₦airaland Forum

ckenneths:
I sometimes refuse to analyse stocks properly, not because am not am engineer (hehehe) but because too much analyses will bring about a disease in investing called analysis-paralisis!
The syptoms of the disease includes forgetting vital facts about a stock, being too scared to buy any stock, forgetting to take your bath before going to bed.Note also that am not a medical doctor, but I can diagnose most investment diseases. (Laughs)

@ ckenneths

What you just wrote so is one of the most powerfull truths relating to NSE.Its such a different place with its own peculiarities.
My stockbroker told me this long time ago and i found this to be true with time.
Over dependence on charts/analysis softwares etc brings about fright.
I visualise the NSE like its a human being (It has feelings).

pumping777:
Ha, Julius Berger. Anyone noticed how the stock silently made millions for people in the last 4 months?

This is what I meant by missing the bus if you are waiting for a stock price to fall too low and it refuses to get there. I bid for the stock around September for N54. My broker did not get and I refused to up my bid even though it was just about N55.

It was N90 last month. If I still bought at N60, I would still have made 50%.  

My dear brother pumping,na lagos state govt. get julius berger shares oh.Its hardly available.
Try not to focus on these illiquid stocks.Don't you see they always have the highest YTD % change.
20,000 can make JB or Costain jump 5% tomorrow.You'll never get to buy.
Anybody on this thread can make Chellarams move 5% tomorrow tomorrow.
If you were doing serious margin trading,you'll understand the power of volume.

Talktrue:
@fatherOF2
when u buy finish 2moro tell us wetin u buy because I "Thomas" wan take my eyes see the rally.

If you bring the money, RALLY must come.

yodiyokun:
Baba Ibeji - did you just ask for a soft loan of N285M Oh Mi God

Yes MA,  Canadian dollars is acceptable,just send me the Western Union Password.

O men na tomorrow me dey buy oh.I clearly see some sallah selling today.
Opportunities just dey pop up.
Who get spare N285 million, i go pay am back with 5% interest on Feb 22nd.

pumping777:
The bears don vex for this market o. Re-positioning openings are now in the horizon

Yes o,plenty.

ololufemi:
Big problem though is that, many prospects now but few cash

My advice to you in 08' , just learn how to hold cash.When you get your margin,sell and hold.Opportunities pop up weekly.

ololufemi:
@ All,

News from the grapevine

Dangote flour may be listed first quarter next year, preferably february and heard it was highly oversubscribed and may gather a strong rally too.

Any views on this


Still a strong believer that UBA will rally to about 65 next year first quarter.

Big problem though is that, many prospects now but few cash

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH,
There is never enough cash my brother.Even when you get to N1bn you will still need cash because then,you'll divide your money by N121 and you'll be aiming for $1bn.Na so.

ckenneths:
I am still watching UBA. Does anyone in the house have reasons to think this stock will rally in a two month time frame?
The end of year is gone and the profitability trend is on the up scale. If we wait for the results to be announced, peharps you will see it to buy at N65-N70 range.

Two of the most important results you learn to look out for is the 3months result and the 9months results for many blue chip companies.
The 3months results helps to make start projections for the full year projections for that stock and hence a new price level for it is set.
The 9months tends to help you confirm if all has been well for most of the year and projections are in line.
Right now i'm taking positions for their Q1 08' which should be due late jan/early feb 08'.

I can see more short termers coming on board soon. RSI will just do the trick.
You'll learn to buy today and sell in two/three weeks(Thursday/friday in the NSE case).
Just ensure discipline in taking out your two/three week profit which ranges between 20-25%.

Some guys are getting warmer to cracking one of NSE's code's i've told you about.
Crack that code and you'll be making money every month.


Go on RSI. grabdaloot give dem more.

PEACE everybody PEACE

@Blest
 Be happy its ok.
@jehosaphat
 Be happy too.we're at peace.

no_shaking:
Breaking News!!! Just a brief diversion!!

James Ibori has just been arrested by EFCC - finally o!

Finally thankGod finally.Hope its true.Send me the link.
But if EFCC starts to ask for the money and how he laundered it out of the country.The bank that shall be mentioned will be oceanic.
That's his bank.I understand it caused a massive run of withdrawals some two months ago at oceanic branches in delta/Edo state.But cbn gov. had to make a local broadcast that all was well with oceanic.Same thing happened to Allstates during Alamiesegha.

easimoni:
I knew there was something CORRECT about you! I visited last in 2003. Gisted with Gimba and Dr Ajayi.

Per Insurance, no doubt in my mind at least 5 of them will break 10 sometime next year.

BTW, Heroes ended the 2007 fall season. A Little disappointing but Sylar got his powers back so the 08 season should pick up some.

Its interesting, Most of us here are engineers.How come?.

no_shaking:
Men! your mouth too sweet o! Abi u be political _financial sycophant? Anyway, nice one my brotha, appreciate your efforts though!

@FatherOF2

Could you please provide info re your VSAT installations, the service provider etc. Looking at installing one myself. Thanks, Baba ke! _{a la ololufemi} we dey your side o!, infact we dey bow now now, no shaking fatha, na your boys wey hunger wan kill. Ha aa! baba ke! Father of eferi bodi, iya won! Go on sun u! your enemies go blow - gbosa gbosa gbosa!!!

Sir no_shaking.As i just see my nname ffor yourr ppost. i just dey shake.You no see my writing.
But make you leave ololufemi alone oh.We appreciate those regular and insightfull company information posted regularly.
Service Provider :  MWEB VSAT in V/I.
Contact:  LUCY
Number: 012701333 and 012701666.
Ask for LUCY.

easimoni:
LOL!! I'm still laughing. We talked about building technical analysis tools/knowledge to see if it would be useful on the NSE. I did some Excel based analysis/programming thanks to data supplied by Wanaj0 and a colleague. If you would like to know what RSI, OBV, MACD, SMAs blah, blah, blah mean, read the article below.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/

Since no one has come up with a useful software, I've built my own. Still a work-in-progress.

I always suspect you be wan kind software genius added to money genius.When i click your profile the other day,i see picture of one handsome cartoon guy with abolo carrying book for the TWO HAND.For my mind i say this one go know book well well.And see the chart wen e make.Welldone man.

easimoni:
This is some serious comic relief!! Yarn now, make I fire the thing! too much cash for pocket.

That na the thing na.If you alone just fire am,e no go gree drop .The thing go just defy e normal yearly cycle.

ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

Evening baba and hope you are great.

Got this hunch that Access result may be cooking somewhere and this might bring a rally on the stock if it outperforms expectations.

The issue of oversubscription and returned money should also be considered.

Otherstocks on my radar for now are Diamond, IBTC (in about 3 months time due to Stanbic take-over- better to ait for it to drop a little points),

Any idea from the guru himself.

Its well appreciated.

Great Ololufemi
I'm fine men.You're doing a nice one on this thread.We owe you a lot with the information you keep giving us.
Diamond is surely on the list.I've already taken position there.I've been waiting for access.I got it at less than N18.00.I know interim results are overdue.
IBTC has a march year end.Sometime in late january is a good time for me(9 months result).
Right now my radar is full.This is positioning time.I've seen one or two who have been making consistent gradual drops based on a Thursday-friday evaluation and over a two week period.This week and next are good to position.Sallah holiday/Christmas will provide opportunities.
I'm eyeing one building material company(i no wan mention e name)(i wan make e still drop).I want to offload it by february next year and enter GTB.
Also i'm eyeing Vitafoam,i want to offlaod that one sometime in feb and go for R.T. Briscoe attack.
One conglomerate starting with "un" is also on my firing line.I wan use my December salary take position for that one.
I'm now available at night now,just finished my Vsat installation in my residence.

shigidi:
oga easimoni, me sef i no know.
i have a little fcmb which i will sell if it hits 24 naira or even 23 naira. my eye is looking at dangote sugar or unic insurance, that stock still looks good, forward pe of 17 right now. why don't you go for that below 3.35, im sure you will get. as for banks, you picked up access so you no get wahala. im thinking strongly about gtb.
please holla with any suggestions.

Based on next years calender, I'll suggest you collect your GTB's between the 29th of Jan 08' and Feb 4th. Speculators tend to depress the price then just before the beginning of the year end month.

easimoni:
9 month results in the offing? The increase in PAT over the 2nd half of 2006 was dramatic! Could be interesting. Nothing on the Tech Charts to suggest it was oversold. Major volumes (esp on +ve days) have been moved since mid-Nov. Signs of an institutional investor buying?

_{And yes, I've been studying Tech Analysis. See chart below}

Men this your chart strong oh.I no understand one TIN for am.

kpineo:
@ Father of 2
what is the proposed exit on Zenith, am considering selling NASCON but the loss position is too high to absorb right now. am believing when year end results are released i should be able to get some profit and move on. Your thoughts

Zenith knew exactly what it was doing when it switched OFF the light on its stock when NSE placed it on TS immediately after announcing Q1 08'.
It had already gained 5% before TS.Q1 result would drum up support for the offer.Now going back one step before Q1 result was announced,the price it hovered around was N44, so my exit price would be:

  N44 + (N44 * 25%) == N55

Besides the stock needs to gain some ground before the 1 for 4 bonus is given and causes dilution later.
Also its arch rival UBA may be releasing its Q1 08' and when its rival starts to gain,some people just like to see it follow.
That's my take.

ololufemi:
FCMB still on TS and controlling strong bids.

We are still waiting for them to lift it oh make we get our money oh.

We go collect our money. My laser beam has been on it since the tuesday just after offer closed when 22 deals had a volume of 348million units and N6.6bn.That's why i bought N2.5m before any announcement here. Henceforth na to buy before announcing on this thread otherwise my current PHB experience no good.Everybody don rush PHB.I've had to settle for Zenith bank now on the floor.Still getting PHB small small sha.

kpineo:
@ Father of 2 / Olufemi

I wonder how come you only got 1K units of PHB on thursday. My broker was able to get me 115K units on the same day.
Am finally out of MBenefit without a profit nor Loss after a horrible 5 month ordeal.
Father of 2 what is the target exit for this PHB, na your strategy i wan try use oh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My target exit price for PHB is N32/N33.
I agree with pumping on how you got your PHB.Hold am well before i come for it.

wanaj0:
You no serious!!!!!!

You have this impression that I am against your style. That is not true.

Nice to know this.
I believe we pursue same goals with different strategies all borne out of experience.

wanaj0:
If you are not in by end jan. 2008 you will be palying catch up. By February, Q3 result of most of the banks will be out, March/April full year result of most of the manufacturing companies with Dec as end year will be out. Normally, most gains are made in the first half of the year. So Dec/January is the time to enter.

200% in agreement on this post ONLY
Bold print in focus.

ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

I will keep trying oh.

Do you have any other stocks for the shortest term if possible so that I wont miss anything.

You know sey my wisdom never reach your level yet. I dey humble oh.

Will get to you tomorrow.Let the bears devour some stocks.
I mentioned some banks earlier.
December has always been a time to take position.
Christmas,Sallah and early January is School fees time again.
Pickings will come soonest.
But so far for non banking,Vitafoam is on my radar. I need a drop below N8.00 to enter.
Unilever is also on target.I don't think the market has reacted to that 9month result.
Its making a gradual consistent drop so far for me.I'll study a few things tonite.

ololufemi:
@ All,

Tried to get PHB today (30,000 units) but they could only get 1000.

Makes me angry.

I encountered this problem early last week. I suspect the silent readers have these shares and have stopped all sell orders prior to TS.

ololufemi:
@ All,

Tried to get PHB today (30,000 units) but they could only get 1000.

Makes me angry.

Just keep trying to get it daily while you can through out the offer.Some will sell.Two weeks to TS expiration may not suffice any longer.
Wisdom is creeping in daily.

Ah just catching up again.
@ Pumping
Thanks for your Jim Ovia Zenith analysis.Good one.
Besides they say " NATURE ABHORS VACUUM".
@ Pumping
On your Oando i'm happy you're getting the drift quick time.
I HOPE THEY PAID YOU IN DOLLARS FOR THAT 40% PROFIT.
I believe your chart/trend captured that for you.WELLDONE
Unfortunately some don't know when to sell.
@ ololufemi
I give you hand .You're SMART.Very fast.

Closed for the DAY.
Goodnite.

osazeet:
Olufumi
















Olufumi and father of 2, please can u both tell me the prospect of FIDELITY BANK?

Not sure of this fidelity.They announced results the other day.No bonus,nothing.So no stored pressure.
Just hold and see.This December is 6months so wait for half year results early next year.

SGN:
@FatherOF2

Given that UBA has announced their full year result, and has just delcared dividend, what do you think can drive the price up in the short term? The price is looking not too bad, but what do you yhink can influence and upward movement in ther short term.

Tomorrow looks attractive for UBA,if it falls an additional 2.5%.That will make it a 15% drop since its peak a week ago.A 15% beating usually steers up some interest in a stock.
On why the stock could rise again===The actual collection of the dividend matters to some people.Some just make a last minute dash to ensure their name appears on the register to collect the dividend.You're trying to take advantage of that last minute dash.
But 1st quarter result will be due early next year too.