₦airaland Forum

wheesin: Baba o....the guy really suffered...but the sad thing was dat he died during my birth month and year....

I remember Fella's funeral very well. You make me feel old

"Is there any spiritual undertone to airplane crashes in Nigeria?

There is."

This was when I stopped reading.

I am a firm critic of the President but I see nothing wrong with him having a drink in a social setting. This picture is a head scratcher.

Tinubu has lost a lot of weight.

This story sounds fake. It is full of hearsay and it's poorly written. I'm surprised the moderators put it on the front page. Unfortunately, some people who would read the title of this story without reading the body and believe it.

kingoflag: "Appetite" instead of "Apartheid", "Sat Africa" instead of "South Africa"...and that's one of the best speeches uve ever heard? why do u guys love mediocrity so much?

LMAO you are very funny. I think that the President's oratory has improved. Is he Barack Obama or Bill Clinton? Definitely not. Nonetheless, I see a big improvement.

samuelkaykay: This political death is too early,its very clear APC cant wrestle power from PDP in 2015 but i want APC to give them a hot chase that will enable a proper wake-up.

You are correct. However, I think that 2015 would have been a tossup had Fashola not deported Igbos. After the Fashola deportation saga, I am 150% sure that PDP will win the 2015 Presidential election. I will obviously hope for PDP not to win but the numbers do not add up for APC. You cannot marginalize Igbos and expect to win a Presidential election. Nigerian political parties do not conduct polling. I cannot understand why a modern political party would operate without a well oiled polling organization.

atlwireles: Why is your margin of victory in the south south so close? 17% for APC not possible.

I put 17% because I wanted to be conservative. I wanted to show APC supporters that even with generous assumptions without the Southeast, they lose.

Kairoseki77: GEJ won the SE with 99% of the vote.

The SE is always going to vote for PDP, and is politcally irrelevant. The swing regions are the North (if APC runs a southern candidate), or the SW (if APC runs a Northern candidate). You are overinflating the importance of the SE vote, especially considering their population is the smallest.

In a popular vote system, you need to win votes everywhere. In 2011, GEJ won over 300K votes in Sokoto and over 290K votes in Gombe. The number of people voting is not what counts in a popular vote system, what counts is the margin of victory. Below are the margins of victory in each region in the 2011 election:

Northwest: Won by Buhari by 3,057,713 votes
Northeast: Won by Buhari by 1,792,297 votes
Northcentral: Won by Jonathan by 1,631,995 votes
Southwest: Won by Jonathan by 2,464,808 votes
Southeast: Won by Jonathan by 4,964,911 votes
Southsouth: Won by Jonathan by 6,068,630 votes


If you look at the above you would see that the margin of victory in the SS and SE are the widest because CPC and ACN were not formidable second place finishers in those regions. APC cannot win a Presidential election if it plans to get 2% in the Southeast. I attached a model for you to analyze the result.

At this moment I am not sure that Fashola can win a Presidential election. Unless he runs against Atiku, Gbenga Daniels, or Babangida. He will lose the Southeast by too wide a margin just like Awolowo. At the moment, that is my sad and honest assessment of the situation. American politicians spend a lot of money on polling. If APC was as sophisticated as the Democratic or Republican party, they would have been polling the situation to find out how it has affected their standing in the Southeast. Unfortunately even the media does not have the initiative to do so. A good headline on the newspaper would be: "80% of Southeasterners Against Fashola for President." Such a headline would wake him up. Another good one would be "85% of Southeasterners View APC Unfavorably."

APC cannot win a Presidential election without the votes of Southeasterners. If they think otherwise, they are in for a rude awakening.They should keep deceiving themselves. Unless PDP nominates Atiku or Babangida, they are going to win the next election and it does not matter how many times APC insults Jonathan. Fashola's actions will cost them dearly and unfortunately they are too stupid to see that. I cannot believe that no party elder could tell Fashola to apologize to the law abiding Igbo community in Lagos.

Nigerians amaze me sometimes. To win a Presidential election in Nigeria, you need to win the popular vote. Even though Jonathan lost Sokoto and Gombe, he won over 290K votes in both states. At the rate APC is going, I don't think that they can win more than 5% of the votes in any Southeastern state. 5% might even be a generous number. Attached is my election projection model as an illustration.

APC is going to be a non-starter in the Southeast, thanks to Fashola.

Fashola is on his way to becoming as unelectable as Buhari. I am a Buhari supporter and I know how hard it is to convince people to vote for a candidate who have a perception problem. If Fashola does not address this issue, his name would become synonymous with Anti-Igbo the same way Buhari's name is now synonymous with Islamic extremist.

ilugunboy: Igbo vote is not national vote....


Igbos are not APC....Fashola is APC...

Stop the empty threat...

The bolded line, is a very shortsighted statement. GEJ lost Sokoto in 2011 but he got 34% which amounted to 309,057 votes; he lost Gombe state but he got 38% which amounted to 290,347 votes. APC does not have to win any states in the Southeast, but they need to be a formidable second place finisher. If 95% of Igbos vote against APC, they will have no realistic chance of winning a national election.

[quote author=baby_123]yawn, again If he becomes president, what will you do? After all Jonathan's orders led to the death of a lot of people in the North. Some even called it genocide. He is still eligible to run for 2015. Stop the crying abeg. Your criminals and beggars are back home. Help them. Stop opening threads that the matter has died and buried. Or is it all the boasting on NL that is making the return trouble you this much[/quote]First of all, I am not an Igbo man and secondly, I am actually a Fashola supporter and I hope that he becomes President one day. I am only concerned that he is about to damage his political brand. I was a Buhari supporter in 2011 and I know how difficult it is to convince people to vote for a candidate who has a perception problem. Fashola does not need a perception problem with Southeast voters. Awolowo had the same perception problem with Southeast voters and it prevented him from becoming President.

Fashola is at a defining moment in his political career. The allegation that he deported Igbos to Onitsha in the middle of the night is about to leave an indelible mark on his political identity. If Fashola does not address this issue quickly, he can kiss his chance of ever winning a national election goodbye. Here is my simple advise to the governor:

1. Host a press conference (or tv interview) and categorically deny having any knowledge of the deportation.
2. Blame it on a Commissioner
3. Fire the aforementioned Commissioner
4. Go on an apology tour where you apologize for the physiological marginalization that this experience has caused to the law abiding Igbo people who live in Lagos.

Oga Fashola, you cannot win a national election if 95% of Igbos vote against you. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are lying to you. Your political identity is at stake. Once Nigerians form an opinion they do not change their mind. You can ask Buhari; despite all the evidence to the contrary, Nigerians will always believe that Buhari is an Islamic extremist.

I'm on board. Sai APC!!!!!!!!

creativemusic: somebody praise the Lord jooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

HALLELUJAH!!!!!!!!!

This is more complex than many people might expect. Even a blind man wants to be seen with an attractive woman. I once heard a story about a white blind man who had been blind since birth. He had a deep crush on a black woman but he didn't know that she was black. He eventually found out that she was black and he was surprised that her race became a factor in the way he felt about her even though he has been blind since birth. Life is interesting and complex.

Ngwakwe: Your are resident on this board and should know that pro Buhari with multiple IDs are far more in number.

I can only assume that some of them are no longer comfortable with his utterances and desire a young pragmatic leader like Fashola, Rochas, Adams or even El rufia as the presidential flag bearer of the opposition come 2015.

There are far more GEJ minions who are probably paid to defend GEJ on nairaland and who have multiple IDs. Buhari supporters are regular people with regular jobs who don't have time to be creating multiple IDs to rig an unscientific internet poll.

The 40 laptop users have inflated the result for GEJ.

tomakint: I think Solape is missing up some points in her submission here! I understand her sentiments which is pathetic but it must be put in proper perspectives for the sake of posterity! Kaduna Nzeogwu did not kill her Mum, that was Tim (Timothy) Onwutageru (Katsumoto or Dede1 can correct me on this if I am wrong) a coup is a coup anywhere it is either commended or condemned! In the case of the January 15 Putsch it was celebrated nationwide then until the BBC turned it into a 'Tribal Coup'!

She was an eye witness. She saw him pull the trigger and kill her parents right in front of her.

I hear that governor Ajimobi is not doing anything in Oyo state. He was elected on Fashola's coattails and chances are that he may not win reelection.

obadiah777: BUT HE IS A NIGERIAN. YOU ARE NOT WHERE YOU ARE BORN. YOU ARE YOUR HERITAGE. IF I PLANT AN APPLE SEED IN CHINA WHAT WILL COME OUT ? AN APPLE. IF I PLANT THE SAME APPLE SEED IN NIGERIA WHAT WILL COME OUT ? AN APPLE. YOU ARE NOT WHERE YOU ARE BORN. THATS A PREPOSTEROUS CARNAL AND SHALLOW ASSERTION. WE ALL HAVE LINEAGES. JUST CUZ A CHINESE MAN IS BORN IN NIGERIA DOES NOT MEAN HE IS NIGERIAN

I once met a white girl who was born in Kogi state who is more Nigerian than me. Her pidgin is fluent and everything about her is Nigerian except the color of her skin. I consider her more Nigerian than a kid born and raised in America with Nigerian parents.

I have also met a white man in Lagos who was born and raised in Nigeria, speaks Yoruba and pidgin fluently and married to a Nigerian woman etc. This man is more Yoruba than many Yoruba kids in Victoria Island and Lekki.

I have always viewed the PDP with contempt and I have longed for the day Nigeria would have two evenly matched political parties. When ACN, CPC, ANPP, and parts of APGA announced the formation of APC, I was ecstatic. I even reconfigured my 2011 election projection model to analyse the circumstances that could lead to an APC victory in the 2015 Presidential Election.

Unfortunately, the merger has dragged for too long. The PDP played a very clever political trick by registering a dummy political party with the same acronym. While I despise the poor performance of the PDP in government, their decision to form another APC was a BRILLIANT political move. Whether or not the dummy APC previals, it has achieved its objective of slowing down the momentum of the opposition.

At this moment, the excitement I had over the APC merger has waned. I am sick and tired of being disappointed by the opposition. Nigeria needs progress and the current crop of progressive leaders need to organize themselves properly.

I personally propose that the opposition leaders cut their losses and register a new party. While PDP may have won the first round of this battle, they should remember that "he who fights and runs away, may live to fight another day."

[quote author=simply_me]if PDP registered APC, then, if APC registers with another name, so PDP will then also register that new name, abi?[/quote]My understanding is that the opposition made the announcement before they officially filed papers with INEC. Hence, the second time around, they need to file the papers with INEC before they make their announcement.

I have always viewed the PDP with contempt and I have longed for the day Nigeria would have two evenly matched political parties. When ACN, CPC, ANPP, and parts of APGA announced the formation of APC, I was ecstatic. I even reconfigured my 2011 election projection model to analyse the circumstances that could lead to an APC victory in the 2015 Presidential Election.

Unfortunately, the merger has dragged for too long. The PDP played a very clever political trick by registering a dummy political party with the same acronym. While I despise the poor performance of the PDP in government, their decision to form another APC was a BRILLIANT political move. Whether or not the dummy APC previals, it has achieved its objective of slowing down the momentum of the opposition.

At this moment, the excitement I had over the APC merger has waned. I am sick and tired of being disappointed by the opposition. Nigeria needs progress and the current crop of progressive leaders need to organize themselves properly.

I personally propose that the opposition leaders cut their losses and register a new party. While PDP may have won the first round of this battle, they should remember that "he who fights and runs away, may live to fight another day."

Afritop: PROBABLY A SECRET SURGERY OF THE BRAIN. Appendicitis is curable here in Nigeria. Very soon our Leaders will be running abroad to cure malaria and even common fever.

Dude, they already go abroad to treat malaria.

django1: Dt logo is really ugly tho...but NTA is a reflection of everything nigeria!

Hmmmm I actually thought that Murtala Mohammed Airport was a reflection of everything Nigeria. What do you think? NTA or Murtala Mohammed Airport?

[quote author=I-B.]But used federal character to select the best from each tribe.[/quote]na lie.

I am a big Fashola supporter; but things like merriment tax is what makes some people to hate Fashola. Oga Fashola if you want a sales tax, that is different. But to target people who are celebrating to pay extra tax on top of the sales tax they have paid to purchase the items they are using the celebrate?? That is hard to comprehend.