₦airaland Forum

[quote author=okada_man link=topic=630680.msg7986157#msg7986157 date=1301077507]I know. If my father steals Government money to send me to school abroad, or get contract in a corrupt manner or owns contraband Shipping business. I will not like Buhari too.

Buhari will jail all the looters, So he's bad for thief thief business [/quote]AMEN!!!!!

I just emailed AIT, Channels, and Silverbird to get a quote from them. I will keep you posted if/when they get back with me.

Please add this video to your facebook page. We need to make it go viral.

9ijaman, how were you able to make the video showing in nairaland? I only know how to post links.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx08Zc0DPD8

Buhari Bakare Campaign Anthem

I am a South Southerner, a Christian, and a Nigerian youth and I support Buhari.

aisha2:
Sure beats "I go be your scape goat"

Hahahahahaha I concur

Please listen to the Buhari / Bakare Campaign Anthem:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx08Zc0DPD8

I love this. This is very nice. Buhari/Bakare 2011

Hello Fellows,

Below is a link to a video of Buhari/Bakare on youtube.  It is very inspiring. Please spread it around via facebook, online forums etc.  We need to get the word out.

BB 2011


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx08Zc0DPD8

This was a well written statement.

This song inspires me. The time for transformation is now. Please vote for change, please vote for positive transformation, please vote Buhari/Bakare 2011.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc36_RN6624&feature=player_embedded#at=243

PapaBrowne:
This same way majority of Buhari supporters (those in the crowds) are clamouring for Buhari for the simple fact that tribally speaking, he is one of them!! If it were for intergrity, they surely wouldn't celebrate a Southerner with even more integrity than Buhari. Truth is ethnicity and religion are the strongest factors in Nigerian politics and it isn't going to change anytime soon. Even in the USA, race is a still a strong factor in politcis and the economy. That doesn't say I support it though, it is just plain backward!!

My critic was not about the Buhari crowds it was about Delivering's statment.  Yes tribe and religion, unfortunately, remain factors in our politics; however, it is the job of every true patriot to denounce and reject those prejudices whenever they raise their ugly heads.  Shikena

I am looking for the detailed report of this poll showing their finding in every state. I cant find it. Can anyone please provide a link?

Deliving:
The north put us in the mess we are today. Buhari go away

Utterances like this continue to stifle the growth and development of our country.  You came in here and said that Buhari should not be president based on nothing but his tribal/geographic affiliation.  You presented no objective analysis based on his position on issues or his antecedents.  Nothing!!!!!  You should be ashamed of yourself.

@Enugu_Ukwu

Dude I must applaud you for being cleverly deceptive.  Many of these people did not become millionaires while Buhari was in office.  They became millionaires after Buhari left office i.e. under the regimes of Abacha, Babangida etc.  The names you mentioned are of people who remained in government long after Buhari was Head of State.  Still I must applaud you for your clever attempt.

“If you perform well, you get a handshake. If you perform badly, you get a handcuff”. This was the principle Buhari used to manage the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF). I am glad that you have decided to vote for a principled, honest, and disciplined leader. Buhari/Bakare 2011: one vote for two honest men.

BetaThings:
I prefer an old incorruptible to an energetic chameleon lining his pockets and ready to sell his country for pieces of silver

AMEN!!!

This poll is stupid. We need data on who people will vote for not on who people think will win. A person may not support Jonathan out of principle but may think Jonathan will win because he has a well funded campaign. This poll does not capture such a person's true support. "Who do you think will win?" such a stupid question. That does not tell us anything. What will tell us something is "Who are you going to vote for?"

Wow wow wow. Reading this article has made me more convinced that Buhari should be President. "Nigeria does not only need strong institutions, Nigeria needs strong leaders who can put strong institutions in place". The strong leader we need is General Muhammadu Yassim Yinusa Buhari. I am begging you from the bottom of my heart, please tell your friends and family to vote for this man. Nigeria needs him.

I convinced my cousin to vote BB today. I set a goal of 20 people. Right now I have convinced 3 people. Sai Buhari!!!!

Papabrowne,

Thank you for your constructive feedback.  I among your listed feedback, 1 and 4 seem valid but 2 and 3 are captured in the model.

In 2003 Buhari got 45.4% in Kaduna.  I assume he gets 90% of 45.4%  (because he may lose 10% to Shekarau and Ribadu)  which is 40.86%.  If Jonathan and Ribadu split the remaining votes, Buhari can win Kaduna.

In 2003 Buhari got 31% in Plateau state.  Do you think that is a reflection of the Hausa/Fulani population size in Plateau state.  If Buhari gets 90% of that, then he goes home with 28% of the vote.  Don't you think that is a realistic assumption?

GenBuhari:
And why 2003 elections sef?

Why not 2007?

or better still 1993?

2003 measures Buhari's support in the North because Buhari's primary opponent was a Southerner.  In 2003 Buhari did well in the North and won 11 states.  Kano by 75%, Kastina by 76%, Jigawa by 80%, Zamfara 80%.  I doubt PDP rigged those numbers in Buhari's favor.  In 1999 Buhari was not on the ticket so I didnt use it.  In 2007 Buhari's primary opponent was a Northerner from a famous family.  That is different from 2003 where Buhari's opponent was a sitting president from the South.  I DID NOT USE 2003 FOR THE SOUTH BECAUSE THE RESULT FROM THE SOUTH LOOKED VERY SUSPICIOUS.

The biggest curve ball in this race is if some of the people who voted for Obasanjo in the North vote for Buhari in 2011 because of the zoning issue.

GenBuhari:
[size=14pt]danjohn,

You are not fooling me you purposely posted 1 or 2 pro-Buhari post to support your untrue claim  that u are pro- Buhari, but all your actions is demonstrating that you are secretly a PDP supporter.

How can you use the results of a hugely rigged elections as the basis of your model?

Doesn't that mean your model is flawed.

abeg just admit that you a PDP supporter and I would have more respect for u.

Nonsense [/size]

GenBuhari, I am not a PDP supporter.  In fact it would be hard to find a more anti PDP person than me.  The first model I put up was for a post titled "Buhari's Road To Victory" it was a model stating the goals that the Buhari campaign must set in order to ensure that a runoff election happens.  GEJ has made some strategic errors that have hurt his popularity but he is still the man to beat in this race.  The PDP is the ruling party and the party to beat.  I used 2003 for only the North.  It is the only election where Buhari went head to head against a Southerner in the North.  In 2003, the popular saying among PDP politicians was that "you have to be popular to rig".  Below is how Buhari performed in 2003 in the North:

NW
Sokoto 73%
Kano 75%
Zamfara 80%
Katsina 76%
Kebbi 65%
Jigawa 80%
Kaduna 45%

NE
Borno 65%
Taraba 22%
Adamawa 30%
Gombe 53%
Yobe         64%
Bauchi 62%

NC
Nasarawa 34%
Fct          38%
Plateau 31%
Kwara 30%
Kogi          36%
Benue 41%
Niger 40%

GenBuhari I do not think that PDP rigged in the NW and NE.  Maybe in the NC.  I do not think PDP would rig 75% in Kano for Buhari or 80% in Jigawa, or 76% in Kastina, or 80% in Zamfara.  I DID NOT USE THE MODEL TO PROJECT THE SOUTH. The results in the South was a very big joke that is why I excluded it.  The result in the North looked like a reflection of public opinion.  I am not saying that it is a precise reflection of public opinion but it is directional enough.  Below are the results in the South in 2003 for Obasanjo:

Lagos 69%
Ogun 99.9%
Oyo         94%
Ondo 95%
Osun 95%
Ekiti         92%

Abia         52%
Anambra 54%
Imo         65%
Ebonyi 95%
Enugu 80%

Rivers    93%
Delta    94%
Akwa Ibom  83%
Edo             89%
C/River     98%
Bayelsa     96%

For the purpose of this analysis the results from the South were dead on arrival.  99.9% in Ogun state looks blatantly rigged.  My brother, no self respecting Nigerian would wants a president who pals around with Anthony Anenih, Bode George, Alao-Akala, or Alamesigha.  For you to say that I am a PDP supporter pretending is something that I find very offensive.  I am a radical and I love my country.  I find it hard to understand how a person can say they love Nigeria and vote for PDP.  However, I understand that it is not my job to questions another person's patriotism. 

My reason for posting this model is to have a discussion with people on where public opinion stands if the election is held today.   Already I have admitted that I underestimating Buhari's support in the South.  I am on ground hence my view of things is limited.  I clearly stated that folks can adjust the model with their own assumptions and repost it.  It is a discussion.  We both love politics and we both love our country.  Please let us go back to discussing what we think the outcome of the election will be.  We do not need to question each others loyalty.

Wadeoye:
Hi All,

Under estimate Buhari in South West at your on detriment. I just returned from Osun state (my home state) - even with CPC not present and not doing any campaign at the moment, a lot of people have made up their mind to vote for Buhari because they know him very well. PDP/ACN members are the ones helping us to paste Buhari posters across Ede and Oshogbo as we speak and they are asking that we come and play jingles, etc on the state Radio. Most of them will vote for their party at the Senate, etc but for president, they will vote for Buhari.

ACN is the only problem that Buhari may have - them being the ruling party and Osun state being a state where people depend on government for survival. So, majority will vote for whatever lie Tinubu asks Aregbesola to tell the people.

Now Lagos, most of the people that will vote differently in the coming guber and presidential elections will vote for Buhari. Who says Lagos people like Jonathan because of his name? Are you telling me that Lagos people are mumu who will vote just because of somebody's name? You guys must be joking. Whoever tells you in Lagos he is voting for Jonathan because of his name is a PDP member or a PDP supporter? I don't believe Lagos people are that unintelligent to be carried away be name - it is only the PDP members that fall in the category of unintelligent people. And how many are they in Lagos? It is difficult to assess Buhari in the SW until he campaigns here - I am hoping he will do that before the election. Before Buhari started his campaign in the north, majority of our internet worriors were saying Jonathan will win NE, NC and will get 50% in NW. But now that we have seen what the people of the north want, PDP is jittery. Jonathan can't sleep again and he is now going about with N500m to bribe the emirs. Nobody expected what we saw in Jos today - it is a signal that mojority of Nigerian wants change.

Ok you guys may be right. I didnt come here assuming that I know all the answers. Based on what I am hearing from you guys, you seem to be convinced that Buhari has a decent shot at getting double digit in the SW. I am thinking about middle - high teens. Do you think he can hit 20%. I think that the March 29th debate will be a big factor in the SW.

This election is raising my blood pressure (not literarily but almost) because I want Buhari to force a runoff, but it can only happen under very optimistic circumstances.
1. Ribadu would need to win the SW commandingly.
2. Buhari would need to get 16 - 21% in the SW.
3. Ribadu would need to outperform Jonathan in the NW and NE.
4. Shekarau needs to score 15% or less in Kano.
5. Shekarau must not get more than 5% in any state outside of Kano.
5. Ribadu would need to score double digit in the SE and SS to prevent Jonathan from hitting 80% of the vote in those two regions.
6. Ribadu must perform well in Edo state. Ideally he must score above 30%.
7. Turnout in the SW, SE, and NC must be significantly lower than SS, NE, and NW. SW, SE, and NC = 60%. SS, NE, NW = 75 - 80% because of zoning and "home boy" factor.

If all of the above can happen then yes, the election will be in the too close to call bracket until 90% of the votes are counted and a runnoff may be possible.

efisher:
Wow! You did a lot of work here. Well done.

Thank you

Genbuhari3:
Danjohn,

Nice one, but I dont agree with the result. if you had a model a long time that threw a run-off, how come you have a new one with Jonathan's outright win, especially when people on NL and on the street are leaving his camp everyday. where did you factor in anti Jonathan sentiment as a result of missing the debate, being interviewed by Dbanj. As for the Northern vote, Nassarawa, Niger, FCT, part of Plateau cannot go the way of Jonathan. Leave the whole of North west to Buhari, give Adamawa to Ribadu and Jonatha in the whole of the North East, the rest to Buhari.

South West, forget it, Jonathan cannot win it. SS and SE is his sure bet and that is why he is not bothered going there again. he has been chasing North and South West.

But kudos, you have done well

I think that Niger and FCT can go for Buhari while Nassarawa is a tossup. The other model I posted was stating the goals that the Buhari campaign needs to set. It is highly unlikely that Jonathan will not have 25% in 24 states. Hence, Buhari needs to narrowly win the popular vote. For Buhari to achieve this, he needs Ribadu to win the Southwest, perform well in the NC, and outperform Jonathan in the NW and NE. I am not sure Ribadu can do this right now. It is not yet election day so I cant say, things can change. As for Buhari in the SW. I was in Nigeria in December 2010 and from conversations I had with perfect strangers in public places, Jonathan seemed to have the upper hand in Lagos. I do not know if that has changed now. I know that the rascals comment was a big deal on the internet. I do not know if the pepper seller or the bus conductor heard of it.

aletheia:
@Danjohn: interesting how your model agrees closely with mine. I took a slightly different approach as you can see from the attached spreadsheet.

P.S. I used your initial model as a starting basis.

Your model is great. I wish I saw it earlier, I would have incorporated stuff from it into mine. Why did you do away with using 2003 as a base for measuring Buhari's support in the North?

honeric01:
^^^^^

I love the way you people underestimated Buhari chances in the SW, In Lagos alone, he's going to get a VERY massive number of votes because of us on NL are based in Lagos.

Same with Ogun state

Same with Osun and Oyo state, just bookmark this page.

Buhari is going to get more than 30% in Lagos, more than 40% in Ogun state, More than 20% in Osun state and more than 30% in Oyo state, watch and see.


Don't forget that he's running with a Yoruba man widely known both in Lagos and Ogun state.

Buhari seems to be making inroads with educated political junkies. Im not sure he has made inroads with folks who do not follow the news religiously. What do you think? I know that political junkies are opinion shapers, however, there are too many Nigerians who are driven by sentiment. I set a goal of getting 20 people to vote for Buhari, I have only convinced 2

jason123:
SW
The South is based on my educated guess. People in the SW like Jonathan, they will not vote for PDP for gov or senate but they will vote for Jonathan because they like his name Goodluck and they think he is a Messiah. Jonathan will get 55%, Ribadu gets 32%, Buhari 8%, and Shekarau 5%. (Buhari got 7% in Lagos in 2003).

^^^
That was a good prediction except that you underestimated Buhari in the SW especially Lagos. The SW has a soft spot for GEJ (according to my private research) but I think you over estimated him there especially after the "rascal" statement.

Well Jonathan has a good shot at winning Lagos. He will do well with the SS and SE population in Lagos. Im not sure that the SW is sold on Robadu. They prefer ACN to PDP but they do not hate Jonathan. As for the rascals comment, I know if was a big deal on the internet. I do not know if the man on the street who has no access to internet heard about it much.

Also remember that the governorship elections are not on the same day as the presidential elections. Hence, it is not going to be a situation where folks vote ACN from top to bottom. Since people like Jonathan more than they like PDP, that will be a huge factor.

Hello Fellows,

I have listened to feedback from my fellow political junkies on NL and I have updated the election result projection model.  The model uses 2003 election result as a base to measure Buhari's support in the North. It also allows for users to estimate how the % of votes Obasanjo got will be split between the candidate.  In addition there is also room for how the % of votes Buhari got in 2003 will be split between the candidates. 

As for the South, unfortunately the % are based on the users educated guess.  The reason why is that 2003 cannot be a good reflection for 2008 because in the SW and the SS there was no viable opposition against OBJ.  Although there was viable opposition against OBJ in the SE in 2003, there is not viable opposition against GEJ in the SE today.

Although I am a Buhari supporter, I do believe that President Jonathan is still the frontrunner.  Attached is my projection of the result if the election is held today.

NW excluding Kano:
I assume that turnout is 80% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 50/50.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

Kano:
I assume that turnout is 80% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 50/50.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 80/5/15.

NC excluding Benue:
I assume that turnout is 65% because of lower enthusiasm as a result of no zoning problem and no indigen on the ticket.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 60/40.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

Benue:
I assume that turnout is 65% because of lower enthusiasm as a result of no zoning problem and no indigen on the ticket.  Because of ACN's growing popularity in Benue, I my intuition to estimate.  Ribadu will have a strong showing, however, I am not convinced he will win.  Hence result is Jonathan (45%), Ribadu (35%), Buhari (15%), Shekarau (5%).

NE Excluding Adamawa:
I assume that turnout is 75% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 55/45 because they are not as angry about zoning as NW.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

Adamawa:
I assume that turnout is 75% because of zoning.  Jonathan and Ribadu split OBJ votes 50/50 because Ribadu is from Adamawa state.  Buhari, Ribadu, and Shekarau split Buhari's 2003 votes 90/5/5.

SW
The South is based on my educated guess.  People in the SW like Jonathan, they will not vote for PDP for gov or senate but they will vote for Jonathan because they like his name Goodluck and they think he is a Messiah.  Jonathan will get 55%, Ribadu gets 32%, Buhari 8%, and Shekarau 5%. (Buhari got 7% in Lagos in 2003).

SE
People in the SE like Jonathan, his alliance with APGA was a master stroke.  Jonathan will win in a landslide but Ribadu will get double digits. Jonathan will get 71%, Ribadu gets 20%, Buhari 7%, and Shekarau 5%. (Buhari got 11% in Abia in 2003 and 9% in Anambra).

SS excluding EDO
Jonathan wins with a landslide.  But ACN will get double digits because of the inroads they have made in Akwa Ibom and Rivers.  Jonathan (78%), Ribadu (14%), Buhari (6%), Shekarau (2%).  Buhari got 13% in Akwa Ibom in 2003.

Edo
Because it is an ACN state Ribadu has a good showing but does not win.  Jonathan (58%), Ribadu (34%), Buhari (6%), Shekarau (2%).  Buhari got 10% in Edo state in 2003.

Please note that I am a Buhari supporter and I want Buhari to win.  For Buhari to win Ribadu needs to perform very well.  Ribadu needs to win the SW and outperform Jonathan in the NW and NE.  I am not yet confident that Ribadu can do that.

Please let me know what you think.  Please feel free to update the spreadsheet and repost it for all of us to see.

You can update it by typing into the sections that are colored "yellow" in the second tab "Inputs and Assumptions"

Cheers!!!!!!!!!!

African American woman caught cheating.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U1TmyCewZk&feature=related

An Indian man is caught cheating.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbc1IKqosV4

Kobojunkie:
^^^ What is with the stream being all choppy?

idk i thought it was my computer that had issues.