in the program, but will be phased over 5years at 5million persons per year. This translates to N25billion and not N100billion per year. But let's even work with your figures:

Your model estimates that 100-150k persons will be employed earning about 30-40k per month. This translates to an aggregate salary of N3-6billion monthly, much lower than the projected N25billion (or even N100billion) aggregate income.

Also, what happens to the remaining 19.8million persons the govt intended to reach? Also note that the 100k persons that will get your jobs will not necessarily be the category the govt intended to reach. This is supposed to be a kind of Social Security for the most vulnerable in the society.

Please note that N100billion in the hands of 20million persons is a completely different thing compared to N100billion in the hands of only 200k persons. In the first case, the aggregate demand will stimulate increased production from our companies which will give rise to more employment.

The US used the "Food Stamp" strategy with some measure of success, so it might be worth trying.

richidinho:
10 working days as Nigeria President

2milliion barrel per day x 10days = 20m barrels

20m barrels x $66 (crude oil price)

=$13billion

Can you please help us make the same calculation for 5years @ $100/bbl. Thank you.

richidinho:
10 working days as Nigeria President

2milliion barrel per day x 10days = 20m barrels

20m barrels x $66 (crude oil price)

=$13billion

Nice, but how I wish you can make a calculation of the previous 5 years @ $100 per bbl of oil.

How much did Yar'Adua declare? He declared well over N880m and explained precisely the source of each asset.

Let PMB declare his assets first and tell us how he acquired them, before we start the mudslinging.

And some persons already made billions with the introduction of the Police camouflage.

masagoody:
for those requesting for video, the entire package is above 1gig. hence you may not see someone sending it to you vial mail... I don't think you can attach a file that large to a mail. My advice.. go to a café and in 1 hour, you should have all the videos downloaded to your storage device.

Now that the MOOC is over....please let's not stop here. anyone that stumbles into any sensibly organized MOOC can call our attention to it. it must not necessarily by related to "Oyel"

You should consider taking a look at COURSERA.

Hope it ends well. Not easy reconciling entrenched political interests. May the best man win - I like that Gbajabiamila guy, though.