₦airaland Forum

0lumide: What we should be canvassing for is this, Having Nigeria return to regionalism, And Kogi, Kwara returned to West, as a Yoruba region, All Hausa land become Hausa region, each distinct tribe have their own region and 1 representative in the federal council each for each tribal region! Have the regions control every thing in their regions, and the reps they have in the federal council will be there. No president, no prime ministers. Federal decisions are made by the consensus of the council reps.

Each region pay their reps in Abuja, no senate! Each regions is it's own administrator. No decision from Abuja is forced down on regions! This is the only solution to Nigeria's unity!

With a system like the Above, other tribes across Africa can join the Union without fear of domination.

I partially agree with your framework. The only only issue I have is that I think that it is too far reaching. I do believe that many states in Nigeria are glorified local governments. I also believe that some of the states need to be consolidated and that every region needs to have an equal number of states. However, I do not believe that the federal government should be completely inconsequential. We need a President/Prime Minister to manage our foreign policy and we need a federal government that is strong enough to create cohesion between the different regions. While I believe we need fewer states, I am not yet convinced we need to completely return to having only 3 regions. Please remember that having only 3 regions made it easier for secession to threaten our national unity.

As for the electoral college system, I have no position on it. I am only presenting information to help nairalanders have a clearer picture of what it will entail if it is enacted. There are several factors in elections. What I presented was very high level. It is possible for Igbos to vote for a Northerner if he has an Igbo VP that is presidential material in 8 years. It is also possible for Yorubas to vote for a Northerner if the alternative is Gbenga Daniels or Alao Akala.

I do acknowledge that an electoral college could increase the incentive for states to rig the census in order to increase their electoral college votes. However, one can argue that the federal revenue allocation and the current construct of the House of Representative already provides that incentive. Critics can also argue that an electoral college has the potential to make our presidential politics skewed to cater to only the interests of swing states. Additionally, since Nigerians are often suspicious of people outside their tribe, some tribes may feel irked by the fact that another tribe has more electoral college votes than them. While this may be true, one can also argue that the House of Representatives is already based on some tribes having more seats that others.

One of the advantages of the electoral college system is that it makes it easier for presidential candidates to allocate campaign resources. For example, in Nigeria a candidate has to run up huge margins in all 36 states plus Abuja. But with the electoral college, a candidate like Jonathan would have focused all his money in the SW and NC (Plus Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, and excluding Niger) since he knows he has the SE and SS in the bag. Buhari on the other hand would have spent his VERY limited resources better and he wouldnt have spent time campaigning in the Core North to drive up his victory margin. Instead he would spent most of his time in the swing states.

Right now it is very expensive to run a formidable campaign for President of Nigeria and only PDP can afford it. An electoral college will shrink a Presidential race to 9 or 10 states and even the paying field for the opposition.

There is a chance that an electoral college may actually make our presidential elections more competitive and act as a catalyst for good governance. Conversely, a cynic can argue that the electoral college will simply make PDP know precisely where they need to rig in order to win a Presidential election.

I am trying to be objective while also playing devil's advocate. My hope is that doing so will help us analyse this issue without being sentimental.

trillville: @danjohn, its like u are being biased. The south west and Lagos in particular can vote for a core northerner vs non Yoruba southerner that is viewed as incompetent. Infact, the same culture of tolerance towards religion that makes most north central states swing states also applies to the south west.

I agree with you. That is why I said that there are several caveats. All things being equal, if southwesterners are to choose between two very well funded campaigns between Rochas and Buhari, Rochas would have the advantage. However, if they are to choose between Rochas and Ribadu, it may be a tight race that goes to the person who has the better campaign organization.

I posted a high level analysis not a precise hard rule.

0lumide: Lmao!! You give Oyo 13 and give Akwa Ibom 11? lmao! That is a very lopsided and bias analysis.

The North will still sweep it in electoral college.

Does Oyo and Akwa Ibom house the same number of Nigerians? lmao!! Lagos is 10$ of Nigerian population!! That is like umm 50 !!!!!!

Again, don't bring north vs south mentality into this!! It won't work on me!!!

I'm all for fairness for everyone. You see I pointed out that Electoral college won't be good for SS or SE.

Let's be fair bro!!

You got it wrong. Oyo would get 17 while Akwa Ibom would get 11. I added the number of senators to the number of reps in the house of reps. That is how the United States allocates electoral college votes.

0lumide: And the reps are based on counties abi? How many counties do you think SS will get? how many do you think SE will get? How many do you think North will get? How many do you think SW will get?

Counties are created based on Population right? In a fair democracy, North will beat SS/SE put together... It will not work!!!!

Also please note that the North is not a monolithic region. There is diversity. There are 19 states in the North (20 if you include Abuja) and Buhari won only 12 of them. 8 voted for Jonathan: Taraba, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Plataeu and Abuja. There are swing states in the North that can vote for a southerner or a northerner depending on the election.

The issue I have with the electoral college is that it can make candidates to abandon states. When a candidate has to win the popular vote, they campaign everywhere because they need all the votes they can find. However, with the electoral college system, most candidates will focus their time and effort on the states I mentioned above plus Kaduna because they can swing either way. Nonetheless, there are always caveats and every election has its own unique dynamics.

0lumide: And the reps are based on counties abi? How many counties do you think SS will get? how many do you think SE will get? How many do you think North will get? How many do you think SW will get?

Counties are created based on Population right? In a fair democracy, North will beat SS/SE put together... It will not work!!!!

Reps in the national assembly is based on population not county.

0lumide: This will still be same thing but will concentrate voting power in places with high population.

Lagos, Oyo, Kaduna... Now, no place in SS/SE can have such voting power which will mean we are back to marginalization. Unless you are willing to give Enugu and Edo state the same voting power given to Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Oyo which I doubt is right.

So electoral college isn't our option just yet!

You want every Nigerian to go to the polls knowing their vote matters right?

If we have electoral college system, the entire SS/SE won't have more than Lagos and Oyo or Kaduna and Kano. That will be too much marginalization.

Americans are trying to return to majority vote and this stone headed rogue want us to return to a system that breeds marginalization in a tribal nation like Nigeria? Abeg make this man no dey go watch America come de prescribe nonsense for us here in 9ja ooo!!

In the United States, the number of electoral college votes received by a state is based on the number of representatives in both the senate and the house of representatives. If Nigeria adopts the electoral college system, we will most likely allocate electoral college votes using this same methodology. I did not pull these numbers out of my behind.

Summary Version

In the United States, electoral college votes are allocated based on the number of senators and representatives a state has in the Federal Congress. If we adopted that same rule below is the number of electoral college votes each state will receive. We will have a total of 469 electoral college votes and 235 will be needed to win a Presidential Election.

Below is a scenario that I put together as a guide. There are obviously caveats since every election cycle has its own unique dynamics.

Former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon (rtd), has called for the adoption of electoral college system in the conduct of the 2015 presidential election in the country.

Gowon, whose administration was the first to balkanise Nigeria into 12 states, also urged the National Assembly to stop the agitation by various interest groups for the creation of new states, saying additional states will not solve the problems facing the country.

Speaking at a two-day conference on "The North and Strategies for Sustainable Development" held in Kaduna yesterday, Gowon, who was represented by the Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Alhaji Aliko Mohammed, said he met with the northern caucus of the Senate last week and asked them to reconsider the introduction of the electoral college in the presidential election.

He also called on northerners to unite and forge a common front in order to ensure the progress and development of the region.

According to him, "Unless we come together in the North, we would continue to have problems. I met with the Senate caucus in the North in Abuja last week and I asked them to reconsider the introduction of electoral college in electing the president."

He added that the creation of more states in the country would not resolved the myriads of problems facing the country but increase the cost of governance.

Also speaking at the occasion, the Governor of Kaduna State, Mr. Patrick Yakowa, said the North had always remained a catalyst for the unity of the country, maintaining that in spite of the current security challenges, the region will continue to remain a rallying point for the unity and development of the nation.

According to him, "History has shown that the unity and strength of the North, with a collective sense of purpose and focus has been the bastion for the unity and strength of Nigeria. We must do everything to sustain this responsibility bestowed on us by providence."

He noted that in this difficult times, the region must work assiduously to adequately address the problems of intolerance among the tribes if the region must succeed collectively.

He noted that Nigeria, as a multicultural and multilingual nation, with more than 250 distinct languages and ethnic groups, cannot continue to behave as a group of irreconcilable religious and ethnic nationalities, contrary to the 'One North, One People' philosophy "bequeathed to us by no other than the late Sardauna, Ahmadu Bello.

"We should stop encouraging religious and ethnic intolerance. We should, on the contrary, work hard to transform the mindset of the average Nigerian and guide it to positive channels. Nigeria must be great again. She must start tapping its diverse human and natural resources to the fullest which God has endowed the country with and which we are not adequately taking full advantage of" the governor added.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201212060589.html

Dude, the older Bush is George H.W. Bush while the younger one is George W. Bush. You can also call them Bush 41 and Bush 43 since the father was the 41st President and the son was the 43rd President.

I almost thought you were talking about the son and not the father.

rafhell: Johanathan is a good man but he is stupid.
Buhari on the other hand is wicked but cunny.

Jonathan is a weak clueless man.
Buhari on the other hand is a good man who is often misunderstood.

[quote author=Godman_n]Yea, let Jonathan crush whoever he wants, but you forget that the Nigerian people have been crushing and will ever remain crushed so long as an incompetent and insincere fool like GEJ remain at the helm of affairs. You foolish Nigerians will never learn. You elected him as a fake messiah. The later said his is a tranformation agenda. Now we are back to square one.

We are back to a criminal election rigger; a criminal looter called Anenih; A know occultist; and you fool are here celebrating as if it takes only the criminals to rule us.

I accept that Atiku and co are evil. I accept that North have produced more of the criminal elements that destroyed our land than the South; but you cannot label the whole Northerners derogatory "Aboki". It shows how archaic, uncultured and uneducated you are.

Ken Nnamani stopped Obasanjo in his third term; yet you prefer a criminal called Anenih over him. Tell me how Nigeria will change if we continue to think like you. And most certainly by Sunday you will trip to church like all the fools and call yourself Christ-like. You are a fool for refusing to see the truth[/quote]Very well said.

topazjosh: even tho i dnt support a c n lyk i do b4.i think what u jus said is out of sense concerning the topic and show how selfish u are,despite u pple abusin t a orji most times will you allow someone from ebonyi or anambra to rule in abia not to talk of a south westerner,tho pat utomi is well known as a good man and the law states anyone can claim citizenship in any state but will you allow that in your state despite having a ibo commissioner in lagos,you still want more,ok make a yoruba mam deputy g in anambra or enugu first ok?

I AM NOT IGBO!!! Gosh! Please stop using my post as a reason to insult Igbo people. Thank you.

PointB: Question really is: Is the Lagos State debt justified? Is there no other way funds can be sourced for the projects without borrowing through the FG? What happen to PPP, and Lagos state weighty IGR? Is not an anomaly, that a state with very huge IGR like lagos state is still the most indebted? Shouldn't someone ask question and do something about it? Or you think because Fashola is involved, therefore it must be genuine and no question should be ask? Should FG just rubber stamp it because, Fashola presented it?

A relatively small portion of Lagos state's budget is funded with deficit spending. Remember the loan is in 3 tranches: $200 million per year. Most of the money Lagos state borrows goes towards funding capital projects to meet the growing population of people who continue to relocate to Lagos from all over the country. If ever the state has financial constraints, it can simple cut back on future capex in order to meet its debt obligations.

Lagos state CAN raise the money in the debt market but it will be expensive. The world bank loan will save the state a lot of money.

Kobojunkie: 10-year permanent?

lol

PointB, first of all, Lagos state has used the Nigerian capital markets several times successfully. The issue is that the cost of borrowing in the Nigerian capital markets is very expensive. When Lagos State borrowed from the capital markets in the past, it cost the state between 10% and 13%. My guess is that the reason why Fashola opted for the world bank loan is because the interest rate is more favorable. On a loan facility of this size, an interest rate difference of just 1% will save the state $6 million in annual interest payments. If the world bank loan is going for anything between 5% and 8%, Fashola could be saving the state between $12 and $48 million a year. If you multiply that over the 3 yr life of the loan, that is between $36 and $144 million.

If you multiply $144 million by an exchange rate of 155 naira, Fashola could be saving the state of Lagos 22 billion naira by opting for the world bank loan instead of using the capital markets.

Sanusi is right on this one. The Nigerian civil service is bloated.

I would like to take a poll of nairalanders on this issue. I personally think that since Lagos State is a melting pot, ACN nominating Pat Utomi as their governor will go a long way towards making ACN a national party as opposed to the regional party that it currently is. In addition, Pat Utomi is a well respected technocrat who will be able to continue the good work that Governor Fashola has started.

Do you think that ACN should make Pat Utomi their candidate for governor of Lagos in 2015. Please answer by saying anyone of the following and provide your reasons:

- Strongly Support
- Support
- I'm Not Sure
- Disapprove
- Strongly Disapprove

NB: I plead with you not to laugh. If at all you laugh at the thought of this, please make sure you think about the merits of this proposition before responding. Thanks

I am not an Igbo man. I am a South Southerner. All I am saying is that Lagos is a melting pot and if ACN picked a non-indigene like Pat Utomi as their candidate, it will rebrand ACN to the rest of the South. It could also make Southeasterners less suspicious of ACN.

Nigeria needs to do away with the whole indigene/non-indigene crap. A person should be able to run for office in a place where they have established residence. Pat Utomi is a resident of Lagos, he is a well respected technocrat, and he will be a good person to continue the good work that Fashola has started.

Pat Utomi emerging as governor of Lagos will help ACN remove the regional perception the party currently has, and it will help the party make inroads into more states in the South and the North Central.

I know that this idea can make a person laugh the first time they read it but if you give it a second thought, it could start making sense .

I think ACN should field Pat Utomi for governor of Lagos. It will help rebrand the party and remove the stigma of it being a Yoruba party.

The picture is very very funny.

joseph1832: Even Rtd General Babangida after leaving Aso Rock lost his wife Maryam Babangida to the claws of death.

Oga you lost me when you got to this sentence.

torkaka: this really got me cracking was she meant to live forever? RUBBISH THREAD!!

I completely agree with you. The bobo lost me when he got to that sentence.

kingoflag: Chei, I don die! You sef wan claim Atiku from me?

Naaaaaijjaaa!

I am not claiming anything. I am just giving examples of names I have heard.

saintneo: Mr President has stayed one year of his first tenure in office, he is at work, 2015 is still very far, kindly allow GEJ to work.

If the result of his work is good then he will express his ambition, else he will go back to Bayelsa.

You sound like a spokesman for GEJ. Are you one of the 40 laptops?

The car is ugly. Just my honest opinion.

fulfillment2020: . Another senseless post from an ethnic clouded bigoted primitive yooroba man. Just naming all the browned-zinc western city just to show your ignorance.

Check Ife-Eco's post again. She was talking about commerce on a day-to-day level. On that level, Aba is King.Another po

I reason with your comment. I have not been to both places but I need not go there before I know what's going on there.

However in this case, having been in both places, your argument seems strong. If I can find two other persons that have been to both places to corroborate this, I'll update my list for it i.e put Aba ahead of Onitsha. As regards Ibadan however, I can't put any of those two above Ibadan.

Your vituperation is completely uncalled for.

Why are nairalanders obsessed with Buhari? This article makes no sense. It is a dog whistle for PDP goons to come and bash Buhari. PLEASE, LEAVE BUHARI ALONE!!!!!!!!

Atiku - Atiku
Goodluck - Badluck

PapaBrowne: They already do all that. Its just that we like talking without researching. The Church in question(Pastor Ayo's) has a Micro-finance bank and it helps lots of entrepreneurs with loans for businesses. I am not a fan of extravagance, and neither do I like the excesses of many churches but common sense would tell you that people wopuld not keep going to these churches in numbers if they are being fleeced without benefit.

When you go through a church you see lots of big cars, chubby looking fellows and well dress folks. You hardly see poverty, I can tell you that for sure.

At what scale do they do their charity? How big is their microfinance bank? What percentage of the church's resources goes to charity (or the microfinance bank) versus flamboyant frivolities like this jet. The fact that their so called microfinance bank is not a household name tells me that it still has a lot of room to grow.

All this is just vanity. The blind followers of Oritsejafor and his cronies are free to give them their tithe money so that they can use it to fuel their private jets and their luxurious fleet of cars. All I know is that no religious charlatan will ever receive a penny of my hard earned money. Shikena!!!!

luluosas: Only the blind that refuses to see when TRUTH are been told.

My friend stop insulting blind people . Trust me, even blind people can see that Oritsejafor is a charlatan.

TGlobe you need to have your head examined. My guess is that you are an illiterate. Your ignorance, though offensive, is very funny. Even if Oyo has more land mass than the entire South East, so what?? Sudan, Algeria, Nigeria, Mali, Niger, and Democratic Republic of Congo all have more land than Japan. But that does not make those countries more viable than Japan. Russia has more land than the US but that does not make Russia the world's global super power.

I cannot believe that I am dignifying the garbage you posted with a response. For goodness sake Lagos is the smallest state in the country yet it is the commercial capital of Nigeria. By your disjointed logic, Niger, Borno, and Taraba should be the most viable states because they have the most land. I do not understand why some nairalanders love to engage in ethnic bashing. If at all you want to engage in ethnic bashing, the least you can do is make sense.