₦airaland Forum

CPC didnt do too bad in the House of Reps based on the official result reported by Thisday.  The opposition is leading in the House of Reps.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/pdp-survives-acn-gains-but-cpc-underperforms/89433/

CPC is doing well in the House of Reps races.  49% of the results have come in and right now, CPC+ACN+ANPP+LP+Accord is > PDP. 

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/pdp-survives-acn-gains-but-cpc-underperforms/89433/

Hello Fellows,

The opposition is currently leading in the House of Reps according to official INEC results reported on Thisday.  ACN+CPC+ANPP+LP+Accord is > PDP 

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/pdp-survives-acn-gains-but-cpc-underperforms/89433/

Folks I have been saying it for weeks that CPC will not do well in the National Assembly election. Many of their candidates had no name recognition, were underfunded, and were relying on riding Buhari's coat tails to victory. Unfortunately that was not enough. CPC will do better this coming saturday because Buhari will be on the ballot. If Buhari was on the ballot today, the result would have been different.

How is CPC performing in the Northwest, the Northeast, and parts of the Northcentral (Niger, Nasarawa, and FCT)? ACN is winning the SW and making inroads in Benue, Kwara, Akwa Ibom, and Anambra. That would not be enough for the opposition unless CPC makes inroads in the NW, NE, and parts of the NC. Does anyone know what is happen in those places. I know CPC is doing well in Kaduna but we need more information.

ajiifixing:
Where is BEAF AND HIS ILKS ?

That is true. Where is Beaf?

efisher:
Ok Thanks. I just modelled a very tight scenario where the final result had the winner at 43% of votes. It will be a very close call but the odds still favor GEJ a lot. From today, it will be tough for CPC to get votes from SW states. CPC will so clear the North as expected.

In 2003 and 2007, PDP's chance of winning the presidential election was 100%. This time, their chance of winning is not 100%. Jonathan is still the frontrunner but victory is not yet guaranteed. The constitution says that a runoff must happen in 7 days. I hope INEC had made plans for such a scenario.

efisher:
Yes, the local factors are very strong unlike in the presidential. Looking back at your model, I see you have even given the whole of SW including Lagos to ACN. Great job.

Question: Talking about majority of votes cast, does the winner need to have over 50% of votes to win in the first ballot. Or just majority even if it is less than 50%?

You need a simple majority and 25% in 24 states. A simple majority can be less than 50%. I think that ACN will do well today. CPC will not do as well today, but will do better next week because Buhari will be on the ballot. PDP will perform better in the north today than they will next week. In the SW they will perform better next week than they will today.

Ribadu needs to remain in the race.  If Ribadu drops out, his supporters in the SW and the NC will either vote for Jonathan or stay at home.  Buhari does not have the time or the resources to capture those voters.  Ribadu needs to stay in the race to keep those votes away from Jonathan.  If Buhari can win the popular vote and force a runoff, his party, CPC, will have a huge boost in name recognition.  With an alliance with ACN and ANPP and the momentum of winning the popular vote, combined with the bandwagon effect can win Buhari the election.

omo alaro:
This is my estimation of voting pattern as of today. I will vote for BB but i will like to see a situation where the opposition will come together before the polls to rescue this country from sure collapse. Together, we must willfully choose a new course for Nigeria. The time is now.

Your file has errors.  The percentages are wrong.  I copied and pasted it into excel and when I calculated your numbers in excel Jonathan got 38.03% and Buhari got 37.17%.  Based on your numbers, Jonathan leads with .864% which makes the race a statistical tie.  Attached is the excel version for your reference.

omo alaro:
Attached is my estimation of voting pattern as of today. I will vote for BB but i will like to see a situation where the opposition will come together before the polls to rescue this country from sure collapse. Together, we must willfully choose a new course for Nigeria. The time is now.

There are errors in you file.  The percentages are wrong.  I copied the exact same numbers in your file into excel and the result is Jonathan 38.03% and Buhari 37.17%.  According to your projection, Jonathan leads by .86% which makes the race a statistical tie.  In the word document you posted you said that Jonathan gets 41.89% and Buhari gets 32.567%.  Although I think it is unfortunate that your information was very misleading.  I understand that we are all human beings and we make mistakes.

recoome:
why didnt he campaign when other were campaigning? Coz he can't compete favourable!

The campaign is not over. There are still 11 days left. He has a right to campaign in any part of the country until the last minute. I still do not get your point.

Beaf:
The man didn't see any purpose in holding a rally in Nigeria's biggest city (or the South in general). So whats the so called "train" he's taking to Lagos after campaigns are over?

Beaf in every part of the world people campaign until the very last minute the law allows them to. No candidate should stop campaigning when there are still 11 days left. I do not get your point.

I am one of those hoping for a runoff but as the days go by my confidence that a runoff with occur diminishes.

Buhari and Ribadu will not get 25% of the votes in 24 states period.

Jonathan is likely to win 25% in the following states:

Very Likely: 19 (Must get 25% in all 19)
Edo
Delta
Baylesa
Rivers
Cross River
Akwa Ibom
Abia
Enugu
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Plateau
Taraba
FCT
Kogi
Kwara
Benue
Lagos
Oyo

Likely: 3 (Must get 25% in all 3)
Ogun
Ondo
Osun

Battle Ground: 5 (Must get 25% in 2 out of 5)
Kaduna
Ekiti
Adamawa
Nasarawa
Niger

If Jonathan wins the popular vote and 25% in two of the battle ground states, then he wins on the first ballot.  Right now, I am pretty confident that he can get 25% in Ekiti and probably Kaduna.

My verdict is that for a runoff to happen, Buhari must win the popular vote.  He must spend the next 11 days in the Southwest: morning, noon, and night.  He must go to the markets, barber shops, churches, mosques, universities, restaurants.  Anywhere there is a registered voter in the SW, he must go.  Buhari must win 15% - 20% in the SW in order to make winning the popular vote probable.  I personally think he may need 25% in the SW to cement a popular vote victory.  This is my 2 cents.  I wish I was a Buhari campaign staffer. Even if it is as an unpaid adviser. I hope Buhari staffers are reading this.

abacus:
Abuja people, yours will wait till thursday morning at THE GRAND FINALE.

Abeg allow us feel them first.

[size=20pt]BB all the way[/size]

GRAND FINALE The election is next week.  We need to campaign until the very last minute.  We have a lot of work to do in the SW this will be a terrible mistake if we stop campaigning.

seal777:
Forgot to mention that i couldnt have watched the interview cos there was power outage since OBASANJO, GEJ and the co-horts had embezzled the 16 billion dollars meant for Power.

AMEN!!!

The change team is coming to Lagos!!!!!!!!!! Vote Buhari Bakare 2011

Jarus:
I listened to the interview. Honestly, it almost got tears out of my eyes. I saw honesty, I saw humility, the man exuded sincerity, it was easy to discern from the interview that this man is out to rescue this country, it was far different from the usual political talk of promising to build bridge even where there is no river. Posterity will judge those who villify this man, that was my conclusion as I almost wept listening to him.

Buhari/Bakare 2011 for a better tomorrow

Buhari/Bakare 2011

I know that unlike states like sSokoto and Kebbi which are solidly for Buhari, Kaduna, Adamawa, Nassarawa, and Niger are not. The reason why I put them in Buhari's corner is because of zoning and because Buhari seems to have momentum in the North among the Hausa/Fulani who are going to come out in record numbers. I am hoping that Ribadu wins SW and that Buhari can at least get 15%. I hope I am not engaging in wishful thinking.

Hello Fellows, I need help from my fellow nairalanders on this topic. Who will win the Southwest in the Presidential election? The hope of the opposition is that Ribadu wins the SW because a vote for Ribadu is a vote that Jonathan did not get. Buhari supporters like me are also hoping that Buhari can have a decent showing (realistically 10% - 12%, optimistically 15% - 20%, hopefully 25%). Right now my instincts tells me that Jonathan is leading in the SW. The perception that I am getting from people I talk to is that folks are gonna vote ACN for gubernatorial and Jonathan President.

I am of the opinion that the SW will choose our next president. If Jonathan wins the SW commandingly he wins the whole things. If Ribadu can limit Jonathan to 35% - 40% and Buhari gets 11% - 15%, Buhari could win the popular vote and force a runoff depending on turnout distribution. Buhari needs to give Nigerians the biggest upset in Nigerian political history. Such an event will give him the momentum and the political comeback that he needs to cement his victory in a runoff.

Can you please give your objective projection of each state in the SW based on anecdotal evidence you have from people who live there. Please be objective.

Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Ondo
Ekiti

For now here is my map of the election. Please let me know what you think.

@Adamuhassa

Next time can you at least tell us that this is an old story and that you are trying to show that El Rufai flip flopped. El Rufai has since endorsed Buhari, by not putting the date of the statement, you made it look sketchy.

Your link is not working. Is it my computer or is this story a scam

Please post a link to this story

[quote author=ekt_bear link=topic=637231.msg8051448#msg8051448 date=1301940140]@danjohn: Did you just get a black and white map then autofill each grid a certain color? What software did you use to make that map?[/quote]I got the map from searching on google. Then I opened it in "Paint" to edit the colors. If you use microsoft windows, then you can get to "Paint" from (Start, All Programs, Accessories, Paint). Place you mouse over the icons on the left hand side of the page. Select the icon called "Fill With Color". It looks like a paint bucket. Use it to color the different states as you please. You can also make it easier to color by increasing he size of the picture. Go to the top of the window: View, Zoom, Custom, 200%. Please let me know if that works for you. Cheers

stormm:
danjohn,

Benue will not go to PDP. Akume holds the aces and he is currently in ACN while Suswam has been like a drunken sailor fisherman. Recently, many ACN chieftains in Benue State, were invited by the police for discussions on the political situation. Audu Ogbeh, Akume(the immediate past governor), Saror and many big wigs are currently in ACN.

Also, many commentators don't unerstand the politics of Benue State. It is about the man on ground, the one they know and that man is Akume, a man whose political philosophy is like that of Tinubu.

I am referring to the presidential elections not the gubernatorial elections.  We in the opposition need to come to terms with the biggest challenge in the presidential election.  In the South and the NC, Jonathan transcends PDP.  There are many people who hate PDP but like Jonathan, that is why the SW is still a tossup and that is why Benue will go for Jonathan.

EzeUche:
That is a very good map danjohn. 

Thanks!

The election will be decided in the Southwest.  Once again as I have always said, Buhari needs Ribadu to do well in the Southwest.  Any vote that Ribadu gets is a vote that Jonathan didn't get.  Buhari needs to concentrate his resources in the SW.  Lucky for him, he has more time. Now that his base in the NW and NE are fired up, it is now time to go after swing voters.

Here are my presidential projections:


PDP
Akwa Ibom
Rivers
Cross River
Edo
Delta
Bayelsa
Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Kwara
Kogi
Benue
FCT
Plataeu
Taraba

CPC
Kebbi
Sokoto
Zamfara
Jigawa
Kano
Kaduna
Kastina
Gombe
Borno
Bauchi
Yobe
Adamawa
Nasarawa
Niger

Swing States
Lagos (Ribadu/Jonathan)
Oyo (Ribadu/Jonathan)
Ogun (Ribadu/Jonathan)
Osun (Ribadu/Jonathan)
Ondo (Ribadu/Jonathan)
Ekiti (Ribadu/Jonathan)

@debrief08. Abeg I agree with you. Now that the election has been postponed I think that we have more time to spread the word. BB 2011!!!

iluvnaija:
COMMENTS LIKE ALL THESE HAS PUT US ALL WHERE WE ARE TODAY. COMPETENT PEOPLE LIKE OKOTIE, UTOMI AND DELE MOMODU ARE NOT VOTED FOR BUT INCOMPETENT DULLARD LIKE JOE AND CO GET VOTES.

I CRY FOR NIGERIA.

My brother, Chris Okotie is not a good politician.  A good politician understands that developing your platform is very crucial.  Making you party have a presence in all 36 states, in all 774 local governments, and in all 8,812 wards is very important.  Some politicians like Awolowo made their platform secure a formidable presence in one political region and then tried to make inroads else where.  Aminu Kano made inroads in the NW.  Labor Party has done the same in Ondo state.  Chris Okotie has not done that anywhere.  He has not even focused on leadership development (the famous term for it is having political god sons).  He has not groomed anyone to make a formidable run for governor or senate or local government chairman.  He has not made any high profile recruits into his party.  Being articulate is not enough, you need to do these things to be formidable.

He has not even tried to build alliances.  I guess that is not possible for him.  For you to build alliances you need to be bringing something to the table and he brings nothing to the table.  Sweet words and ideas are not enough.  It is your platform that delivers those sweet words to the people.  How does the Mallam in Sokoto get to know your ideas?  How does the bus conductor get to know you?  It is through your platform.   You need a platform that is present in all 774 local governments and in all 8,812 wards.  A platform that has relationships with trade unions, market womens associations, okada riders associations, association of suya sellers whatever it is.  Your party needs to have that penetration.  Your phone book needs to have the names of business men who can help you with fund raising and bus conductors, trade union leaders, market women etc. who can monitor the polling station to make sure that electoral malpractice does not occur in any of the 120,000 polling stations.  Right now, I do not think that Okotie can get 120,000 nigerians to vote for him.  If Okotie cannot get 120,000 Nigerians to vote for him, where on earth do you expect him to find 120,000 people to monitor polling stations for his party?  Do you get my point?  You need more than ideas to win elections.  You need to have a party structure than can penetration into the rural areas and communicate with the 50%+ of Nigerians who cannot read and write; and the significant percent of our citizens who do not even speak English.

I have more respect for Bola Tinubu and Buhari despite all their shortcomings.  Buhari built a party that made inroads in the NW, NE, and partially in the NC and he tried (although unsuccessfully) to build an alliance with a party that has made inroads in the SW.  That is a pragmatic man who understands that politics is a game of numbers.  That is how you make yourself formidable.  If Obama was a member of the Green Party he would have lost.  Okotie needs to do his homework and build his platform.  Even if his party becomes a regional party, he can build alliances and make a formidable run for national office.  That my brothers and sisters is my two cents.  Shikena.

My advice for Reverend Chris Okotie is this:

I Am Reverend Chris Okotie


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDEmGGJiQ9E

I am not surprised. I really do not expect much from him. It would take more than that statement to shock me. Sorry brother, you need to have a high opinion of Jonathan to be disappointed. I actually expect statements like that from him.