₦airaland Forum

vision2050:
go find out.... You think there will be credible election in Ogun and Nigeria at large?

Okay let's say the results are written...it will favour Dapo abi?

dyydxx:
My God I just fell asleep for 3 hours and you and AgbariOjukwu have taken over .... This agbarojukwu guy must be your other supporter on the old thread this is just a new moniker. Anyway, to the issues

Shebi Amosun structure is the APM? are you saying APC dont have anything if you remove Amosun... in any case Federal Might is still there plus APC is still the most recognisable brand logo. There will be confusion with the APM thing and I find it hARD to believe all who would vote for Amosun and teka fun APC will all off a sudden teka fun APM on that faithful day.
Besides many are following Amosun because of cash, not all defected with his loyalists and they will vote APC on the d day gan gan.

Dapo lost out the last time to kashamu because of the combination of both Kashamu and Adebutu votes.... that's why he lost. Now that they are both divided they wont be able to turn out that vote to make him lose again. it will probably be a draw here in Ogun East.

This is why I said it's most likely will be a run off between Dapo and GNI. Akinlade will not make that run off.

Hope u enjoyed ur nap?

Let's say it ends in a tie in Ogun East, where will Dapo make up d nos to get a runoff?

Do u know people in Ogun West APM are not mentioning APC at all, as all candidates there are Amosun's people...they only mention Buhari's name and that's all.

It might be a little bit dicey in Ogun Central...but don't underestimate what one can achieve within 2 weeks when u have all d State apparatus at ur disposal...OGTV, OGBC 1 and 2....lots of loyal and grassroots heavyweight foot soldiers and d financial capability.

As for Ladi and Buruji...don't forget they are both campaigning vigorously; though separately...which is more dangerous than one of them losing out...maybe their supporters might have switched to GNI or Dapo....but as it is...it is even more dangerous and counterproductive to Dapo's course that they are running separate campaign under d same platform.

vision2050:
This is not octopus issue. The result have been written.

Buhahahahahaha

Like u wrote the primary election result that produced Dapo Abiodun abi...continue


So who came 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th ojare?

vision2050:
March 2, reality will be dawn on you. Akinlade will come 4th.

Octopus d Paul...

May we all live beyond March 2....

AgbariOjukwu1:
Bro, you are absolutely right.

I remember in 2007 when Buhari came to Abeokuta to campaign at the Alake Palace, he saw the massive crowd Amosun was able to pull for him despite the believe that ANPP was mostly seen as a northern party in the South west. Buhari likes amosun and he trusts him.

When they did Apc governorship primaries which Oshiomole claimed Dapo won, Amosun went to Abuja to complain, Oshiomole said Amosun doesn't enjoy the support of the majority party members in the state.

Oshiomole sent another committee for the national and state assemblies primary . Amosun paid channels tv to televise the elections live. The Alhaji Ciroma led committee announced results of the election and virtually all Amosun's candidates won the election. What happened next was that, Oshiomole replaced those that won the primaries with those that didn't contest and those that lost but were loyal to Tinubu and Osoba...

Amosun went to meet Buhari again , this time he went with Alake and Olu of Ilaro

Buhari knows what is happening in Ogun state but he's handicapped because of his elections buhari doesn't totally trust Tinubu and that was why it was alleged that Tinubu was sidelined at a time but when they needed him for elections, they called him back.. Who knows what will happen to Tinubu after Buhari wins this election.

That's why Buhari is grooming the likes of Fashola, Fayemi and Amosun to counter Tinubu in d future.

I am totally aware of all that transpired my bro...let's just watch and see how things play out.

LordBailish:
Politics is no maths....

Goodluck Jonathan had all the structure plus federal might and still lost the election in 2015. Similarly, Gbenga Daniel had all the structure as well as hardcore gangsters at his disposal and still lost.

If you understand politics very well you'll know Amosun's rants and chants is that of a drowning man. Just wait and see what will become of him.

Just like the Ekiti and Osun elections, APC will find a way round the situation here. Akinlade is not near the options in Ogun.

Since the showdown in Ogun seem like a replica of what played out in 2015 to u, that means APC can't win too....In 2015, we had 3 top parties (PDP, PPN and ACN)...ACN took advantage and won...Now we 4 strong parties and candidates...no one knows where d pendulum would swing...but again u wouldn't expect anything less from a winner...football teams and even war generals boast of victory b4 going into a match or war...u can't go to war with ur tail between ur legs like Dapo is doing and expect to win...kole werk

Also note that Daniel didn't contest, but Amosun is on the ballot...don't also forget OGD had lost it totally b4 d election...d HOA buhaha crippled his govt 2 years to d polls...refuse everywhere in d State...Amosun is more popular in Ogun Central now than OGD was in Ogun East in 2015.

All the same, time will tell sha.

I can always have consolation in GNI if Akinlade fails to win.

babaolofin:
I observed two people that have dominated this thread are Amosun boys. They are not facing reality. Their analysis are absurd, baseless and fantasy to comfort Amosun

See, i base my submission on what i see on ground...while i am not sure if Akinlade would win...I know Abiodun can't win...GNI even ranks ahead of him and also has d best chance but for d lack of strong structure and war chest...even Adebutu will beat him flat.


But can u pls roll out how u think Dapo Abiodun can win?

babaolofin:
I was at aderupatan, Ajebo, Ogunmakin & other rural communities along that axis from Sunday leaving this morning. There are APM posters everywhere. You also find little posters of PDP (Adebutu) and ADC (Gboyega Isiaka). Up till Monday 31st December, 2018 afternoon, No single APC poster at Ajebo & Aderupatan, Ogunmakin has very few posters.

On that Monday at Ajebo there was meeting at APC secretariat located almost adjacent to PDP secretariat. While I was discussing with some APC members at the secretariat of the zero presence of APC posters in the area as very unbelievable but a reality, a Toyota car brought some APC posters of Dapo Abiodun. The bearer told me they are aware and that's the reason they brought those posters.

I also observed the rural communities don't actually understand what is real happening. PDP Kashamu presence is not known at all in that area. They don't know Amosun is even contesting election. One or two that are aware don't know he is contesting under APC. They said Amosun is the owner of APM. There are confusion among the rural populace. The elites are few and most don't vote

I have no doubt that the APM/APC will cause confusion for those supporting Amosun at the grassroots, but let's watch how he plays it...he has 2 weeks after d 1st election to hit nook and crannies of this rural areas...whether that would be enough for AAA to win is something else

AgbariOjukwu1:
The major mistake APC made was ceding their ticket to Ogun East.. Ogun West can never forgive APC for that. If Amosun should backtrack and decide to support Dapo Abiodun, Ogun West will not only feel betrayed by Amosun but by the Egbas too.

So I don't blame Amosun for insisting on Akinlade though I would have preferred Tolu Odebiyi or Yayi.

Tinubu, Osoba and Co neglected party's interest just because they wanted to take over the structure of the party from Amosun. In their political miscalculation they stole the party ticket and gave it to Ogun East instead of looking for another candidate in Ogun West to tackle Amosun.

I am telling u...Tolu Odebiyi would have bn better...but Amosun has worked with both Odebiyi and Akinlade closely and he knows them...maybe he saw what we are not seeing...as for Yayi, i have it on good authority that he's not from Ogun West at all...2, we can't have as Gov someone who would every month have to send royalty (isakole) to Lagos before settling down for d business of governance in Ogun.

Gazzy88:
Dapo is a smart man. He knows how vital amosun's support can be. If care isn't taken, akinlade could become the next ogun governor judging from what's happening lately. Did you know that amosun already have moles in the current APC in ogun that are ready to truncate dapo's candidacy. Dapo hasn't started any campaign yet which should tell you that his only hope is federal might which may not work during the polls due to amosun's closeness to buhari. Something should tell you that amosun already done his homework well hence why he's boasting. People like tolu odebiyi, APC senatorial aspirant in ogun west, and others within APC are working for amosun behind the scene.

They think because they visited Buhari and he lifted Abiodun's hand, he has his total support, and he would win...but they are in for a shocker...Amosun replied by flying on the Presidential jet with Buhari back to Abuja from Akwa Ibom to show how close he is to Buhari...Buhari is just playing along to ensure all factions work for him and ensure he wins the State...after which we will all know where he stands.

AgbariOjukwu1:
Bro, Elections will be going on simultaneously all over Nigeria that day. And all the foot soldiers that will make the federal might work effectively well are already in APM.... AMERICO, JANGO, OBAMA etc besides even the Osun Elections that Apc went with the entire Calvary ,were they not about to lose the election if not for Amosun, Fayemi and others that went to beg Omisore ? Where was the federal might then?

That's what i am saying too...but these Dapo guys are hellbent on believing Dapo has a chance...i have told them everybody will be minding his own business during d Gen Elections but they are hoping on Fed Mgt oo.

And then they talk about APC structure in Ogun...imagine if Aregbe had pulled out his structure from APC before Osun2018...imagine Ajimobi withdrawing his structure from APC in Oyo...it is only in Lagos u can mess with a sitting Gov within d same party and get away with it...here in Ogun...kole werk

AgbariOjukwu1:
I have business interests in Ijebu-Ode and Oru-Ijebu , Dapo is a late comer here... Remember few weeks back, Dapo was still hoping Buhari will persuade Amosun to support him hence he said Amosun will be at his flag off.

Up till now APC hasn't done their own flag off, even kashamu has done his own.

Even Akinlade that came out just about a month ago has hit the ground running...Dapo does not know how the game is played...he's scared to release funds....he is a strict businessman who doesn't joke with his money...he sees politics as an investment that must heed dividends...little wonder he retrieved the transformer and vehicles he gave to people after he lost out in 2015.

And the way Ogun politics is wired...and putting into consideration d gladiators he's going up against, he just has to win Ogun East to have a slim chance at all...how he will be able to do that is beyond me

AgbariOjukwu1:
Lol, Bro you have started again... Which party structure are you talking about? The one firmly in the hands of Amosun? Even the Apc senatorial candidate for Ogun, Senator Lekan Mustapha is with Amosun... Tunde Oladunjoye that released that statement dare not enter the state APC secretariat...


Nobody knows who will win the Governorship election in the state but one thing is certain, APC can't win Ogun State.

Even Dapo knows what is on ground now...he knows APC his nothing without SIA's structure...that's d reason he's not castigating Amosun publicly to see if he can still change his stance...only his followers are living in self-deceit...time will tell

Humblega:
Both Apc and amosun (apm) will loss more dan dey will gain from d fraca....


Ogun election will b interesting come february.

All candidates


* d only tin dapo (apc) has is good party structure. D man is light weight politician

* Gni (adc). Have public sympathy + a well know but d man no too get much

* buruji/adebutu (pdp).....eitheir of dem can sweep ogun east votes + availability of cash but d fight btw dem os taking too long

* akinlade (apm)......really on amosun.....sure amosun still av d highest loyalties in d state + very high funds but dat may not b enough



As it stand gni (adc) have d highest chance in a free and fair election


But we all know

I agree with u...but this APC structure people keep talking about baffles me...which structure gangan? What is left of APC in Imo and Ogun when u remove Okorocha and Amosun's structure from it...all that will be left is carcass...if u mentioned Federal might, u might not be far from d truth...but structure? I beg to differ

dyydxx:
it may go into a run off. to be honest its not clear who will win at this point, but Akinlade will never win. Dapo still has the edge because of APC party structure, GNI has no structure but It's between them both.

I agree with u on the runoff part.

But pls my brother, which APC structure exactly are talking about, the same Osoba structure that left APC for SDP in 2015 and yet couldn't deliver any seat...because i am not understanding...I even believe PDP (forget about d factions) has more chance than Dapo (since the 2 are still campaigning under PDP)...I know the Dapo camp is relying on Federal might to conquer in 2019, but i doubt if they will have it after Feb 14.

The fact that Dapo has Adebutu still running in Ogun East is a huge blow to him...because he can't even win Adebutu in Iperu to start with

God can't be mocked...this man is mocking God and at d same time, he's playing on d intelligence of his followers

Matthew 23:27-28
27 “Woe to you, teachers of the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You are like whitewashed tombs, which look beautiful on the outside but on the inside are full of the bones of the dead and everything unclean. 28 In the same way, on the outside you appear to people as righteous but on the inside you are full of hypocrisy and wickedness.


A thief who connived with those in power to steal from the people, and still flaunts his proceeds at d same people he stole from openly without remorse...he didn't stop there, he's now using d name of God to win d sympathy of d gullible ones among his victims while trying to dodge from what he sowed with his questionable wealth...He knows that most Nigerians love God...and he's trying to use His name to escape persecution of trying to kill one of the same God's creatures.

Our God can not be mocked.

Though as it stands, Akinlade still has a lot of grounds to cover if he wants to succeed Amosun... but how that certificate fraud, Dapo is going to win is something i don't understand... as in how will he do it now?

Ogun East: He has Kashamu and Adebutu to fight there...both of them, top notch grassroots politicians...he's no match to them in any of the LGs.


Ogun West: He should not even bother...they won't leave thier sons to vote him.

Ogun Central: Where Tunde Oladunjoye is trying to bring down Amosun's influence...Dapo will lose woefully.

Still waiting for their magic though...Dapo is the one who needs prayers so that his certificate scandal doesn't consume him along with d potential bankruptcy that is staring him in the face when he loses.

Left to me, be it Akinlade or GNI...i am so good

LordBailish:
Amosun has been the only one talking. The forces he's up against have been quiet and seem to understand how well to win this election.

I'm still not sure how Amosun intends to fight this battle. I think he'll definitely know Akinlade can't be a contest but just trying to divide APC's vote in the states so Dapo Abiodun doesn't get elected.

You can't run a battle against a collective power force in Oshiomole, Osinbajo, Osoba as well as Tinubu and expect to win.

Amosun will get badly burnt.

You think Amosun's meetings with Obasanjo has bn for nothing? He would rather GNI wins than someone ruling Ogun through proxy from Lagos.

Provided Buhari returns elected, Amosun won't get burnt one bit. If i may ask, tell me who can stop Amosun from winning his Senatorial Seat? Is it Titi Oseni of ADC or Amusan of PDP? The 2 merged together are no match for him...okay let say peradventure Amosun loses his Senatorial bid, a Ministerial appointment awaits him.

The only way he would get burnt is if Buhari loses, and Akinlade also loses and he also loses his Senatorial ticket...for as long as Buhari is in d picture, d coalition of Oshiomole, Osinbajo, Osoba, and Tinubu can't hurt him; at least not until after 4 years.

And do u know why Amosun has an advantage over Oshiomole, Osinbajo, Osoba and Tinubu? Amosun will be throwing all he's got into d 2019 election in Ogun without any distractions (who knows; even Buhari's backing)...As for Oshiomole, he will be focusing more on his State which still has a strong opposition (PDP), and d Igbinadions and others would do all they can to reduce Oshiomole's influence in Edo; considering how he has ridiculed them over d years.

As for Tinubu, his grip has never bn this threatened as it was in 2015, and 2019 could be worse for him if care is not taken...he needs all he's got to make sure PDP doesn't have close to d success it achieved in 2015; a situation which made APC lose some legislative seats across board in Lagos.

Osinbajo? Don't even go there...The VP is not a politician and doesn't know how d game is played...he is loved no doubt...but grassroots politics is a different ball game...Moreover, he's a registered voter in Lagos and won't even be on ground in Ogun on d election days. Can he even defeat the likes of Adebutu and Kashamu in Ogun East alone?

As for Akirogun Osoba, baba is almost finished politically...his 2015 defeat across board when he moved his people to SDP is a testimony to this...baba is banking on Federal might to win (something that might not come)...even his son, Olumide has a slim chance against Kazeem (a current HOR member and APM's candidate)...and if he fails to win his own son d HOR ticket on Feb 14 like he did in 2015, how will he then be able to win someone a guber seat.

Moreover, the Nigerian Army will be more focused in fighting insurgencies across d country and the ones left would only be deployed to volatile places like Kano, Cross River, Lagos, Kwara etc...everyone will most likely focus on his own State, except for the battlegrounds which determines elections in the country.

I am not God and might be wrong, but as a mortal and someone who has bn understudying d political drama in d SW since 1999, i really don't see how Dapo will win. HE can't win Ogun East, he can't win his LG, the Ogun West people can't leave their 2 sons to vote someone who wants to deprive them of governing d State for the 1st time, Ogun Central is Amosun's strong hold...Even Abiodun knows he can't do it without Amosun's support.


At the end of the day, d electorates decides...and with d look of things, GNI is d most popular of them all...but will he be able to nick it? time will tell.

Houseofglam7:
Where’s the governor?
I see a woman, her husband and a court jester

Buhahahaha

Gov Obiano looks like Chiwetalu Agu to me...What kinda outfit is that

airsaylongcon:
Ah! GNI is a formidable force o! He wanted to succeed OGD I believe.

His major problem is warchest and political machinery...d 2 he lacks seriously when compared with his competitors...but with d imbroglio in d 2 leading parties...he might just win it with a slim margin.

segunwilly:
Also, some APM members have gone to town to remind the electorate on how Abiodun allegedly withdrew electric transformers he donated to some communities in Ogun East Senatorial District after losing the election to the PDP candidate, Senator Buruji Kashamu in 2015.

https://guardian.ng/politics/amosuns-journey-from-state-of-confusion-to-desperation/

How can someone stoop so low...as in, who does that? You lost an election and then withdrew d transformers u gave to communities and d vehicles u gave to people...now, that's an all time low

And people want such a person to be their Gov because they hate Amosun? It shows he's a businessman who is into politics to make money, as serving does not rank high in his ambition.

Like i have always said, though i am for Akinlade, but i really don't care if GNI wins it...as far as it is an Ogun West person...I will be very happy.

They know their people, they are just trying to prevent bloodshed that could arise after d election...a times those who know (like we've had in Nigeria in recent history) they are losing an election are fond of posting fake results online...and if at d end of d day d real winner is announced...those who believed they were winning would think d election was rigged against their candidate...after which hell is let loose...no matter how we look at it, some people are not just not ready for d kind of democracy they practice in countries with civilised citizens; people who don't just believe what they read online but make their own findings to verify its authenticity b4 reacting.

timmykaydude:
is Gotv showing it?

Nah...DSTV did Supersport 3

gwine0047:
sorry, sir. Take cold somtin

Thank u ojare

But seriously, i like it that we are chopping dis beating very close to d transfer market...it will spur d management to spend and beef up d team in d transfer market in January...this defense has always bn a disaster waiting to happen...it would have bn suicidal if we managed to grind out results and have dis false impression dat we have arrived and then go thru d season with dis porous defense...goalkeeper sef, we never get.

I think another 8-2 is loading

Where will Arsenal get d 2nd goal sef.


There is no way i am sitting around to watch this assault on Arsenal...make i tune to African Magic Yoruba abeg...I no fit come get apollo...over and out...

Of all the big teams in the world, Arsenal has d worst defense...a very sh*tty one

You mean step baby mum?

lilmax:
you can get a serving senator but not a serving governor

because a sitting Governor has an immunity clause which makes him untouchable according to the Nigerian Constitution, while a Senator can be arrested if found guilty of committing any crime.

Now let's look at it critically, there is nothing any government agency can do about Ganduje's case because he's covered by immunity (d same thing that covered Fayose while in office), only Kano State House of Assembly in conjunction with the State's Chief Judge can issue a probe into it, if found guilty, he 's then impeached... after which d EFCC can come in to prosecute him...all these privileges, a sitting Senator doesn't have.

Justice310:
Stop saying crap, boko haram operates on thier own. I believe there is an aggrement between both parties which buhari on his side failed to keep. Now that the electon is around the corner, the big boys want thier share for a peaceful election, but bubu isn't ready to comply.

Don't start what you can't finish.

I won't stoop to ur level...but for d records, i am not trying to take sides...i am just frowning at d dangerous trend which could become d norm close to elections in Nigeria if care is not taken.

Nigeria is walking on d edge of an nonredeemable collapse and nobody seems to care much...why is it that these killings intensifies when election is near...same thing happened towards d last election...how can people be using people's lives to play political game

austinsmat:
OkoroHausa see your life, Apga gives you life to become a governor, you stab them in the back,because of your greedy ambition, now karma is a bitch.

The party would be shooting itself in d foot if it takes such a step...they can't risk not having d majority in d Senate next year...the party has already lost 3 seats in Zamfara...losing 2 more is suicidal...plus Buhari won't just allow it.


I might be wrong though...because Oshiomole actions since these primaries kicked off has bn dat of someone who is either under a spell or purposely working against d reelection of Buhari.