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Onlytruth:
I also looked closely to what informed your assumptions and found it laughable. You were using the 2003 elections which was massively rigged in favor of Obasanjo.

If you believe that Obasanjo is more popular than Ojukwu in Igboland, then you really need to stop lying to yourself.

Onlytruth, I used 2003 elections to measure Buhari's popularity in the North since he won 11 states.  Although I must admit that I am assuming that the ANPP governors in those states did not rig.  For the Southwest, South South, and Southeast, I used my educated guess.  This exercise is for Buhari's supporters to see how well our candidate must perform if he is to force a runoff.  It is not a projection of the election result if the election is held today.  I guess I just wanted political junkies like me to be able to conduct scenario analysis on their computer since our media outlets do not conduct scientific polling. 

aletheia:
Thanks! Changed your log in name?

I made the spreadsheet and uploaded it a few days: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-614640.0.html.  Im not GenBuhari3 although we support the same goal of electing Buhari 

aletheia:
^^Nice spreadsheet! But your model will be more realistic and accurate:
1) if you adjust the inputs & assumptions to account for state by state variations; e.g the factors driving voters in Kogi state will be vastly different from those of voters in Plateau but they are both in the NC. And at the end of the day, the election will be won or lost on a state by state basis.
2) if you weight the votes for each state by expected voter turnout. Check Table 2 here (http://www.waado.org/nigerdelta/politics/2003elections/President-election/NigerDelta-OjameruayeII.html).

By adding these parameters; your model will be better able to predict the impact of say a high voter turnout in Kano versus an average voter turnout in Lagos on each candidates chances.

I hope I have your permission to make this adjustments.

Please feel free to make adjustments. Attached is the file that I have with the new INEC registration # of 73 million. Cheers!!!

Beaf:
Nuhu Ribadu is not even campaigning and he's on your list? Abeg troway dat tin jare!

Beaf I think you underestimate the party allegiance that the Southwest has for the ACN. If Atiku could win Lagos riding the AC wave, then I think that Southwesterners will vote ACN all the way. Thus giving Ribadu the victory in the Southwest.

This is my projection based on what I saw in my crystal ball  .  Will there be a runoff election?  I don't know. The floor is open for debate. As for me and my household, we will vote Buhari/Bakare 2011.

Here is the electoral map based on what I saw in my crystal ball  .  Hmmm will there be a runoff

shotster50:
The late Yar'dua has more chances of winning this election than Buhari. Things like GOP polls, Statstistics do not work in Nigerian elections. Call me cynical but it is there for all to see.

Actually El Rufai said that the Yaradua campaign hired the services of pollsters. In addition NOI polls partners with Gallup to conduct polls however, I am of the opinion that a lot of their available polling data is for private clients. Hence very few of their findings are made public (my speculation). There is a perception that this election will be better than the 2003 and 2007 elections. The fact that PDP is concerned about a runoff happening speaks volumes. I am not saying that Mr. Jonathan is not the front runner. All I am saying is that the chance of the opposition being able to pull off a runoff is not dead on arrival.

Thanks 9ijaMan, eku_bear, and agabaI23.  9ijaMan the reason why I gave Jonathan the numbers I gave him in Lagos is because there seems to be a perception in the Christian community in the South West that the presidency is Mr. Jonathan's destiny.  They feel like it is divine.  That in itself puts him in a decent position.  I guess I should have separated Lagos, however, for the South West, South South, South East, we can only judge things based on "perception" for now.  Thus, that is why I gave each state the same margin.  Hopefully we can get some scientific polling soon.  NOI has yet to publish any polling about this race.  It will really help if they did.

agabaI23 please post your updated version of the file as an attachment.  As for 2003, I only used 2003 to measure Buhari's support in the North.  Buhari won 11 states in 2003.  I am assuming that ANPP did not have the political muscle to rig in the states where Buhari won, thus, 2003 will be a decent reflection of Buhari's popularity in the North.  In the Southeast, Southwest, and Southsouth.  I tried to make educated guesses.

Attached is a Microsoft Excel model that can be used to project the April 2011 presidential election. I built this model using the numbers that eku_bear provided in his google spreadsheet as a foundation. Based on the results you see here, I project that there is a long-shot possibility that a runoff election could happen. However it is highly unlikely. Due to the lack of publicly available scientific polling we can only go by perception of public opinion based on anecdotal evidence.

The result of this analysis gives Buhari 40.8%, Jonathan 40.6%, and Ribadu + Other candidates 18.6%. The analysis uses 2003 election to measure the level of support that General Buhari has in the North. Hence I assume that he wins every state that he won in 2003. However, I am assuming the level of enthusiasm in the North will be stronger because of the zoning issue hence, he will win the states he won in 2003 by a slightly higher margin than he did in 2003. I assume that Ribadu will cut into the votes Jonathan would otherwise have gotten in the North (especially the North Central) because Jonathan and Ribadu both appeal to moderates in the North. It is important to note that I assume that the ANPP governors in the Northwest and Northeast did not rig the election in 2003.

If Buhari carries the day with the popular vote, he will most likely not meet the INEC requirement of, 25% of the votes in 24 states, to be declared winner based on the first ballot. Hence the possibility of a runoff. In this analysis I assume that he will hit the 25% threshold in 20 states.

I understand that an objective analysis showing the election result if it is conducted today will give Goodluck something in the neighborhood of 47%, Buhari 37%, Ribadu and Others 16%. However, the election is not over and word on the street is that PDP is concerned about the possibility of a runoff. Since they have access to scientific polling and we don't, I am beginning to think that a runoff is possible (although highly unlikely)

Please feel free to make your edits to the spreadsheet and re post for all of us to see. You can edit the results by editing the second tab titled "Inputs and Assumptions". You can edit the cells that are colored in "yellow".

I look forward to hearing your thoughts and insight.

Cheers!!!

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0ApAknCjeDJMjdHBUQ29FRjRqVTBrSXU4ZUliR1ZKVVE&output=xls
N.B: Please see attachment. The attachment is better than the link

Hello Fellow Nigerian Political Junkies,

This is my first post on nairaland although I read posts on nairaland on a regular basis.  In this post I would like to provide the members of this forum with an Microsoft Excel model that can be used to project the April 2011 presidential election.  I built this model using the numbers that eku_bear provided in his google spreadsheet as a foundation.  Based on the results you see here, I project that there is a long-shot possibility that a runoff election could happen.  However it is highly unlikely.  Due to the lack of publicly available scientific polling we can only go by perception of public opinion based on anecdotal evidence.

The result of this analysis gives Buhari 40.8%, Jonathan 40.6%, and Ribadu + Other candidates 18.6%.  The analysis uses  2003 election to measure the level of support that General Buhari has in the North.  Hence I assume that he wins every state that he won in 2003.  However, I am assuming the level of enthusiasm in the North will be stronger because of the zoning issue hence, he will win the states he won in 2003 by a slightly higher margin than he did in 2003.  I assume that Ribadu will cut into the votes Jonathan would otherwise have gotten in the North (especially the North Central) because Jonathan and Ribadu both appeal to moderates in the North.  It is important to note that I assume that the ANPP governors in the Northwest and Northeast did not rig the election in 2003.

If Buhari carries the day with the popular vote, he will most likely not meet the INEC requirement of, 25% of the votes in 24 states, to be declared winner based on the first ballot.  Hence the possibility of a runoff.  In this analysis I assume that he hits the 25% threshold in 20 states.

Please do not reduced this debate to personal attacks.  I understand that an objective analysis showing the election result if it is conducted today will give Goodluck something in the neighborhood of 47%, Buhari 37%, Ribadu and Others 16%.  However, the election is not over and word on the street is that PDP is concerned about the possibility of a runoff.  Since they have access to scientific polling and we don't, I am beginning to think that a runoff is possible (although highly unlikely)

Please feel free to make your edits to the spreadsheet and re post for all of us to see.  You can edit the results by editing the second tab titled "Inputs and Assumptions".  You can edit the cells that are colored in "yellow".

I look forward to hearing your thoughts and insight.

Cheers!!!

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0ApAknCjeDJMjdHBUQ29FRjRqVTBrSXU4ZUliR1ZKVVE&output=xls