funshint: I see Obi winning only 14 states convincely. Atiku will win about 5 states while APC will win atleast 18 states convincely. If a run-off occurs most likely between APC and LP, APC will win because of those that vote for Atiku or Kwankwaso will vote for APC this time. It's a win for APC anyhow it is.
Tinubu cannot win 18 states convincingly, the only person with the ability to win the highest number of states if Obi. Tinubu cannot win any core north state unless Atiku is not on the ballot, and to make it worse he will be sharing his votes with Atiku and BAT. Northern Muslims won't vote a BAT with a pastor wife, Christian children and cannot recite Islamic prayers correctly, Obi's advantage is his leveraging on northern Christian votes which is he is doing soundly by staging campaigns in city capitals and capitals of christian zones like Kafanchan, Idah, Wukari Etc
OGHENAOGIE: what you wrote shows you don't understand Nigerian politics you really think labour ll get votes cos Obi is junkeetin churches... U are naive anyway... Next month no far sha Ina go learn... It's Party that matters and APC PDP are the parties that ll dominate votes take it or leave it...
Go and check election results from 1979 till now, I have them on my phone. Northern Christians do not vote along with the Muslim north, that dream you guys have of a United northern votes is false. For instance, in 2019, Atiku won only christian dominated areas while Buhari won Muslim areas. Go and check.
OGHENAOGIE: you guys are funny sha Abuja that's a core PDP strong hold... Taraba too... Benue too... These States labour no even get nass candidates... Ina go cry next month Sha cos labour ll lose flat...
Those are not PDP strongholds, those places are OPPOSITION strongholds. They always vote along with the south while other northern states vote along with half of Yoruba land. Mind you, those places are mostly dominated by christians, southern non-indigenes and very enlightenee Nigerians who generally hate to vote along with the Muslim north.
MoneySEASON: Forget, if this man has aligned with Peter Obi to be his Vice, The presidential race would've been concluded already.
But, it is what it is.
Peter Obi will still win by God's grace.
Not true, his followers will never vote an Igbo man, it's better he is contesting differently, let him help us divide northern votes into useless bits. We that are from the north know these people behave, rather than vote Obi most of them will prefer not to vote.
CaptainAyub: Close your mouth oga,u de talk too much. From Maraba,Nyanya,1 man village ,Ado ,Masaka,1 man Village,Gidan Zakara etc, that small axis has the highest voting block in Nasarawa state and they will all vote Peter Obi. The illiterate Keffi indigenes will vote Kwankwaso, Atiku ,Tinubu and Obi in that order but the literate ones plus the huge population of educated staff and families of FMC Keffi and Nasarawa state University will vote Obi first b4 any other candidate. Akwanga axis,the votes will be shared equally b/w Obi,Atiku and Tinubu in that order. Don't know much about Lafia axis but judging from the attendance to Obi's rallies ,he will also do well there. NOTE:Buhari and his janjaweeed squad won Nasarawa state for the 1st time in 2019,Nas has always voted alongside the Christian south. NOTE:Been living/working in Nas state 9yrs now.
jumper524: una go just dey upper iweka dey analyse things when them give una for media. Go plateau make you see whether them consider labour party sef, go those villages. Apart from Jo's Town nothing. Nasarawa no go there, obi supporters Don go back to pdp as e be say the guy hope Don drop kpata kpata. Who know una for even lafia or keffi? Make una go sidon. Una think say Northern christains foolish to the core nah. That's why you dey call stares when den get reasonable number and you think say Bauchi zuru people follow. People when no even send una.
I live in Keffi, I have lived in Jalingo, Makurdi, Lokoja etc. I can tell you with 100% certainty that Obi will win Benue, Taraba, Abuja, Plateau, Southern Kaduna and pretty much everywhere Christians dominate. You guys seem to have forgotten that northern Christians play religious politics and always vote any candidate the SS and SE massively supports. This election is going to be a referendum between christian votes going mainly to a single candidate (Obi) versus Muslim votes divided by there major candidates (Atiku, BAT and Kwankwaso), go and do your calculations and see whether a divided Muslim vote can win presidential election in Nigeria.
[quote author=Geopex post=120139520][/quote]Your analysis is too poor. PDP has never won Kano, it only gets very few votes there. Kano is one of the regions APC has been using to win elections, right now everyone believes Kwankwaso will win this region by a landslide, so tell me how it affects PDP that has never won it. PDP always perfroms poorly in the north west while APC wins it by a landslide, Kwankwaso is now pulling his weight heavily there meaning he is taking votes from APC. Think about it again, it is APC that is losing.
Reader530: Imams are preaching all over the north that: 1. Tinubu is not a complete Muslim and his vice is Kanuri (minority tribe) amidst Hausa&Fulanis. 2. Voting Kwankwaso is a waste of vote. Frankly speaking, Tinubu will win Borno and Yobe only in the north. Kwankwaso will get 45% in Kano, Atiku 40% and Tinubu 12%. Even in Kano, many people agree that Voting Kwankwasiyya is a waste. Atiku will win north central because most people in searching for Reps and senators in PDP may vote for Atiku. I am North Eastern OBIdient but lack of structures and support to create awareness to our people reduce the number of our followers. I am saying nothing but the truth as North stands. Even in Yobe rally for APC that was held at Stadium along Maiduguri road, Damaturu was not full like Buhari's campaign in previous years. Thanks
Atiku cannot win this our north central, Obi is too strong here. Already Benue and Plateau will go Obi's way at least 85%! The christians and even Muslims here aren't too religious and are still rooting for Obi. In fact Tinubu is likely to come second here and Atiku third.
Donjazet2: This man i s not saying anything. He says dont vote along ethnic or religious lines and also says vote people that know the lay of the land.
Southern Kaduna leans more towards Obi because of religious inclination, some would also lean towards atiku because of tribal affiliations, then Tinubu definitely does not know the "lay of the land" so who exactly is he leaning towards?
Atiku's tribe ,the Fulanis, are not reagrded ad indigenes of Southern Kaduna.
The millions of Almajaris who make up the single largest voting block in Africa and the world at large are not on social media. They do not know if Obi exist. The millions of Almajiris, fulanis and aboki will rather vote a stone than to vote Nyamuri
The same 14 APC northern aboki governors insisted that the presidency must come down to south through JAGABAN the city Boy and SHETTIMA the Golden boy
Those millions of almajiris have the strong candidates and they will end up wasting their among those three.
Na wa o. This is the exact type of job offer an old class mate posted in our WhatsApp group the other day, I almost fell for it. The bill was 500k and he said he had already paid but was waiting to resume, latter he said the offer was no longer available. It was in PH.
Slurity: Except for a very rare cases, if you graduate with 3rd class degree in Nigeria, just go and learn another business or you further your study to get a second degree, my over 10 years of job seeking and helping companies to recruit clearly point to the fact that 3rd class has less than 30% chance of getting invitations for interview and less than 10% chance of beating other competitors, people already form an opinion about them before even hearing them out.
I graduated with 3rd class but just got another degree (2¹) in 2021, I'm still searching for a job though. I will appreciate if you can be of help.
ericmaestro: I finished with a third class too but currently work for one of the best fintechs in nigeria with a good pay( though it wasn't an easy journey). There are some things I'll like to share with u that will help you get a good job..drop your whatsapp number so I can chat u
garfield1: It is a strong indicator sir.it is wider than anap/noi polls and other biased mushroom polls.it analyses what millions are doing unlike what anap does by analysing few thousands
ANAP is a direct poll on who voters want, this one here just tells you who was searched, it doesn't tell you why the search was carried out. I hope you know that criminals have more searches than innocent persons?
braveboi4life: Am an obedient, besides the analysis Obi inability to penetrate the core North with block vote is a great disadvantage, Emikokan has the brightest chance among all contenders,if this election goes into a run off, its Atiku for a grab, infact most kwankaso and Obi supporters will tilt to him naturally. 2023 will be interesting!!!! Whoever wins Nigeria will still be in a deeper shit May God help us
Nobody needs northern votes to win this time around, the Muslim north has three major candidates dividing their votes this time around making it very useless in shifting the election results. If you divide northern Kaduna into three and give southern Kaduna to Obi you will see that Obi has already won that state. You guys should note that Christian northerners are very many and they never vote along with the rest of the north, instead northern Christians always vote along with the south east and south south. Go and check previous election results, the Christian north has been voting along with the SE/SS since 1979 and they have won with that demographic many times. They made OBJ, GEJ, Yar Adua and others president when the Muslim north kept failing with Buhari and others.
Don't quote me unnecessarily please, just think, can the set of Nigerians that voted buhari twice, bloody twice, vote Obi? I rather think not.
With democracy in Nigeria we can only get to chose between the Bad and the worst, because we have a huge population of bad and worst people
APC = worst, PDP = Bad..
Say no to rookies and drug barons Vote Atiku
Why would I call you IPOB, there's only one thing I'm sure Atiku can and will handle better, our diversity. That's the only singular reason I prefer him. Either APC or PDP the countries economy will be shit, corruption will continue, insecurity will remain, but let this tribal and religious hostility and prejudice be reduced..
The set of Nigerians that voted PMB now have three candidates in BAT, Atiku and Kwankeaso to divide their votes. PMB'S votes divided by three cannot win a national election in Nigeria.
TemmyT002: Atiku should just surrender this wasteful ambition and allow Obi to beat APC hands down.
If Atiku steps down BAT will win handsomely because the north will divert most of Atiku's votes to him. Please don't say that prayer again. Obi's best chance is when Atiku, Kwankwaso and BAT are on the ballot to scatter and destroy northern Muslim votes into small useless pieces.
livinbygrace: The greatest mistake Obi made is choosing someone like this guy in the North.He should have chosen a radical Islamic scholar in the North and the election would have been a work over.He is certain of Winnng 11 states in the south,while getting at least 35% from SW ,chosing a strong radical Islamic scholar in the north would have secured him 25% in some northern states. In politics you use fire for fire and not that gentle man approach .That’s why Jagaban is well respected and regarded as a good strategist.
Which is 25% in some northern states? The north is divided and plays religious politics, the Muslims don't the same person Christians vote. The way Obi is playing his politics in the north he will win all Christian dominated states in the north (Taraba, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Abuja, and get more than 25% in Christian dominated zones (Kaduna north, Gombe South, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kwara) etc.
soojar: Do you even know the states that make up the NC? Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau and FCT
Benue is the only state APC will struggle, they will win Kwara and Kogi with at least 60%, Niger and Nasarawa with at least 45%. They wont win Plateau and FCT but they will get significant votes there not less than 30%
I don't know what you mean by core North, is it Bornu that has Shettima on the ballot or Katsina of Buhari, or Kaduna of El-Rufai or even Kano (where the votes will be shared in good measure between Kwankwaso and Ganduje and Atiku)
I agree that South need to be united to be able to call the bluff of the North but we all know that's not going to happen. So it all boils down to who can strike the best deal with the political gladiators especially from the North.
We learn everyday.
Quit smoking shit, BAT cannot win any state in this our north central. He is a hated figure here. To make it worse for him, northern Muslims only vote northern muslims. He will struggle to get good votes in the entire north
chinchum: Sure. Even if Obi gets 100% of votes in SE and SS, he is condemned for failure on the constitutional requirement.
He can not achieve at least 25 % in 24 states. There are 17 states in the South and 19 states in the North. While it is certain that Obi will not get 25% in some SW states, let me assume by some miracle he achieves that. Can someone tell me 7 states obi will achieve at least 25% in the North? election against 2 gladiators PDP and APC.
If Obi was not on the ballot, there would have been a strong likelihood that Buhari will be handing over to another Fulani man.
25% is very sure for Obi in Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Abuja, Taraba, Benue, Kaduna and Gombe. It is a strong possibility in Bauchi and Adamawa.
oluseyiforjesus: BIU I wish someone can pronounce dat name correctly for me
Biu = bi + u = Two syllables 'Bi' pronounced same as in biscuit, belittle, befriend,bemoan. 'u' pronounced same way as sentences like you win, you get it, you have etc.
Trinitycian: Bro, 30% much. The reality I see here is not even close to the propaganda on the media. Maybe the reason Tinubu supporters scarce in KD is cos Yoruba Muslims are scare, that's my thought at this point cos it's strange.
For 2 months I never still see 1 Tinubu supporter! And I am not exaggerating!
Are you in Kuduna north or south? Tinubu should have some presence in Kaduna north but I doubt he will get a single vote from any Christian in Kaduna south.
Ddokie: You Dey mind these bat boys? The problem an average Tinubu supporter has is stupidity. The will never face reality.
I am a full blown PO supporter, but the permutations currently favor AA, because he is the only one who has a large natural following from the Muslim North, and possible following from the SE/SS block due to party influence, bearing in mind our people down south can be very politically naive a-times. He needs just about 30% of the votes from the SE/Ss block to sail through. I genuinely hope and pray our people can have sense and ensure he doesn’t get it. If he does, the game is up.
But as for these BATs, like afamed, they should wake up. Tinubu is not in this elections.
In 2019, I had known months to the elections that AA wasn’t going to get sufficient votes from the north. How? I sampled opinions of a lot of northerners on Lagos streets, and hardly any of them was willing to vote AA. Nothing wen I no take beg this people. for where? All stuck on Buhari.
Today, it’s all about AA for most of the many I have asked. Then the rest is for Kwankwaso. Out of about 100, less than 5 are willing to vote Tinubu. And whatever they say here is a reflection of the home front.
The gateman opposite my house is from Bornu. He said APCs greatest mistake was taking BAT instead of Osinbajo, and worse still was him selecting shettima.
As it stands, the best APC structure can help Tinubu pull from the north can’t surpass 20-30% of the APC states. Na that one e go take win elections?
No part of the muslim.north votes Atiku in 2019 though, all the LGAs he win in the north are those dominated by Christians. I have verified it, you can do the same.
3LACK: 2015/2019 Buhari would defeat any northerner even at his polling unit...the thing you should ask yourself now is can Tinubu or Obi do the same...its a big NO, Atiku has always been second in the north, and Buhari knows no Fulani/Hausa man would leave his own under any party to vote for a Yoruba or an igbo man that's why he is distancing himself from Tinubu and saying he won't support any candidate.
In 2019 Atiku only won two northern states, those states are dominated by Christians. Don't think he will win those places this time around, Peter Obi is taking all Atiku's votes in the Christian north while Atiku's takes over Buhari's Muslim votes in the same area. Tinubu is the only loser here. Atiku is not stressing himself bout wike or anyone because he knows even with more APC governors in the north he's getting more than 80% and maybe 40% in the south which would see him cruise to Victory.
Remember Atiku lost to Buhari in an election as the incumbent with only 2mill votes. Tinubu and Obi na beans
dryakson: I mistakely stepped on a fetish thing with ₦10, 12 peppers, colanut and a mini clay pot while on my way to the mosque at about 5:15am. The listed items were carefully arranged on the ₦10 note before stepping on it. What could that be? NOTE: It's in the north, and a Muslim dominated place. So, I threw the cola and the mini clay pot away and burt the ₦10. Am I in trouble?
onojaintegrity: Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, Hon. Anthony Edogbo, Nigeria's youngest appointee to a state governor and National Coordinator of one of the country's largest support group, Bello Ambassadors Network (BAN) has released a video of Yahaya Bello's projects and programs in Kogi State.
andyanders: Same question I'm asking. Who was at the scene of the crime? Was there a cctv at the scene of the crime to pick the plate number of the car? Can hit and run driver turn himself in just like that after that long in Nigeria?
In another story, it was stated that his wife was contacted to pay #100 mill or her husband would be killed and here we are with a sad news. May his soul RIP
His phone was obviously traced to the driver who claims he just threw it away.
andyanders: My question now is ; how was the police able to found out that he was responsible since it was hit and run?
In another post, it was stated that his wife was contacted to pay #100 mill..
The story is not adding up.
He was likely traced through the phone, very simple case. Dead body was in mortuary for a month and no one could identify it, after tracing the phone to the driver, the driver confessed he killed the owner around Mabushi, the police then goes to all the hospital mortuaries around there to search for him using the date he went missing, of course they will easily trace the dead body. Simple case!
Politics › Re: In A Fair Presidential Election, Obi Will Get 25% In Over 24 States — Group by Junior66(m): 9:56am On Jan 23, 2023
