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FatherOF2's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 2:38pm On Nov 30, 2007
MyPeace:
@fatherof2

Thx alot, i count on you.
I have to watch (got some 400,000 at 2.82)
Its your heart (NO BP)
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 2:13pm On Nov 30, 2007
wanaj0:
Dry bones shall rise again.

Hope people will not develop high BP with worries about daily flunctuations. Focus on the long term
@ Mypeace
Be patient my dear,be patient.I'm watching for you.
ON WATCH MODE NOW.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:06pm On Nov 29, 2007
@Wanajo,

  You see  I commend your efforts. Plaudable and Plausable they're.
But its obvious we can't walk on the same road.We share very different ideals.
From all your claims,you're obviously very good at what you do.Nuff respect for that.
But try not critisize a concept you don't understand.
You're obviously a good LONG TERMER.
But you can NEVER change a very successfull SHORT TERM TRADER.

PEACE OH, lets go back to the nse. cool cool
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 4:40pm On Nov 29, 2007
wanaj0:
My brother, nothing to worry about!!! This is a faceless forum to start with. Anyone that gets angry over the internet need to get his head examined. Nothing said here take or remove from my person. So no hard feelings.

i got more punches during the Access bank PO when someone wrote a damning report on Access Bank. Though I like objectivity, in a faceless forum, you will not always get it.

I like fatherof2's contribution. It is a comic relief. But for a marathon race, I am not that bothered about what is happening at the 100m point.
Still so amusing.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 3:41pm On Nov 29, 2007
wanaj0:
So, seen the good, the bad and the ugly!!!!
Hmmmmmmm,
THE ONE AND ONLY EXPERIENCED GUY.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 2:39pm On Nov 29, 2007
ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

Thanks,

I am sure you know that this 25% nd 30% profiteering thing is very common with people who buy large amounts of stocks especially with borrowed funds in Nigeria here.

They could gain 25% twice or thrice within the space of a few months and this tends to help them pay off those loan facilities quickly.

Na them dey cause these profit taking for market oh.

I have a question for you and my big bros no vex

How did you know Intercontinental was going to drop above 4% ie 4.24% because you sold yours yesterday.

Thanks and I'm still sticking to the game plan. Waiting for those low levels before I rally in

Thanks bro and I am grateful
I guess you're already beginning to know were this comes from.
Yes i know they're and a lot of time has been spent researching and monitoring.
If everybody keeps buying,buying,buying,it'll never go down.
There's at least N600bn of borrowed money in the NSE and those who know how to manage it are a select group.
They have a regular,peculiar and for me now predictable pattern which i have studied over some years now.
Intercontinental reached a new 52week high yesterday and i suspected the high could either end yesterday or Today so i sold yesterday when i was sure
there would be buyers.
I've been hammering on Thursdays and Fridays.
Over time watch what happens on those two critical days on the NSE.its either a buy day or a sell day?.
Mind you a lot of research is done before i take a plunge or make an exit.

On another note i think some nairalanders should tone down dirty language.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:57pm On Nov 29, 2007
People on Nairaland should not call their brokers oh,make oceanic noh run again.
Me wan look for cheap price tomorrow.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:51pm On Nov 29, 2007
NSE can be so predictable sometimes,short term traders will not allow intercontinental exceed 25% plus.An expected drop today.
@ololufemi
Oceanic and UBA now well within striking distance.
They have made consistent daily drops since Tuesday (thats one of my weekly signals).
Oceanic is just at about close to its resistance level.I would advice a buy for both tomorrow.
I expect a drop tomorrow that's why you can buy tomorrow so you can both be positioned and be getting it at a low price.
If UBA drops to N48.80,you may not get it cheaper. The bank will intervene and i expect a rally from nextweek.
N48.80 is a good price which when you add 25% should lift it to its forecasted price of N61-N62.
Tomorrow is my buy day also cause i sold my intercontinental yesterday @33.05 to add another 25% to it within the next two weeks.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 12:33pm On Nov 29, 2007
wanaj0:
Well you have over 200 stocks on the NSE. How many stocks are listed in the banking sector? How many of them will you say is a BUY? How many stocks are in the Insurance sectors? How many of them are BUYs? Now move on to the Food and Beveradges and the Petroleum marketing sector. What of the Chemical and paints and the pharmaceutical sector. after that check the building and materials, conglomerates etc.

When you finish, classify the stocks that you will want into income stocks and growth stocks. Then you will know where I am coming from.

Additionally, there are stocks that I buy just to monitor, get the full annual reports, attend the AGM, get invited to the investors forum etc. That's why 15 stocks account for over 90% of my portfolio. For me that is the only way to get the FACTS behind the figures in an environment faced with dearth of information.

If you read my posts very well, I talk about overdiversification. However, there is an age you get to that your portfolio will have to be defensive. One thing you don't get is that at a certain level, growing your portfolio becomes secondary as compared to maintaining the status quo. At a certain age, you know that there are some extra risks that are not worth taken.

Everything is not just black and white. There are other issues that governs investment decisions and philosophies.

Getting a bit religious now, what is the objective your objective of investing? Just to make moneyhuh? Many don't have a clear objective in mind. When your objective is met, it is GREED that will make you to take extra unnecessary risks. Sometimes the additional risk is unwaranted based on your portfolio size and objective.
BIG BOY BILLIONAIRE.I wonder how large huhhuh,
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 10:27am On Nov 29, 2007
RoughCut:
Warren Buffet the greatest investor we have ever known happens to be a student of Ben Graham and he doesnt believe in diversification  or should i use the word over-diversification he  invests only in stocks that are in his domain of expertise

Hmnnnnnnn food for thought
I didn't want to talk yesterday when i heard 40 stocks.I say 40 (na wa oh,how many stock dey NSE).
Me don read many a time.Diversification is good to spread and manage your risks,BUT NEVER OVER DIVERSIFY.
Out of these 40 at least 15 will be stocks that cannot command good daily volume.You can put N200k here,N300k there and N250k there,when you add up all that small small money,they'll perform better in a well capitalized growth stock.
I dey back of Roughcut for this one (only for now oh).
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 9:47am On Nov 29, 2007
ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2

I agree oh. I hope it will still be available a week before TS is lifted.

What's your suggested entry price for Daimond. I'm looking at 19 for now. Need to make a quick decision.

Thanks Baba ke
N19 is just perfect if you can get it at that price.Diamond is an excellent short term buy.Take position for the 6month result.
GDR will not affect nothing.
It was the 1 for 4 Bonus that affected GTB sometime this year.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 9:20am On Nov 29, 2007
st1:
All The Gurus

Please advice me on this. I bought Mbenefit @ 3.58 and Crusader @ 4.72 in August. Now Mbenefit closed @3.88 and Crusader 5.60 yday. Do you think I should bail out now and move in on other vibrant stock? Or what is the best exit time?
You bought those two stocks at high prices relative to todays prices.You need to be patient for the next cycle and that'll be when full year results are ready for release.Most insurance companies are loosing steam fast.But for crusader that's 18% so far.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 9:15am On Nov 29, 2007
feelgood:
@fatherof2,
Thanks. What do you think of japaul - do I buy now or the price is high?
On your last question, pumping gave you an apt response.Which i agree with.
On this japaul. I haven't really looked at japaul.Its not liquid enough for me.
Japaul is currently on full bid hence the daily 5% jumps.
I would not normally advice you to buy a stock when the train has left.
The electricity on the tracks may shock you while you're trying to chase it.
Its better to be in position before TS is lifted.Leave Japaul now.Weekly opportunities abound in the NSE.

@ALL
On this issue of TS, why has Zenith and BankPHB suddenly moved off the offer chart.
It seems all the trading members of NSE are on this thread.You're all buying Zenith and BankPHB on the floor
and nothing for me to buy.Time never reachnow.Zenith starts on Dec. 6th,but its not on the offer table.WHY.
I'll see the position two weeks before the offer closes,maybe i'll offer N48.50 (N2.50 premium) to buy it off someone.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 6:45pm On Nov 28, 2007
feelgood:
Many thanks wanajo. But what do you think about japaul - is it ok to buy now? My goal it to max my 500,000Naira investment which I put in nahco by feb 2008. So can I sell my nahco for japaul - or which other stock do you advise?
Grateful 4 your time
@feelgood,

   For Nahco    (N30-N24)/N24  * 100%= 25%.

Your exit should have been your 25%,that was when it hit N30.

I sold 60,000 of intercontinental today,because i bought at N25 a few weeks ago (25% plus) and there're buyers today.Tomorrow may be another story for intercontinental.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 2:36pm On Nov 28, 2007
jehosaphat:
@ Father of 2
I have a problem with you. You seem to be bloated with a sense of importance because you predicted Access would rally and it did. The older members of this thread have been sacrificing their time and effort to share information and make sure that every one learns but you are bent on keeping yours to your self. From EMMAACHILE's reports, software and spreadsheets, Pumpings number crunching, no-shakings End of year reports, Easimoni, Wanajo, Aktopgun, youdiyokun, Temmie 10 etc, even me and my poultry proverbs, the essence is to share info but you are not doing that and I don't think it is fair. Youngdoc asked somewhere earlier in this thread . and you told him to go back and read his news papers, what kind of a response is that? Easimoni has asked you here You ignored him.
Yodiyokun asked you again and your reply was " hahahahaa"

I don't think thats the spirit of this thread angry, and if you would rather not say, why not tactically let us know that it is a secret software or something and not gloat ! angry angry

I don't expect you or anyone one else to reply just so we don't start another flow of bad blood but it has rankled within my belly and so i felt i should point it out.


Meanwhile, anyone watching Japaul?
I can see you diligently recalled the quotes from others,but you wrote my response in your own writing.I doubt i gave such a rude response.
To answer you its a combination of experience and Newspapers.
Those in the diaspora can't have access to these things because they can only read " Washington post".
Patiently repost my posts and i gave one clear answer somewhere.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:46pm On Nov 28, 2007
MyPeace:
Thank God for that tempation grin

l just checked to see that it has raised to N3.31 for the first time since i bought it.  l pray it should get to N5 before december ending so that l can cash out.
Cash out next Thursday/Friday(Good cash out days).Results are excellent,so you could get some 35% on your buy price.

No more temptation. cool
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:37pm On Nov 28, 2007
Oceanic approaching striking distance.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:29pm On Nov 28, 2007
MyPeace:
please somebody should react to pumping post on Lasaco result on page 87. lt seems am the only person suffering losses from lasaco? l bought at N3.25 4months ago, l hvnt joined this forum then shaa
[/quot

I was tempted to answer.
Don't panic.Watch it rise.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 1:07pm On Nov 28, 2007
kevyngbash:
Oya na, Fatherof2. Though I read the suggestion you gave someone earlier on, maybe something has changed, or perhaps, you have some other additions.
No vex oo
Me VEX.I no vex.You can't vex wen you're making cash.
I'll be watching henceforth cool (watching these OFFSHORE LANDERS). cool. Those flying across UK with 1st Bank money etc, wink
My ways are just too SOFISTICATED FOR THEM to understand.
When you're mystified by something you don't understand  huhand cannot grasp,you fight with it.

ololufemi has given you some pointers.But wait a little for UBA to drop some more.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:51pm On Nov 27, 2007
@ ALL MY OFFSHORE NAIRALANDERS


PEACE.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:48pm On Nov 27, 2007
yodiyokun:
Baba Ibeji,

make I no vex for you oooo.

When did you start on this thread sef huh . You see now - confess you did not read this thread from page 1.

I was taught how to FISH ON THIS THREAD. The guys here have never held their knowledge back. I remember easimoni, pumping and wanaj0 explained how to arrive at the various calculations. They provided links to site where i could do further reading.

Many spreadsheets have been flying around many times over.

That is why I keep saying - for new guys read the thread from beginning.

It is worth the effort - believe me.

Baba Ibeji - The guys here have taught people how to fish endlessly over and over again - I seriously do not blame them if they are tired!.
I know say you be my sister.
yodiyokun:
Oh keep quiet already - You are gradually turning this thread to something else.

Meanwhile  - jokes aside - Show us your hand oooo , what is the code you are using.

You promised to reveal it  - when na? abi na only you sabi do hit and run?
Hhahahahahahahahahaha
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:44pm On Nov 27, 2007
ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

When I was screaming buy the Zenith PO, people thought I was joking and were asking if I was Jim the dream Ovia's sister's, uncle, brother's child.

Some even claim the stock is too expensive. I am now surprised that it is now a hot stock.

If it is a hot stock, then its better to buy at the current market price on TS and not wait for the certificates, physical or electronic.


Got the info from IBTC stockselect. was just released earlier


SELECTED INDICES
Current Price : N54.00
Shares Outstanding : 11.181 billion
Market Capitalization : N603.819 billion
Stock Price Volatility :
Liquidity : High
Price to Book : 9.43 Industry Average: 5.41
Return on Assets 2005 : 4 .63%
Return on Assets 2006 : 2 .43%
Return on Equity 2005 :59.66%
Return on Equity 2006 :44.18%
PAT (2007) : N21.441 billion
Projected PAT (2008) : N32.161 billion
EPS (2007) : N3.02
Projected EPS (2008) : N2.87
PE (2007) : 18.4 Industry Average: 27.8
Projected PE (2008) : 18.77 Industry Average: 23.49
Dividend Yield (2007) : 2.20%
Projected Dividend Yield (2008) : 3.20% Industry Average: 2.42%
Fair Value : N68.00
Projected Price (September 2008) : N75.00
Recommendation : HOLD (Short Term) BUY (Long Term)
Yeah i read all your zenith posts and the pepper wen dem be wan put for your eye that time.I'm surprised to have heard Zenith on many offshore posts recently.But we know say na " SPREADSHEET MONEY " dey those computers.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:35pm On Nov 27, 2007
no_shaking:
Abeg, this thread is big enough to accommodate all kind of of divergence, likewise the stock market, so, softly softly on comments!! Like I always say, there is no permanent champion in the market. It's simply a zero-sum game, my people!

By the way, where was Fatherof2 during the long bearish period? Just wondering what his strategy was then? huh huh
Wait for the next GRIZZLY Bear soon.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:33pm On Nov 27, 2007
no_shaking:
Hey, it's a valid point you are making to an extent, but you too should slow down on your prophecy and over-elaboration, for real and pay more attention to the technicals etc huh huh
Hmmmmmm, i doubt if one stock recommended by me has not been a company with strong fundamentals.
I'm very well read on all the necessary technicals on stock trading.
My advice to our " OFFSHORE NAIRALANDERS " is to do some more teaching and not shooting 10bn outstanding and i'm sorry 5mins later.
Tell people how to calculate P/E(Forward or trailing).
When you come up with an eps of 1.02 you can teach a few to fish on their own by saying (N9,587,906,137 / outstanding 9,399,907,978)= 1.02.
TEACH THEM TO FISH.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:12pm On Nov 27, 2007
pumping777:
Well, I don't know how this affects you. Just skip the posts. You can take care of your  own "students". According to Fela sha, Teacher Don't teach Me Nonsense. Also don't forget to answer the question for your "students", "HOW CAN THIS TRANSLATE TO A LOSS FOR MEhuh)
AH ah, you're also offshore TOO.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:10pm On Nov 27, 2007
RoughCut:
I didnt hear anybody complaining though so not sure what you are on about
I didn't know you were offshore.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 4:57pm On Nov 27, 2007
@ ALL MY OFFSHORE NAIRALANDERS,

  I keep seeing jaw breaking number crunching flying across the screen.Why don't you translate your number crunching into something more tangible for the numerous not too discerning investors that watch you daily.BECOME REAL TEACHERS.
We keep seeing scenerios like " Mr. X how many shares do you have outstanding for Company J.Mr. Y replies 600bn.
Mr. X says " Oh sorry my mistake".My Z now adds his own 5bn too.
Many investors on this thread have one question ".HOW DOES THIS TRANSLATE TO PROFIT FOR ME.?, ".
Translate your figures to Buy and Sell decisions.  
Period.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 3:08pm On Nov 27, 2007
Hmmmmmmm. interesting responses.I won't reply them.

@ ololufemi

Hope you still remember,wait for UBA to cool temper small.Let it cool its temper to N52-N53.They did not release payment date.Month wants to end.
If it starts flying at today's starting price of N56.40,then it'll be N65 by friday.That's too fast.No room to chop.That will not be following the rules of the game.You need to change to gear 2 before you move to gear 5. Same with oceanic.
The info i got on this intercontinental is an interim dividend in the offing.For those who bought intercontinental at N25.00,we're approaching 25% based on my computer readings now.Thursday looks like a good exit date along with Mutual Benefit if you bought at N3.00 (so my pc tells me).
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 5:10pm On Nov 26, 2007
lawalidowu:
@fatherof2

roughly when will the announcements will be made?
i aminvolved in a similar scenario but i am just helping my friend manage his money. i want a very active portfolio, buying and getting rid of stocks in a 3 month window frame. i know things don't always go as predicted so, combining 3 low risk with 1 high risk stock should keep the portfolio above water in worst case scenarios.
what stocks fit into the sure average gain (2 - 3) and the gambled high gain (1 - 2).
wanajo, easimoni, pumping and d gurus. your input will be appreciated

3 MONTHS WINDOW FRAME. 6 MAX cool
I have to be very honest with you,like i've said all along.History guides most of my actions.And i'm looking at UBA release this December,it could be slightly later sha.But my compass keeps pushing my hand to December.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 4:48pm On Nov 26, 2007
upward:
Oga FatherOF2, I'm still expecting your mail, or at least a response. I'm willing to learn from the masters, I'ev learnt a lot on this forum and from pumping.
Oga upward me no be master.No one is a master.The masters are still the real stockbrokers with 20years experience.
I have to disappoint you on the e-mail thing.

@some

Don't be sentimental about any stock (PAPA of MD get this or that).The stock does not know you're buying it.
You'll be surprised how people react once they hear higher profits. Take advantage of that reaction and take your quick 25-30%.
At least FCMB did beta than GT (Growth wise) and GT is still rising.If they declared 200% increase in profits won't you call EFCC to investigate.Just
praise their 139% increase and not " FCMB could have done better".
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 3:44pm On Nov 26, 2007
upward:
Hello people, take a look at this news.you can make something outa it:


EKOCORP PLC UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 0.406 0.353 0.053 15.01
PBT 0.089 0.110 -0.021 -19.09
TAXATION 0.009 -0.011 0.002 -18.18
PAT 0.080 0.099 -0.019 -19.19


FCMB PLC HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 OCTOBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
GROSS EARNINGS 21.870 10.880 10.990 101.01
PBT 6.763 2.822 3.941 139.65
TAXATION 1.420 -0.592 -0.828 -139.86
PAT 5.343 2.230 3.113 139.60


RED STAR EXPRESS PLC HALF YEAR RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
2007 2006 CHANGE % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %
TURNOVER 1.585 1.338 0.247 18.46
PBT 0.212 0.193 0.019 9.84
TAXATION 0.064 - 0.058 -0.006 -10.34
PAT 0.148 0.135 0.013 9.63
Now i'm loving FCMB's growth rate.Profits up 139%. Offers come aboard.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by FatherOF2: 3:39pm On Nov 26, 2007
You know what dey call " SPREADSHEET MONEY". You can be worth N11m today and next monday N7m.That is spreadsheet money.Its nothing till you make a sale.Its in your pocket.Remember you didn't really do anything to earn that money.Someone paid you for that share.The money did not come from heaven.That person may be loosing because he bought the share off you at a high price.But that's not your business.Your bankers will be counting real money and not " SPREADSHEET MONEY".

@ all who bought access at N17.60 or N18.45, from my estimate,if access reaches N25 by wednesday,i'm bailing out by Thursday RESULT OR NO RESULT.What is important,is that the objective and target i set for myself is achieved.With the current rate of rising,if it gets to N25 or more and the result is not yet out,the market would already have anticipated the result and built it into the price of N25-N26.So when the results actually come,there'll be little movement.Lets see if another 4.97% can be added tomorrow.
Happy investing.

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