₦airaland Forum

kpineo:
@ father of 2
is now the time or still wait as the offer doesnt' close till 19th and brokers can still buy 2 weeks after. i want to give Father of 2's strategy a try as my own hasn't worked lately.

The best time to buy shares is now.Same applies for PHB.I hope you get sha.
Wisdom is creeping into NSE daily.Buy before you hear its on bid even while on TS.

afroil:
@FatherOF2,

no bi me get Afroil o.i started usin it as my nairaland Id to serve as a remembrance for d fuckin =N=1.5million net gain i made from it middle this yr durin the long rally upnorth d moribound stock (so to say some peeps on this forum) made that time.i was among d luck ones that reaped bountifully from it.

As per your broker, i just nid him for trading activities only nt 4 any other tins like advice on wich stock to buy or nt to buy,lailai.i myself i'm a stock analyst/picker myself,and i hav been doing that on weekly/monthly basis 4 d past more than 3yrs now,it has been win-win tin 4 me.Though i rarely post thread on advice on stock on this forum because i wait arguement based on my last experience.

still let me know your stock broker probably via my e-mail given earlier

Slow down small with f word OH. The name is ( Tradelink Securities Ltd).
I need to get the actual location address in Marina.
But like i said earlier na only trades i use them for.Don't expect anything except you probe.

ololufemi:
@ kpineo,

Invest in Bank PHB on the floor.

@kpineo
He just adviced you.

kpineo:
any news on the much awaited access bank results

E dey come.Soon,
You should have exited your MB last Thursday while buyers were available.It had a higher price.Its hard to sell when everyone is selling.

pumping777:
No intention to usurp.

I think one effective strategy will be to exit before the results are actually results because the price build up will have priced the stock for expected good results.  

So if good results are released, you don't lose much because additional price increase will in most cases only be marginal and you won't join the herd trying to sell off at the same time. If the result is bad, you already exited before the correction to lower the price.

I have been looking at the trends and I see that the prices tend to start rising a few weeks before the results are eventually released.

Oh baba pumping you don dey get am. Na car you take hit nail for head.
Exactly.Whatever margin is left after the result is announced may not be much compared to what you have already gained(particularly if you keep strictly to your profit margin target).The only exception is when you're sure the rumour and scent of bonus is too strong in the exhaust coming out of NSE trading floor Airconditioners.
But for a stock that lays dormant all year round and only releases year end result you can take position and carry your margin after announcement go keep for your Zenith Bank account.

yodiyokun:
Baba Ibeji,

Expand Further - So you are not interested in the future performance of the company, just the current performance and the way the market will react to the news of the result.

But we have seen that the market does not react to all results, e.g GTB result did not get any reaction neither did First Banks. So which companies are we talking about ?

What criteria make them unquie for this kind of cherry pick (_{or should I say gambling)}.

Talk to me

Of course i'm interested in the future earnings.But when we don dey near that"FUTURE BRIDGE" i go take position again.
Short Term for me is  0(zero)-3(Three).Everything in between included.
Once upon a time GTB was N28 about the last week of September/1st week of October.Anticipation started.If you sold the Thursday before that closure date i believe you haveb some 21% in your pocket.Lets see its behaviour by the month of February (0-3 months before its historical announcement dates).You can be taking part in other actions between now and then.

ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

I noticed something and would want to ask if you concur

The current PE ratios for Bank PHB and Zenith are lower than the kindustry average and generally across the industry, Their forward PE ratios look fantastic.

Bank PHB is even aiming for a PE ratio of between 8 and 10 in 2010.

Anyway they claim that the can make cars run on water so why not this PE ratio. Wish them luck  

I think I am going to stake my cash on these two in the secondary market but I just have to buy Zenith PO because I get to satisfy someone.

To conclude, Bank PHB should be trading at N32 to N34 while Zenith should be at N53 to N59.

Still conservative figure though.

Holla back big bro

Yeah i agree.But the thing is that i'm not buying them because of their future PE's.The fact is that if your PE is good now now and your result was good in the past (like two quarters) and i'm expecting your result in two months time,i will buy you.As per the forward PE,that is why i said PUMPING will hold his calculator one day for me.

yodiyokun:
Let you head swell with measure oooooooooooooo Baba Ibeji!!

I like this my sister.She always give motherly advice.

pumping777:
@FatherOF2

Regarding the Thursday/Friday action dates.

From your previous posts, my understanding is that these are good days to SELL. Is this correct or does it apply to BUYING as well?

I give you an example.Look back in the last 3months.Try and observe when some of the BLUE CHIP companies announce their results.If you've been keeping any accurate records,you'll see it falls mostly on Thursday or Friday.Now you're are not on the trading floor.If you've noticed a gradual consistent descent in a stock you've been watching.You can give your buy order to your broker on these days (particularly when you're anticipating a release of results for that month).You would have taken your position if you're lucky before the results comes out and everyone else would hear tomorrow morning and prize starts jumping again.Same also,don't be greedy,set your exit target and sell those days while buyers are available.Most people give their brokers sell order in panic when they see prices falling next day,not knowing some people don carry their own run.
Pumping i go soon ask you big question.Hold your calculator one day.

pumping777:
@FatherOF2

Regarding the Thursday/Friday action dates.

From your previous posts, my understanding is that these are good days to SELL. Is this correct or does it apply to BUYING as well?

If the trend shows a consistent descend, they're buy days.
If the trend shows a consistent ascend, they're sell days.
These are my ways.

Meanwhile you never ask me question before.Wetin happen?.

afroil:
@FatherOF2,

I nid just one help from u,the help is can i know your stock broker?your strategy is precisely d system i'm equally usin long long time ago and is working 4 me, even though some peeps on this forum told me then when i first revealed it that it was nt possible.now u too are saying d sametin,may be dey wil believe now that it is possible.

Dat is that jare,let's ride on

my e-mail is forexkiller2008@yahoo.com ,kindly send to me your Stock Broker contact address

thanks

So na you get Afroil.No wonder.
You won't enjoy my stockbroker.He has no hand in any decision i make.I fired him (advice wise oh) about a year ago.The guy will not tell you anything,i get more info from the papers than from him.Though he revealed the Thursday/Friday action dates to me sha.I won't recommend him at all.He's a one man show.I just use him to do my trading and get low rates and registered with "NSE Trade Alert" like a year plus to ensure i'm not cheated on price.
At the beginning Kai i suffer with the fake prices he was giving me that he bought so and so.Na newspaper price i dey always get.

ololufemi:
@ All,

Zenith public offer opens tomorrow,

Its time to bring out your piggy banks and start to invest in this great offer. A wonderful christmas present brought to us by Mr Jim, the dream, Ovia.

Remember, its always in your best interest.

@ Fatherof2,

I intend to buy the Zenith Public offer(primary market) and also purchase it on the floor of the NSE (secondary market), so that while cashing in on the secondary market after TS is lifted, my primary market share is intact and gaining until it is listed on the floor. that way, I feel I can eat my cake and have it.

What's your advise on that.

thanks a lot

Zenith is good both ways.But i develop cold feet for any PO because of that verification horror of the past. The only PO i tried was Union,i had about 167000 units of that stuff which i bought in two names.I didn't like the 4month experience i had trying to verify the Union.I only thankGod Mr.Ebong delayed the results long enough for my verification ordeal to be over.
But i think you're very free to have it both ways with Zenith(hoping e-credit goes well next year).I just want to see how long it takes after a PO is concluded before CSCS accounts are credited.
Knowing Nigeria,another bottleneck could arise after PO's that could cause crediting of CSCS accounts to take like 7months again.These banks won't like to just see their prices fall so fast so soon if everyone can automatically cash in so fast and same time.First bank has no problem with e-credit.They don't really manipulate their prices.But others do a lot.

model1780:
Guess it means that generally, one should wait till that last week in the year to make a choice, most should be on their lowest prices for the month right?

Generally yes, but still keep an eye on the good ones.A good price can pop up before then and stay at its resistance level.
I'm keeping a close eye on Vitafoam now.Its falling small small.That stock is a good example of a stock that speculators have RAPED (sorry to use that word) in the last 4 months.Go to www.cscsnigerialtd.com and click on price history and see how vitafoam has behaved.I rode the cycle of that stock twice.
I'm waiting for a good fall because history shows announcements around January/Feb.If that thing falls below N8 again na my whole body i go take enter.

My dear People,
 
   I miss una oh, men na serious battle with my pc virus for the second time this year on a new laptop.I press F8 select "last known configuration" the thing no gree start again.Kai see trouble.Luckily i had saved my docs(particularly my SPREADSHEET MONEY) in another flashdrive.I had to format the system and reload the pc with xp2 and other softwares.To even find nairaland and last page was wahala.But thankGod i'm back. Men be carefull about those so called "TROJAN HORSES".Computer demons.
@ Temmie10
   Thanks for your short term analysis on page 210.For someone staying outside this country you have a strong antenna in knowing exactly where the money resides in NSE.
@ ololufemi
   You hit the nail on the head with your last post on page 211.If you've noticed, i've never engaged in breaking my back teeth (number crunching)
  except absolutely necessary.I hardly get caught up by bears,if i'm caught, i should be under the soil they stand(low price) and not directly under their
  claws.
@ yodiyokun
  I'm watching UBA closely.One cannot predict the lowest of the low for the price,but things happen Thursday/Friday for me.
  I'll be taking my position soon,lets watch.A lot of people will be travelling on the 21st and will need some money (UBA may be part of it).Also
  i'll prefer the week before the actual payment date.
  1. Many people travel more for Newyear than Christmas and will need money then(28th/29th).
  2. Also after riding the wave of those who want to collect dividend,you can sell just before closure date,hopefully price will fall and hopefully by
      January ending/sometime in february UBA should declare its 1st quarter result for year 08 ( yet another wave to ride).
@Windywendy
  I don't personally make 25% every single week but many speculators do.Sometimes its three/four weeks,but i try to ensure i'm making money every
 month. Do you know if you start with N25m in January and set a conservative target of 25% every quarter(4 quarters total), you'll end up with N61m by year end
with compounding.Each year the cycle repeats itself you just need to know how to ride it from experience.
@ All
  I want you to take a note of all that has happened in the NSE in the last 4-5months and watch the NSE same time nextyear and you'll see how trends    
  repeat themselves in the NSE( Old habits die hard).

easimoni:
Does Motherof2 have a say in this matter?

Ah na democracy we dey oh.You must vote first.

nkc:
father of 2 , i guess u have a viral infection, can u boot into safe mode, and try uninstalling d vga driver, first reboot and as u are starting up again press f8 and it should take u to a screen to choose safe mode, then go ahead from there,

Aha that is another strong point oh.I actually copied some old work files last nite from my old infected laptop into a flashdrive and try to view the files in my new pc about 30mins later.I thot since i had Norton on it,i had automatic safety.Its possible the virus sneaked in from the Flashdrive because the problem started after i switched off and switched on this morning. F8 will definately work this evening. Thanks another million. Guru nkc and Guru Russia(Rushnovski).

rushnovski:
Hello Father of 2
, you may have had your pc configured to update itself automatically. If that is the case, it may have picked up an updated driver and which may not work correctly with your monitor. If you can, remove the video card and install on a different pci slot. That way, the pc sees it as anew device and you may be able to reinstall d new driver. If that does not work and depending on your OS (operating system), when it is booting and wants to start windows, click on F8 to resume from last known good.
hope that helps,
Father of 3 boys!

Thanks so much.I'll try out the F8 thing this evening.My system is a laptop so i won't be able to have access to the video card. I believe "last known good configuration "should work.
On the otherhand, so you use one boy take pass me.I must start work on number 3 immediately.
I'll update you tomorrow.(i.e. on the pc issue oh)

Oya
@ Computer Geniuses all over the world

I get problem since last nite.The screen of my PC just shrunk by about 35% all of a sudden,
i don adjust resolution tire and nothing.I can't even uninstall the display driver.E no gree.
Abeg i need help.All una writing look tiny for my eye now.

D-DOTS:
@all,

Can anyone advise of a charting software that can be used for NSE stocks. This has been asked a couple of times but it always seems to get lost in the current gist. I'm sure there are a couple of Technical analysts out there who can help. As stated before, with the sound fundamental analysis that one gets on this site, mixing it up with some technical analysis would be lethal.

@windywnedy, which charting software do you use because I noticed you were talking about the price of one stock just under its 50 day moving average.

If you're online,go to excel do an online search in excel for "stock analysis".Microsoft will bring up a list of tools for stock analysis.One of which is Moving average.It smoothens out the fluctuations in stock prices overtime and helps you with some prediction.If you have the original Office professional cd,you could install the analysis tool pack ADD-IN and choose the one that applies to stock analysis.You'll get something on moving average.But you need to be a financial expert to use that stuff.Hope that could help you.

shigidi:
i would advice anyone with loose capital to go into gtb, at the price it closed at today its forward pe is only 18.7. don't forhet its year end is round the corner.
just my advice

That's a good price if you can wait till like 6months sha.
Don't really expect anything to move it too high up again in the meantime.
But i normally pickup my GTB's in the exact month of year end (February).
I've seen historically they announce around April/May so i don't tie down money for too long.
(This is just what i do sha), not advicing

kevyngbash:
Hi house

The price of Fidelity Bank Plc stock was today marked down for dividend payment of 16K. Payment date is 17th December, 2007.
UBA Plc Notification of Closure of Register : Closure Date January 7 - 9, 2008.
Please find below  company  results released today on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange

Fatherof2, whats your take on UBA now?

@ ololufemi,
  Thanks my weekend was fine.I'm trying to get my new connections up so i can be on during the weekend.
 Hope yours was ok too.

@ kevyngbash
  I usually expect closure dates to be about 2 weeks after announcement dates.In this weird case of UBA.
  Lets see how the price floats ,but to scrape some margin out of it, (depending on the price then which i expect to be  
  low)i would take position on the Thursday&Friday after boxing day.

 Right now i'm focusing on Bank PHB & Zenith on the floor and also preparing my selection of stocks for which i expect
 9 months and 6months results (so far 1st bank,Bank PHB, Zenith,Diamond are on radar).

yodiyokun:
I honestly do not see UBA really rising significantly based on that Dividend declaration - Na just 1.20k.

Even if it rises to 60 - thats just 15% appreciation after you remove 5% for commission

You honestly also don't expect Zenith and PHB oversubscription.
Hope you heard about Access outcome.
They love PO's and Dividends.

yodiyokun:
I honestly do not see UBA really rising significantly based on that Dividend declaration - Na just 1.20k.

Even if it rises to 60 - thats just 15% appreciation after you remove 5% for commission

(10/50) * 100%= 20%

damoche07:

Have a contribution?,

model1780:
@ Father of 2

Please from your last comment on UBA, are you sayin its not time to buy yet?

You can take position in anticipation of the announcement of closure date.
Nobody can really say this is the lowest possible price.
But N50 i think its a safe zone.It could go down but when its time to rise,it will exceed your positioning price.
Its hard to chase a train in motion.

easimoni:
You self don notice? Temmie mention Standard Alliance and it gains 50% in a month, Shigidi and Beta Glass; the stock is moving out-of-range, Wanaj0 and NGC; up 30+%, Fatherof2 and Access, Pumping and Unic/Law Union. You guys need to let me buy, THEN let the cat out of the bag. _{Me self try with Ikeja Hotels}

You don finally make me laugh.

[quote author=MyPeace link=topic=31554.msg1735102#msg1735102 date=1196433434

@Fatherof2
l can't get it on the floor, N25 seem expensive compared to N17, and l am in for it till 2009.  

Thank u all for your contributions.
[quote][/quote]This is why i'm getting PHB on the floor at N25.
1. They just announced a bonus of 1 for 4.
2. 6 months result expected at least in January 08'
2. The stock enjoys goodwill post TS.
3. Fair value for me is N32-N33 (Bail out point 25% plus)post TS.
4. Remember GTB (when they start issueing the bonus) stock becomes diluted and some will cash in(Meanwhile you've bailed out) price falls
   and you jump in again after it settles.
5. Know the past deep to predict the future.

MyPeace:
@Fatherof2
l can't get it on the floor, N25 seem expensive compared to N17, and l am in for it till 2009.

Thank u all for your contributions.

If its 09' go for the PO then. E-certificates may have developed by then.

Naijadr:
hey FO2 I think the UBA price will be about N51-N52 Monday what do you think? That still appears to be a good entry range

Volume 11m plus.Just a blimp on the screen.
You'll know when the swarm descends on the corn farm.

ololufemi:
@ Fatherof2,

Get it on the floor.

Baba oh, afternoon, was wondering where you were. Happy to see you back.

Fatherof2 is right. Buy PHB and Zenith on the floor instead.

Remember, its only stocks available in the market that you can sell unless you want them for long term.


FatherOf2,

Missed my bids for UBA and Oceanic today.
They did not drop but appreciated points today.

What next in the offing.

Hope you can help

Sorry men, i've been around.Just reading the thread.
You know this thing is first come first serve.Lets see Monday's activities.
I watch the Monday to Wednesday trend and choose between Thursday/Friday.
Still place your bids for the price you initially set(not higher) for monday.If it drops,someone is selling and you'll get it.

tonyjon:
FATHEROF2,

Is as if UBA and OCEANIC don wake up. What is your take on them?.

Peace.

Someone else noticed a relatively cheap price on both and moved in.Thursday's/Fridays are attack days.
Still watching UBA.Waiting for that closure date.

MyPeace:
@Wanajo
hhahaha , l just need the money for bank PHB, thats why am concerned.

Get it on the floor.