₦airaland Forum

Roland17:
I swear! Helpless innocent kids....We have become a country of "Do Nothing" when it comes to this issues.

You have a good heart bro. You are always touched by other humans tragedies

donstan18:
Izzou: Reads and jumps out saying, all IPOB are igbos, but all Igbos are not IPOB.

Roland17:
Another disgraceful mass shooting (15 total deaths, kids are being treated for gunshot injuries at a level 1 children's hospital in neighboring San Antonio), this time an Elementary School in small town Uvalde TX! I swear I am done!

I know. The little ones are the most painful. That guy should burn in hell

raumdeuter:
School shooting

I don't see anything Congress can do, except Texas Congress

benalvino3:
I said election is coming so expect the mass shootings

MASS SHOOTING AT TX ELEMENTARY SCHOOL:

• Multiple children killed, per KSAT News
• Hospital “caring for several students”
• Scene remains active
• Suspect in custody

I guess the Dems paid someone to jeopardise their freedom? Sick fellow

Roland17:
SHAME ON CONGRESS!

SHAME ON ALL OF THEM!!!!

I AM BEYOND FRUSTRATED AT THIS POINT

What happened

Havertz10:
people with kids get lower mortgage rates, you can also get mortgages that will allow you to share a flat in Russia, so many differences

Overall Cost is the main thing, I don’t care what percentage difference you start with 1% or 89% if the price of property is relatively fair, you are getting a good deal, in America you can’t even get a decent house for less than 300k meanwhile in Russia you will get one for less than 100k

It doesn't matter if Russians buy house for $400k or $100k, the fact is that their percentage payments went up overnight from 7% to 20% (then 17%) meaning a massive change in their outgoings and standards of living, while Americans went from 0 to 0.5% which Fed said they will be increasing coming out of Covid.

The laws of compounding are the same everywhere.

Let's run a 30 year mortgage for an American with $400k mortgage on 0.5% Vs a Russian with $100k mortgage at 17% and see who will pay more. This is using each countries exact interest rate, ignoring bank profit.

Mathematics never lies.

Havertz10:
American mortgage system and the Russian system are very different, it’s telling that despite having higher rates than America, there are more homeless people in America, and sadly most have jobs but can’t afford a home

There is nothing different about mortgages from country to country Oga. Interest rate and compounding work the same from Timbuktu to Mars

The mortgage you will pay anywhere is your countries interest rate plus a few percentage profit for the bank.

So Russians will be paying 20% or thereabouts while Westerners will be paying 4% and below.

5% interest rates is the point at which Housing markets start to crash in the West. That's when homebuilders start selling their inventory at up to a 30% discount because they all factor in at least 30% margin when they build their houses, and they are the ones who cause Housing crashes because the average Joe Bloggs will never want to sell a house for less than he bought it. Highest he will live there or rent it out till market picks up again when interest rate goes down.

You are right that a 0.5% increase in interest rate can add say £100 to £200 to a monthly bill especially if it's a long-term mortgage. Any mortgage calculator will tell you that. That's the compounding effect of a large principle over many years. So spare a thought for the Russians on 20%, which is why the difference in monthly payments between the 3% American example I gave, and the 20% Russian example was nearly £6,000.

And finally, numbers tell everything. The moment we saw 17% interest rate in Russia, we knew the devastating effect on the economy. You can apply that same 17% to Business loans that drive economic activity. That's a devastating cost of Capital for any business, but it will take examples such as the mortgage example to really bring it home to you, while you are focussed on value of Ruble. In essence what that interest rate tells us is that companies will no longer engage in expansionary activities, people will no longer buy homes etc because there is no guarantee of return on that cost of borrowing.

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
4rm senator to house of reps a whole almighty SDM? yet he failed.



dude shld be take a role in nollywood....wit his exotic super cars he fit d role of rich village uncle grabbing his community land.


modified- he contested the pdp senatorial ticket.

Not forgetting he ran for Governor last election

Havertz10:
why am i sensing hostility what has Russia housing industry got to do with American interest rate dynamics, I expect so much better from you, you even suggested physical violence after stating that guy you make me laugh, last I checked there are more homeless people in America than Russia

If only 0.5% increase can trigger 3x increase in mortgages, that isn’t a good sign at all

lol.

I'm sure you don't know how mortgages work, which is why I told you to stick to what you've experienced and stop trying to put yourself in the shoes of what you read.

How can a 0.5% increase in interest rate lead to 3x on mortgages.

A bank will charge you the countries interest rate plus 1 or 2%. The additional 1 or 2% is the banks profit. So you borrow from bank, bank borrows the same money from CBN and passes on a 1 or 2% uplift.

You can enter mortgage calculator into Google. Let's say US interest rate is 0.5%, the bank will give you circa 3% mortgage which includes their own profit. 1st pic shows you will pay £665k over 20 years to satisfy a £500k mortgage in USA.

If I'm a Russian looking for the same mortgage, I will pay around 20% interest (17% Russia interest rate plus 3% profit for the bank). Same exact deal in Russia and I will pay over £2m to buy the same house over the life of the mortgage as the 2nd picture shows. Monthly payments of £2.7k in USA now become £8.4k in Russia.

Russian houses matter! I will leave you to imagine the impact on their Housing market. But no, na USA 0.5% interest rate concern you pass, not Russia 17% interest rate

I challenge you to pull up any stats on Russian housing market since the war. They have stopped publishing economic indices entirely. A proud person usually hides when they are hurting badly. That's Russia. But because US is open and democratic with a free media that will discuss every small change in data openly, you have a wrong sense of proportionality.

benalvino3:
and begging others to pollute the climate instead of you doing the pollution your self because the result is the same regardless of who is polluting

I agree with this. I see no sense in blocking your own oil production because someone else will just fill the gap. However that doesn't mean Dems are blocking anything. Obama signed into law shale exploration and fracking and that is what led to the shale revolution and a boom in US production.

basilico:
Ibime. Are you stupid. He wants to import oil from Venezuela. He has asked OPEC to increase output . Saudi prince refused to pick his telco
On his first day in office he stopped the Keystone XL pipeline which was pumping in oil from Canada.
He blocked lease explorations too.
Under Trump America was a net energy exporter. Under Biden America is a net energy importer

Mumu, the Venezuela and OPEC is for Europe. The 1m barrels per day from strategic reserves is to control the price and also give Europe assurance so they can be bolder in their approach to Russia.

I'm sure Budaatum has already schooled you on how oil wells are closed depending on whether the price makes a well profitable or not. Oil dropped to negative price during the pandemic (you had to pay wholesalers to store oil) and a lot of wells got taken out of rotation. That's why oil production dropped, but they are ramping back up. Keep shouting Trump. First pic is oil price, 2nd pic is US production output

benalvino3:
and that does not change what i said. he is a fool and if you don't think he is a fool then i feel for you.
the Reserves is for emmergencies. War, Natural Disaster.
Biden stopped production of oil so to fight climate Change then went on to Use Oil reserve

Why cut the production of oil only to resort to the reserves. Na you be fool for not seeing how stupid biden is.

You should have raised this at the time of the announcement of using strategic reserves but you were obviously not following events. Stay up to date and stop commenting like a JJC.

I take your point about climate change though, but if you were up to speed, you would have raised this over a month ago, not criticising anything you see as and when it appears to you. If using the reserves was stupid, your people would have raised hell about it.

benalvino3:
Biden is slowly destroying the nation

the United States announces sales of 40.1 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Not even half is tenor yet

I guess you were under a rock when he announced over a month ago that he will release 100m barrels - 1m a day to help cushion the price of crude, from the stock of 1bln barrels. To be foolish is one thing, to be foolish and not know it is another. The strategic reserve is for times of war like this.

raumdeuter:
I am sure somewhere inside his cabinet he is seeing the mega clusterfuck the war has turned out into and they should give him something to save face. He might also be dealing with some hardliners in the Kremlin who would be pushing him to die there for National pride and stuff

And it might be better to have a known madman like Putin than another unhinged person we don't even know about

Russia cannot fight forever nor can sustain this for ever they need a way out

I don't think he's that mad. If he was he would have flattened Kyiv with non-nuclear missiles, civilians and all, and not care about the international condemnation. Baba still wants Russia to play in the International markets. And I don't think there are many hardliners that will make it worse either, except a very selfish person only interested in their pocket who doesn't care about the economic fate of the country. Most of those guys will want their money, properties and freedom of travel back.

raumdeuter:
ibime what do you think about this from Henry Kissinger. I dont support Ukraine giving up land but I also support the West not humiliating Putin



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kissinger-says-ukraine-must-give-up-land-to-russia-warns-west-not-to-seek-to-humiliate-putin-with-defeat/ar-AAXEsjW?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=62ed23aa6f7743338919062b4a537689

They have to give him an out that he can sell to his people in order to exit the war eg. Guaranteed non-NATO status for Ukraine while giving Ukraine EU membership, maybe even a referendum on Crimea or even Donetsk. It's a fact he won't leave till he has something to save face. At the same time, he is also ready to end it if given an out, he has been practically asking for one in not so many words. See how he quickly accepted Finland and Sweden joining NATO. First he needs to prepare his people's mind on those outcomes being a victory for Russia.

raumdeuter:
This is the city they said wasnt struggling to make top 4 before Pep

City were neck and neck at the top of the table when Pep signing was announced in January. After that Pellegrini went to the beach and so did his players

Havertz10:
People can no longer afford to buy houses and these aren’t even direct purchases but mortgages

How many basis point increase in interest rate caused this again? Imagine if they truly went after inflation and increased it to 20%


For those that don’t get, a basis point is less than a percent, for some context American central bank recently increased interest rates to 50 basis point, what it really means is 0.5% and people can’t afford 30 year mortgages and remember that this was done to fight inflation that is pushing 21%, they have given up on fighting inflation, they wouldn’t admit it but only a fool will believe that inflation in America will ever return to less than 5%

Yet ibime is telling us that they can buy their way out of the tsunami of hyperinflation that is on its way

Sales of new homes and cancellations rates are rising simply because of 0.5% increase in interest rates

Oga worry about price of bread, not what you read and haven't experienced. We have been in zero interest rate for 2 years since Covid and seen 30% plus capital appreciation in that time. It's normal for people to buy at zero percent and cool down with interest rate rise. That's how the housing market and every other market moves. Covid is why we dropped interest rate to zero, and now Covid is gone, we will be going back up toward 3% which is normal course of business. House prices may also fall slightly or stagnate as usually happens when interest rates go up. You are worried about US interest rate at 0.5%, not Russias at 17%. I guess Russians don't need houses. You need a good slap.

A builder just left my house now after giving me quote on this extension, while you are typing about housing market. Worry about Putin blocking wheat and impact on Agege bread.

raumdeuter:
My man Larride
What course and certification person fit take to be delegate.
I dey reason relocate to Naija to become election delegate
Any advice will be appreciated

From next week, add Sir before you quote larride name please

Itsrm:
Nawa o

That one go be like 50m per delegate.

Na wetin interesting for primaries be that, seeing how far these politicians are willing to go to buy Nigeria

If delegates for Kaduna House of Assembly could receive N2M each from one candidate, then delegates at the Presidential primaries should prepare for a huge bonanza next week.


https://www.nairaland.com/7142691/adam-namadi-asks-delegates-return#113127640

lordfalcao:
Chelsea are now open to sell Hakim Ziyech in case they will receive an important proposal. � #CFC

Marcos Alonso will leave with Barça still leading the race - talks soon with N’Golo Kanté to discuss his contract situation, Jorginho’s waiting too.

Romano..

Oga which club is Lacazette heading to this summer?

Singapore1:
dollar is actually performing better than any currency right now.

I am also with havertz10 on this one and i don't think Russia is going to be significantly affected as expected. Europe is still buying Russia oil and they are making money, except they find a way to cut Russia off totally, then they are just indirectly funding the war which doesn't make sense imo

Don't forget US companies are also buying ruble's future. I think the greediness of western companies is going to make this go on and on

The good thing about speculators is they speed up price discovery. So the same way they flattened Ruble in one day (which was overexagerated) is the same way they will flatten it again in quick time if capital controls are lifted at once. Russia will have to lift them slowly one-by-one over a long period. You will be surprised if Ruble start to behave like something Do Kwon put together if kasala bust.

Havertz10:
west can’t stomach shit, they are battling inflation, the government used the military to import baby food, it’s getting really bad, stomach it fire, Americans are wailing everyday on twitter about gas and this guy is talking about stomach

The baby food is because their largest manufacturer shut down their production facility after 3 babies dies from bacterial poisoning. But of course anything is convenient for Russian propaganda. Even Covid supply chain effects is ascribed to Russia. Like how someone said Russia is affecting price of chicken wings, not the fact that there has been a shortage of Chicken wings since last year due to the fact it has more processing need and production staff have been taken out the production line due to Omicron. I was watching Katt Williams Netflix special at the weekend and he was joking that how is there a surplus of chicken thighs but a shortage of Chicken wings. Abi don't they come from the same chicken, or do some chickens grow 4 wings and two thighs. Maybe Russia seized the chickens, sent the thighs to America and withheld the wings.

Havertz10:
You make me laugh, the same you that said that Russian economy is less than apple, is the same one that is saying that 80% of the earnings by Russia companies is strong enough to pull down the dollar

Dollar isn't being pulled down. Dollar is gaining in strength and should be the third best performing currency in the world this year. Last year I often exchange £1 for 1.40, now I exchange for $1.23, and I exchange almost every month. Which tells you dollar is still the choice of capital flight. Ruble is the one being artificially propped up, not by free choice of capital flight, but by forced coercion of Russian companies, a form of self cannibalisation. So once again, dollar is only strengthened by conflict and represents the peoples will. Below is dollar to Yen.

Nigeria can achieve a similar effect as Russia by forcing MTN, Etisalat, Dangote, Shell etc to convert everything to Naira. Either Emefiele is stupid or he is wise.

Havertz10:
If you like follow ibime and be eating msm propaganda

Bread prices are going to rise for the poor in Nigeria, less bread for your money, all because you chose to chase American dollar instead of a better future, open your eyes people

https://qz.com/africa/2139160/how-will-the-russia-ukraine-war-affect-bread-prices-in-nigeria/amp/

No, all because they chose to support a foreign invasion that the West can stomach but they can't. Putin is the one blockading Ukraine wheat shipments, while America is the one trying to get it to the market. I told larride Nigeria will be the one to suffer but he insisted we will starve here.

Havertz10:
Ibime you disappoint me, everything is built on of demand and supply

If you have more demand, than supply then prices become expensive, and if you have more supply and less demand prices will drop

Its very simple

Russia simply said that if you want our products, pay for it in our currency, because they have products that are valuable to the world, there was significant demand on their currency causing an appreciation, how is that fake or propped up, I have explained this thing multiple times, Russian are very isolated, they only like expensive western things, basic commodities are locally made, making them largely self sufficient

Oga stop your propaganda. Like I told you Russian companies were already mandated to convert 80% of their earnings to Ruble.

If I was to pay Gazprom £1k before, they would still have to convert £800 to Rubles. Now they have to convert £1k to Rubles.

They will still need to reconvert a small percentage of that £1k back into pounds to oil their operations abroad so it's almost a fait accompli with minimal effect.

The material effect on Ruble growth is simply a 30% tax on currency conversion, Central Bank foreign exchange propping up ruble, banning foreign entities from converting ruble, forcing all Russian companies to convert to Ruble, banning selling of Russian shares (which are sold into dollars), lack of importer demand for dollars due to sanctions on importing, and restriction of Ruble trading virtually everywhere outside the MOEX. It's just a propaganda piece at this point which will unravel itself when capital controls are relaxed.

Havertz10:
American inflation skewing the metrics, this is the milkshake theory at play, those metrics change their dynamics, if we replace the dollar with another currency with intrinsic demand values

Then large countries will pay the price, that’s the global inflation that Africa and the global south have been subsidizing for decades, I told you that Russia will change the game, you called it nothing, they are competent people in charge there not buffoons, if Nigeria can pivot to china and Russia, the benefits are endless

Russia will use their commodities based valuation to trigger inflations and unrest in the west, the drama has only just began

How is America inflating the GDP of the world? You have come again. Is America responsible for Egypt or South Africa GDP increasing? GDP increases as production, farming etc becomes efficient and population expands, creating value that didn't exist before. A commodity we dig from the ground like gold can never account for the wealth of the world that has been created in the last 150 years by industrialisation. Save neanderthal ideas for the Roman empire. Gold itself has little utility except the value that we humans give it as a store of value. It is no different from cowries that we held as a store of value before. There are many other metals more useful in production processes, so we humans are the ones that gave it its value, and we can also take its value away like we did to cowries.

On your second point, na democracy make you believe the West is anywhere close to suffering. It is normal in any democracy for any increase in inflation to become the talking point. All opposition need is to grab votes from the 10% poorest of population for whom £100 increase across the month makes a difference. Of course you won't hear of this in Russia whose inflation is more than double the West but don't have an opposition nor any independent media to make it into an issue. It doesn't mean anybody in the West is suffering or in danger. Imagine a nigga with a weekly shopping bill of £100, now paying £110, maybe paying an extra £20 per week for fuel and another £30 for electricity. Same nigga saving maybe £1k to £5k a month, do you think he is in danger?

Like I told you and larride, who is in danger is the third world. Make una go beg Putin. Why should I care that my 30 pence bag of pasta is now 40 pence, or my 40 pence bread is now 45 pence? You done confirm am below who is in danger. BTW 90% of Russia and Ukraines wheat export goes to the Middle-East. Let's say they can't get their supply, they will then go to India or US and outbid Africa for the wheat they need. Las las na the poor go suffer while shouting "Up Russia".

Havertz10:
no export indeed, Nigeria buys wheat from Russia, turkey buys wheat from Russia, thanks to Nigeria position as being ass lickers of the west, you wouldn’t get discounts for wheat, fertilizer and other essential commodities, keep dreaming that the ruble isn’t valuable, that exchange rate means that wheat imports into Nigeria will become very expensive soon and you will pay more for bread

Kimbeast:
Russia reported a budget deficit in April, VAT collection is down TWO THIRDS, 63% of their budget income was from oil and gas exports vs 28% in 2020 while military expenses have more than doubled.

If anyone thinks that the current exchange rate is real then he definitely is not sane.

Oga let the naive keep deluding themselves.

If CBN can tell us dollar is N400, then anyone can fool themselves.

When all Russian companies are forced to convert their foreign exchange earnings to Rubles, you get 30% tax for converting any currency to Rubles, you can't sell your shares in order not to convert Rubles to foreign exchange. It will be epic when these controls are lifted and Russia returns to normality. We go dey here. A big company that needs dollars to import will go to their CBN for the subsidised rate while the small company will go to black market for the real rate. Roundtripping subsidised by their CBN, bleeding money and creating inefficiencies. I'm not seeing much difference from Nigeria at this point. Dangote gets what he needs to trade internationally while everyone else go to Aboki.

Feel for a mid-size Russian company earning foreign exchange which is 30% less than it was when converted to Ruble. They then need to pay 30% tax to convert to Ruble, then need to pay their workers in Ruble which is 30% more expensive.

Dem go drink oil. As you have rightly pointed out, their revenues is showing signs of converting to a mono-economy. From 28% oil Revenues to 68%.

None of these are new economic tools, they have been tried and tested and failed. We go dey here. After all Soviet Union maintained peg and Abacha maintained peg through his whole tenure. I hope Havertz will be here for the reckoning. An economy the size of Portugal going to trade war with the West. Only a child will think it ends well.

Havertz10, gold marketcap is less than $12trillion

The world economy is worth $85trillion

How do you want to peg the worth of the world economy to gold. There is not enough gold to capture the value of everything if it needed to be traded. That's why gold was dropped. Maybe small island countries can back fully with gold, not large ones.

Kimbeast:
Stop focusing on short term. The ruble can't be traded right now so it doesn't matter what it's worth on paper. This doesn't accomplish anything for the Russian government.

Leave that one

raumdeuter:
He's the first manager to spend 300M to finish top 5

Do you remember another one cos I have been trying to since

No matter how.much you repeat this lie, it will never make it true. Because Comte sat in several press conferences and told the journalists to ask the club about transfers, that he's not involved. Only compensation stopped Comte from resigning that year. Most of our transfer decisions came from the brain of an American woman.