₦airaland Forum

Kilode, if you believe that there was nothing we disagreed about, then with no offense intended, you need to reread what was written.

His perspective prior to this last post was radically different from mine. And also wrong.

PapaBrowne: The interesting ish about the four things you've used as examples(bolded in red) is that they are all Agribusiness or related if you like. Now, if you don't farm these things you've mentioned, then you will have to be buying raw materials for these(you don't even have a port) and that effectively knocks out any comparative advantage you sought. Your products would be more expensive than those from Ghana so your factories would close down in a second. Practicalities,Practicalities, Practicalities. Focus today on AgriBusiness, in the middle term on Light Manufacturing and Support Services, provide basic infrastructure, develop local entreprenuership and prime them for regional expansion, before thinking about industrialization.
With globalization, you really can't compete with unestablished guys talkless of the well established guys!

The second highest export item out of Nigeria today is cocoa. This cocoa is loaded on ships, transported to Europe. Then enters a chocolate factory. Is loaded on a ship, then sent for consumption in Nigeria, the US, etc.

So you are telling me that the fact that we don't have a port in Ekiti State means that it is cheaper to transport cocoa from Ondo and Ekiti State to France, then bring it back to Nigeria rather than just transport it 30 minutes to my factory in Ekiti?

7000+ mile journey is more desirable than a 100 mile one?

Again, you need to think through these things more deeply. The same poor roads hurt EVERYONE. They hurt the Chinese businessman wanting to sell his goods to Nigeria, and they hurt me too. But since they hurt everyone equally, I am at no disadvantage. And moreover, for selling things for the LOCAL West African market, where:

a) There is very little manufacturing
b) Very few competitors
c) My logistics and costs are cheaper than the manufacturer in China, assuming that electricity is fixed

then I have a significant edge.

Look, I'm not making mouth alone. Whichever governor in the Southwest of Nigeria solves electricity first, then I will put together money to start manufacturing. Not out of kindness, charity or generosity. But because I want more $$$$, and smell a business opportunity.

But I get your point though!! If you want people to work, you must have factories and to have factories, electricity is essential.

Indeed.

lari03: Are you sure he is not doing 4&5 already. you are not in Nigeria, you don't watch the local news its not every thing the media places on the internet.

Heh. I'm not in Nigeria, but my family is. Where do you think I heard about sourcing electricity from a cement plant in Kogi from? This is something it seems Fayemi has started to looked into.

Look, I have nothing against the guy and hope that he does well. But this doesn't mean I know a priori 90% that he will do well, or that he is doing the best that he can.

@shymmex: You lure investors by presenting them with profitable opportunities.

If electricity costs the same (or even 20-30% more) in Ekiti that it costs in China...well the business opportunities are obvious..I don't need to spell them out, do I?

So you've reduced the problem of industrialization to solving electricity.

And assuming that the FG deregulates it fully, then this is something that the state government can do.

I don't understand the relevance of this Kosovo example...it has absolutely no relation to this thread or what I am talking about.

Being 35th in the revenue sharing table is a disadvantage, but not a tremendous one, for the following reasons:

1. First, Ekiti is a relatively small state.
2. Even with no additional improvement in revenue, what currently exists can be spent more wisely.
3. If you are spending 50%+ of your budget on capital expenditure, it will pay off tremendously in the future.
4. IGR can be increased.
5. Most importantly, the things that Ekiti needs beyond roads, we'll need to partner with the private sector to get anyways. So not having much cash on hand isn't necessarily a disadvantage. If/when the FG completely deregulates power, it won't cost much money to set up an industrial park in eastern Ekiti State and power it with electricity from Dangote's Obanaja cement plant in nearby Kogi State, for example. The government's job will be to facilitate for the private sector and lead it in the right direction, not dole out cash.

All it takes is vision. Something that Fayemi possibly lacks, admittedly.

Ekiti's best bet as far as development goes is to listen to people who think like I do. Not those who are suggesting agric or services as panacea or something.

Simply put, neither of those dogs will hunt.

PapaBrowne: There was a reason I used the word AgriBusiness as against Agriculture. They are two very different things. Agribusiness covers the entire value chain and is actually a very good way to improve light manufacturing. Agribusiness covers research, farming, leasing, supply chain management, light manufacturing and a host of other element.
Just to put things in perspective , let me give you employment figures by sector in countries we should aspire to emulate;
China: Agric-49%,Industry-22%, Services-29%
Brazil: Agric-20% Industry-22%, Services-66%
Turkey: Agric: 35%,Industry-22% Services-41%
India: Agric: 60%, Industry-17%, Services-23%.

1. First of all, the trend is what is important. I can guarantee you that most of the job growth in those countries has not been in agric. It is a bit silly to say that because 49% of China's current employment is in agriculture, that their best bet would be to focus on that. Instead, they've been focusing on something else since the 90s..

Why don't you pull up the statistics for what fraction of employment those sectors contributed to China's economy in 1990 versus today. Why not also display growth across sectors as well...that tells the direction of growth rather than your snapshot.

2. OK, so you want agribusiness, not agric. You want "the entire value chain." Of the part of the value chain you mentioned, the only part which will create lots of jobs is light manufacturing. Now, as you know, it is impossible to manufacture anything at competitive prices w/o access to affordable electricity. So your argument is nonsensical...you are shouting "agric", but the only part which will actually create mass employment is the one that requires electricity, as I said.

Interestingly, even in the most developed countries, it is the services that carries the day and not industry. Industrialization is good, but as it stands today, we don't have comparative advantage. For light manufacturing, maybe yes. For big time industry we need know-how and we need steel and a developed petrochemical sector. Without these three factors, there is no possibility of industrialization. It would only remain a tall dream.

3. Services are fine for post-industrial countries like the USA and many European countries. Where labor is extremely expensive. But it absolute folly to advocate that a third world country somehow skip over industrialization into services.

4. Why on earth would you bring up heavy industry? Who in this thread is mentioning it? Look, we don't need to (nor is it realistic) be manufacturing aircraft carriers in Ekiti State tomorrow. However, it is quite realistic for to for example get into textiles. Peanut butter factories. Rice mills. Chocolate factories. Taiwan and Singapore started from relatively low-tech light industry/manufacturing, and we can do the same.

Regarding fatalistic..

You need certain things to survive in this world. Electricity being one of them.

If the FG continues to make electricity its sole domain and prevents you from delivering it to your own state, then I'm not sure how much agric will really help.

If you are suffering from a bad back, knee surgery isn't going to be of much use.

Not sure it is fatalistic so much as realistic.

PapaBrowne: You've just painted a fatalistic situation because all the things you've mentioned- electricity and transportation aren't in the control capacity of Ekiti as a state. Investors always seeks areas with best ROI. Investors would rather build power stations in Lagos state for proximity to markets and in the Niger Delta for proximity to Gas. Its only when these areas have experienced saturation that investors would start thinking of areas like Ekiti. It is the reality. The cost of building electricity infrastructure is enormous, hence unless there is adequate economic incentive, no investor would expend a dime building power stations in Ekiti. The state Government on the other hand doesn't have the financila capacity to make that happen.

Ah. So the point is, we don't need them to build a power plant in Ekiti State. We just lay wire to the closest plant in a nearby state and purchase electricity from them.

About transportation to the coast, that's under the purview of the Feds. So if the PDP led Govt in Abuja keeps messing up, then be sure that Ekiti is making no progress. Which makes the case a fatalistic one because none of the recommendations you've made are within the control of Ekiti as a State. So if you want something Ekiti has leverage over, Agribusiness is about the only option. And by the way, the two largest employers of labour in most societies are Agriculture and construction upon which you can build a viable services industry.

Agriculture is the largest employer of labor in the third world, yes. But presumably people want to do more than subsistence farming, like their ancestors did

In industrialized and industrializing societies, agriculture employs a miniscule fraction of the work force. I doubt if even 0.1% of the US's population is involved in agriculture directly..it is some tiny fraction.

More to the point, agric at a non-subsistence level doesn't create many jobs. So if Ekiti's goal is to create employment (quality employment I should perhaps clarify, not subsistence farming), agric is not the path towards that objective.

@Aigbofa: To be fair, regulation in Nigeria makes things difficult. But yeah, I wish they showed more imagination.

For example it annoys me when I hear governors and folk talk about agribusiness for example as the way out...it tells me that they've not thought about the issues much at all.

Well, criticizing someone for wanting to build airport is different from criticizing them for wanting to build roads.

The former is foolish in this particular case. The latter a good idea.

The only things required for industrialization are electricity (at reasonable prices) and good transportation to markets. The latter actually is not a competitive disadvantage...everybody has to deal with terrible Nigerian roads. Even goods from China must pass through bad Nigerian roads.

The disadvantage we have is lack of electricity. If/when that is solved, then there is opportunity to do light manufacturing.

And from there, the sky is the limit.

After all, we do have the advantage of cheaper labor costs than say Lagos.

Anyway, focusing on roads is good. Rail needs to be next. But above all, electricity must be #1.

If you don't make industrialization the first priority, you are doomed, essentially.

There is no other way to employ large numbers of people.

Agribusiness doesn't create enough jobs. So it isn't going to be very helpful.

Ekiti doesn't need to create its own electricity infrastructure...that is a task for the private sector.

Assuming that:
a) electricity is in place at prices not much more above that of competitors
b) transportation to the coast and within Nigeria is improved,

then the lower labor costs will give enough of an advantage, at least within the West Africa subsector.

It isn't hard to beat even China if (a) and (b) are in place, at least in certain sectors. Their costs are rapidly rising, mine would be rising less rapidly..

Anyway, agribusiness is a pretty poor answer for the issues at hand.

Agribusiness is not the way forward, if your goal is to have low unemployment.

Electricity and then industrialization are the ingredients necessary for that.

Chapters 1-4 of Dive Into Python are pretty worth it: http://getpython3.com/diveintopython3/

But I think beyond that, someone who is already familiar with another programming language is best off just starting to write code.

Akpabio...wonderful man

Skyscrapercity is such a wonderful website.

petaling: “Traditionally, it should be a thing of pride if the achievements of a succeeding leader supersede his predecessor’s. Awolowo would be celebrating in his grave the fame and positive image Obasanjo has brought the Yoruba nation. Saying no one can step into Awo’s shoes is tantamount to saying the progress of the Yoruba nation had been stalled since Awo relinquished power.

I agree with this point...

This is a farce because a leader like Obasanjo has ascended hills, scaled hurdles and worked tirelessly to make himself the most applauded and feted Nigerian leader in recent times. His contributions to the PDP enhanced the growth and popularity of the party beyond the African soil,” Ogundokun said.

...but OBJ is not the man who has exceeded Awolowo, in my opinion. Presumably there will be someone sooner or later, though.

[quote author=ekt_bear]The first is the death penalty; the second is the offering
compensation to the relatives of the dead victim, if the relatives accept
(“diya”). The trafficker opts for the second option and obtains an equivalent
of about Naira 3,500,000 (local currency, equivalent to some US $27,000).
The trafficker returns to Nigeria and informs the parents of the trafficked
child that the child died of natural causes. The trafficker pays the parents
about Naira 100,000 an equivalent (about US $775) as the wages of the
child while in Saudi Arabia.[/quote]How many children have you murdered for blood money, nagoma?

This is an abomination.

Was such a beautiful city.

Matplotlib is frikkin awesome.

They seem to have stolen borrowed the Matlab API.

Really cool..makes the transition easy.

Crayola owned nagoma pretty hard, lmao

[b]
A form of trafficking currently under investigation takes place in the
northern part of Nigeria and involves the luring of young children to
Saudi Arabia to be killed for blood money known as “diya”. The method is
quite simple: the trafficker, often female, takes a child trafficked to Saudi
Arabia to go shopping; when she spots an affluent Arab’s car, she pushes
the child in the path of the car to get run over and possibly killed. There
are two types of penalties for anyone who kills another human being in
Saudi Arabia. The first is the death penalty; the second is the offering
compensation to the relatives of the dead victim, if the relatives accept
(“diya”). The trafficker opts for the second option and obtains an equivalent
of about Naira 3,500,000 (local currency, equivalent to some US $27,000).
The trafficker returns to Nigeria and informs the parents of the trafficked
child that the child died of natural causes. The trafficker pays the parents
about Naira 100,000 an equivalent (about US $775) as the wages of the
child while in Saudi Arabia. Parents do not typically probe the trafficker’s
story, often accepting the death of the child as the will of Allah. Many
simply accept the supposed wages. There is little research on this form of
trafficking, but our interviews suggest that those recruited are women and
children from poor family backgrounds and rural communities.40
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0014/001478/147844e.pdf
[/b]

Wow. I did not know this.

List comprehensions are really sweet though. Definitely a nice feature.

Hehe

It is just really annoying...I dislike unnecessary extra typing.

I do have some minor annoyances with this language though, I must say.

I don't like how I write len(object) rather than object.length or something.

The former doesn't feel very object oriented

I also dislike that parenthesis are required for print() statements in python3.

Hmm. So The Nation stole this article from the LA Times, it appears...the author is a LA Times writer.

Lame..

Even members of the Hisbah Board have recently taken extra wives “to set a good example,” board official Nabahani Usman said. (The board sees it as an act of charity and kindness to take in an extra wife.)

lmfao

She left their four children with him, as is often the case. (“He treats them very well. So why should I worry myself about them?”) She has seen them once since, in 2005. She left, certain he’d miss her and her cooking, especially his favorite dish, spaghetti bolognese, made from a recipe she’d found in a magazine.

The author of this article has a flair for writing. I'm impressed.

The problem sharpened here after Kano state and 11 other predominantly Muslim states adopted sharia, or Islamic law, between 1999 and 2001, allowing men to divorce unilaterally simply by thrice stating “I divorce you,” an act that cannot be undone with a simple change of mind.

Lmao. Islam is a very man-friendly religion. Divorce this easy? The man doesn't lose half of his wealth in the divorce either, I take it?

She has no idea who her husband will be. But, like the practical character in a Jane Austen novel, she’s no romantic.
“I know love is something, but ...” she pauses wistfully. “Love doesn’t really last.”



Heh. This is heartwarming