₦airaland Forum

dayokanu: No way they would lose the popular votes

APC gets NW,NE and SW by good margins theres no way Jonathan can upturn that from SS and SE alone

From your numbers you are discounting that Jonathans number in the SW would reduce while the APC number would increase significantly.

Give APC the standard 60-70% votes from the SW and lets see what the model would look like now

Also consider borderline states like Kwara, Kogi, Taraba, Nasarawa and imagine what would happen if ACN side of it joins to rally voters there.

the only sure states are SS and SE

In the 2011 numbers if SW supported Buhari en masse and delivered votes for him. Remove that number from Jonathan and add it to Buhari and see what would happen

dayokanu: Theres no campaign Buhari can do in Delta, Bayelsa and rivers that would change anything just like Jonathan cant muster any campaign in Katsina, Kano etc without the presidential paparazzi and protection

dayokanu: To win an election you dont need to win in all 36 states

The SS and SE are Jonathans territory e.g in the US Democrats know they can never win some states even if they present An angel and republicans present a goat So they dont bother, they just concentrate their campaigns in the battleground states.

E.g Democrats would never win in Alabama, Missisipi, Texas, etc

dayokanu: The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

peckhamboi: Good analysis but I still believe Buhari is the best option for the opposition, he is the only person who can deliver 12 million votes without spending a dime, he is incomparable to people like Ribadu who couldnt even deliver his own state in the last presidential election. I am 100% sure the SW will definitely not vote for GEJ so the real battle lies in NC, if the opposition can add states like Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Edo in addition the the SW, then they have a great chance to defeat the PDP. People like Okorocha, Ngige, Oshiomole could also help the opposition getting a sizeable number of votes in the SS/SE.

Wadeoye: Where did GEJ got 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

Jarus: I am a big fan of Buhari, for his anti-corruption and discipline credential.

However, old age may not be a good advantage for him.

Next that comes to my mind is Fashola, for his performance record.

Option 1

Buhari/Fashola: While Buhari faces the corruption/indiscipline cankerworm, sanitizing public sector, Fashola can face the administration and day-to-day developmental projects. He also brings intellectualism to the table.

Selling point: Sanitization/performance togetheer
Snag: Where is the place of South-East, which due to political fairness, is due for either of those positions?


Option 2
Fashola/Ribadu: If age puts Buhari off the options, then we can make do with Ribadu, a mini-Buhari, to take care of the corruption/indiscipline aspect, while Fashola does the work.

Merit: Performance/sanitization together
Snag: Where is the place of Igbos again?

Option 3
Fashola/Rochas: If we must find a space for our SE brothers for political fairness then Rochas is who comes to my mind.

Highpoint: Pacifies those that don't want Hausa/Fulani again; pacifies Igbos; guaranteed performance from Fashola
Snag: Fighting corruption is postponed to another day, but Fashola is trusted to bring some level of discipline.

GAR3TH: Can someone explain how GEJ can run in 2015? I thought the constitution said you can only have two terms as president? Didn't Johnathan serve his first term when he took over from yar'adua and he's second when he won the elections? I thought Nigeria's constitution was similar to the USA? LBJ only served 6 years as president after JFK was assassinated and did not contest the following elections. Because he would have past the 8 year limit and would have served 3 terms in office.

Eko Ile: ^^^^ That was 2011 and a lot of rigging.

Demdem: it still doesnt change anything. even with the full support of Igbos, the retardeen will still be booted out.

Sincere 9gerian: Definitely, its not only people from Niger state the use train services along that route. In any case, when push comes to shove, even 25% of votes from your enemies camp can make all the difference.

The pertinent issue here is that this govt is delivering services to the people of Nig like never before

Sincere 9gerian: Those 3,000 to 5,000 persons being moved per trip on that route via the resuscitated railway, will speak with their vote come 2015, if GEJ decides to re-contest.

Those are the people that matter. They are REAL people on ground, whose DIRECT needs are being met by a govt that care.

Anonymous internet rats and cockroaches can continue with their BAD-BELLEISM, hate, insults and destructive criticisms.

Demdem: The control of the NASS is desirable however considering the Nigerian context its not a must that he/she will need them to perform well. even now that the retardeen's men are in charge, how far has he faired?

Demdem you do not get my point. If PDP retains control of the national assembly they WILL frustrate Buhari or Fashola. The point I am making is that the ACN/CPC/ANPP merger should not only focus on the presidential election. They need to recruit credible people to run in the governorship, senate, and house of reps elections. If not we would be stuck with a lameduck president who could be impeached for making a forgivable gaffe.

Ideally, the merger needs to include APGA so that the new mega party can have the perceived representation of the 3 largest tribes in Nigeria.

Yes they can if they put both their heads and heart together. the same peeps that will vote in the presidential will also vote in the NASS.

I agree but we must remember that in 2011 ACN had the chance of winning more states but Tinubu decided to choose candidates that did not represent the will of the people. In 2015 we need to have a data driven campaign. The new party needs to have inbuilt institutions that would help them recruit and elect credible candidates with high name recognition and high favorability ratings. For example in the United States the Democratic Party has the Democratic Governors Association, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Democratic National Committee. These institutions help the party raise money, recruit candidates, and make sure that they are adequately prepared and equipped to win the election.

Unfortunately, I fear that if such institutions are added to the mega party, they would simple become platforms for people to chop money, and become political godfathers or bigmen.

fellis: He looks better in the first picture. In the 2nd picture he looks kind of shabby.

seedord247: Its not in our culture to do such neither does it in bible or quran...

They need to abide with the law of our ancestors..

Sincere 9gerian: Why cant some of you disabuse your minds for even one second? This thread is not about comparing Fashola and GEJ. Rather it is about demand for ACCOUNTABILITY, OPENNESS and TRANSPARENCY at the 3 tiers of govt, particularly as it affects budgeting for food and refreshment at the state level- Lagos state in this instance

Arnold1: What about Ojukwu who ran to Ivory Coast with millions rather than stay and fight ? Isn't he a coward ?

texazzpete: Ironic and amusing how cowed people living contentedly under deviant rulers can call other people 'cowards' with a straight face.
If self-preservation and a total love for life was not the most pressing thing to you all, wouldn't you have gone ahead with the revolution you've all be threatening to declare for so long?

We all belong to a generation that has failed at every turn to force our point through to the Government. Except for a few of the ND millitants who have been able to force a superior power to bend to their point of view, what have you lot done?

pro01: Utter rubbish. Soyinka has more sense than that. He certainly would never make such uncharitable comments for any reason whatsoever. Since when did it become a crime to be illiterate, or to marry someone that is illiterate? In any case, we all know Patience is a graduate, which makes her far from 'illiterate'.

Eko Ile: They were not elected by Yoruba people, there were rigged in by the same useless and incompetent losers wrecking your land. The fact that the clowns you are talking about are Yoruba doesn't mean we don't have endless reservoir of competent people, the competent people you people don't have hence your backwardness and stagnation.


Yoruba people just rightfully elected competent and capable leaders across the SW while getting rid of the useless scums including all the losers you keep shouting all over the place.


Good leadership = Success.

Good leadership in the SW = Success in the SW