₦airaland Forum

Welcome, Guest: RegisterLoginWith GoogleTrendingRecentNew

Stats: 3,326,277 members, 8,425,771 topics. Date: Saturday, 13 June 2026 at 04:35 AM

Toggle theme

Ekubear1's Posts

Nairaland ForumEkubear1's ProfileEkubear1's Posts

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 (of 100 pages)

PoliticsRe: Fashola Hands Over Mushin (17th) Skills Acquisition And Vocational Centre (pics) by ekubear1: 9:07am On Feb 17, 2011
seanet02:
We knew you will always deliver, carry on my governor. Can you please lets take you in OGUN at least on Part time because our governance is in Abeyance
grin
PoliticsRe: Rascals In Govt: Jonathan A Drunk Fisherman -tinubu ! by ekubear1: 8:25am On Feb 17, 2011
Who cares? Oil is no excuse to act like a dumbass.

Abeg, drunk fisherman need to sit down
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 8:07am On Feb 17, 2011
^-- Lol, right in the middle of reading it. Was just about to post the following image, Table 1:

http://i51.tinypic.com/ie0ccj.png

Breaks down the results of the various surveys over time.

Prof Sam Aluko seems to have more faith in the 1950-1953 total pop #s than the 1963 #s.

One of these other guys made a case for the 1950-1953 result undercounting, or something, though (will dig up the criticism in a bit.)

Thing is, if you use the 1963 # of 55.66 million and the 2006 # of ~140 million, you get an annual growth rate of 2.168%. Which seems extremely low for a 3rd world country like Nigeria over that period of time. 2.5% minimum is the smallest I'd guess over that time period. So Aluko's case for the 1963 #s being grossly inflated seems solid (unless we either believe that Nigeria's pop was more than 140 million as of 2006, or the country had a very small growth rate. I don't believe either of these things personally.)

On the other hand, if you use the 1950-1953 # of 30.42 million, and assume 30.42 mil in 1953, then you get a growth rate of 2.92%. Which seems pretty reasonable overall for Nigeria.

This is actually getting sort of fun, lol.
PoliticsRe: Fashola Rips Goodluck To Shreds! by ekubear1: 7:27am On Feb 17, 2011
^-- Good thing you don't need it, since last thing I want to do is offer it.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 6:29am On Feb 17, 2011
Since the previous censuses in Nigeria had been marred by cases of inflated figures, as early as 1972, arrangements for another population census in 1973
became finalized. The figures though admitted as the most thorough head count anywhere in the world were greeted by a number of protests. Chief Awolowo became the first national politician to publicly reject the 1973 census when he claimed that the figures were absolutely unreliable. The 1973 census became the ‘last straw’ factor that led to the demise of Gowon’s administration. Gowon’s successor, General Murtala Muhammed declined to use the controversial 1973 population census. Instead, the 1963 population census continued to be used. The indignation over the 1973 population census had not been totally erased from the political board of Nigeria before the Babangida administration conducted the 1991 population census. This was contentious and
acrimonious. It became the most controversial and maligned exercise (Salaudeen, 2004). The figures showed that the population of the northern states had surged by 62% from 1963 figures to 47 million, the East by 50% to 18 million the West rose by 10% over a period of 30 years.
Falsification of population census data in a heterogeneous Nigerian state: The fourth republic example, J. Adele Bamgbose

Lol, damn. 10% population growth in the old Western region over the course of 30 years? Na wa o. This Babangida fella. . . or were somehow the Western Region #s dramatically inflated in 1963? I'm puzzled.
PoliticsRe: Why Couldnt Acn Field In An Ibo Candidate,wayo People by ekubear1: 5:36am On Feb 17, 2011
Why should the ACN field an Igbo candidate?
PoliticsRe: f by ekubear1: 5:09am On Feb 17, 2011
Becomrichn:
tinubu, Becomerichn, eku_bear  and they are working with nuhu ribadu to sell yoruba people into slavery. tinubu is a traitor to the yoruba people.
tinubu betray yoruba people for government contract.
Fixed.

Up slavery!
PoliticsRe: Opposition Parties Have Failed Nigerians – Nplf ! by ekubear1: 5:06am On Feb 17, 2011
And who are these toothless dogs to call out any of the opposition parties?

They need to look in the mirror if they are looking for failure.
PoliticsRe: Senator Smart Adeyemi Opposes Bill Allocating N2.2bn For Former Heads Of State by ekubear1: 5:05am On Feb 17, 2011
Upkeep? Fvck em. What sort of upkeep do they need?
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 4:28am On Feb 17, 2011
fstranger3:
^^^

What are you basing your 3% population growth on?

Isnt 1.5% growth a better estimate?

We are long far from the years when people give birth like rats
Benin Republic our neighbor is at 3% still today (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate). Niger our northern neighbor is at 3.49%. Cameroon is at 2%. Yet Yorubaland specifically and Nigeria in general is at 1.5%?  undecided

Anyway, I dunno what the growth rate should be; maybe 3% is too high annualized over the past 47 years. But 2% is too low, and certainly 1.5% is too low.

And I concede that my 4% figure was way too high.
and in terms of population migration to the SW, people come and go. Some come and from there travel out, some are there temporarily for jobs and more a lot of people actually do go back to their state of origin.
The net flow into Yorubaland is positive, though.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 4:07am On Feb 17, 2011
Kilode?!:
STATES   '63 in Mil     '73 in Mil          %change
West                  9,488         8,920            -0.62

Lagos                1,444          2,470              5.4
Lol. Even at 3% annualized population growth per year (conservative considering natural pop growth and immigration to the SW from all over Nigeria and West Africa), we should get

octave:13> (9488+1444)*1.03**47
ans =  4.3858e+04

44 million people in the SW region. Yet the 2006 census claimed 27.7 million?  undecided And I could easily imagine 4% population growth over that time period.

Hrm, before I thought it was Igboland whose population was being dramatically undercounted, but now I am starting to wonder. . .
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 4:01am On Feb 17, 2011
^-- Cool! Yeah I'm still in the office so have JSTOR access.

I'll download and read that one, as well as any others you might suggest.

I came across this one: http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/content/87/349/553.full.pdf
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 3:47am On Feb 17, 2011
^-- Which song is that? I'll youtube it.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 3:42am On Feb 17, 2011
@asha80: For sure, Igboland (after Lagos and on par with Akwa Ibom) is one of the more densely populated regions in Nigeria.

However, after seeing this inflation in Kano, I sort of thought there would be more #s in Anambra, Imo and the rest of the SE. My (wild guess) was that perhaps the total figure (140 million in the country as of 2006) was correct, but that they just shifted population from the SE to the North.

But if the population of the SE zone isn't that under-inflated, maybe Nigeria is just far less populated than we think. Or did they just slice a little bit of population from each region of the south and add it to the north?

I'm kind of confused a bit now.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 3:00am On Feb 17, 2011
Also, what are your thoughts about the population of the 5 Igbo states? Understated, overstated?

Either Nigeria is far less populated than commonly believed, or some states are being dramatically underestimated population wise.

I sort of lean towards the latter, but sort of want more information.

I found the 1991 census data, btw: http://www.nigerianmuse.com/projects/ElectoralReformProject/?u=Nigeria_Census_1991.html
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 2:54am On Feb 17, 2011
Asha 80: Thanks. I'll look at that too. Maybe also see if there is anyone I can email to understand the UN's methodology a bit better.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 2:48am On Feb 17, 2011
UN ranked Ibadan around 1.4 million as of 1985. I'd be surprised if it didn't grow at all in 25 years. . .

I imagine that Lagos has sucked away a lot of manpower out of the SW, but natural population growth and those who choose to move to Ibadan rather than Lagos would also contribute to growth.

But I sort of understand the sentiment behind your statement. All these great empires of the past (Benin, Sokoto Emirate, Kanem-Borno Empire), somehow they seem to have been outbred by Yoruba and especially Igbo.
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 2:03am On Feb 17, 2011
Hrm. Will dig into this data a bit more later tonight.

Does anyone have previous census data broken down by zone or region? Or what is a good place to find this sort of data?
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 1:22am On Feb 17, 2011
Depends on what you think "large" is.

If one accepts the Kano Metro #s, revises the Kano North and Kano South densities to 100/square km (probably a factor of two or three too high), you get:
octave:3> (8332+11554)*100+2826307
ans =  4814907

A pop of 4.81 million, as compared to the listed figure for 2006 of 9.4 million.

And 100/square km is being very generous. . . yet the pop shrinks by nearly 50%.

It would be interesting to do this for states Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, etc. . . I wonder how much they are inflating by.

Anyway, that is why I'm not convinced that the population of the north is "large."
PoliticsRe: Maps Of Oil Fields In Nigeria by ekubear1: 12:11am On Feb 17, 2011
Niger Delta has been blessed richly. May want to superimpose state boundaries on one of those maps, if your paint/gimp/photoshop/etc skills are good.
PoliticsRe: Y by ekubear1: 12:07am On Feb 17, 2011
So. . . why is he a Yoruba hater?
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 11:37pm On Feb 16, 2011
PhysicsRND:
I think the Kano state figures are made up, though. But at the same time I just don't believe population density can be used for any convincing arguments for the whole country.
Well is sort of can. There is no reason to believe that the rural North has 5 or 10X the population density of the rural South. We'd then need to understand why the rural parts of the North are amongst the most densely populated "rural" regions of the world. . . such as Northern Kano State being as densely populated as Rhode Island, and not too far off from New Jersey. . .
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 11:33pm On Feb 16, 2011
PhysicsRND:
1. I've seen them make that assertion multiple times on this board, and have wouldn't be surprised if that's how they would react in real life to the question of the population data.
3. I really don't have a clue about the big cities. And to make matters worse, some cities are spread out over a larger area than others, resulting in dense but geographically smaller cities having the illusion of being more populated than spread out cities.
1. Well, they can make that assertion. But if you are claiming a population density of 400 + per square km for your rural region, then at that point I should be able to zoom in on google earth and see it. Or physically go to this 50 square km region you claim has a density of 400, and see something that suggests 20,000 people (which is a LOT, if you think about how small 50 square km is.)
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 11:15pm On Feb 16, 2011
PhysicsRND:
1) Proof? The Northerners are always claiming most people in those populated states up north are not in the metropolises, but in the rural LGs. I think they make up this claim to account for the figures because they assume the figures are correct, but I have no way to say that they are really lying. The other thing to consider here is that you said population densities, but you have to consider the size of states and LGs. The population density of the rural north could actually be low and still give them a higher population for each LG than the rural southeast because the rural southeast is still a much smaller area. So whether you go urban or rural, I think the population densities are still not going to be uniform across Nigeria.
2) I guess. Why not?
3) No. There's no way to know. What's the population of Kano city (not state)? What's the population of Lagos?
1) Well, it would seem a very bold assertion on the part of the northerners if they are claming their rural areas are more densely populated than southern ones. However, I'm even willing to spot them this advantage, even by a factor of two (giving them twice the rural density of the south.)

I'm not willing to give them a factor of 5, 10, or 20 though, as this Kano data seems to indicate.
2) OK.
3) Yeah, a bit tough.
[list]
[*] Nigerian FG says that Kano Metro pop as of 2006 was roughly 2.8 mil. UN figures from 2010 aren't too far off from that, if I'm reading the data correctly. [*] Otoh, official Lagos State #s are 8 mil, UN #s are like 10 mil+. Quite a substantial difference.
[*] Ibadan, official # is 1.4 millionish, the UN # is 2.8 mil. Hell, UN seems to believe that Ibadan reached 1.4 million back in 1985. . .
[/list]

I'm not sure how to handle this issue.
PoliticsRe: Brace Up For The Next Possible Oil Shock by ekubear1: 10:56pm On Feb 16, 2011
I don't see oil going down to 50 anytime in the near future, unless the economy of China and India fall apart. Demand has just increased dramatically over the years.
PoliticsRe: d by ekubear1: 10:33pm On Feb 16, 2011
EzeUche_:
It looks 50/50 to me. Not including the red dots representing offshore oil platforms. The Warri area and Port Harcourt area have by far the largest number of dots. Followed by Owerri, which is actually surprising. I do need a demarcation of Imo and Bayelsa State. However, keep in mind that Bayelsa also have traditional Igbo communities as well, which are mixed with Ijaw communities. President Jonathan comes from such an area.
Didn't know that. Do they speak Igbo in Otueke (GEJ's hometown)?
PoliticsRe: d by ekubear1: 10:26pm On Feb 16, 2011
^-- Most of those red dots are outside of Igboland, right? Do we agree on that?
PoliticsRe: d by ekubear1: 10:20pm On Feb 16, 2011
^--- Seems like the lion's share is outside of Igboland, yes?

If so. . . not sure what the argument is for why you are needed.

BTW, I don't necessarily think the SW would suffer too much income-wise sans oil derivations. Though I don't have enough data to answer that question one way or another.
PoliticsRe: d by ekubear1: 10:12pm On Feb 16, 2011
EzeUche_:
Not true. I think I shall refresh your memory about the boundaries of Igboland, since many people do not know where Igboland begins or ends. As you can see, Igboland is a huge part of Delta, Rivers and parts of Bayelsa state.
Hrm. If you could superimpose oil-fields onto that map as well, that'd sort of be useful. I was under the impression that most of the in the ND, outside of Igboland and mostly in "Ijawland."

Let's assume temporarily that the border you posted above is correct. How many barrels of oil per day does that territory produce?
PoliticsRe: ACN-Ribadu/Ngige, How Feasible? by ekubear1: 10:06pm On Feb 16, 2011
Hrm.

So if we believe the following:
1) Rural population densities are roughly uniform across Nigeria, say within a factor of 2
2) Total Population of Nigeria as of 2006 was correctly reported (150 million or so, iirc)
3) Population of major cities is mostly accurate

Then it shouldn't be hard to come up with a good estimate of the true population figures for each state.

Now, my question for ya'll is, how reasonable are the above assumptions?
PoliticsRe: d by ekubear1: 10:01pm On Feb 16, 2011
hollandis:
@becomerich
All is said was yorubas will be hungry without the igbos and south-south,there will be poverty in their land,hence they have proposed to stick to the oil producing peeps ,the annoying thing is their tribalistic nonsense,you have nothing,yet u r tribalistic ARRANT NONSENSE
Me personally, I don't think we need Igbos at all. One can make a (good) argument for Delta, Bayelsa, and Rivers. But Igboland? Unnecessary.
PoliticsRe: Free Egg, Fruit Juice/glass Of Fresh Milk To Each Child In Schl By 2014- Ribadu by ekubear1: 9:45pm On Feb 16, 2011
Actually a great idea. Expensive though. . . who pays for it?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 (of 100 pages)