₦airaland Forum

Seems this was the guy gunned down by the SSS in Kano before he could wreck havoc. Nice one.

And why do Biafrans keep assuming that the South South is a part of their territory??

AjanleKoko:
I think, IMHO, the military should take over.

It's easy to single out GEJ today, and express shock at BH's doings. However, what we have been seeing in Nigeria since 1999 has been the gradual breakdown of law, order, and security in the nation, no thanks to the political class.

From OPC and Tinubu's hired thugs, Nnamani's Bakassi Boys and Okija Shrine, ND militants, Egbesu boys, Zak-Zaky, Jos crisis, and now BH. It has been the same gradual pattern. The politicians bring in arms, arm their thugs and bludgeon their way to power. Nigeria is now so heavy in small arms that it is becoming impossible to police. Police by the way remain emasculated by the state, and remain only an extortionist outfit, only good at random murders and bribe-collecting.

Arms are flowing like water into the country on a daily basis. Now, other nations like Ghana and the UK are the ones apprehending smuggled arms destined for Nigeria. Government has no answer to any of this. Of course they know who's behind all of this, but in the murky waters of Nigerian politics, they can't lift a finger.

The political class have rode on the back of ethnic and religious sentiments to power and wealth. Now, in doing so, they've unleashed a genie that they are unable to tame, and it's back to bite them in the behind.

It's time for a military dictator once again. It's either that or total anarchy. Obviously the politicians can't solve the problem they created.

If the military takes over, it begins the very same cycle we've seen before already. Democracy-Military-Democracy.

What I'm saying is that the military can't rule us forever should they take over, and when they pass on powers to a civilian govt we are going to have the same problems that we face today.

Our problems basically stem from the forced Federal system we currently practice. This is what has led to the "National Cake" that everyone wants to be a part of. I believe if the various regions had to source for most of their income, we won't have the problems we have. Concentration of power would be in the regions and the federal govt wouldn't be soo attractive. This is our major problem. Too many people chasing after their own financial gains or self interests at a power concentrated center.

If the military does take over, we would need some form of transition into an autocratic government with regular regime transitions. Something like what China practices, communism,capitalism,etc etc, we should create our own mix.

And then find something to do with all these rich criminals that have bled our country to death.

Nice one. THese guys should have rallied around Android, instead of going with QNX and then trying to support Android apps through their Android player, That's just beating the bush. There's nothing too special about the BBOS and they could have continued with their quality hardware products and popular software offerings running on Android. Anyways, would love to see the direction the new guy takes.

[quote author=Negro_Ntns link=topic=851466.msg10025767#msg10025767 date=1327284364]Good perspective on many of the things you said. On the above, that will never happen! I say this because you cannot treat these issues in isolation of the other. . . .they are all a dynamics!

Consider for instance Gej's response and tolerance for the October 1st bombing. He defended, instead of dismissing MEND, after they claimed ownership of the carnage. Then also consider that Zakari Biu, the man accused of ennabling Kabiru Sokoto's escape, lost his son to this carnage funded and executed by MEND. So if MEND enjoys a silent approval from the President, how can you expect the Northern elites to come out and with one voice dismiss and discredit boko?

So Gej, whatever headache he is having over boko, is a co-contributor to the general break down of law and order in the country, not that he sleeps with boko. . . . but the fact that he is in bed with MEND. When he dissociates and condemn MEND, per chance the Northerner can be persuaded to do same with boko.[/quote]one thing i have noticed is that gej seems to run a reaction based govt rather than a process based govt. I bet in his head and within his govt he doesn't have fixed template responses to various possible scenariors. And this is his achelles heel. No one can predict his reactions and from his initial handling of MEND by supporting their cause and absolving them of blame on the Oct 1st bombings.

We've had violent groups that have so far restricted themselves to the SS and core North.

Could there be another in the making to see anarchy in the entire country?

GEJ desperately needs to be more aggressive in the coming months.

Let me also add that there's a psychological war also going on.

Kudos to the Police, Army and SSS cause I believe the bombings were done to cripple/reduce the number of arrests and general progress the security forces have been making in their investigations. This is why BH shared flyers in Kano so as to get more sympatizers which in turn would lead to more foot soldiers and more funding.

What is the government doing about things from a psychological angle? Nothing that I know of.

One thing GEJ can do is to come out, write all traditional rulers, past Northern rulers and policymakers from that side to within 30 days issue a press statement denouncing Boko Haram. Let us have the Northern Governors Forum, Traditional Rulers, Arewa etc issue joint statements and even live conferences denouncing Boko Haram.

Let them run adverts on all NTA stations in the North speaking against BH. Get the most respected islamic scholars to speak against Boko Haram.

This thing is very simple. Kings in the medieval ages used this to much success. Once you begin to weigh on traitors to denounce their activites you begin to notice cracks and from there you'd fish out the bad elements.

I also think the SSS should also step up wire taps on political office holders, traditional rulers and basically everyone with "levels".

I think with my suggestion, much of the North would rally against BH and they would any form of popularity/appeal/sympathy they presently have to the almajiris and fundamental northern islamists.

I also think GEJS stance on a corruption free environment, and his general line of thinking as the CiC to refrain from interfering with the other arms of govt is a problem.

If he knows he can't assasinate the bad elements (2. And 3) as indicated by the OP, why can't he come up with some sort of legislation to give the EFCC powers to seize assets without going to court. Assets of present and past political office holders I mean. This way these guys would be divided. They'd concentrate on retrieving their assets through the courts, and it would be given bak to dem if its proven such seized assets were acquired through legimate means. This is one way to fight back @ 2 and 3 without too much gra gra.

GEJ remains scared and I'm afraid he's too friendly to rule this nation correctly.

I'm still trying to wrap my heads around who gains from the BH menace actually. Could it be that the North wants the Army to take over? Or they just want a state of anachy for the Southern President?

Could it be Southern elements blackmailing the North by bombin them to turn the hearts and minds of the average Nigerian citizen away from the North, thereby alienating them politically and socially?

Or could it be an alliance backed by foreigners to see the country divided? There's a lot of possible scenarios to come up with about this BH boys. What I do know is that the North has liTtle to gain from it. They are setting themselves backwards by many years by scaring away foreign investment from the south and actual foreigners as well as giving themselves a bad name in the eyes of the world.

As it is nobody from the North will win the next 2015 elections. This is further what makes it tricky. If they know that bombings in the North and killing southerners will end up turning the hearts of Nigerians against them, why do it in the first place?

My thoughts are that the way things stand as of now, a southerner will likely win the next elections unless -

1. A northerner wins the PDP primaries
2. The ACN and CPC come together and elect a Northerner candidate

If a southerner wins, then there'd be a huge problem. For the first time, the North would be relegated to the background and they won't be happy about this. Hence we can expect more bombings and killing of southerners.

If a Northerner wins, we'd have peace and tranquility in Nigeria, except maybe in the SS where the militants will want to reciprocate by occupying their resources.

My best scenario would be that someone from the ACN and/or CPC should win the next elections. This will automatically relegate most of the elements in 2 and 3. It will also ensure that fresh faces come to the forefront of running the aFfairs of the country as we know it.

Lastly, I have always said and continue to say that Nigeria can't practice a full-fledge democracy. We aren't ready for it because we aren't even a federation in the true sense of the word. So the beginning GEJ begins to bully people here and there to get things moving, the better for him. Let him bribe who his has to bribe to get the right laws passed, assasinate or send on forced exile whoever he has to. This is how to run the country for now.

Typed all this on my phone so sorry for the typos.

Truth is GEJ knows the BH sponsors. I believe the SSS is prolly the best security agency we have and as a staff there has told me in the past, the problem is usually not with finding out who's behind criminal acts, but what next to do after finding out. Simply put, the SSS may not have concrete evidence but they have people who are suspects and are currently under survellance. These people are the Govs, ex-govs and ministers of the society. The highly placed individuals and traditional rulers.

The problem GEJ is currently facing is purely a political one. He doesn't have the political might to act as needed. Either due to fear of destabilizing the polity, or not being 100% sure that those around him are fully behind him.

This is where GEJ needs his own cabal. Made up of trusted army, SSS and political minds to help him trash him out. Jonathan is currently running a "paddy paddy I'm smiling with everybody" style of government and it doesn't have to be so.

Issues of terrorism are national security issues and GEJs present stance on rule of law, seperation of powers is bullocks as far as BH and the present Nigeria are concerned. GEJ won't remove the IGP until the Minister of Police Affairs and the Police Service Commission recommend or support such actions. This is GEJs line of thinking according to what I've seen so far.

What he fails to understand is that you can't continue to play with snakes and expect not to get bitten.

Sounds good but would never work. Why? A foreigner doesn't know how our NPF works (the system).

The NPF is a large bowl of corruption, indiscipline and inefficiency. The problem of the police is mostly as a result of a system that breeds on these three things.

First of all, there's ZERO for intellectualism in the NPF. Graduates are recruited and I guess when they are they join the ranks like everybody else. This is wrong.

2nd. The NPF has really poor training schools. Unlike the NDA. The police training schools are rubbish. Recruits are made to buy their Uniforms and other materials despite the monies being budgeted for.

3rdly. The NPF never trickles down to the grassroots. A DPO once told me this. The budget hangs @ some level above the individual police stations. All the DPO can do is write letters, beg and beg.

What do they do to solve their financial problems? Stand on the streets. Besides salaries police stations are majorly underfunded. When was the last time we saw a station being refurbished. Etc. Etc. Most monies @ the grassroots comes from donations, bribery and corrupt practices. Whereas it shouldn't be so. If they simply stop collect these monies then they can't fuel their vehicles and do whatever they have to do.

4. The NPF isn't rewarding. Promotions are unpredictable, highly politicized and all what not. In the army @ least it gets to the stage of Major before promotions become based on who you know. That is if you go school o.

5. The NPF has officers with ZERO loyalty to the force. Espirit de Corps means nothing to them. This is what our Armed Forces are largely better behaved, trained, dressed, and rewarded. No matter the level of corruption in the army or navy or air force, it will never be as bad as that of the Police because they belive in themselves and in their system. An army will always have the respect of his mates anywhere he goes.

6. The NPF has no checks and balances. On a financial, process-based level, there's nobody carrying out audits or checking for wrongdoing anywhere.

I belive if we have a way to solve 1 - 6, we'd have a much better Police Force capable of protecting civillians. Not the criminals in black clothing that we have today.

I think Yoruba people somehow have managed to stay above religious beef as we have it with some other tribes.

Whether or not Fashola is a muslim or not isn't important. What is is that the average Yoruba doesn't care. When we vote, we don't vote based on religion.

Another thing is that most Yoruba muslim families have lots of xtian family members and vice versa. Fasholas wife is Xtian. This is the kind of tolerance that is present in Yorubaland. I guess another important fact is that nobody seeks to convert anybody to any religion. If your a muslim or Xtian, its eida cause dats d way it is in your family or you chose one of both @ some point in your life.

Religion is basically looked @ from a family to family angle and not from a community or tribal aspect of things.

This doesn't mean Yorubas are more superior than any other tribes, but that's just the way we are. Tolerant people.

4 Nov 2011: The motorcade of Borno State governor Kashim Shettima comes under BH bomb attack in Maiduguri on its way from the airport to the governor’s residence as he returns from a trip to Abuja. Around 150 are killed in coordinated BH bombing and shooting attacks on police facilities in Damaturu and Potiskum in Yobe State. Two BH suicide-bombers blow themselves up outside the military Joint Task Force headquarters in Maiduguri in a botched suicide attack.

Does this absolve the present Borno governor of being a sponsor?, na wa o. Tot the guy was in bed with them.

Raxxye:
I also want to ask where u saw it and the proof that it was actually the accused tribe(Berom) that ate, and indeed that the people eaten were Hausa/Fulanis. This is an attempt at inciting hatred against this minority tribe and a possible genocide. That these fools even claim christians eat humans should tell anyone that it‘s just a cheap propaganda emanating from  violent-minded illiterates.

Someone posted links to a Youtube video. Please watch that. It doesn't prove that the Cannibals are actually Berom, but they are clearly of southern origin (from their accent) and there's clearly a dead body they hack from time to time with pieces of flesh in peoples hands. Of course no won knows if its a muslim or not, but who do you think?

zumbigbo:
This is what BOKO PDP are referring about.

One of a couple of videos circulating freely re : Birom flesh eating.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3GKm8ik4_o

This is disturbing. As a country I now know we have a huge problem on our hands. These guys were eating human flesh in full-view of police officers. People will always retaliate one form or the other.

I no longer think Nigeria the way it is can ever work.

Is this still available?

Is this still available?

@efisher,

Do you think the supposed shortfall comes from Kerosene subsidy?

I suspect so. As the analysis left out that part and am not sure the govt specified the subsidies given as being just for petrol.

@ibime,

You can't realistically hoard petrol for a year. Too many reasons to consider. For one, nearly all importers transact with loans. This means they want to pay back as soon as possible while acquiring less charges/interests etc both from the lenders end and from the storage side too. And then the gains would be inconsequential given your mate who sold @ market rates without hoarding would have turned over more products and sold more too.

Hoarding over 85k is not realistic. Maybe N3 and above. And never over long periods.

A lot of people seem to forget that NYSC members were instrumental to the success of our last elections, by far the freest since 99.

Besides that, the NYSC program should be restructured. People should be made to serve within the south or the north. If you come from SW, go to SE and vice versa. Same goes for north. Cause the way it stands, I think Northerners are the most beneficiaries of this NYSC tin. They get cheap labor to educate their kids and from what I know ther average core-northern school has a 60-70% makeup of youth corpers as teachers.

Other than this serving your country can also be a good thing. Its fun and really a time to relax, learn new things, make friends and such.

Great plan. Station dealers can't sensibly hoard products for even a single day caused they'd end up making just 85k x 35000 on a present stock assuming they sell up to a truck a day.

The only stumbling blocks I see are on the governments side. Paying reducing subsidies and the stress it might involve. Me I don't know sha but I feel some people somewhere will find a way to make mago mago out of the process.

Just tot of one. Would importers be paid as @ when their vessels get to the ports or as @ when they're cleared and products loaded into the the tank farms? The thiefs @ NNPC estimate 31 days demurrage per vessel, which means @ least a N2 loss just by waiting @ the ports alone.

Overall, its a sensibly plan sha. But whether enforceable in a country like Nigeria is another matter.

I wonder what those who were in support of GEJ occupyin his bed have to say.

Strike continues,

Nice plan but difficult to pull off in Nigeria. Here are potential bottlenecks:

1. I firmly believe the Nigerians masses won't be in support of this. Its going to be xtremely difficult explaining the benefits of such a system when the masses just want to do everything. They really don't want to be involved in anything more or less schools dat were once the standard but have been left to rot by corruption and negligence. The perfect question would be why can't your govt fix things?

2. The teachers unions, labors unions would be against for reasons in 1.

3. How do you keep track of each citizen? Do you just use mouth to give the shares of how exactly? I think there's going to be a really thin line between this and the government basically sayin you guys are on your own. Develop your schools yourself.

4. What if I don't want any shares? What if I want to sell my shares? Can they be sold? Thru what medium?

5. Residency issues. We are poor record keepers here. What happens if I change location etc.

I think the plans solid but instead of privatizing public schls, I suggest building schools such as these ground up using a community based approach. This way the fed and ststates only need to provide the legal backing and mayb some financial support in terms of grants and such.

The countries been @ a halt for the past 5 days and GEJ chose not to aTtend meetings to resolve things? What excuse did he give? Is he sick? Na wa o.

Same product goes for N45k @ slot. What's your catch?

I guess we have two in-govt cabals. Mr Adoke and Sen. David Mark. Both own and are vested in subsidy benefits as oil marketers.

We need a drastic change in this country. Otherwise the bondage continues till Jesus comes.

OP has done the best analysis so far. Truth is even the NNPC, PPPRA and Min of Petroleum aren't sure of what we consume internally on a yearly basis. Any calculations therefore are based on total consumption (subsidies paid for). The 35 - 55millions include smuggled fuel through Nigerias borders.

And how's fuel smuggled across our borders? I know that there are border communities like Ijofin etc in d Lagos/Ogun/benin republic axis wiv lots of stations on the Nigeria end. Guys from Neigboring countries buy in 50litre to 100litre drums (full tankers don't driver across the border like people seem to think). These drums are placed in buses or mini vans and are either driver across bus parts or loaded onto a boat (if there's a waterway). The business of selling petrol @ the borders is even more lucrative than selling in the main cities. If you lucky, an entire payload of 33,000 could be sold in 1 or 2 days. Average per day for city stations is 3 - 4 days. This is how Oando started (with a station in the bush) and so many others.

Truth is the subsidy isn't sustenable as the price differentials lead to an arbitraged that's xtremely profitable fueling smuggling.but Govt must clean up its house before askin us to suffer. The VPs office is planning to purchase HP desktops for 300k+ and HP scanners for 160k+. Its ridicilous xpenses like these dat we nEed to wad off.

@Playboy 19,

Read your comments, nice one. But if landing cost of PMS is N49, how come it sells for N160+ in other countries without a subsidy program?

@jmaine,

The importer and eventual fuel seller are almost always different entities (even under a major importer like AP or Total wiv fuel stations). I can further xplain if u want.

Transport covered by subsidy is for shipping costs and transport to the tank farms etc. But the person buyin the fuel @ the depot has to pay a haulage firm (or bear the costs himself if he has his own trucks) to have d fuel delivered to his station. This cost isn't covered by subsidy, it never was. Subsidy only covers importation to the fuel tanks.

When an importer importers, he takes it to his tank farm or a rented one. Collects him money and cleans mouth. Lol. From there he can either resell to one of the private depots or sell to NNPC. NNPC den takes the fuel to anyone of its depots nation wide and sells @ a price that varies between N55 to N60. So for this reason station dealers buy @ cheaper prices than the N65.

Coming down to the maths, I don't exactly know how the subsidy runs, as in if the govt pays for the full cost of the product (then handing it over to the nnpc to recoup some of the cost) or pays for difference above the N55 depot price (in this case N141 - N55 or the full N141 and then the nnpc gets the N55 back for the govt after selling the fuel.

During the subsidy, fuel doesn't sell for N65 at the depots. That N65 is just the pump price (price for the stations to sell). If you're a station dealer you could buy from an NNPC depot for around N55 or thereabout. You get N10. Remove about N3 for transport and maybe another N2 for expenses and the rest is yours.

He didn't necessarily have to import fuel to sell @ N65 otherwise all independent marketers would be importers as well which isn't the case.

I hope this xplains it.

What's the meaning of trying to use force? Its either they've began using d force or not.

In any case unruly protesters wud be arrested. I don't see d police interferin in peaceful protests. Hopefully.

ypzilanti:
Personally, my suggestion is that government should shave about N30 off the subsidy amount and demonstrate its ability by using the saved amount to lay railway tracks from the South West of Nigeria to the South East of Nigeria. Also do same from North West of Nigeria to North East. This can be finished within two years.

Government should then lease the use of the tracks to a reputable firm for a lease period of 20 years and recoup all the money spent on the tracks. See there? It did not cost a thing!

Simultaneously, offer bank guarantees to reputable companies that want to build refineries in Nigeria (only companies that have built same in other countries) sign MOUs to the effect that subsidy will be removed within two years time. To convince them further pledge to buy all refined products at prevailing market rate where subsidy is not removed. In two years come back to the Nigerian people and present your achievement, announce other great projects and remove the remaining subsidy.

Kindly repost the idea if you agree, or tell our president if you have his ear, before he runs the country into a ditch.

makes a lot of sense.

To show you useless our Nigerian media people are, how come no one has been able to email these politicians and ask intelligent questions such as these. Our politicians seem to treat media men like rats disturbing them, but maybe it's the impression they've created for themselves.

SLS answering a young nigerian girl via BB shows he isn't as busy (as pa CBN gov) as the public thinks and this media and radio talk show hosts instead of bringing  illitrates and flamebaiters can actually key into such avenues on a professional level.