₦airaland Forum

Very well said my brother. From the beginning the odds were stacked up against Buhari. Nonetheless, Buhari at least won a consolation prize. He showed us that in the Core North, there is only one HNIC (Head N*gger in Charge). His campaign had very little money and barely had any structure on ground, but he won 12 states with very convincing margins. In those states it did not matter if PDP spent 10 billion in each of them, they were going to vote for Buhari regardless. It will take a long time for any politician to be able to have the cult-like level of support that Buhari had in the North. Unfortunately he was unable to generate that kind of support beyond his base.

I think that the lesson here that people need to learn is that although money is important in politics, it is not the only thing needed. Buhari had a unique opportunity to touch the lives of Nigerians in the Core North through PTF and they never forgot him for that. If only he made PTF as impactful in the South as it was in the North, maybe, just maybe the story would have been different.

Unfortunately it is now fair to assume that Buhari will never be president of Nigeria again. His priority now should be securing his legacy. I hope history judges him fairly.

Beaf:
Balarabe Musa is a backward ethnic bigot not worth the trouble. He is in the same category as Ciroma and Kaita, angry and unwise old men.

Can you please attack the message without slandering the messenger?

I agree with Omega25red on this. What you are doing may work with a girl dancing by herself but certainly not when a girl is dancing with her friends. Sometimes girls enjoy dancing with their friends. That's just the way it is. I have found from experience that chatting with the girl helps. Give her compliments (not too many), be yourself, and then ask her to dance.

Park Chung Hee is an example.  He brought development to his country with military precision and he had the resolve and the determination to fight corruption.  His time in Office was not perfect that is why I have added different caveats to my argument and yes I know he is not living.  But he is an example of a dictator who moved his country in the right direction.  Most people give him credit for building the infrastructural and economic foundation of South Korea.  When he became President, South Korea's per capita GDP was less than Ghana's.  Today South Korea has the 15th largest economy in the world and a very high standard of living.

Also Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader of the People's Republic of China from 1978 to 1992 also had the courage to put in place the reforms that have set his country on the path to become the next leading super power in the world.  His was a dictatorship with mild checks and balances.

You will be surprised that Nigerians don't mind being dictated as long as the person dictating is making peoples lives better.  I remember the days of Buba Marwa in Lagos.  He made cosmetic improvements in Lagos and improved security by creating Operation Sweep and before we knew it he became very popular.  People loved him even though they hated the military.

There are examples of societies who jump started themselves with technocracies.  Nonetheless, I still believe that democracy offers the best option for the smooth transition of power.  For a democracy to work effectively, we need an informed and educated electorate.  We currently have millions of voting age citizens who cannot read and write.  In addition, we have schools that are not educating our children; and up North, we have millions of children being educated under a system that is based primarily on memorizing a religious text.  This gives us citizens who are ignorant, sentimental, and short sighted.  This is reflected in the leaders that we elect as well as the state of our country.  These things need to be corrected before our democracy can thrive.

Sun of god:
Up until this point I thought you were sane:

Please review the history of Nigeria - As the definition of insanity is doing things the same way but expecting different results.

All that s.hit you posted in the last paragraph has already been tried and failed . . .  . .

Dude, we are discussing a hypothesis on how Oga Fashola can effectively become a progressive compassionate dictator.  That is the context of my argument.  Don't call my argument s.hit and don't imply that I am insane.  That hurts my feelings .

On a side note I think that I should have arranged the paragraphs differently.  What the last paragraph was saying was "if this was to ever happen, this is how it could happen".  The paragraph before it offered my opinion on why an arrangement like this will be hard to make successful.  I have changed the arrangement of the paragraphs to improve the flow of my argument.

Democracy for the sake of Democracy is the "demonstration of craziness". 

Democracy with voters who cant read and write +
Democracy with voters who are very susceptible to ethnic bigotry +
Democracy with voters susceptible to religious extremism =
NIGERIA

Obviously having a leader with absolute power and no form of checks and balances is not the solution.  Nonetheless, we should not outrightly dismiss societies that are less democratic.  A less democratic society works best when it is a technocracy.  When the best and the brightest minds in the country for a limited period of time make the key decision needed to get a country off the ground.  An advantage that less democratic societies have is that decisions are made very quickly and implementation does not get stuck in red tape.  Countries like South Korea, China, Qua tar, etc have developed rapidly because of this.  It also helps when certain checks are put in place to prevent the rise of a cult of personality and also to secure a succession process.  I will not support Fashola becoming a supreme leader who rules by decrees.  But if we have a technocracy similar to China where there is a standing committee (board of directors) made up of brilliant people who go out to search for a President (CEO); if there is a retirement age from the standing committee, hence, it is not a lifetime appointment.  If the President has term limits like China where a president can serve for two 5 yr terms among other things.  Then this can be considered.

Outside of a civil war that brings in a progressive crop of leaders, moments that lead to progressive governments do not present themselves very often.  They usually happen when there is a small window of opportunity.  Given how bloody a civil war will be, a progressive coup d'état may be a more realistic option.  This time it can be made up of an upright Ceremonial Military President (with towering integrity like Idiagbon) with a Civilian Prime Minister like Fashola who forms a government.  The Military can serve as an anti-corruption watchdog and certain rules can be put in place e.g. term limits, succession plan, etc.

Nonetheless, I doubt this can work in Nigeria.  We are too divided.  Before you know it people will say there are not enough Igbo people in the government, not enough Hausa people, not enough Christians or Muslims etc.  Then to meet these demands mediocre people will be added to the government.  The end result will be a country that moved from being controlled by many mediocre leaders to a country that is controlled by few mediocre leaders.  In addition, systems like this often lead to the existence of a dangerous personality cult and no succession plan in the event the president dies.  This is not good for posterity.

Wassup with Chime growing his Moustache like Adolf Hitler?

cjfavour:
the question is; is marwa a credible candidate?

I do not live in Adamawa state and I do not know whether the residents of Adamawa have a favorable opinion of him.  From a very high level, he looks like a sellable candidate for a state like Adamawa.  He looks like a candidate that can build a broad base of Muslims and Christians which is very important for a state like Adamawa that is 47% Christian.  A person like Marwa, if elected, can help dispel the negative opinion that people have of CPC.

The Adamawa governorship race in January 2012 may be CPC's chance to make a comeback.  Their current candidate, Buba Marwa, is a man with national name recognition.  In addition, since Marwa's image is that of a Muslim who transcends religion, him becoming the poster child for CPC could help heal the party's wounds.

In addition, if CPC can win in Adamawa with Marwa, it could make an opposition alliance in 2015 stronger because it will give such an alliance/merger the much needed regional balance.

Right now it appears that Marwa's campaign is struggling.  My suggestion is for ACN not to field a candidate for this race.  In addition, I think that ACN should try campaigning for Marwa with the hope of building political capital with him.  Such political can come in handy when the time comes to discuss a possible alliance/merger.  What do you guys think?

When I was in Nigeria, I looked at my cousins National ID card and I saw that it did not have a number on it. What use is a national ID card without a number. Also I do not think that national ID card should include state of origin. It should include state of residence. We need to scrap that state of origin nonsense from our political debate.

Demdem takes on Beaf and wins

Sai Buhari!!!!!!!!!!! I am a proud Nigerian Christian from the Niger Delta but I will choose Buhari over Jonathan 100 times if I could. Buhari on his worst day will always be better than Jonathan. It is as clear as night and day. Shikena!!!

efisher:
My good friend, long time. I really enjoyed your analysis during the last elections.

@Bolded, I agree with you. I think we need a stronger and more focused opposition in 2015. If the opposition can get its act together and possibly take over the presidency in 2015, Nigeria will benefit a lot more cos things will be done differently. Lots of things that may have been hidden will be brought to fore and the system will be improved. There will be a renewed passion for good governance and PDP will provide good challenge as an opposition.  PDP has taken us thus far, I think Nigeria is matured enough to move on now. The only condition is that the opposition has to get its house in order (recall the ACN + CPC failed rush hour deal. How can one entrust the entire nation to such an unstable, rickety, premature contraption?). An opposition with the likes of Fashola, Donald Duke, Pat Utomi, El Rufai, Sanusi, etc all in one team and working with singleness of purpose will be great.

efisher my good friend. We had great discussions during the last election. Nairaland needs to add an inbox to each account. You are one of the people on nairaland that I hope I can one day meet in person. I look forward to making more contributions going forward. Take care my brother.

PointB:
Can you corroborate the bolded?

Indeed it's true that Ayim and Fashola are not in the same league. For while the latter has a treasury looter and felon as Godfather, they former has none. And if this is not a barometer for measuring integrity, then I wonder what is. As for Okorocha, he has portrayed his grasps of Imo state problems and challenges with amazing ease and some of the solutions he has proffered are very insightful. Beyond that, his antecedent in philanthropy across the nation set him head and shoulder above other politician. PDP will be foolish not to make overture to especially since they can barely any Northern politician that is up to scratch.

Dude, the SE want power in 2015!!! Don't you get it? Your argument about power going to the North does not hold water, on is simply because they are not bombing the places like Boko Haram and MEND before them? GEJ knows better not to make any commitment to the North. 2015 election will be very interesting, when the permutations begin to unravel.

PointB, we all know that President Jonathan decided to seek only one term because of pressure from the Northern Governors / Political Elite. The agreement to zone the office of the Presidency to the North in 2015 is implied and not overt. I feel horrible engaging in this type of argument given that I consider myself a progressive who looks beyond tribe, ethnicity, and religion. Above all I think that those of us who are educated and enlightened should be challenging the zoning status quo and not conceding to it.

As for the Fashola vs. Ayim comparison, Fashola has proven himself to be an effective administrator whose results speak for him. Yes he has the Tinubu baggage but you cannot tell me that Ayim does not have corrupt PDP chieftains that he, unfortunately, has to work with in one way or the other. Ayim does not have the achievements that Fashola has as an executive. In fact, many Government insiders say that what Ayim has going for himself is that he is a "Yes Man" hence he stays in the good books of the power brokers in PDP. Can you please list Ayim's meaningful accomplishments and objectively ask yourself if they come close to Fashola's. We do not need sentiments. As for Okorocha, his antecedent as a philanthropist is impressive and he seems to have his heart in the right place. Moreover, the close election in Imo really boosted his name recognition. Now is the time to see how well he can execute. Right now, all he needs to do is to perform well to secure his legacy.

Btw, I am happy that the we both agree that PDP does not have an exceptional Northerner who is ready to run for President in 2015. However, they can find a non-controversial mediocre like Yaradua to promote. Remember they succeeded when they did that in 2007.

On a side note, you seem to be of the opinion that the next President must come from PDP. Don't you think that strengthening the opposition will be good for our democracy? We are not yet a country with political parties that are based on ideology. With the exception of ANPP and its overt support for Sharia Law, most Nigerians just want to vote for a leader who will work towards providing us with the basic things of life. I think that it is imperative that we have a credible and strong alternative to the ruling party that can put up a formidable national push for political power on the Federal level and state level across the country. Having such an alternative will be an incentive for our leaders to give us nothing but their best. I rest my case. It was nice arguing with you bro.

PointB:
That is not how the system work; and besides what made you think others agree with you that Sanusi and Fashola are competent? Competent in what exactly? Sanusi ruining the banking industries and heating up the polity? Or Fashola looking the other way while Tinubu and co line the their pocket with looted treasury? If that's your description of competency, then I am afraid competency has found a new low.

Their dodgy competency aside, lets look at the politics, and how the system works. Presently, they system seems to abhor muslim/muslim ticket especially at the highest level. So Sanusi/Fashola ticket is dead on arrival. Unless, they are satisfied with winning core north, and SW state with narrow margins, opening a a huge opportunity for the PDP to mop up. And make no mistake, Sanusi is not popular in SW. What Buhari could not do with his so called integrity, Sanusi open bigotry especially against SW and their leaders will come to hurt him if he venture for the highest level, not even fashola can save him.

Now your assumption that PDP will go for a 'non-controversial mediocre Northerner for president and an above average Southerner (Chime, Amaechi, Donald Duke') as VP is equally wrong. PDP will look for a strong candidate in 2015, especially if GEJ does not satisfy Nigerians yearn. PDP factor for selecting strong candidate will most likely be performance and integrity and with PDP knowing that In 2015, SE will not be playing second fiddle, will Chime or Ayim. I doubt if Duke is still in PDP. I also  see PDP making overtures to Rachas, who will have the mandate of Ohaneze and APGA to go for it. Rochas (as PDP and APGA presidential candididate) will then pair with a strong Northern political heavy weight for the titanic battle. The outcome will be bigger that the GEJ landslide.

That is how the battle of 2015 will play out bros! Power then go back to the North at the next election if single term is agreed. And in my own opinion, that is how Nigeria can mover forward as one.

My brother, I disagree with you.  Can you please provide me with the name of the Northerner that PDP will choose who is not a non-controversial mediocre?  I need examples please.  In addition please explain to me how that PDP Northerner is more competent than Fashola and Sanusi. 

Sanusi has cleaned up the banking sector.  There were so many risk management lapses and malpractices in the sector that Soludo overlooked.  Sanusi stood up against the power brokers in that sector even when it meant sometimes standing alone and today the sector has made a rebound.  Profits are up and balance sheets are healthy again. 

As for Fashola, I think it is laughable when you infer that Fashola is incompetent and then go on to say that Ayim has competence and integrity.  Fashola may be not be perfect, but Fashola and Ayim are not in the same league.  As for Okorocha, he is yet to prove himself with concrete results.  He is in the above average category because of his positive overtures and PR.  We need to see results before he can be classified as good, great, or exceptional. 

My brother, if you are concerned about the unity of Nigeria as you say you are, then the presidency needs to go back to the North in 2015.  Dude, the North wants power in 2015!!!!!!  Don't you get it??  Your argument about power going to the SE does not hold water.  PDP has a zoning arrangement.  Jonathan said that he will serve for 1 term and hand over power to the North.  Going by that assumption, I think it is safe to say that PDP will nominate a "non-controversial mediocre Northerner" in 2015.

PointB:
It will be a bigot muslim/moderate muslim ticket. It will sell like hot cake in the North, gathering fifty percent of Northern vote. But the other fifty percent christians in the North will vote against it. The pair will will not make any headway in the SS/SE, and Benue, Jos, Adamawa. Non-indigene population will resist it. Besides, I dont see why Fashola will agree serve as a junior partner to Sanusi, knowing well that Vice President is a figure head position these days. Speaking of which I ask where is Sambo?

PointB, I beg to differ with you on this one.  Here are my reasons:

Chances are that PDP will most likely nominate a non-controversial mediocre Northerner for president and an above average Southerner (Chime, Amaechi, or Donald Duke) for vice-president.  Sanusi's Sharia baggage is not as big as Buhari's Sharia baggage.  In addition Fashola transcends religion, hence people do not view him from a religious lens.  If the integrity myth that I suggested can be created long in advance, Fashola and Sanusi will have a good chance of winning the 12 States Buhari won in 2011 + the 6 states in the SW.  Since Sanusi and Fashola have less Sharia Baggage than Buhari, Adamawa, Nassarawa, and Taraba could become too close to call.   In addition, Kwara could be more competitive (40 - 45% may even be feasible).  Furthermore, I doubt that the margins that we saw in the SS and SE in 2011 will repeat themselves in 2015.  Regardless of whether PDP wins in the SS and SE, I am sure that Fashola and Sanusi will do better than Buhari's 1% in Rivers, Delta, and Cross River etc.  At the end of the day folks will have to choose between competence and mediocrity.  Fashola being on the ticket will give the ticket the credibility factor to still compete in the SS and SE and garner 20 -30% of the vote in some of the states there.

As for your second concern, a VP is only as powerful as a President wants him/her to be.  When a VP adds electoral value to the ticket or has a strong track record, his/her bargaining hand becomes stronger.  For example Okonjo-Iweala's bargaining hand with Jonathan was very strong.  The president had to beg her to join his team and she in turn decided to join his team on her terms.  Sambo was a mediocre political featherweight before he was elevated to the Vice-Presidency.  In addition, Sambo's political obituary was signed when PDP lost Kaduna in the Presidential election.  Fashola has too much political clout to be made a figure head VP.  Any president who makes Fashola a figure head VP will do so at his/her own peril.

Overall, I still think that this ticket will give us a chance of having 16 years of uninterrupted competent leadership.

I just had an epiphany .  What do you guys think about a Sanusi/Fashola Ticket? Since the North wants power, we can field a brilliant Northerner who happens to be the grandson of the former Emir of Kano and a young competent Governor who can be groomed to run for President once Sanusi's time is up.  This will give us 16 uninterrupted years of effective leadership.  In the years leading up to 2015, ACN can launch a propaganda campaign in the North via Hausa BBC to create the myth that Sanusi has towering integrity so that a cult of personality can be built around him. 

Off course such a decision by ACN or CNPP (if they are wise enough to come together) will have to be poll tested etc.

Hello My Fellow Political Junkies on Nairaland,

I know that there is already a 2015 poll on this section, however, the poll does not include the names of some potential candidates that could jump into the race.  Hence, I felt it would be nice to create this post for folks to have a broader list to choose from.

As for 2015, I am once again cautiously optimistic about the chance of the opposition to put up a formidable fight.  Last time we made some tactical errors that cost us dearly.  Alliances/Mergers were not made on time, Presidential Candidates began touring the country too late, the two major opposition Presidential candidates were not conducting scientific polling, hence, campaign resources and candidate travel time was not well targeted.  In addition, my favorite candidate spend most of his time rallying support in his strong holds, by the time he finished rallying the base, there wasn't enough time to make inroads into states where the campaign was vulnerable.

Despite all of this, I am still hopeful.  The opposition has its mistakes to learn from and hopeful the leadership of the opposition will not repeat them.  I firmly believe that a formidable and strong opposition will make our democracy stronger.  We need multiple national parties that can compete in all 36 states.  Unfortunately, at the moment we only have 1 national party.

I agree with Balarabe Musa's proposal that the major opposition parties should merge.  Now is the time for such merger talks to start, if the opposition wants to be ready to put forward a formidable fight by 2015.

Whether or not the opposition will succeed will depend on several factors.  Some of them are as follows:

1.  Jonathan's approval rating on Election Day:  Although the president's popularity has taken a hit recently, 3 years is a long time in politics.  If I was on President Jonathan's staff I would advise him to make the repair of all the federal interstate highways one of his top priorities.  Although the project is not as big as the power project or security or education or health care, it is something that people can see and a carrot that he could always point to when he is under attack.  It is also a project his party can point to as evidence that they are not too terrible.  At any rate, Jonathan's performance will have a big impact on the party's chances in 2015.

2.  PDP candidate's geopolitical region and crossover appeal:  The electoral map will be deeply affected by the PDP candidate's geopolitical zone.  Nonetheless PDP has a history of picking candidates that have crossover appeal.  With the exception of President Jonathan who was a divisive figure in the Core North because of Zoning, PDP has a record of choosing candidates that can be sold in every part of the country. 

3.  Whether or not the opposition decides to merge and the number of opposition candidates

4.  Crossover appeal of opposition candidate and geopolitical region of opposition candidate

Assuming PDP follows it's zoning tradition and nominates a Northerner in 2015, here are some factors that I think would influence the race for the following candidates:

Fashola:  Will win South West and North Central (excluding Niger State).  Will win Taraba and Adamawa; will get above 40% in Kaduna; will be competitive in the South South.  The election will be decided in the South East.

El Rufai:  Although El Rufai's made the political calculation of aligning himself with Buhari to increase his street cred in the North, it is yet to be determined whether he actually gained the name recognition with the average Northerner that he was looking for.  Also I doubt he has Buhari's level of cult-like following.  Hence there is a chance that a PDP Hausa speaking Northerner could use the party resources to outmatch El Rufai in the North.  Furthermore, although he is somewhat popular among educated progressives in the South, he is still a divisive figure.  Hence people in the South could play it safe and vote PDP, thus leading to a blow out.

Sanusi:  Although Sanusi's crossover appeal is now debatable, he is still highly respected by the most fringe elements of the progressive movement (myself included ).  Unfortunately, his Islamic Banking proposition has been demagogue by some in the Christian establishment (CAN, PFN, etc).  This will make it difficult for him to have the much needed decisive victory he will need to have against a PDP northerner in the South.

Okorocha:  Needs more time to prove himself, nonetheless, he still has goodwill and crossover appeal.  Assuming he can prove himself and have measurable results to run on, he will be a strong candidate.  He will do well in the SE, NC (excluding Niger), Adamawa, and Taraba.  He could also get 40%+ in Kaduna, and be competitive (but not necessarily win) in the SW and SS.

Ribadu:  Old news.  I would advise him to run for Senate or Governor.  I think Senate will be good for him.  He can go there and become the whistle blower in chief.

Adams Oshiomhole:  I was very disappointed by the video of him ordering the arrest of an individual in front of journalists holding cameras.  Such an action brings his temperament into question.  Nonetheless, Oshiomhole has 9 political lives.  He had an alliance with Anenih and Lucky Igbinedion before running for governor (at least that is word on the street); he hosted Babangida, and now he is currently dealing with this PR disaster/blatant abuse of power.  If he can continue to build roads, schools, and hospitals, I guess people will forget about this.  His electoral map is similar to Fashola's, although I doubt his SW support will be as strong.  For Oshiomhole SW and SE will decide the election.

On the other hand PDP could throw us a curve ball.  They could ditch the zoning policy and nominate a popular Southerner like Okonjo Iweala, Rotimi Ameachi, or Chime.

Let me know what you think.  Sorry for the length of the post.

This story breaks my heart. It is unfortunate that ethnic bigotry is an indelible part of Nigeria's DNA.

pDude:
What the furk is that guy talking about?

I dey laff!

I think that  fork adict explained my reason for laughing succinctly: "all Baba Abati said in his piece can best be described as a celebration of mediocrity or just blatant lies."

i dey laugh

My uncle told me that when he and his wife filed their taxes in Lagos that his wife had to pay tax of 700 naira even though she is a housewife.

I do not believe in Juju.  I just do not believe in it.  When you believe that a problem is caused by spiritual forces, it infringes on your ability to come up with rational and objective solutions.  For example this story talks about how appointments are added to the President's schedule at the last minute.  Has there been any conversation about whether the President is overworked or whether he needs to do more exercise in order to have more stamina?  They speak about how the President is forgetful.  How he forgets to reprimand members of his staff when needed.  Can these be early signs of dementia?  These are questions that educated people should ask. 

People need to stop jumping into Juju conclusions without even exploring other possibilities.  When the British came to Nigeria, they had machine guns and we had Juju and evil forests.  Well, we know who won that fight.

Yinka Odumaike is the man!!!!

aletheia:

^Overall, a nice post that was spoiled at the end by this sentence. It's time we Nigerians learned how to lose gracefully. In a democracy; we may not agree with the people's choice but we should at least respect it. The irony of the situation is that a Northern candidate may well have won the election if it wasn't any of the old guard which Nigerians associate with the problems of Nigeria (represented by Buhari) but was younger (Buhari should have stepped down for Ribadu). A lot of people voted GEJ because he represented the best option of preventing a Buhari presidency IMO.

@aletheia, I am just a bit disappointed. I think a vibrant opposition if necessary for a democracy to be strengthened. We need to have formidable options. I know that I may appear like a sore loser, but, if it counts for anything, I am not disputing the result. I am only disappointed.

efisher:
Danjohn, I know you are a nice guy and you really mean well for Nigeria. So can we put it this way: We all pray that GEJ will deliver the goods. Let's come together and move the nation forward. With the new mix in government and the renewed belief in democracy, we will succeed together.

efisher, in fairness to Jonathan he has strengthened our democracy with this election. Although this election is not perfect, it is a reflection of public opinion. That in itself is a step in the right direction. My hope and prayer is that Jonathan makes the Power (electricity) issue his top priority. If President Jonathan can light up Nigeria, that will restart the engine of our economy and begin the journey to towards making Nigeria great again. It is the job of those of us in the opposition to make sure that Jonathan keeps true to his promises.

May God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Buhari needed Ribadu to win the Southwest commandingly. I have always been of the opinion that the election will be decided in the Southwest. Buhari supporters please do not raise your blood pressure with over anticipation. I feel very horrible. I cannot be in denial anymore.

The Southwest factor that I could not answer before the election has been answered. Northwest and Northeast was going to vote Buhari. Northcentral was going to be split between Buhari and Jonathan with Jonathan getting a higher share. South South and South East was to go for Jonathan. The election was to be decided in the Southwest. Southwest has chosen Jonathan and they have given us our President for the next 4 years. People deserve the leaders they have and unfortunately, Nigeria deserves the Poverty Development Party.

@Sun of god,

You are a trouble maker.

His wife is cute 

This is a nice Ribadu family picture.

This is a very nice picture. I just thought I should share it with nairalanders.