Ekubear1's Posts
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seanet02: ![]() |
Who cares? Oil is no excuse to act like a dumbass. Abeg, drunk fisherman need to sit down |
^-- Lol, right in the middle of reading it. Was just about to post the following image, Table 1: http://i51.tinypic.com/ie0ccj.png Breaks down the results of the various surveys over time. Prof Sam Aluko seems to have more faith in the 1950-1953 total pop #s than the 1963 #s. One of these other guys made a case for the 1950-1953 result undercounting, or something, though (will dig up the criticism in a bit.) Thing is, if you use the 1963 # of 55.66 million and the 2006 # of ~140 million, you get an annual growth rate of 2.168%. Which seems extremely low for a 3rd world country like Nigeria over that period of time. 2.5% minimum is the smallest I'd guess over that time period. So Aluko's case for the 1963 #s being grossly inflated seems solid (unless we either believe that Nigeria's pop was more than 140 million as of 2006, or the country had a very small growth rate. I don't believe either of these things personally.) On the other hand, if you use the 1950-1953 # of 30.42 million, and assume 30.42 mil in 1953, then you get a growth rate of 2.92%. Which seems pretty reasonable overall for Nigeria. This is actually getting sort of fun, lol. |
^-- Good thing you don't need it, since last thing I want to do is offer it. |
Since the previous censuses in Nigeria had been marred by cases of inflated figures, as early as 1972, arrangements for another population census in 1973Falsification of population census data in a heterogeneous Nigerian state: The fourth republic example, J. Adele Bamgbose Lol, damn. 10% population growth in the old Western region over the course of 30 years? Na wa o. This Babangida fella. . . or were somehow the Western Region #s dramatically inflated in 1963? I'm puzzled. |
Why should the ACN field an Igbo candidate? |
Becomrichn:Fixed. Up slavery! |
And who are these toothless dogs to call out any of the opposition parties? They need to look in the mirror if they are looking for failure. |
Upkeep? Fvck em. What sort of upkeep do they need? |
fstranger3:Benin Republic our neighbor is at 3% still today (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate). Niger our northern neighbor is at 3.49%. Cameroon is at 2%. Yet Yorubaland specifically and Nigeria in general is at 1.5%? ![]() Anyway, I dunno what the growth rate should be; maybe 3% is too high annualized over the past 47 years. But 2% is too low, and certainly 1.5% is too low. And I concede that my 4% figure was way too high. and in terms of population migration to the SW, people come and go. Some come and from there travel out, some are there temporarily for jobs and more a lot of people actually do go back to their state of origin.The net flow into Yorubaland is positive, though. |
Kilode?!:Lol. Even at 3% annualized population growth per year (conservative considering natural pop growth and immigration to the SW from all over Nigeria and West Africa), we should get octave:13> (9488+1444)*1.03**47 ans = 4.3858e+04 44 million people in the SW region. Yet the 2006 census claimed 27.7 million? And I could easily imagine 4% population growth over that time period.Hrm, before I thought it was Igboland whose population was being dramatically undercounted, but now I am starting to wonder. . . |
^-- Cool! Yeah I'm still in the office so have JSTOR access. I'll download and read that one, as well as any others you might suggest. I came across this one: http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/content/87/349/553.full.pdf |
^-- Which song is that? I'll youtube it. |
@asha80: For sure, Igboland (after Lagos and on par with Akwa Ibom) is one of the more densely populated regions in Nigeria. However, after seeing this inflation in Kano, I sort of thought there would be more #s in Anambra, Imo and the rest of the SE. My (wild guess) was that perhaps the total figure (140 million in the country as of 2006) was correct, but that they just shifted population from the SE to the North. But if the population of the SE zone isn't that under-inflated, maybe Nigeria is just far less populated than we think. Or did they just slice a little bit of population from each region of the south and add it to the north? I'm kind of confused a bit now. |
Also, what are your thoughts about the population of the 5 Igbo states? Understated, overstated? Either Nigeria is far less populated than commonly believed, or some states are being dramatically underestimated population wise. I sort of lean towards the latter, but sort of want more information. I found the 1991 census data, btw: http://www.nigerianmuse.com/projects/ElectoralReformProject/?u=Nigeria_Census_1991.html |
Asha 80: Thanks. I'll look at that too. Maybe also see if there is anyone I can email to understand the UN's methodology a bit better. |
UN ranked Ibadan around 1.4 million as of 1985. I'd be surprised if it didn't grow at all in 25 years. . . I imagine that Lagos has sucked away a lot of manpower out of the SW, but natural population growth and those who choose to move to Ibadan rather than Lagos would also contribute to growth. But I sort of understand the sentiment behind your statement. All these great empires of the past (Benin, Sokoto Emirate, Kanem-Borno Empire), somehow they seem to have been outbred by Yoruba and especially Igbo. |
Hrm. Will dig into this data a bit more later tonight. Does anyone have previous census data broken down by zone or region? Or what is a good place to find this sort of data? |
Depends on what you think "large" is. If one accepts the Kano Metro #s, revises the Kano North and Kano South densities to 100/square km (probably a factor of two or three too high), you get: octave:3> (8332+11554)*100+2826307 ans = 4814907 A pop of 4.81 million, as compared to the listed figure for 2006 of 9.4 million. And 100/square km is being very generous. . . yet the pop shrinks by nearly 50%. It would be interesting to do this for states Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, etc. . . I wonder how much they are inflating by. Anyway, that is why I'm not convinced that the population of the north is "large." |
Niger Delta has been blessed richly. May want to superimpose state boundaries on one of those maps, if your paint/gimp/photoshop/etc skills are good. |
So. . . why is he a Yoruba hater? |
PhysicsRND:Well is sort of can. There is no reason to believe that the rural North has 5 or 10X the population density of the rural South. We'd then need to understand why the rural parts of the North are amongst the most densely populated "rural" regions of the world. . . such as Northern Kano State being as densely populated as Rhode Island, and not too far off from New Jersey. . . |
PhysicsRND:1. Well, they can make that assertion. But if you are claiming a population density of 400 + per square km for your rural region, then at that point I should be able to zoom in on google earth and see it. Or physically go to this 50 square km region you claim has a density of 400, and see something that suggests 20,000 people (which is a LOT, if you think about how small 50 square km is.) |
PhysicsRND:1) Well, it would seem a very bold assertion on the part of the northerners if they are claming their rural areas are more densely populated than southern ones. However, I'm even willing to spot them this advantage, even by a factor of two (giving them twice the rural density of the south.) I'm not willing to give them a factor of 5, 10, or 20 though, as this Kano data seems to indicate. 2) OK. 3) Yeah, a bit tough. [list] [*] Nigerian FG says that Kano Metro pop as of 2006 was roughly 2.8 mil. UN figures from 2010 aren't too far off from that, if I'm reading the data correctly. [*] Otoh, official Lagos State #s are 8 mil, UN #s are like 10 mil+. Quite a substantial difference. [*] Ibadan, official # is 1.4 millionish, the UN # is 2.8 mil. Hell, UN seems to believe that Ibadan reached 1.4 million back in 1985. . . [/list] I'm not sure how to handle this issue. |
I don't see oil going down to 50 anytime in the near future, unless the economy of China and India fall apart. Demand has just increased dramatically over the years. |
EzeUche_:Didn't know that. Do they speak Igbo in Otueke (GEJ's hometown)? |
^-- Most of those red dots are outside of Igboland, right? Do we agree on that? |
^--- Seems like the lion's share is outside of Igboland, yes? If so. . . not sure what the argument is for why you are needed. BTW, I don't necessarily think the SW would suffer too much income-wise sans oil derivations. Though I don't have enough data to answer that question one way or another. |
EzeUche_:Hrm. If you could superimpose oil-fields onto that map as well, that'd sort of be useful. I was under the impression that most of the in the ND, outside of Igboland and mostly in "Ijawland." Let's assume temporarily that the border you posted above is correct. How many barrels of oil per day does that territory produce? |
Hrm. So if we believe the following: 1) Rural population densities are roughly uniform across Nigeria, say within a factor of 2 2) Total Population of Nigeria as of 2006 was correctly reported (150 million or so, iirc) 3) Population of major cities is mostly accurate Then it shouldn't be hard to come up with a good estimate of the true population figures for each state. Now, my question for ya'll is, how reasonable are the above assumptions? |
hollandis:Me personally, I don't think we need Igbos at all. One can make a (good) argument for Delta, Bayelsa, and Rivers. But Igboland? Unnecessary. |
Actually a great idea. Expensive though. . . who pays for it? |
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